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Perhaps no MLB rookie in recent memory has received more hype even before he played a major-league game than Bryce Harper. 

Appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated at the age of 16 had a lot to do with that. The copious amounts of eye black smeared on his cheeks didn’t earn him much admiration. Nor did the brash attitude that compelled him to blow a kiss at a pitcher after hitting a home run in Single-A ball. 

After one year of minor-league ball, during which he progressed to Double-A Hagerstown, the hope was that Harper would break spring training with the Washington Nationals. But Harper was sent to Triple-A Syracuse, primarily so he could learn to play center field. Everyone thought it was only a matter of time before he was called up, however. 

At the end of April, the inevitable happened. The Nationals were desperate for offense—any offense—from their outfield and called up the 19-year-old Harper.

It seemed like a terribly desperate move by Nats general manager Mike Rizzo at the time. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Harper was only hitting .243 with one home run in 84 plate appearances. Was Rizzo buying into the hype too? 

Yet Harper never looked overwhelmed by major-league competition, never seemed like he was overmatched. He hit .271 with an .860 OPS, four home runs and 10 RBI in May. 

Controversy also seemed to swarm toward him like ants toward spilled soda.

Cole Hamels plunked him with a pitch in early May, admitting that he did it to take the rookie down a notch in a “welcome to the big leagues, kid” moment.

Just over a month later, a Toronto radio reporter asked Harper if he might enjoy a postgame adult beverage on the town since he was of legal drinking age in Canada. Resenting the attempt to get him in trouble, Harper’s response—”That’s a clown question, bro”—became an Internet meme almost instantly. 

Soon thereafter, the Nats rookie outfielder was a surprise choice for the National League All-Star team, named as a replacement for the injured Giancarlo Stanton. Harper became the youngest position player to ever make an All-Star team. The hype machine continued to churn. 

Despite hitting the skids in July and August, Harper continued to receive more attention than his fellow NL rookies, something that irked many fans. Perhaps those fans didn’t like Harper to begin with. But with other first-year players like Wade Miley, Todd Frazier and Wilin Rosario having strong seasons, the assertion that Harper was receiving unwarranted hype had some merit to it. 

Harper, however, came back strong in September to help lead the Nationals’ charge to a playoff spot and NL East title. During the season’s final full month, the rookie hit .330/.402/.651 with eight doubles, seven homers and 14 RBI. It was his easily his best monthly performance of the season and likely put him back into strong consideration for the NL Rookie of the Year award. 

The Harper hype machine is once again running strong. But how much momentum could it gain now that he and the Nationals will be in the playoffs? More reporters and broadcaster will be covering a far smaller number of teams. Each postseason game is nationally televised. Harper is about to walk onto baseball’s biggest stage. 

How will Harper handle the increased attention and scrutiny? It’s not going to faze him. He fits right in because he acts like he belongs. Call him up to the majors? No biggie. Send him to the All-Star Game? There he is.

Harper believes he belongs with the top players in MLB. Harper believes he should be competing for a World Series championship because that’s what the best players do. The lights won’t be too bright. He’s going to thrive in the postseason.

Depending on how the Nationals finish the season and who wins the wild-card playoff, they could face either the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants. Harper has hit well against each of those teams.

In 76 plate appearances vs. the Braves, the rookie compiled an .816 OPS with four home runs and five RBI. Against the Cardinals, he batted .429 with a 1.284 OPS with two homers and six RBI in 31 PAs. If the Nats face the Giants, Harper carries a .286 average and .703 OPS from 30 PAs into that playoff series. 

Three weeks ago, I wrote that Harper was poised for an Andruw Jones-like breakout. In 1996, a 19-year-old Jones served notice to MLB and the sports-watching public that he was going to be an emerging force in baseball for years to come. 

Harper appears to be getting better later in the year when the games matter more to playoff contenders. The grind of the long major-league season likely wore him down in July and August. But maybe he was also waiting for the stakes to get higher during his first pennant race. Now Harper will be in the playoffs where every game is important. 

If you thought Harper was hyped before, wait until a contingent of fans who haven’t watched baseball until the playoffs see him in action. Wait until every major newspaper and sports website who sent writers to cover Harper write features on him.

And if he makes a big impact for the Nationals, watch out. Because the hype won’t matter anymore. Harper will be perceived as a legitimate star, not just a product of excessive media attention. 

