Author Archive

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2015: 25 Names to Know

In case you haven’t yet opened your eyes to the upcoming—and fast-approaching—fantasy baseball season, it’s time to stop hitting the snooze button on your internal alarm clock, wake up and start sleepering.

Yep, you read that right. “Sleepering” might not be an actual, you know, word—at least, not according to the Oxford dictionary—but if it were, surely the definition would be as follows: “The act and art of identifying potential fantasy sleepers.”

Most draft-day sleepers fall into one (or more) of the following categories:

  • Bounce-Back Vet: A longtime major leaguer who had a miserable 2014.
  • Injury-Returnee: A player who missed much, most or all of 2014 on the disabled list.
  • Lesser-Known: A player who isn’t getting much, if any, real-life publicity or fantasy love.
  • New Role: A player who is taking on a different position or new opportunity. 
  • Post-Hyper: A once-promising player whose career has stalled and disappointed to date.
  • Top Prospect: A highly rated youngster who remains rookie-eligible heading into this year.
  • Youngster on the Rise: A player who’s ready to rise after a first taste of the majors in 2014.

The players to follow come with at least one of the above sleeper labels.

The other qualification required to be eligible? The players must fall outside the top 150—that’s the first 12-15 rounds for 10- and 12-team leagues—based on average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros.

Here, then, are 25 fantasy sleepers, listed in order of ADP, to keep in mind over the next few weeks’ worth of prep work.

 

This list considers three factors:

First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard five-by-five rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).

Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.

Begin Slideshow


Will James Shields’ Sky-High Demands, Wait-It-out Strategy Pay off or Backfire?

In less than three weeks, pitchers and catchers will begin reporting to spring training facilities across Florida and Arizona to prepare for the start of the 2015 Major League Baseball season.

There’s at least a chance that James Shields won’t be among them.

Shields, one of the top free agents when this offseason started about three months ago now, has yet to find a new team and thus potentially could be without a home when the first teams officially open up shop Feb. 18.

At this stage, with the beginning of baseball hurtling ever faster—heck, the Super Bowl has come and gone—it’s pretty evident that Shields’ approach this winter hasn’t worked. And the biggest reason why appears to be that the right-hander and his representation have overestimated his worth—and not by a small margin, either, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports:

Remaining on the open market this long likely was not part of the plan. In fact, there were reports in early January that Shields had an offer worth north of $100 million from a team but that said team was one for whom he didn’t want to pitch, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

So Shields could have been signed, sealed and delivered a few weeks ago, readying to report to spring training with his new club. At least, in theory.

In reality, Shields’ situation has played out exactly the opposite.

There are two very big problems for Shields right now. One, time is running out on him, and so is the money. There are only so many days—and so many dollars—left now that reporting dates are getting nearer, and most teams already have made their major moves and started planning out their 2015 payrolls and budgets.

On top of that, the team that eventually signs Shields, who rejected the Kansas City Royals’ qualifying offer, will lose a draft pick in June. That’s not something that’s easy to give up at this point, only four months out from the draft, especially if it’s a first-round choice.

And two? There are still alternative arms that could be acquired via trade, from Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies or perhaps Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds or even one of the Washington Nationals’ studs, Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg.

In other words, Shields is the best pitcher available by far in free agency, but he’s not necessarily the best pitcher available—period.

Shields clearly missed his chance at leveraging his value while it was at its highest point earlier in the winter, as Buster Olney of ESPN writes:

With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, it’s apparent that James Shields reached the zenith of his negotiation leverage on the night of Dec. 9. That was the night when Jon Lester finalized his decision to go to the Chicago Cubs, and the San Francisco Giants and other teams faced the reality that they needed a Plan B.

Shields was in a good spot in that moment, it seemed, because unlike Cole Hamesl, he wouldn’t require a trade investment of prospects, and unlike Max Scherzer, he wouldn’t require the equivalent of a Defense Department budget to sign. Whatever cards Shields held at that time were probably the best he has seen all winter.

But that leverage is now gone, and Shields is in the worst possible spot of any free agent, when most teams are finished spending for the winter and more readily identify reasons to dismiss an available player. In Shields’ case, the loudest concerns are about his age (33), his heavy workloads (eight straight seasons of 203 or more innings pitched), his need for a ballpark that forgives his tendency to surrender fly balls to left-center field; his home games have been in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field and Kauffmann Stadium.

Now, despite all of that, Shields still is a proven, consistent and very durable starter who fits best as a No. 2 but can pitch at the top of a rotation if needed. He’s also capable of being an impact addition, the kind who could turn a good team into a great one or a borderline contender into a no-doubt one.

