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Remaining Offseason To-Do Lists for Every MLB Team, Post-New Year Edition

Teams have been busy over the past two months, putting their offseason plans in place and trying to fill as many holes as possible. For many of those teams, however, there are still needs to address, and time is running out before it’s time to report to spring training. 

With the posting process for Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka now underway and expected to come to a conclusion over the next few weeks, there are still four available starting pitchers—Tanaka, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana—who will be penciled in to the front part of a big league rotation before the start of the season.

Nelson Cruz and Stephen Drew are the lone free-agent hitters who could make an impact on a lineup, while Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are the best remaining from what was initially a very deep group of relievers on the free-agent market.

Trades are also a possibility this time of year—the Atlanta Braves acquired Justin Upton last January; the Oakland A’s acquired Jed Lowrie in February. 

A lot can still happen, which is why baseball fans should still be paying attention between now and when actual baseball will be played again. 

Here is an updated look at the remaining “to-do” lists for each of the 30 teams.  

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6 Hidden Free-Agent Gems That Are Being Overlooked for 2014

The main focus of the MLB offseason will soon turn to Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka, who will be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, and free-agent starters Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, who are all still on the board.

While most interested teams have been waiting to see how the Tanaka situation unfolds, top free-agent hitters Nelson Cruz and Stephen Drew are also still available, along with closers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney.

Aside from those players, there aren’t many available on the free-agent market who are expected to make a significant impact on a big league roster. That doesn’t mean there aren’t those who could fill an integral role and help a team in some way, even if it’s at the back of the rotation or off of the bench.

In July, contending teams will be looking for these types of players, who can be had now at a likely bargain rate. 

Here are six such free agents who are still available. 

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Best Potential Trade Packages, Landing Spots for John Lackey

The Boston Red Sox might not want to trade John Lackey, given his strong 2013 season and his extremely team-friendly $500,000 club option for 2015. But, in all likelihood, they’ll want to clear up a crowded rotation situation before the start of the season, and there may not be a better time to trade the veteran right-hander. 

At two years and $15.75 million for the next two seasons—he’ll make $15.25 million in 2014; his $500,000 club option for 2015 took effect when he missed significant time due to elbow surgery between 2010-2014, according to Baseball Prospectus—Lackey is a great value for any team. That includes the Red Sox, who, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe pointed out in his weekend column, aren’t particularly motivated to deal him right now. 

That could change, though.

Freeing up $15.25 million of salary from the 2014 payroll while getting something of value in return for the 35-year-old, who posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 189.1 regular-season innings last season, is enough of a reason to at least listen on offers. 

Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reported during last month’s winter meetings that the Sox were gauging interest in their veteran starting pitchers. 

Here’s why Lackey might be the one to be traded. 

Jon Lester proved during last year’s playoffs that he was the staff ace and one of the more valuable players for the World Series champs. At $13 million, he’s a bargain for 2014, the last year of his current deal. The soon-to-be 30-year-old would likely net the Sox their biggest return in a trade, but they’re more likely to try and sign him to a contract extension. 

Jake Peavy, who is due $14.5 million in 2014 before becoming a free agent, is coming off of a solid season split between the Red Sox and White Sox. He’d certainly draw interest on the trade market. But at that salary and considering he’s only been able to make more than 27 starts in one season (2012) since 2007 due to a long list of injuries, teams aren’t likely to offer enough in return.

If the Sox were ever going to trade Clay Buchholz, it wouldn’t be after a season in which he only made 16 starts due to injury. While he did go 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and an impressive 6.2 H/9, teams aren’t going to offer the package of players they would had he been healthy the entire season. You don’t trade a potential staff ace when his value isn’t at its peak.

Ryan Dempster will be 37 in May, is due to make $13.25 million in 2014 and had a 4.57 ERA last season. That’s not a good combination for teams looking to add starting pitching on the trade market. The Sox would have to take on some of his remaining salary, and the return wouldn’t be great, anyways. 

Felix Doubront is a 26-year-old with four years of club control and a 4.36 ERA in 59 career starts. Moving him now isn’t a bad idea, although it’s likely that the Sox would rather trade Lackey over a young lefty who could potentially move to the bullpen if they needed to clear a spot for one of their top young prospects or even Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka, whom Cafardo thinks the Red Sox could make a run at.

