Kuzul

If the trade deadline seemed quieter than in years past, it’s because it was. Only 61 players, not including a few players-to-be-named-later and some draft picks, were traded in the month of July compared to 100 in 2012 and 87 in 2011. 

A shallow trade market for hitters complicated things, as well as high asking prices from non-contenders and several teams on the cusp of playoff contention not yet ready to give up. Some non-moves were questionable—I put together a list of my top eight yesterday—and we’re still trying to gather all the answers as to why the lack of trade activity. 

For now, here are four things that we can take away from this year’s trade deadline.

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Of the names we’re hearing that are very likely available on the trade market, there’s not much to get excited about. At least not in terms of a player who can make an impact down the stretch as Marco Scutaro did with the San Francisco Giants in 2012. 

But there are several second basemen on non-contending teams, or teams on the cusp of being a non-contender, who could be difference-makers if acquired. Whether their team pulls the trigger on a trade has a lot to do with the offer on the table.

Considering how thin the market is and with a handful of teams, including the Oakland A’s, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, looking for middle infield upgrades, it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of the top five names on this list go in a pre-deadline deal. 

Here is a list of the top 10 potentially available middle infielders.

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Pitchers are fragile and should be handled with care, which is why you’ll see workloads decrease in the second half and very few pitching prospects called up to the big leagues for the stretch run. That doesn’t mean you should stop paying attention to what’s going on down in the minors.

Here are some pitchers, two from each level, that have either been really bad or really good as of late. 

Triple-A

Hot
LHP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
Season stats: 4.40 ERA, 104.1 IP, 113 H, 39 BB, 104 K 

While he’s no Taijuan Walker (top prospect, top-of-the-rotation potential), Paxton is quietly having a solid season in Triple-A and could even get a look in the majors before season’s end. The 24-year-old lefty has allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts (27 innings), including a five-hit shutout on July 8th.

A projected 2014 rotation of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and either Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer or Paxton filling the last two spots could help elevate the M’s back to the top of the division. 

Cold
LHP Andy Oliver, Pittsburgh Pirates
Season stats: 3.96 ERA, 100 IP, 77 H, 91 BB, 107 K 

Acquired from Detroit in the offseason, the Pirates were hoping that Oliver could decrease a walk rate the had gotten progressively worse since his first pro season in 2010. It continues to get worse (8.2 BB/9 in 2013; 6.7 BB/9 in 2012), however, and it’s starting to look less likely that his major league-caliber arm will ever translate into the 25-year-old becoming a productive major league pitcher.

Oliver may have reached a low point in his season when he was removed after just 1.2 innings of his last start on July 18th after allowing eight earned runs on five hits and five walks. The Tigers had moved him to the bullpen in 2012. The Pirates could do the same before completely giving up on him. 

Double-A

Hot
RHP Keyvius Sampson, San Diego Padres
Season stats: 3.35 ERA, 96.2 IP, 80 H, 42 BB, 101 K (AAA/AA)

Sampson may not have been ready for Triple-A, where he struggled early in the season (8.03 ERA, 12.1 IP, 17 H, 12 BB, 7 K in four starts), but he’s showing that he’s more than capable of dominating at the Double-A level. 

The Padres have been aggressive with the 22-year-old, jumping him a level from Low-A to Double-A in 2012, where he finished the season with a 5.00 ERA. Slowing down his ascent and allowing him to continue at the level in 2013 has been beneficial, as he’s completely overmatched hitters in six of his last seven starts (four starts with zero earned runs; three starts with 10-plus strikeouts; four starts with only one or two hits allowed).

Cold
RHP Jason Adam, Kansas City Royals
Season stats: 6.14 ERA, 104 IP, 117 H, 42 BB, 91 K

He’s not in the same class as Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer, the Royals’ top two pitching prospects, but Adam was a solid prospect who appeared to have a future in the back of a big league rotation or at least in the bullpen. His 2013 season is proving that even that projection may have been a stretch. 

The 21-year-old has an ERA over 6.00 after allowing eight earned runs in 4.1 innings during his last start. He also allowed six earned runs on six hits and seven walks in his first start of the month to end a string of three consecutive quality starts.

