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Jamie Moyer: Law of Averages Catching Up to Phillies’ Ageless Wonder

Jamie Moyer is still an effective major league pitcher.

And it’s still perfectly clear that National League lineups aren’t even close to catching up to the 47-year-old craftsman.

But over Moyer’s past three starts, it seems that the law of averages certainly has…

Jamie is suddenly losing games that he has pitched well enough to win. The incredible, coincidental run support that Moyer has received every fifth day from August 2006 through mid-May 2010 in Philadelphia simply isn’t there anymore.

The Phils have been shut out in each of Moyer’s past three games.

In Moyer’s three starts between May 2 and May 14, the Phillies scored a ridiculous 26 runs in his 21 innings on the mound (Moyer won each of those starts). Now, the Phillies haven’t scored in his last 21 innings.

But Jamie’s not the only Phillies pitcher dealing with a lack of offensive support these days. For example, Roy Halladay has received just two runs in his last 24 innings (and one of those runs was unearned).

It’s logical to think that receiving run support has come naturally for all Phillies pitchers over the past several seasons—that, in the long run, all pitchers receive roughly the same offensive backing.

However, the numbers seem to indicate that Moyer has been granted way more than his fair share of support since joining the club in 2006.

For example, Moyer has a 52-36 record with a 4.49 ERA in 113 games as a Phillie. Yet teammate Cole Hamels has an almost identical 53-37 record and a 3.68 ERA with the Phillies in 126 games.

Hamels has virtually the same Phillies career record as Moyer despite an ERA that is over three-quarters of a run lower.

Moyer is still virtually the same pitcher he was back in 2004, except he’s pitching for a much, much better team. In his 90 starts for the Seattle Mariners between ’04 and ’06, Jamie had a 4.64 ERA and a sub-.500 record of just 26-32.

Yet Moyer is 16 games over .500 with the Phillies, despite a very similar ERA of 4.49.  

Another comparison of Moyer and Hamels’ statistics reveals more of the same. In seven of his 32 starts in 2009, Hamels gave up three runs or fewer but did not get a win. Moyer had only two such games during his 25 starts last season.

In ’08, Hamels pitched a remarkable 10 games where he gave up two earned runs or fewer and DID NOT get a win. Yet his record was still 14-10.

In 2010, the Phillies have scored seven or more runs in all five of Moyer’s wins. Again, the Phillies have scored just two runs or fewer in three of Halladay’s seven wins.

Of course, the usually dependable run support for Jamie Moyer has been nowhere to be found in his past three starts. The lefty has pitched very well over that span but has seen his record fall to 5-5.

Bummer…

Guess all good things really do come to an end.

 

***Below is a list of the winningest pitchers since the start of 2007 (complete through May 31, 2010). Moyer is the only pitcher on this list to have an ERA above 4.00. His ERA is over 4.50. Jamie’s in some pretty good company…

Roy Halladay               60-31   2.96

CC Sabathia                 59-28   3.18

Justin Verlander          53-37   3.93

Adam Wainwright        51-26   3.04

Dan Haren                  50-31   3.40

Josh Beckett               50-24   3.97

Johan Santana            48-31   2.98

Derek Lowe                48-39   4.00

John Lackey               47-25   3.61

A.J. Burnett                47-29   3.90

Jamie Moyer             47-34   4.51

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Who Are These Guys? Padres’ Rotation Scoring Big for Nickels and Dimes

By now, everyone knows the 2010 Padres are very well so far in 2010. Currently at 26-18 and in first place in the NL West, they are this author’s biggest surprise of the first two months of the 2010 season, second to only the AL East’s amazing Blue Jays.

The Padres’ five-man rotation has been phenomal, and is making a COMBINED $9.5 million salaries for the 2010 season. Three of its five members are making under $500,000. By comparison, the Chicago White Sox are paying former Padre Jack Peavy $15 million this year.

Here’s a synopsis of the Padres 2010 rotation, complete with their salaries and also their individual statistics at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Can these Padres continue to compete?

In the sad-sack national league, anything is possible.

