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Has the race for the National League Rookie of the Year Award essentially been decided with two weeks remaining in the 2012 season? 

It’s beginning to look that way, as Todd Frazier’s September slide has created some distance between him and Wade Miley for front-runner status in our weekly rankings. What looked like a two-man competition might now be Miley’s race to lose. 

The biggest news in this week’s rankings is Zack Cozart dropping out of the top five. Cozart hasn’t played since Sept. 3 due to an oblique injury. He’s expected to return before the end of the season, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer‘s John Fay, and Reds manager Dusty Baker has the second spot in his lineup waiting for him when he returns. 

So that opens up at least one spot in our top five for a new candidate or the return of a previous contender. It could also be both. You’ll have to click through and see how the rankings shake out this week.

As we see it, here are the five leading contenders for NL Rookie of the Year Award. 

All statistics mentioned are current as of Sept. 18.

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Who is the best manager in Major League Baseball?

That’s a difficult question to answer. There’s no statistic that measures a manager’s effectiveness like OPS does with hitters or ERA with pitchers.

Win-loss record is certainly a good indicator of how well a manager does his job. But different skippers find success in different ways. Some are excellent strategists. Others are good motivators. The best of the best are good in both areas. 

With more than half the teams in MLB still contending for playoff spots, there are plenty of managers who are doing good jobs. But who is doing the best job?

Here’s our rankings of the managers with teams still in the playoff hunt.

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Is spending big money the key to success in Major League Baseball? 

The chances of winning are certainly helped by a large payroll. Ask Chris Perez what he thinks about the Cleveland Indians keeping their payroll low this season while the Detroit Tigers expanded their budget to sign players like Prince Fielder. 

“You get what you pay for in baseball,” Perez told Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi. “Sometimes you don’t. But most of the time you do.”

But does a team really get what it pays for these days?

The teams with the five highest payrolls in MLB this season, according to USA Today—the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers—could all miss the playoffs this year. 

No team made a bigger splash in spending money during the season than the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took on the salaries of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to help them compete for an NL West title or wild-card playoff spot, yet could miss the playoffs.

Will they be a favorite in the NL West next year?

What did the Miami Marlins get for shelling out loads of cash during the offseason? The Marlins signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell to big free-agent contracts but currently hold last place in the NL East and could very well finish the season there. 

Compare that to the Oakland Athletics, who went into this season with the second-lowest payroll in baseball at $55.4 million. Yet as of Sept. 14, the A’s hold one of the American League’s wild-card playoff spots.

Going by the league standings, Oakland has a two-game lead over the next closest team in the wild-card race. According to Cool Standings, the A’s have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs. 

Despite a payroll near the lower-third of teams in MLB, the Washington Nationals have the best record in MLB and appear to be the favorite to win the National League pennant. Their Beltway neighbors, the Baltimore Orioles, could win the AL East or second wild-card spot, yet have one of the lower payrolls in baseball. 

If the Nats aren’t the NL front-runners, the Cincinnati Reds likely are. The Reds are in the middle of the pack in team payroll, just ahead of the Nationals. Right above the Reds in total salary are the Atlanta Braves, who have a firm grasp on one NL wild-card bid. 

Other teams still in the playoff mix despite lower payrolls include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Is this a one-year anomaly?

Perhaps the A’s and Orioles won’t be in the same competitive position next season. But the other lower-salaried teams listed above look to be playoff contenders for years to come because they’ve drafted well and developed talent through their farm systems. 

In a previous article, I asked whether or not the Yankees might return to their free-spending ways if they fail to make the playoffs this year. The last time the Yanks didn’t qualify for the postseason, they handed out $432.5 million in free-agent contracts to return the team to championship glory. But could opening up the vault again next year yield the same results?

It appears as if the Yankees and Phillies have learned that spending huge money isn’t a guarantee of success.

Both Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. have publicly stated that they would like to get their payrolls below the luxury-tax threshold. Amaro wants to avoid the $178 million limit for next season while Cashman and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner have an eye on the $189 million threshold for 2014. 

The Red Sox appear to be reducing their payroll too, after shedding $260 million from their budget in the blockbuster trade that sent Gonzalez, Crawford and Beckett to the Dodgers.

Yet the days of spending big money aren’t over in baseball, if for no other reason than there’s so much money available to an increasing number of teams.

Huge television broadcast contracts have changed the game, providing major boosts to clubs like the Angels and Texas Rangers. The Dodgers are spending money with the knowledge that they’ll eventually cash in on a TV package that could exceed $8 billion, according to Forbes. The Yankees and Red Sox aren’t the only teams benefiting from larger regional TV deals anymore. 