High-A

Hot
LHP Henry Owens, Boston Red Sox
Season stats: 2.78 ERA, 97 IP, 62 H, 50 BB, 116 K

The Sox are stacked with top pitching prospects in the upper minors, including Double-A starters Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo. But Henry Owens also gives the organization a potential elite prospect worth keeping an eye on down in the lower minors. 

With 11 no-hit innings over his last two starts, the 6’6″ lefty is doing what he can to earn a promotion to join his fellow top prospects in Double-A. His walk totals (50 BB in 97 IP) show that he still has a ways to go, but his stuff is probably too advanced for the current level and he might be ready for a new challenge before the end of the season. 

Cold
RHP Parker Markel, Tampa Bay Rays
Season stats: 6.37 ERA, 82 IP, 99 H, 35 BB, 71 K

A former 39th-round pick, Markel worked his way onto the prospect radar after a solid Low-A debut in 2012 (3.53 ERA, 120 IP, 117 H, 34 BB, 96 K). His first taste of High-A ball, however, has not been so kind to the 22-year-old. 

After one of his best starts of the season on June 29th (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, BB, 10 K), the 6’4″ right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 10.1 innings. A move to the bullpen was a possibility for the future. That possibility could become a reality sooner than later.

Low-A

Hot
RHP C.J. Edwards, Texas Rangers (traded to Cubs on 7/22)
Season stats: 1.83 ERA, 93.1 IP, 62 H, 34 BB, 122 K

If the name sounds familiar, it’s because Edwards was just traded to the Cubs in the deal for Matt Garza. The names of the other players heading to Chicago—Mike Olt and Justin Grimm—are more notable because they’re top prospects who have already played in the majors. But it’s Edwards who could end up being the prize of the deal. 

The 21-year-old, who was drafted in the 48th round by Texas in 2011, has a 1.68 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9 and only 94 hits allowed in 160.1 innings between three low minor league levels as a pro. Over his last eight starts in the Texas organization with Low-A Hickory, Edwards allowed just five earned runs in 41 innings with 15 walks and 63 strikeouts. He’ll begin his Cubs career with High-A Daytona. 

Cold
RHP Parker Bridwell, Baltimore Orioles
Season stats: 5.55 ERA, 95.2 IP, 95 H, 45 BB, 100 K

The No. 7-ranked prospect in the organization entering the 2011 season, according to Baseball Prospectus, Bridwell has fallen backward with his inability to succeed at the Low-A level. 

With over 230 innings of experience at the level and an ERA near 6.00 over that span, the 21-year-old could be running out of time to prove he can move up the ladder in the organization. He’s appeared close at times, but he cannot string together enough strong outings to think he’s turned a corner. 

After back-to-back brilliant starts in mid-June (14.2 IP, ER, 10 H, BB, 17 K), he allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings in his next outing. His next start was good (5 IP, ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K). And then he gave up eight earned runs in 4.2 innings his next time out. Then he was good again (6 IP, 0 ER, H, 5 BB, 6 K). Then bad again (4.2 IP, 6 ER). 

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In reality, it only takes one team to overvalue, and, thus, overpay for a player on the trade market. But there’s always a group of players that’s viewed as having a certain value based on certain numbers, reputation and trade-market depth.  

For those reasons, certain players will be overrated, and some team will be taking a risk by acquiring them, even at fair market value.  

Unless the price somehow goes way down in the next 12 days, here are five overrated players whom your team should avoid acquiring before the trade deadline.

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There are several teams on the cusp of falling out of playoff contention, which is always fun as it opens up the potential for even more trade rumors.

Seven teams—the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox—are currently more than 10 games back of a playoff spot, a very tough spot from which to bounce back. More could join them soon in the land of non-contenders. 

Teams like the Blue Jays (43-45, lost nine of last 14), Giants (40-48, lost 12 of their last 14), Padres (40-50, 10 consecutive losses), Rockies (43-47, lost 14 of their last 20) and Royals (42-44, lost 34 of their last 59) will need to make a decision of whether they are buyers or sellers in the next few weeks. If they play any worse than they have lately, veteran players from those teams could be shopped to contenders before the trade deadline.

