When it comes to Major League Baseball’s offseason, the speculation and rumors are at least half the fun.
The rest, of course, is actually finding out which players were traded for each other and who signed with what team and for how much.
With the hot stove burning up with news, reports and hearsay, it’s time to separate which stories have something to them and which ones don’t with a little “fact or fiction.”
The qualifying offer slump now has reached epic proportions, to the point where Major League Baseball should be at least a little worried that this still relatively recent format just isn’t going to hack it.
On Nov. 10, all 12 free agents who had received a qualifying offer (QO) this offseason rejected, meaning in the three-year history of this new wrinkle, the QO has gone a whopping and disturbing 0-for-34.
That’s right: Not a single one of the 34 players since 2012 has been enticed into inking a one-year contract at the average of the 125 highest player salaries—even though that rate might be above what some of them would receive on an average annual value (AAV) basis.
Here’s really where the problem comes in: The QO is attached to draft-pick compensation for no good reason.
If a team signs a player who declined the offer, said team loses a valuable first-round selection the ensuing June. (Unless it’s one of the first 10 picks, which are protected; in that case, the team forfeits its next-highest pick instead.)
This can, in some cases, drastically impact the market for such a free agent, because if teams are unwilling to surrender a selection (and the allotment from the draft bonus pool that comes with it), those clubs won’t go after a player in which they otherwise might have interest.
Meanwhile, the club that loses a QO decliner is rewarded with another draft choice (a compensation pick) at the end of the first round once the free agent signs elsewhere.
This allows teams to gamble that it’s worth tendering the QO and then hope a free agent will turn it down, thus simultaneously netting a draft pick for the team and undercutting the player’s market.
Now, this isn’t necessarily a big problem in the case of the top-tier free agents.
When a team already is willing to cough up nine figures to land, say, Max Scherzer or Pablo Sandoval this year, or Robinson Cano or Jacoby Ellsbury last year, surrendering a draft pick isn’t exactly a major deterrent.
But when it comes to the non-elite free agents, the QO can hinder the market—sometimes too much.
Think back to last winter, when Nelson Cruz’s asking price started out at about $75 million—a number he likely would not have landed even without the QO rejection, partly because he also was coming off a 50-game performance-enhancing drug-related suspension—only to drop until he had to sign a one-year pact with the Baltimore Orioles. In late February. For $8 million.
In the end, Cruz, who wound up being a massive bargain because he led MLB with 40 homers in 2014, would have made nearly twice as much had he simply said, “$14.1 million for a year? Sounds good to me!”
And he didn’t even get the worst of it. Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales said pish-posh to the QO—and then couldn’t find a team willing to relinquish a draft choice by inking them. Like, not one.
Here’s what Drew said to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe when he was still unsigned in mid-March:
You fight for the right to get to free agency, but then it takes a little bit away with draft-pick compensation attached to it. Nobody wants to give up that draft pick.
It’s unusual because I’m an experienced player, but because there’s a draft pick hanging over your head, it’s not really the free agency without strings attached.
Drew eventually returned to the Boston Red Sox for about $10 million in late May—two full months into the season—and with his tail firmly between his legs.
Morales had to wait until after the 2014 draft in June before the Minnesota Twins took pity on him with a prorated $12 million deal.
Drew and Morales, perhaps in part because they didn’t have a normal spring training and missed so much time, had especially poor 2014 seasons.
Those two, and Cruz—as well as the trio’s agents—obviously deserve a huge chunk of the blame for completely misreading their markets.
If you think the players and their reps learned their lesson, though, think again: Both Cruz and starting pitcher Ervin Santana, who also turned down the QO last offseason (more on him below), are going through the process all over again this year.
But that doesn’t mean the current qualifying offer system, which has gone 0-for-34 and resulted in its share of unintended consequences for players and teams alike, couldn’t use fixing—or at least an adjustment or two.
Here are some suggestions.