The Rangers, San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals are each among the top 10 payrolls in the game, likely to make the playoffs and could compete for a World Series this fall. If any of those teams win a championship, will that deter big spending? It doesn’t seem likely. 

Can a team buy a championship anymore? Perhaps not. We probably won’t see a team like the 1997 Florida Marlins or 2009 New York Yankees again.

But a team does have to spend money to win consistently, whether it chooses to invest in free agents or international signings and player development. That’s something that hasn’t—and likely never will—change.

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Could Ryne Sandberg be the Philadelphia Phillies‘ manager in 2013?

Probably not, because Charlie Manuel is under contract to be the Phillies’ skipper next season and the team likely doesn’t want to eat the reported $3.75 million he’s set to be paid in the final year of his contract. 

However, the fact that the Phillies haven’t offered Manuel a contract extension beyond next year could be a sign of the team’s future intentions. The typical move made in this situation is to offer a manager at least a one-year extension so that he doesn’t look like a “lame duck” whose job status gives him little authority.

Yet according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, Sandberg is highly regarded within the Phillies organization. The former Chicago Cubs second baseman is currently the skipper for Philadelphia’s Triple-A Lehigh Valley team and could be a popular candidate to fill some managerial openings around MLB next year. 

If the Phillies view Sandberg as their manager of the future, can they afford to leave him out there for another team to hire? 

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. acknowledges that there’s “nothing to be done” if Sandberg wants to take a big league managing job next year. But the hope in the organization seems to be for Sandberg to bide his time for one more season and take over in the Phillies dugout for 2014. 

Is Sandberg willing to wait one more year for his first major league managing job? He worked his way through the Cubs’ minor league organization for four years, showing that he was willing to pay his dues and prove his merit as a manager.

There was no payoff, however, as Sandberg was passed over for Mike Quade when Lou Piniella retired as Cubs manager in 2010. Disappointed at not getting a promotion and not seeing much of a future for himself with the Cubs, Sandberg took a job with the Phillies to be their Triple-A manager.

How many major league teams will be looking for new managers next year?

The Houston Astros will definitely have an opening after firing Brad Mills and finishing the season with interim manager Tony DeFrancesco. The Boston Red Sox will almost certainly fire Bobby Valentine when the regular season ends. 

Valentine’s firing could create a vacancy in Toronto if the Red Sox pursue Blue Jays manager John Farrell. The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo reports that Farrell, who was a pitching coach for four years under Terry Francona, is the Red Sox’s top choice to replace Valentine. 

If Manny Acta’s job status with the Cleveland Indians is shaky, as Heyman speculated earlier this week (Sept. 11), that could present another potential opportunity for a prospective manager. 

Sandberg would be a good candidate for any of those jobs. He might be especially appealing for the Astros since he has so much experience managing developing players in the minor leagues. 

Nothing has apparently been promised to Sandberg by the Phillies. Amaro‘s “nothing to be done” comment virtually confirms that. Sandberg‘s experience with the Cubs also surely taught him that there’s no such thing as a chain of succession when it comes to teams hiring managers. A “manager-in-waiting” is often left waiting. 

So if Sandberg has a chance at an opportunity elsewhere, he will almost certainly take it. There just aren’t that many major league managing jobs available. 

Yet Sandberg might also realize that the best job will open up for him in 2014 if Manuel retires after his contract runs out. If Sandberg is viewed as favorably within the Phillies organization as Heyman reports, waiting might be the best move for him. He’ll likely have a contending team to manage and a general manager behind him who wants to keep winning. 

But the Phillies shouldn’t panic and give Sandberg the job for 2013 because they’re worried about losing him. Manuel is a proven commodity who managed five consecutive first-place teams and led the Phillies to back-to-back World Series. 

Perhaps there was some thought that Manuel shouldn’t be back next season when the Phillies were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. Now that the team has played itself into contention for an NL wild-card playoff spot, however, he’s shown that he can still manage capably with a healthy roster. 

Manuel has earned the right to finish out his contract. He’s arguably earned an extension, but perhaps views next season as his last. Letting Manuel go out on his terms and lead a Phillies team that should be improved and a contender in the NL East next year is the right move. 

If that means losing Sandberg, so be it. But the right move for him might be to stick around in the organization for just one more year.

Putting Sandberg on Manuel’s coaching staff next year might be a nice assurance for his future, however. Why not ensure a smooth transition?

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Perhaps you heard that the Washington Nationals shut Stephen Strasburg down for the season after his start on Friday (Sept. 7). It’s been kind of a big deal. 

Virtually all of the attention surrounding the Nationals over the past few days—or has it really been the past couple of months—concerned the Strasburg September shutdown. 

One of the reasons given for shutting Strasburg down—one appearance before what was believed to be his final outing on Sept. 12—is that manager Davey Johnson believed that all of the scrutiny over Strasburg‘s innings limit had become a major distraction for the 23-year-old phenom and the rest of the team.

