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Biggest Winners and Losers from Detroit Tigers’ Offseason

The Detroit Tigers have had yet another frenzied offseason. They didn’t waste any time getting started—within a few weeks of the season ending, Victor Martinez was re-signed, and they had picked up Joakim Soria’s option.

This early activity set the tone for the weeks to come. Other noteworthy additions included Yoenis Cespedes and Alfredo Simon, while Rick Porcello and Torii Hunter were among the significant departures.

Don’t expect the drama to end there, either. Detroit’s incumbent ace, Max Scherzer, is still unsigned with a possibility of coming back to the club.

Ultimately, some will win and others will lose in this revolving door of players. Let’s see who has (and hasn’t) fared well so far.

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Why the Detroit Tigers Should Trade Joakim Soria

Joakim Soria had a forgettable time with the Detroit Tigers last season. After being shipped over in a trade from Texas he pitched poorly in the regular season (4.91 ERA), and even worse in the postseason (0-1, 45.00 ERA in two games).

Despite Soria’s travails in the old English D, the Tigers still picked up his one-year option in October. He projects to be the setup man for closer Joe Nathan in 2015.

With this pair in their bullpen, Detroit boasts the luxury of two relievers who both rank in the top 10 in saves among active players.

Owning two premium arms at the back end of their bullpen puts the Tigers in a very strong position. Elite stoppers are among the game’s hottest commodities, and needy teams are often willing to trade away their prized talent in order to secure their services. A prime example of this is the Los Angeles Angels coughing up four prospects to the Padres in exchange for Huston Street last year.

Despite the milk turning sour for Soria in Motown, his resume still places him among baseball’s best relief pitchers. Before shifting to Detroit, he was lights out in a Rangers’ uniform in 2014. Check out the righty’s numbers compared to his peers:

Soria compiled these stats while racking up 17 saves, which raised his career total to 178. This man is a lockdown closer when given the opportunity.

While the Tigers are content to use him in a setup role, other MLB teams would relish the opportunity to install him as their closer. So, which teams would be viable candidates?

The Toronto Blue Jays are one club that quickly spring to mind. The acquisitions of Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders this offseason prove that their switch to win-now mode is genuine.

Would Soria be an ideal fit north of the border? You betcha.

They are currently without a proven closer, and rumor has it that the Jays are now shopping the trade market for one.

What’s in it for Detroit?

The Tigers have dotted a lot of i’s and crossed plenty of t’s already this winter. The signing of Tom Gorzelanny earlier this week was just their latest piece of business.

But, while the 32-year-old veteran is a sound pick-up, he is not the deadly southpaw Detroit is searching for. It so happens that the Blue Jays possess just the right man.

Brett Cecil emerged as one of the best lefty relievers in the American League last season. According to Fangraphs, the 28-year-old ranked seventh in the AL in K/9 (12.83) and eighth in FIP (2.34) for qualified relievers.

Over the past two decades, a litany of lefties has been trusted to do the business for Detroit. The likes of Phil Coke, Ian Krol (who may still emerge), Daniel Schlereth, Duane Below, Charlie Furbush, Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, Jamie Walker, Heath Murray, Bill Krueger and others have never quite cut the mustard in a Tigers’ uniform. Cecil would provide them with the southpaw that they have been coveting for many years.

Not since the days of Willie Hernandez in the 1980’s has Detroit boasted an imposing left-hander. A quarter of a century has been more than enough time to wait for the next one. Cecil would fulfil a different role to Detroit’s former Cy Young Award-winning closer, but he could be nearly as valuable.

There would be other benefits to acquiring the Blue Jays’ lefty. He is much cheaper than Soria, and as blessyouboys.com recently reported, Detroit is currently only a few Joel Hanrahan incentives away from passing the luxury-tax threshold. Additionally, Cecil has two years of team control left until he becomes a free agent—Soria has one.

While Cecil would be a significant loss for the Jays, they would still have the arms to absorb it. Aaron Loup and up-and-comer Rob Rasmussen give them two solid southpaws out of the pen to build a bridge to Soria as closer.

Detroit also has cover if they were to lose their eighth-inning man. Closer-in-waiting Bruce Rondon, Hanrahan (100 career saves) Al Alburquerque, as well as Cecil, would give Detroit plenty of late-inning options.