And being the best—and last—readily available option on the open market can be a good thing, provided there is an actual market. That’s where Shields’ reps at PSI Sports Management have to come into play to build some leverage and get multiple teams—even if it’s only two—invested in the idea of how the righty can help them in 2015 and beyond.

That, however, could be part of the problem. According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe: “One prominent baseball official feels Shields has been miscast and not marketed and/or positioned well by his agent, Page Odle. Shields is a super pitcher, but the notion that he’s a bad postseason pitcher seems to have overwhelmed his total body of work.”

And yet there plenty of teams are being mentioned as potential Shields suitors—at a reduced price, of course—including the Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays, among others, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

If Shields’ market doesn’t advance, though, or if some starter on a contender doesn’t blow out an elbow early in spring training, then Shields’ tough spot will only get tougher.

While some free agents who have lingered on the market too long in recent years (think: Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales last year) were willing to take a one-year, below-market contract and hit the market again a year later, that wouldn‘t be such an easy path for Shields.

Not only will Shields once again be extended a qualifying offer if he performs like his usual self, but he’ll also be a year older. And the chances that some club is going to give a four- or five-year contract to a pitcher entering his age-34 campaign will be dramatically reduced.

After all, the history of starting pitchers getting big money at age 32 or older isn’t exactly promising.

The most recent contract handed out to such a starter was Mark Buehrle’s four-year, $58 million pact with the Miami Marlins in December of 2011, aRosenthal points out.

Buehrle entered the market with an even greater number of innings pitched than Shields has now, but he also boasted a better adjusted ERA,” Rosenthal writes. “Executives cite not only Shields’ age as a negative, but also his backlog of innings, declining strikeout rate and spotty postseason performance.”

The way this has played out so far has been rather unexpected given Shields’ abilities and placement as a top free agent at the outset of the offseason.

It’s also been rather unfortunate for Shields, who will wind up signing somewhere, but almost certainly not for the amount of money he had been hoping initially.

The questions now are: How much less money? And how much more time?

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Why the Atlanta Braves Were Right to Tear Down Once-Promising Roster

This offseason has been surprising—and perhaps somewhat painful—for the Atlanta Braves, who, as part of a somewhat unexpected rebuilding effort spearheaded by a new front office, traded away a trio of their most popular, polarizing players.

Another word that could be used to accurately describe the Braves winter? Justified.

As in, new president of baseball operations John Hart and Co. were justified in the decision to take this route, even considering Atlanta began the offseason with enough talent on the roster to make a rebound campaign a reasonable hope.

After all, this is the Atlanta Braves, a franchise that has been one of the most consistent in baseball, capturing 14 straight NL East titles from 1991 to 2005 and posting five consecutive winning seasons from 2009 to 2013 prior to last year’s second-half collapse (27-40) that led to a 79-83 mark.

After that kind of sustained success, pushing the restart button doesn’t come easy.

But that’s what Hart has done—that’s what he needed to do—after taking over for former general manager Frank Wren. And there are a number of reasons why.

First and foremost, Wren had left the Braves farm system lacking in both quality and quantity after years of mediocre, uninspiring drafts.

“We had a tough year, and I know there was a lot of speculation about us going into this winter,” Hart said, according to Jeff Schultz of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We had the 29th-ranked farm system in baseball. We had some bad contracts.”

As Keith Law of ESPN writes of Atlanta’s system, now the sixth-best in baseball:

They were a bottom-5 system when the offseason started, but six trades later, they’ve built up a stash of prospects that makes up for five years of execrable drafts and very little production from their Latin American efforts. Ten of their top 12 prospects have appeared on at least one of my past three top-100 rankings, including six this year.

To get there, Hart had to bite the bullet by swapping young outfielders Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, each of whom was a homegrown product or a popular player—or both.

But the 25-year-old Heyward, whom the Braves drafted 14th overall in 2007, and the 27-year-old Upton, who hit 56 homers in two seasons in Atlanta after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, were entering their final year under contract.

With both stars set to become free agents in line for nine-figure paydays, there was no way the Braves could afford to bring back both—let alone even one. Especially not after spending a lot last winter to lock up other young talent, like first baseman Freddie Freeman, closer Craig Kimbrel, shortstop Andrelton Simmons and righty Julio Teheran.