Begin Slideshow


Brad Lidge Shoots for Return to Phillies Bullpen Early Next Week

Phillies closer Brad Lidge, who has been on the disabled list with inflammation in his right elbow since May 15, said he will throw in the bullpen both today and Thursday while the Phillies visit the Mets at Citi Field.

Yesterday, Lidge received a cortisone injection for the second time in 2010 in hopes of easing the pain of his ailing right elbow. The Phillies hope Lidge can return to the Phillies’ bullpen early next week.

“It feels like it is,” said Lidge, asked if he feels the inflammation is gone. “The key is keeping it out. But I think we’ve figured out some things I can do to keep it out.”

Whether or not Lidge can keep the pain out is a big question—but not the only one facing the Phillies. It’s uncertain whether the Phillies will make Lidge their closer once he returns.

The Phils bullpen has a 3.69 ERA so far the year, the exact same ERA as their starting pitching staff. But that’s misleading. While the Phillies rotation has collectively been excellent through the first seven weeks of 2010, the bullpen has been anything but impressive in close games.

Jose Contreras, the Phillies’ current closer, has been sensational. The 38-year-old has allowed just one run in 14.2 innings this season. The opposition is hitting .163 against him, while he’s walked just two and struck out 20.

With Contreras pitching so well, it’s likely the Phillies will welcome Lidge back with a few appearances in semi-lopsided, no-pressure games.

If Brad is effective in those situations, he could be used as the club’s setup man in place of either Chad Durbin or Danys Baez. Ryan Madson, the most ineffective pitcher in the Phillies bullpen this season, is not expected to return from his broken toe until the end of June.

Lidge made his first major league appearance of the season in a 9-1 loss to the Mets back on April 30 at Citizens Bank Park, where he gave up a home run to the first batter he faced (former Phillie catcher Rod Barajas). Lidge only recorded one out before being removed from the game.

Two weeks later, after pitching in three other games, Brad was back on the DL.

Manager Charlie Manuel will no doubt be very careful not to overwork Lidge when he returns from the DL, whether he’s being used as closer, setup man, or mop-up man.

Decisions, decisions for the Phillies.

But the Phillies’ only goal for right now is to get Lidge healthy for the first time in 13 months (thanks again for your honesty this time, Brad).

Getting Jimmy Rollins back in the lineup would be nice too…

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About Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies: Is It Time To Worry?

The author of this column has an offer to make:

He will gladly challenge anyone to a fistfight who even thinks about blaming Roy Halladay’s tough start against the Red Sox on his high pitch counts in previous games.

Don’t rip Roy. Don’t second-guess Charlie. Don’t go there.

But watching the Phillies get their butts kicked by Boston continues to be an annual interleague ritual.

For more on that, click here. It ain’t pretty.

Sunday’s final score of 8-3 was misleading. It wasn’t that close. The Phillies were embarrassed, even with their three cosmetic, hollow ninth-inning runs.

Their play on Sunday (and Saturday, too) was totally disheartening, but not at all because of Mr. Halladay’s effort.

No, Roy wasn’t great against the Sox. Not even he can be every time. But his final pitching line in the box score is extremely misleading. The Phils ace deserved a much better fate.

A Kevin Youkilis second-inning triple set the stage for Boston’s first run. The ball was in center fielder Shane Victorino’s mitt as he flagged down the drive to deep center. Tough play for Shane, but a play he usually makes.

Two innings later, Adrian Beltre’s tailor-made double-play grounder with the bases loaded went right through third baseman Greg Dobbs’ legs, leading to two runs and a 3-0 Boston lead.

Halladay could have easily had a shutout through five innings had those plays been made. By the time the Sox tacked on four runs in the sixth to make it 7-0, it was obvious that things just weren’t meant to be…  

Once again, the Phillies offense came up small behind their ace. In five of Halladay’s 10 starts, the Phils have scored two runs or less with him on the mound. Four runs of support for Doc should be enough to win most every game. Philly has scored just a single run in its last 16 innings with Roy out there.

Halladay still has six wins this season, but he could easily have eight if only he got the same run support that teammate Jamie Moyer has received over his years in Philly.

Meanwhile, Boston starters Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield entered this weekend’s series with a combined two wins in 10 starts a 6.21 ERA during 2010.