Tigers’ fans with long memories will recall that the acquisition of Hernandez occurred prior to the 1984 championship-winning season. It is probably drawing a long bow to suggest that a Soria-Cecil swap would lead Detroit to the Promised Land. But, it would cap a pretty darn good offseason in the Motor City.

 

Unless otherwise stated, all stats in this article are courtesy of baseballreference.com

 

Please note that the stats in the table were Soria‘s with Texas only

 

Hit me up on Twitter: @jdunc1979

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


3 Detroit Tigers New Year’s Resolutions

Another unsuccessful bid for a World Series title in 2014 has again prompted an offseason of introspection for the Detroit Tigers. Tweaking their talented—albeit flawedteams has kept them highly active on the hot stove in recent years. This winter has been no different.

Here’s a reminder of what’s happened so far:

  • In: Yoenis Cespedes (OF), Shane Greene (SP), Alfredo Simon (SP), Alex Wilson (RP), Anthony Gose (OF), Josh Zeid (RP)
  • Out: Torii Hunter (OF), Rick Porcello (SP), Eugenio Suarez (SS), Jim Johnson (RP), Jonathon Crawford (SP), Devon Travis (2B)
  • Unsigned: Max Scherzer (SP), Phil Coke (RP)

What do these changes mean for Detroit?

With Porcello and probably Scherzer headed for new pastures, it appears that the team ethos of building around the game’s most dominant starting rotation has ended. The Tigers will now have to make do with Greene and Simon behind a strong top three of David Price, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander.

The addition of Gose consolidates the theme of increased athleticism that began with the acquisitions of Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis last year. The team has also cranked up defense with the capture of Cespedes.

If the Tigers are to get their hands on the Holy Grail, then they will need to make everything click. Fulfillment of these three New Year’s resolutions may help make this happen.

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The Detroit Tigers’ Best Free-Agency Backup Plans If They Miss on Top Targets

The Detroit Tigers have had a productive offseason to this point. Their biggest priority, Victor Martinez, was promptly inked for another four years, and signings/trades have also yielded Joakim Soria, Alex Avila, Anthony Gose, Joel Hanrahan and Josh Zeid.

Not bad for seven weeks’ work.

Assembling Detroit’s squad won’t stop there. Despite answering questions regarding designated hitter, catcher and, to a degree, center field, one glaring blemish still remains: the bullpen.

Speaking recently to Matt Dery on Detroit Sports 105.1 radio, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports believes it is essential that Detroit continues upgrading its relief stocks: “This (signing Hanrahan) can’t be the end of their bullpen spending. You cannot allow the bullpen to be your downfall for the third straight year.”

But with considerable cash already spent, what can we expect from team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski? His recent words suggest continued investment but of a more subtle nature, per Chris Iott of MLive: “I’m not saying we’re done, but sometimes they’re not the big splashy ones. They don’t have to be big dollars and big splashes.”

Detroit is particularly thin at left-handed relief. Andrew Miller is by far the best lefty available and arguably the best reliever overall on the market. Tigers fans would be tickled pink if their former first-round pick once again donned the home blue and whites; however, Dombrowski’s words seem to imply that Miller is not on the team’s radar.

There are still plenty of other fish in the sea that Detroit may wish to cast a line at if, indeed, Miller is beyond its ambitions.

We cannot forget that there are also internal options. Blaine Hardy was good last season until his performances dropped off late in the year. Ian Krol had an excellent start to the season (2.33 ERA in April-May), but he was awful after that. Kyle Ryan, whom manager Brad Ausmus turned to a few times out of the bullpen in September, is another alternative.

But if the Tigers do decide to look externally, these are the best candidates…

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Why the Detroit Tigers Need to Pick Up Alex Avila’s Option for 2015

The Detroit Tigers don’t have long to decide about the future of catcher Alex Avila:

Detroit would be wise to re-sign Avila for another season. A catcher’s first job is to play solid defense, and to say Avila was solid behind the dish in 2014 would be an understatement—he was outstanding.

In addition to handling Detroit’s pitching staff with aplomb, Avila was highly effective at neutralising the opposition’s running game. The 27-year-old gunned down 34 percent of would-be base stealers (second in MLB) this season.

Avila also made one of the best defensive plays of the year when he climbed the screen at Comerica Park to make a Spider-Man-style catch in September.

His excellent defensive play was recognised when he finished among the finalists for the 2014 American League Gold Glove—ultimately won by Kansas City’s Salvador Perez.

