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Fresh MLB Offseason Winners and Losers 1 Month from Spring Training

A handful of Major League Baseball teams are scheduled to have pitchers and catchers report Feb. 18, which means only one thing: We’re barely a month out from the official start of spring training.

That makes right about now as good a time as any to update the winners and losers of this active offseason so far.

In the interest of keeping things fresh, the focus will be on any moves, signings, trades or decisions that have been made since the calendar flipped to 2015 and who was impacted by each—for better or worse.

Because not everyone can be a winner.

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Top MLB Prospects Who Could Still Be on the Move in Winter Trades

Now that it’s mid-January and spring training is just about a month away, the hot stove has started to settle down, at least a little.

Sure, there’s still a pair of big-name free-agent arms available in Max Scherzer and James Shields, and a trade or two tends to come to fruition every few days. But for the most part, the wave of transactions reached its peak in December.

That doesn’t mean there still isn’t all sorts of speculation and rampant rumors about moves that might happen, particularly on the trade front. To that end, there’s never a shortage of highly regarded prospects who are mentioned as potential chips.

Like these five to follow.

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How the Los Angeles Dodgers Have Left Themselves Exposed Entering 2015

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 92 and 94 games the past two seasons, as well as the National League West both times, and are once again considered by many (if not most) to be the favorites in that division in 2015.

But has the Dodgers’ busy offseason, sparked by a change in the front office that brought in new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and new general manager Farhan Zaidi, left them at least somewhat vulnerable as spring training approaches?

That question seems a little odd to raise, given the reputation of the Dodgers and their new decision-makers along with the fact that this is the only team currently projected to win even 90 games based on personnel and metrics, according to FanGraphs.

The Dodgers, however, have made a great many changes, like moving on from two of their most prominent, productive hitters in Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. This has resulted in a ton of roster turnover, and so, to an extent, the if-it-ain’t-broke argument applies.

Did the 2013-14 Dodgers have flaws that needed fixing just like every other team the past two years? Sure, namely a terrible bullpen, a below-average defense and injury issues that plagued the roster.

The playoffs also proved disappointing, with defeats in the 2013 NLCS and 2014 NLDS at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals both times.

Then again, the Dodgers did make the postseason each of the past two years, and are one of just five clubs to do so, along with the Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cardinals.

So this new-look 2015 Dodgers team is almost something of an experiment to see if a contender can be remodeled on the fly by a pair of incoming executives and stay a contender.

Besides that, there is quite a bit of pressure in L.A. for this to work right away, as the Dodgers are in win-now mode as much as just about any other club in the sport.

Before anything else, here’s a rundown of the Dodgers’ notable additions and subtractions so far this offseason, along with each player’s projected 2015 wins above replacement (WAR), courtesy of Steamer Projections, which can be found at FanGraphs:

Simply tallying the projected WARs for those added and lost is far from an exact measure of how much better or worse a team will be from one year to the next, but it can offer a sense.

In this case, the Dodgers look to have gained and lost roughly the same, meaning they might not be any better or worse than what they have been—they’ve only shuffled the deck chairs. Perhaps.

In letting Ramirez (512 plate appearances) walk as a free agent and trading Kemp (599) and Gordon (650), the Dodgers have moved on from three players who placed in the top five in plate appearances for them last season, leaving Adrian Gonzalez (660) and Yasiel Puig (640) as the only players to reach 500 plate appearances with L.A. in 2014.

Now, plate appearances don’t tell anything other than how often a player goes up to the plate, but that does provide an idea of how much turnover has taken place. As for the actual production, well, each of Kemp (140 OPS+), Ramirez (132) and even Gordon (101) were above-average with the bat.

Kemp, in particular, was downright dangerous in the second half of 2014, hitting .309 with 17 homers—third-most among all players post-break—and slugging an MLB-best .606.

Friedman acknowledged the risks involved in swapping that kind of talent.

“[Kemp] was a really popular player because of how gifted he is offensively,” he said via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “We get it. I have a lot of respect for what he can do in the batter’s box.”

The same goes for the pitching side, as four of the 10 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings for L.A in 2014 are now gone: Dan Haren (186.0), Josh Beckett (115.2), Paul Maholm (70.2) and Jamey Wright (70.1).

