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Identifying Biggest Buyers and Sellers at Upcoming MLB Winter Meetings

The most common thought of the week—I know because I’ve said it, wrote it, texted it and tweeted it myself—is how there won’t be much left for teams to do at next week’s winter meetings because everything has already happened.

That, of course, isn’t true. It just seems that way after 25 free agents signed major league contracts this week while eight trades were made involving 23 players, according to MLBDepthCharts.com’s Transaction Tracker

In reality, there is still plenty that could occur and several teams haven’t even made their first move yet. Others that have been busy aren’t anywhere near finished making over their roster. And in a setting where general managers can meet face-to-face with fellow general managers, free-agent players and their agents, things tend to happen at a much more rapid pace.  

That setting is Orlando, Florida, home of this year’s winter meetings. Beginning on Monday, December 9, all 30 organizations will be represented heavily by front-office personnel and anyone else involved in making key decisions. By Thursday, most will head out of town and several players will have changed teams. 

Here are five teams to keep an eye on, either because they’re likely to be one of the most active in pursuing impact talent and/or because they have impact talent to trade. 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (Buyer)

General manager Kevin Towers has yet to add any talent to his big league roster this offseason, but he did clear up some space in a crowded bullpen and freed up $5 million from his payroll when he traded Heath Bell to the Rays. And he could be gearing up to make a splash next week in Orlando.

With reports that Towers is shopping for a power bat—Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that they were in discussions with the A’s on a potential deal that would’ve landed them Yoenis Cespedes; Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wrote that they made a strong push for Carlos Beltran before he signed with the Yankees—and/or an ace starter, as was reported by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, it would be a surprise if the D’backs went home empty-handed. 

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Buyer/Seller)

The Dodgers have been quiet, making just two notable roster moves thus far. Bringing back veteran reliever Brian Wilson to set up for closer Kenley Jansen and Dan Haren to fill out the back of the rotation has cost the Dodgers a total of $20 million (each is guaranteed $10 million for 2014).

They’re capable of much more, although general manager Ned Colletti could be more focused on trading one of his outfielders. 

Next week could be his best chance to gauge interest in his trio of outfielders that he’s willing to trade—Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp (pictured). Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported last month that the Dodgers were willing to listen to offers on all three.

Kemp would be the biggest catch and his agent, former big league pitcher Dave Stewart, told Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston that he has a “strong feeling something could happen” involving his client in Orlando next week. Nick Cafardo wrote last month that the Red Sox had inquired on Kemp as a possible replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury, who signed with the Yankees.

With Carlos Beltran, Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson all coming off of the free-agent board in recent days, teams could be more focused on adding outfield help through trades. If Shin-Soo Choo signs over the weekend or early next week, Colletti might be the most popular man around the hotel lobby for the remainder of the meetings.

3. New York Yankees (Buyer)

Carlos Beltran. Jacoby Ellsbury. Hiroki Kuroda. Brian McCann. What an amazing start to the offseason for the Yankees! But they’re not done. At least they better not be. They still have an infield spot to fill, as well as a starting pitcher and at least one late-inning reliever to add before we can declare them playoff contenders once again. 

Free agency is still the likely route for general manager Brian Cashman, although the addition of Beltran and Ellsbury could make Brett Gardner expendable. 

They could also wait for Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka to be posted, although there is no guarantee that his team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will make him available this year, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Instead, they could focus their attention on one of the top three free-agent starters, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, all who are still available. 

4. Seattle Mariners (Buyer)

The Mariners made a huge statement when they agreed to sign star second baseman Robinson Cano to a ten-year, $240 million deal early Friday—the news was first reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. But they weren’t one superstar player away from being legitimate contenders in the AL West. 

And general manager Jack Zduriencik knows that, which is why the M’s are still expected to make news this offseason in free agency, the trade market or both. Acquiring ace starter David Price would be another step in the right direction and the M’s think they have the package of players to make a deal happen, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports

Even if they don’t land Price, the fact that he’s on their radar shows that the M’s aren’t close to being finished in their quest to build a contender for 2014. 