Trading Lackey could make that a more likely scenario. Here’s a look at some potential suitors that can offer the best potential trade packages. 

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Biggest Winners and Losers of MLB’s Offseason Heading into 2014

It’s still too early to declare a team as a “winner” or “loser” at this point in the offseason. Because there’s still plenty of time left for them to make trades and several impact players still available on the free-agent market, the perception of how a team’s offseason has gone can change in a moment’s notice. 

A lot has happened, though, and there are teams that have certainly established themselves as having had a successful offseason and those who have either made enough questionable moves or non-moves to give their fanbase a reason to be disappointed. 

Here are four winners and four losers from the first two months of the offseason. 

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Would A.J. Burnett or Bronson Arroyo Be More Effective in AL East for Orioles?

It’s hard enough to find five good starting pitchers. But the high occurrence of injuries to pitchers in this day and age commonly forces teams to utilize at least eight or nine starting pitchers to get through a 162-game season.

As a result, certain characteristics have become extremely important when assembling a starting rotation. Without a good combination of consistency, durability and reliability, things can get ugly very quickly. 

And this is why pitchers like Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett, even as they enter their age-37 seasons, are so valuable to a pitching staff. You pretty much know what you’re going to get—30-plus starts, ERA in the mid-3.00s, 200 innings, etc.

Most importantly, their teams know that when they take the mound every fifth day, they will have given their teams a chance to win by the time they depart after six or seven innings. 

So that’s why a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who could already throw out a pretty good starting five on Opening Day (Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman), are looking to add one of the two free-agent starters.

According to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, the O’s are more interested in the stability that Arroyo or Burnett could bring to their rotation as opposed to the top three free-agent starters—Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana—who will be paid big money for what they can potentially do, despite having careers that have had extreme highs and lows. 

Which of Arroyo or Burnett would be more effective in Baltimore? Let’s take a closer look.

 

Arroyo’s average annual totals since 2004
W L ERA GS IP H BB K HR WHIP BB/9 K/9 QS QS%
13 11 4.10 33 207 209 53 135 29 1.267 2.3 5.9 20 61%

*Via Baseball-Reference 

 

Burnett’s average annual totals since 2004
W L ERA GS IP H BB K HR WHIP BB/9 K/9 QS QS%
12 10 4.03 29 183 171 70 174 19 1.313 3.4 8.6 17 58%

*Via Baseball-Reference 

 

The 10-year comparisons show two pitchers who have had similarly successful big league careers, with the most notable differences being Burnett’s much higher strikeout rate and Arroyo’s much higher home run totals. Burnett throws much harder, and Arroyo has pitched most of his career in a hitter-friendly ballpark, so that shouldn’t come as a big surprise. 

What this 10-year average doesn’t show is the consistency level that each pitcher has displayed. Aside from Burnett’s last two seasons with the New York Yankees, in which he posted an ERA over 5.00, and Arroyo’s 2011 season, in which he posted a 5.07 ERA with a league-leading 46 homers allowed, the overall numbers aren’t much different from year to year.

During the last two seasons, however, Arroyo and Burnett have been in top form. 

  

Arroyo’s average annual totals from 2012-2013
W L ERA GS IP H BB K HR WHIP BB/9 K/9 QS QS%
13 11 3.76 32 202 204 34 126 29 1.181 1.5 5.6 20 64%

*Via Baseball-Reference 

 

Burnett’s average annual totals from 2012-2013
W L ERA GS IP H BB K HR WHIP BB/9 K/9 QS QS%
13 10 3.41 30 197 177 64 194 14 1.228 3.0 8.9 19 62%

*Via Baseball-Reference 

 

Arroyo has improved upon an already strong BB/9 rate, while Burnett has gotten particularly stingy at allowing the long ball. Both have become even more reliable, however, when it comes to quality starts (at least six innings pitched, no more than three earned runs allowed). 

Taking that a step further, Arroyo pitched at least seven innings in 14 of his 32 starts in 2013, while failing to complete six innings in only eight of his starts. He also allowed two earned runs or fewer in 17 starts, while allowing three or four earned runs in 10 starts and five earned runs or more only five times. 

Burnett (pictured) made it through seven innings in 15 of his 30 starts, while failing to complete six innings in 10 of those. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 starts, while allowing three or four earned runs five times and five earned runs or more in his other five starts. 