In return for Heyward, who was sent to the St. Louis Cardinals, and Upton, who is now a San Diego Padre, Atlanta landed young, team-controlled, high-upside talent: big league righty Shelby Miller, as well as a slew of prospects—righty Tyrell Jenkins, lefty Max Fried, infielders Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson and outfielder Mallex Smith.

And in dealing Gattis—the man, the myth, the legend affectionately known as El Oso Blanco—to the Houston Astros, the Braves cashed in at peak value, getting two very good prospects in right-hander Mike Foltynewicz and third baseman Rio Ruiz for a powerful but offensively flawed, defensively limited, injury-prone player who already is 28 years old.

In short, Hart made the Braves younger and cheaper with each of these moves, which also was the right choice given the state of the NL East, a division Atlanta used to dominate but that instead was flag-planted by the Washington Nationals last year and very well could be again.

After winning the East by (count ’em) 17 games over the Braves and New York Mets, the Nationals went out and signed right-hander Max Scherzer for $210 million, one of the game’s very best starting pitchers, making arguably the sport’s best rotation even better.

With the Mets and Miami Marlins also on the upswing, armed with enough young talent to have a chance to make a run at a wild-card spot this year, that would have left little room for the Braves to make any headway in 2015.

“Look, we weren’t going to be favored even if we kept everybody and added two pitchers,” Hart said via Paul Newberry in The Augusta Chronicle. “But I think the future is significantly brighter because of what we were able to do this winter.”

And Atlanta would have been even worse in 2016 without Heyward and Upton. So Atlanta traded them while it still could—while they still had value—and managed to pull in promising returns in the form of youngsters who can develop and grow and blossom between now and, oh, 2017.

That, of course, is when SunTrust Park, the Braves’ new stadium in Cobb County, is slated to open.

So in fact, all of this activity has the team aimed at once again being a contender by the time the address changes. At least, that’s how this could shake out, in theory.

After a busy—and rather unexpected—offseason, the Braves are going to look a lot different in 2015 than they did in 2014.

While that might hurt a bit next year, if they make good on their returns and time everything right, the decision will look smart—and the pain will be gone—by 2017.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


How the Cubs Should Handle the Unleashing of Uber-Prospect Kris Bryant

The Kris Bryant era in Chicago will begin in 2015. The question is: When? Or alternatively: How soon?

In the wake of the Chicago Cubsacquisition last week of center fielder Dexter Fowler, in which they sent young righty Dan Straily and incumbent third baseman Luis Valbuena to the Houston Astros, speculation already has begun that such a move cleared the path at the hot corner for Bryant, arguably baseball’s best prospect.

That’s not how the Cubs decision-makers see it, however—at least, according to what they’re saying publicly.

“When we think Kris is ready to come up to the big leagues, we’ll make that decision,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “But certainly trading Valbuena is not going to speed up that clock at all. It’s all dependent on Kris.”

Hoyer just might be on a carousel, because that sounds like some serious spin.

To be sure, Hoyer and Cubs President Theo Epstein, who have spearheaded the franchise’s rebuilding process since taking over after the 2011 season, are trying to take some of the spring training pressure and hype off of Bryant, who has been nothing short of sensational since being selected second overall in 2013.

The 23-year-old former NCAA home run leader owns a .327/.428/.666 slash line in his season-and-a-half as a professional, and in making it all the way to Triple-A last year, he hit 43 home runs—the highest total in both the minors and majors.

For Epstein, Hoyer and Co., the trouble is that Bryant’s performance has made it darn near impossible to tamp down the excitement and expectations for him, especially on the North Side, where the Cubs are searching for their first winning season since 2009—and perhaps even their first postseason appearance since the year before that.

While Valbuena wasn’t completely useless in his time as a Cub (.724 OPS), he also is nowhere near the kind of player who would have posed an obstacle for a prospect of Bryant’s caliber once he’s deemed ready. So in a sense, Hoyer‘s remarks do have some truth to them: Valbuena‘s departure and Bryant’s debut can be considered mutually exclusive occurrences.

Then again, one peek at Chicago’s depth chart reveals that third base currently projects to be occupied by, uh, Mike Olt. You know, the 26-year-old who, despite flashing intriguing power as a rookie (.196 ISO), has shown a downright scary inability to make contact (38.8 percent strikeout rate in 2014) and isn’t exactly Ron Santo on defense, either.

Sure, fellow youngsters, Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara, both of whom are entering their second season in the majors, could factor in at the hot corner, too. But they have their own adjustments to make on both sides of the ball.

Ultimately, let’s not kid ourselves: Whether the Cubs front office wants to try to minimize the Bryant buzz or push back his timeline a bit, the job is going to be Bryant’s—and sooner than later.

