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Boston Red Sox (2010 record: 89-73)

The 2010 edition of the Boston Red Sox was a very good ball club.

Entering the season, it appeared they would have an extraordinary pitching staff but a questionable offense.

As it turned out, the regular season did not follow the script—the offense produced the second-most runs in baseball while the pitching staff was slightly worse than the league average.

It was a case of “what might have been”. The ball club managed to win 89 games despite being decimated by injuries to several of its star players.

They also received sub-par efforts from two of its top starters (Josh Beckett and John Lackey), and endured another what-can-we-expect season from the enigmatic Daisuke Matsuzaka.

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Baltimore Orioles (2010 record: 66-96)

Two words: Buck Showalter.

His hiring meant instant credibility for a moribund franchise. He brought energy, intensity, knowledge and savvy to the baseball diamond and the clubhouse…and he directed the team to a 34-23 finish after his arrival in Charm City—the second-best record in the AL during that 57-game stretch.

After 13 consecutive losing seasons, there is hope once again around Camden Yards.

However, that hope must be tempered with the knowledge that this winter’s moves are nothing more than short-term fixes: an oft-injured Justin Duchscherer, an increasingly aging tandem in Derrek Lee and Vlad Guerrero, a high-strikeout, low-average power bat in Mark Reynolds.

These moves won’t help the Orioles in 2013 or 2014, but it buys them credibility today… and for a ballclub that hasn’t been taken seriously in a long time, THAT is a good place to start.

The real challenge for Showalter will be to make the team competitive before his style wears out its welcome with his players and the team’s ownership. He tends to have that effect on people. His rant on Theo Epstein is illustrative of his arrogant and combative nature. Clearly, the man has learned nothing from his previous personality meltdowns.

Notable additions: RHP Jeremy Accardo, RHP Justin Duchscherer, RHP Kevin Gregg, DH Vladimir Guerrero, SS J.J. Hardy, 1B Derrek Lee, 3B Mark Reynolds

Notable subtractions: RP David Hernandez, RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Will Ohman, OF Corey Patterson, 1B Ty Wiggington

The offense

Catcher: Matt Wieters

Infield: Lee (1B), Brian Roberts (2B), Hardy (SS) and Reynolds (3B)

Outfield: Luke Scott (LF), Adam Jones (CF) and Nick Markakis (RF)

Designated Hitter: Guerrero

The Orioles offense finished next-to-last in the American League in runs scored last year (613 runs) finishing ahead of only the Seattle Mariners, a club that fielded a historically inept lineup.

The attack will be far more robust in 2011.

Roberts will be a key part of any improvement enjoyed by the team. He was sidelined for more than half the season last year with a herniated disc and abdominal strain. The injuries took his speed game from him, and as a result of his absence and injuries, the O’s offense languished. Hopes are he’ll be able to approximate the player he was in 2006-09, when he averaged .288 and scored more than 100 runs annually.

Hardy will be a significant upgrade on Cesar Izturis. He had a rough campaign last year due to an injured wrist, but he should enjoy playing in Camden Yards and could return to his production level of 2007-08, when he averaged 25 HR and 77 RBI.

Reynolds will replace the departed Miguel Tejada at third base. It is unlikely he will ever hit the league average, as he has compiled a brutal 60 percent contact rate as a big leaguer and will have to face the tough pitching staffs in the AL East, but last year’s numbers were a product of a 58 percent contact rate and 26 percent hit rate.

He’ll hit for power at Camden Yards and drive home his fair share of runs…and if his hit rate returns to a respectable level (somewhere in the low-30s), he will produce a respectable .250 average with 35-plus homers and 90-plus RBI. Don’t discount him as the pitching staffs in the NL West are even tougher than those in the AL East.

If his back is healthy, Lee should somewhat approximate the production lost by the departure of Wiggington. He struggled last year with a bad back, but he will be healthy when the 2011 season gets underway. I doubt he’ll hit as well as he did in the second half of last year, after he put his back woes in the rear view mirror, but there is no reason to believe he won’t hit .270, with 25 homers and 80 ribbies.

Guerrero will move Scott to the outfield and (essentially) replace Felix Pie in the lineup. He struggled a bit in 2009 but returned to form last season, demonstrating an extraordinary contact rate (90 percent) and re-discovering his power stroke (29 HR, 115 RBI). He should be able to take advantage of the cozy dimensions and low left field wall. If healthy, he could hit 40 HR and drive in 130-plus runs this year.

Wieters enjoyed better stats in the second half of last year due to improvements in both his contact rate and hit rate—is this sustainable? Was the marginal improvement a harbinger of better days or will he continue to struggle in 2011?

While many pundits believe he could have a breakout season in 2011, I do not foresee much in terms of an improvement. His swing is too long and it takes too long for his bat to get through the strike zone and a good fastball will regularly overpower him.

In the outfield, Scott provides a consistent and stable skill set. He regularly has a contact rate in the high-70s and a hit rate in the neighborhood of 30 percent. He set career highs in BA and HR last year, and while he should be able to produce similar numbers again, it seems likely he is maxed out in those areas.

Jones has terrific athletic tools and should produce at a much higher level than he has, but his offensive skills are pretty marginal. He has poor plate discipline and pitch recognition skills at the plate. His contact rate is less than 80 percent in his big league career and he doesn’t walk often enough (around 5 percent). His production seems capped at around 20 HR and 70 RBI.

Markakis has put together back-to-back seasons with an 85 percent contact rate and has regularly posted a hit rate of 32 percent and higher, but his home run rate has fallen steadily since 2007. At 27, there has to be some question as to the reason(s) for the drop-off. His power outage started about the time the league started vigorous testing for performance-enhancing-drugs. No accusation…just sayin’.

The pitching staff

Rotation: RHP Jeremy Guthrie, LHP Brian Matusz, RHP Justin Duchscherer, RHP Brad Bergeson and RHP Jake Arrieta

Closer: RHP Koji Uehara

Guthrie’s ugly 2009 season now appears to have been an outlier.