If you’re already sick of Harper, you may want to avoid the Nationals’ playoff games. But don’t do that, because you might deprive yourself of seeing something special. 

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The San Francisco Giants await the No. 2 seed in the National League playoffs for their first-round divisional series.

Battling for that top seed are the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds, who both have a 96-64 record as of Oct. 2. The team that finishes with the best record in the league will play the winner of the one-game wild-card playoff in one NLDS. The runner-up will face the Giants, who are established as the NL’s No. 3 seed.

So as the Giants wait to find out who their NLDS opponent will be (while playing their final two games of the regular season), are they secretly hoping for one team over another? Of course, none of the players nor manager Bruce Bochy will say who they prefer to play. They’re just happy to be there, taking it one game at a time and all that.

However, we think the Giants want to face the Reds in the NLDS rather than the Nationals. It’s not just because San Francisco went 3-4 against the Reds and 1-5 versus the Nats. Cincinnati looks like a better matchup for San Francisco for the following reasons.

All statistics cited here are from Baseball-Reference.

Home Sweet Home

Playing at Great American Ball Park (GABP) should make any opposing pitching staff nervous, especially for fly-ball pitchers like Matt Cain.

But Cain will be pitching in Game 1 at AT&T Park, so that won’t be an issue. Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong keep the ball on the ground enough to pitch successfully in the Reds’ home ballpark.

Should the Giants be worried if Cain has to pitch Game 5 in Cincinnati? His record at GABP is 2-2 with a 3.44 ERA in five starts, so he should be alright.

This season, the Giants went 1-2 at Cincinnati while splitting four games with the Reds in San Francisco. That doesn’t provide much to draw a conclusion from, but the Giants will host the first two games of the NLDS in this year’s one-time postseason format. If they can win both of those, only one win is needed in Cincinnati.

The Giants lost all three of their games at Nationals Park this season and went 1-2 against the Nats at AT&T Park.

Lincecum was bombed by the Nationals in D.C. He lasted only 3.1 innings while giving up eight runs (seven earned) and nine hits. Madison Bumgarner also was lit up, allowing seven runs and nine hits in five innings.

Best for the Giants to avoid the nation’s capital during the postseason.

Pitching More Pleasant vs. Reds

With sluggers such as Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the perception might be that the Reds have a more powerful lineup than the Nationals.

Yet Cincinnati is ninth in the NL in team runs scored and eighth in team batting average. The Nationals are fifth in runs scored and fourth in batting average.

Giants pitchers also had more success individually versus the Reds this season.

Bumgarner pitched a complete-game shutout on June 28, holding Cincinnati to one hit while striking out eight batters. In two starts against the Reds, Zito allowed two runs in 12 innings, resulting in a 1.50 ERA.

Vogelsong finished with a 4.50 ERA versus Cincinnati in two starts, allowing four runs in six innings at GABP but only two over seven innings at AT&T Park. Cain also had moderate success facing the Reds, compiling a 5.54 ERA in two starts. Interestingly, he pitched worse in San Francisco than in Cincinnati.

How did Giants pitchers do against the Nationals?

As mentioned above, Bumgarner and Lincecum were bombed in their respective starts at Nationals Park.

However, Bumgarner fared much better at AT&T Park on Aug. 14, where he held the Nats to one run over nine innings. But Lincecum didn’t have improved results in his home ballpark, allowing four runs and eight hits in four innings.

Also getting pounded like pizza dough was Vogelsong, who lasted only 2.2 innings on Aug. 13. He allowed eight runs and nine hits, resulting in a 27.00 ERA.

More Valuable MVP

Two of the Giants’ best run-producers have had more success against the Nationals.

Pablo Sandoval is batting .444 with a 1.198 OPS in 21 plate appearances versus Washington, but hit .240 with a .785 OPS in 29 PAs against the Reds. Hunter Pence didn’t face the Reds this year, but batted .281/.395/.594 with three home runs and six RBI against Washington.

In 23 PAs against the Nats, Buster Posey is batting .167 with a .570 OPS and only one RBI. The likely (at least in this view) NL MVP has been more valuable versus the Reds, batting .333/.429/.542 with a home run and four RBI.

