Kuzul

The news of the day in Dodgers Land was shaping up to be Matt Kemp’s activation from the disabled list for the team’s home opener against the division rival San Francisco Giants.

It didn’t take long for Yasiel Puig to overshadow that news, though. In fact, he made it completely irrelevant.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweeted that Puig thought he had to be at the stadium at 10 a.m. PT, but the team took the field for stretching exercises at 9:40 a.m. PT. By showing up late, the controversial outfielder was benched, handing over his place in the lineup to Kemp—despite earlier comments from manager Don Mattingly, who said he didn’t want to “throw him into the fire.”

Puig had successfully re-directed the focus to yet another one of his antics.

After the team’s two-game sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Australia on March 22-23, Mattingly openly questioned whether Puig was really injured after he pulled himself out of the game following his strikeout in the top of the ninth inning. 

Interestingly enough, Mattingly told reporters prior to the game that the 23-year-old outfielder “grabs something every time he takes a swing and misses.”

When asked about Puig postgame, Mattingly answered sarcastically, “Shoulder yesterday, back today, so I’m not sure if they’re going to get him tests or get him to the MRI Monday or a bone scan on Tuesday, maybe. I’m not quite sure what we’ll do. We may not do anything. I’m not sure.”

The following Tuesday, Mattingly held a team meeting to clear the air and allow the young superstar a chance to address his teammates and vice versa (via Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com).

“I asked them to please keep helping me,” Puig said. “Specifically with baserunning and hitting my cutoff man. I want them to help me with everything they can.”

Puig‘s veteran teammates and the Dodgers’ coaching staff undoubtedly have no problem helping him improve as a baseball player. It’s doubtful, though, that they want to be in charge of making sure he shows up on time, drives closer to the posted speed limit or keeps his weight in check during the offseason. 

The problem with Puig may be that he’s too talented for his own good. He does things like this too often…

When it comes down to it, the punishment that might ultimately humble him and turn him into the disciplined and mature ballplayer the Dodgers want him to be could also hurt their chances to win in 2014.

Benching him for a game is not enough. Big leaguers take occasional days off during the 162-game season. Benching Puig for more than a few games is not possible. He’ll be needed as a pinch hitter and will have a chance to become a hero once again. Game-winning pinch-hit homers will not likely result in a lesson being learned. 

How about sending him to the minors where Mattingly won’t be tempted to put him in the lineup and where he won’t be nearly as revered by Dodgers fans as when he’s on a major league baseball field? Now we’re getting somewhere.

For how long? Officially, it should be for an “unspecified amount of time.” In reality, it should be for however long the Dodgers feel is necessary for Puig to grow up.

And now that I’ve revealed the probable solution, it’s time for a reality check.

We all know that the Dodgers cannot afford to send one of the most talented players in the game to the minors. They’re already without ace Clayton Kershaw (back injury) for at least the next month. That’s enough adversity to try and overcome. They’ll be an inferior team without Puig in their lineup. 

In the 104 regular-season games Puig played in last season, the Dodgers were 66-38. Puig had a .319/.391/.534 slash line with 19 homers and 42 runs batted in. They were 26-32 without him in the lineup. 

The Dodgers’ impressive run after a poor start wasn’t all Puig‘s doing. But his arrival in the majors in early June provided the necessary spark for a lifeless team that finished the year as one of the best squads in the majors.

They’re not interested in finding out how much of a spark they’ll lose without him.

For at least this season, the Dodgers will continue to deal with “Puig being Puig” because they have no other choice. They want to bring a World Series title to Los Angeles, and it’s hard to see them doing that without Puig‘s bat in the lineup.

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During a rare season when the San Francisco Giants‘ starting rotation struggled as a whole, finishing with the seventh-highest ERA (4.37) in baseball in 2013, Buster Posey‘s decline in production went relatively unnoticed. 

Maybe it’s because Posey was still pretty good, posting an .821 OPS with 15 homers, 34 doubles and 72 RBIs in 148 games while ranking 20th in NL MVP voting. But as Barry Bloom of MLB.com pointed out, the bar has been set extremely high for Posey, and his manager knows it.

“I think it’s fair to say that Buster had a little bit of down year,” said Bruce Bochy, who has managed the team since. “Not a real bad year.”