He has posted a sub-30 hit rate in each of the last four seasons, and his struggles in 2009 can likely be explained by a low strand rate (of only 69 percent). Orioles’ fans shouldn’t get too excited by last year’s second-half performance, as it was driven by an unsustainable hit rate (25 percent) and strand rate (77 percent). Expect 11 or 12 wins and an ERA in the vicinity of 3.75, but no more than that in the AL East.

Matusz’s performance last season demonstrates that better days lie ahead.

He won seven games and posted a 3.96 ERA in the second half—with six of those wins coming in his last 10 starts. His hit rate (30 percent) was about where you would expect it would be, but his strand rate (70 percent) and command (2.3 K-BB ratio) were lower than should be expected. These are two areas the club can expect improvement in the upcoming years.

Duchscherer has been routinely brilliant when healthy. Alas, his health (elbow, hip) has kept him off the field for most of the last five years. Only once in his career did he pitch as many as 140 innings (he was 10-8, 2.54 in 22 starts for the Oakland A’s in 2008). In the other four years since 2006, he pitched a grand total of 100 innings and missed all of 2009 and was shut down early last year due to hip woes.

Bergesen had a good rookie campaign in 2009, but was unable to sustain his performance in his sophomore season.

He got off to a miserable start, posting a 6.82 ERA over the first three months of the season. He showed marked improvement after the hiring of manager Buck Showalter, but I don’t believe his late-season improvement is sustainable as it was based on a 27 percent hit rate and 76 percent strand rate. When those peripherals regress to league-average, his ERA should settle into the high-4.00’s.

Arrieta had tremendous difficulty in his first experience against big league competition, and his peripherals indicate the Orioles can expect more of the same—or worse—in the 2011 season. He compiled a 4.66 ERA while benefitting from an unsustainable hit rate (28 percent) and an above-average strand rate (75 percent). Assuming those metrics revert to league-average, his ERA should increase to 5.00-plus in 2011.

Uehara will battle former Marlins, Cubs and Blue Jays closer Gregg to assume the closer’s role. Gregg has 121 saves over the last four seasons, but I believe Uehara is the guy who will emerge victorious.

Gregg walks too many hitters (4.2 BB / 9IP over the last two years) to hold onto the job, while Uehara exhibits outstanding control, walking just one batter for every nine innings pitched while striking out in excess of one hitter for each inning (11.3 K / 9IP).

Prediction for 2011: 5th place (75-87)

The MLB odds indicate the Orioles will be improved in 2011, and I can see no reason to disagree with that consensus. The organization is generally heading in the right direction, but they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. With the Blue Jays also headed in the right direction, it could be some time before the O’s even crawl out of the cellar in the AL East.

Top Five Prospects

1. Manny Machado, SS
2. Zach Britton, RHP
3. Dan Klein, RHP
4. Mychal Givens, SS
5. Ryan Adams, 3B

Machado and Britton are the class of a farm system largely bereft of high-end talent. He was the Orioles first-round pick (No. 3) overall last year.

The 18-year-old Machado earned recognition from Baseball America as a High School All-American on the strength of a senior season in which he compiled a .639 average, with 12 HR and 17 SB for Brito Miami Private High School. The Orioles gave him $5.25 million to forego a scholarship to Florida International.

At 6’3,” 185 lbs, he is a potential five-tool performer at shortstop. He has excellent swing mechanics and good bat speed, and he regularly makes solid contact. He has the potential to be an excellent defender, with solid range, excellent hands and a “plus” arm. While his footwork needs refinement, he has shown a great capacity for learning and incorporating the lessons into his skill set. He could be in Baltimore as soon as 2013.

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Kansas City Royals (2010 record: 67-95)

Kansas City is one more year away from beginning their slow, inexorable climb up the standings. While Royals fans have heard similar promises for years, their patience is finally (mercifully) about to pay off. GM Dayton Moore and his front office staff have developed a farm system that is rated tops in the game – stocked with prospects who are expected to make a significant impact in the major leagues within the next two or three years. They will start to feed those prospects to the parent club in full force this year.

In anticipation of the impending influx of talent from the minors, Moore & Company have stocked the club’s roster with journeymen and retreads… guys who are little more than place-holders until the minor leaguers arrive, and who will be expendable at that point in time. The roster is due for a substantial overhaul in the next two seasons, with Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Will Myers and several pitchers (notably Jeremy Jeffress, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi) due to join the major league club.

The Royals are on the brink of credibility, KC fans, but you’ll have to endure one more year of struggles before hitting paydirt.

Notable additions: OF Melky Cabrera, OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, 3B Pedro Feliz, LHP Jeff Francis, OF Jeff Francoeur, RHP Jeremy Jeffress

Notable subtractions: SP Brian Bannister, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF David DeJesus, RHP Zack Greinke

The offense

Catcher: Brayan Pena

Infield: Kila Ka’aihue (1B), Chris Getz (2B), Alcides Escobar (SS) and Mike Aviles (3B)

Outfield: Alex Gordon (LF), Melky Cabrera (CF) and Jeff Francoeur (RF)

Designated Hitter: Billy Butler

Butler is the undisputed leader of the offense – at just 24 years of age – which both speaks highly of him and underscores the plight of an otherwise punch-less offense. He is one of better hitters in the game, yet doesn’t qualify as a true power hitter. Last year, he set career highs in BA, OBP and OPS, yet he was still perceived as having underachieved due to the fact he hit only 15 home runs.

Once upon a time, Alex Gordon was thought to be the future of the Royals franchise. He was named the College Player of the Year in 2005 and Minor League Player of the Year in 2006, but somewhere between Omaha and Kansas City his power was short-circuited. He was moved from third base to left field last year, but he has failed to demonstrate the productive capacity needed from a corner outfielder. He could be on his way out of KC before long.