Teams were teeing off these guys. Apparently not the Phillies.

Dike-K and Wake combined to shut out the Phils on six hits in 16 total innings.

Of course, the Phils offense just isn’t the same without Jimmy Rollins, replaced on the 15-day DL this Saturday. High-quality shortstops such as J-Roll are extremely rare, the main reason why the Phillies should make re-signing him a much higher priority than re-upping two-month legend Jayson Werth.

So far this season we’ve seen just how much the Phils miss Jimmy’s multi-faceted offense and steel trap-tight defense.

But injuries are part of the game. No excuses, the Phillies missed a great chance this weekend.

Boston came into the series at just 22-20, good for fourth place in the ultra-competitive AL East. The Phils wouldn’t be facing Boston’s two best starters (Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz) while the Sox would be facing the Phillies’ two best (Cole Hamels and Halladay). In the NL park, the Sox wouldn’t be able to use red-hot David Ortiz as a DH, while Boston’s bullpen had been worked extremely hard in its two-game Monday and Tuesday series at the Yankees.

The Phils even had tons of momentum after taking Friday’s series opener, 5-1, behind Cole Hamels’ awesome performance.

But old habits die hard. The Phils are now 5-16 against the Red Sox since 2004 and 11-25 overall in interleague play since 2008. Yeah, and the 2010 interleague play schedule resumes in just a few weeks. Gulp.

As always, the key as a fan is to keep each loss, and win, in perspective.

It’s hard for any fan not to be extremely pleased with the Phillies current 26-17 record, and come July, maybe their lineup and pitching staff will be back to almost full strength.

The New York Mets will continue to whine about their injuries (as always) while the Phillies will continue to win despite their own.

Of course, these Phillies always get better as October inches closer.

In case the author wasn’t clear enough, the answer to the headline question is a resounding NO.  

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Philadelphia Phillies-Boston Red Sox Preview: Can the Phillies Rock the Sox?

The Red Sox have the Phillies’ number.

That first became evident when Boston ousted Philly in the 1915 World Series, and little changed once interleague play began over 80 years later.

The Phillies are just 15-22 against the Red Sox since their interleague dates began in 1997. Philly and Boston have met in interleague play every season except 2002 and 2007.

Back to the present…

After splitting four home games with the lowly Pirates and Cubs, the Phillies are bracing for another visit from their past and present tormentor—the Bean Town Sox.

For the fifth time in six years, the Phillies host their perennial AL nemesis. And this weekend at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies will try to beat Boston in a three-game series for the first time in seven years.

The Phils and Sox have been two of the elite ball clubs in baseball over the past several seasons, but their head-to-head series has been brutally one-sided.

The Phillies have gone 4-14 against the Red Sox in their 18 meetings since 2004. The Sox are 9-3 all-time at Citizens Bank Park, and have averaged over 6.5 runs per game in those 12 contests.

It’s a good thing the Rays squeaked by the Sox in the 2008 ALCS. Otherwise, the World Series might have not ended as well as it did for the Phillies…but let’s not even go there.

The last time the Phillies beat Boston in a best-of-three series was way back in 2003 during their final season at Veterans Stadium. Let’s turn back the clock…

On Saturday, June 22, a slugging Phillies first baseman named Jim Thome tied the game in the eighth inning with a homer. He did it again with two outs in the 12th inning. Finally, Philadelphia’s backup catcher Todd Pratt ended a wild summer afternoon at the ball yard with a two-run walk-off home run that gave the Phils a stunning 6-5 win in 13 innings.

Todd who?

The following afternoon, Philadelphia’s brash 22-year-old starting pitcher named Brett Myers hurled the first complete game of his career, a three-hit shutout of the Red Sox in a 5-0 Phillies win. 60,960 fans filled the Vet that day, mainly thanks to the Mike Schmidt Bobblehead Figurine being given away free to all fans.