That said, it’s not as if Bryant has nothing to improve upon between now and his eventual big league debut.

Even with all the hitting and homers, he did strike out 162 times, or 27.3 percent of his plate appearances, and his defense at third remains a work in progress.

Here’s what Baseball America wrote about Bryant’s D and the possibility that he eventually could shift to a corner outfield spot:

Bryant’s athleticism makes him an average defender at third base, where he’s improved on balls in front of him, features an easy plus arm and ranges well to his left. He’s not as good going to his right, and few tall, lanky players his size have stayed at the hot corner. His average speed—he’s easy to grade because he runs virtually every ball out—would suit him well if he moves to the outfield, and he’d profile in right.

But for now at least, Bryant will stay on the dirt. And given what he did in his 70 games over two-and-a-half months at Triple-A Iowa (.295/.418/.619), the possibility exists that he could make the Opening Day roster. Because in addition to being ready enough to show what he can do at the highest level, Bryant also is Chicago’s best option at the hot corner. Like, right now.

As Phil Rogers of MLB.com writes:

Bryant needs to be there from the start, provided he has a solid spring. But he’s a special case, and you can say the same thing about the hiring of [manager Joe] Maddon and signing of [free agent left-hander Jon] Lester. Timing dictated the Cubs’ aggressive approach to 2015, not a shortage of patience on the part of Epstein or chairman Tom Ricketts.

Thing is, Bryant almost certainly won’t—and shouldn’t—be the Cubs’ Opening Day third baseman, and that will be as much about behind-the-scenes roster management as it will his readiness.

You see, once Bryant debuts—assuming he stays up for good—he will be under team control for six years, or through the 2020 campaign.

But that’s only if he accrues six full seasons’ worth of service time in that span.

Due to a quirk in MLB rules, a player must net at least 172 days in a single season for said season to count as a full year of service time. Less than that, and that year doesn’t count.

Translation: If the Cubs wait just a few weeks before they promote Bryant for his debut, they’ll get to keep him under control through 2021—another entire season.

Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com breaks it down:

Is there any chance [Bryant] breaks camp with the Cubs? If he does, he can become a free agent after 2020. If the Cubs bring him up closer to May, they have him until 2021. Nothing is for certain, but all signs point to the latter happening. And the notion that the Cubs “might lose the division” because Bryant is in Chicago in late April instead of early is silly.

This loophole is different from the oft-mentioned Super Two deadline, which typically comes in mid- to late June. Prospects promoted before then have a good chance of placing in the top 22 percent of players debuting in a given season, thus qualifying them for a fourth round of arbitration instead of the usual three.

That’s why teams looking to save money (and gain a “seventh season” of control) tend to bring up prospects in June or later. To an extent, this is what happened with Gregory Polanco of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2014.

 

How important would an extra year of team control of Bryant be? More significant than the few or even several million it might cost the Cubs if Bryant becomes a Super Two.

Significant enough to make this an easy call, regardless of how ready he is, how little he has left to prove at Triple-A or even how competitive the Cubs plan to be in 2015.

So despite all the hype and hope surrounding Bryant and the Cubs entering spring training, don’t expect to see the young slugger break camp with the club, no matter how great he looks in March.

But once April is halfway over, Bryant should be unleashed in Chicago, where he’ll then spend the next—count ’em—seven seasons.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Is Devin Mesoraco Poised to Become MLB’s Next Great Franchise Catcher?

The development of former first-rounder Devin Mesoraco took a little longer than the Cincinnati Reds might have expected, but their patience has paid off, as they have locked up one of 2014’s biggest breakout performers—and a potential franchise catcher—through the prime of his career and at a great value.

The two sides have agreed on a reported four-year extension worth $28 million, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

The deal—worth up to $30 million total with incentives, per Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors—will run through the 2018 season, which would have been Mesoraco‘s first beyond team control. While the Reds bought out one year of the backstop’s free agency, Mesoraco still gets to hit the open market as a 30-year-old.

Considering the dearth of talent at catcher, this is a very savvy move by the Reds, who need some cost certainty—and a bargain or two.

In addition to the possibility of losing free-agents-to-be Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake from the rotation, the Reds roster is filled with high-salaried position player stars (or former stars) who are either coming off injury-plagued campaigns (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce) or declining rapidly as they age (Brandon Phillips).

Mesoraco, who was drafted 15th overall back in 2007 and didn’t get a chance to be the club’s full-time starter until last year, might not yet be a full-blown star—or even all that well known outside of Cincinnati—but he made the All-Star team in 2014 and even garnered some MVP votes for his all-around production.