Similarly, Francoeur was once considered the future of the Atlanta Braves franchise. He was the organization’s top prospect in 2004 and thought to have a tremendous career on the horizon… but his overall production hasn’t matched his potential. He hit 29 HR in his first full season in the big leagues (’06) and won a Gold Glove the following year, but his career has been on a downward spiral since. He was shipped to the NY Mets in 2009 and then traded to the Texas Rangers in August of last year. It seems unlikely his career will suddenly revive itself in Kansas City.

Melky Cabrera enjoyed a career year in the New Yankee Stadium softball field back in 2009, taking advantage of its cozy dimensions to post a respectable OPS. But after being cast out of the Bronx, he has regressed to a rather poor skill set. He will begin the 2011 season as the starter in center field, but it is likely Lorenzo Cain will take over by June 1st – at the latest.

Around the infield, four younger ballplayers will vie to have substantial roles with the team once the top minor league prospects start arriving. Ka’aihue will undoubtedly be displaced by Eric Hosmer at first base, but it’s possible he’ll provide more power than Butler – forcing the front office to make a hard decision between the two. Mike Aviles will start the year at third base, but he will soon be moved off the hot corner by Mike Moustakas no later than mid-season. He and Chris Getz will spend April, May and June trying to lay claim to the second base job after Moose’s arrival.

Alcides Escobar was acquired in the same deal that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee. He was long on glove and short on bat last year as a rookie. His minor league stats suggest he will be a productive shortstop in the major leagues… with the departure of Yuniesky Betancourt, the job is his for the immediate future.

Brayan Pena will hold down the primary responsibilities behind the plate until veteran Jason Kendall returns from shoulder surgery in mid-to-late-May. Pena should produce nicely with the increased playing time he will receive while Kendall recovers.

The pitching staff

Rotation: RHP Luke Hochevar, LHP Jeff Francis, LHP Bruce Chen, RHP Kyle Davies and RHP Vin Mazzaro

Closer: RHP Joakim Soria

The staff won’t be especially good in 2011, but with the arrivals of Lamb, Montgomery and Odorizzi (Milwaukee’s stop prospect prior to the Greinke deal) the rotation is on the verge of becoming formidible.

With the trade of Greinke, Hochevar will assume the role of staff ace – at least until the young guns make their way to KC. The big right-hander has been a BIG disappointment since being selected with the No. 1 overall pick in 2006, but his skill set shows marginal growth – so there is some hope he could develop into a consistent performer at the back of the rotation. That said, his strand rate continues at well below-average – a factor that now seems to be a chronic condition, not just bad luck.

Francis won 17 games for Colorado when the Rockies went to the World Series in 2001, but he has battled an assortment of injuries over the last three years. He has been pretty good when he has been healthy – compiling a nice strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.5 and an improving ground ball rate (47%).

Mazzaro could become the second-best performer on this staff pending the arrival of the young guns. His fate in 2011 and beyond will be determined by how he transitions from the relatively spacious playing field of Oakland Coliseum to the smaller area of Kaufman Stadium. He has a friendly ground ball to fly ball ratio – so the ballpark factor shouldn’t exert a dramatic impact on his performance (unless he has the same kind of bad luck he had last year, when his home run rate (HR/fb) was 12%).

Chen led the ballclub by recording 12 wins last year, but his peripherals clearly disclose he was the beneficiary of good luck as opposed to the owner of an outstanding skill set. His K-BB ratio is less than 2.0 – my minimum standard for an effective starting pitcher and well-below my desired threshold of 2.5. He walks too many batter (3.5 / 9 IP) and surrenders far too many fly balls for a pitcher who issues so many bases on balls.

Davies is a right-handed version of Chen. He has a substandard K-BB ratio, largely due to the fact he walks too many hitters. While his ground ball to fly ball ratio is friendlier, he tends to allow a higher than league-average home run rate – a fact which can be very dangerous for a pitcher who issues four walks for every nine innings pitched.

Soria recorded 43 saves in 46 save opportunities last year and has cemented himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He regularly posts a K-BB ratio in excess of 9.0 and benefited from better control in 2010 (2.2 BB / 9 IP) than he had previously in his career. He will almost certainly produce another 40+ save season, with an ERA around 2.00 and a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.00 – 1.10. Behind Soria, the bullpen has been brutal for the last several years, but that could change in 2011. He could have improved support as the Royals have some young power arms on the verge of breaking through at the big league level. RHP Jeremy Jeffress, acquired in the Greinke deal, may be the heir apparent to Soria as closer. Lefty Tim Collins is a fire-baller who has been compared to Billy Wagner. Otherwise, RHP Robinson Tejeda is the best of a marginal collection of veteran relievers.

Prediction for 2011: Fourth place (75-87)

The Royals will be better this year and should improve as the progresses as some of the prospects make their way to the parent club. By mid-season, Moustakas will be playing third base and Hosmer c-o-u-l-d be stationed at first base – though his promotion that early is less certain due to the presence of hard-hitting Ka’aihue in the Royals lineup. In the second half of the season, pitching prospects like Lamb and Montgomery (and even Danny Duffy) could force their way onto a pitching staff that will be devoid of stars.

Top Five Prospects

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B
2. Wil Myers, C/LF
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B
4. Mike Montgomery, RHP
5. John Lamb, LHP

Depending on which publication you read, the top three on this list are interchangeable, but my preference is Moustakas. Myers is still a ways away from The Show and has to endure a position switch to the outfield, while Hosmer may be blocked by Ka’aihue for the next year or two. Meanwhile, Moustakas’ road to Kansas City is clear, and while the organization appears committed to giving him another couple of months in Triple-A, he will be in the big leagues by the all-star break. He was the Royals first-round pick (No. 2 overall) in the 2007 draft. He was outstanding in his first full year of professional ball in 2008, but struggled quite a bit the following year after making the jump to High-A. Any worries about his potential were cast aside last year as he bludgeoned Double-A pitchers to the tune of .347/.413/.687 and then barely missed a beat after his promotion to Triple-A Omaha, posting an impressive .293/.314/564 line in 52 games.