Up the Salary Average Ante
Instead of making the QO worth an average of the top 125 player salaries, make it an average of, say, the top 100 or even the top 75 AAVs.
The offer still would be only for one season, but that would hike up the pay to the point where one of two things would be bound to happen.
Either teams would be much more hesitant about tendering the QO to a borderline candidate for fear of having to risk $18 million or $20 million being added to the budget. Or some players would have to take it, if only because the money would be too good to pass up.
Two Years Instead of One
If these first three years of the QO have taught us anything, it’s that players obviously value some sort of stability in their contracts, meaning multiple years often is preferable to a higher AAV.
Turning the QO from a one-year deal into a two-year pact would mean a bigger commitment from the team, which again might make some squads less likely to extend a QO unless they know they want the player.
And the players at least would receive a little more security going forward. Maybe then a free agent presented with a QO actually might accept, putting an end to this ugly 0-for-34 rut.
A Trade Shouldn’t Matter
Under the current rules, a free-agent-to-be who is traded midseason cannot be presented with a QO at the end of the year.
This is primarily to prevent teams from stocking up on expiring players via trade and then reaping the draft-pick compensation rewards, something that had been happening to a small extent under the previous format.
Thing is, that can cause two similar free agents—one who was traded, one who wasn’t—to be valued very differently on the open market.
This is exactly what happened a year ago with Matt Garza and Ervin Santana, two similarly talented mid-rotation right-handers.
Garza was ineligible for a QO since he’d been traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers in July 2013. His market last winter was much more robust and natural, since he wasn’t tied to any compensation, and he landed a four-year, $50 million deal in late January.
Santana, meanwhile, stayed with the Kansas City Royals for the entire 2013 campaign, rejected the QO and then, because his market was artificially undercut by being anchored to a lost draft choice, he had to settle for a one-year deal worth $14.1 million from the Atlanta Braves in mid-March—after spring training was underway.
As former big league pitcher-turned-analyst CJ Nitkowski writes for Fox Sports’ Just a Bit Outside: “Garza benefited from the Cubs being a bad team in 2013. Why should players who weren’t moved during the year be penalized in free agency while those who were traded gain an advantage? They shouldn’t.”
Forget Forfeiting a Pick Altogether
Ultimately, this suggestion would address the primary problem with regard to the QO: loss aversion.
When the free agent is not an elite, top-tier player, clubs have shown an inclination toward not losing their draft pick rather than toward focusing on the addition of talent.
Perhaps the simplest solution? Do away with the concept that a team that signs a QO-rejecting free agent has to give up a selection in the following draft.
The club that loses the player still can be compensated with a pick after Round 1—same as now—but eliminate the penalty element for the signing squad on the other end. That way, the only buyer’s remorse comes if the player doesn’t live up to his contract.
At some point, a player will accept the qualifying offer, which can’t go oh-for-forever. But it hasn’t happened yet, three years in. Maybe it will next year. Or maybe only after MLB makes some changes to the system when the current collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2016 season.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Major League Baseball’s offseason has just begun, and already there are all sorts of rumors and speculation—and questions—surrounding a number of free agents and trade candidates, as well as teams’ objectives and plans of attack.
Having hit on a number of topics last time, what better way to continue taking the temperature of the hot stove than by running through a batch of the hottest questions to cover the latest potential transaction action across the sport?
See, that’s a question in and of itself, although the five to follow are a bit more meaningful. Promise.
More and more, pitching is dominating Major League Baseball, which means players who provide any kind of offense, and especially power, are coming at a premium on the trade front or in the free-agent market.
Big bats are getting harder and harder to come by, and those that are available tend to come with some sort of flaw or concern, be it age, injury history or contract.
That’s why it’s helpful to know which players who can be labeled “power hitters” are the best targets for teams to go after this offseason.
The aim here is to rank based on the players’ overall skill set and past/future performance with a sprinkle of value mixed in too. But the focus is on those who are not only available, but also can be called power hitters legitimately.