In the same number of games and only 15 more plate appearances in 2012, Posey had a .957 OPS with 24 homers, 39 doubles and 102 RBIs. He also won the NL batting title and was nearly unstoppable down the stretch.

Over the final three months of that 2012 season, Posey posted an unbelievable .371/.448/.618 slash line. His team had a one-game division lead at the beginning of that stretch. Eighty-three games and 50 victories later, the Giants had won the NL West by eight games and never slowed down upon entering the playoffs, winning their second World Series championship in three years. 

So while the Giants’ starting rotation has been a stable force for years, ranking third (3.54), second (3.28) and sixth (3.73) in ERA from 2010-2012, respectively, a Buster Posey-led offense has been the difference-maker in taking the team to a championship-caliber level. 

The pitching staff was still great in 2011 when the team finished eight games behind first-place Arizona. But Posey had yet to heat up, posting a .756 OPS in 45 games when he sustained a season-ending leg injury during a home-plate collision. The Giants finished near the bottom of every important offensive category, including runs scored (29th in baseball). 

They finished as a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2010. But until Posey was called up from the minors in late May, they were a mediocre hitting team without much of an identity. As he did in 2012, the eventual NL Rookie of the Year, carried his team for the final three months of the regular season with a .913 OPS, 17 homers and 57 RBIs. 

At the beginning of that three-month span, the Giants were 40-37 and 5.5 out in the division. They went on to win 52 of their last 85 games and overtook the San Diego Padres late in the season. 

Noticing a trend? Posey is capable of carrying the Giants and making them a World Series contender. If last season’s pitching struggles weren’t a fluke and those continue into 2014, they’ll need him to return to his MVP-caliber form, or else, it could be another long season. 

If the 27 year-old’s Opening Day performance during the team’s come-from-behind 9-8 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks is any indication—Posey went 2-for-5 with a tie-breaking two-run homer in the top of the ninth inning—the Giants have a chance to form a new identity in 2014 that is much more focused on the team’s hitting prowess.

With a solid lineup full of veteran players who are capable of having big seasons, including Michael Morse, Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval, and an emerging star in first baseman Brandon Belt, who had a .915 OPS in the second half of 2013 and went 3-for-5 with a homer in his 2014 debut, the Giants have the potential to be a great offense. 

And it’s a good thing because it’s really hard to know what they’re going to get from Matt Cain, who had a down season in 2013, or Tim Lincecum, who went from Cy Young to bust to solid, yet unspectacular, all within the last few seasons, or Tim Hudson, who is returning from ankle surgery at age 38, or Ryan Vogelsong, who had a 5.73 ERA in 2013 and didn’t show any signs of turning things around this spring (19 IP, 19 ER, 33 H). 

Posey can’t do it by himself. But the other 24 guys on the roster can’t do it without another MVP-like performance from Posey.

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Just because the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper might not show up for another 10-20 years doesn’t mean that Major League Baseball is devoid of young players with superstar potential who are ready to take the stage as the “next big thing.”

But what is it that qualifies a player for this list? It’s quite simple, actually, but I still implore you to read though it:

1. The player cannot have completed a “full season” in MLB (classified by 400 or more at-bats or 150 innings for starting pitchers).
2. Each player must be under the age of 25 as of Opening Day 2014.
3. He must be expected to play at the MLB level during the 2014 season (whether all year long or as an in-season call-up).

Other than that, it comes down to my own projections and expectations for each player—based on minor league performance, early MLB returns and roster depth/needs at the MLB level.

Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez, Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig were among those who took the step into MLB stardom in 2013.

Here are six players, one from each division, who could do the same in 2014. 

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During the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ amazing 62-28 run to finish the 2013 regular season, it’s no surprise that the team’s top two starting pitchers—Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu—completely dominated. 

The eventual Cy Young award winner, Kershaw went 11-4 with a 1.61 ERA in 17 starts while holding opposing hitters to a .503 OPS. Greinke went 12-2 in 19 starts while holding opposing hitters to a .589 OPS.

No. 3 starter Hyun-jin Ryu, who finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig and Shelby Miller, was also very good, as you can imagine. The 26-year-old lefty won eight of his 13 decisions while posting a 3.04 ERA in his 16 starts during that stretch. 