Of those four—two starters and two relievers—only Beckett, who has retired, posted an ERA+ that was better than league average at 121, so the losses on the mound don’t seem to be quite as impactful.

The Dodgers’ top three starters, Hyun-jin Ryu, Zack Greinke and 2014 NL MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, are still in place.

Quite possibly, the biggest takeaway from all the maneuvering is that it puts a heck of a lot more on the shoulders of Puig, who is one of baseball’s biggest and brightest but also most mercurial stars.

This is a young player who looked like an MVP candidate through the first half of 2014 (.309/.393/.522), only to slump soon thereafter (.268/.359/.402 with just one homer from the break until the end of August) before a late-season bump (.284/.376/.432 in September).

All of that turned into utter disaster in October, when Puig reached base just twice in his final 10 trips, struck out eight times in that span and was benched for NLDS Game 4, which turned out to be the Dodgers’ final game of the season.

Can Puig now handle being the marquee name in the lineup along with Gonzalez? Is he ready for that? Is there at least a chance it could go horribly wrong?

As Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times wrote before the Dodgers traded Kemp:

The Dodgers “lost” free agent Hanley Ramirez to the Boston Red Sox after the shortstop signed a jaw-dropping $88-million deal. They can’t really afford to lose the only other real right-handed power in the lineup. Certainly you’re not going to count on the streaky Yasiel Puig, who hit exactly one home run in a 54-game stretch from June 5 to Sept. 15?

As far as the pitching staff goes, the other potential pitfall that could crop up based on the machinations is the health of the rotation.

Both Kershaw (neck/back) and Ryu (hip) spent time on the disabled list in 2014, while Greinke battled through some minor elbow soreness late in the year.

And now that elite trio is backed up by two new starters in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who are practically defined by their injury history.

To wit, McCarthy, who scored a four-year, $48 million contract, reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time last season—his ninth in the majorsand he’s now entering his age-31 campaign.

Anderson, meanwhile, has been remarkably injury-prone, having dealt with a number of problems affecting all sorts of body parts since 2010. The soon-to-be 27-year-old lefty has quality stuff and might prove himself worthy of a $10 million gamble, but he hasn’t reached the 50-inning mark since 2011 and has thrown 206.1 innings the past four years combined.

There also will be a lot asked of Joc Pederson, one of the Dodgers’ top prospects, who made a brief cameo last September after a 30-30 season at Triple-A.

Here’s Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs on Pederson, citing ZiPS projections:

Joc Pederson is expected, also, to produce the third-most wins among Dodger batters. It’s not a typical arrangement, that, but also likely the product of the Dodgers’ outfield glut over the last couple years. Without it, Pederson almost certainly wouldn’t be entering the 2015 season with his rookie-eligibility intact.

Pederson has a strong all-around skill set and has done all he can in the minors, but he’s also just 22 years old with all of 18 games in the majors. There’s bound to be a transition period and some growing pains for a youngster who is expected to take over as the starting center fielder at some point in 2015. If he’s going to be L.A.’s third-best hitter, as mentioned above, that might not work out so well.

Now, all of this isn’t to say that the Dodgers won’t be good this coming season. What they will be is different.

“This just gets back to us doing everything we could to mold our roster into the most highly-functioning baseball team, as opposed to a collection of talent,” Friedman said, per Hernandez.

That could be a good thing, as Friedman and Zaidi have addressed the bullpen and defense, making the club more athletic and bringing in veterans Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick to better handle the middle infield.

They have also cut some costs by unloading Kemp’s hefty contract, among others, which leaves open the possibility that more moves could still happen.

But it’s also possible that so much change could take some getting used to, which could hurt the Dodgers, especially with all of the hype and expectation surrounding this club.

They may still be the favorites in the NL West at the moment, but the Dodgers have changed quite a bit from the past two years when they won the division. Remaking a contender is a bold and tricky task, with a potential downside that could come back to haunt them.

That might not happen with the Dodgersbut it could.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2015 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Early Top 10 Draft Rankings at Each Position

Major League Baseball is smack in the middle of its offseason, but it’s already about time to start gearing up for the 2015 fantasy baseball season, which will be here sooner than you think.

With that in mind, you’ll find a run-through of the top 10 players at each position from a fantasy perspective, along with their 2015 season age and statistics from last year. You know, to help you get ready for getting ready for your drafts in March.