Others to watch out for in a series with the Reds include Brandon Belt. The Giants first baseman has a .400/.429/.550 slash average in 21 plate appearances. Angel Pagan has an .829 OPS against Cincinnati with two homers and six RBI in 29 PAs.

Watch Out for Reds Pitching

Cincinnati isn’t a perfect playoff pairing for the Giants, of course. One reason San Francisco might not want to face the Reds is because their starting pitchers have been very effective against the Giants lineup.

In his lone start vs. San Francisco this season, Johnny Cueto allowed two earned runs in six innings. However, he also issued an uncharacteristic four walks.

Homer Bailey also allowed two earned runs when he faced the Giants, pitching 6.1 innings with six strikeouts. Bronson Arroyo pitched against San Francisco twice, allowing just three earned runs over 11 innings despite giving up 16 hits.

But the Reds pitcher who’s done the best against the Giants is Mat Latos, dating back to his days with the San Diego Padres. In 11 career starts versus San Francisco, he has a 4-3 record and 2.19 ERA. Latos was especially strong this season, going 2-0 while allowing one run and six hits in 16 innings.

Meanwhile, the Giants were able to rough up Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler on the Nationals staff. Jackson allowed four runs over 5.2 innings in his outing while Detwiler gave up three runs and 11 hits in five innings.

Despite their performance against the Reds’ starting pitching, the overall matchups favor the Giants—especially in a five-game series. Though they won’t admit it, there is probably some rooting in that clubhouse for the Nationals to finish with the NL’s best record.

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Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein beat out his former team in one key acquisition last offseason when he hired Dale Sveum to be his manager.

Sveum was reportedly the preferred choice of Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, but ownership (particularly team president Larry Lucchino) pushed to bring in Bobby Valentine. 

Valentine is on his way to getting fired after his first season in Boston, but Sveum looks like he’ll be sticking around for a while with the Cubs. Epstein apparently views as him as a long-term solution to provide some stability in the dugout during his rebuilding project.

But is Sveum really the best guy for such a job? Has he shown enough in his first season with the Cubs to warrant that sort of commitment from the front office? What is it about Sveum that makes him the right fit for what the Cubs are trying to do over the next few years?

Leading a 100-loss team isn’t the most impressive start to Sveum‘s managerial career. (The Cubs have 98 losses as of Sept. 27 with five games remaining.) But this season was always more about development and adjusting the roster to accommodate prospects like Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson.

Established veterans like Ryan Dempster, Geovany Soto and Paul Maholm were going to be traded for young talent that could help build the pitching depth in the minor leagues. Had Epstein been able to trade Carlos Marmol, Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano, those three players would have gone as well.

So, it’s obviously unfair to judge Sveum on wins and losses when the Cubs weren’t going to field a team that was competitive in the NL Central.

That’s why a veteran manager like Terry Francona wouldn’t have been well-suited for this job. (It’s also why he shouldn’t become the manager of the Cleveland Indians, in my opinion.) The Cubs needed someone who could grow into the position as his team developed into a major league competitor. 

Sveum earned his major league bona fides as a coach with the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers, initially as a third-base coach but also as a bench and hitting coach. Sveum is familiar with most roles on a major league coaching staff.

However, he was best suited for this job because of his background in development. Perhaps the most important item on his resume in the Cubs’ view was his three-year tenure as manager of the Double-A Altoona Curve in the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ organization.

Players at the Double-A level are typically the most talented in a team’s minor league system, the prospects projected to be future major leaguers. That put Sveum in position to help get the team’s young players ready to contribute at the big-league level. It was more important for him to develop the Pirates’ top prospects than win games in the Eastern League.

Sveum‘s experience in player development has been especially utilized during the final months of this season as the Cubs attempt to determine which players are keepers and what holes need to be filled on on next year’s team. 

One example of that has been Sveum‘s handling of third baseman Josh Vitters. Vitters‘ defense has been so poor that he didn’t warrant playing time. Some managers might write Vitters off and never let him anywhere near the field again. Others might show too much patience and keep Vitters out there to continually make mistakes, letting his confidence erode and hurt the team’s ability to win games.

Sveum realizes it’s important for Vitters to be held accountable for his play, yet he’s still received enough plate appearances to get a feel for major league pitching and develop as a hitter. While Vitters hasn’t hit enough to compensate for his poor glove, Sveum is giving him enough of an opportunity that his time in the majors hasn’t been wasted. 