On the offensive side, Avila’s contributions have caused more than a few groans in Motown in recent times. This is especially true for fans who still see him through the prism of his breakout season three years ago. In 2011, Avila emerged as Detroit’s everyday catcher, with his offensive numbers (.295, 18 HR, 82 RBI) convincing many people that he would be the Tigers’ everyday backstop for the next decade.

As the table below shows, Avila has been unable to reproduce anywhere near that level since. In fact, since the initial big dip in 2012, his productivity has dropped a little more each year.

Avila is not the offensive player he was in 2011, and he may never be again. However, what his bat does provide for the team is by no means terrible. His ability to walk and provide occasional pop helped him post an OPS of .686 this season—not far below the AL mean (.706).

Also, that bit of pop has often been of a timely nature. According to Matthew B. Mowery of The Oakland Press, three of Avila’s 11 home runs this year gave Detroit the lead and each came in the eighth inning or later—two in extra innings.

His left-handed bat also provides a good balance to Detroit’s lineup. Of the Tigers’ nine everyday players in 2014, only Avila and switch-hitter Victor Martinez hit from the left side. Detroit cannot afford to lose a lefty, especially since prospect Steven Moya may not be ready to face big league pitching next season.

So, with all things considered, where does Avila’s productivity place him among his peers? Perhaps the sabermetricians can decide for us.

As wins above replacement (WAR) combines both offensive and defensive data, it is the most comprehensive sabermetric stat for evaluating players. Avila’s WAR (2.1) ranked 13th out of 23 MLB catchers (minimum 400 at bats) in 2014, according to FanGraphs.

It is fair to conclude from this information that Avila is an average MLB player. So why should an ambitious, big-spending club like the Tigers settle for mediocrity?

Because picking up Avila’s option is only a one-year commitment, and the team will need him more in 2015 than it will afterward.

James McCann is the heir apparent at catcher, and he should be ready to usurp Avila’s position soon. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut in 2014 and has impressed at all levels in the Tigers system. He is close but not ready yet for everyday duties.

The optimal scenario for next year would be these two playing a catcher platoon. That would enable McCann to ease his way into the Detroit lineup and prove himself at this level.

At $5.4 million, Avila is not an expensive 12-month option for Detroit. There is also a chance he could recapture his 2011 form. You never know.

Call him mediocre if you like, but bringing Avila back is a pragmatic decision for the Tigers. With a shortage of lefty hitters and no ready successors, he is their best choice for starting backstop next Opening Day.

Worries about his three concussions last season have also been put to bed after a recent interview with Chris Iott of MLive.

Of course, Dave Dombrowski, the Tigers’ president, CEO and general manager, may choose to scour the trade market in search a new catcher. That is never out of the question.

If not, Avila will do—and be just fine too.

 

Unless otherwise stated, all stats in this article are courtesy of ESPN.com.

Follow me on Twitter: @jdunc1979

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Early Takeaways from the Detroit Tigers’ September Call-Ups

Earlier this month, the Detroit Tigers expanded their playing roster with the annual September call-ups. This coterie of youngsters has arrived in Motown at the back end of Detroit’s roller-coaster season. They may play an important role, as the Tigers are currently looking up in both the division and wild-card standings and chasing their fourth consecutive berth in the postseason.

The newcomers arrived in two waves, with the first batch coming on September 1:

The second installment landed in Detroit a day later:

Undoubtedly, starting pitcher Kyle Lobstein has made the most profound impact on the team. The 6’3southpaw has been inserted into Detroit’s rotation, with Anibal Sanchez continuing to sit out with a pectoral injury.

Expectations were not high for Lobstein upon his arrival in Detroit. His numbers at Toledo promised little for a step up to the highest level: 9-11, 4.03 ERA, 1.48 WHIP.

Speaking on 1130 WDFN The Fan, MLives James Schmehl did not have high hopes for the tall lefty:Lobstein, in my eyes, is not a starting pitcher in the major leagues. I think eventually he could potentially be a long reliever, but I dont see him as a starting pitcher.

However, the Arizona native has defied those low expectations since donning a Tigers uniform. In four appearances, including three starts, Lobstein’s numbers have been impressive: 1-0, 2.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. Detroit has won each of his starts, which have all been crucial.

Arguably, he has been Detroit’s best starter during this span. Max Scherzer (5.09), David Price (7.13), Rick Porcello (5.09) and Justin Verlander (4.79) all have higher ERAs and suffered at least one defeat in their last three starts.