For the sake of clarity and simplicity, players eligible at multiple positions (see below) are listed at the one where they hold the most value (i.e., rank highest).

Now, on to the top 10s…

 

These rankings consider three factors:

  • First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard five-by-five rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).
  • Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: One each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.
  • And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2013 or be in line to start there in 2014.

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20 Young Players on the Verge of Becoming MLB Superstars

Baseball fans, welcome to the second annual search for Major League Baseball’s next superstars.

This tricky, treacherous venture—which began a year ago at this time—isn’t about highlighting youngsters who might be above-average players.

No, this is about unearthing those with the potential and ability to break out and become the very best, those who possess the talent and skill to make themselves into perennial All-Stars and/or MVP and Cy Young Award candidates—and soon. Like, by-the-end-of-the-2015-season soon.

In short, if this search were to take out a classified ad, the write-up would include something like: “Seeking the next Mike Trout or Jose Abreu, the next Madison Bumgarner or Garrett Richards.”

Such players exist somewhere in the baseball world and should rise to prominence in the very near future. This is simply about uncovering them.

All of the following candidates are players whose careers are still in their infancy, but that doesn’t mean they’re all prospects. There is a mix of both prospects and those with at least some major league experience, because casting a wide-enough net hopefully will capture a batch of MLB‘s next superstars.

To qualify for this, players must have:

  1. Less than two years of service time in the majors heading into Opening Day 2015
  2. Never received any votes for MVP or Cy Young
  3. Zero All-Star appearances to date

After all, achieving any of those lofty criteria can be equated to having reached superstardom already.

Hence, there’s no Anthony Rendon, the Washington Nationals’ all-around stud third baseman; or Corey Kluber, who came almost out of nowhere to win the AL Cy Young; or Chicago Cubs slugging first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who just barely has more than two years in the bigs; or Devin Mesoraco, the Cincinnati Reds’ breakout catcher.

All of the above placed in MVP/Cy Young voting in 2014 or made it to the Midsummer Classic. Or both.

For the purposes of finding MLB’s next superstars, that makes them old news. This is about finding next year’s old news—now.

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Bleacher Report’s Updated Farm System Rankings Entering 2015

Major League Baseball’s offseason has been hectic so far, in case you haven’t noticed. And with six weeks to go before pitchers and catchers report, there’s still more action to come.

Much of the focus to this point has been on all of the movement among big leaguers, what with free-agent signings and teams trading their top chips to new squads. But there has been almost as much activity on the minor league front, too.

Now that 2015 is here, it’s time once again to take stock of prospects by ranking the farm systems of all 30 clubs.

As always, our rankings are based on two criteria: impact potential and depth. Since a team may have more of one than the other, it’s necessary to have more than a couple of players who project as quality big leaguers in order to have a good farm system.

One last thing to remember: Any player who is no longer prospect eligible—that is, anyone who has exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues—is not considered in their team’s ranking.

That means no Mookie Betts for the Boston Red Sox, Javier Baez for the Chicago Cubs or Taijuan Walker for the Seattle Mariners, among others who exhausted their rookie status late in the 2014 campaign.

With that in mind, here’s how all 30 farm systems stack up at the outset of 2015.

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Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2014-2015 MLB Offseason, Week 9

With 2014 now over and 2015 just beginning, Major League Baseball is two full months into what has been an incredibly active offseason. But there’s no shortage of rumors and speculation—and questions—around a number of free agents and trade candidates, as well as teams’ objectives and plans of attack.

Some of the latest buzz centers on the dwindling number of even semiproductive position players still on the open market, the potential availability of the versatile Ben Zobrist and whether right-hander Johnny Cueto might be on the move.

Having covered a number of topics last time, what better way to continue taking the temperature of the hot stove than by running through a batch of the hottest questions to cover the latest potential transaction action across the sport?

See, that’s a question in and of itself, although the four to follow are a bit more meaningful. Promise.

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Key Factors That Will Determine Max Scherzer’s Free-Agent Destination

While James Shields is a very good starter who can handle pitching at the top of a rotation, he’s not quite the prize that fellow free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer is. That’s why for all the intrigue, guesswork and speculation over where Shields might wind up, everything in that realm is much more compelling when it comes to Scherzer.

