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Max Scherzer spent the 2014 season doing more than just playing baseball. During the course of the year, from spring training through the playoffs, the free-agent right-hander also was conducting a rather interesting—and really risky—experiment of sorts.

Coming off a career year in which he won the American League Cy Young in 2013, Scherzer famously rejected a six-year, $144 million extension from the Detroit Tigers last March.

At the time, that amount would have made him the seventh highest-paid pitcher in history, which is why the decision could have been described as anything from questionable to silly to selfish—and, yes, even brilliant.

Sure, Scherzer could have signed on the dotted line right then and there and secured more money than just about any human being has a right even to dream earning in a lifetime.

Instead, Scherzer gambled on himself, figuring that with another strong season, he would be entering free agency, where his market would explode from a single team (the Tigers) to all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball. So, too, would the money.

“Back then only we could have signed him,” Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post, about last March’s offer. “Now, 29 other teams could sign him. As you see, the odds don’t improve.”

That’s how Scherzer and superagent Scott Boras, who almost always gets top dollar for his elite clients, decided to let this experiment play out.

After a 2014 season that was nearly as great as his award-winning 2013—his ERA (2.90 in ’13 vs. 3.15 in ’14) and FIP (2.74 vs. 2.85) were more or less the same—Scherzer has set himself up rather nicely this offseason.

Or has he?

While the 30-year-old right-hander unquestionably is going to get a massive multiyear, nine-figure contract, there are reasons he and Boras might be sweating things out at least a little bit, even as the temperatures dip this winter.

For one thing, a number of teams already have spent big merely a month into the offseason.

The Tigers, with whom Scherzer played the past five years, chose to re-sign designated hitter Victor Martinez for $68 million.

The Boston Red Sox, who have a major need for starting pitching, handed out large contracts to position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million over four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million for five).

The Toronto Blue Jays, another team that has a hole at the top of its rotation, splurged on catcher Russell Martin, who netted $82 million, the second-largest deal in franchise history.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, yet another club searching for arms, signed outfielder Yasmany Tomas—perhaps the next Cuban phenom—to a six-year, $68.5 million pact.

The Seattle Mariners just agreed to pay DH Nelson Cruz $57 million to help them end their 13-year playoff drought after inking third baseman Kyle Seager to a $100 million extension.

Put simply, a number of teams that could have splurged on Scherzer—and a lot of the money that could have been forked over to him—now cannot.

The second reason Scherzer‘s experiment might not necessarily pay off quite as much as he and Boras had hoped? The pitching market is absolutely flooded at the moment.

There are all kinds of free-agent arms, including high-end names Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as others like Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy.

And on the trade front, there are even more highly regarded options. Among them? The Philadelphia Phillies’ Cole Hamels, the Oakland Athletics’ Jeff Samardzija, the Washington Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, the Cincinnati Reds’ Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos and the San Diego Padres’ Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy.

With so many pitchers readily and apparently available, it’s at least possible that teams will look elsewhere at less expensive—but still very good—options rather than give in to Scherzer and Boras‘ demands.

In such a scenario, they might not be able to do much better than the $144 million.

“It’s not the best time to be looking for a big deal,” one unnamed GM told Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required).

On the other hand, two things remain very much in Scherzer‘s favor.

First, he is considered arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason along with Lester. Historically speaking, that player almost always gets paid as much as—if not more than—expected.

And because he is a free agent, Scherzer‘s services can be acquired strictly for cash. Granted, the signing team also will lose a draft pick because he rejected the qualifying offer, but the club won’t have to surrender talent from the major or minor leagues to get him, unlike a team would for each of the trade candidates above.

Second, there has been almost no action involving pitchers so far.

The most notable free agent to sign so far? That’d be A.J. Burnett, who turns 38 in January and got $8.5 million from the Pittsburgh Pirates after posting a 4.59 ERA for the Phillies and then considering retirement.

In terms of trades, the biggest pitchers to change jerseys are Shelby Miller, who went from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Atlanta Braves, and Jeremy Hellickson, who went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Diamondbacks. (Is your spine also not tingling?)

That means the high point of the salary scale for pitchers hasn’t been set or even approached yet.

That could change soon, as there has been plenty of heat around Lester, who has met with several clubs and reportedly has an offer of $138 million from the Chicago Cubs, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

If the left-hander gets $130 million to $140 million—or more—than Scherzer should be able to beat that considering he is as good as, if not better than, Lester and thus would become indisputably the premier target left on the open market.

The other factor here? Boras is known for his slow-burn strategy, having his top-tier clients remain available for a long time, well beyond the winter meetings and even occasionally into the new year, at which point the market clears up and desperation starts to seep in—for the teams.

As Olney writes:

Some club evaluators fully expect Scherzer‘s contract talks to carry over for weeks, as agent Scott Boras works to make a big deal happen—something significantly more than the six-year, $144 million deal that the Tigers offered to Scherzer in the spring. Boras‘ negotiations often play out way past the winter meetings, and there is so little current buzz around Scherzer.