Here are seven of the more interesting names that could be part of your daily Hot Stove news in the near future.

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Before a team pulls the trigger on a July trade, it’ll likely have revisited several trades from past years in order remind itself of why it would trade a productive veteran for an unproven minor leaguer or vice versa.

No general manager wants to be the one who makes what appears to be a relatively insignificant trade that turns out producing a terrific player for the other team. Last July, the Mariners were short on outfield depth and deep in power relievers so a deal to send right-hander Steve Delabar to the Blue Jays for Eric Thames appeared to make plenty of sense, right?

Thames, a left-handed hitting corner outfielder had a fairly productive rookie season in 2011 with a .262 batting average and 12 homers in just 95 games. But he had fallen out of favor in Toronto after struggling with a .652 OPS in 46 games in 2012.

Delabar, a 29-year-old journeyman who throws his fastball in the mid-90s, had a 4.17 ERA with excellent peripherals (36.2 IP, 23 H, 11 BB, 46 K). With several hard-throwing right-handers in the system, including Tom Wilhelmsen, Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, Delabar apparently became expendable.

Nearly one year later, it looks as though Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos completely destroyed Jack Zduriencik in this deal. Thames was designated for assignment and later traded to Baltimore for a fringe minor leaguer last month. Delabar is having another stellar season (1.58 ERA, 12.8 K/9) and is one of five finalists for the last roster spot AL All-Star team.

Here’s a look back at eight trades from last July that were much more notable, at least at the time. 

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I’ll take a wild guess and say that about 98.32 percent of rumored trades between now and July 31 won’t happen. In fact, a large percentage of those probably weren’t even seriously discussed by the teams mentioned.

So while we were all seriously discussing how those players would fit on their new teams and speculating on which prospects were going to be part of the trade package, the general managers involved in the rumored deal were probably working on a deal that was completely under wraps and then surprised the heck out of everybody once it was announced. 

And despite being completely fooled year after year, those discussions among fellow baseball fans are what makes this one of the best times of the year to be a baseball fan.

You can’t predict baseball on or off the field. Expect the unexpected. Just don’t expect these four rumored trades to happen.     

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For all of you forward-thinking fantasy players, you’re probably way ahead of me in coming up with a list of players who’ve given you great value in the first half, but won’t come close to maintaining production for the remainder of the season. You’ll spend the next few weeks looking for the best trade before their value begins to dip too much.

If you need help identifying this year’s version of Asdrubal Cabrera (.286 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 20 2B, 34 BB in 1st half of 2012; .251 BA, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 15 2B, 18 BB in 2nd half of 2012), let me give you some suggestions.

Here are seven players you should consider trading before midseason. 

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Earlier today, I named seven players guaranteed to be traded by the July 31st deadline. Not surprisingly, all seven will be free agents after the season and play on teams that aren’t in playoff contention now and aren’t expected to be a month from now. 

On the flip side, there is an entire different group of players that might become available if their teams either fall out of the playoff race or fail to make a run to get back to within striking distance. Then there are the rebuilding teams, such as the Astros and Marlins, with valuable trade chips who are under team control for a few more seasons. Trading them could make sense if a particular organization feels that the return will help expedite the rebuilding process. 

Which teams will be left standing as playoff contenders in late July is still to be determined, but it’s likely that many of them will be asking about the availability of these six players in hopes of acquiring them for the stretch run and beyond. 

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Time may be running out on some veteran general managers who are reaching a critical point in what could end up as their last season on the job.

These situations could create a conflict of interest with the general managers, understandably, wanting to go all out to win now while the organization might not be willing to mortgage the future.   

In any case, here are two general managers who’ll likely need their team to turn things around in the second half or risk being out of work by October. And they probably won’t wait around and do nothing. Expect a very active trade deadline as they try to save their jobs. 

Ned Colletti
Los Angeles Dodgers
GM since 2006 season
Record: 625-574
Playoff Appearances: Three

The overall win-loss record indicates a successful tenure by Colletti, who took over for Paul DePodesta after he was fired by then-owner Frank McCourt just 20 months after hiring him. McCourt also fired Dan Evans shortly after purchasing the team in 2004, despite the 263-223 the team had under Evans’ watch over the previous three seasons.