5. Tampa Bay Rays (Buyer/Seller)

The Rays would very likely trade ace David Price (pictured) in the right deal and 17-of-21 front-office personnel surveyed by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick last month think that he’ll be traded. Whether it happens or not, expect this to be the No. 1 topic next week in Orlando.

The Rays are also shopping for a first baseman and they’re interested in re-signing James Loney, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They could also acquire their next first baseman in a deal for Price or in a smaller deal involving one of a handful of players around the league that could be available, including Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland or Logan Morrison, who the Marlins are willing to listen to offers on, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald

 

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Grading the 10 Richest Contracts in MLB History.

Robinson Cano‘s ten-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, which was first reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes (spanish link) earlier in the day, ties him with Albert Pujols for the third-highest contract ever handed out to a major league player—Alex Rodriguez holds the record for the first two spots. 

While there are plenty of examples of players putting up elite numbers into their late-30’s, it’s still a significant risk for the M’s because of the likelihood that they’ll be paying Cano top dollar for at least a few seasons when he’ll no longer be in his prime.

For every David Ortiz, who had a .959 OPS with 30 homers at the age of 37, there are several formerly great players who were out of the game by their early-to-mid 30’s because their skills had diminished to a point where they could no longer produce league average numbers. 

Contracts of this magnitude, years and dollars-wise, are still relatively new with the contract of Derek Jeter the only one amongst the top ten highest of all time that has expired. Therefore, it’s hard to point at any and declare Cano’s deal as a huge mistake by the Mariners.

But for what the players on this “10 Richest Contracts In MLB History” list have done on the field thus far and where they appear headed over the course of their deals, it’s not too early to pass judgment and place a grade on their impact. 

Each of the 10 slides contains contract details, average WAR per season over the course of the deal, a summary on the player’s impact and/or potential impact in the future and a letter grade.

The player’s contract, according to Baseball Prospectus, is listed. The player’s average WAR (wins above replacement) per season, according to Baseball-Reference, is also listed. 

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Matching Up MLB Team Weaknesses with Free Agents’ Strengths

The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have each filled major voids for left-handed power hitters for the middle of their respective lineups, while the St. Louis Cardinals didn’t waste time upgrading at the shortstop position. Out west, the Los Angeles Dodgers filled out the hole in the back of their rotation while the Angels picked up a former World Series MVP to man the hot corner. 

It’s been much busier than normal prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, but there are plenty of holes still left to fill for teams and a lot of free agents who can fill them. 

Here are eight of the more notable roster weaknesses that could be strengthened in free agency.

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2014 MLB Free Agency: Best Bargains Still Available on the Market

Of the free-agent signings thus far, there are certainly a couple that could turn out to be bargains. If Josh Johnson (San Diego Padres) and Chris Young (New York Mets) return to form, they’ll be well worth the one-year deals at the cost of $8 million and $7.25 million, respectively.

Same for David Murphy, who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Cleveland Indians, and LaTroy Hawkins, who will cost the Colorado Rockies no more than $2.5 million to at least start the season as their closer.

Here are five more potential bargains still available on the free-agent market. 

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How Josh Johnson Would Fit in the San Francisco Giants Rotation

The San Francisco Giants aren’t wasting any time this offseason, already filling two of three potential holes in a starting rotation that has been amongst the best in baseball for years.

Tim Lincecum was re-signed to a two-year, $35 million deal last month, while three-time All-Star Tim Hudson agreed to a two-year, $23 million deal on Monday. Two down, one to go?  

Despite having a handful of in-house options to compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, including Yusmeiro Petit, who pitched well in seven late-season starts in 2013 (3.59 ERA, 42.2 IP, 40 H, 11 BB, 40 K), and Eric Surkamp (2.80 ERA in 16 starts between Triple-A and Double-A), the Giants might not be done adding starting pitching. 

And if Josh Johnson has his way, he could be the last piece to the rotation puzzle. According to Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, the 29-year-old has let the Giants and the San Diego Padres know that they are his first choices to be his next team. 

Not only are the two teams a short plane ride away from his Las Vegas home, Johnson’s need to rebuild his value after a disappointing 2013 season makes each team an ideal fit because of their respective pitcher-friendly ballparks. 