To that end, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, the teams with the two highest payrolls in 2014, have yet to do much of anything this offseason.

While the former doesn’t have a huge need for a starting pitcher and the latter claims to be staying away from big-money contracts (for once), per the New York Daily News, it wouldn’t be a shock to see one or both go in on Scherzer, depending on how their plans work out—or don’t.

Scherzer and Boras ultimately need only two suitors willing to spend in order to create leverage and drive up the price for the right-hander.

While it’s been quiet so far, chances are the top free agent and top agent will be able to devise just such a scenario, one likely involving more than two teams.

Once that happens, whether it’s in the coming days, weeks or even in a month or two, expect Scherzer to do better than the $144 million he turned down.

The ultimate price tag attached to him might not be much above that amount, but even if it’s $145 million—to say nothing of $150 million or $160 million—the plan will have been carried out as predicted.

Scherzer‘s experiment will have worked.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Seattle Mariners are betting big that Nelson Cruz, whose 40 home runs led all of Major League Baseball in 2014, can help get them to the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Like, 13 years long.

The Mariners went 87-75 last year—their first winning season since 2009—and missed out on the postseason by a single, solitary game. On the final day, they actually had a chance at a Game 163 if the Oakland Athletics had lost.

Instead, the A’s won to advance to the Wild Card Game, while the M’s still haven’t played October baseball since 2001.

That’s a long, long time to wait, which is why Seattle reportedly has spent a lot of money over a lot of years—$57 million over four, to be exact, according to Yancen Pujols of Dominican newspaper El Caribe—to bring aboard Cruz, thus filling the club’s primary need for a power hitter from the right side.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick confirmed later Monday that Cruz and Seattle have an agreement in place, pending a physical.

That’s the big-money, multi-year contract Cruz was seeking this time a year ago, when his market was undercut by being attached to draft-pick compensation and having been suspended 50 games at the end of the 2013 season as part of the Biogenesis investigation.

Cruz wound up having to wait until late February—after pitchers and catchers had reported—to sign with the Baltimore Orioles, settling for a mere $8 million over one season.

It might seem odd that Cruz would see his value shoot up so much in the span of nine months, but two factors are at play.

One, the 34-year-old put together his most productive season, hitting .271/.333/.525 with 40 homers and 108 RBI, both career highs.

And two, Seattle had a major need for a big right-handed bat to team with perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano and underrated new $100 million man Kyle Seager, both of whom hit in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup and swing from the left side.

After all, in their desperation to fill that void and push toward the playoffs, the Mariners had been mentioned as suitors for everyone from no-longer free agent Hanley Ramirez, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, to trade targets Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.

The fact that Seattle didn’t have to trade any of its pitchers, including veteran Hisashi Iwakuma or top young arms righty Taijuan Walker or lefty James Paxton, allows the team to keep its dominant staff intact, with Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez leading the way.

That’s only going to help the M’s in their quest to end this 13-year postseason drought.

Seattle’s team ERA last season was 3.17, ranking second-best in baseball, behind only the Washington Nationals (3.03).

Offense, on the other hand, has long been a problem. The Mariners scored 634 runs in 2014, the 12th-lowest total in the sport. That was the club’s highest finish since it placed 12th back in 2007.

In the six years in between, Seattle ranked no higher than 22nd in runs and had a bottom-five total in five seasons.

One of Seattle’s biggest problem spots in 2014, in particular, was designated hitter, a position that Cruz fills, as Mike Axisa of CBS Sports points out:

Of course, that doesn’t mean Cruz comes without warts.

As Axisa alluded to, he is no longer a reasonable option to play defense, especially at his advancing age and with his injury history.

Then there’s the concern over Cruz’s drop-off in the second half last year. Following a first half in which he hit .287/.353/.570 with 28 homers in 93 games, Cruz batted just .249/.306/.463 with 12 home runs in 66 contests after the break.

The slugger also hasn’t fared all that well at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, which is notoriously tough on right-handed hitters, per Stat Corner. In 204 career plate appearances at his new home field, Cruz owns a .234/.309/.440 line with nine home runs.

The Mariners also forfeit their first-round selection in June by virtue of inking Cruz, who rejected the $15.3 million qualifying offer from the Orioles last month.

Even still, this is a move Seattle almost had to make given all that’s at stake for this franchise in the wake of Cano’s $240 million contract, Seager’s extension and Hernandez being in the prime of his career.

The Mariners and Cruz were the right fit all along, as Paul Casella writes for Sports on Earth: “Cruz is coming off hitting a career-best and major league-leading 40 home runs this past season. The Mariners, meanwhile, hit fewer home runs against left-handed pitchers than any team in the [AL].”