That means you won’t find, say, free agent Pablo Sandoval and trade target Jason Heyward on the pages to follow. They might be better all-around than all but a few of the names, and they do have some pop—but they’re not quite power-hitter-ish.
This also is rooted in projected playing time and role, so power-only sluggers, like free agents Mark Reynolds or Jonny Gomes, who have plenty of power but aren’t everyday players, didn’t make the cut.
Just the same, players with little to no logical chance of being traded, like Giancarlo Stanton, who has engaged in extension talks with the Miami Marlins, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, weren’t considered, either.
Ultimately, think about these rankings like so: a general manager of a contender in need of a big bat and with some payroll to spare might consider trying to obtain these players in this order.
As the baseball industry awaits the first big transaction of the offseason—sorry, Adam Lind for Marco Estrada doesn’t exactly get the juices flowing—the focus shifts temporarily to another matter, the individual awards.
Until there’s a major move either in the free-agent market or on the trade front, the chases and races for MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year and Rookie of the Year hold our attention.
Starting Monday, Nov. 10, and continuing every evening through Thursday, Nov. 13, the winner of each honor in either league will be announced by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
With all of the finalists—three per for all four awards—having been determined earlier this week, here’s a preview of the choices and a rundown of the predicted winners.
The offseason has only just begun, and already it’s been a very tumultuous one for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Indeed, new president of baseball operations Matt Silverman—who took over the job in October after Andrew Friedman, his longtime predecessor, left for the Los Angeles Dodgers—has his work cut out for him.
Not only is Silverman new to his own job, but he also has to choose the man to succeed former skipper Joe Maddon, who did plenty of succeeding himself by posting a .529 winning percentage and winning two AL East titles and one AL pennant in his nine seasons before opting out of the final year of his contract and signing a five-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.
On Thursday, the team revealed the eight preliminary candidates to replace Maddon.
That’s a rather large number of baseball minds to bring in and interview for a managerial search, but the Rays can handle this however they desire.
And it sounds like there will be more to come, according to Silverman, who said, “This is a preliminary list of candidates, and we expect it will grow as we continue through this process.”
As for these eight to start, well, the list is—how do we put this?—eclectic. There’s really a little of everything to consider, which is why we’ll count down all of them, in order of least to most likely to actually land the gig.
Yasmany Tomas remains quite a mystery, or at least an unproven commodity, to many in and around Major League Baseball, but that could work in the Cuban defector-turned-free agent’s favor this offseason.
So much of the focus over the winter will be on the pitching market, headed by aces Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, as well as the consistent, durable James Shields and possibly Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda if he is posted.
But on the position-player front, there’s decidedly less high-end talent. Sure, third baseman Pablo Sandoval is positioned well to earn a big-money pact coming off his third World Series title at age 28. And Hanley Ramirez is going to get paid—probably even overpaid—by some team that’s willing to give the injury-prone soon-to-be 31-year-old occasional offensive force a chance to play shortstop.
Beyond those two, however, the biggest contracts could go to catcher Russell Martin and designated hitter Victor Martinez, two steady, proven veterans who stand out in their respective markets. But based on their ages—they’ll be entering their age-32 and age-36 seasons, respectively, in 2015—anything north of $60 million to $70 million for either would seem to be pushing it.
In light of that, just how much interest is there going to be in a soon-to-be 24-year-old, power-hitting outfielder with experience from a professional league that has funneled three other marquee major league hitters to the majors in recent years?
Try a lot.
That’s certainly the case given what’s been said and written about Tomas since he defected in June from Cuba, a country that has supplied ready-made stars like Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu the past three seasons.
And by many account, Tomas could be next in that line.
The 6’1″, 230-pound righty swinger and thrower worked out for all 30 big league teams in the Dominican Republic in September.
Tomas, who turns 24 on Nov. 14, played five seasons for the Havana Industriales in Cuba’s top pro league, the Serie Nacional, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com notes:
Overall, he hit 30 home runs with 104 RBIs in 205 regular-season games for the Industriales, starting in 2008. However, he never played more than 69 games during the Serie Nacional’s 90-game regular season and did not play during the 2010-11 season.
