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What Is Hanley Ramirez Worth in Upcoming Long-Term Deal?

Now that they’ve locked up ace Clayton Kershaw to a long-term deal, the Los Angeles Dodgers can focus their attention on keeping another star player in town for the next several years. 

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, negotiations for shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who can become a free agent after the 2014 season, are in the early stages but are ongoing.

As was the case with Kershaw, who signed a seven-year, $215 million contract extension a year before he was eligible to become a free agent, the Dodgers aren’t likely to get the discount they might have gotten had either player been further away from free agency.

If he does happen to reach free agency, Ramirez will be entering his age-31 season and should easily surpass the four-year, $53 million deal that Jhonny Peralta signed with the St. Louis Cardinals this offseason.

Like Ramirez, Peralta is an above-average hitting shortstop who might have to move to third base within the next few years because of his defensive limitations. But the comparisons end there. 

Considering that Peralta is entering his age-32 season, was suspended for 50 games late in the 2013 season due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and has never put up elite numbers, as Ramirez did early in his career (.906 OPS, 25 HR, 40 2B, 39 SB per season from 2006-2010) and once again during a 2013 season in which he only played 86 games due to injury (1.040 OPS, 20 HR, 25 2B, 10 SB), it’s fairly clear that Ramirez’s value is much, much greater. 

Ramirez’s agent, Adam Katz, could argue that his client deserves to be among the highest-paid shortstops in the game. OK, so he’s already there if you only factor in the annual salary. His $16 million salary for 2014 puts him in a three-way tie with Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki (pictured).

But in terms of the total value of the deal, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Katz uses, or is using, the last six years of Tulowitzki‘s current deal as a comparison and possibly a baseline for negotiations.

For Tulowitzki‘s age-30-to-35 seasons, which run from 2015 until the final year of his deal in 2020, he’s due to make a total of $118 million, including a $4 million buyout on a $15 million club option for 2021.  

If the Dodgers gave Ramirez that exact contract (six years, $118 million with a $15 million club option for a seventh year) for the same time period, it’s doubtful that anyone would blink an eye. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Ramirez and his camp asked for more. How about a six-year, $125 million deal with a $16 million club option for 2021? 

Here’s the argument for why it could be a mistake for the Dodgers to give him that kind of money over that length of time. 

It’s hard to ignore how well Ramirez played last season once he was healthy. But we also can’t forget about his decline over the previous two seasons (.742 OPS, 17 HR, 20 SB per season from 2011-2012) and how far his value had fallen by the time the Dodgers acquired him from the Marlins in July 2012 for pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough.

After struggling for most of 2011, Ramirez’s season was cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery. He played 157 games in 2012, although his production fell short of where it had been prior to the 2011 season. He also played 90 games at third base, which he had only ever played a handful of times early in his minor league career. The shoulder surgery and the position change both could’ve played major factors. 

If his strong comeback season in 2013 didn’t take so long to get going—he was limited to only four games over the first two months of the season due to thumb and hamstring injuries—he’d have a much stronger argument for those two factors contributing to his numbers falling off.

Instead, it’s hard to be completely convinced that Ramirez can still be the same player over a full season. It’s also fair to question his ability to stay healthy. Paying him to be the player he was from 2006-2010 in hopes that he’d repeat the performance in his early-to-mid-30’s might not be the best idea in the world. 

While the Dodgers are a team built to win now and their window of contention appears to be wide open for at least the next couple of seasons, there will be a few more options on the free-agent market next season who could come much cheaper. J.J. Hardy and Jed Lowrie will be the top shortstops available aside from Ramirez, while Asdrubal Cabrera could also be a popular name if he has a strong season.

And if the Dodgers would like to keep the big league path clear for top prospect Kyle Seager, who is likely to begin the 2014 season in High-A and could be knocking down the door to the majors by late 2015, they may not want to sign any shortstop to a long-term deal.

With that said, Ramirez’s value is high after his impressive half-season. It could be even higher if he can play 140-plus games and put up an .850-plus OPS with 25 homers and 20 stolen bases.