And as competitive as the AL West was in 2014, it also appears to be a division in flux this winter, which is a good thing for Seattle.

The Los Angeles Angels finished with the best record in baseball (98-64), and their offense remains dangerous, but the pitching staff is much less so. Young righty Garrett Richards is still recovering from knee surgery, and southpaw Tyler Skaggs will miss all of 2015 after Tommy John surgery.

The Athletics have had an odd offseason so far, signing Billy Butler but then trading away Josh Donaldson, their best player, on Friday. There’s also speculation that right-hander Jeff Samardzija could be on his way out too, according to Heyman.

The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, seem to be stuck in neutral this winter after making major moves, like trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, last offseason. Thanks to injuries to those two and many others, they finished with the third-worst record in baseball at 67-95.

The Houston Astros, coming off a fourth consecutive 90-plus-loss campaign, aren’t sniffing the playoffs any time soon.

A four-year pact worth nearly $60 million for a player like Cruz, who will turn 35 on July 1, has a performance-enhancing-drug suspension in his recent past and also has significant limitations—both defensively and health-wise—is certainly a risk.

Players with profiles similar to Cruz do tend to go south quickly, so the M’s are hoping that they’ll get one or two healthy, productive years out of this contract before it takes a turn for the worse.

The good news is if Cruz can hit anywhere near the level he did in 2014, there’s a good chance this deal will be worth it for Seattle, no matter what happens in the later years.

That’s the power of simply making it back to October for the first time since 2001.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While the rest of Major League Baseball was spending the evening of Black Friday recovering from all the hectic holiday shopping and Thanksgiving leftovers, the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics were busy putting the finishing touches on a blockbuster trade.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who ascended from out of nowhere in 2013 to become the central figure in the past two of Oakland’s three straight trips to the postseason, has been sent to Toronto in exchange for fellow hot-corner man Brett Lawrie and three prospects, according to the A’s official Twitter account:

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was the first to break the news.

This deal is a significant one for both clubs, but it means very different things for each.

On one hand, the Blue Jays clearly are gearing up to make a push in 2015 to end what is now MLB‘s longest active October-less streak, dating back to 1993.

The acquisition of Donaldson, who turns 29 on Dec. 8 and is fresh off two MVP-level campaigns as one of the sport’s best all-around third basemen, comes a little over a week after Toronto handed out a five-year, $82 million contract—the second largest in franchise history—to catcher Russell Martin.

Those two moves, combined with the offensive talent the Jays already have in place—namely right fielder Jose Bautista, first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and shortstop Jose Reyes—suddenly make this one of the most dangerous lineups around.

Although the fact that all five swing from the right side (Reyes is a switch-hitter)—something general manager Alex Anthopoulos will want to address—each provides either on-base ability or power. Or both.

To put some numbers to the names, here’s a rundown of each player’s relevant statistics in those categories:

Considering how unpredictable the AL East proved to be in 2014, the Jays seem to be sensing this is their shot to go for it, and they may not be done, as Jim Bowden of ESPN notes:

Given that the reigning division champion Baltimore Orioles have yet to make any moves, while the 2013 World Series-winning Boston Red Sox just brought in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval—the top two hitters on the free-agent market—it’s shaping up to be an interesting offseason in the East.

And things may just be getting started.

Speaking of going for it, that’s just what the Athletics did in 2014, albeit to an outcome that ultimately was extremely disappointing.

In early July—Independence Day, to be exact—they traded top prospect Addison Russell to the Chicago Cubs for right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

It was a definitive 2014-or-bust move, one that GM Billy Beane followed up a few weeks later by swapping his cleanup hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, for left-hander Jon Lester to further beef up the rotation of a team that looked destined for the playoffs as the best in the majors in the first half.

Alas, Oakland fell apart in the second half, going just 29-38 to finish behind the surging Los Angeles Angels in the AL West.

The slow-motion collapse became complete when Lester, obtained in part because he is one of the top playoff pitchers of this era, couldn’t hold a 7-3 lead in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card Game against the upstart Kansas City Royals, whose postseason-less drought dating back to 1985 was the only one longer than the Blue Jays’.

Now that Donaldson is gone, the last memory of him in an A’s uniform will be of his fruitless diving attempt to snag Salvador Perez’s hard-hit liner down the left-field line that proved to be the game-winner in the 12th inning.

In the wake of that gut-wrenching loss, there has been speculation that the A’s might consider trading off some key pieces, namely Samardzija, who can become a free agent after 2015.

Donaldson’s name had been brought up, too, but given that he’s still in his prime and is one of the best values in MLB—his projected 2015 salary via arbitration is a mere $4.5 million, per MLB Trade Rumors—it wasn’t as if he had to be moved.

Plus, Beane just spent $30 million in a curious move not even two weeks ago to sign designated hitter Billy Butler to help replace the right-handed bat in the lineup that departed when he traded Cespedes.