After establishing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game while with the Marlins, posting a 39-13 record with a 2.80 ERA, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in an 84-start span from 2008 until early-2011, Johnson suffered a shoulder injury that cut his 2011 season short.

When he returned in 2012, he wasn’t as dominant as in years past, although he did manage to post a 3.81 ERA with 3.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 31 starts. Traded to Toronto last offseason, he showed signs of his old self but never fully got back on track as he spent two separate stints on the disabled list and finished the season with a 6.20 ERA in only 16 starts, including six with at least five earned runs allowed. 

Now three seasons removed from his shoulder troubles, teams could see Johnson as a great “buy low” candidate with tremendous upside, especially a team like the Giants, who have already committed close to $53 million in salary to their top four starting pitchers in 2014, according to MLBDepthCharts, and might not want to add too much more. 

Adding a former ace in the prime of his career at a price anywhere south of $10 million for a season in which he’s motivated by the potential of a huge payday the following offseason could be a terrific investment. When a big market team like the Giants can pencil that former ace into the No. 5 spot of their rotation, where his potential inability to rebound wouldn’t have a major impact on the team, it’s also a pretty safe investment. 

Johnson’s lone start at AT&T Park in 2013 was one of his best of the season as he tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts. In five career starts against San Francisco at their home ballpark, Johnson has a 2.65 ERA with eight walks and 26 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched. 

The ballpark he was pitching in wasn’t the reason that he could no longer get batters out. But a home park that he feels comfortable in—mostly because balls don’t fly out of AT&T Park and pitches thrown out over the heart of the plate are less likely to be hit over the right field wall—could do wonders for his confidence level. 

In his potential rotation-mates in San Francisco, Johnson could find much in common and, maybe more importantly, much to learn from one of the most successful groups of starters currently assembled.

Staff ace Matt Cain will also be trying to rebound from a poor season, at least by his standards, while Lincecum will be able to share his knowledge on how he finally got back on track after a year-and-a-half of struggles. Hudson, who is also returning from a season-ending injury in 2013, has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since entering the league in 1999.

If Johnson can at least pitch as well as he did over a nine-start span from April 16 through July 9 (3.74 ERA, 53 IP, 53 H, 18 BB, 53 K; four starts with at least 7 IP and no more than 2 ER allowed), he’d be a great value. If it all comes together again for the 6-foot-7 right-hander, though, and he regains the form of his days with the Florida Marlins, whichever team signs him could have the free agent bargain of the offseason. 

 

 

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Creative Fixes for MLB Buyers’ Roster Holes

As so many championship teams have proved throughout the years, signing the top free agents on the market is rarely the key to success on the field. 

The Boston Red Sox had the payroll flexibility to sign Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke last offseason. They passed. Instead, they spread out the wealth and filled out the roster with several veteran free agents who didn’t require more than three-year contracts. 

When Mike Napoli’s medical exam revealed a degenerative hip condition, they had to get creative to keep him from signing elsewhere by structuring a one-year, incentive-based deal. Stephen Drew was signed to a one-year deal at a bargain rate as he aimed to rebuild his value after an injury cost him most of the prior two seasons. Koji Uehara’s total cost for 2013-14 will be $9.25 million, which has already proved to be one of the best values of last offseason. 

It wasn’t a typical offseason plan, but general manager Ben Cherington executed it to perfection. 

The small market Pittsburgh Pirates also did well, freeing up about $6 million by trading Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox for setup man Mark Melancon and three other minor leaguers after signing Jason Grilli to close at a much cheaper rate. Then there’s the Francisco Liriano’s deal, which will pay him less than $13 million for 2013-14. It’s an even better value than Uehara’s deal with Boston. 

With the reported asking prices for some of the top free agents having reached alarming rates, several teams will look to get creative this winter as they try to fill holes on their roster without making the risky big-money deal to land the top free agents.

Here are some cost-efficient and creative moves that six contenders could make.  

 

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Why a Max Scherzer Blockbuster Trade Would Haunt the Detroit Tigers

The starting rotation of the Detroit Tigers is one of the best in baseball. It had the most wins (76), the lowest ERA (3.44) and the least homers allowed in the American League last season while leading the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts.