He has become more selective at the plate, allowing himself to consistently work better pitch counts where he can exert his plus-power on the baseball. He generates exceptional bat speed and can hit the ball out of the park to any field. Defensively, he continues to be a work in progress, as his footwork and mechanics are erratic, but he has good hands and a strong arm… his deficiencies are nothing that a lot of hard work can’t correct. He will prove to be everything Alex Gordon wasn’t – he is the Royals 3B-of-the-future.

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Cleveland Indians (2010 record: 69-93)

If there is little reason to buy a ticket in Houston, there is even less reason to buy a ticket in Cleveland. The Indians did very little this winter in terms of improving the roster…and since everyone else in the division is as good or better than they were last year, the upcoming campaign is not looking promising.

Cleveland finished last in the big leagues in attendance last year and then reduced payroll. If you’re an Indians fans and you’re looking for a reason to go see the club in person, you can rationalize the expenditure by telling yourself that this year will be your last chance to see Grady Sizemore or Fausto Carmona in an Indians uniform, as both will almost-certainly be dealt sometime this season (assuming good health). Otherwise, there is really no reason to go to the ballpark. Watch them on television until they produce a club worthy of your hard-earned dollars!

Okay, so I am prone to a bit of hyperbole—but only a little bit! OF Shin-Soo Choo and C Carlos Santana are obviously good reasons to go see the Indians, but the rest of the team promises to be below-average, unless someone has a career year. I’m sorry to be a pessimist, but I call ‘em like I see ‘em.

In 2007, the Indians were just a win away from going to the World Series, but at this point, that accomplishment seems like a distant memory. Faced with expected big-money demands from impending free agents, the franchise began trading its stars for prospects. Sabathia. Lee. V-Mart. Sizemore and Carmona are next.

The youth movement may bear fruit…but it won’t be this year.

Notable additions: OF Travis Buck, IF Orlando Cabrera, OF Austin Kearns

Notable subtractions: 3B Andy Marte

The offense:

Catcher: Carlos Santana

Infield: Matt LaPorta (1B), Orlando Cabrera (2B), Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) and Jack Hannahan (3B)

Outfield: Michael Brantley (LF), Grady Sizemore (CF) and Shin-Soo Choo (RF)

Designated Hitter: Travis Hafner

Sizemore missed most of last season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his left knee, and now comes word he will not be ready to open the 2011 season. After major knee surgery, it is unlikely he will ever again be the player he was in 2005-08. But at this point, the Tribe would probably be thrilled if he could approximate the player he was back in 2009 (,248, 18 HR, 64 RBI and 13 SB).

Choo followed up his breakout 2009 season by posting substantially identical numbers in 2010. Now freed from anxieties relating to compulsory service in South Korea, it is likely he will build on his .300 / 21 HR / 88 RBI average season (over the last two years).

Brantley, 23, earned himself some playing time as part of a platoon coming out of spring training last year but was awful in the month of April (.156 in 32 AB)…in the process, he earned himself a demotion to Triple-A. After getting things worked out in Columbus, he returned to the Indians in July and was much better after the All-Star break. He hit .292 in August and September and earned himself another shot at the starting gig this year, but if he struggles, veteran Austin Kearns is waiting in the wings. He’ll be on a short leash.

Santana’s arrival in Cleveland was highly anticipated, and he was thrust into the middle of the lineup from the moment he was promoted to The Show. He appeared to be well on his way to living up to the hype until he suffered a season-ending knee injury on a play at the plate in Boston (lateral collateral ligament). Like Sizemore, he had serious knee surgery, but he should be in the lineup on Opening Day barring any unforeseen setbacks.

LaPorta was one of baseball’s most highly-rated prospects when he was with the Brewers back in 2008 and ultimately became the centerpiece of the trade that sent CC Sabathia to cheese country. Thus far, he has been a bust in Cleveland, hitting just .232, with 19 HR and 62 RBI over parts of two seasons (557 AB). The Indians need him to become the run producer they thought they were getting when they made the trade.

Across the diamond, the Indians and their fans are awaiting the much-anticipated arrival of Lonnie Chisenhall, so no matter who gets the nod coming out of spring training, they’ll just be a place holder. Jack Hannahan will be the starter when the season gets underway, but I expect Chisenhall will arrive by mid-July and lay claim to the job for many years to come.

The middle infield is more settled with the arrival of Orlando Cabrera, who will take over at second base for Jason Donald and Luis Valbuena. OC has bounced around quite a bit over the last few years, but he will be a steady veteran presence on a very young ballclub. This may prove to be another one-and-done scenario for him, as Jason Kipnis (rated the Indians No. 3 prospect by baseball America) should be ready to take over by next spring. At shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera (no relation to Orlando) will return as the starter. He missed more than two months last year with a broken arm and his numbers suffered accordingly. While he won’t put up All-Star stats, he should be good for .275/8/60 in 2011.

Travis Hafner is another aging veteran the front office would love to be able to deal, but his performance has deteriorated to such a degree over the last few years that it’s unlikely another team would surrender anything of value for him. At this point, he is just another .275/12/50, DH-only player—one who hasn’t hit a home run in spring training in spite of facing a bunch of pitchers who won’t make a major league roster in 2011.

The pitching staff

Rotation: RHP Fausto Carmona, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Mitch Talbot, RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Josh Tomlin

Closer: RHP Chris Perez

Carmona returns as the de facto ace of a young rotation that has limited ability, but it is very likely he won’t finish the year with the club. He appeared destined to be a front-of-the-rotation horse back in 2007, when he won 19 games and posted a 3.06 ERA, but he has been unable to follow up with anything close to that level of performance since then.

Last year wasn’t bad, but he benefited from a low hit rate (28%) and still failed to post a respectable strikeout-to-walk ratio (it was just 1.7-to-1). The front office hopes he starts hot in the hope of finding a trade partner that would surrender one good prospect. If that happens, it’s adios Fausto.