The 26-year-old triple-slashed .273/.359/.534 with 50 extra-base hits, including 25 homers. And he did so in only 440 plate appearances.

Here’s a look at where Mesoraco ranked in those categories, as well as the all-encompassing wins above replacement among all backstops in 2014:

Mesoraco‘s 4.4 fWAR checked in as the fifth-highest among catchers, behind only Jonathan Lucroy (6.3 fWAR), Buster Posey (5.7), Russell Martin (5.3) and Yan Gomes (4.6).

And this is worth pointing out again: Mesoraco‘s production came in significantly fewer games played than three of those four, as only Martin (111 games) played fewer than Mesoraco‘s 114.

Among those five, only Gomes—by exactly one month—is younger than Mesoraco, who has at least a full year on the others, including Posey, who turns 28 in late March.

While Mesoraco has proved that his slugging bat and quality approach makes him an elite offensive catcher at the plate, he recognizes that he still is trying to figure things out better behind it:

“You just have to continue to work hard and stay hungry,” Mesoraco said, per Derrick Webb of the Chillicothe Gazette. “I need to keep improving my defense to really become one of the all around better catchers in the game. My defense needs to and will continue to improve the more that I’m (behind the plate) and the more comfortable I get. That’s the main focus, just going out there and doing my thing.”

As Mesoraco points out, a large part of getting better defensively could come merely from more playing time. Prior to last season, he had never started more than 84 games at catcher in the majors, and even his 2014 total of 104 starts was cut into by oblique and hamstring strains that required stints on the disabled list.

As is, Mesoraco was solid on D last year, ranking a little better than average in defensive runs saved. And while he could stand to throw out more base-stealers—he nabbed 18 of 69 attempts—his 26 percent caught-stealing rate was right around the league average of 28 percent.

While offense clearly is Mesoraco’s strength, he has shown enough to stick behind the plate going forward. That makes his bat all the more valuable, given that catcher rated as the third-worst aggregate on-base-plus slugging percentage (.689) among all positions in the majors in 2014, ahead of only second base (.686) and shortstop (.678).

In other words, for a franchise that boasts two of the best backstops in baseball history in Hall of Famers Johnny Bench and Ernie Lombardi, Mesoraco‘s combination of pedigree, age, experience, hunger and all-around talent have him in position to become one of the sport’s next great catchers.

That is, if he isn’t already.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB’s Top 10 Can’t-Miss Pitching Prospects for the 2015 Season

Major League Baseball is being dominated by pitching, and that’s only going to continue, judging by the flood of elite young arms who are on the verge of reaching The Show.

Like these 10, who represent the sport’s can’t-miss prospects for the 2015 season.

To avoid any confusion, that means these pitchers should be making a major impact in the upcoming year.

Thus, you won’t see elite arms like Lucas Giolito of the Washington Nationals, Tyler Glasnow of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Luis Severino of the New York Yankees, all of whom are a bit too far away to take the majors by storm this year. Same goes for 18-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Julio Urias.

And, as always, to qualify as prospect-eligible, these arms cannot have pitched more than 50 innings in the majors or spent more than 45 days on the active roster.

That eliminates, say, Taijuan Walker of the Seattle Mariners, who surpassed that total in his final outing of 2014, as well as Philadelphia Phillies reliever Ken Giles, who was on the big league roster from June 12 to the end of the season.

What we’re looking for are elite young arms who have the right mix of talent (i.e., highly regarded prospects) and opportunity (i.e., proximity to the majors) to do something big in 2015.

Given that this list is about this coming campaign, there’s slightly more emphasis on the latter of those two criteria so that it’s more likely these pitchers actually will, you know, pitch in the big leagues—and make their presence felt—over the next several months.

Let the can’t-miss countdown begin.

Begin Slideshow


The Next MLB Starting Pitchers Who Will Ascend to ‘Ace’ Status

Defining an “ace” pitcher in Major League Baseball is difficult because it’s subjective. What’s more, just about everyone has a different opinion on how many actual “aces” there are and whether specific pitchers qualify or come up just short.

In some ways, however, it’s simple: You know an ace when you see one.

But in the interest of trying to make this exercise of identifying the sport’s next aces-in-the-making a bit more objective, there needs to be some criteria.