‘My dream was always to play with the best players in the world,’ Tomas said. ‘Everyone knows there is good baseball in Cuba, but Major League Baseball is the top level in the world. Everybody wants to play there.’
Despite not starting for Cuba in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, Tomas went 6-for-16 (.375) with a double and a pair of home runs, one of which came against two-time defending champion Japan and was smashed well over the fence in left-center field:
While there’s much intrigue and plenty of positives, there are concerns surrounding the outfielder, too.
For one, Tomas hasn’t necessarily been in the best shape, leading some to question what his physique will look like, especially as he ages, as Keith Law of ESPN Insider (subscription required) notes:
Tomas is a stout center fielder who’ll have to move to a corner outfield spot, as he’s a below-average runner with a stiff body who could probably stand to shed some weight before he signs.
What Tomas brings is plus power, and I don’t think it’s just BP power, as he’s very short to the ball—maybe even more so than Abreu—with good hip rotation and a very quiet approach. He keeps his head steady through contact and his back leg pretty strong. However, he has below-average bat speed, unlike Abreu (whose is average or better) or Puig (whose is just ridiculous), and I’ve had multiple scouts tell me they question Tomas’ ability to hit for average against major-league pitching.
A reasonable/optimistic projection for Tomas would be an average to slightly above-average regular in left field, with 25 to 30 homers, a low OBP and below-average defense.
That sounds an awful lot like the production provided by another, but less impactful, Cuban player: Dayan Viciedo of the Chicago White Sox.
In fact, that’s just the name Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs mentions in his scouting report: “Scouts on the low-end for Tomas mention Dayan Viciedo as a comparable while more scouts think Yoenis Cespedes is a better offensive comparison, though Cespedes is quicker-twitch athlete with more speed and defense value.”
As for the financial aspect, safe to say it’s going to require a hefty investment to land Tomas.
Here’s Ben Badler of Baseball America:
Media reports continue to assume that Tomas is asking for $100 million, which is wrong. I haven’t had a team yet tell me that Tomas is asking for $100 million, just that his camp is looking for more than what Rusney Castillo got from the Red Sox. That could mean topping Castillo’s $72.5 million total contract, or it could mean beating what essentially works out to a $12 million average annual value.
The market for Cuban players has exploded in the past few years, and the deal for Tomas, who is exempt from international bonus pools because he is at least 23 years old and has played at least five seasons in a professional league, is going to reflect as much.
Cespedes got a four-year, $36 million deal with the Oakland A’s. Puig signed with the Dodgers for $42 million over seven years, and Abreu landed a $68 million contract with the White Sox through 2019.
Additionally, there are a number of teams that either could use a corner outfielder or have shown a specific interest in Tomas, including the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Some MLB higher-ups view the Phillies as the favorites, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News:
‘He makes a lot of sense for Philadelphia,’ said one rival executive, noting that that the Phillies have money, a thin farm system, and a desire to reverse their fortunes as quickly as possible. Plus, people around the game took note when GM Ruben Amaro Jr. flew to the Dominican Republic to personally scout Tomas.
The San Diego Padres, for what it’s worth, appear to be the club that has been most thorough in evaluating Tomas, as they have worked him out twice and seen him three times, according to Badler. Most recently, the Boston Red Sox held a private session with the outfielder over the weekend, per Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.
In other words, there may not yet be a clear front-runner to land Tomas, who can sign with any team at any time. But there sure as heck is a market for him—one with a number of aggressive, big-spending clubs at a time when offense, and especially power, is being valued at a premium.
Even with justifiable questions about Tomas’ physique, his readiness for the majors immediately and his ability to hit for average against big league pitchers, a contract near $100 million isn’t out of the question. And the likelihood is that Tomas will surpass the $72.5 million contract—a record amount for an international free agent from Cuba—that fellow outfielder Rusney Castillo landed from the Red Sox in August.