Disclosure: Justin Masterson and I became friendly when he played in Boston, so take my assessment with a grain of salt if you will, but I still believe he has the potential to be a solid winner as part of a big league rotation. I have read several assessments this winter suggesting he belongs in the bullpen, but IMO his underlying skill set screams that he’ll be a successful starter in the right situation.

He gets opposing hitters to beat the ball into the ground—he compiled a brilliant 60% gb rate last year. He strikes out more than seven batters for every nine innings pitched. And he has been the recipient of some VERY bad luck—his BABIP over the last two years has been .323 and .327, which may say as much about the infield defense behind him as it does about his abilities. He is one of my top-10 sleepers for 2011.

Carrasco has the potential to be a decent big league starter. Like Masterson, he induces more than his fair share of grounders (57% gb rate) and should strike out seven-plus runners for every nine innings pitched… though he exhibits better control than Masterson. His main problem seems to be a penchant for giving up too many home runs (his equalized HR/fb rate over the last two seasons has been nearly 15%). He should produce double-digit wins and a 4.10-4.20 ERA if all goes well.

In my opinion, last year is about as good as it gets for Talbot and Tomlin. Talbot walks far too many hitters and doesn’t strike out enough batters to compensate for his lack of control. Tomlin has decent command is a fly-ball pitcher prone to giving up too many home runs. They should both win eight or nine games and post an ERA in the mid-to-high fours, but I don’t see either doing much more than that without some improvement in the skill set.

Perez wrested control of the closer’s job in the second half and showed no sign of giving it up, but there is lots to worry about here, as well. Historically, he has walked too many batters to be effective in the closer’s role over the long term (4.5 / 9 IP). Additionally, in 2010 he benefitted from an incredibly low hit rate (24%) and an other-worldly strand rate (88%). These rates are not sustainable unless your name is Mariano Rivera, so expect he will see considerable regression in 2011. That said, he has walked just one batter while striking out eight in his first 7.1 IP in spring training (though he has hit two batters). If he can sustain that kind of control, it would go a long way in balancing out regression in his hit and strand rates.

Prediction for 2011: fifth place (60-102)

This is a bad team in an improving division. The Royals will zoom past the Indians this year, leaving the Tribe to wallow in the mud of last place, and it’s entirely possible they will earn the title as “the worst team in baseball.” It is possible (nay, likely!) that they will be worse than league-average at seven of the nine spots in the lineup (save, Santana and Choo)…and it is possible they could go through the season without a single 10-game winner on the pitching staff (only Tomlin has an ERA of less than 4.50 in spring training).

But hope is on the distant horizon. I like the organization’s top-five prospects (below)—as a group—more than I like the top-five prospects for most teams. In my opinion, it is possible that Chisenhall, Pomeranz and White could develop into future MLB all-stars.

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Top Five Prospects:

1. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
2. Drew Pomeranz, LHP
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Kipnis, 2B
5. Nick Weglarz, OF

Chisenhall was drafted in the first round (29th overall) of the ‘08 first year player draft after hitting .410 at Pitt (NC) CC that spring. His stock likely slid, due to questions about his character after he was caught stealing computer equipment and $3,100 in cash during his freshman year at South Carolina—prompting his expulsion from school. But Indians AGM John Mirabelli knows SC coach Ray Tanner and apparently was able to quell fears about Chisenhall’s character within the Cleveland organization.

He is considered one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues, though based on all of the plaudits, I would have expected him to hit better than .278 at Akron (Double-A). He has a simple swing, excellent bat speed and routinely makes solid contact. He projects to have average power—or slightly better—in the big leagues and should hit 20 homers on a regular basis.

Defensively, he played shortstop in college but didn’t possess the requisite skills to play there in the big leagues, so he switched to third base—where he is considered to be an average fielder, with decent range and arm strength. He should be in Cleveland sometime after midseason, though it’s possible he could earn an earlier recall (if he plays well and the combination of Hannahan/Nix/Donald don’t get the job done in the big leagues).

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Texas Rangers (2010 record: 90-72)

The Texas Rangers won their first American League pennant, but eventually lost the World Series to the San Francisco Giants. Their drive to the Fall Classic was spurred by an MVP season from LF Josh Hamilton, a Rookie of the Year campaign from closer Neftali Feliz, and all-star efforts from five players.

The defending American League champions lost southpaw Cliff Lee through free agency this winter. It seems to me that Lee’s loss, in combination with the loss of several quality prospects they traded to Seattle in exchange for him, will be difficult to overcome in the short term.

The Rangers needed another starting pitcher after his departure, and while Brandon Webb may prove to be a nice addition, he’s more likely to be this year’s version of Rich Harden. I expected the front office to jump on Carl Pavano once Lee bid them adieu, and I suspect they may regret not jumping in on him.

Notable additions: 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Arthur Rhodes, C Yorvit Torrealba and RHP Brandon Webb.

Notable subtractions: DH Vladimir Guerrero, LHP Cliff Lee, C Bengie Molina.

Offense

Catcher: Mike Napoli

Infield: Mitch Moreland (1B), Ian Kinsler (2B), Elvis Andrus (SS) and Adrian Beltre (3B)

Outfield: Josh Hamilton (LF), Julio Borbon (CF) and Nelson Cruz (RF)

Designated Hitter: Michael Young

The offense will be formidable if it can remain healthy. Nearly all of the key contributors have had trouble remaining on the playing field throughout an entire season.

The attack will again be led by a pair of oft-injured corner outfielders—Josh Hamilton, the reigning AL MVP, and Nelson Cruz, who would almost certainly be an MVP candidate in if he remained healthy for an entire season.

Hamilton has alternated healthy and injury-plagued seasons, but when healthy has produced outstanding numbers, as evidenced by last year’s OPS+ of 175.

Cruz has yet to accumulate 500 ABs in any single season. Last year, he was limited to 108 games by a hamstring injury. His .318 batting average was driven by a 35 percent hit rate—that should correct down to about 30 percent with a corresponding dip in his average (to the .260-.270 range).