What might be a surprise, though, is how much production the Dodgers got out of the last two spots in the rotation and the pitchers that gave it to them. And if you weren’t paying close enough attention, you may be surprised to know that three-time All-Star Josh Beckett did not make one start during the team’s run. 

It was Ricky Nolasco, Chris Capuano and Edinson Volquez who carried the load at the back of the rotation, while Beckett and Chad Billingsley watched from the sidelines with injuries that ended their respective seasons well before the Dodgers had gotten their act together. 

After being acquired from the Miami Marlins in early July, Nolasco proceeded to go on what was likely his best streak of pitching ever. In his first 12 starts as a Dodger, he went 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA before struggling badly in his last three starts. 

Capuano may have been the weak link, posting a 4.29 ERA in 12 starts from June 23 through August 31 and winning only two games. But he kept his team in the game and gave them a chance to win in a majority of his starts, resulting in nine team victories. 

And while the division had already been wrapped by the time he was inserted into the rotation, Volquez gave the Dodgers four solid starts in September after he had been signed off the scrap heap following his release from the San Diego Padres. 

So with Capuano, Nolasco and Volquez all signing free-agent deals elsewhere this offseason, the Dodgers will turn to Dan Haren, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal to fill one spot, and, if healthy, Beckett, who would step into the final spot. 

The 33-year-old Beckett was acquired in the blockbuster deal with the Boston Red Sox in August 2012, although he was more of a throw-in to a deal that included hitting star Adrian Gonzalez.

To acquire the big prize in Gonzalez, the Dodgers had to take on the disappointing Carl Crawford and his massive contract and Beckett, who was still owed well over $30 million and struggling to the tune of a 5.23 ERA in 21 starts. 

Still, his strong finish after the trade (2.93 ERA, 43 IP, 43 H, 14 BB, 38 K in seven starts) gave the Dodgers hope that they’d get a strong return on his $15.75 million salary for 2013.

That wasn’t the case, however, as he was knocked around, allowing two homers in four of his first five starts and posting an overall 5.19 ERA by the time he was placed on the disabled list with a strained groin after this eighth start of the season. 

A much bigger issue had also surfaced, however, as Beckett was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, which had been causing numbness in his pitching hand. He underwent surgery in July to remove his top rib to relieve pressure on a compressed nerve, leaving his status for 2014 in doubt. 

While the Dodgers’ reported pursuit of Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka this offseason indicated that they weren’t too interested in relying on Beckett to come back healthy and productive—the addition of Tanaka would’ve likely pushed Beckett out of the starting rotation mix altogether—they opted to sign Paul Maholm as a relatively inexpensive backup plan, keeping the door open for the former Marlins and Red Sox ace to win a rotation spot. 

The addition of Haren should help, especially if the Dodgers get the second-half-of-2013 version of him (3.52 ERA), as opposed to the one who struggled mightily to start his Washington Nationals career (6.15 ERA in first 15 starts of 2013). But it’s Beckett who could prove to be the X-factor in this Dodgers team living up to expectations and dominating throughout the 2014 season.

If his first start of the spring was any indication—he allowed just one ground-ball single over two shutout innings while striking out three and showing strong command of his fastball and breaking pitches—he’s well on his way to playing a key role in the Dodgers’ season. 

Beckett believes that his injury led to some bad habits, including a drop in his arm slot over the past couple of seasons. After studying video from his successful 2007-2009 seasons with the Red Sox, he picked up on the difference and is returning to his over-the-top delivery in 2014. 

“You certainly create some bad habits,” Beckett said. “I think I slowly started to creep down further and further, not knowing what the injury was.”

Those aforementioned 2007-2009 seasons, in case you’re wondering, resulted in a 49-23 record, 3.71 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 89 starts in a very tough AL East. The Sox made the playoffs in each of those seasons, and Beckett’s impact was great. 

On his way to winning the ALCS MVP in 2007, Beckett went 4-0 while allowing just four earned runs in 30 innings pitched with two walks and 35 strikeouts over four playoff starts as the Sox won the World Series for the second time in four seasons.

He wasn’t nearly as effective in the 2008 and 2009 playoffs, although his reputation from winning the World Series MVP in 2003 while with the Florida Marlins and his brilliant performance in 2007 had already been earned. 