A similar approach has been taken with shortstop Starlin Castro. Castro has become infamous for spacing out on the field, relying on his physical talents rather than focusing on the game at hand. Sveum has benched Castro at times to wake him up and let him know that sort of play isn’t acceptable. (Veterans such as Soriano have also helped out in mentoring Castro.) 

As the season nears its end, Sveum is still staying on Castro, not letting him fall into bad habits. For instance, as ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla reports, Sveum wants Castro to stop playing at the edge of the grass, believing that his arm is strong enough to make up for not charging a ground ball. That can be the difference between an out and a hit, especially against good baserunners. 

Speaking of base running, Sveum has seen enough mistakes from his players—notably Dave Sappelt and Joe Mather, recently—in that department that he’s already thinking about the drills he and his coaching staff will employ during spring training next year. 

The Cubs won’t get better simply through development. Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer have to bring in some outside help to boost the talent level on the roster, especially on the pitching staff. The front office has made it known that it intends to pursue free-agent pitching in the offseason. 

That has to be reassuring to Sveum, who knows he can concentrate on teaching and development, while Epstein and Hoyer look at filling key holes with some veteran stopgaps. This is another indication that the front office believes in Sveum and will give him the help he needs to succeed. 

It’s too soon to say for certain whether or not Sveum is a good major league manager. He just doesn’t have a competitive product to manage on the field. But he was a smart hire by the Cubs because of his development background and experience with all facets of an MLB coaching staff. He’s the right guy for a team that will need a few years to build itself into a potential contender. 

As Cherington gets ready to conduct another managerial search in Boston, he surely still laments the one that got away and was snapped up by his old boss. That’s one instance in which Epstein got to stick it to his old team. 

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The New York Yankees have won seven of their last 10 games as they try to shake the Baltimore Orioles for an AL East title. 

Though the Wild Card would seem to be a safety net, as it has been for the AL East runner-up for several seasons, MLB‘s new postseason format makes it important to win a division. The wild-card teams have to face each other in a one-game playoff.

The Yankees surely don’t want any part of that. Additionally, they can still win the top seed in the AL, meaning they would play the Wild Card in the ALDS. 

But the Yanks are in this position largely because they haven’t played that well in September. More specifically, several of their star players have struggled over the past month.

For the Yankees to beat out the Orioles in the AL East and succeed in the playoffs, they will need the following five players to improve their performance. 

All statistics cited are current as of Sept. 29.

Begin Slideshow

If the starting rotations for this year’s National League playoff teams were ranked one through five, it’s likely that the Cincinnati Reds would be at the bottom.

But after Homer Bailey pitched a no-hitter on Friday night (Sept. 28) against the Pittsburgh Pirates, perhaps, those rankings should be reshuffled.

(This is presuming that the St. Louis Cardinals win the second NL wild-card spot since they have a three-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers.) 

The Reds are battling the Washington Nationals for the best record in the NL during the final days of the regular season. One of the reasons Cincinnati has taken a step up into the league’s elite is because Bailey is developing into the pitcher envisioned when he was selected No. 7 overall in the 2004 draft. 

Going into Friday’s game, Bailey had a 12-10 record and 3.92 ERA this season. Those are the most wins he’s earned in his six-year major league career, and that is the best ERA he’s posted. Bailey has also thrown more innings and racked up more strikeouts this season than he ever has before. 

That gives the Reds a solid starting three to throw at the opposition in any series this postseason.

Johnny Cueto has been one of the best starting pitchers in the NL this year, ranking among the league leaders in ERA (currently fifth with a 2.83 mark) and earning consideration as a Cy Young Award candidate until the very end of the season. 

Mat Latos has been excellent since the All-Star break, compiling a 2.89 ERA in 15 starts. He’s performing like the pitcher the Reds hoped they were getting when they traded Edinson Volquez along with top prospects Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to the San Diego Padres for him. 

Perhaps, Bronson Arroyo is perceived as Cincinnati’s No. 3 starter based on experience (13 major league seasons) and tenure (seven years with the Reds). He’s had a fine season, going 12-9 with a 3.71 ERA. 

But doesn’t Dusty Baker have to consider making Bailey his third starter during the postseason? In what could be a pivotal Game 3 in a playoff series, wouldn’t he want a pitcher who can shut down the opposition? 