It’s delusional for the Nationals to think that the players won’t continue to be asked about Strasburg‘s shutdown through the rest of the regular season and into the postseason, especially if the starting pitching falters in any way.

But here’s the thing: The pitching won’t falter and neither will the rest of the team. The Nats are still one of the best teams in the National League—with perhaps the most complete roster in terms of batting and pitching right now—and should make a run for the World Series even without their star right-hander. 

Plenty of Starting Pitching Remains

Obviously, the Nationals are a better team with Strasburg on the active roster. But this is a starting rotation that has a collective 3.33 ERA as of Sept. 11, the best mark in MLB. Strasburg played a big part in that, of course, but such a number isn’t compiled with just one pitcher throwing well. 

Gio Gonzalez has been one of the best pitchers in the NL all season, giving the Nats a strong No. 2 pitcher behind Strasburg.

But on plenty of other teams, he would be the No. 1 guy. Gonzalez is among the NL’s top five starting pitchers with a 2.93 ERA, and his 1.13 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched)  is the sixth-best in the league. Plus no starter in the majors has a lower opponents’ batting average than Gonzalez’s .206. 

The rest of the Nats‘ rotation continues to look impressive. Jordan Zimmermann’s 2.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP rank him among the top 10 starters in the NL. Edwin Jackson has a 3.85 ERA and his strikeout rate of 8.0 Ks per nine innings is the second-highest of his 10-year major league career. Ross Detwiler has been excellent as the fifth (now fourth) starter with a 3.23 ERA this season. 

John Lannan will take Strasburg‘s turn in the Nats‘ rotation, meaning he’ll probably pitch four times through the rest of the regular season. Lannan had a 4.30 ERA at Triple-A Syracuse, but that might be attributable to the disappointment of losing a spot in the rotation at the end of spring training. If he wants to pitch meaningful major league innings, he’ll have a chance to do so now. 

The Bullpen is Excellent

Last year’s postseason demonstrated how important it is for a team to have a deep bullpen in a playoff series. Both the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals needed their relief corps to take the ball when the starting pitching couldn’t pitch into the later innings. 

The Nationals are well equipped to do the same if their starter is chased after four or five innings. 

With the return of injured closer Drew Storen (3.10 ERA in 25 appearances), Washington can go at least five relievers deep into the bullpen in any given game. Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus and Sean Burnett each have ERAs under 3.00 in middle relief. Tyler Clippard took over as closer while Storen was out and has saved 30 games while striking out 76 batters in 64 innings. 

The Nats also have two pitchers capable of pitching in long relief if needed. Tom Gorzelanny and Chien-Ming Wang are accustomed to pitching many innings and could be a crucial bridge between the starter and late-inning relief. 

Offense: Full Strength

The Nationals took the lead in the NL East in early April despite an offense that was missing several key bats.

Michael Morse, the team’s leading home run and RBI man last season, injured a lat muscle in spring training and wasn’t available until June.

Ryan Zimmerman was sidelined with a shoulder injury for 13 games through April and May. The shoulder plagued him until he took a cortisone shot for it in late June. 

Additionally, Jayson Werth was knocked out of the lineup in early May with a broken wrist and didn’t return until August. Wilson Ramos soon joined him on the disabled list with a torn ACL. 

Being shorthanded on offense is what compelled the Nats to call up Bryce Harper from the minors at the end of April. Harper was an NL Rookie of the Year candidate through most of the season before slumping in July and August. However, he seems to have turned himself around in September. 

First baseman Adam LaRoche has regained his 30-homer, 100-RBI form after a shoulder injury last year, giving Washington a strong middle of the order to go with Zimmerman, Morse and shortstop Ian Desmond. 

Going into the final weeks on the schedule and into the postseason, the Nats have the lineup they envisioned at the start of the season. After a slow start, Washington has scored the fourth-most runs in the NL. 

Draw the Wild Card

As the team with the best record in the NL, the Nationals would play their divisional playoff series against the winner of the one-game wild-card tiebreaker. 

Right now, that would put Washington up against the Atlanta Braves or St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. Fortunately for the Nats, that would give them a favorable matchup. 

The Nationals currently have a 10-5 record against their intra-divisional rivals this season. It’s one reason the Nats have been able to build a strong first-place lead in the NL East. 

The sample size is much smaller versus the Cardinals, though the two teams will also face each other three more times before the end of the season. The Nationals have taken three of four games from the Cards thus far. 

Strangely, the tougher matchup for the Nats might be the Pittsburgh Pirates (2-3 against the Bucs) or the Los Angeles Dodgers (0-3). 