Beckett is entering his age-34 season, so it’s difficult to expect a similar performance from his ages 27-29 seasons.

But a return to health and better command combined with his big-game experience and what still appears to be a good enough fastball—it averaged 92 MPH in his eight starts last season, according to FanGraphs, which was 0.6 MPH higher than in 2012 and only 1.1 MPH less than in 2011, when he had one of his best seasons—could result in the Dodgers having one of the best No. 5 starters in baseball, which could separate them from the pack much sooner than in 2013.

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One of the more intriguing position battles of the spring is taking place in St. Louis Cardinals camp where Joe Kelly, who went 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 15 starts last season, is trying to hold off talented 22-year-old rookie Carlos Martinez for the last spot in the starting rotation. 

If you’re wondering why the 25-year-old Kelly isn’t being guaranteed a spot after his successful rotation stint, keep in mind that Lance Lynn, who is 33-17 with a 3.88 ERA over the past two seasons, was also expected to be part of the battle for the last spot until soreness in Jaime Garcia’s surgically-repaired shoulder—the lefty is expected to start the season on the disabled list—appeared to have cleared a path for him. But even now, Lynn should probably be looking over his shoulder.

The Cardinals have one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, and this heated battle for a rotation spot is simply one of those “good problems” that talented and successful teams often come across.

Whoever loses this competition is still likely to fill a key role in the bullpen—Kelly has a 3.25 ERA with 14 walks and 49 strikeouts in 52.2 big league innings as a reliever; Martinez had a few rough outings in relief during the regular season but finished strong and became the team’s primary setup man for closer Trevor Rosenthal throughout the playoffs—though the rotation is where they are hoping to find themselves at the start of the season. 

Tale of the Tape

Joe Kelly 

While he is clearly the safe pick and was entrusted with four postseason starts last season, Kelly isn’t being anointed the No. 5 starter early in camp because of Martinez’s huge upside and what he is capable of doing if he proves that he’s ready to be a big league starter.

Even if the organization is leaning toward Kelly in the rotation and Martinez in the ‘pen, it doesn’t hurt to stretch Martinez out in camp and at least give him an opportunity to win the job.

There is a significant upside, however, in keeping Martinez in a relief role for at least another season, which should work in Kelly’s favor. While Kelly’s strikeout rate is drastically better out of the bullpen—he has a 5.3 K/9 in 178.1 big league innings as a starter and an 8.4 K/9 in 52.2 big league innings as a reliever—he’s not viewed as the type of lights-out eighth-inning setup man that Martinez can be.

As a starting pitcher, Kelly utilizes a sinking fastball that averaged 94.9 mph in 2013, according to FanGraphs, to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark (51.1 percent ground-ball rate; 8.9 percent homer/fly-ball rate).

The right-hander allowed four earned runs in two starts, three earned runs in two others and two earned runs or fewer in his 11 remaining starts. Kelly was the definition of a pitcher who gives his team a chance to win, which is all any team can really ask out of a back-of-the-rotation starter. 

One concern is that he won’t be able to repeat his 82.4 percent strand rate that was necessary because of a relatively high 1.333 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). If ground balls are finding holes in the infield at a much higher rate than in 2013, Kelly could find himself with an ERA that is well into the 4.00s. 

Although his first outing of the spring isn’t likely to have much of an influence on the competition, Kelly’s not off to a great start. He allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks in 1.2 innings pitched. He also struck out two hitters.

Carlos Martinez

If it’s clear that Martinez is the Cardinals’ best option to set up for Rosenthal, it will be difficult to break camp with him in the rotation. If he happens to win the job, though, Kelly, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness would be the leading candidates for the eighth-inning role, and the bridge to the ninth inning would likely appear a bit less stable. 

Jason Motte‘s return from Tommy John surgery could play a major factor, though, in reversing that perception. The former closer isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season, but he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that sometime in April is a “possibility.”

“Even if I’m throwing bullpens at the end of March and I’m firing balls in there that’s great but it’s still not the same as getting in a game with that intensity, that adrenaline,” Motte said. “So you don’t want to go straight from there to the big-league ballgame without facing hitters or doing anything back-to-back. April may be a possibility, I don’t know.”