But with Lester a free agent, Cespedes still in Boston (at the moment?), Samardzija now even more likely to be moved and Donaldson in Toronto, it’s obvious the A’s are going back to the drawing board after three consecutive trips to the postseason.

This is the way Beane and his front-office cohorts of a mini-market franchise have to operate—by zigging when others would zag.

The goal, of course, is to get younger, cheaper, team-controllable talent, both in terms of quality and quantity. That’s the only way the A’s can create a window of opportunity to have any sort of sustained success.

The return in this particular trade, however, does feel light, especially with how productive and more importantly, how valuable—in the true definition of the word—Donaldson has been.

While still only 24 years old, Lawrie has battled numerous injury problems in his career and hasn’t impressed in the majors since his rookie season in 2011. He’ll likely take over for Donaldson at third base in Oakland, a rather precipitous drop-off.

As for the three prospects—infielder Franklin Barreto, lefty Sean Nolin and righty Kendall Graveman—none is considered a can’t-miss type. Only Barreto, at No. 5, checked in as part of the Jays’ top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America.

Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus would have ranked the three as follows in Toronto’s system, per Chris Mellen:

Barreto has the most upside, but he’s also an 18-year-old who has yet to play above low-A.

Both Nolin and Graveman have reached the major leagues, but they have accumulated just seven innings combined. As such, they may not yet be ready to join Oakland’s 25-man roster on Opening Day 2015, and even if they do, neither projects as more than a mid-rotation arm at best.

It’s a testament to Anthopoulos that he was able to pull off this trade without having to surrender any of Toronto’s very best prospects, including right-hander Aaron Sanchez or southpaw Daniel Norris. Those two will only help strengthen the Jays during a 2015 season that certainly is setting up to be rather promising.

As for Beane, well, he likely has more maneuvers in mind, starting with swapping Samardzija, as he looks to rebuild the Athletics yet again now that the team’s window has all but shut.

Friday night’s trade was indeed a significant blockbuster for both the Jays and the A’s, two teams now headed in very different directions.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

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Major League Baseball’s offseason isn’t yet a month old, and teams have already spent upward of $400 million combined in free agency, a majority of which came from the Boston Red Sox’s same-day splurge on top position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million for four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million over five).

For context, the free-agent spending last winter, according to ESPN, checked in at a whopping total $1,861,775,000—that’s nearly two billion—an increase from the $1,335,525,000 burned the year prior.

That’s more than a $500 million jump, if you’re counting along at home with your abacus.

This is only counting dollars spent in free agency, an increasingly expensive nexus where the ever-growing demand continues to reign over the always-shrinking supply. 

In part, this is the case because baseball’s finances are exploding thanks to massive national and regional television deals, thus pumping more money into the mix. At the same time, teams are locking up their own young players with long-term extensions more often, thus diluting the pool of players available in free agency every year.

That’s how someone like Russell Martin, a fine all-around player with a skill set that includes above-average defense and on-base ability on offense—but more importantly, the lone definitive starting catcher available on the open market this offseason—can score a five-year, $82 million contract despite entering his age-32 season a year removed from hitting .211.

“There aren’t as many quality, younger free agents out there,” an unnamed baseball executive said in early November, via Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. “Teams are keeping their guys, signing them to extensions. The numbers to choose from are less and less, so free agency is not always the answer.”

Broadening the scope to include extensions, it’s also how a superstar like Giancarlo Stanton, in the prime of his career at age 25, can find himself signing a record-setting, 13-year, $325 million pact with a Miami Marlins team that ranked dead last in team payroll in 2014.

Or how Kyle Seager, the very good but little-known Seattle Mariners third baseman, can put his John Hancock on an extension that will pay him $100 million over the next seven years. Ask the casual baseball fan if Seager is worth a nine-figure contract, and the answer is liable to be: “Kyle who?”

All of which should make it pretty obvious that the international free-agent market remains one of the few areas (along with the draft) where teams can find not only good values, but in many cases, actual bargains.

Take a look at these “big-money” deals (at least $30 million in total value) signed by international free agents who have made it to MLB over the past five years:

That reads like an all-star team, doesn’t it? And given the price tags attached to them, these signings look well worth it in most, if not all, cases.

No wonder clubs are willing to throw money at highly regarded foreign players before they have played even a single inning in America. In fact, these expenditures are less costly than those for actual, proven MLB free agents because these players are untested in the majors.

On Nov. 26, that final name, Yasmany Tomas, was added to the above list. The slugging Cuban outfielder agreed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Yes, that’s a lot of money, and it could backfire if Tomas doesn’t live up to the hype and expectations. But if he does—which is to say, if he performs like most of his recent fellow Cuban predecessors—that has the potential to be yet another steal. At least, relative to the dollars being dished out in non-international free agency.