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Apparently, even the Washington Nationals were so sick of all the Stephen Strasburg shutdown talk that the team decided to finally put an end to it. 

OK, maybe that’s not exactly why the Nationals announced on Saturday (Sept. 8) that Strasburg’s 2012 season is suddenly finished, as reported by multiple outlets, including The Washington Post. Strasburg was expected to make one more start this year, Wednesday (Sept. 12) versus the New York Mets.

Is it a big deal that the Nationals are cutting Strasburg’s season short by one start? When it’s phrased like that, maybe not. But the reason given for prematurely sidelining him is at least a bit curious.

Manager Davey Johnson told reporters, including the Washington Times‘ Amanda Comak, that the  media attention over Strasburg’s impending shutdown had worn down the 24-year-old star. 

The media hype on this thing has been unbelievable. I feel it’s as hard for him as it would be anybody to get mentally, totally committed in the ballgame. And he’s reached his innings limit. So we can get past this and talk about other things for a change.

With all due respect, Mr. Johnson, I think we’re going to be talking about this for a while, at least through the next week. 

Strasburg certainly didn’t present a strong case for his season continuing after his latest start. Facing the Miami Marlins, he lasted only three innings before being pulled from the game. Strasburg allowed five runs and six hits (two of them home runs). He walked three batters and struck out only two, his lowest total of the season. 

It was the second time in his past three starts that Strasburg had allowed five runs.

That strengthened the perception that his reconstructed right elbow was wearing down under the grind of his first full season since recovering from Tommy John surgery. As I wrote in early August, this was becoming increasingly apparent to beat writers covering the Nationals. 

During the second half of the season, Strasburg’s ERA went from 2.82 to 3.73. His strikeout-to-walk ratio decreased from 4.57 to 3.45. He allowed seven home runs in 60.1 innings after giving up eight in 99 innings before the All-Star break. Everything with Strasburg was trending in the wrong direction. 

So shutting Strasburg down now, even with only one start remaining in his season, makes sense from a physical standpoint and from a baseball standpoint. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said as much in his remarks to the press, including the Washington Times‘ Tom Schad.

After yesterday’s start, we just figured that mentally and physically, Stephen looked like he was fatigued. We said let’s pull the plug today and move on with the season and try and finish the season off positive.

Rizzo went on to explain that it was a relatively easy decision among Johnson, Rizzo and pitching coach Steve McCatty.

With 159.1 innings pitched after Friday’s start, Strasburg’s workload fell within the 160-inning limit that had been originally projected for him by many analysts and observers. Would one more start and another six innings really matter, especially when Strasburg appeared to be struggling?

All right, fair enough. But that’s not what Johnson said when explaining Strasburg’s shutdown.

The Nats manager made it sound as if his young pitcher couldn’t handle all the attention and scrutiny that the media was giving him. In doing so, he made Strasburg sound mentally weak. When asked to clarify, Johnson didn’t walk back from this either, telling reporters, including Tom Schad of the Washington Times:.

I know he’s been struggling with it for weeks. I know he doesn’t sleep good thinking about it. Shoot, I’ve heard so much advice from every ex-pitcher, every guru on the matter.

If you’re not there 100 percent mentally—I mean, he’s a gifted athlete. His velocity could still be there. I don’t see the crispness. I don’t see the ball jumping out of his hand. It’s more, I’m a firm believer this game is 90-95 percent mental. He’s only human. I don’t know how anybody can be totally concentrating on the job at hand and media hype to this thing. I think we would be risking more sending him back out.

I’m not going to pretend I know what it’s like to push through the rigors of a full major league season with a surgically repaired elbow. Heck, I’ve never once thrown anything as hard in my life as Strasburg throws a baseball more than 100 times a game.

I also don’t know what it’s like to have to face repeated questions from local and national baseball reporters about how my arm feels and how I feel about my team wanting to shut me down for the season. I’m sure it absolutely is a grind. 

But rightly or wrongly, Johnson’s remarks call into question whether Strasburg can handle the burden that comes with being a team leader and staff ace.

Isn’t this level of attention and scrutiny what comes with life as a major league starting pitcher? Do the Nats think Strasburg won’t face this kind of questioning next season, especially as he approaches 160-180 innings again?

Or will the presumption just be that he’s ready to pitch 200 innings because he got through this season and should be stronger?

If that’s the case, the Nats were probably right to shut down Strasburg before the playoffs. Apparently, he would have become a blubbering mental mess—going “Bu-bu-bu-bu-bu…!“—when facing the harsh national spotlight that comes with postseason baseball.

Johnson did Strasburg no favors by portraying him as wilting under the mental grind of media hype. (And if he’s trying to blame the media for this, that is dubious at best, garbage at worst.)