If the Cards feel confident that the 31-year-old Motte, who posted a 2.75 ERA and saved 42 games in 2012, will be able to return to form and step into the role of primary setup man early in the season, they could feel much more comfortable with Martinez in the rotation to begin the season.

Of course, Martinez will still have to prove himself this spring. In his first start, he allowed two earned runs—Marlins first baseman Garrett Jones hit a two-run homer against him in the first inning—on two hits over three innings with no walks and two strikeouts. 

Prediction

By allowing Martinez to get his pitch count up in preparation for a starting role to begin the season, the Cards are setting themselves up to have a pretty good backup plan in place should they need another starting pitcher within the first month or two of the season. They also ensure that their bullpen is in the best possible shape with a much-feared late-inning combination of Siegrist-to-Martinez-to-Rosenthal. 

A healthy and effective Motte returning by early May, combined with a struggling Kelly could result in the team moving Martinez into the rotation then. For now, there is no need to go away from the safe decisions of Kelly as the No. 5 starter and Martinez to the ‘pen. 

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The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t necessarily have to trade either one of their two young shortstops currently battling for the starting job. 

Both Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings, the two talented players involved in the aforementioned battle, have minor league options and could be sent to Triple-A to start the season. They might even benefit from the experience. 

And for a playoff hopeful like the D’backs, it could be extremely valuable to have a strong option waiting in the wings in case the big league starter struggles or gets injured.

But young and controllable big league-ready shortstops like Gregorius and Owings, who have the potential to be very good offensively and defensively, are at a premium around the league and it’s rare that an organization has the shortstop depth to even consider trading one. 

This is why the D’backs, who have several good shortstop prospects throughout their farm system, could be open to moving one now, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently pointed out.

While Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers acknowledged that trade talks have been limited due to Stephen Drew’s presence on the free-agent market, he would trade one of his shortstops in the “right deal” and mentioned a “top-notch catching prospect” and upper level pitching as potential returns.

Here are four teams that might target either Gregorius or Owings in a deal this spring and the trade packages it could take to get a deal done.

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With starting pitcher Homer Bailey officially off the 2014-2015 free-agent board after agreeing to a long-term contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds, the pressure could be rising for the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers to get deals done with their own free agent-to-be front-line starters. 

Red Sox ace Jon Lester and Tigers co-ace Max Scherzer, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, were already on track to be the cream of the crop when it comes to free-agent starting pitchers next offseason. Bailey had a decent chance to join them if he could duplicate his numbers from the previous two seasons.

But after the Reds guaranteed the 27-year-old Bailey (pictured) $105 million over the next six seasons—a total he wouldn’t likely have reached had he struggled on the mound or battled injuries during the upcoming season—his 2014 performance is now highly unlikely to have a negative effect on the market value of Lester or Scherzer.

If anything, the agents for each pitcher would have an even stronger argument should their client have a better season than Bailey, who hasn’t been quite as dominant as Scherzer over the past couple of seasons… 

…and can’t come close to matching Lester’s much longer track record of success. 

So while Bailey is a year younger than Scherzer and two years younger than Lester, that may have been his agent’s lone argument as to why his client’s contract should be comparable to either.

Barring a drastic decline from Lester—who Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald figures could ask for at least $20 million per season on his next contract—or Scherzer in 2014, their respective agents should be able to point to Bailey’s deal and negotiate an even better one.

This is bad news for their respective teams, who aren’t likely to view the compensation draft pick gained in June 2015, should either pitcher sign elsewhere, as much of a consolation prize considering how big of a hole either departure would create.

Had Bailey and the Reds been unable to reach an agreement, things could’ve been more favorable for the Red Sox and Tigers in their quests to sign Lester and Scherzer.

A subpar performance from Bailey in 2014 and there would be no $105 million deal set as the starting point in negotiations. A third consecutive strong season from Bailey would mean Lester and Scherzer (pictured) would have another established front-line starting pitcher to compete with on the free-agent market and their bargaining power could decrease as a result.

With this in mind, they could’ve been more open to signing a contract extension with their current team prior to the start of free agency. 