To qualify for this endeavor, a pitcher…

  1. Must have a legitimate chance to become a full-blown ace in 2015, as in this upcoming season
  2. Must never have placed in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting to this point in his career
  3. Must not have more than five years of MLB service time

Take careful note of these three standards, because the first requires a pitcher who is not only in relatively good health but also ready for the majors right now.

That goes a long way toward answering why, say, Lucas Giolito or Noah Syndergaard, widely considered two of the best pitching prospects in the game right now, don’t make the cut. While the Washington Nationals right-hander is too far away for 2015, the New York Mets righty might need a season or two before he really takes off, as most on-the-cusp prospects do (i.e. Carlos Rodon, Archie Bradley, Daniel Norris, etc.).

The second criterion explains why you won’t see, for instance, the San Francisco Giants’ Madison Bumgarner or the Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg or even the Chicago Cubs’ Jake Arrieta, one of 2014’s breakout arms. Those three have finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, so they are considered aces already, to varying degrees.

As for the service time requirement, well, let’s just say that if it ain’t happened after five seasons in the big leagues, chances are, it ain’t happenin‘. Although, there’s a case to be made for an arm like Jeff Samardzija, who just misses the cut with five years and 28 days of service time.

One last thing to keep in mind here: Pitching is supercalifragilisticexpialidocious deep these days, so there was no shortage of candidates, even with the above specifications. But because the aim here—it needs to be reinforced—is to find the next true front-of-the-rotation starting pitchers, don’t be dismayed if [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE PITCHER HERE] didn’t quite make the cut.

All that considered, here are the top 10 candidates to ascend to “ace-dom” this year.

Begin Slideshow


Does the 2014-2015 MLB Offseason Rank as Baseball’s Wildest Ever?

Major League Baseball’s offseason has been bananas, right? Perhaps the wildest and most active in recent memory—or maybe ever. At least, that’s how it feels while we’re right in the middle of it.

But how does this offseason stack up with hot stoves past?

Let’s start with a quick table that ranks the past nine offseasons in terms of total spending on free-agent contracts, according to ESPN.com:

That’s as far back as ESPN’s free-agent tracker tool goes, but there’s practically a decade’s worth of open-market expenditures, which gives us a pretty good idea.

As you can see, this offseason currently ranks as the third-highest spending in this time frame, behind 2006-07 and, yep, last year, when the New York Yankees paid out roughly half a billion all by themselves.

Because so many free agents have found homes by now, there’s no way 2014-15 can top 2013-14. But it is likely this winter will surpass 2006-07, especially once some team signs James Shields, who reportedly is seeking $125 million but may have to settle for a salary with eight figures instead, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

And here’s a look at how many clubs have paid out at least $100 million—a pretty good benchmark amount to qualify as a “big spender”—each of the past nine offseasons:

Again, the current hot-stove season rates rather high, but not quite the highest, with regard to how many clubs are spending nine figures on free agents. At least, not yet.

It’s feasible, though, that another team will join the current $100 million big spenders—the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees—depending on where Shields winds up.

At least objectively, then, this offseason has been busy and splurgy on the free-agent front, but not necessarily the busiest or splurgiest, even within the past decade.

Of course, none of the above figures takes into account the record-setting $325 million extension Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Miami Marlins in November, or the $100 million one Kyle Seager inked in early December to stay with the Seattle Mariners.

And as an overzealous infomercial pitchman might superficially exclaim: That’s not all!

This offseason also has brought (deep breath): the Red Sox near-$100 million inkings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez on the same day; the late-fall acquisitions of Jason Heyward (now a St. Louis Cardinal) and Josh Donaldson (now a Toronto Blue Jay); the on-the-fly makeovers of the White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers; and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ decision to go big after a pair of Cuban free agents, Yasmany Tomas and Yoan Lopez. (Phew!)

Add those in, and well, the case for 2014-15 as the wildest offseason only gets stronger.

What really sticks out about this offseason—and what has made it so chaotic in our collective memory bank—is all of the activity early on, especially during the winter meetings back in December.

Over the course of those four days, Dec. 8 to 11, all hell broke loose at what was still a rather early point in the offseason.

In the span of a little more than 48 hours, Jon Lester signed with the Cubs for a whopping $155 million, Ervin Santana scored $54 million from the Minnesota Twins and David Robertson landed another $46 million from the White Sox.

And on the trade front, all of the following big leaguers were moved—in that same span of time: Matt Kemp, Jeff Samardzija, Yoenis Cespedes, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Brandon Moss, Dee Gordon, Wade Miley, Miguel Montero, Yasmani Grandal, Dan Haren and Alfredo Simon.