Yes, Bailey held the Pittsburgh Pirates without a hit. As a team, the Pirates have one of the lowest run and hit totals in the NL. They’re near the bottom in team batting average. This is exactly the sort of team a good pitcher should shut down, and Bailey did exactly that.

(In addition, Bailey has been outstanding at PNC Park, compiling a 4-0 record and 1.75 ERA in five career starts. Maybe throwing a no-hitter in Pittsburgh was inevitable.) 

Bailey pitched his no-hitter under rather harrowing circumstances as well. As mentioned, the Reds are trying to beat out the Nationals for the best record in the NL, so every win at this point is crucial. But, Bailey also didn’t have any wiggle room on Friday.

A.J. Burnett was pitching almost as well for the Pirates, holding Cincinnati to one run over eight innings. The Reds got their lone run in the first inning, so Burnett held them scoreless—and to five hits—in his seven subsequent frames. 

Though pitching in a 1-0 game would seemingly make the task of throwing a no-hitter even more nerve-wracking, perhaps, it also helps to sharpen focus because any mistake could make the difference in the game. It’s interesting that of the seven no-hitters thrown this season, three of them had a score of 1-0. 

Bailey is pitching his best baseball as the Reds surge into the playoffs. In September, he has a 2.52 ERA, striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. Both are the best marks he’s had during any month this season. 

So, does the guy who pitched the no-hitter line up as the third or fourth starter for the Reds in the playoffs?

A postseason rotation of Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Arroyo matches up pretty well against any potential opponent in the NLDS. That foursome should hold its own in any subsequent playoff series as well.

We haven’t even mentioned the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati relievers have a collective 2.66 ERA, the best in MLB, led by the spectacular Aroldis Chapman with his 1.55 ERA and rate of 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings. 

(By the way, if you still had any questions as to whether or not pitching matters, five of the top six pitching staffs in the NL are going to be in the playoffs. The sixth team, the Dodgers, is still alive for a wild-card spot, too.)

The tendency is to view the Nationals and San Francisco Giants as the best starting rotations going into the playoffs. Perhaps, the Atlanta Braves are regarded highly too, thanks to the performance of Kris Medlen.

But, the Reds’ starting pitchers should not be underestimated. Bailey’s no-hitter may have just ensured that they won’t be.

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With their 4-3 win over the Miami Marlins on Tuesday (Sept. 25), the Atlanta Braves clinched a wild-card playoff spot in the NL. 

The Braves have a shot at catching the Washington Nationals for the NL East title with a 4.5-game deficit, but with eight games remaining in the regular season, that’s not likely to happen.

Atlanta thus awaits the second NL Wild Card and will face that team in a one-game playoff on Oct. 5. It appears that team will be the St. Louis Cardinals, though the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are 3.5 games behind and still have a shot. 

The lineup and rotation that Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has employed during the season’s second half has worked wonderfully. Atlanta is 15-7 thus far through September, so the skipper probably isn’t going to mess with what’s clearly working well. 

Having said that, here’s how the Braves roster will probably line up once the postseason begins. 

One note: Other postseason roster prediction articles that you’ll see on B/R also include a “Position Battles” slide. I didn’t write one for the Braves because I don’t feel there really is a position battle.

All eight spots on the field are spoken for, and the competitions that might exist are for bench spots, which were mentioned in those particular slides. 

All statistics cited were current before play began on Sept. 25.

Begin Slideshow

The New York Yankees surely hoped Andy Pettitte would return to become a key part of their starting rotation once he recovered from a broken leg. 

But even the Yanks—and perhaps Pettitte himself—have to be surprised by the results of his first two starts since being activated from the disabled list. Pettitte hasn’t allowed a run over 11 innings, giving up 11 hits and three walks while striking out six batters.

Yes, Pettitte faced the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins in those two appearances, both last place teams (or near last, in the Twins’ case) in their respective divisions. However, the Blue Jays and Twins are each in the middle third of the MLB in runs scored. It’s not like Pettitte faced the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros. 

Anyone who questioned whether a 40-year-old Pettitte could still be effective after coming back from injury and facing major league competition without pitching any rehab starts (I would place myself in this group) likely doesn’t have such doubts anymore. 