If I was Strasburg, I’d be upset that my manager threw that perception out there. Of course, Strasburg can dispel this notion by talking to the press about this later on.

That is, if Johnson thinks he can handle it. 

Please allow me to clarify: I don’t think the Nationals made the wrong decision here. As crazy as it sounded all along to shut Strasburg down when the Nats have a chance to contend for a World Series championship, I think the physical evidence was increasingly supporting the team’s position.

(However, considering how closely I’ve followed the Nationals this season and how often I’ve written about Strasburg, maybe I’m suffering from a form of Stockholm syndrome.)

Strasburg is the Nationals’ top pitcher. He is a No. 1 starter and a deserving candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. But the team needs to begin treating him more like an ace or give him the opportunity to be one. Perhaps that will happen next year.

For now, however, the Nats’ decision to end his season prematurely and blame it on the mental grind of constant interrogation over his status, rather than the physical toll of throwing more innings than he ever has, makes Strasburg look as if he’s not ready for the responsibility.

If that is actually the truth, the Nationals have a major concern going into next season. 

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With a month remaining in the 2012 MLB season, the primary focus is on teams that are in the pennant race, contending for division titles and wild-card playoff spots.

Standing just outside the spotlight yet still noticeable, however, are the teams that were expected to join the playoff chase this season but have become afterthoughts in September.

In limbo are the clubs that still have a chance at the postseason but weren’t expected to be fighting for their playoff lives at this point of the year. These teams already carry the stench of unfulfilled expectations but still have an opportunity to wash it away. 

At this point, however, these seven clubs have been the biggest disappointments. Two have a chance to save themselves, but the other four are already looking toward next year.

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With the calendar turning to September, it’s pennant race time in baseball. Teams that are in contention now can truly say they’re in this thing. 

All the planning during the winter and work during the spring are paying off now. All the great play during the first five months of the regular season and the moves made at the trade deadline have built toward this. It’s the best time of the year in baseball—and even better if you’re a fan of one of the teams competing in the playoff chase. 

Every September has dramatic, meaningful baseball. Last year gave us perhaps the best late-season race we’ve ever seen. It certainly resulted in the best final day of the regular season we’ve enjoyed as baseball fans with the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals taking us to midnight before winning their wild-card playoff bids.

But the stretch run for this season could be truly memorable. Heading into the final month, 15 teams are in playoff contention, thanks to the extra wild-card spot added to the postseason format this year. 

The sheer number of teams competing for 10 playoff bids is only one of the reasons September is going to be tremendously fun to follow for baseball fans and those of us who write about the sport. Here is what we’re looking at. 

Everywhere You Look, There’s a Race

Last year at this time (Sept. 4), only two of the six division races—the AL East and AL West—had first-place margins of less than five games. Every National League division had a first-place lead of at least seven games. 

This season, all three division leaders in the American League have first-place leads of less than five games. Two divisions—the AL East and AL Central—have a one-game margin at the top. In the NL, the San Francisco Giants lead the Dodgers by 4.5 games. 

The wild card has taken something away from tight division races in recent seasons. The runner-up in the best division race typically has the safety net of the league’s extra playoff spot to fall into. (The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves didn’t exactly follow that pattern last year.) 

But this year, even with an extra wild-card spot available, it’s not a given that the AL East runner-up will get a wild-card playoff spot. The Baltimore Orioles currently hold one of those bids and the Rays are 1.5 games behind the wild-card leaders. As tightly clustered as the wild-card pack is, however,  the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers could easily nab those spots.

If that happens, it would be the first time since 2006 that the second-place team in the AL East didn’t make the playoffs as a wild card. 

Wild Card Races are Wild

What made last year’s rallies by the Rays and Cardinals so impressive is that both teams appeared to be far out of playoff contention. The Red Sox (eight games) and Braves (8.5 games) had huge leads in the wild-card standings on Sept. 4.

Yes, both teams blew their leads, making for the most exciting final day of the season that baseball has ever seen. But this year, the suspense is already there. There won’t be a slow build. We’ll very likely have four-team races in each league for two wild-card bids. In the AL, it could be a five-team competition.

We already mentioned the Orioles, Rays, Athletics and Tigers as participants in the AL wild-card battle royale. But the Los Angeles Angels, 3.5 games behind in the standings, need to be included as well—even if they have four teams to fight through for one of those coveted extra playoff spots. 

In the NL, the Braves and Cardinals bring an air of familiarity to the wild-card race. This year, both teams could make it, rather than one beating out the other.

But the Los Angeles Dodgers, fueled by their Aug. 25 mega trade, are just a half-game behind the wild-card leaders. Also still in the race despite a terrible August are the Pittsburgh Pirates, 2.5 games off the pace. 