As Richard Justice of MLB.com points out: “In the last three seasons, Scherzer’s 55 victories are the most in baseball. He’s first in strikeouts, too, and 11th in innings [in that span]. By almost any definition, he’s a true No. 1 starter. The Tigers [were] 65-23 when Scherzer gets the ball and 205-192 with anyone else on the mound.”

Tack on the fact that the 30-year-old Scherzer, who took home the 2013 American League Cy Young Award, is represented by agent Scott Boras, and, well, this has all the makings of a free-agent frenzy.

And yet there hasn’t exactly been a Scherzer sweepstakes set up, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes:

The best player on the MLB free-agent market not only doesn’t have a team yet, he doesn’t even have a rumor.

No team has declared or even admitted serious involvement, but everyone believes star right-hander Max Scherzer…will easily surpass the six-year, $144 million deal he turned down last spring.

And most think it won’t be by only a little, either.

So what are the key factors that will determine where Scherzer ultimately signs?

 

The Massive Money

Scherzer’s camp has made it known that he is seeking a contract worth $200 million, if not more, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.

That’s, uh, a lot of scratch. Even if the ultimate price tag is shy of that figure, Scherzer is going to get at least the $155 million that Jon Lester landed from the Chicago Cubs during the winter meetings in mid-December.

In other words, only teams with the financial fortitude need apply.

 

The Big-Market Teams

Speaking of those clubs possessing proper payrolls…

For this drawn-out speculation and eventual negotiation tactic to work out, Boras needs a market to develop around Scherzer in order to grab some leverage in any talks by playing interested teams against each other.

Which teams might that include?

The New York Yankees, who have been active this offseason without having gone after any top-tier, big-money players and instead playing it safe by re-signing third baseman Chase Headley, inking lefty reliever Andrew Miller and trading for shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Various reports have popped up that indicate the Yankees could jump into the Scherzer mix at some point toward the end, including one from Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. But so far, general manager Brian Cashman has held steady in his oft-repeated winter plans not to spend big, according to Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.

Maybe, however, the loss of right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, the most durable and consistent member of an intriguing but injury-prone rotation, will force the Yankees’ hand on Scherzer. (On Monday, the news broke that Kuroda would return to Japan, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.)

“The Yankees need [Scherzer],” Justice wrote. “He might be the difference between making the playoffs and missing out for a third straight year. As long as Scherzer is still on the market, the Yanks have to be considered a contender.”

The other teams that have the funds and could make sense as a fit? The Giants, Angels and Red Sox each have a need at the top of their rotations and the money to make a very bold move.

And while the Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals and Tigers, with whom Scherzer spent the past five seasons, seem to have enough arms at the moment, they simply might get greedy and stock up on as much talent as possible in their respective quests to get to the World Series.

Then again, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said in mid-December, “I guess anything can happen, but we’re not in active pursuit of that situation at this time,” via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

Still, that doesn’t mean owner Mike Ilitch, who has a history of signing Boras clients and has been chasing a World Series title for the past handful of seasons now, won’t find a way to pony up to keep Scherzer around.

 

Timing and Desperation

If Shields signs first, Scherzer’s status on the open market would certainly be affected. 

On one hand, if Shields comes off the board before Scherzer does, then that makes Scherzer the very last prize among free agents. That’s not a bad position to be in, especially when a team or three is likely to be desperate after missing out on Shields.

Depending on how long Boras and Scherzer let this play out, desperation also could set in if a club gets bad news about one of its pitchers between now and the start of spring training in mid-February. Should anything happen to a key arm on a contending team, the circumstances would change immediately.

 

The Alleged Arms Race

One of the biggest storylines of this busy offseason has been how many great pitchers are available between free agency and trades.

Well, aside from Scherzer and Shields, the free-agent well has just about dried up, what with the likes of Ryan Vogelsong, Aaron Harang and Roberto Hernandez looking like the next-best arms on the open market. Remember: Japanese star Kenta Maeda isn’t going to be posted, news that broke before Kuroda’s decision. 

On the trade front, however, there are still a handful of big names that have been mentioned, including Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and Zack Greinke, the latter two of which could be replaced by Scherzer were the Washington Nationals or Los Angeles Dodgers actually to make such a move.

It could very well be, though, that those very top arms actually won’t change teams. So far, the best pitchers to be traded are more of the No. 2- or No. 3-starter caliber like Jeff Samardzija, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, Shelby Miller and Wade Miley.