Pettitte will almost certainly be part of the Yankees’ playoff rotation. The question might be whether he lines up in the third spot behind CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda or is the fourth starter after Phil Hughes. 

However, Pettitte could be called upon to take on a far more important role for the Yankees in the week to come. If he stays on his current rotation, the left-hander will have one more start on Saturday (Sept. 29) against the Blue Jays. (it could be interesting to see how he fares against Toronto the second time around.) 

Following a five-day schedule, Pettitte would then be slated to pitch on Oct. 4. There is no game for the Yankees that Thursday unless they have to play a one-game tiebreaker for the AL East title.

Pettitte would surely be pushed back to that game. 

Yankees manager Joe Girardi could save Sabathia for either a one-game tiebreaker or a wild-card playoff. But saving him for Game 1 of the divisional series (and possibly having him available for two starts) is probably the better move. 

This is an excellent development for the Yankees, no matter what the team ultimately decides.

The Yanks have their No. 1 ace available for a do-or-die playoff; but they can also put their longtime veteran on the mound who’s pitched several crucial postseason games throughout his career. 

Most recently, Pettitte pitched the Game 6 clincher in the 2009 World Series that gave the Yankees their 27th championship. He also pitched the decisive Game 6 of the ALCS that postseason.  

If the Yankees have to face the Orioles in a AL East tiebreaker, several writers and broadcasters might cite his 27-6 record and 3.52 ERA in 40 starts against the O’s. That would be largely irrelevant, however, since those appearances weren’t against this current Baltimore team. 

A better gauge might be Pettitte’s most recent starts against Baltimore in 2010. He went 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA, but two starts isn’t much of a sample size from which to draw a conclusion. 

Regardless, Pettitte facing whomever the Orioles might pitch in a tiebreaker—Chris Tillman, Steve Johnson or Wei-Yei Chen—is likely a good matchup for the Yankees, no matter how well those starters have performed. 

If the Yankees face the Oakland Athletics in a wild-card playoff, Pettitte’s history is even less conclusive. Yes, he’s 11-6 with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts vs. the A’s, but he hasn’t pitched against the them since 2009 and Oakland has a completely different team now. We’re talking about a total roster overhaul. 

But if the playoff were to take place at O.co Coliseum, past information might be a bit more relevant. Pettitte has a 4-3 record and a 3.57 ERA in 10 starts there. Even if he faced different batters and lineups in those 10 games, the ballpark itself is a factor in Pettitte’s record. 

“It’s the same old Andy. We’ve seen it for years,” Girardi told reporters after Pettitte’s start on Monday (Sept. 24). “When he needs a double play, he finds a way to get it.

“He’s been in so many situations, he’s able to relax and not make too much of one hitter. It has a lot to do with poise. He’s got a lot of poise.”

Girardi said it himself there. He would have no problem pitching Pettitte in a one-game playoff if it comes to that for the Yankees. Pettitte has certainly pitched well enough since returning from injury to have earned the nod as well. 

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With less than two weeks remaining in the 2012 MLB season, most of the playoff field has been determined.

Thanks to the addition of a second wild-card playoff spot, however, hope is alive for more teams as we approach the end of the season. We count 16 teams that have a chance of playing past Oct. 3 on their schedules. 

What are the odds of those contenders making the playoffs? Well, that’s what we’re here to figure out.

Since the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds have officially clinched postseason berths, however, there’s no sense in listing their odds. The San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees are all but assured of being in the playoffs as well, so there didn’t seem much sense in listing their odds at 1-100. 

But that leaves 10 teams fighting for four remaining spots in the postseason. Two of them look like pretty heavy favorites to make the playoffs, but there’s still a chance they could lose. 

Here are the odds for the 10 teams whose playoff chances remain alive as of Sept. 22. 

Begin Slideshow

Chris Perez may have had it wrong.

Just over two weeks ago, the Cleveland Indians closer told Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi that the 18-game gap between the Tribe and the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central standings could be attributable to each ownership’s willingness (or unwillingness) to spend money.

Yet singing the small-market blues sounds out of tune. The teams with the five highest payrolls coming into this season, according to USA Today, could miss the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics are in position to win one of the AL’s wild-card spots despite the second-lowest payroll in the majors. Also in the wild-card hunt are the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank among the lower third of team salaries. 