Grady Little was the Sox manager back then too, but Terry Francona has been Boston’s skipper since 2004. Over the years, Francona’s Sox have won all six of their interleague series against the Phillies. Boy, that baseball genius Terry sure knows how to manage against his former club. Either that, or he’s just been blessed with some really damn good players during his tenure…

Back to the present…

The Cubs’ overaggressive, brain-dead hitters were more than happy to hack away at Jose Contreras’ out-of-the-strike-zone pitches in the ninth inning of Thursday’s game.

But faced with a similar circumstance, the Red Sox will probably exhibit a little more discipline.

Then again, the Philly-Boston mojo appears to finally be heading in Philadelphia’s favor, if last week’s shocking Flyers rally against the Bruins in the NHL playoffs was any indication.

Hopefully, the good vibes remaining from that historic Philadelphia-Boston series have left the Wachovia Center’s ice rink and moved across Pattison Avenue to Philly’s summertime Money Pit.

The Phillies will desperately need all the good mojo they can get this weekend.  

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What Cole Hamels Can Learn from Roy Halladay

This just in: Roy Halladay is one of a kind.

He’s been baseball’s best pitcher over the past decade and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. With that said, most major league pitchers can probably improve themselves simply by watching Doc work his mastery on the mound like clockwork.

Halladay’s teammate, Cole Hamels, can probably learn a valuable lesson from Roy, too.

What lesson? Well, it has nothing to do with Cole’s release point, him learning a new pitch, or tweaking the precise degree of his arm slot.

It has everything to do with mentality.

In Philadelphia, it’s widely believed that Hamels’ drop-off in performance since the 2008 World Series is due to his lack of focus, composure, and confidence on the pitching slab.

Of course, sports fans love to play psychiatrist.

By nature, we love to try to get into the minds of athletes and try to explain their thought process at a given time. It’s fun, but ultimately impossible to know for sure. Yeah, former-athlete TV and radio analysts, who are paid to “analyze,” are guilty of this too, not just in baseball.

But the fact remains that only one person knows just how irritated Cole Hamels gets when the opposing pitcher reaches base, when a defensive play isn’t made behind him, when he gets “squeezed” by the umpire, or when a nut job fan runs onto the field when he’s three outs away from a complete-game shutout.

And that one person is Cole Hamels.

However, it does indeed seem that Hamels has been hampered by a shortage of mental toughness in handling adversity. The one thing that we know for sure is that he has constantly been victimized by the “big inning” since the start of 2009.

Hamels can look like Steve Carlton in his prime for five innings, but mutate into Bruce Chen during the sixth. Sometimes, Cole’s one bad inning costs him, and his team, a victory.

In 2010, Hamels has suffered through an inning in which he’s given up three or more runs in four of his eight starts…each time after he looked unhittable in the innings prior.

Those numbers are consistent with his 2009 performance, as he gave up at least three runs in an inning in 36 percent of his starts (13 of his 36 starts, including the postseason).

By comparison, Hamels surrendered three or more runs in a particular inning in just 23 percent of his starts during the 2008 season (nine out of his 38 total starts).

Of course, Roy Halladay isn’t nearly as susceptible to the big inning, in part because he’s emotionally indestructible.

Never was Halladay’s toughness more evident than in his May 7 start at Citizens Bank Park against the St. Louis Cardinals. Halladay won the game, 7-2, and improved his record to 6-1 because he rose to the occasion in the face of adversity and bad luck, which could have easily victimized a lesser composed pitcher.

With the Phillies leading 3-0 in the top of the second inning, Philadelphia’s defense committed two errors, including a three-base error on Jayson Werth. Of course, Halladay minimized the damage and allowed just one unearned run to score.

In the fifth inning (protecting a 5-1 lead), Halladay was every bit as much at odds with home plate umpire Mike Everitt’s interpretation of the strike zone as he was with the St. Louis hitters. Halladay uncharacteristically walked two during the inning, including a free pass to Albert Pujols that loaded the bases with two outs. Yet, Halladay struck out Matt Holliday to preserve the Phils’ four-run pad.

Immediately after recording the inning-ending strikeout, Halladay approached home plate umpire Everitt to question why several seemingly good pitches to Pujols and Holliday were called balls. Halladay appeared cool and calm throughout the discussion and, as usual, was in complete command.