Barring a mediocre 2014, some team is very likely to pay him big money on a multi-year deal if he reaches free agency next offseason. The Dodgers will need to decide if they’re better off with or without him in the mix for 2015 and beyond and whether it’s worth adding another mega-contract to their payroll that will likely pay a player beyond his prime.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Best Potential Trade Packages, Landing Spots for Ike Davis

If only New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis could be the player he was in the second half of 2012 (.888 OPS, 20 HR in 75 games) over the course of a full season, he likely wouldn’t be on the trade block this offseason. And if he were, teams would be much more willing to match general manager Sandy Alderson’s asking price for the 26-year-old.

While Alderson has indicated to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com that he’s fine with the current logjam at first base as the team heads into spring training, it’s still very likely he’d prefer to send Davis and his $3.5 million salary packing.

The move would make room for the much more consistent Lucas Duda (.852 OPS in 2011, .718 OPS in 2012, .767 OPS in 2013) in a possible platoon with Josh Satin, who had an .882 OPS in 82 at-bats against left-handed pitching last season. 

Kendrys Morales is the last viable first-base option on the free-agent market, although teams are shying away from his asking price and the draft pick it would cost any team that signs him. Trading for Davis could still be a much more preferable way to upgrade their lineup. 

Here are four teams who could still have interest in acquiring Davis and the potential trade piece it would take to land him. 

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MLB Trade Rumors: Most Logical Options for Players on the Block

Trade rumors may have died down and teams are gearing up for the start of spring training, which is approaching quickly. But that doesn’t mean that trade talks aren’t happening between teams. Things do tend to happen in baseball when you least expect it. 

Last offseason’s seven-player trade between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves involving Justin Upton, Martin Prado and Chris Johnson didn’t take place until January 24.

Jed Lowrie was traded from the Houston Astros to the Oakland A’s in a five-player deal on February 4.

John Jaso and Michael Morse were traded in less significant deals on January 16. Mike Carp and Conor Gillaspie were acquired by the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, respectively, during the second half of February.

Here are four players who have reportedly been on the trade block at one time or another this offseason and the logical landing spots for them in a deal. 

 

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The 10 Most Undervalued Moves of the 2014 Offseason So Far

When the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves pulled off a seven-player deal involving Justin Upton and Martin Prado last January, Chris Johnson was barely worth a mention in the write-ups that followed. He wasn’t quite a “throw-in,” but he wasn’t expected to play a major role with the Braves as Juan Francisco’s platoon partner at third base. 

The Diamondbacks simply had no room for him with Prado in the mix, so it was a no-brainer to include him in the trade. Little did they know he’d be just as big a reason why the deal could ultimately weigh heavily in the Braves’ favor. 

By early June, Francisco had been traded, and it was obvious that Johnson was going to be an integral part of the team’s success. He finished the season with a .321 batting average, good for second in the National League, to go along with 12 homers, 34 doubles and 68 runs batted in.

Johnson’s acquisition as a secondary piece in that blockbuster trade was one of several offseason moves that were extremely undervalued at the time.

Marlon Byrd and Scott Kazmir each had terrific seasons after signing minor league deals. Jason Grilli, with no closing experience in parts of 10 big league seasons, was re-signed to a two-year, $6.75 million deal by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was an All-Star closer in 2013 and a huge part of the team’s success.

Sometimes, it’s the seemingly little things that help win games. Sometimes, those little things occur in the offseason.

Here are 10 of the most undervalued moves of this offseason.  

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Injury Updates, 2014 Fantasy Impact for MLB’s Top Rehabbing Players

Professional athletes almost always think they can heal from an injury quicker than what a doctor might initially suggest. And they’re usually wrong, even if they are allowed to return to game action sooner than anticipated on occasion. Unfortunately, that can sometimes lead to the player aggravating an injury or just putting up mediocre numbers because they’re not fully healthy.

So we should all take players’ own personal health update with a grain of salt, especially in the offseason when they have a longer period of time to recover from an injury. It’s normal for a player who will be less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery on Opening Day—recovery time is typically 12-18 months, but normally closer to 18 months and sometimes longer—to proclaim that he is way ahead of schedule and will undoubtedly be ready for the start of the season. 