So if Indians owner Larry Dolan isn’t going to try to match dollars with Tigers owner Mike Ilitch in the AL Central, he obviously has to try and build a team a different way. And there’s nothing wrong with that approach, because it’s obviously worked for other small-market teams. The Tribe and general manager Chris Antonetti have to follow the model established by the A’s and Rays. 

Unfortunately, Antonetti already made one move that Oakland’s Billy Beane and Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman wouldn’t have. Neither of those GMs would have traded top pitching prospects Drew Pomeranz, Alex White and Joe Gardner to the Colorado Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez. 

Though Jimenez is under club control for another two seasons, he’s been anything but a top starter for the Indians.

This season, Jimenez has been awful with a 9-16 record and 5.43 ERA. Pomeranz and White could possibly have been contributors to Cleveland’s rotation this year. That kind of young talent shouldn’t have been traded for a pitcher who wasn’t going to be an ace. 

However, the Indians can still look forward with the approach taken by Oakland and Tampa Bay. Signing Carlos Santana to a five-year contract that bought out his arbitration years was a smart move.

But there are several other steps the Indians can follow to small-market success. 

Don’t Let Them Get Expensive

One key to Oakland’s revival has been developing young players but trading them before they become too expensive. 

For example, the A’s dealt Andrew Bailey to the Boston Red Sox just before he became eligible for arbitration this season. His salary would have increased over the next three years, but Oakland no longer has to worry about that.

Another player Beane traded before his salary escalated was Trevor Cahill. Yes, the A’s signed him to a five-year contract to buy out his arbitration years. But the higher salary kicked in this season and is going to escalate over the next four seasons. 

In return for Cahill, Oakland received Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook and Collin Cowgill. All three have made major contributions to the A’s playoff run and for a fraction of the money that Cahill was owed. 

The Indians need to do this with outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.

Choo has one more arbitration season remaining and will surely get a raise over his $4.9 million salary. Plenty of teams are looking for a power-hitting, left-handed outfield bat and will trade prospects for such a player. 

Chris Perez is another player who should be dealt for minor league talent. Not only has he worn out his welcome by running his mouth and alienating management all season, but he is also in position for a raise in his final arbitration season.

Build Through Pitching

Both the A’s and Rays have been successful due to their excellent young starting pitching. Each team is among the top five major league clubs in team ERA this season.

Tampa Bay’s starting rotation is loaded with young arms, including David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb. Oakland features Parker, Tommy Milone and Brett Anderson (who is now unfortunately lost for the season with an oblique injury). 

The Indians have a young No. 1 starter in Justin Masterson and have him under club control for two more seasons. Zach McAllister and David Huff are another couple of promising arms to build a rotation with. 

Unfortunately, Cleveland has an uphill climb in this area due to the pitchers they gave up in the Jimenez trade. Trading Zach Putnam to the Rockies in a separate deal for Kevin Slowey wasn’t a good move either. 

Antonetti needs to stop trading young arms—especially to Colorado—and sell off some of his major league talent to rebuild the pitching depth in the Indians’ minor league organization. 

Shop for Bargains

One of the things the Rays have done extremely well is sign lower-cost relievers to fill out their bullpen, rather than sink big money into free-agent bullpen help.

Fernando Rodney is the latest example of the Rays’ smart approach. Friedman signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract.

That’s virtually nothing in today’s market for a top reliever. Yet Rodney has been one of the best closers in MLB, compiling 43 saves and an 0.66 ERA. 

Oakland paid more for Grant Balfour, giving him a two-year, $8.1 million contract. But that’s still far less than, say, the $9 million the Tigers are paying Jose Valverde or $11 million Rafael Soriano is getting from the Yankees this season. 

Another smart move the A’s made was signing Brandon McCarthy to a one-year, $4.3 million contract. Before getting injured, McCarthy gave Oakland excellent production at the back end of its starting rotation with an 8-6 record and 3.24 ERA. 

An even better bargain was inking Bartolo Colon for $2 million this season. Yes, Colon was eventually suspended for 50 games after testing positive for PEDs. But prior to that, he was arguably Oakland’s best starter with a 10-9 record and 3.43 ERA. 

The Indians need to take a similar approach this offseason in filling the holes in their rotation and outfield. Bargains will be available on the free-agent market. Antonetti just has to make sure he picks the right players. 

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The image of Derek Jeter playing for a team other than the New York Yankees is difficult to visualize. 