Cole Hamels, on the other hand, has been repeatedly undone by instances of poor defense and “close” umpiring calls that don’t go his way. Halladay overcame both those obstacles in a four-inning span on May 7.

Over the past several years, Hamels has reportedly used 47-year-old teammate Jamie Moyer as his personal brochure to The Art of Pitching. Hopefully by now, Hamels has tried to learn a thing or two about mental resolve from Doc Halladay.  

Of course, no one can be as good as Roy Halladay.

But perhaps the Phils young southpaw can mature just by discussing with Doc, and studying, his unflappable demeanor on the mound.

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How DeSean Jackson vs. Donovan McNabb Resembles Jimmy Rollins vs. the Mets

No matter how many consecutive sellouts the Phillies have at Citizens Bank Park (they’re up to 58, by the way), the Eagles are always a hot topic.

Especially when the topic is in any way, shape, or form connected to Donovan McNabb.

McNabb is back in the Philadelphia headlines, this time, responding to comments that former Eagle teammate DeSean Jackson made recently to the Sporting News. 

“I don’t think we lost anything, even with McNabb being gone,” Jackson told SN, while looking forward to the upcoming season and the subsequent quarterback change. “I am very happy with the decision. Playing with Kevin Kolb last year, I know what he’s capable of doing. I see his playmaking ability and his leadership.”

McNabb responded as one might expect, by pretty much downplaying everything. No big deal.

As much as the media would love us to believe the contrary, DeSean Jackson is not Terrell Owens. Although, a big mouth, lots of skill, and one superagent named Drew Rosenhaus are all common denominators between the two primetime wideouts.

Still, the media has also done its best to stir up the indirect exchange of words between Jackson and McNabb, just as it did back in 2007 when a brash Philadelphia shortstop named Jimmy Rollins dared to challenge the alleged supremacy of the reigning NL East champion New York Mets for the upcoming season.

“I think we are the team to beat—finally,” Rollins told the media in January 2007.

Rollins’ words instantly created a national firestorm. The Mets players, their fans, and media members all took J-Roll’s comment as an undisputed slight against their team.

Yet, what the majority of the public probably didn’t know was that Rollins was addressing a question posed by a reporter who directly asked Jimmy if he felt the Phils were the team to beat in the NL East in 2007.

No media outlet EVER clarified Rollins words by saying he was responding to a question.

What was Rollins supposed to say?

No, we won’t be able to compete with the Mets, especially with guys like Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton now anchoring our starting pitching staff.

Similarly, what is DeSean Jackson supposed to say about his outlook for 2010?

No, I think we’ll struggle this season. People who are glad to see McNabb out of town should be careful what they wish for.

Really, Jackson’s comments were appropriate and hardly surprising.

At least not nearly as stunning as the postgame quotes made by Donovan McNabb himself, following the Eagles horrific 24-0 loss to the Cowboys on January 2 that cost his team the NFC East title and also the NFC’s second-overall playoff seed.

“We showed our youth,” McNabb said that day. “We showed our youth in situations where everyone began to look around to see who was going to make the play instead of stepping up and making that play.”

Ouch. That’s an undeniable zinger delivered by the quarterback who has always been portrayed as the consummate team leader by the national media and supposedly has always handled tough times with the up most level of class.

After hearing Donovan throw his offensive teammates (most in their early to mid 20’s) under the bus in the biggest game of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if DeSean had chosen to hit the greatest quarterback in Eagles history with a reciprocating shot to the solar plexus once the season came to a brutal ending just six days later.

But DeSean Jackson hasn’t come close to doing anything like that, even five months after McNabb’s slight, despite the national media’s desire to make us believe he has.

If these are the most controversial comments DeSean Jackson makes all year, then we should consider ourselves lucky.

By the way, the Phillies hope to have Rollins back in their starting lineup by the end of May. After all, baseball season is in full swing…football season isn’t.

In the meantime, don’t buy into all the controversial headline propaganda the media delivers.

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Should Pat Burrell Return to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011?

“Now batting for the Phillies, leftfielder Pat Burrell!”

Longtime Phillies’ public address announcer Dan Baker called Pat the Bat’s name into the microphone nearly 2,700 times from 2000 through 2008. And, actually, it might not be such a bad thing if Baker had a few more chances to announce it in 2011.  