OK, so the $155 million the New York Yankees paid to pick up Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka last January can’t exactly be called a bargain. Then again, the right-hander was available at the age of 25 and did look like one of the very best pitchers in baseball over the first half of his rookie season before an elbow injury sidelined him.

At some point—and soon—even the international market no longer will offer good values, in large part because so many of the players to come from Cuba (Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes), Japan (Tanaka, Yu Darvish) and Korea (Hyun-Jin Ryu) in recent years have had immediate impacts and significant success in the majors.

There will come a time when an MLB club will splurge on a supposed-to-be star from a foreign land who disappoints or perhaps doesn’t even reach The Show, and some teams will get wallet-shy as a result.

Maybe that could happen with Tomas. Or perhaps it will be the case for one or both of the other two possible international free agents who are generating a lot of buzz right now: 19-year-old Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada and Kenta Maeda, the 26-year-old Japanese right-hander.

But judging by the recent track record of these players, it’s more likely that this market will get pushed into a territory close to the current MLB free-agent market, where $100 million deals are commonplace and bargains are few and far between.

That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the business of baseball, because big-time players would be getting paid big-time money, no matter where they’re born or where they played professionally before coming to MLB.

But just imagine how much harder it will be for all 30 teams to shop in, let alone find, the “bargain bin” then.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The chance for debate in Major League Baseball never ends. The individual awards were just handed out, and as if on cue, here comes the announcement for the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot ready to provide the next topic sure to spark discussion and more than a little disagreement.

There are plenty of subplots to consider—will Craig Biggio get in after missing by a mere two votes last time? what happens to those with links to performance-enhancing drugs (whether rumored or real)? which players will the ongoing bottleneck hurt most?—but the focus here is on one new name to the list, in particular.

Of the three big-name pitchers added to the this year’s Hall of Fame ballot—Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz—the first two are no-doubt first-ballot entries. The third has a great chance of being voted in too, but his case isn’t quite as open-and-shut by comparison.

As impressive as Smoltz was over his 21 years in Major League Baseball, his accomplishments aren’t on par with those of Johnson and Martinez. That shouldn’t be held against Smoltz, of course, but it does mean he is overshadowed by two better pitchers—heck, two all-time greats—in year one.

That presents the possibility Smoltz might not make it to Cooperstown in his first go-around.

Johnson, who won five Cy Young Awards, including a record-tying four straight (1999-02), finished his 22-year career with 303 wins and 4,875 strikeouts, second most all time behind Nolan Ryan’s 5,714.

Martinez, in his 18 seasons, posted the sixth-best winning percentage ever (.687) and owned a 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. He also won the Cy three times (1997, 1999-00), with his very best seasons at the height of the steroid era in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Those two? They’re getting in, and they’re likely getting upward of 95 percent of the vote as two of the very best in baseball history.

Plain as day, both Johnson and Martinez rank in the top 20 among pitchers, according to both versions of wins above replacement, fWAR (from FanGraphs) and rWAR (from Baseball-Reference.com). They were as good as it gets in their time—and rank right up there all time too.

Smoltz was dominant in his own right, and for a very long time—he’s one of only 16 pitchers with 3,000 career strikeouts—but his career path was quite different from that of Johnson and Martinez.

A huge part of the Braves’ success throughout the 1990s and into the early 2000s—remember, they won an unprecedented 14 consecutive division titles—Smoltz split his career between the rotation and the bullpen.

While both Johnson and Martinez started at least 85 percent of their career appearances, Smoltz worked in relief in 242 of his 723 games—or about 33 percent.

The switch from starter to reliever came late in his career, after Smoltz underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of the 2000 season. He eventually did return to starting to wrap up his time in the majors.

“When I was playing, I wanted to win more than anything,” Smoltz said via Barry Bloom of MLB.com. “I never really even contemplated any of those decisions when I changed direction in my career for the risk or reward of the Hall of Fame. That never even entered my mind.”

That back-and-forth could work against Smoltz, even if the right-hander was an incredibly effective closer, compiling 154 saves, a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his four seasons in the pen (2001-04).

So could the fact that Smoltz wasn’t the best pitcher on his own team for almost every one of his 21 seasons.

Again, however, that can’t be held against the now 47-year-old, who just so happened to pitch alongside Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine—both of whom earned 90-plus percent of the vote to make the Hall as first-timers last year—for so much of his career.

Now that he’s joining the ballot with Johnson and Martinez, Smoltz is once again overshadowed.

But this is more than just a player who can make a claim as the first—and still only—pitcher ever to have at least 200 wins (213) and 150 saves (154) in his career. Smoltz also won the 1996 NL Cy Young and has one of the very best playoff resumes around.

Only Andy Pettitte, with 19, has more postseason wins than Smoltz’s 15. What’s more, his 209.0 innings check in as the third most, and nobody has more than Smoltz’s 199 strikeouts in October.