That makes Scherzer look more attractive, especially since he costs only money as opposed to money and talent, which would be the price for, say, Hamels or Cueto.

 

Contenders over Pretenders

Dollars appear to be driving Scherzer’s search for a team, as is often the case when Boras is involved.

That said, Scherzer undoubtedly wants to win after reaching the playoffs the past four years, but ultimately falling short of the World Series each time. 

Therefore, an in-his-prime ace like Scherzer is not going to sign with the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies or any other team that isn’t already a contender, or at least on the very precipice of being one.

As much as money matters, winning while at the top of your game, like Scherzer is right now, also presents a powerful pull.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Yoan Moncada Is Now the Clear No. 1 Bat on the Free-Agent Market

If you happen to have sneaked a peek at the position players still available in free agency lately, you probably noticed something right away—there’s not much left out there worth getting excited about. Except for Yoan Moncada, the next Cuban phenom.

Hanley Ramirez? Off the board to the Boston Red Sox. Pablo Sandoval? Ditto.

Russell Martin? Now a Toronto Blue Jay. Yasmany Tomas? Welcome to America and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Victor Martinez? Re-signed with the Detroit Tigers. Chase Headley? With the New York Yankees.

Those hitters who remain free agents include the likes of—no drum roll needed—Asdrubal Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, Stephen Drew, Everth Cabrera, Rickie Weeks, Mike Carp, Juan Francisco, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Ludwick and Emilio Bonifacio, among other even lesser players.

So with all of the big-name free-agent position players signed, sealed and delivered, the top target hitting option on the open market heading into the new year is none other than—drum roll, please—Mr. Moncada.

By now, you should be at least a little familiar with the 6’0″, 210-pound, 19-year-old switch-hitting infielder who possesses plus tools and an all-around skill set.

Moncada hit .273/.365/.406 for Cienfuegos in Cuba’s top professional league, Serie Nacional, from 2013-14, which is especially impressive for a teenager.

Moncada left Cuba—legally—in June, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reported. He then gained residency in Guatemala, where he held his initial showcase workout for all Major League Baseball teams in mid-November, as Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote:

Moncada took several rounds of batting practice from both sides of the plate, performing much better from the left side, consistent with what scouts who have followed him over the years have said. He showed excellent bat speed and plus raw power, though after a long day and a lot of swings so scouts could see him from both sides of the plate, he did seem to wear down.

He showed his plus speed by running the 60-yard dash in around 6.6 seconds, and he took groundballs at shortstop, second and third base. In Cuba’s 18U national league in 2012, Moncada played shortstop, though that’s mostly because he was the best athlete on the field. At junior national tournaments, Moncada has played third and second, and he’s been primarily a second baseman for Cienfuegos during his two seasons in Serie Nacional.

Scouts said Moncada looked uncomfortable at shortstop, which they expected, but looked more natural at third and second, the positions he’s most likely to play in pro ball, although he has plenty of speed to go to the outfield if a team sees him as a fit there. He has at least a plus arm, with some scouts giving it a 70 grade.

Back in November, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports speculated that Moncada could net upward of $30 million to $40 million despite the fact that he is subject to international bonus pool allotments. Passan did note, however, that spending over the amount available for international amateurs would incur a 100 percent tax, meaning a $30 million deal would “cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million.”

Given the leftovers on the position player front, expect the price to be pushed toward the high end of any dollar amounts floated over the coming days and weeks—even with the built-in penalty.

Thing is, while MLB has declared Moncada a free agent, he has not yet been cleared by the United States’ Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a necessary step to allow him to sign with a team.

Not that this is dampening the hype surrounding Moncada and his massive potential.

“In the end,” an American League team executive said via Jorge Arangure Jr. of Vice Sports, “someone is going to spend smartly to get the services of a player that can change a franchise.”

For now? The baseball world waits. If anything, the anticipation and speculation is only working in Moncada‘s favor.

Among the teams that have been mentioned as the primary suitors for Moncada are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, according to Badler.

But pretty much every team wants in on Moncada.

The chance to sign him appears to be nearing. He has made his way into the United States and is preparing to start private workouts with MLB clubs very soon, per Sanchez.

The interest and intrigue over Moncada is growing, both with each passing day and with each free-agent hitter that comes off the board.