Third baseman Adrian Beltre produced an outstanding effort during his lone season in Boston, earning him a six-year, $96 million deal with the Rangers. He has hit .265 or better, with 25-plus HR and 75-plus RBI, in four of his last five seasons. He has outstanding career numbers at Rangers Ballpark, posting a .306 BA and .521 slugging percentage in 51 career games.

DH Michael Young has been pinballed from second base to shortstop to third base during his Rangers career, and with the acquisition of Adrian Beltre he has now been removed from the field all together. He made it known he is not happy with this latest development and the team has attempted to trade him (and his $16 million per year salary).

Whether he spends the year in Arlington or elsewhere, he is a consistent contributor on offense, having amassed a .300 career average, 158 HR and 811 RBI.

Elvis Andrus will not provide much in the way of power or production atop the Rangers lineup (his 6 HR in 2009 were most likely an outlier), but the young shortstop has exhibited excellent plate discipline during his first two seasons in the big leagues.

He will likely hit somewhere around league-average (.270), but his walk rate (10 percent) should enable him to post consistently-solid OBPs. He has excellent speed and base-stealing instincts (65 SB in 2009-10), and should score somewhere in the vicinity of 100 runs with Young, Hamilton, Cruz and Beltre hitting behind him.

Second baseman Ian Kinsler made two trips to the disabled list last year. He struggled to hit home runs at the pace his team had become accustomed, but otherwise compiled strong statistics. He posted a .286/.378/.412 line on the season.

Mike Napoli comes to town from division rival Los Angeles, by way of Toronto. The front office hopes he will stabilize a catching situation that has been in flux for the last couple of years. He has 20-plus home run power, but has had trouble making contact (just a 71 percent contact rate over the last four seasons) and struck out a career-high 137 times last year. He has hit less than .250 in three of his five seasons in the big leagues.

When Justin Smoak was shipped off to Seattle in the Cliff Lee deal, the Rangers turned to rookie Mitch Moreland at first base. They liked what they saw of him in the regular season, when he hit .255 with 9 HR in just 145 AB. They subsequently included him on the postseason roster. He rose to the challenge, hitting .348 with 7 RBI in 15 games.

Julio Borbon got off to a slow start last season, but improved as the year progressed. The fleet-footed center fielder was asked to incorporate the bunt into his offensive game and he responded with 17 bunt singles. This year, I suspect he will be asked to steal more bases, as he has the speed to steal 50-plus bases.

Pitching Staff

Rotation: LHP CJ Wilson, RHP Colby Lewis, RHP Tommy Hunter, RHP Derek Holland and RHP Brandon Webb.

Closer: RHP Neftali Feliz.

CJ Wilson moved from the closer’s role into the rotation and had great success. The southpaw went 15-8, with a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, last year while striking out 170 hitters in 204 IP. With the departure of Cliff Lee, he is the unquestioned ace of the staff.

Righty Colby Lewis returned to the US last year after spending two year in Japan (he went 26-17, 2.82, in two seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball). When all was said and done, he may have been the biggest surprise in the major leagues in 2010, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 201 IP. It was the most strikeouts recorded by a Rangers pitcher since Nolan Ryan had 203 K in 1991.

Tommy Hunter went 13-4, 3.73, as a starter last year, largely based on luck (27 percent hit rate and 75 percent strand rate) and getting more than six runs per game in offensive support.

I have questions as to whether he’ll develop into a consistent winner in the big leagues. His gb-fb ratio sits at 50-50, which isn’t the formula for success in Rangers Ballpark. He issues a fair number of walks and doesn’t miss enough bats to get out of difficulty when it presents itself.

There seems to be some debate about whether Matt Harrison or Derek Holland should be in the rotation, but it seems obvious to me that Holland should be the choice here.

Harrison’s numbers are pedestrian, and his walk rate is trending in the wrong direction. He had excellent peripherals early last year, and while he showed rust after returning from knee and shoulder woes, his early-season performance showed considerably more potential than Harrison has shown of late.

The last slot in the rotation should go to former Arizona ace Brandon Webb when he gets healthy—or maybe I should say, IF he gets healthy. The big righty has tremendous stuff, but he has made just one start over the last two years due to shoulder troubles.

The Rangers toyed with the idea of moving Feliz into the starting rotation this year, and while they have moved him back to the closer’s role the front office has said he will join the rotation next season. While he initially resisted the switch to the rotation, he later embraced the idea of his new role in the rotation.

For now, he will return to the bullpen as a dominant closer, with a fastball that regularly sits at 96 to 98 mph—with the ability to hit 100 mph. He has a good curveball that will cause knees to buckle on occasion, but it will flatten out and become hittable if he does not stay on top of it, or if he lowers his arm angle. His changeup is a work in progress.

Opposing batters get the ball in the air nearly half of the time when they make contact against him, and Rangers Ballpark is not a place where you want to give up a lot of fly balls.

Prediction for 2011: 1st place (92-70)

The Rangers should be good enough to repeat as division champs, but the road may be more difficult. For all of the talk about Cliff Lee, the Rangers accomplished what they did in 2010 without him, and when he arrived he was just 4-6, 3.98, in 15 starts—hardly the stuff of a Cy Young winner.

The offense will once again be very strong, if the lineup can stay relatively healthy.

Ultimately, the team’s success in 2011 will be predicated on the pitching staff—whether Webb can get (and stay) healthy, whether Lewis can repeat last year’s surprising performance, whether Hunter and Holland can develop into consistent performers, and whether the bullpen can repeat last year’s success (when their 3.38 ERA was good enough for second in the league).

If the answer to many or most of these questions is in the negative, then it is entirely possible the Athletics will overtake the Rangers for the division crown.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Tanner Scheppers, RHP
2. Martin Perez, LHP
3. Jurickson Profar, SS
4. Michael Kirkman, LHP
5. Engel Beltre, OF

Scheppers entered the 2008 college season as a highly-touted prospect at Fresno State, projected to go in the top ten in the June draft, but a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely and he dropped down to the second round. He did not sign and eventually played in the independent American Association. He was then chosen in the supplemental phase of the first round in 2009 and signed with the Rangers for $1.25 million.