New Blood from the Beltway

Every year, the playoff field has some relatively new faces. The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks had been in the NL playoffs relatively recently, but provided a bit of a fresh look for 2011. In the AL, the Tigers hadn’t been in the postseason since 2006. 

But this year’s postseason could truly provide a transfusion of new blood, courtesy of the nation’s beltway. The Orioles haven’t made the AL playoffs since 1997. A 15-year drought has left an entire generation of O’s fans wondering what it was like to see postseason baseball in Baltimore. 

Forty miles away, down I-95, the Washington Nationals haven’t caught a scent of the postseason during their seven years in D.C. Going deeper into the history of the franchise, the Nats haven’t made the playoffs since 1981, when the Montreal Expos were the second-half champs of a strike-shortened season. 

The Orioles have been the surprise team of the AL, challenging the Yankees in the AL East and competing for a wild-card spot during a season in which most analysts predicted them to finish in last place.

Baltimore’s ascension to playoff contention has been all the more probable with a 4.58 ERA from its starting rotation. Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel have been good, but haven’t given the O’s an ace. Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter and Jake Arrietta have all bounced between the majors and Triple-A Norfolk this season. 

The pitching mastery is in D.C., where the Nationals’ starting staff leads MLB with a 3.26 ERA. With Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler, the Nats have the best rotation in baseball.

As a team, Washington is right behind the Rays with a staff ERA of 3.27. Tyler Clippard has gone from one of the majors’ best setup men to one of its best closers. Sean Burnett, Ryan Mattheus and Craig Stammen have been outstanding in middle relief. And last year’s closer, Drew Storen, has recovered from an elbow injury to provide reinforcements. 

Neither team is assured of a postseason big yet, especially the Orioles. But the chances of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area hosting some playoff baseball this October look extremely strong. Could the Beltway provide MLB‘s best regional rivalry other than the Subway Series between the Yankees and New York Mets? 

Big Stakes for Big Markets

This might be something that only TV executives care about, but what if neither the New York or Los Angeles markets have a team in the MLB playoff field?

The Yankees will almost certainly make it to the postseason. But with only a one-game lead in the AL East and the melee in the wild-card standings, it’s not far-fetched to imagine that the Yanks could be squeezed out of the playoffs.

On the west coast, the Dodgers took on $260 million worth of contracts to get the first baseman and starting pitcher they sorely needed to make a postseason run. Yet the Dodgers have gone 5-5 since making their blockbuster deal with the Red Sox and are staring at a 4.5 game deficit in the NL West. 

If the Tigers beat out the White Sox in the AL Central, there goes the No. 3 market too.

Here is a list of the top 100 TV markets in the country. All hope would not be lost in baseball if the Yankees, Dodgers and White Sox didn’t make the playoffs. The Rangers would still bring the No. 5 market into play. If either the Giants or A’s make it, that takes care of the No. 6 market. The Braves and Nationals would cover the No. 8 and No. 9 TV markets, as well. 

Looking at it another way, the top five payrolls in baseball face the possibility of not qualifying for the postseason. (You can see a listing of top payrolls this season and how they rank amongst one another at USA Today.) The Rangers and Giants might be the only clubs in the top 10 to make the playoffs. 

Could we see a triumph of the mid-to-small-market teams this postseason?

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To the surprise of virtually no one, Roger Clemens is going to pitch again for the Sugar Land Skeeters. 

(Well, maybe that is a surprise, if you were expecting him to pitch for the Houston Astros in his very next appearance. But more on that later.) 

Clemens’ next start is scheduled for Friday, Sept. 7 against the Long Island Ducks, who feature Timo Perez in their lineup. (Perez is 2-for-11 lifetime against Clemens, if you were curious. Weren’t you curious?)

Prior to his next appearance, Clemens will throw a side session on Tuesday, Sept. 4 while the Skeeters are playing the York Revolution. Showing its entrepreneurial spirit, the Revolution are promoting this and inviting ticket holders to watch Clemens throw before the game. Clearly, no one wants to make a sideshow of this event. 

The fact that Clemens is pitching again has fueled further speculation that these efforts are intended as preparation for a return to the major leagues. For at least one start, anyway.

Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that the team is scouting Clemens’ next start for the Skeeters. (Maybe their new guy, Kevin Goldstein, will be among the group watching.) Heyman’s colleague, Danny Knobler, writes that the current speculation in baseball is that Clemens will pitch for the Astros after a normal four days of rest.

That would put him on the mound Sept. 12 at Minute Maid Park against the Chicago Cubs. As you may have noticed, Sept. 12 is not during the final month of the regular season.