As things stand, however, the sense of urgency from the Lester/Scherzer camps to get a long-term contract done prior to next offseason has likely decreased. Next year’s free-agent market, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out, keeps getting worse with Clayton Kershaw also removed from the list after he agreed to a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers last month.

The Red Sox and Tigers must now be the aggressors if talks are going to heat up and they must be willing to go well beyond what Bailey just received from the Reds. 

By allowing Lester and Scherzer to become free agents next November, the Red Sox and Tigers will risk the price rising even higher following a typical season from either pitcher and the bidding war likely to ensue with just two or three front-line starting pitchers available—Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson, another long-term extension candidate, would likely be third on the list. 

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From the beginning of the MLB offseason, Nelson Cruz seemed like a very good fit for the Baltimore Orioles, with their interest in Cruz reported early on. They weren’t alone, however.

Several teams seeking a power-hitting outfielder showed interest in the two-time All-Star, which is why his reported asking price of four years and $75 million, per Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, didn’t seem too outlandish, despite his 50-game late-season suspension in connection with the Biogenesis scandal. After all, Jhonny Peralta, suspended for the same reason as Cruz, received a four-year, $53 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals in late November.

Surprisingly, that price wasn’t anywhere close to what any team was willing to pay the 33-year-old Cruz.

As was the case when starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez fell into their laps earlier in the week on a free-agent deal much lower than what had been anticipated—Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported in early January that Jimenez sought a multiyear deal for more than $14 million annually; he signed a four-year, $50 million deal with Baltimore—the Orioles’ patience paid off.

Cruz agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal, as reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes and Jayson Stark of ESPN Saturday.

It was only 10 days ago that I handed the O’s a “D” grade on their offseason, citing a lack of aggressiveness that would make it difficult to stay on pace in a very tough AL East. But with the additions of Jimenez and Cruz at those discounted rates, that grade has jumped to a “B,” with the team’s trade of closer Jim Johnson and subsequent failure to bring in a reliable late-inning reliever as the only concern.

Until the deal was struck with Jimenez, the team’s uneventful offseason was a concern for Orioles players, as well. All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that those concerns were eased after the Jimenez deal was announced. 

“It was a tough winter,” said Hardy. “There were times you questioned where this organization is going. It showed all of us that they were willing to spend some money and assures us that we’re trying to get better. That was a good sign. It definitely sends a message to us. And it makes us better.”

Adding Cruz only adds to that assurance and should make for a very confident Orioles clubhouse heading into the season.

The Orioles not only get Cruz at a very team-friendly $8 million salary for 2014—he can also earn an additional $750,000 in incentives—the concerns over his age and poor defense are minimized because it’s only a one-year commitment and they’ll likely be able to give him most of his at-bats at the designated hitter spot.

Cruz’s most valuable skill, his power, can also be maximized by playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Camden Yards—he has a .333 batting average (27-for-81) with two homers and six doubles in 21 career games there—and 10 games at Fenway Park, where he has a career 1.163 OPS and four homers in 18 games.

While he hasn’t had great success in the ballparks of the other three division rivals, the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, all are particularly favorable to home run hitters.

Hitting in the middle of an already very powerful Orioles lineup—the team led the majors with 212 homers in 2013; the next closest team had 188—Cruz has a chance to put up the kind of numbers that would make him a very attractive option on the free-agent market next offseason.

The right-handed-hitting slugger should be highly motivated after an offseason in which he left several million dollars on the table (he declined the Texas Rangers‘ qualifying offer of a 2014 contract that would have paid him $14.1 million) and had countless teams pass on the opportunity to sign him to a multiyear deal.

Cruz admitted to taking performance-enhancing drugs two offseasons ago in order to aid him in his recovery from a gastrointestinal infection that caused him to lose 40 pounds. If they were a non-factor in his 2013 success (.833 OPS, 27 HR, 18 2B in 109 games) and over the course of an impressive five-year run with the Rangers (.842 OPS, 27 HR, 29 2B, 81 RBI, 12 SB per season from 2009 to 2013), it’s not hard to imagine another big season that far exceeds the value of his contract.

Such a scenario would make the O’s and general manager Dan Duquette look like geniuses for waiting out a market that saw free-agent outfielders Marlon Byrd, Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth and David Murphy get two-year deals for $16 million, $10 million, $10.75 million and $12 million, respectively, and Chris Young get a one-year, $7.25 million deal from the New York Mets after a terrible season with the Oakland A’s.