As Adam Berry of MLB.com recaps:

Teams handed out more than $500 million in guaranteed contracts and signing bonuses this week in deals that either became official or were agreed upon at the Winter Meetings.

There were 50 players traded and 17 signed via free agency, including 15 who changed teams. Fifteen All-Stars were on the move to a new team, from Yoenis Cespedes, now wearing the Olde English D, to Ervin Santana, heading north to Minnesota.

In all, MLB.com counted a whopping 79 players who changed teams via trade, free agency, waiver claims or the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft this past week in San Diego. Here’s a team-by-team look at the players who came and went during a very busy Winter Meetings.

That—combined with the sense that the rumor-filled meetings haven’t necessarily been quite that busy in recent years with regards to actual signings and trades, as Paul Casella of Sports on Earth writes—has given this offseason a certain frenetic pace that didn’t seem to slow down until just before and just after the new year.

The other factor that has made this such a wacky winter? Just about every team is making a push to contend in 2015, as Dave Cameron wrote for Fox Sports. Well, aside from a few clubs that are rebuilding, like the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies.

To wit, the moribund, punchless San Diego Padres acquired essentially an entire new lineup, with aggressive new general manager A.J. Preller trading for Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks.

Heck, even the Houston Astros—who are tied with the New York Mets for the longest active streak of losing seasons at six—have made a flurry of moves, especially of late, signing Colby Rasmus and trading for Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily. All within the past week, and all in the hope of finally becoming more competitive.

So has this been the wildest offseason ever? That depends on how you define wild and how far back you really want to go.

For instance, the 1992-93 offseason also had loads of player movement, especially in the form of big-name free agents, as Michael Clair of MLB.com wrote after the most recent winter meetings:

But while 2014 was nuts, with players like Matt Kemp, Jon Lester, and Yoenis Cespedes all on the move, ’92 may have been even wilder. At that year’s Meetings, Greg Maddux spurned the Yankees’ higher offer to sign with the Braves, Barry Bonds fled the Pirates to join up with San Francisco, and David Cone received the highest annual value for a pitcher when he signed a 3-year, $18 million deal with the Royals.

But that’s not all. The Orioles picked up Harold Reynolds on a one-year deal, the Yankees traded three players including J.T. Snow in exchange for Jim Abbott, and the Blue Jays loaded up for a run at repeating as World Series champs by signing Paul Molitor and current Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart. Oh yeah, and the Red Sox signed Andre Dawson!

This offseason may seem like the wackiest and wildest ever, but that’s a difficult official declaration to make.

Ultimately, even accounting for recency effect and Max Scherzer snagging $210 million from the Washingotn Nationals earlier this week—the largest free-agent pitcher contract ever awarded—the 2014-15 offseason may have to settle for being one of the most memorable hot-stove seasons.

Then again, there may still be more to come beyond Shields’ inevitable signing.

It’s possible, for instance, that Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann and/or Troy Tulowitzki—three superstars who have been mentioned as trade candidates all winter long—could get moved.

Should any or all of that happen, it will only make this offseason—already on we won’t soon forget—all the more memorable.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Mets’ Exciting Young Rotation Still 1 Year Away from Taking MLB by Storm

Here’s a contrarian point of view: The New York Mets should be glad the National League East-rival Washington Nationals just splurged $210 million on Max Scherzer. But we’ll get to that in a bit.

Under the deliberate guidance and decision-making of general manager Sandy Alderson, the Mets—finally—appear to be on the verge of becoming relevant and maybe even competitive for the first time since Carlos Delgado was their starting first baseman.

Yes, the same Delgado who has been retired long enough to be put on—and then dropped off—the Hall of Fame ballot.

The last time the Mets had a winning campaign? Try 2008, six seasons ago, which is tied for the longest active streak of losing years in Major League Baseball with the Houston Astros.

Even for the bright and thorough Alderson, who was hired after the 2010 season, this rebuilding project has taken a long (looong) time.

Well, it’s probably going to take just a little bit longer. At least, if the Mets are going to take the NL East by storm on the strength of their stockpile of exciting, young, high-upside starters.

Returning to the front of the rotation after missing all of 2014 while recovering from Tommy John surgery is Matt Harvey, who became one of the sport’s biggest stars with a breakout 2013 (2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.6 K/9), in the middle of which he started the All-Star Game—in his home park—for the NL squad.

The big questions, of course, are how much of Harvey’s ridiculous repertoire will return and how many innings he conceivably could pitch, especially in the first year, post-procedure.