And here’s that same fWAR/rWAR chart from above, only with Smoltz’s fWAR and rWAR included too:

By either measure, Smoltz is a top-40 pitcher in MLB history, and he has a case for being in the top 25, at least in the context of FanGraphs.

Here’s where one last wrench can be thrown when it comes to Smoltz’s shot at getting into the Hall, especially on his first attempt.

Not counting Johnson and Martinez, of the 36 pitchers who rate ahead of Smoltz on the career rWAR list, there are six who are not enshrined, including Rick Reuschel, whose career began 16 years before Smoltz’s did and Jim McCormick, whose career dates back to, well, practically the Civil War.

The other four, however, are contemporaries of Smoltz: Roger Clemens (139.5 fWAR/139.4 rWAR), Mike Mussina (82.5/82.7), Curt Schilling (83.2/80.7) and Kevin Brown (73.5/68.5).

This foursome represents a wide range of outcomes on the Hall of Fame voting scale, as Clemens has yet to make it in, only because of his PED-linked past; while Brown surprisingly failed to garner even the necessary 5 percent of votes in his first year and thus dropped off the ballot.

Mussina and Schilling both were stuck in the who-knows 20 percent territory last year and appear to be victims of the recent overload of worthy (or near-worthy) players that has hampered Baseball Writers Association of America voters who can choose only up to 10 players in a given year.

The guess here, though, is that the latter two eventually will get in—and deservedly so—and that Smoltz will receive a boost for his success as both a starter and a closer, even if that’s more superficial than substantive.

There’s also the chance Smoltz will get an extra push from being considered alongside former Braves rotation-mates Maddux and Glavine as well as longtime skipper Bobby Cox, all three of whom were inducted last year while Smoltz was in Cooperstown as an analyst for MLB Network.

“I thought it was one of the coolest things I have ever been a part of,” Smoltz said via Bloom. “I mean that from a standpoint of even if I never get in.”

Smoltz shouldn’t have to worry about never getting in—he will. And it very well could happen on his first shot.

Ultimately, if the question is one of worthiness, when the results are announced on Jan. 6, 2015, Johnson, Martinez and Smoltz all should be in.

But given the number of Hall-worthy candidates still in the mix and that writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players—not to mention that Smoltz isn’t quite the shoe-in Johnson and Martinez are and has a few contemporaries who aren’t yet in—don’t be surprised if Maddux and Glavine don’t see their former teammate join them right away.

Regardless, Smoltz should be prepared to make a speech during the Hall of Fame’s induction weekend. It just might not happen next July.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Boston Red Sox had a busy day on Monday, working out deals with both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, arguably the top two hitters in free agency. The rest of the offseason could be just as busy, especially given that this club is hoping to go from worst to World Series winners all over again.

Ramirez, the former Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop, has an agreement for $88 million over four years with a vesting option for a fifth year (at the same $22 million per), according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com.

The switch-hitting Sandoval, meanwhile, is leaving the San Francisco Giants, with whom he won three titles and established himself as one of the premier postseason players around over the past five seasons. The third baseman is getting a five-year deal in the range of $100 million, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Two major moves in one day means a number of ramifications—and even more still to come from the Red Sox and general manager Ben Cherington, whose wheeling-and-dealing evoked memories of his fast and furious efforts at the July 31st trade deadline.

Immediately, Boston’s bats are much, much better than they were in 2014, a season in which the team finished 71-91—last in the American League East—and ranked in the bottom five in the AL in runs (634), home runs (123) and on-base plus slugging (.684).

While Sandoval will take over as the starting third baseman, a position that has posed problems for the Red Sox in recent years, it is not yet known what the plans are for Ramirez. He won’t be playing shortstop, a position that belongs to 22-year-old Xander Bogaerts.

“One option is that Ramirez—who turns 31 next month—could move to the outfield,” Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “Though Ramirez has never played the outfield in the Major Leagues, he certainly seems to have the athleticism that would be necessary to make that transition.”

While that may still be TBD at the moment, one thing is not: The Red Sox, who entered the offseason with some excess hitters, now have all kinds of surplus on the position-player front.

As Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) writes:

Elite hitters are scarce, which is why the Red Sox landed Sandoval even after getting a deal done with Ramirez. Assuming i’s are dotted and t’s crossed, the Red Sox will sign the two best hitters in the free-agent market. …

…Possessing good hitters is like holding gold, and the Red Sox have a stack of commodities from which to deal.

This has led to immediate speculation that Cherington has more up his sleeve, because, frankly, he has to.

The additions of Ramirez and Sandoval make Boston better, but they also make the roster even more unbalanced than it was 24 hours ago. The Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders, cornermen and designated hitter types but are severely lacking in proven pitching.

To wit, the only pitcher on the entire 40-man roster with more than 50 starts to his name is Clay Buchholz, the 30-year-old right-hander who brandished an unwieldy 5.34 ERA in 2014 and has been as enigmatic and inconsistent as any starter in baseball in recent years.