Speaking of Castillo, here’s what the 27-year-old had to say about his countryman back in September, per Rob Bradford of WEEI:
[Tomas is] a really high quality baseball player, and a really good person. He’s got a ton of power. For his physique, he actually moves pretty well. He’s pretty quick for a big guy.
I would compare the power to Abreu’s power. Tomas has a ton of power. Maybe not to that degree, but if you want a comparison, especially to another Cuban guy—especially when it comes to power—that’s the guy.
So at least in Castillo’s eyes, Tomas earns comparisons to Abreu, who only led all of baseball with a .581 slugging percentage as a rookie in 2014.
Evoking names like Abreu, Puig and Cespedes—each of whom have had undeniable and immediate success in the majors—for comparison purposes, even loosely, is only going to work in Tomas’ favor even more.
Same goes for the mystery and the unknowns surrounding Tomas. The allure, the potential is easy to dream on right now.
Ultimately, whether Tomas will net a near-nine-figure deal—and more importantly, whether he’ll be worth the total he does get—are, strangely, mutually exclusive questions.
The answer to the former likely is yes. The answer to the latter? Well, for the sake of whichever team inks Tomas, let’s hope he turns out to be as good as his predecessors have been.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The Chicago Cubs got their man and their manager. By hiring skipper Joe Maddon, a move that became a reality with Monday’s introductory press conference, the franchise kicked off what looks to be a busy and productive offseason as the club embarks on the next stage of a long rebuilding process and return to relevance—and perhaps even the postseason—sooner than later.
Just ask Maddon himself.
“For me, I’m going to be talking playoffs next year,” Maddon said via Joey Nowak of MLB.com. “We’re going to set our mark high, and I’m going to talk playoffs and World Series this year, and I’m going to believe it.”
That’s a big statement from someone who’s new to a team that hasn’t reached the postseason since 2008 or the World Series since 1945—let alone won it all since 1908. Now it’s up to Maddon, as well as Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, to back that up.
In signing Maddon, who opted out of the final year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays last month, to a five-year deal that runs through the 2019 season, the Cubs are hoping a man widely regarded as one of the very best managers and tacticians in the sport can do for his new organization what he did for his old one.
That is, turn a cellar dweller into a perennial power.
But having Maddon take the place of Rick Renteria, who was abruptly dismissed late last week after just one season on the job, is far from the only big move Epstein and Hoyer will have to pull off to achieve that objective.
Remember, in addition to needing some skipper stability—Maddon checks in as the fifth manager since the beginning of the 2010 campaign—this is a franchise desperately requiring a return to relevance after five straight losing seasons.
With Maddon now officially in the fold and soon to be on the bench, here’s a rundown of what else the Cubs need to get done this offseason.
There’s plenty still to do if Maddon and Company really are aiming for the playoffs in 2015.
Spend on a Starter…
The Cubs need an arm or three, and it’s no secret that appears to be their priority this winter.
“We need to add impact pitching, from outside the organization,” Epstein said, according to Bruce Miles of the Chicago Daily Herald. “We fully acknowledge that. That’s a primary goal going forward. Certainly over the next 15 months, I’ll be disappointed if we don’t add impact pitching from outside the organization.”
The current rotation candidates include 2014 breakout pitcher Jake Arrieta, the regression-victimized Travis Wood and second-year arm Kyle Hendricks, who has made all of 13 starts with Chicago.
Beyond that trio, there’s veteran Edwin Jackson, who owns a nasty 5.58 ERA in his two years as a Cub, scrapheap projects Jacob Turner and Felix Doubront as well as Tsuyoshi Wada, who re-signed on Monday for one year, per Muskat, in a move that understandably received much less fanfare.
Lucky for the Cubs, the top two free agents on the market this year happen to be starting pitchers, left-hander Jon Lester and right-hander Max Scherzer.