If Clemens follows a normal rotation, he could make three additional starts for the Astros. However, if he wanted to end the season at home, that would likely be Sunday, Sept. 23 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

But why does Clemens want to do this? Is this really all just for love of the game? Does he just want people to like him, really, really like him, as a friend of Clemens told ESPN’s Jayson Stark? Does he really just love getting out there on the mound and throwing a baseball so much that he’ll take any opportunity to do so?

Has five years of retirement driven him batty and he’ll do just about anything to get out of the house? 

Do Clemens and Astros owner Jim Crane just think it would be fun for the fans to see a baseball legend on the field a couple more times? As MLB.com’s Richard Justice reports, Crane insists it wouldn’t be for the money or publicity, for what that’s worth. Some of the revenue generated by any games Clemens pitches in might go to charity. 

Yet the prevailing belief is that Clemens wants to pitch in the majors one more time so that he can reset his eligibility for the Baseball Hall of Fame back another five years.

Five years from now, perhaps some of the ill feelings toward Clemens from his perjury trial and accusations of performance-enhancing drug use will have subsided. Clemens would also gain some separation from the Hall of Fame eligibles of 2013, which include other accused PED users such as Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa. 

But would this really happen? Would five more years to consider Clemens’ suitability for the Hall of Fame truly make a difference among voters and in popular opinion? 

It’s possible that Bonds and perhaps Piazza will have been voted in to Cooperstown by then, after voters make those players wait a year or two as punishment for presumably using PEDs. Voters could at least take away the honor of being “first ballot Hall of Famers” from those players and then acknowledge their achievements on the field. (Jeff Bagwell could be included in this group as well.)

If that’s the case and accused steroid users have gained entry in to the Hall of Fame by the time Clemens is eligible again, then he would certainly have less of a stigma surrounding him. The so-called steroid era will have been accepted. 

Something else to consider is that Clemens would stand out more as a certain Hall of Famer among the potential ballot for 2018.

Who else will be on the ballot by then? Chipper Jones, for certain. Mariano Rivera would have been a lock, but he intends to pitch in 2013 following his season-ending knee injury this year. What about Lance Berkman? Jim Thome? Andy Pettitte? Ichiro Suzuki, perhaps? 

Jones and Rivera would get plenty of support and be the headliners. But Clemens could overshadow them with his candidacy and be the heavy favorite to gain 75 percent of the vote.

By that point, voters will have had another five years to look over his numbers. His 354 wins rank ninth on the all-time list of pitcher wins. He may even have surpassed Greg Maddux for eighth place if he earns a victory or two during this comeback. 

This could be where Clemens’ true intentions lie. He would almost be like a car salesman, telling a potential customer to take his time and think it over. He’ll check back with you later. In this case, it would be five years later. 

Oh, and don’t forget that he ended his career (again) on a high note pitching for his hometown Astros and gave everyone one highlight in what’s been a miserable season. Go ahead and check that Baseball-Reference page again as many times as needed. Talk with as many people as necessary.

With that, Clemens could head back to his office (he wouldn’t have a cubicle), kick his feet up on the desk and savor the moment, knowing that he made the sale. All that remains is for it to become official. 

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This is not how it was supposed to happen.

When the Los Angeles Dodgers made their blockbuster trade with the Boston Red Sox last week, it was supposed to light a wick and send them rocketing into the stratosphere. Or at the very least, past the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West.

However, in the seven games the team has played since acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto, the new-look Dodgers have won only twice. No one in baseball—but especially the Dodgers and their fans—likely anticipated a 2-5 stretch.

As a result, the Dodgers have fallen 4.5 games behind the Giants in the NL West. They’re also 1.5 games from one of the NL’s wild-card playoff spots. A week ago, many were fitting the Dodgers for championship hardware. But it’s now looking like a distinct possibility that this team won’t even make the playoffs. 

Of course, a 4.5-game deficit going into September is hardly insurmountable. Nor is a 1.5-game gap. Ask the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves about that. Well, maybe it’s better to ask the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals.

It would really be better to ask the Cardinals. St. Louis set the example for successful late-season surges by overcoming a nine-game deficit to win the NL wild card and going on to win the World Series. 

Where’s the Offense?

Yet the Dodgers are hardly trending upward as September begins. Gonzalez hit a three-run homer in his first at-bat in Dodger blue, but has hit 6-for-29 overall (.207) since arriving from Boston. In his first start, Beckett allowed three runs and seven hits in less than six innings.

What about the players already on hand before the trade? 

Matt Kemp has hit well since the trade, going 5-for-16 (.315), though he did miss two games after colliding with an outfield wall at Coors Field. Gonzalez batting behind him may be one reason for Kemp’s recent success.

But Kemp has been in a power drought. He hasn’t hit a home run since Aug. 8. 

Hanley Ramirez has been at his preferred position of shortstop, yet he hit 4-for-28 (.143) with two home runs and three RBI. Shane Victorino has batted 7-for-25 (.280), but only has one triple and one RBI. 