And Cy Young Award candidate Max Scherzer, who the Tigers are reportedly willing to trade in the right deal this offseason, was probably the biggest reason why. 

Take him out of the equation, and the Tigers are left with a gaping hole in their rotation. Replacing his 23 wins (including two in the playoffs), 2.90 ERA and 16 starts (including two in the playoffs) of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed is no easy task.

In fact, it’s probably impossible unless they were able to sign free agent Ervin Santana, who also had 14 regular-season starts of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed. And even that wouldn’t be the same because Santana doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters as Scherzer.

Maybe Masahiro Tanaka, who’s expected to be posted from the Japanese League later this offseason, is capable of picking up the slack. Maybe not is more likely. Pitchers like that are few and far between, and the price would be outrageous for a guy who might be able to fill Scherzer‘s shoes. 

But that’s exactly why the Tigers are willing to shop the 29-year-old Scherzer a year before he’s eligible for free agency. Unless the Tampa Bay Rays trade David Price, it’s likely that he’d be the best starting pitcher acquisition of the offseason, and the return could be huge.

If they don’t feel that a contract extension can be worked out, it wouldn’t hurt to at least find out what one season of his services would bring them back in a trade. 

When rumors first surfaced last month after Danny Knobler of CBS Sports first reported a Scherzer trade as having a “real chance,” I named five potential suitors and the trade package it would take for each team to acquire him.  

Each package contained a very good prospect or two and, in most cases, a pitcher who could help the big league club in 2014. For an organization with a weak farm system and needs in the bullpen, these types of deals would need to be explored.

Pulling the trigger on one of those types of deals, however, could be disastrous for a team that has averaged 92 regular-season wins and has reached the ALCS in three consecutive seasons.

Even if it’s a move that can be viewed as necessary for the future success of the organization, taking a major step back during any season in which stars Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are still in the prime of their careers could be viewed as a lost opportunity. 

Lefty Drew Smyly (pictured), who is next in line for a rotation spot in Detroit, is deserving of a shot. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were much better than the average No. 5 starter. The problem is how it affects the rotation as a whole.

Verlander, as he proved late in the season and throughout the playoffs, is still one of the best pitchers around and one of a few true “aces” in the game. Anibal Sanchez, whose spectacular season (14-8, 2.57 ERA, 2.7 walk rate, 10.0 strikeout rate) was overshadowed by Scherzer‘s win total, would follow him in the rotation. He’s a very capable No. 2, especially if 2013 wasn’t a fluke. But he may have been the best No. 3 in baseball. 

Doug Fister is in the same boat. One of the best No. 4 starters in baseball but only pretty good as a No. 3. It’s also hard to complain about having Rick Porcello as your fifth starter. But a guy with a career 4.51 ERA as the No. 4 starter doesn’t speak well for the overall state of the rotation. 

Of course, it’s possible for general manager Dave Dombrowski to sign one of the second-tier free-agent starters, such as Dan Haren or Bartolo Colon, to preserve the little rotation depth the Tigers have and keep Smyly in the pen for now. The drop-off wouldn’t be as severe, and he could look to upgrade in another area of the roster to try to make up for the rotation downgrade. 

The risk in heading into the season without the strength of the team intact, however, is much greater than in years past.

In 2012, the Tigers allowed much less talented teams in the division to hang around longer than necessary before pulling away late in the season. This year, the competition from the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals was heated, and Detroit barely held on to edge out Cleveland for the division title. 

Things won’t get any easier in 2014, as the young core of talent on those same two teams should continue to get better and the other two division opponents, the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins, have lots of payroll space and are each capable of making a splash this winter. 

It’s difficult to stay on top as the Tigers have done for the past three seasons. The offseason planning of their rivals likely revolves around what they need to do to knock the champions off the top. It can also be difficult to get back on top after you’ve fallen—the Tigers went 24 years (1987-2010) without winning the division. 

With or without Scherzer, there’s a possibility that they aren’t the last team standing in their division at season’s end.

But with the team’s window to win a World Series championship with their current high-paid stars likely closing sometime in the next few seasons—lack of minor league talent to replace aging veterans has a tendency to do that—they must take the win-now approach even if it means losing Scherzer for nothing more than a draft pick next offseason.