It should be noted that only Lobstein’s last two appearances came after his September call-up. His first and second outings came during his initial stint in late August, before he was briefly optioned back to Toledo.

Recent reports indicate that Sanchez is making progress in his recovery and may soon return to Detroit. If so, Lobstein will likely be transferred to the bullpen. Until that happens, he remains a key member of Detroit’s rotation.

Apart from Lobstein, the other new additions have so far spent limited time on the diamond.

Detroit’s regular starters are not likely to be rested while the team is in the thick of the playoff hunt. Experimentation with youth may be a feature of non-contending teams in the weeks to come, but the Tigers will probably offer only occasional cameos to their call-ups.

So far, they have made favourable impressions when given opportunities.

Outfielders Tyler Collins and Steven Moya are each 2-for-4, including a three-run homer from Collins in Detroit’s 12-1 rout of Cleveland last Thursday.

Highly touted catcher James McCann made his first big league start over the weekend against San Francisco. The 24-year-old went 0-for-3 but hit the ball hard and looked solid defensively.

Hernan Perez has made a solitary start at shortstop and has been on base twice in four plate appearances.

The only hiccup for the position players has been Collins’ missed catch on a fly ball in his only start.

On the pitching side, Kyle Ryan and Buck Farmer—who made their starting debuts in August—have each made a single appearance out of the bullpen in September. These outings were both in mop-up roles during last Friday’s 8-2 defeat to the Giants.

Apart from Lobstein, the September rookies will continue to see only snippets of playing time in the season’s final three weeks.

High-stakes baseball should compel manager Brad Ausmus to use his best 10 players day in and day out. However, the rookies will add depth to the team and be used in strategic matchups. For instance, Ryan will be used to ice opposing left-handed hitters, particularly when Blaine Hardy and Phil Coke need a break.

Moya and Collins are also likely to feature as pinch hitters. Detroit is a right-hand-dominant lineup, so this pair of lefties could be brought off the bench to face some right-handed pitchers. While this is not the most glorified of roles, history shows that pinch hits from unlikely sources can sometimes be the difference between winning and losing big games.

Many will remember Francisco Cabrera—an unknown player at the timestroking the game-winning hit for the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. Dramatic situations like these may not emerge for the Tigers, but their bench players will get the chance to deliver at some stage.

It must be remembered that, while their game time is limited in the interim, these September call-ups are Detroit’s players of the future. Glimpses of their talents this month promise much in the years to come.

But don’t consider them “cheerleaders only” just yet.

If Detroit manages to leapfrog the Kansas City Royals and/or the Seattle Mariners into the playoffs, one or two may join the October party. The ride for this group has only just begun.

 

All stats in this article are courtesy of MLB.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Detroit Tigers: What Rick Porcello’s Recent Success Means for the Team

The Detroit Tigers are once again championship contenders in 2014. At 55-41 and 6.5 games clear of their nearest division rival, they are poised to make another run at an elusive World Series title. Key to their success so far has been the breakout season of starting pitcher Rick Porcello. The tall right-hander has been an integral part of the team’s success at a time when it really needed him to raise his game.

The offseason exit of Doug Fister via trade caused much consternation in Detroit. Fister had an excellent two-and-half-year stint as a Tiger, winning 45 games (including postseason). With big shoes to fill, literally and figuratively, Porcello was the man counted on to pick up the slack left by his former teammate.

Detroit’s starting rotation has been one of its main strengths in recent years. Despite Fister’s aforementioned departure and the struggles of Justin Verlander (career-worst 4.84 ERA), Porcello has helped to maintain its high quality through the season’s first four months. Tigers starters have combined for 44 wins (first in AL) and also rank in the top five in ERA, WHIP and batting average against.

Porcello’s performances so far this season have been his finest as an MLB player. His 12 wins are equal highest in the majors and only one shy of his career high for a full season. Also, his ERA (3.39), WHIP (1.18) and batting average against (.253) are all career-best marks.

At times, Porcello has completely dominated opposing lineups. The New Jersey native notched six-straight wins during April-May, followed by a 25.1-inning scoreless streak in June-July. His latter feat included back-to-back complete-game shutouts, one of which came against the AL’s second-best offense—Oakland.

With 119.1 innings already logged, Porcello is on target to pass 200 IP in a season for the first time in his career. His ability to go deeper into ballgames has also left Detroit’s shaky bullpen (ERA 4.36) less exposed and provided it with some much-needed rest.