There were only seven occasions in their combined 62 starts in 2013—four for Arroyo and three for Burnett—when either of them left the game without giving their team a pretty good chance of winning the game.

It’s hard to get much more consistent than that. It’s hard to be more reliable than that.

So which is the better fit in Baltimore?

Both have been successful in the NL Central, but what about the AL East? Burnett, despite a rough ending to his Yankees career, had three very good seasons with Toronto and one with New York. Arroyo’s first two full seasons as a starting pitcher came with Boston

Arroyo has experience and a proven track record of success pitching in one of the most homer-friendly parks in the majors. The homer-friendly confines of Camden Yards shouldn’t faze him one bit.

Burnett doesn’t give up many homers. He only gave up 11 homers in 191 innings pitched last season. But he’s allowed 10 homers in 62.1 career innings at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while posting a 5.03 ERA. 

While that small sample size of struggles in Baltimore won’t scare the O’s away from Burnett, it could cause them to lean toward Arroyo. 

Arroyo, however, will require a two-year commitment, maybe even three, likely in the $7-10 million range, while Burnett, if he chooses to keep pitching, would likely settle for a one-year deal in the $10-15 million range. 

It’s a close call, and I don’t think the O’s would end up regretting the signing of either pitcher. But if I had to choose between, say, Arroyo at two years and $20 million, or Burnett at one year and $14 million, I’d go with Burnett. 

There’s a strong possibility that Gausman could be the ace of the 2015 staff and fellow pitching prospects Dylan Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright could all be ready for a full season in the majors. In addition, Tillman, Chen, Norris and Gonzalez would all still be under team control. Giving any free-agent pitcher more than one season seems unnecessary at this point. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Where Chris Perez Signing Puts Dodgers Among MLB’s Best Bullpens

The Los Angeles Dodgers proved in 2013 that they were a force to be reckoned with, winning 62 of their last 90 regular-season games and falling two wins short of their first World Series appearance since 1988. 

They’ll head into 2014 with one of the best rotations in the game, led by Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, and plenty of star power in the lineup. Yasiel Puig enters his first full big league season and a healthy Matt Kemp will be out to prove that he’s still one of the best players in the game. 

A bullpen with closer Kenley Jansen and youngsters Paco Rodriguez and Chris Withrow, who are each coming off of terrific rookie seasons, gave the team a solid foundation with a few more good arms who could arrive soon from down on the farm. Depth was far from strong, though. 

But three key free-agent signings in a span of 18 days—Brian Wilson agreed to re-sign on Dec. 5, J.P. Howell agreed to re-sign on Dec. 16 and Chris Perez agreed to a one-year deal earlier today that was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports—has the ‘pen in great shape. 

In fact, they have a chance to be the best group of relievers in club history. Yes, even better than the 2003 bullpen that featured a dominant closer, Eric Gagne, who was perfect in 55 save opportunities while posting a 1.20 ERA, 2.2 BB/9 and 15.0 K/9, and two other pitchers, Guillermo Mota and Paul Quantril, with sub-2.00 ERAs

Here’s a look at my current projection that can be found over at MLBDepthCharts.com.

CL Kenley Jansen, RHP: 53 Sv, 2.10 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 13.3 K/9 over last 2 seasons
SU Brian Wilson, RHP: 171 career Sv, 19.2 IP, ER, 12 H, 6 BB, 21 K w/ LAD in 2013
SU Chris Perez, RHP: 123 Sv, 3.19 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 since 2010
MID Paco Rodriguez, LHP: 20 holds, 2.32 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 10.4 K/9 in 2013
MID Brandon League, RHP: Prior to poor 2013: 59 sv, 3.38 ERA from 2008-12
MID LHP J.P. Howell, LHP: 2.03 ERA, held left-handed batters to .452 OPS
LR: Jamey Wright, RHP: 3.32 ERA over last three seasons

Trade Bait or Next in Line at Triple-A
Chris Withrow, RHP: 2.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 11.2 K/9 in 26 relief appearances in 2013

That’s a very well-rounded group with a good mix of experience, youth, power and attitude. How do they stack up against the rest of the league, though? I think they could be the best, and no worse than the top five.