Dombrowski could be tempted by the offers, but he’ll pass on each and every one. Why? Because he knows that missing out on the playoffs in 2014 because the starting rotation wasn’t quite strong enough could haunt the organization for years. And he doesn’t want to be the cause of that.

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Ranking All 2014 MLB Free-Agent Positions by Impact Talent Depth

The 2014 MLB free-agent class is the best of the last decade. But where does its strength lie? Is it in the pitching department? The outfield? Catching? 

Does it have depth, star power or both? Will the supply and demand of the market force some teams to move quicker at certain positions than in others? 

Look no further than my free-agent positional rankings—catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching, relief pitching—for answers to those questions and much more.

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Is Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford the Smartest Dodgers Star to Trade?

It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers have four outfielders on their roster who are capable of starting for most teams in the majors. So it makes sense that, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, they’re asking interested teams to make them an offer on either Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp.

Yasiel Puig isn’t going anywhere, although Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angels thinks they should at least consider it. 

Which one of Crawford, Ethier or Kemp they’ll trade depends on several factors. How much of the remaining contract would they have to eat? Which player will net the best return of talent? Which player is the most essential to the team’s success over the next several seasons? 

Here’s a look at each trade candidate as I try to answer these questions and ultimately determine which trade would make the most sense for the Dodgers. 

 

Trade Carl Crawford?

After a terrible debut season with the Boston Red Sox in 2011 (.694 OPS), Crawford has had his moments over the past two seasons. And at times, he’s looked like the guy who was voted to four All-Star teams and who posted an .803 OPS with an average of 14 homers, 27 doubles, 13 triples, 73 runs batted in, 95 runs and 49 stolen bases per season from 2004-2010 while with the Tampa Bay Rays

The problem is that he hasn’t been on the field enough to determine if he’s all the way back. The 32-year-old, who is still due $82.5 million over the next four seasons, missed most of 2012 because of wrist and elbow injuries and then missed time with a hamstring injury in 2013.

When he was on the field, though, he posted a .746 OPS with nine homers, 40 doubles, five triples, 50 runs batted in, 85 runs and 20 stolen bases in 147 games. That’s not quite back to where he was, but it’s pretty solid production.

Crawford’s 13-for-42 performance in the playoffs, which included four homers, has also helped to put his name back on the radar of teams who might be looking for some speed at the top of their order. 

Would a team with a hole in left field and the leadoff spot—the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers could be fits—be willing to take on his contract, which is more than $20 million per season through his age-36 season? Not a chance.

But how much would it be willing to spend, for example, if Crawford was available on the open market and a four-year deal was a requirement? I’m guessing he’d get no more than $40 million over four years. The Dodgers ownership group has deep pockets, but I doubt it’s interested in eating $41 million, not even if a team was willing to throw in a top prospect. That’s not going to happen, by the way.

Teams with a substantial amount of payroll space might be willing to take on a bigger portion of the contract, but the Dodgers would be lucky to get a fringe prospect in return. It would basically be a salary dump, and they’d save around $20-30 million for someone to take on a good chunk of Crawford’s contract. 

The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, who will reportedly have some spending money this offseason, could be interesting fits if they’re shut out in free agency.

Crawford could be an intriguing fit with the up-and-coming Astros for a couple reasons. First off, he is from Houston and could flourish with a return home. He was also a big part of the Rays organization as it transitioned from a young and inexperienced team with potential to the AL champions a few years later. But it’s hard to see their front office taking him on at this age, even if the contract commitment is cut to four years and $52 million.

 

Trade Andre Ethier?

As the Dodgers were anticipating the arrival of Puig and a full return to health for Crawford and Kemp sometime in June, a struggling Ethier appeared to be the odd man out in the Dodgers outfield. He just didn’t have any trade value because of his lack of production at the plate—he had a .661 OPS on June 10—and he had a contract that no team in baseball wanted to take on.

But a decision never had to be made. The four outfielders were never active at the same time for very long, mostly due to Kemp’s lingering ankle injury, and Ethier was the team’s best option to play center field regularly in his place. 