Considering there are so few worthwhile players left, it’s no wonder the allure and potential of Moncada has made him the top free-agent position player. Even if he’s not actually available just yet.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


What Is James Shields Truly Worth in Today’s MLB Pitching Market?

With the calendar ready to flip to 2015, two big-name, big-money free agents remain on the market in Max Scherzer and James Shields, both of whom are proven, highly regarded right-handed starting pitchers looking to score massive contracts.

We’ve already covered the potential payday for Scherzer, so it’s time to give Shields the same treatment, especially in light of recent news that he could be looking for something in the range of $110 million over five years, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.

The San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are three teams mentioned as possible suitors for Shields, per Cafardo. Having three big-market franchises drive up the price certainly could help his case.

Let’s start with what we know in the context of this offseason.

Jon Lester, who, along with Scherzer, was arguably the top free agent this year, scored a six-year, $155 million pact with the Chicago Cubs at the winter meetings. Scherzer’s camp, meanwhile, has been more open about his intentions, namely getting north of $200 million, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.

Most would agree that Shields isn’t in the same class as Scherzer and Lester, though, so a deal for $150 million-plus, like the one Lester already signed and the one Scherzer is trying to top, is out of the question.

But many would argue that Shields is a lot better, safer and more consistent than, say, Brandon McCarthy, the injury-prone right-hander who got $48 million over four years from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Then there’s Ervin Santana, another righty, who picked up $55 million in his four-year contract with the Minnesota Twins.

So Shields’ deal will fall somewhere between $55 million and $155 million, but (no duh) that’s a rather wide gap, to put it mildly.

It might sound surprising initially, but in a way, Shields is something of a rich man’s Santana. After all, both are proven, experienced right-handers over 30 years old with a history of durability and better-than-league-average production but not quite ace-caliber performances.

Both Shields and Santana also have had fluctuations in their production, including multiple seasons in which they were very hittable and homer-prone. Just check out Shields’ 2009 and 2010, and Santana’s 2009 and 2012.

Shields’ reputation carries more weight, and in fact, he has been a better pitcher than Santana, but it’s not crazy to suggest that Shields is closer in value to Santana than he is to Lester and Scherzer.

When put in that context, Shields shouldn’t be a $100 million arm—not when Santana is a $55 million one. Even that price seems a steep one for the Twins to have paid.

In the history of Major League Baseball prior to this offseason, only 25 players had signed contracts worth $100 million or more as free agents. Lester, of course, became the 26th.

Of that very small batch, including Lester, just 14—barely half—were entering their age-30-or-older season, and only eight were pitchers.

Combining those two subsets—that is, free-agent pitchers who inked nine-figure contracts after turning 30—leaves us with (count ’em) three up to this point in time: Kevin Brown, Cliff Lee and Lester.

Here’s where we remind you that Shields is not only a free-agent pitcher, but also one who is heading into his age-33 campaign in 2015.

Lest we forget about Shields’ failures in the playoffs—despite his “Big Game” moniker, he owns a 5.46 ERA in 59.1 innings (11 starts) in his October career—that also should be factored into his price tag.

Ultimately, it’s possible that Shields could net the nine-figure contract he’s seeking, because, hey, inflation also has to factor in, right? But if so, he’ll become only the fourth over-30 starter to get that much as a free agent. Ever.

A more acceptable and justifiable amount for Shields would be something along the lines of the five-year, $82.5 million contracts that both A.J. Burnett and John Lackey signed—the former with the New York Yankees entering his age-32 season in 2009, and the latter with the Boston Red Sox heading into his age-31 season in 2010.

Add in some value for Shields’ consistency and durability by comparison, as well as a few years’ worth of inflation, then subtract for his older age, and Shields might—might—be worth going to for $85 million to $90 million—but over four years instead of five—for a contending team with a rotation need.

That’s still about $22 million in average annual value, which would place Shields just outside the top 10 in that category for starting pitchers.

There’s also plenty of risk in giving a 33-year-old pitcher that much money, even one who has no history of arm troubles and has made at least 31 starts and thrown at least 203 innings every year since 2007, as Shields has.

Remember how those Burnett and Lackey contracts played out?

Shields has been a very good pitcher for a really long time, and he’s going to benefit from being one of only two high-end arms left in free agency. That allows him the opportunity to ask for $110 million.

It doesn’t, however, mean any team has to—or should—pay that much.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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