So it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the new ownership group let Colletti go, despite the contract extension he reportedly signed last September. If the team falters during a season that started with rather large expectations, they’d have a pretty good excuse to make their own hire after the season.

Getting the go-ahead to increase payroll to an estimated $216,000—more than double the 2012 payroll of an estimated $105,000—was both a blessing and a curse for Colletti.

He was able to add several players with sizable salaries, starting with Hanley Ramirez last July, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez in August and Zack Greinke in December. With those additions, however, came some rather lofty expectations.

Attendance had dipped to 36,236 per game in 2011, but it jumped back to 41,040 in 2012 and a league-leading 43,074 this season. Why? Much of it has to do with new ownership showing dedication and a willingness to do whatever it takes to put the best team on the field. After all the Yasiel Puig hype dies down, fan interest could also dwindle if the team falls out of playoff contention.

Dayn Perry of CBSSports.com thinks the re-signing of Brandon League, who recently lost his closer’s job, to a three-year deal worth at least $22.5 million is Colletti‘s worst decision. There’s plenty of competition, though. Here are a few other of the Dodgers’ signings or trades that have been disastrous, to put it mildly. 

1. Jason Schmidt signed to three-year, $47 million deal. This one made my list of “Worst Free-Agent Signings Over the Last 10 Years.” Schmidt had a 6.02 ERA in 10 starts over an injury-plagued stint in Los Angeles.

2. Juan Pierre signed to five-year, $44 million deal. Pierre lasted only three years before being traded to the White Sox. He posted a .696 OPS as a Dodger.

3. Juan Uribe signed to three-year, $21 million deal. The Dodgers needed a third baseman and Uribe was coming off of a championship season with the Giants in which he had 24 homers and 85 runs batted in. As a Dodger, he’s posted a .601 OPS with nine homers in 191 games.

4. Carlos Santana traded to Indians for Casey Blake. At the time, Santana was a minor league prospect who had put up big numbers in the low minors. Blake was a veteran third baseman who stabilized the hot corner for the Dodgers, posting a .767 OPS until his career ended after the 2011 season. But there’s no mistaking who got the better end of this deal. Santana has posted an .816 OPS since entering the league in 2011. 

At the moment, the Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp extensions aren’t looking so good either, and the trades made during the last year have not worked out because Beckett, Crawford and Ramirez have not been able to stay healthy. Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly, both acquired by Colletti, have also had multiple stints on the disabled list. 

Injuries have played a major factor in the struggles of the 2013 team, but it’s also Colletti‘s job to make sure there is enough depth in the upper minors to alleviate that problem. That hasn’t been the case. 

Jack Zduriencik
Seattle Mariners
GM since 2009 season
Record: 318-398
Playoff Appearances: Zero

Having a really good farm system can only take you so far. Eventually, it has to translate to players who produce at the big league level, and Zduriencik and the Mariners were counting on that happening by now. It hasn’t happened.

The team is 30-38 and 8.5 games back of a playoff spot. Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero were sent to the minors. Justin Smoak probably deserved to join them, but he’s been on the disabled list. If not for Zduriencik‘s offseason acquisitions of Jason Bay, Raul Ibañez, Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse, and the re-signing of Hisashi Iwakuma, it actually could’ve been much worse.

Not all his acquisitions have been good, though.

During his tenure, he’s traded Cliff Lee, Doug Fister and Michael Morse, and none of the players acquired in those deals have made an impact in the majors. If Michael Pineda, who was traded for Montero before the 2012 season, comes back from a shoulder injury to help the Yankees in the second half, that trade could appear lopsided, as well.  

His signing of Chone Figgins (pictured) also cracked my list of the “The Worst Free-Agent Signings Over the Last 10 Years.”

A new crop of prospects—Nick Franklin, Mike Zunino—has arrived and others—Brad Miller, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker—will be in the majors shortly. Unfortunately, Zduriencik might not be around when they’re all on the major league roster at the same time. 

For that to be avoided, he’ll need the current group to make a run and at least stay within reach of a playoff spot late into the season. In order to do so, he’ll probably need ownership to approve a deal to acquire an impact player for some minor league talent.  

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