Jeter wearing a different uniform (and likely playing a position other than shortstop) would seemingly cause a rip in the fabric of the universe. This is the sort of thing that just isn’t supposed to happen.

He’s “The Captain.” He has played for the Yankees for 18 seasons. For many of us, he is the New York Yankees even though their rich history obviously says otherwise. 

Yet Jeter apparently doesn’t feel the same romance about his playing career that the rest of us might. When ESPN’s Rick Reilly asked him if he could see himself playing for a new team, as Peyton Manning is this year with the Denver Broncos, Jeter said he could.

Actually, here are his exact words: “Well, if I wanted to keep playing, yes. It’s a business. People forget that.”

Jeter is right. We do forget that, even though we’ve been reminded time and time again that professional athletes and sports teams don’t have the same sentimentality that we do as fans. 

But still, this is Derek Jeter we’re talking about. Do we really want to see him end his career playing for a team other than the Yankees? 

It’s not so much an aesthetic thing. Plenty of baseball teams have simple, clean, classic-looking uniforms that would suit Jeter just fine. 

Well, maybe the Miami Marlins‘ new togs wouldn’t look so good on Jeter. And would we really want to see him wearing the Colorado Rockies‘ sleeveless vest? Fortunately, both of those teams already have shortstops. 

(Regardless of what happens, we wouldn’t see Jeter in anything like the American flag jersey he had to wear while on a rehab assignment with the Double-A Trenton Thunder last year.) 

What makes Jeter playing for another team particularly unimaginable is that he’s not really chasing a milestone at this point of his career. He’s not short of 3,000 hits. He wouldn’t have to find a team willing to give him the at-bats necessary to reach that big number. 

Does Jeter have his eye on 4,000 hits? If he got there, he would be only the third player in the history of baseball to collect that many hits. 

Jeter will likely end the 2012 season with more than 3,300 hits. To get to 4,000, he would probably have to play at least four more years. Jeter probably thinks he has that many seasons left in him, but would any MLB team agree with him? 

The guess here is that Jeter reached this cold, business-like stance while coming to terms on his current contract with the Yankees in 2010.

It was a tough, surprisingly bitter negotiation with general manager Brian Cashman essentially challenging Jeter to shop himself around to find a deal better than the three-year, $45 million contract the Yankees offered him. 

That led to some entertaining speculation that the Boston Red Sox might try to sign Jeter to be their shortstop. But that was always more about sticking it to the Yankees than giving Jeter what he thought he was worth on the open market. 

Jeter and the Yankees eventually agreed to a three-year, $51 million contract, but according to ESPN New York’s Ian O’Connor, hard feelings developed from the negotiation. Jeter’s answer to Reilly’s question about playing for another team seemed to indicate that those sentiments still existed. 

Realistically, however, we’re not going to see Jeter in another uniform. He’s under contract with the Yankees through 2014, including a player option. By the time that deal expires, he’ll be 40 years old.

If he gets another 350 to 400 hits over the next two seasons, Jeter will probably pass Stan Musial for fourth on the all-time hits list. Ranking below Pete Rose, Ty Cobb and Hank Aaron is hardly a bad place to end one’s career. What more can Jeter really accomplish at that point? 

In a follow-up with the New York Daily News‘ Mark Feinsand, Jeter insisted that he wasn’t talking about himself so much as putting himself in Peyton Manning’s shoes. Manning wanted to keep playing and the Indianapolis Colts no longer wanted him, so he moved on to the Broncos. It’s a business. 

Would playing for another team tarnish Jeter’s legacy? Perhaps in the short term because it would be so strange seeing him in another uniform and it would appear that he’s hanging on to achieve another milestone (presumably 4,000 hits). 

But would one or two years with another team take anything away from Jeter’s career? No, Jeter wouldn’t be Cal Ripken, Ozzie Smith or Tony Gwynn, and that would be kind of sad. 

Yet for all the wincing and lamenting about how Willie Mays ended his career, misplaying balls and falling down in center field, we still remember him as one of the all-time greats in baseball history. Jeter presumably holds his legacy and image in high enough esteem that he wouldn’t put himself in that position. 

No other group of fans besides Yankees fans should get to call Jeter their shortstop. He knows that, the Yankees know it and the discussion should really end there. 

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