Not only did he do a viable job on defense, Ethier’s bat finally got going and he played an integral role in the team’s amazing run that began in mid-June. Over his last 82 games, the 31-year-old posted an .873 OPS with eight homers, 23 doubles and 37 runs batted in. 

In his seven previous big league seasons, all with the Dodgers, Ethier posted an .838 OPS with an average of 18 homers, 33 doubles and 76 runs batted in per season. He was voted to two All-Star teams and was a Gold Glove right fielder in 2011.

His two and a half months of struggles to start the season now appear to be the outlier, and his value has shot back up to the point where several teams would love to have him in their starting lineup. But not at the remaining four years and $71.5 million still due on his contract. 

On the open market, Ethier could probably still land a four-year, $48 million deal. If the Dodgers would eat somewhere between $20-25 million, they could probably net a good (not great) prospect in return.

A team taking on more of the contract, possibly $55-60 million, might be able to acquire him for a much lesser prospect. The Dodgers might be willing to take on much more of the contract, however, if they could net a top prospect.

The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners could be great fits, while the Cincinnati Reds could use him in center field in 2014 and then shift him to a corner outfield spot once Billy Hamilton is ready to take over.  

I can see one of those three teams taking on $48 million of Ethier’s contract and giving up a mid-level prospect in return. 

 

Trade Matt Kemp?

One of the most remarkable things about the Dodgers’ 62-28 finish to the regular season was that Kemp only logged 72 at-bats during the team’s run. I guess he wasn’t that integral to the team’s success. 

That’s not true, of course.

The Dodgers were without their star center fielder, but just about everything else that needed to go right went right for them. Otherwise, it would’ve been an extremely difficult task to jump back into the pennant race at that stage of the season. 

Typically, not everything will align as it did and a player of Kemp’s immense talent is needed to carry the team through stretches when things aren’t clicking on all cylinders.

Still, it’s at least worth finding out what the Dodgers can get for him in a trade, because you just never know if a team is willing to make an offer that general manager Ned Colletti cannot refuse. 

If a team is willing to take on most, if not all, of the six years and $128 million remaining on Kemp’s contract and offer a package that includes two top prospects and an infielder or starting pitcher that can fill a hole on the 2014 roster, it might be hard for the Dodgers to say no. 

Otherwise, you don’t give up a five-tool player who was second in MVP voting in 2011 after posting a .986 OPS with 39 homers, 126 runs batted in and 40 stolen bases and who was having another huge season in 2012 before injuries finally slowed him down late in the season.

At 29 years of age, Kemp should have plenty of terrific seasons ahead of him if he can avoid the injury bug. Despite his injury-plagued 2013 season, it wouldn’t have been a surprise if he was able to land a six-year, $120 million deal had he been a free agent this offseason. 

Thus, his contract shouldn’t be as much of an issue for teams as those of Crawford and Ethier would be. The Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Reds, Mets, New York Yankees, Mariners and Rangers could all have interest in trading for Kemp and his entire contract. The bigger issue would be the trade package necessary. 

Would the Cubs be willing to give up two of Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler? Probably not.

Do the White Sox even have a prospect that’s good enough to headline a trade package? No. Would they be willing to give up ace left-hander Chris Sale and two of their better prospects to acquire Kemp? If they thought they could land one of the top free-agent starters to replace Sale, maybe they would.

Would the Mets part with Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud? Doubtful. 

If the Rangers gave up Jurickson Profar, who’d fill the starting shortstop role with Hanley Ramirez shifting over to third base, and two of their best prospects, would that be enough for the Dodgers? Possibly. 

My guess is that Kemp is still highly coveted and Colletti will have his hands full going through trade proposals over the next several weeks. 

 

Conclusion

Trade Kemp? No.

Clearing $128 million in future salary while filling a hole on the major league roster and replenishing the farm system is tempting. But players like Matt Kemp don’t come along very often. If he returns to full health, the Dodgers will regret trading him. 

Trade Crawford? No.

While Colletti isn’t likely to lose much sleep by trading him after just one season as a Dodger, he’ll be kicking himself for sending him elsewhere when his value was so low. A productive season without any stints on the disabled list and Crawford’s value could reach the point where the team could actually get a solid return and wouldn’t have to pick up as much of the remaining salary next offseason.

Trade Ethier? Yes! 

If all four outfielders were to return in 2014, it’s Ethier who would likely be on the bench more often than not. Since this isn’t good for his value, Colletti would be smart to trade him now after his strong finish and be happy if a team takes on $48 million of his remaining salary and offers him a mid-level prospect in return.

The outfield picture would clear up, and he’d likely have some more payroll space to work with as he tries to fill holes in the rotation and the left side of the infield this offseason. This is the smart move.    

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Ban on MLB Home Plate Collisions Would Be Right Move but Decades Late

One of the topics expected to be discussed at next week’s GM meetings is how to reduce the number of home plate collisions, which have always been injury risks.

Due to the vulnerable position of the catcher trying to block home plate while concentrating on trying to catch a baseball, while the runner bears down on him at full speed with the intention of jarring the ball out of his glove—whether he catches it or not—it’s not exactly the safest job on the field.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, it was the devastating leg injury to star catcher Buster Posey suffered in a 2011 collision that has helped bring the idea of creating a rule to protect the catcher to the forefront. Several other violent home plate collisions in 2013 are also likely to have contributed, including one in Game 5 of the ALCS in which Tigers catcher Alex Avila strained his patellar tendon.

At the time of the Posey injury, Ricky Doyle of NESN.com argued that a change wasn’t necessary because home plate collisions were rare and injuries occurring because of them were ever bigger rarities. For whatever reason, though, they seem to be occurring much more often as of late and could finally lead to some action.

Several executives are in favor of a rule change, which could end up being similar to the “Collision Rule,” implemented by the NCAA prior to the 2011 season. The rule states, “Contact above the waist that was initiated by the base runner shall not be judged as an attempt to reach the base or plate.”

As a result, the umpire has the ability to rule the baserunner out if he feels the rule was violated. The player could also be ejected if the contact was determined to be flagrant or malicious.

As of last offseason, Joe Torre, who is Major League Baseball’s vice president of on-field operations, was resistant to the idea. He said he was willing to discuss a potential change, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, but was not willing to make an adjustment unless “something is going to make the game safer and not affect the way the game is played.”

It was an “old school” view from a former All-Star catcher, who started 836 games at the position between 1961 and 1970 before finishing out the last seven seasons of his career splitting his time between first base and third base.

Ironically, Torre was an All-Star in 1970 when Pete Rose and Ray Fosse were involved in the most memorable home plate collision of all time.

But two of the league’s biggest proponents of a rule change, managers Bruce Bochy and Mike Matheny, are also former catchers. Bochy played in the majors from 1978 to 1987, while Matheny’s big league career started in 1994 and ended in 2006.

Of course, Bochy and Matheny manage Posey and Yadier Molina, a pair of catchers who are the most valuable players on their respective teams.

Several other talented catchers around the league who also factor highly into their team’s offense are signed to long-term deals, including Jonathan Lucroy, Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana. Two teams will also invest a lot of money into free-agent catchers Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia this winter.

Bochy and Matheny aren’t alone. Teams do want to protect their multimillion-dollar investments.

Professional baseball players have always been bigger, faster and stronger than the average person. But they’ve become much bigger, much faster and much stronger throughout the years as strength training and nutrition have become more prevalent. Legal supplements and illegal performance-enhancing drugs have only increased that since the start of the steroid era.

Collisions have the potential to be much more violent now than when Torre played. And the players who are being put in harm’s way have much more invested in them than players from previous eras.

Posey and Joe Mauer (pictured), the two highest-paid catchers in the game, are expected to transition into full-time roles as first basemen while still in the prime of their careers. They’ll still have value but would quickly become overpaid $20-million-plus-per-season hitters with the all-important catcher role no longer part of their job description.

Due to the wear and tear that a catcher sustains throughout his career, a position switch could certainly help to extend a catcher’s career or just allow him to play at full strength for much longer. But if a rule change is implemented to make it safer to be a major league catcher, there’s a good chance that Posey and Mauer’s catching careers will last much longer than had been expected.

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