Several months and multiple injury updates later, that pitcher is still trying to work his way back to making rehab starts after a second setback in his recovery. 

We’re getting closer to the point in the offseason, however, where timetables for a rehabbing player’s return can be taken more seriously. Workouts are being ramped up with the opening of spring training approaching and teams will need to get a better idea of whom they can count on.

And so will fantasy baseball owners. Here’s an update on eight rehabbing players who can make a fantasy impact in 2014.

 

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How A-Rod’s 162-Game Ban Impacts Yankees 2014 Roster, Payroll, Offseason Plan

Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez‘s 211-game suspension was reduced to 162 games today as a result of his appeal, as was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports added that he also wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason should the Yankees advance beyond the regular season. 

While Rodriguez doesn’t appear to be giving up just yet—his statement on his Facebook page says he will take his fight to federal court—the Yankees can be all but certain that their 2014-15 season will be “A-Rod free” and they can plan accordingly. 

That plan could still go one of at least two ways. With the money saved—Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that they will save $27.5 million on luxury tax payroll, although they would still be assessed an estimated $3.16 million because a full MLB year counts as 183 days—the Yankees could either choose to stay under the luxury tax threshold or they can go all out and continue their spending spree with an eye on putting the best possible team on the field in 2014. 

In order to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million, which the Yankees believe could save them as much as $100 million over the next two seasons, according to the New York PostESPN reported that the Yankees’ luxury tax bill for 2013 was $28 million—they may have to get creative in order to fill several remaining holes on their roster. 

The New York Post‘s “Yankees Payroll Tracker” currently has them at just over $151 million in guaranteed contracts while noting that teams are usually charged an estimated $11 million for items such as insurance and pension, and another $5 million is likely to be budgeted for in-season minor league call-ups.

Not included in the total are projected salaries for the team’s five arbitration-eligible players—Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Shawn Kelley, Ivan Nova and David Robertson. According to MLBTradeRumors’ projected arbitration salaries, these five players would combine to make $16.2 million in 2014. 

In total, that’s an estimated $171 million in player salary—I added $3 million for players who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration. The aforementioned $16 million takes that total to an estimated $187 million.

Good luck filling out a roster that still needs at least one starter, at least two relievers and another player who could help fill the void at third base.

General manager Brian Cashman did a terrific job of bringing in some bargain-rate veterans last season. If the Yankees do intend to stay under the $189 million tax threshold, he’ll have to do the same. Here are some free agents who he could target: 

Starting Pitchers 

After CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, the Yankees will have former top prospect Manny Bañuelos, who is returning from October 2012 Tommy John surgery, Vidal Nuno, Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren competing for the last two spots in the rotation. If just one of them can step up and make a solid contribution to the rotation, the Yankees will be in good shape. 

Counting on two of them, however, would be way too risky for a team hoping to stay in the playoff race for the entire season. But if they can get 15-20 decent starts from a veteran like Erik Bedard, Bruce Chen (pictured) or Freddy Garcia, without having to pay either more than $1 million, they’d have an even better chance of remaining in the playoff race throughout the 162-game season. 

Relievers

David Robertson could very well be capable of handling the closing duties in New York. But who fills his eighth inning role? Currently, Shawn Kelley is the leading candidate after he posted a 4.39 ERA with a 3.9 BB/9, 12.0 K/9 and 11 holds in 57 appearances last season. It really wouldn’t that much of a surprise if he could handle the job.

But the Yankees’ bullpen gets extremely thin after that with lefty veteran Matt Thornton the only other proven pitcher slated to hold a spot. If Cashman is bargain shopping on the free agent market, he could possibly pick up a former closer, such as David Aardsma, Frank Francisco or Brandon Lyon, to help bridge the gap to Robertson. Or maybe Roy Oswalt (pictured), who MLBTradeRumors reported would be open to a late-inning relief role in 2014, would take a $1 million deal for a chance to be the team’s seventh or eighth inning setup man.