Between those two, there has been more speculation, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, that Lester could be the primary target given the left-hander’s potentially slightly lower price tag and lack of draft-pick compensation for being traded midseason. Not to mention, Lester has ties to Epstein from their Boston Red Sox days.
The other big name that has been rumored as a good fit is righty James Shields, as Wittenmyer writes, with whom Maddon is plenty familiar from their time in Tampa Bay together.
The front office should continue its bargain-bin shopping to unearth the next Arrieta, Scott Feldman or Jason Hammel, but it’s about time to pony up for a stud starter.
…and Maybe Trade for One Too
Again, this team needs arms—as in plural.
Considering how overloaded Chicago is on the position-player front, particularly in the infield, it might make sense for the club to at least dangle some of that potential excess to see what sort of offers come in.
Depending on how aggressive Epstein and Hoyer want to get, they have the goods to acquire just about any pitcher made available on the trade market, including aces like the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Cole Hamels or the Cincinnati Reds‘ Johnny Cueto, as well as solid mid-rotation arms like Mat Latos of the Reds or Tyson Ross of the San Diego Padres.
Heck, even old buddy Jeff Samardzija, whom they traded to the Oakland Athletics for top shortstop prospect Addison Russell last July, could be an option.
Find a Leader on the Field
Epstein, Hoyer and Maddon form quite a triumvirate of savvy, experienced decision-makers. The Cubs, however, are lacking that element on the diamond, in large part because the vast majority of the 25-man roster is so young.
Remarkably, only four players on the current 25-man roster have an age that begins with a “three” and not a “two”: 33-year-old Wada, 33-year-old John Baker, 31-year-old Jackson and 30-year-old Carlos Villanueva. None of that quartet, by the way, is anything close to a cog going forward.
As for the longest-tenured Cub? Why, that’d be shortstop Starlin Castro, who has played in 740 games since debuting as a 20-year-old in 2010.
“We need to add some reliable performance from veterans from whom we know what we’ll get because young players’ performance is so volatile early in their careers,” Epstein told Miles.
At the top of that list should be Russell Martin. Not only is the 31-year-old, nine-year veteran a leader, he also would address the need for a strong, all-around backstop.
In addition to his .402 on-base percentage in 2014, Martin has been a key component of a Pittsburgh club that went from 20 consecutive losing seasons—the most ever in America’s four professional sports—to two straight postseasons. Think the Cubs would value that kind of impact?
Although the Pirates just tendered a qualifying offer to Martin, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Cubs’ top draft pick—one of the first 10—is protected.
Get All that Young Talent to Maddon
Among his many strong suits with the Rays, one of Maddon‘s best traits was his ability to incorporate, develop and work with young players.
The Cubs possess arguably the top farm system in all of baseball, thanks to outfielder Albert Almora, right-hander C.J. Edwards and consensus top prospect Kris Bryant, among others.
But they also have a number of players in the nascent stages of their big league careers, including right fielder Jorge Soler, center fielder Arismendy Alcantara and infielder Javier Baez.
And although first baseman Anthony Rizzo and Castro have been around for a while, both will be only 25 entering 2015, so they’re more or less MLB adolescents still.
It behooves the Cubs to get all this young, still-maleable, on-the-verge talent to Maddon so they can have time to be molded, sculpted and brought along by him.
If that means not worrying so much about trivialities like the Super Two arbitration deadline, then so be it.
The first to-do item of the Cubs’ offseason—get Joe Maddon—has been taken care of. There’s still a lot to get done, but the plan is in place to get this franchise back to the playoffs soon. And if Maddon gets his way, perhaps it’ll be even as soon as next year.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Of course a playoff game between the San Francisco Giants, those inexplicable #EvenYear magicians, and St. Louis Cardinals, the late-inning comeback club, would end this way. With a walk-off error on a bunt, that is. Oh, and in extra innings to boot.