The club kept him in the bullpen last year to protect his shoulder. While the front office says his future is as a starter, it is possible he may end up in the bullpen for the immediate future.

The big league club needs a closer and he has the stuff to be the successor to Neftali Feliz in that role. He has a four-seam fastball that sits at 95 to 97 mph and will tickle 100 mph when he works out of the bullpen. He has two off-speed pitches which are considered to be “plus” pitches (curve ball and slider). His fastball and slider are both considered to be potentially dominant pitches.

No matter which role the club eventually defines for him, he will need to work on the consistency of his mechanics and his release point. The sky is the limit, whether he is in the rotation or the bullpen.

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Oakland Athletics (2010 record: 81-81)

The Oakland Athletics finished last season with a .500 record after three consecutive losing seasons. They were able to do so thanks largely to an excellent young rotation, a good bullpen and a solid defense. Little of what they accomplished was owed to their offense—which finished 11th in the league in runs scored.

In an effort to improve the offensive attack, the front office bid adieu to DH Jack Cust and outfielder Rajai Davis and replaced them with DH Hideki Matsui and outfielders David DeJesus and Josh Willingham.

I’m not sure I would have cut ties with Davis, who is just starting to reach his potential, but Billy Beane and company probably saw him as redundant due to the presence of Coco Crisp. Willingham and Matsui should provide quite a bit more power to a lineup devoid of power bats.

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Seattle Mariners (2010 record: 61-101)

Many pundits believed the Mariners could win the American League West last season—I am numbered among those people. The joke was on us.

Instead of making a run at the Angels and the Rangers, the Mariners turned in one of the more disappointing efforts in major league history, going 61-101.

In the process, the club became the first team with a $100 million-plus payroll to lose 100 games in a season.

The primary culprit? An offense that averaged just 3.2 runs per game, finishing last in the league in runs while scoring 100 runs fewer than the next worst offense (Baltimore).

GM Jack Zduriencik seems to have gotten the message. The ballclub made several upgrades to the lineup—not that the new players are going to vault the offense to the top of the league or even league average.

Notable additions: OF/DH Jack Cust, 2B Adam Kennedy, C Miguel Olivo, SS Brendan Ryan

Notable subtractions: 1B Russell Branyan, INF Jose Lopez

The offense:

Catcher: Miguel Olivo

Infield: Justin Smoak (1B), Brendan Ryan (2B), Jack Wilson (SS) and Chone Figgins (3B)

Outfield: Michael Saunders (LF), Franklin Gutierrez (CF) and Ichiro Suzuki (RF)

Designated Hitter: Jack Cust

The offense scored fewer runs than any team in a full season since 1972. Afterwards, the front office bid adieu to Branyan (.215 BA), Kotchman (.217) and Lopez (.239 BA), and put Adam Moore (.195) on the bench.

In their place, the team will field Smoak, who was acquired at last year’s trade deadline, Cust (.272, with 13 HR last year), Brendan Ryan (career .259 average) and Olivo (who hit .269 with 14 HR last year). Granted, the lineup isn’t suddenly filled with All Stars, but it will be better than it was last season.

Smoak struggled in his first full season in the big leagues (.218 BA), but his minor league pedigree (he has a career .404 OBP) suggests that he will prosper in The Show.

Cust will provide basically the same production as Branyan, with a better batting average and a 15-point increase in OPS+.

Ryan has the potential to develop into a league average hitter while providing outstanding defense, while Lopez never reached the level of productivity that was projected for him.

Olivo provides a veteran presence behind the plate and will be a substantial improvement on Moore…he is, as they say, addition by subtraction. While he won’t necessarily be a substantial force on offense, he will not be a black hole, either.

The organization may also be in the process of addressing another of its offensive issues, as Ryan may well slide to shortstop to replace Josh Wilson (.229) in the lineup. He is just as capable on defense, and his move to shortstop would allow Adam Kennedy (who owns a .275 career BA) to move into the lineup at second base until Dustin Ackley is ready to join the M’s at midseason.

Figgins submitted his worst offensive performance as a big leaguer last year (.259, with one HR and 35 RBI in 602 AB), a result which may have been related to his switch to second base. It wasn’t the kind of performance Zduriencik expected when he handed him a $34.5 million contract last winter. He will move back to third base in 2011, and I expect the move will result in dramatically improved offense.

Franklin Gutierrez has had a roller coaster career thus far, sandwiching a good offensive season between two subpar campaigns. While the center fielder is coming off one of his lesser years, I foresee improvement from him in 2011.

He makes decent contact (a career 77 percent contact rate) and his down seasons were largely based on bad luck (he had a 30 percent hit rate both seasons). Assuming even a marginal increase in that number, he should hit closer to .270, with 15 HR and 70 RBI (plus or minus).

Left field is up in the air. Michael Saunders will have first shot at winning the job, but after hitting just .211 last year, his hold on the job is tenuous at best. Milton Bradley is waiting in the wings if Saunders falls on his face, but MB has had more than his fair share of personal problems throughout his career and he isn’t the answer over the long term.

And that leaves just Ichiro to discuss—and what is there that can be said about him that hasn’t already been said. While he is getting a little long in the tooth, he just keeps on ticking. He arrived in the US amid much fanfare in 2001, after having hit .340 or higher over seven straight seasons in Japan.

He has had 200 or more hits in each of his 10 seasons in the United States, hitting .300, making the All Star team and earning a Gold Glove each year, winning three Silver Slugger Awards and being selected as MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2001. There isn’t much more he can do, except to keep doing what he has ALWAYS done.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: RHP Felix Hernandez, LHP Jason Vargas, RHP Doug Fister, LHP Erik Bedard and RHP Michael Pineda

Closer: RHP David Aardsma

“King Felix” Hernandez is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. While he went just 13-12 last season, he posted a career-best 2.27 ERA and 1.057 WHIP and earned the Cy Young Award. If he had received any semblance of run support he would have won 20-plus games.