Third Basemen

Not even Mark Reynolds, a strikeout-prone slugger who isn’t a great defender at the hot corner, is likely to fit into this shoestring budget. Michael Young might take a $1 million deal knowing that he’ll have a shot at some semi-regular playing time. But I’m guessing he can at least double that amount on the free-agent market.

So unless they think someone like Yuniesky Betancourt or Alex Gonzalez are better options than Kelly Johnson and Eduardo Nuñez, it’s likely that they won’t go the free-agent route.

One “outside-the-box” trade option would be Conor Gillaspie of the Chicago White Sox, who will have to hold off newly acquired Matt Davidson if he’s going to have a spot on the 25-man roster. In 345 at-bats against right-handed pitching in 2013, the 26-year-old posted a .738 OPS with 12 homers and 13 doubles.

With Davidson expected to take over at some point in 2014, if not right away, the White Sox could be open to moving Gillaspie now.

 

A resulting 25-man roster with a sub-$189 million payroll for 2014 could look something like this …

Starting Lineup
1
 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2 Derek Jeter, SS
3 Carlos Beltran, RF
4 Mark Teixeira, 1B
5 Brian McCann, C
Alfonso Soriano, DH
7 Brett Gardner, LF
8 Conor Gillaspie/Eduardo Nuñez, 3B
9 Brian Roberts/Kelly Johnson, 2B

Bench
Francisco Cervelli, C
Brendan Ryan, IF
Ichiro Suzuki, OF

Starting Rotation
1 CC Sabathia, LHP
2 Hiroki KurodaRHP
3 Ivan Nova, RHP
4 Bruce Chen, LHP
5 Michael Pineda, RHP

Bullpen
CL David Robertson, RHP
SU Shawn Kelley, RHP
SU Roy Oswalt, RHP
MID Frank Francisco, RHP
MID Matt Thornton, LHP
MID David Phelps, RHP
LR Adam Warren, RHP

 

Or in the case that the Yankees, who are baseball’s most valuable enterprise at a worth of $3.3 billion, according to Bloomberg.com, don’t really care about saving a measly $100 million in luxury taxes and look to once again position themselves as a World Series contender in 2014, here’s the potential result …

  • Yankees sign Ubaldo Jimenez to three-year, $48 million contract.
  • Yankees sign Grant Balfour to two-year, $14 million contract.
  • Yankees sign Francisco Rodriguez to one-year, $3 million contract.
  • Yankees sign Oliver Perez to two-year, $5 million contract. 
  • Yankees sign Masahiro Tanaka to six-year, $114 million contract. 
  • Yankees trade for Conor Gillaspie (I kind of like this idea regardless of their situation and considering their limited options)

 

 

A resulting 25-man roster with a 2014 payroll that could end up around $230 million could look something like this …

Starting Lineup
1
 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2 Derek Jeter, SS
3 Carlos Beltran, RF
4 Mark Teixeira, 1B
5 Brian McCann, C
Alfonso Soriano, DH
7 Brett Gardner, LF
8 Conor Gillaspie/Eduardo Nuñez, 3B
9 Brian Roberts/Kelly Johnson, 2B

Bench
Francisco Cervelli, C
Brendan Ryan, IF
Ichiro Suzuki, OF

Starting Rotation
1 CC Sabathia, LHP
2 Masahiro TanakaRHP (pictured)
3 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
4 Hiroki KurodaRHP
5 Ivan Nova, RHP

Bullpen
CL Grant Balfour, RHP
SU David Robertson, RHP
SU Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
MID Oliver Perez, LHP
MID Shawn Kelley, RHP
MID Matt Thornton, LHP
LR David Phelps, RHP

 

It’s not my money, but a $100 million savings over a two-year period for a franchise that is valued at $3.3 billion doesn’t seem like it’s worth the difference in those two projected rosters.

The potential for a disastrous 2014-15 season, despite the three big-name veteran additions (Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann), that could occur with the sub-$189 million roster in place could have much greater long-term and “big picture” ramifications than a $100 million tax hit over a two-year period. 