Here’s a look at six other bullpens who you could make a pretty good case for being the best in the game. I’ve ranked them from sixth to first.

Be sure to make your case in the comments section and let me know where you think the Dodgers belong.

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Shin-Soo Choo and 10 Worst MLB Contracts of Last 10 Years

Back in April, I ranked the 10 worst MLB free-agent signings of the past decade, with a focus on two recent signings—Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton of the Los Angeles Angels—that were already in serious danger of joining them. 

While Pujols and Hamilton each have plenty of time to rebound and ensure they won’t crack any similar lists in the future, you can see how quickly a player can be hit with the “bust” label. Hamilton was only 20 games into his five-year, $125 million contract at the time of the article. 

So what will Shin-Soo Choothe newest $100 million man in the majors after agreeing to terms with the Texas Rangers on a seven-year, $130 million deal earlier Saturday, via Jon Heyman of CBS Sportsneed to do to avoid being lumped in with Alex Rodriguez and Chone Figgins and Barry Zito? 

Too late. According to Dan Szymborski of ESPN, his ZiPS projections place Choo‘s deal as the third worst in MLB history at the time of the signing behind Rodriguez’s second 10-year deal and Ryan Howard’s current five-year, $125 million deal.  

Looking at the 31-year-old Choo‘s “similar batters through (age) 30” comparison at Baseball-Reference.com, there isn’t too much to get excited about if you’re a Rangers fan hoping for a continued string of success throughout the course of his deal.

Two of the closest comparisons are outfielders Bernard Gilkey, who spent the majority of his 12-year career with the St. Louis Cardinals, and Rusty Greer, who played all nine of his big league seasons with the Rangers. 

Choo‘s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (2009-13)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.290 .392 .469 .861 97 176 39 4 21 83 88 146 21 8

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Gilkey‘s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (1993-97)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.289 .362 .464 .826 97 172 39 4 20 87 66 101 18 12

*Via Baseball-Reference

Greer’s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (1995-99)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.309 .393 .449 .883 104 185 39 4 21 101 85 90 6 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Eerily similar, right? The only difference is that neither was fortunate enough to land a payday anywhere close to Choo‘s, even by the standards of that era. If they had gotten big-money, long-term deals that took them past their mid-30s, there’s a chance those contracts could’ve given Jason Bay and Gary Matthews Jr. a run for worst contracts of all time for a free-agent outfielder. 

Gilkey‘s 162-game average after age 30 season (1998-2001)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.242 .326 .362 .689 44 95 21 1 9 48 47 85 6 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Greer’s 162-game average after age 30 season (2000-2002)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.290 .362 .438 .800 95 181 50 4 12 83 73 82 5 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Not only was Gilkey unproductive, for the most part, throughout the remainder of his career, he also had a tough time staying healthy with an average of only 87 games per season. He made over $15 million over the course of his last four seasons in the majors. Choo will make close to $19 million in each of the next seven.

While Greer continued to produce on the field, injuries limited him to only 73 games per season from age 31 until his retirement. Prior to the 2002 season, he was signed to a three-year, $21.8 million contract extension. He played in only 51 more games.

But is it really fair for any system to label Choo a likely bust already? Using Rodriguez, Howard and Werth as a starting point, here’s a look at some other seemingly risky investments and how they’ve turned out.

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Shin-Soo Choo vs. David Price: Best Player Still Available This Winter?

It’s time to put your general manager hat on and make a very important decision. Your team is in position to add one impact player prior to the 2014 season. You can either trade for Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price or sign free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Which would be the better choice?

Before you make your pick, here’s a closer look at each player, what it would take to acquire them and the potential impact they’d have on your ballclub. 

Shin Soo-Choo

The 31-year-old Choo, who posted an .885 OPS with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases for the Cincinnati Reds last season, is reportedly seeking a seven-year, $140 million contract, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted that the general belief is that whichever team goes to eight years will ultimately land him.

One of the best all-around players in the game—he is considered to be a plus-defender in a corner outfield spot and one of the best in the game at getting on base, to go along with a strong combination of speed and power—the left-handed hitting Choo is capable of hitting anywhere in the lineup and playing anywhere in the outfield. He led off and played center field for the Reds in 2013, although he might fit best in right field while hitting second or third in the lineup. 