The other potential members of the five-man rotation include Joe Kelly (48 career starts), Rubby De La Rosa (28), Allen Webster (18) and Brandon Workman (18), as well as rookies Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes, who haven’t even combined for 50 innings total.

In other words, after trading away 80 percent of his rotation in July, Cherington’s biggest priority at the outset of the offseason—starting pitching—is still his biggest priority. The good news, though, is he has plenty of pieces with which to work to address this need.

There have been no indications yet whether Monday’s deals will impact the Red Sox’s ability to bring in former ace Jon Lester, whom they traded away in July for slugging outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The club put an offer on the table last week to the left-hander in the neighborhood of $110 million to $120 million over six years, per Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.

“We need to add to our rotation,” Cherington said, via Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. “[Lester is] obviously a known commodity, a proven guy in our market. He’s of obvious interest.”

Speaking of Cespedes, he has been mentioned as just one of many trade chips—and perhaps the most likely to go—in the wake of this action.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes:

If you assume Ramirez plays left and [Rusney] Castillo either center or right, then Boston would have the following for outfield depth: Cespedes, [Allen] Craig, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley Jr., Daniel Nava, Brock Holt and Mookie Betts. The Red Sox have made it clear Betts is pretty much untouchable.

Also, with Sandoval in the fold, Boston has third baseman Will Middlebrooks to deal. Middlebrooks has not fulfilled his promise, but he still projects to have righty power, which is in demand. Also, the Red Sox could conceivably make first baseman Mike Napoli available and switch Craig to that position. In addition, well-regarded third base prospect Garin Cecchini, who played briefly in the majors last season, is now blocked and potentially available.

Given the demand for offense at a time when baseball is being dominated by pitching more and more, the Red Sox are in a very enviable position at the moment.

Plus, there’s plenty of depth and talent in available pitching. Max Scherzer, James Shields and Lester are out there on the open market, waiting to be plucked.

On the trade side, there are possible candidates like the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Cole Hamels and Oakland Athletics‘ Jeff Samardzija, as well as Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister of the Washington Nationals, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Cincinnati Reds and Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy of the San Diego Padres.

Landing two or more from the above names (or any others that are available) is now atop Cherington’s to-do list.

By snatching up Ramirez and Sandoval, the Red Sox made two major moves on Monday. The scary thing is, they’re far from finished.

In fact, they only just got started.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Coming off a 2014 season that was disappointing for both the Cincinnati Reds and Jay Bruce, it’s being reported the club might be dangling the two-time All-Star outfielder, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

The Reds are very much at a crossroads heading into 2015. Following a 76-86 campaign that was marred by injuries to a number of their key players, including Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Bruce, they could aim to keep the core together for another shot.

But the payroll is climbing, and four of their starting pitchers—Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon—have only one season left before they reach free agency.

So the other option is to make some pre-emptive moves to bring in players who are both younger and have several years of team control.

As Rosenthal writes: “Though club officials say the team is merely listening on players rather than shopping them, a trade of Bruce for more cost-effective talent would be a major step toward retooling with a lower payroll in 2015.”

Last season was the worst of Bruce’s seven-year career, as he hit just .217/.281/.373 with just 18 home runs. That can be attributed at least in part to the fact that the right fielder underwent left knee surgery in early May and missed less than three weeks but might not have been at full strength for much of the year.

That makes the timing here a bit odd: Bruce’s value on the trade market isn’t exactly at its highest point.

Still, the lefty slugger is a good candidate to bounce back to his previous levels of performance, considering he is only 27 years old and had a run of four straight seasons with at least 25 homers and an OPS north of .800 prior to last year.

Besides that, Bruce’s contract is rather reasonable; he’s owed $12 million in 2015, $12.5 million in 2016 and has a $13 million option in 2017 (with a $1 million buyout).

Aside from getting younger and cheaper, the Reds’ biggest needs are at shortstop and left field.

“We’re still talking to both agents and clubs about trades,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said via John Fay of the The Cincinnati Enquirer. “We really aren’t close on anything.”

With so much pitching available in both free agency and trades, clubs are yearning for offense, especially power, and Bruce provides just that. He’ll be a hot commodity and a good fit for a number of teams who have the desire and the means to acquire him.

Like these.

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In many ways, for many reasons, the New York Yankees trading for Troy Tulowitzki makes sense. After all, they’re the major-market, deep-pocketed, All-Star-obtaining Yankees, and in 2015, they’ll be embarking on their first season sans shortstop, captain and future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter.

How to fill a hole that has been occupied by the face of Major League Baseball and hasn’t needed filling in 20 years? If you’re the Yankees, it’s simple, really: Get the best available player to replace Jeter, of course.