In 2008, Burrell’s arrival to home plate at Citizens Bank Park was accompanied each time by the sound of Don Henley’s ‘80s classic, “Dirty Laundry.”

I make my living off the evening news, just give me something, something I can use…

Could Burrell be introduced by the same soundtrack next year in Philly? Could Raul Ibanez move to right field so Pat could return to left?

Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

All we know for sure right now is that the Phillies must have a right-handed outfield bat in the middle of their lineup in 2011. They must. We also know that current Phils’ right fielder Jayson Werth may not be a Philly next season.

Could Pat Burrell, the 33-year-old, former No. 1-overall draft pick in 1998, come back?

He could. And he should if Werth doesn’t stick around.

Pat signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Rays after 2008. Just think of how cheap the Phillies will be able to get him when his 2010 contract expires. We know Pat will play for a bargain-basement price in 2011, which, if signed by the Phillies, would give the Phils financial freedom to address their pitching concerns.

Pat has a proven track record. He ranks third on the Phillies’ all-time home run list and seventh in total RBI. But to be blunt, Burrell’s been a total disaster down in Tampa the past two years.

Ironically, it’s safe to say Pat’s finest moment since signing with the Rays in January 2009 came on a glorious spring day in which he was a few hundred miles removed from his Rays’ teammates.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009: Burrell returned to Philadelphia to collect his 2008 World Series ring, and also received a tearful embrace from former Phils GM Pat Gillick and a roaring ovation from the 45,000 Citizens Bank Park fans drowning in ecstasy all around him (not to be taken literally).

But 2009 was by far Burrell’s worst season since 2003. Pat had just 14 HR, 64 RBI, and a .221 average in 122 games as a Ray.

He hasn’t exactly begun 2010 too well. Burrell is currently hitting .229 with two HR and 13 RBI.

In the AL, Burrell has exclusively been used as a DH, sharing time with Tampa’s Willy Aybar. Right now, Burrell’s a complete afterthought in one of baseball’s most dynamic lineups.

And of course, he wouldn’t be expected to put up huge numbers if he were to return to Philly. He would merely exist to break up the lineup’s string of lefties, thus hitting in the lucrative spot between Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.

One small plus is that Pat’s career average against lefties is a respectable .266. His career average against righties is just .250.

Say what you want about Pat Burrell, but, like most Phillies on the current squad, he always makes opposing pitchers work. He is selective at the dish, and for years he helped the Phillies quickly elevate the opposing starter’s pitch count on a nightly basis. It’s worth mentioning because it’s pretty much his only similarity to Jayson Werth.

Actually, Pat was sometimes patient to a fault. His plate discipline could easily be interpreted as a relative lack of aggression. In 2005, Burrell finished second in the NL with 117 RBI despite leading the majors in being called out on strikes.

In ’05, a whopping 68 of Burrell’s 160 strikeouts came while window shopping at a called third. Honestly, there were times when it seemed he’d be trying to coax a walk with the game on the line instead of trying to deliver a clutch base hit.

Of course, Burrell also ranks second on the Phillies’ all-time list in strikeouts and fifth all-time in walks.

But still, bringing Burrell back is safe from a public relations standpoint.

Sure, Burrell got booed when things got tough here. But the Philly fans never spontaneously combusted on him the way they did two on his former teammates, the “so so” third baseman from Veterans Stadium and the right fielder who was allegedly afraid of the Citizens Bank Park out-of-town scoreboard.

Pat, if brought back, would be accepted by the fans. No question.

Rest assured, if Werth doesn’t return for 2011, the Phillies will have lots of potential replacement options.

So why shouldn’t Pat Burrell be one of them?

He wouldn’t put up all-star numbers, but he wouldn’t need to in this lineup. He’d just be a respectable, disciplined right-handed bat who would come at an absolute Dollar Tree price (by MLB standards).

If Jayson Werth walks, bringing Pat the Bat back in 2011 wouldn’t be a half-bad move.

People love it when you lose, they love dirty laundry…

Slowly fade down music, fade up mic. Take it away, Dan…

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