Manager Don Mattingly called a team meeting on Thursday (Aug. 30) to let his team know what was as stake. But maybe he also told his hitters to be more like Andre Ethier. The Dodgers right fielder is batting 10-for-27 (.370) since the trade with two doubles, a home run and three RBI. 

What Happens Next?

So what if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs after making the biggest trade in baseball history? Where do Ned Colletti and the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group go from there?

(I love typing out “Guggenheim Baseball Management,” by the way. Doesn’t it sound like something you’d see on TV with a 1-800 number?

“Does your baseball team stink? How many hours do you spend suffering after another loss? Do you think you deserve better? Guggenheim Baseball Management can help you. Operators are standing by. One lucky caller might even get to speak to Magic Johnson.”)

Table Setters Apply Here

With Gonzalez, Kemp, Ramirez and Ethier, the Dodgers have a strong middle-of-the-order. But who gets on base for those guys to drive in?

Crawford will presumably be one of those batters. They need him to get on base like he did before joining the Red Sox.

Casting him as a leadoff hitter might not be the right move. Crawford has batted second for most of his career and he’s done well in that role, batting .302/.345/.460 with 211 stolen bases in nearly 3,000 plate appearances. The Dodgers could definitely use some of that in their No. 2 slot. 

Yet that still leaves the Dodgers without a leadoff man. Their three outfield spots are spoken, for so the Dodgers will have to find an infielder for the job. 

The free agent pickings are slim, especially for a leadoff-type. But Maicer Izturis could be the guy for the job. He can play second base, shortstop or third base. And as a leadoff hitter, he has a .337 on-base percentage in 670 plate appearances. 

But that’s not a very bold move and if there’s one thing the Dodgers’ new ownership group likes to do, it’s go big and bold. 

How about trading for Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve? He has a .344 OBP batting at the top of the order. At 22 years old, he makes the lineup younger and more athletic.

Plus, the Dodgers wouldn’t have to worry about second base for at least four years, as Altuve has one more season to go before he becomes eligible for arbitration. 

Yes, the Dodgers already have Mark Ellis. But perhaps he can be included in a trade for Altuve, providing general manager Jeff Luhnow another veteran that could be flipped for some minor league depth. 

Bolster the Bench

In his recap of the Dodgers’ Friday (Aug. 30) loss, ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon pointed out one of the major problems with the team’s current roster. The bench stinks. There’s no depth.

Mattingly has the likes of Punto, Juan Uribe, Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera, and Matt Treanor available on his bench. Those players can provide decent defensive replacements, but they’re hardly solid pinch-hitting options. 

This is an area Colletti has to improve for next season and it shouldn’t take too much money for him to do so. Not that money is really a consideration for the Dodgers any more. 

More Pitching, Please

Chad Billingsley may be done for the season after going on the disabled list with elbow inflammation. He took an injection of platelet-rich plasma in his right elbow in hopes of speeding up the healing process, but it’s a strong possibility that he won’t be available through September.

The worst fear is that Billingsley’s elbow may be in danger of needing Tommy John surgery, which would obviously sideline him for the 2013 season. 

The Dodgers were already short-handed in the starting rotation with Ted Lilly nursing a shoulder injury. Getting Beckett brought in a much-needed arm for the starting staff, but Colletti was still looking for pitching help before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline. The team will have to bring in another arm or two for next season.

Could that be Zack Greinke? The Dodgers should certainly be able to offer him enough money to beat out the competition. Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy and Anibal Sanchez are other, lower-cost possibilities.

However, Colletti also has to address his bullpen. Kenley Jensen’s irregular heartbeat is a major concern, but even if he is shut down for the rest of this season, his condition should be treatable through the winter and make him available for next year.

Will the Dodgers bring back Brandon League? Could they take a chance on Ryan Madson or chase another high-profile closer like Brett Myers or Jose Valverde?

Signing middle relievers to add depth would probably be the smarter way to go.

Mike Adams would be excellent for a setup role and could also be an option at closer, if needed. Jason Grilli and Juan Cruz have pitched well for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. Perhaps the Dodgers take a shot at either of them repeating that success. Other options include Joel Peralta, Francisco Rodriguez and Jon Rauch. Colletti will be able to find arms.

The Dodgers could still go on to make the playoffs, win the World Series and render all of these suggestions unnecessary.

But Colletti and team president Stan Kasten have to build an actual team during the offseason, not just chase the biggest names and worry about where they might fit on the roster later. If there ends up being one consequence of failing to make the playoffs, that will be it. The Dodgers have to establish an actual philosophy for assembling a roster and organization.

The money is a huge help, but a plan would help much more. 

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