It’s not out of the question for a player to remain healthy and productive through his ages 37-38 seasons, but the likelihood isn’t very strong. In giving Choo seven or eight years and somewhere between $140-$160 million, a team should be satisfied with three to five great seasons, a couple of so-so seasons and at least one bad one. 

That might sound like a terrible value, but that’s what it’ll cost to sign a player of Choo‘s caliber for the last few years of his prime.  

 

David Price

With a projected 2014 salary of $13.1 million through arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors, and a 2015 salary that will most likely be in the $16-$18 million range in his final year under club control, the financial cost of acquiring David Price is quite affordable for most big league teams.

The necessary package of players it will take to trade for him, however, is not. 

Teams without an elite prospect in their organization need not inquire on the 28-year-old left-hander. For those that do have at least one, realize that a willingness to include that elite prospect in the deal is imperative for the trade talks to go any further than the initial inquiring stage. 

For two years of one of the best starting pitchers in the game—Price has a career record of 71-39 with a 3.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 8.1 K/9 and a 67 percent quality start rate in 973 innings—the Rays are setting their sights high in terms of what they’ll need to receive in order to trade the former Cy Young award winner. 

In last offseason’s deal that sent pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals, the Rays received one elite prospect (outfielder Wil Myers), a good pitching prospect with a middle-of-the-rotation profile (Jake Odorizzi) and two other minor leaguers with some upside but not a great chance of becoming big league regulars. 

You’ll have to do much better than that to acquire Price. 

What Would You Do? 

Let’s assume that your team has a decent-sized payroll and signing Choo won’t completely handcuff you in your pursuit of other players in the future. But if Choo isn’t productive over the first 2-3 years of the deal, you’ll probably lose your job. 

Now, let’s say that your farm system is deep enough to where you could give up three of your top five prospects, including two that are considered among the top 50 in the game, and still not completely deplete it. But if Price doesn’t help lead your team deep into the playoffs and he walks as a free agent following the 2015 season, while at least one of the players you traded for him is putting up big numbers with his new team, you’ll probably lose your job. 

Now make your pick. What’s the better acquisition? 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Winter Meetings 2013: Analyzing All the Action, Hot Rumors of Day 2

Day two of the winter meeting got off to a bang as the rumored three-team deal between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels came together rather quickly and was a reality by early afternoon.

With one more day before the focus turns to the Rule 5 draft on Thursday, expect at least a few more big free agent signings and/or trades to happen over the next 24-30 hours or so.

Here’s all the latest from the rumor mill.  

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Winners and Losers of 3-Way Mark Trumbo Trade Between Angels, White Sox, D-Backs

In any trade, the ultimate goal is for each team involved to get a positive return on the deal. This normally isn’t the case, as it’s fairly easy to go back and decide which team “won” an actual trade. And some trades involve multiple teams, which makes it even more difficult to end up with a “win-win-win” situation. 

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers was involved in a pair of three-team trades last offseason, one of which (Heath Bell, Cliff Pennington to D-Backs; Chris Young to A’s; prospect Yordy Cabrera to Marlins) yielded fairly mediocre results all around and could be looked upon as a wash at this point.

The other, at least as of now, had a clear winner, as the Reds received an amazing season from Shin-Soo Choo. The D-Backs received a strong defensive shortstop, Didi Gregorius, who had a solid year at the plate as a rookie. But the verdict is still out on the 23-year-old, who will compete for the starting job with Chris Owings.

Neither trade was a complete failure for the D-Backs, as pitching prospect Trevor Bauer, who was sent to Cleveland in the deal, has taken a few steps backward in his progress and doesn’t appear as though he’ll make the D-Backs regret the trade any time soon. 

So Towers is back at it again, working with the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox to help fill needs for each of the three teams. 

The three-team trade, first reported by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, has slugger Mark Trumbo headed for the Diamondbacks, where he’ll fill their void for another middle-of-the-order power hitter, while the Angels receive two controllable starters in left-handers Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. The White Sox receive center fielder Adam Eaton, which could put the team in position to make another trade to free up space in a crowded outfield. 

Two players to be named later, one from the Angels and one from the White Sox, will head to the Diamondbacks in the deal. 

While it’s too early to definitively declare a winner in the deal, we sure can analyze it and give our first impressions of the deal for all teams and players involved.

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