So go ahead, Yankees. You should spend your money. As much fun as it is for non-Yankees fans to see a $189 million team suffer through a terrible season, the 2014-15 season could be equally and even more pleasing if the “evil empire,” with all of their high-priced superstars, could be taken down by a seemingly lesser opponent. 

The potential for a storybook ending would be much greater if the Yankees just continue to act like the Yankees. 

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Best Potential Trade Packages, Landing Spots for Homer Bailey

With little major league-ready depth after their projected five starters, the Cincinnati Reds aren’t currently in a position to shop Homer Bailey as he enters his last season before free agency. So it makes sense that the Reds were telling teams last month that he’s not available, as was reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

But with Bronson Arroyo still available in free agency, along with a few other very good starting pitchers, the possibility of trading the 27-year-old Bailey with the knowledge that they would replace him with another good option is still alive.

The Reds have discussed a long-term contract extension with Bailey’s representatives, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, though general manager Walt Jocketty acknowledged that the right-hander would be difficult to sign because of his recent success—Bailey has a 3.58 ERA with a 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over the past two seasons, including a few stretches of dominance. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports pointed out last month, an inability to sign Bailey long-term could change their thinking on a trade. 

If they do seriously consider a trade anytime in the near future, here are four potential suitors and what it might take for each team to acquire Bailey. 

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Projecting Which Offseason Signings Will Be Biggest Bargains in 2014

Marlon Byrd, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Francisco Liriano, Mike Napoli, Hyun-jin Ryu and Koji Uehara all signed free-agent deals last offseason. All seven made the general manager who signed them look like a genius because their performances far exceeded their contracts.

Which free-agent signees from this offseason will be part of the “Biggest Bargains” group for 2014? Here are my top seven picks. 

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Each MLB Team’s Best, Worst Offseason Move Thus Far

There are no perfect offseasons, though Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington came pretty close last offseason.

Signing Ryan Dempster (4.57 ERA) to a two-year deal may not have been the best use of $26.5 million of ownership’s money. And acquiring closer Joel Hanrahan backfired as he sustained a season-ending elbow surgery early in the season. Aside from those two moves, though, Cherington’s very busy offseason was nearly flawless. He acquired several players who were integral to the team’s World Series title. 

It’s also rare for a team not to have one bright spot in all of their offseason acquisitions, though the Los Angeles Angels and general manager Jerry Dipoto came dangerously close.

Free-agent acquisitions Joe Blanton, Sean Burnett and Josh Hamilton didn’t pan out in Year 1 of their respective deals—Burnett missed most of the season due to injury; Blanton and Hamilton had unproductive seasons on the field— and Tommy Hanson, whom they acquired in a trade with Atlanta, posted a 5.42 ERA and was non-tendered after the season. 

If not for minor league free agent Dane De La Rosa, who posted a 2.86 ERA in 75 relief appearances, it might qualify as one of the worst offseasons of all time.  

After two busy months of free-agent signings, trades and waiver-wire pickups, it’s time to take a look at each team and decide which was their best and worst move (or non-move).

 

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Finding the MLB Free Agency All-Value Team

There have been several free-agent signings thus far that, at least potentially, have a solid chance of becoming great values for their new teams.

The Blue Jays picked up catcher Dioner Navarro for two years and $8 million after he posted a .856 OPS with 13 homers in 89 games last season. Corey Hart signed a contract with Seattle that guarantees him only $6 million. If he bounces back from knee surgery and returns to the player who posted a .830 OPS between 2007 and 2012, the additional $13 million he could earn from incentives will still be a great bargain.

Joe Nathan signed a two-year, $20 million deal to fill a major void in the Tigers bullpen, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s $7 million per season deal with the Marlins after his impressive 2013 campaign could end up looking like a steal compared to Brian McCann’s five-year, $85 million deal with the Yankees. 

Teams still hoping to find a great free-agent value signing aren’t out of options just yet. While it has gotten extremely thin at certain positions, particularly at catcher, second base and third base, I’ve found a potential free-agent value still available for each position.

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