“As of now, realistically, throwing 200 innings in the regular season is probably not likely,” Harvey said via Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com in January. “I mean, if you make 33 starts and seven innings a start, obviously doing the math that’s over what I’m probably going to throw.”

Lined up behind Harvey are fellow right-handers Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler, both of whom already have had success in the majors and have the kind of stuff and potential to become front-liners, too.

Wheeler started to come into his own over the second half of 2014 (3.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9), at which point deGrom was busy putting together a fantastic run that earned him the NL Rookie of the Year Award from out of nowhere.

While Wheeler still has some work to do to improve his control and command, deGrom is a candidate for regression, simply because it shouldn’t be expected that he will pitch to a 2.69 ERA over the course of a full season, as Anthony DiComo of MLB.com notes. Those two need to fully establish themselves in 2015.

Then there’s Noah Syndergaard, the club’s consensus top prospect and arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, particularly since the 6’6″ right-hander affectionately called Thor is just about ready to debut in The Show after spending all of 2014 at Triple-A.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com writes of Syndergaard:

The two-time Futures Gamer is knocking on the door with his combination of stuff and command, a fastball that can get up to 98 mph, a curve and a changeup, all of which are above-average offerings. Syndergaard‘s 3.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his career thus far speaks volumes about what he’s capable of.

That said, Syndergaard is only 22 years old and had his first real struggles in pro ball at hitter-friendly Las Vegas last year, posting a 4.60 ERA, albeit with a career-best 145 strikeouts in a career-high 133 innings. He’ll likely experience some growing pains and a transition period. That’s what 2015 is for.

All of this is fine, by the way. Despite the losing and controversy that has hovered over Flushing since Citi Field opened in 2009, the Mets shouldn’t be in a rush to have everything come together this year.

Which brings us back to the point above about the Nationals.

They’re coming off an NL-best 96-win season in which they won the division by a ridiculous 17 games, the largest margin in the sport. At the outset of the offseason, they already were favorites to repeat as NL East champs and looked poised to make some waves in October, too, after failed forays in 2012 and last year.

And then, on top of all that, Washington went out and signed Scherzer for $210 million.

That makes the Nationals the overwhelming front-runners in the division, if not the entire Senior Circuit, for 2015.

But after ’15, things could open up a bit more, as four key Washington players—right-handers Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister as well as shortstop Ian Desmond and center fielder Denard Span—are set to hit free agency a year from now.

With Scherzer‘s contract taking up a large chunk of change, the Nationals certainly won’t be able to bring back all four, and they might have trouble replacing them, too.

Enter the Mets’ real window to winning, starting in 2016.

Besides, by that point, they won’t be giving (er, wasting) any starts to the likes of Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon or Dillon Gee, who could be traded even before the start of 2015, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. Those three are perfectly capable mid- or back-of-the-rotation starters, but the wave of arms the Mets have coming back and coming up is far superior to Niese, Colon and Gee—and soon will make them obsolete.

After Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler and Syndergaard—all of whom are 26 years old or younger—the club could hand over the final rotation spot to one of their other young pitchers.

Yes, the Mets have more arms on the way, too, namely highly regarded prospects such as left-hander Steven Matz and righty Rafael Montero.

Matz was named the team’s second-best prospect behind Syndergaard by Baseball America, and Montero already has had a taste of the majors, and despite being a starter, he could be relegated to the bullpen this year and beyond given all of the depth.

The last several seasons haven’t been any fun in Flushing, but the well-armed Mets have slowly, patiently, methodically put themselves in position to return to relevance in 2015.

And if all the pitchers come together and everything breaks right, playoff contention is possible. In 2016.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Creating MLB’s Perfect 25-Man Superteam

Having gone all Dr. Frankenstein to put together the perfect hitter and perfect pitcher by taking certain attributes of various sluggers and hurlers across Major League Baseball to form such a specimen, we’ve decided it’s now time to do the same for an entire team.

That’s right: The goal here is to concoct the perfect 25-man roster.

This isn’t about cherry-picking the 25 best players in the sport at their respective positions, lumping them together in the same dugout and calling it a day. This ain’t the All-Star Game, folks.

No, this is about finesse, nuance and strategy to come up with a full—and at least somewhat realistic—roster based on certain players and their specific traits, skills and tools.

Taking that into account, how does one assemble the ideal MLB roster from all active players?

There’s obviously more than one approach, but that’s why this is such a fun exercise.

That said, what follows is pretty darn near perfect.

Begin Slideshow


Copyright © 1996-2010 Kuzul. All rights reserved.
iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress