Kuzul

If you followed the San Francisco Giants in 2013, you’re probably well aware that the production from the starting rotation dipped so dramatically that the then-reigning champs saw a 32-point increase in their team ERA, including an 80-point jump from 2011.

But Barry Zito and his 9.56 road ERA are gone, and veteran Tim Hudson is in as the replacement. Add in Matt Cain’s second-half success (more on that in a second) and Tim Lincecum’s continuous improvement, and the outlook is relatively bright for the once-heralded Giants rotation. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the five starters in 2014.

Matt Cain

Cain’s numbers from 2013 are a bit deceiving when trying to project his 2014 totals. Yes, his 4.00 ERA was alarmingly high, but consider this: After the All-Star break, Cain had a 2.36 ERA.

Why did the Giants righty make such a drastic improvement? Quite simply, Cain regained his command in the second half. According to FanGraphs, his walk rate dipped from 7.9 to 6.1, and he allowed just 0.87 home runs per nine innings, a huge dip from the 1.29 total that marked his disastrous first half.

That’s a testament to Cain’s ability to better locate the ball in the strike zone, an inability that plagued him in the first half to the tune of 16 home runs allowed.

Don’t expect Cain to come close to matching those fantastic second-half totals this season; he stranded an astonishing 84.5 percent of runners after the break, a total he can’t match for an entire season. With that being said, expect Cain to once again return to ace-like form.

Projection: 14-7, 3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 175 Ks

Madison Bumgarner

There’s not much to say about Bumgarner, except that the Giants could have used four more of him in 2013. The young lefty stepped in as the staff ace when the rest of the staff faltered, and he put together a 2.77 ERA with a minuscule .199 opponents’ batting average.

Opponents also had a .251 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Bumgarner, fifth-lowest in the majors according to FanGraphs. Conventional wisdom says that total will start to move upward toward the league average, but I’d argue that we can expect a similar BABIP, and thus a similar overall level of dominance, from MadBum in 2014.

Why? Because Bumgarner still possesses his nasty arsenal of pitches, and when he doesn’t strike out batters, they’re often weakly rolling over his pitches, as evidenced by MadBum‘s 46.8 ground ball percentage.

“I love the way he goes about it. No emotion,” said Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, per Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle. “He just goes out there and competes. On the field, you just like to see that mentality. He gives up eight, or he shuts them out, and you see no difference in his attitude and mind-set.”

Manager Bruce Bochy has similar admiration for MadBum.

“I don’t put a ceiling on this kid,” Bochy said, per Schulman. “What he did in 2010, how he handled the playoffs and the World Series, he’s got a great makeup. He’s a big, strong guy who wants to get better.”

That drive to succeed, combined with a near-unhittable repertoire of pitches and promising statistical trends, all point toward another dominant season from Bumgarner.

Projection: 17-8, 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 210 Ks

Tim Lincecum

Once the ace of the staff, Lincecum is now the most unpredictable starter in the rotation. Gone are the days of accolades and record numbers, but can The Freak return to respectability?

After posting an MLB-worst 5.18 ERA in 2011, Lincecum lowered that total by 81 points last season. As he learns to pitch around hitters instead of trying to blow them away, he will continue to experience growing pains, as we’ve witnessed during the last few seasons. But those growing pains are becoming increasingly infrequent, and the improvement that we’ve seen from Timmy is a testament to that hard work.

There’s also some evidence that points toward a bit of bad luck for Lincecum in 2013. He stranded only 69.4 percent of runners last season, according to FanGraphs, the 10th-lowest total in the majors, and a number that should even out a bit this year. Lincecum also had the 28th-highest BABIP in the majors last season, again a total that could level out a bit.

That doesn’t let him off the hook, but it’s an indication that he could move closer yet to becoming an average MLB starter, which is essentially all the Giants are asking. Though, with the $35 million the club will owe him over the next two seasons, it certainly wouldn’t hurt if he reverted to his Cy Young-worthy performance. (Not going to happen.)

Projection: 11-12, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 215 Ks

Tim Hudson

Hudson is coming off a pretty severe injury to his right ankle, so don’t expect any miracles this season. However, consistency is the name of the game when it comes to Hudson’s career, and you can expect more of the same in 2014.

Indeed, the veteran right-hander has never compiled a non-winning season, failing to eclipse a .600 winning percentage only twice in 15 seasons. He also hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since 2006, a number he’s reached just twice in his career.

Hudson is now back in the Bay Area, and he’ll once again pitch in a favorable pitcher’s park. (He compiled a 92-39 record in six seasons with the Oakland A’s at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum.) 

According to an Associated Press report, via ESPN, Hudson is progressing reasonably well in his return. He “looked good,” according to Buster Posey, and Bruce Bochy praised the veteran’s mechanics.

“He had a smooth, easy delivery, the same I’ve seen over the years,” Bochy said. “I don’t see him changing anything.”

Assuming Hudson returns from injury in time for the season and doesn’t experience much trouble regaining form, he’s primed for a nice return to the Bay Area.

Projection: 12-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 120 Ks

Ryan Vogelsong

Perhaps the only pitcher in the rotation who rivals the unpredictable nature of Lincecum is Vogelsong. It’s hard to draw much from the small sample size that constituted Vogelsong‘s 2013 season, but he struggled mightily when he did pitch.

The safe pick would be to project something in between Vogey’s 2013 numbers (5.73 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and his 2012 totals (3.37, 1.23), but I’m going to go out on a limb and expect a return to 2012 form.

Why? For one, Vogelsong is a true competitor, and he’s talked about how he shoulders the blame for 2013’s failures and how he expects to improve. I also wrote recently that Vogelsong won’t have the expectations that followed his 2011 and 2012 success, thanks to his down season and the Giants’ overall lackluster performance. He’ll begin the season as the No. 5 starter in the rotation, meaning the Giants won’t be asking much of him.

Speaking of the Giants’ down year, another positive that can be drawn from the failure is the additional rest that the starters received due to their lack of participation in the postseason. Perhaps that time off is just what Vogelsong (and the rest of the staff) needs to come out firing in 2014.

Projection: 13-8, 3.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 130 Ks

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2014 is an even year, so the San Francisco Giants have to win the World Series. Right?

Not exactly, but San Francisco does have the pieces in place to make a playoff run if all goes well. Several players in particular will be important in making 2014 a season to remember, unlike 2013.

Criteria:

• How much the team depends on the given player (higher dependence = higher ranking)
• How certain the player’s success is (lower certainty = higher ranking); for example, Mike Morse’s success is less certain than, say, Madison Bumgarner’s.

Let’s take a look at the key players on the Giants roster in 2014.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Videos courtesy of MLB.com.

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Not much went right for the San Francisco Giants in 2013, as they saw their win total drop by 18 from the previous season thanks to a barrage of injuries and an underperforming pitching rotation.

Yet, despite the disappointing season, 2014 holds several promising signs for the Giants. Perhaps most importantly, they’ll have a few new faces on the field, with the return of Angel Pagan and Ryan Vogelsong in addition to the newly acquired Michael Morse.

But there are even positive signs when looking at how the Giants players who were on the field performed in 2013. Certain individual performances and second-half improvements in particular give the Giants reason for optimism when looking ahead to the upcoming season. Let’s take a look.

Madison Bumgarner‘s Emergence as the Staff Ace

Anyone who followed the Giants in 2013 knows that Matt Cain had a down year, with his highest ERA since 2006 and the lowest WAR of any full season in his career.

But Cain’s underperformance gave Bumgarner the opportunity to show his value as a legitimate top pitcher in the majors while proving he is capable of serving as the ace of the staff.

Looking beyond his standard statistics, few pitchers were as consistent as Mad Bum in 2013. He didn’t allow more than three earned runs in a start until June 1, his 20th start of the year, and it happened only four times all year. Opponents also batted just .203 against Bumgarner, fifth lowest in the majors.

Better yet, Cain has an excellent chance of rebounding in 2014. He had a minuscule 2.36 ERA during the second half of the season, a gargantuan improvement from his 5.06 ERA in the first half.

Assuming Cain returns to form, the Giants will have two aces next year, in addition to reliable veteran Tim Hudson. The former ace (but still effective starter) hasn’t had an ERA over four since 2006, and he’ll be pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks, per ESPN, in the majors.

Remember the last time Hudson pitched in a ballpark like AT&T Park? That was with the Oakland A’s at the Coliseum, when he won 92 games with a .702 winning percentage, 3.30 ERA and three top-six Cy Young Award finishes in six years. The bottom line: Putting Hudson in a pitcher-friendly ballpark yields exceptional results.

Improved Overall Plate Discipline in the Second Half

The consensus is that the Giants are a bunch of free-swingers who only know how to get on base by hitting the ball. That’s not entirely untrue, but the team as a whole took a giant leap in the right direction regarding plate discipline following the All-Star break.

In the season’s second half, the Giants walked at a rate of 8.3 percent, good for 12th in the majors during that span. That’s a dramatic improvement from their walk percentage of 7.1 during the first half, 22nd in the majors.

Hunter Pence, generally viewed as the biggest free-swinger on the team not named Pablo Sandoval, was perhaps the biggest contributor to that positive trend. He nearly doubled his walk rate, from 5.8 percent to 10.1 percent, drawing six more walks in well over 100 fewer plate appearances.

Sandoval also drastically increased his walk rate between the season’s halves, from 6.2 percent to 10.4 percent. Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro increased their respective walk rates in the second half as well.

The inherent value of this statistic can be proved in part by looking at past top-performing teams. In the seven MLB seasons since 2006, only two World Series winners, the 2010 and 2012 Giants, finished outside of the top 10 in walk rate.

During each of those seasons, the Giants had incredible pitching staffs and award-winning play from Posey. Now that they don’t feature teams of quite the same caliber, they’ll have to start improving in a category in which they’ve gotten away with lackluster performances in the past: walking.

The second half of 2013 was a promising start.

Brandon Belt’s Second-Half Surge

One of the most talked-about aspects of the Giants’ season (at least on the positive side) was Brandon Belt’s huge improvement after the All-Star break. 

Belt’s retooled swing helped him produce a 66-point increase in his batting average and a 131-point increase in his OPS. That came thanks to a decreased fly-ball percentage (43.9 to 38.2), a must with half of his games taking place at AT&T Park, and an explosion in line-drive percentage (21.5 to 27.7).

Whether Belt can continue his success at the plate will play a huge role in determining the Giants’ fate in 2013. Manager Bruce Bochy will rely on him as the team’s No. 3 hitter in the lineup, meaning it’ll be up to him to produce runs and get on base for the big bats behind him (Posey, Pence).

The Giants lineup hasn’t featured a reliable power bat since Barry Bonds’ departure; could Belt change that dry spell? 2014 will provide a good indication.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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The Oakland A’s have several position players whose performances will decisively dictate the overall success of the team in 2014.

One of those key players is first baseman Brandon Moss. In 2013, Moss played a full season for the first time in his career, and he performed exceptionally. He blasted 30 home runs, drove in 87 runs and slugged .522, the latter of which was good for sixth in the American League.

Those totals came one year after Moss compiled a .954 OPS with 21 home runs in only 265 at-bats in 2012. In total, Moss hit 51 home runs in 711 at-bats between 2012 and 2013.

Moss’ breakout year in 2013 came during a season in which the A’s ranked third in the majors in home runs. However, the high total is a bit misleading.

Yoenis Cespedes hit 26 home runs, but he performed so poorly in every other hitting category (.294 OBP, 137 strikeouts) that his relatively high homer total didn’t mean a whole lot.

Josh Donaldson also added 24 home runs, but his role was clearly not that of a slugger. He was a fantastic middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but the A’s certainly didn’t expect him to hit home runs with regularity when he stepped to the plate. His .384 OBP, 93 RBI and 89 runs showed his true value: driving in runs when given the opportunity and getting on base. (He hit .336 with runners in scoring position.)

In short, Moss was the Athletics‘ de facto power hitter in 2013. And they’ll be looking for him to play that same role in 2014.

History has shown that successful teams almost always have a true slugger in the lineup. In fact, since 2000, only the 2012 and 2010 World Series-winning San Francisco Giants have lacked a 30-home run hitter among title-winning teams.

In each of those years, the Giants featured exceptional pitching, even for World Series-winning standards. Also, their World Series counterparts each year featured teams with 30-plus home run hitters. The trend speaks for itself.

Clearly, the absence of a reliable power bat on a team means they will have trouble going far in the playoffs.

That’s not to say that if Brandon Moss hits, say, 27 home runs, the A’s automatically can’t win the World Series. There is no “golden rule” that a team must have a 30-home run hitter to win the title. But it certainly makes it easier to have a hitter who can drive in runs in a hurry, and when scoring is at a premium in the postseason, that ability becomes especially valuable. As the late, great Earl Weaver once said, “The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.”

Furthermore, a power-hitting bat forces pitchers to sometimes pitch around that hitter, creating more RBI opportunities for other batters. For example, on the 2013 Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia saw many additional good pitches to hit because teams were wary of walking him in front of David Ortiz’s power bat. Also, when teams pitched around Ortiz, that gave Mike Napoli, Daniel Nava and all the other succeeding hitters additional RBI opportunities.

The bottom line is that almost all successful teams have at least one big power hitter. Most even have two. For the A’s, Cespedes has shown he isn’t necessarily a reliable threat at the plate. That means Brandon Moss will have to step up this year. Again.

Luckily, a power outage won’t necessarily spell doom for the A’s. They have a solid rotation that is capable of dominating teams when the offense goes stagnant.

Yet, that rotation doesn’t quite stack up to that of the title-winning Giants. It is filled with question marks, including the performance of free-agent signee Scott Kazmir. There’s no telling whether the left-hander will have a year akin to his 2013 performance, when he was a respectable 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA, or to his time with the Angels, when he had a 5.31 ERA in 188 innings.

The lack of a dominant rotation and the historical precedent that title-winning teams almost always have power hitters means the A’s need Moss to step up this year. If his last two seasons are any indication, he should be more than up to the challenge.

All statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

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It’s safe to say that Oakland A’s outfielders struggled in 2013. In fact, they ranked 28th in the majors with a collective batting average of .236.

Yoenis Cespedes was perhaps the biggest disappointment. Cespedes, the Cuban sensation who batted .292 with an .861 OPS in 2012, fell off in almost every major category in 2013. His home run total jumped from 23 to 26, but he posted an alarmingly low .294 OBP, and his OPS fell by 125 points to .736. Additionally, his WAR was cut in half, from 3.4 to 1.7.

Josh Reddick was actually worse than Cespedes. Reddick, who won a Gold Glove in 2012 and hit 32 home runs, also fell off in most statistical categories. His home run total fell by 20, he hit .226 and his OPS was a dismal .686.

Reddick figures to start the season behind newly acquired Craig Gentry on the depth chart, but he should still see plenty of playing time throughout the season. The A’s will need him to step up when he gets opportunities, as his inconsistency at the plate is a serious detriment to the lineup.

Luckily, the A’s shipped Chris Young and his .280 OBP to the New York Mets, so his ineptness at the plate will not be a problem in 2013. Also, the addition of Gentry (.373 OBP in 2013) is a huge improvement offensively.

Despite their struggles at the plate, A’s outfielders are tremendous defensively. Gentry is their second best fielder, as he ranked 10th in the majors in UZR in 2013, according to Fangraphs. Reddick, who was seventh in UZR, is their best defensive outfielder and provides value as a late-inning defensive replacement.

It wasn’t all bad for A’s outfielders offensively though. In fact, they ranked third in RBI and sixth in runs in 2013. Coco Crisp had a solid year, especially with his late-season resurgence. (He hit .287 with 12 home runs in the season’s final two months.)

The outfielders’ high RBI total was mostly a product of the success of other position players. Third baseman Josh Donaldson was an on-base machine (.384 OBP, sixth in the AL), first baseman Brandon Moss had 30 home runs and 87 RBI and shortstop Jed Lowrie hit .290 with 80 runs.

In short, the outfielders’ RBI and runs totals aren’t indicative of good performances because they were made possible by the solid hitting of the infielders. With that being said, if the A’s outfielders can keep doing what they typically do defensively while making a jump back to 2012 levels of production, then 2014 will be a fun season indeed in Oakland.

All statistics courtesy of ESPN, unless otherwise noted.

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Brandon Belt is set for a breakout year in 2014. The San Francisco Giants first baseman posted incredible numbers in the second half of 2013, batting .326 after the All-Star break after hitting .260 before. His OPS went from .784 to .915, a 131-point increase. But if you followed the Giants in 2013, you already knew that.

So what made the difference? Why did Belt start smashing line drives left and right in the second half of the season? Most of that can be attributed to an all-out change in his hitting style.

Stuck in a 1-for-19 slump in late July, Belt took some wise advice from hitting coach Hensley Meulens. According to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News, Meulens suggested than Belt look to Phillies slugger Domonic Brown for help.

Brown, like Belt, struggled upon arriving at the majors, despite being touted as a prospect with high potential. Then, in 2013, Brown broke out with 27 home runs. The explanation? An altered grip on the bat.

“Domonic said it only took him a couple of days to change his grip,” Belt said, per Pavlovic’s story. “I thought, if it only took him a couple of days, maybe I can do it in a couple of days, too.”

The rest is history, as Belt increased his batting average by 66 points in the second half while finishing with career-highs in every major category.

“I was stubborn in the sense that I had had success a certain way before, and I was assuming I could get back to being successful that way,” Belt said, again per Pavlovic. “It just took a little convincing to change, I guess.”

The real question is whether Belt can continue from where he left off when 2014 rolls around. The answer is most likely yes, which can be proven by looking at some of his more advanced numbers.

One of Belt’s most significant improvements in 2013’s second half came in his dramatic fly-ball percentage decrease. In the first half, Belt had an astounding 43.9 percent fly-ball rate, which would have ranked second in the National League had he maintained it for the entire season.

Fortunately, Belt decreased his fly-ball rate to 38.2 percent in the second half. While that number is still much too high, it is a step in the right direction. Decreasing his fly-ball rate even further is key, as AT&T Park’s cavernous dimensions are extremely unkind to fly ball-prone hitters, particularly lefties.

Belt had another important improvement in a batted-ball statistic in 2013’s second half: his line-drive rate. Belt had a mediocre line-drive rate of 21.5 percent in the first half; that total skyrocketed to 27.7 percent in the second half, which would have tied him for first in the National League if he’d done it over the entire course of 2013.

The decreased fly-ball rate and increased line-drive rate both led to a much higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the second half. Belt increased that total by 73 points, from .319 to .392. That is an astoundingly high total, as only Chris Johnson of the Atlanta Braves had a higher BABIP during the entire 2013 season (.394).

Belt also decreased his strikeout percentage from 23.5 percent to 19.8 percent in the second half, a decrease of 3.7 percent. That might not seem like much, but it would translate to 22 fewer strikeouts in a 600-at-bat season. That could, in turn, lead to several more hits throughout the course of the season.

Despite his numerous improvements, Belt must get better against left-handed pitching. He batted just .261 against them in 2013, and his OPS was 112 points lower against lefties than it was against righties.

The Giants, for whom runs will likely be in short supply in 2014, need Belt to step up at the plate. He will likely be their No. 3 hitter, at least on Opening Day. In order for the big bats behind him (Buster Posey, Hunter Pence) to have a chance to drive in runs, Belt will need to repeat his 2013 performance.

If he can further improve his fly-ball rate and become a productive hitter against left-handed pitching, 2014 will be a very fun season indeed for Brandon Belt.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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The 2013 San Francisco Giants consisted of essentially the same team that won the World Series in 2012. They had the same pitching rotation and starting lineup (sans Melky Cabrera).

Yet, the 2013 Giants proved they were an entirely different team from that of 2012, despite having largely the same players. They won 76 games, finishing 21st in runs scored and 22nd in ERA. So why, a year removed from 94 wins and a World Series title, did the Giants finish third in the NL West? What made the difference? 

All statistics courtesy of fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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With the candidates for the American League MVP Award essentially determined already (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera), let’s turn our attention to the National League. The award is wide open this year with no clear favorite standing out.

Who will claim 2014’s National League Most Valuable Player Award? You can be sure it will be one of these players.

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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Taking performance-enhancing drugs and lying about his age apparently did not suffice for Miguel Tejada. The former American League MVP has been suspended for purchasing shares of the Gigantes del Cibao franchise of the Dominican Winter League while he was still an active member of the Aguilas Cibaenas, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.

One would be hard pressed to find a more boneheaded decision by an athlete. According to Yahoo! Sports’ Mark Townsend, Tejada’s latest blunder broke a pair of rules. It is a “conflict of interest,” and “it’s against league rules.” A report by Dionisio Soldevilla on MLB.com, translated into English, has the details:

Tejada played for Cibao Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League and admitted earlier this month that three years ago bought the 72% stake of the company that ran the franchise for the city of San Francisco de Macoris.

This is an unfortunate mistake by the former All-Star, who has suffered a severely damaged reputation since his days of stardom in the early 2000s. Once one of the best shortstops in baseball, Tejada compiled five consecutive years of 100-plus RBI, from 2000-2004. He also earned a reputation as one of the most durable players in the game, playing in all 162 games from 2001-2006.

Since his prime, he has been involved in a number of controversies, including being named in the Mitchell Report in connection to steroids. In 2009, he was charged with lying to Congress about his use of performance-enhancing drugs, later pleading guilty. Most recently, he was suspended for 105 games by MLB on Aug. 17, 2013, for testing positive for Adderall. It was his second positive test for amphetamines.

In 2008, Tejada was also involved in a controversy regarding his age. He was questioned about his birth date in an E:60 interview and later admitted to being two years older than he was officially listed.

Now he is involved in this recent scandal. What will Tejada do next to tarnish his reputation? His impressive career numbers are beginning to take a backseat to all the mistakes he has made throughout his career.

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MLB’s winter meetings in Orlando have reached their conclusion, but plenty of deals still have yet to be made in the baseball world. On the final day of the meetings, the San Francisco Giants made the biggest deal of the day, signing outfielder Michael Morse.

In the light of their successful deal, it seemed appropriate to compile a list of the Giants’ best acquisitions in their 55-year history since moving to San Francisco. Only time will tell if Morse will make it onto a future updated list, but for now, here are the top 10.

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

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