The Giants’ postseason fortune in 2014—like that from 2012 and 2010 before it—continued as they won 5-4 in 10 innings to go up two games to one on the Cardinals, who stormed all the way back from a 4-0 first-inning deficit on Tuesday.
The deciding run came when Brandon Crawford, a lefty hitter who had been walked by lefty specialist Randy Choate to lead off the 10th, sprinted home from second base when Choate fielded Gregor Blanco’s sacrifice bunt attempt only to promptly throw it away down the right field line.
It was a so-very-Giants way to win, especially considering San Francisco had managed exactly one hit—by starting pitcher Tim Hudson, no less—after that four-run barrage in the first until Juan Perez’s single in the 10th pushed Crawford to second.
And yet despite the seeming randomness with which this club keeps on winning, the Giants have regained the edge in a dramatic, tightly contested National League Championship Series that has featured a ninth-inning walk-off home run in Game 2 and Game 3’s walk-off E-1. Through three games, the two teams are separated by all of three runs.
“I’m a little delirious,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said in his televised postgame press conference of managing in yet another pressure-packed playoff game. “We don’t do anything easy. We scored four in the first and then nothing after that until the very end. We play a lot of tight games. It’s kind of our way.”
But the Giants don’t only play a lot of close games in October—they tend to win them.
With the next two still in San Francisco, the Giants have a chance to close out the Cardinals at home behind their Game 4 starter, righty Ryan Vogelsong—he of the 1.19 career playoff ERA—and lefty Madison Bumgarner, the last postseason ace still throwing, who looms in the potential clinch-the-series Game 5.
On the other side, the Cardinals are dealing with injuries (or at least injury concerns) to their two most important players, right-hander Adam Wainwright with his balky elbow and catcher Yadier Molina with his cranky left oblique.
“I woke up [Monday] moving a little better,” Molina said, via Lyle Spencer of MLB.com. “I feel good enough to catch.”
And yet, Molina isn’t healthy enough to hit, so he missed Game 3, the first playoff game he hadn’t played in since Game 2 of the World Series all the way back in 2004—a whopping 84 games ago. Sure, he got up to catch relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness in the bullpen in the late innings, but that’s not exactly a promising sign.
Wainwright, meanwhile, is lined up to go against Bumgarner in Game 5, but that doesn’t instill much confidence given how he’s thrown this October. In two turns, the normally dependable righty has managed to make it through just nine innings while surrendering eight earned runs on 17 hits. Yikes.
Even the Cardinals’ freakish knack for finding their stroke late in games, particularly from the seventh inning on, might not be enough to overcome that. Heck, the comeback from 4-0 down to tie it at 4-4 on a solo shot by rookie Randal Grichuk in—you guessed it—the seventh wasn’t good enough Tuesday.
As Giants left fielder Travis Ishikawa, whose three-run double was the blow that put the Giants up 4-0 in the first, said, per Chris Haft of MLB.com:
Somebody asked me earlier…if there’s any other way we can score a run other than a non-conventional way, and I said, ‘If there is, we’re going to find a way.’ Just seems like…the resilience of this team. There’s no quit, whether we’re down or whether we’ve got the small lead. We’re going to find a way to get it done.
These two teams rule the NL just about every year, thanks to their uncanny (and somewhat supernatural?) ability to win—and win in dramatic, weird fashion—in October, so it’s fitting that they’re facing off in the NLCS.
But after the drama and weirdness of Game 3 and the questionable status of two key Cardinals going forward, it seems St. Louis’ late-inning comeback powers are being overwhelmed by the Giants’ random every-even-year luck.
You know, if such a thing exists.
Statistics are accurate through Oct. 14 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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As the postseason progresses, teams, players and results provide more and more answers along the way. Some are expected, but others? Not so much.
That doesn’t mean, there still aren’t plenty of questions to consider regarding how everything is shaping up and, ultimately, how it all will play out.
To determine that, or at least try, here’s a batch of questions that need answering over the rest of October—and even a shot at some of the answers.