Because make no mistake, for as many concerns and risks that come with Tulowitzki—and we’ll get to those—the Colorado Rockies star is undoubtedly the best shortstop in baseball, which is why this idea keeps popping up in rumor mills and on message boards.

Except doing just that not only isn’t simple, it’s rather complicated, perhaps in even more ways, and for even more reasons, than acquiring Tulowitzki would be.

The go-get-Tulo sentiment that has swelled among Yankees fans has only been bolstered by the recent news that the Rockies might actually entertain the idea of trading Tulowitzki, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

That’s an about-face from years past, when owner Dick Monfort had repeatedly held firm in his stance that Tulowitzki was too valuable to the franchise to be moved.

Really, these Tulowitzki rumors started back in July when he visited Yankee Stadium to catch Jeter, his baseball idol growing up, in action one final time before the Yankees captain hung ’em up. Relax: Tulowitzki already was in the area for a second opinion on—what else?—an injury.

“It’s a short drive from (my doctor in) Philly,” he told The Denver Post at the time (via Peter Botte and Stephen Lorenzo of the New York Daily News). “I wanted to see Jeter play one more time.”

Still, that was only a couple weeks after Tulowitzki had made it clear that he was open to the idea of moving on from Colorado if the team doesn’t turn things around soon, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. The club just finished its fourth consecutive losing season.

So if Tulowitzki is open to the idea and the Rockies seem to be, too, why is it such a bad one for the Yankees to consider?

For starters, there’s the money. After making $16 million in 2014, Tulowitzki’s salary jumps to $20 million per over the next five years through 2019—the highest per-year amount he’s owed over the life of the contract. The price settles back down to $14 million in 2020 and $15 million in 2021 (with a $4 million buyout that final year).

Tack on a $2 million bonus if he changes teams, and the total cost is at least $120 million through 2020. And here’s a little-known—and entirely terrifying—fact about Tulowitzki’s contract: He may only be traded one time without his permission.

Other factors, like age, performance, injury history and, primarily, salary, would make it nigh impossible to swap Tulowitzki if something goes south. But if the Rockies trade him, the next team actually is stuck with him. Like, contractually.

The money—$20 million a year—actually isn’t outrageous for a player like Tulowitzki. After all, there were reports earlier in the offseason that the Yankees might be interested in Elvis Andrus, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. By comparison, the 26-year-old Texas Rangers shortstop—a much less impactful player than Tulowitzki—is owed $15 million a season on his eight-year, $120 million extension that begins in 2015.

Plus, it’s not like the Yankees couldn’t afford to pay Tulowitzki’s contract.

Where it becomes a problem, however, is a combination of Tulowitzki’s age and injury history, two things that have plagued the Yankees in recent years, as the roster has been loaded with aging, injury-prone, overpriced former stars (read: Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, etc.).

Tulowitzki, who turned 30 in October, would just add to the pile.

Speaking of that injury history, here’s a rundown of the various ailments that have put Tulowitzki on the disabled list in his career and how many games he missed with each:

Add it all up, and Tulowitzki has averaged just 117 games a season starting with his 2007 rookie campaign. He has played more than 126 games exactly three times in those nine years.

His latest injury, the one that ended a 2014 campaign that was shaping up to be his best yet, was a torn labrum in his left hip—a rather concerning issue given his position. He had surgery in August and is on track to be ready for the start of 2015, if you believe new Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich.

The last reason why Tulowitzki-to-the-Yankees doesn’t make sense? What does New York have to trade to obtain him?

The Rockies continue to insist there is no discount for injury because he’s a premium, in-his-prime player at an up-the-middle position. So they want a full return for Tulowitzki, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, even though his trade value went from its peak to the pits with his latest season-ending surgery.

Bridich indicated his top priority is to acquire starting pitching—which is more or less a “no duh” when it comes to Colorado—but the Yankees don’t have much to give the Rockies to actually entice them.

The best options might be young right-hander Shane Greene, former top prospect Manny Banuelos and current top prospect Luis Severino. Is that enough to get a deal done? Probably not, from the Rockies’ point of view.

The bottom line is there’s no reason for the Yankees to take a huge risk by trading for Tulowitzki before he proves he’s healthy, and the Rockies have no motivation to move him until he plays, produces and pumps up his value first.

And even then, the risk would be almost all on the Yankees’ side. And it would be huge, considering the massive amount of money he’s owed, and constant concerns over if (when?) he gets hurt again (and again).

The reward could be huge also, but only if everything goes just right for the first few seasons of what’s left of Tulowitzki’s contract. Given New York’s other onerous deals, tacking on another just isn’t a smart approach.

General manager Brian Cashman appears to get this, having reinforced the likelihood, via Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, that the Yankees won’t be targeting any big-money players this offseason, whether in free agency or trade.

For those Yankees fans who want Tulowitzki in pinstripes, that sounds like bad news. Really, though, it’s just the opposite.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

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