Reflecting on Porcello’s career year beckons the question: How has he jumped from mediocre MLB pitcher to very good MLB pitcher in 2014?

One thing is for certain, it is not through striking hitters out. Unlike some of his Tigers brethren (e.g. Max Scherzer), Porcello does not possess the arm to collect punch-outs en masse. With a heater averaging 92 mph, the righty needs to retire opposing hitters through other methods. Inducing ground-ball outs via his sinker has been his modus operandi so far in his career. Porcello’s dependency on this pitch is highlighted by his Percentage Pitch Usage stats from his rookie year (courtesy of Brooks Baseball). They reveal that he threw sinkers 60.01 percent of the time during that season.

However, the 2014 version of Porcello is far less reliant on his sinker. He still benefits from balls hit on the ground—19 double plays (second in AL) and a 48.2 ground-ball percentage attest to that—but he has improved his secondary pitches, enabling him to use them more often to record outs.

One particularly noticeable difference has been the increased use of his curveball. He now throws it roughly five times more often than he did back in 2010-2011.

According to Brooks Baseball, his curve is getting more horizontal movement (7.34 inches) than at any other time in his career. His hook is proving to be effective too as opponents have hit only .203 off it in 2014.

His changeup has been even more impressive. Opponents are hitting only .178, which is a 53-point decrease on last year. According to Fangraphs, his changeup RAR (Runs Saved Against Replacement) of 8.0 (third in AL) also demonstrates its effectiveness.

The sinker remains Porcello’s bread-and-butter pitch. And with the improvement of his complement pitches, it may now be even more effective. According to manager Brad Ausmus, per WXYZ Radio (subscription required), Porcello is at his best when he locates his sinker in the bottom half of the strike zone:

When Rick is getting groundball outs he’s doing the one thing right that he has to do—he’s keeping the sinker down in the strike zone. When the sinker’s down it’s got more depth to it, more movement and guys just get on top of the ball and it ends up on the ground.

After struggling against left-handed batters throughout his career, Porcello’s improvements have also helped him have more success against them this year. With lefties currently hitting only .240, this is the first year since his rookie season that he has held them to under a .300 clip.  

Porcello’s enhanced game shows how he has matured as a pitcher this year. Owning three above-average pitches demonstrates his evolution from a sinkerball pitcher into a pitcher possessing a sinkerball—and a good one at that. His morphing into a more complete pitcher may yet catapult him to a 20-win season and postseason success for Detroit.

Although the 25-year-old has not started a playoff game since 2011, his performances this year will leave Brad Ausmus with no choice but to install him into the postseason rotation. Any questions about whether he can perform against elite teams have already been answered. Against Detroit’s likely opponents in October—Oakland, Anaheim and BaltimorePorcello is 5-0 with a 1.31 ERA in five starts this season.

With Detroit failing to convert its postseason opportunities the past three years, it is still desperately seeking the right formula to go all the way. With Porcello now pitching at a higher level, it may be one step closer to breaking its three-decade drought.

Unless otherwise stated, stats in this article are courtesy of mlb.com

Please follow me on Twitter: @jdunc1979

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


5 Reasons Why Detroit Tigers Will Win the World Series

In 2013, the Detroit Tigers had many people convinced they might be baseball’s best team. Boasting arguably the game’s best pitcher (Max Scherzer) and inarguably its best hitter (Miguel Cabrera), they seemed to have the necessary weapons to dominate any opponent.

However, after qualifying for the playoffs for the third straight year, Detroit’s season ended again in disappointment. A superior Red Sox team dismantled the Tigers 4-2 in the ALCS. Something had to give.

The first step was a change in management. Jim Leyland retired, and Brad Ausmus was hired as manager. Second, subtle tinkering to the team roster—a trade here (Ian Kinsler) and a signing there (Rajai Davis)—has morphed it into a more versatile and successful unit in 2014. 

Detroit has begun this season in great style. Despite a four-game losing streak, the Tigers still maintain a stellar 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. With a record of 27-16, it is their best start to a season since the 1984 World Series-winning Tigers team.

ESPN’s Buster Olney commented on The Michael Kay Show this week about Detroit’s championship credentials: “Without a doubt the Tigers are the best team in baseball. Their lineup is so much more dynamic. They are settling their bullpen issues. That’s the team to beat.”

The following slides will list and describe the five main reasons why the Tigers’ title drought will end at 30 years.

 

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