A typical Nelson Cruz season will also have the teams that signed the aforementioned players rethinking their offseason strategy and possibly taking a more patient, Baltimore Orioles-like approach in the future.

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The mystery of Yasiel Puig was revealed after he burst onto the big league scene in early June and helped carry the Los Angeles Dodgers to an unbelievable run from worst to first in the NL West and all the way to the National League Championship Series. 

Puig‘s seven-year, $42 million deal in June 2012 almost seemed like an afterthought after all of the offseason buzz surrounding fellow Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal less than five months earlier. Two years later, it’s the 23-year-old Puig who has stolen all of the spotlight. 

Despite five months of Puig becoming an overnight sensation and a household name last year, it’s hard to know what to expect in 2014.

Baseball is a game of ups and downs. There are huge injury risks involved, and players rarely make it through a 162-game season at full health. In addition, constant adjustments need to be made as opponents discover weaknesses. 

While the game appeared almost too easy for Puig during his rookie season, it’s hard to know how he’ll play when he has to deal with minor injuries or how he’ll adjust to the strategies of opposing pitchers or whether he can stay out of trouble off the field. 

Here are 10 predictions for Puig‘s sophomore MLB season.

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As great as Yasiel  Puig was during his rookie season in 2013, there are plenty of reasons for the Los Angeles Dodgers to be concerned as he heads into his sophomore season. 

For one, it’s still unknown how well the 23-year-old will be able to adjust to teams who will be trying to exploit weaknesses he revealed last season. His relative anonymity made it difficult for opponents to game-plan around him once he made the jump from Double-A to the majors last June. By season’s end, though, it appeared that they had started to figure him out—he hit just .205 over his last 27 regular-season games and also struggled in the NLCS. 

A second arrest for reckless driving in December—his first was back in April while he was playing in Double-A—also exposes his lack of maturity. In a team statement issued shortly afterward, the Dodgers said that Puig‘s behavior “is a very serious issue” to them. 

And now, a 26-pound weight gain from the end of the regular season, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN.com, is yet another reason for manager Don Mattingly to question whether his young outfielder is ready to take the next step into major league superstardom. 

“We don’t feel it’s going to be a problem, but we’re paying attention to it, put it that way,” Mattingly told ESPN Los Angeles.

Mattingly might not make a big deal about it to the media, but he understands how important Puig is to the team’s success and the extremely high expectations that will follow his MVP-caliber performance from 2013.

At 251 pounds, Puig is only 16 pounds heavier than he was last spring when he reported to camp at a muscular 235 pounds. A young kid like Puig will probably bounce back in no time with some help from the trainers. But for such a young kid to unintentionally put on 25 pounds in such a short period of time—people aren’t raving about his linebacker-esque physique this time around—should be a big concern.

While several players with less-than-impressive physiques have had long and successful big league careers, Puig‘s lack of discipline and a possible lack of motivation could very well be an indication that he will struggle at times to stay at the top of his game throughout his career.

The ease at which his success came as a rookie could be making it difficult. As Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax recently pointed out to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times when discussing some of Puig‘s on-the-field issues, Puig is able to make up for mistakes because of his physical ability. 

“He’s young. The biggest thing is he’s not played against competition as good as he is. So you’re always able to have your physical ability make up for whatever else you do. “He’s learning. I’m sure it’s going to happen. He has too much talent.”

While Koufax was addressing Puig‘s theatrics on the field, his comments could easily be redirected to Puig‘s offseason and why he wasn’t motivated to keep his weight in check.  

Is it a case of too much success too early? At this time next year or maybe even a few years down the road, will we be discussing how Puig has learned from his mistakes and is now in the best shape of his career after slacking off in the past?

As much as Dodgers fans don’t want to hear this, a really bad season could be the best thing for Puig and his career as opposed to one that might not be as good as last year but also isn’t a complete disaster.

For Puig to reach his full potential and become a player who is consistently great, he’ll need to work hard. For Puig to work hard, he needs to be motivated. For Puig to be motivated, he might need to be really bad at hitting a baseball after an offseason in which he spent driving recklessly—at least once—and gaining 26 pounds. 

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