Vargas went 9-12, with a 3.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while pitching nearly 200 innings last year. It was clearly the best season of his young career, but it seems likely that he will not be able to repeat that performance moving forward. He is a finesse guy who pitches to contact and gives up a lot of fly balls.

While the fly balls won’t necessarily hurt him in spacious Safeco Field, they could be his undoing on the road. Last year’s success was driven by a 28 percent hit rate. When that number regresses to 32 percent (+/-) his ERA will approach 4.50.

Fister, likewise, pitches to contact. While he doesn’t surrender a lot of fly balls, he is not going to blow people away (4.9 K-rate). He induces a fair number of ground balls, and thus his productivity will be closely tied to the quality of his infield defense, and luck (his hit rate and strand rates will have to be favorable for him to succeed as a member of the starting rotation).

Bedard has been a bust in Seattle, but he still has the stuff to be one of the better pitchers in baseball when he’s healthy. The problem is that he hasn’t made more than 15 starts in either of his first three seasons with Seattle (he did not pitch at all last season).

Still, he posted a 5-3 record and a 2.82 ERA in 2009, clearly showing he retains the kind of skills he had in Baltimore when the Mariners acquired him for five players, including OF Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill, top pitching prospect Chris Tillman and two others.

Pineda is the organization’s top prospect. Last year, he went 11-4, 3.36, between Double A and Triple A. He will start the year in the M’s rotation and should secure a permanent job with the big club as long as he throws strikes.

Closer Aardsma (hip) will be on the shelf at the start of the season, with Brandon League filling in for the first few weeks. Aardsma’s skill set is somewhat marginal… his success in Seattle was created on an extremely low hit rate (25 percent) over his first two years.

He gives up LOTS of fly balls, which often is not a favorable indication for closers. He’ll likely see some increase in his hit rate, which will cause his overall numbers to decline.

Prediction for 2011: 4th place (60-102)

I have actually downgraded my expectations for the Mariners over the last two months. The more I examine the numbers, the more likely it appears they will be a little worse this year as opposed to a little better.

The offense will be marginally better this season, but that isn’t saying very much, and a few more runs won’t be nearly enough to make the team respectable. As I wrote previously, even a sizable increase of 99 runs scored would still leave them in last place in the AL in runs.

No, the issue this year is going to be on the mound.

Hernandez will be the foundation of a weak rotation. Cliff Lee was traded last summer, and his departure left the ballclub with a collection of castoffs to fill out the rotation. I expect Bedard will be healthy this year and finally provide the organization with a return on its sizable investment in him, but the rest of the rotation is problematic.

Pineda will be good, but he is a rookie and will have to go through the typical ups and downs of a rookie pitcher. Vargas and Fister will both see a regression in their peripherals…that which will cause them to have far less success than they had last year.

Aardsma won’t last the year as the team’s closer, and I suspect League won’t have much more success. Look for someone like Lueke or Dan Cortes to take over the closer’s role in the second half.

But by then it won’t matter for the M’s, except in terms of 2012.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Michael Pineda, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B
3. Nick Franklin, SS
4. Johermyn Chavez, OF
5. TiJuan Walker, RHP

Most people place Ackley atop their list of Mariners prospects and project him as a future superstar, but not me. I happen to like Pineda much better in terms of being an “impact player” over the next several years. While Ackley may be the safer bet, I personally think his upside is limited (.300 hitter, with marginal power, good speed and an average glove). Nothing about him screams “superstar” to me. Sorry, M’s fans.

On the other hand, I think Pineda will be an impactful starting pitcher who will slot into the M’s rotation right behind Hernandez by 2013. The 22-year-old has an explosive mid-90s fastball with lots of life that tops out at over 100 MPH.

He has improved both of his off speed pitches to the point where they are at least major league average. He has learned to stay on top of his slider more consistently, making it a second quality out pitch. He has also learned to maintain his arm speed on his changeup, in the process developing a pitch that will keep hitters honest.

Over the next couple of years he will refine his mechanics and learn to command the ball better (cutting down on walks and pinpointing the ball within the strike zone). And then, King Felix will once again be a part of a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation.

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There was an excellent article about Marco Scutaro in today’s Boston Globe. Columnist Nick Cafardo crafted an insightful story in which he detailed the shortstop’s health issues last season, providing a considerable amount of behind-the-scenes information that fans had not previously known. But does that mean Scutaro should be the Red Sox’ starting shortstop in 2011?

To a certain extent, Cafardo’s column comes across as a piece prepared by the Red Sox PR staff, an article the team would want to distribute in order to minimize (end?) the debate as to whether Scutaro or Jed Lowrie should be the starter when the season starts in Texas late next week. I’m sorry to sound cynical. While I know Dr Charles Steinberg has left the building, the column has the doc’s fingerprints all over it.

The Sox’s front office has had a horrible track record since dealing Nomar Garciaparra at the trade deadline in 2004. There has been a procession of shortstops go through the proverbial revolving door ever since: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, Alex Cora, Alex Gonzalez, Lowrie and Scutaro, among others.

I never understood the reasons Theo and Company dispatched Gonzalez last winter (and I argued at the time the decision was a drastic mistake)… the team preferred Scutaro and bestowed a two-year, $12.5 million contract on him.

Overall, his performance last year wasn’t especially good. But the truth of the matter is that it wasn’t especially bad, either. And the Cafardo column helps to put his struggles in context. A couple of weeks ago, we were spoon-fed the information that Scutaro dealt with a pinched nerve in his neck early in the year and that he dealt with it throughout the season. We also learned he experienced an on-going problem with his shoulder. Today we learned that his shoulder had actually atrophied:

Cafardo: “(H)e often showed reporters the difference in size between his biceps. It was amazing how he managed, but he fought through it.” (Like I said, it sounds like it was prepared by someone on the Red Sox paid to fluff and massage egos)

Scutaro said he played through considerable because he didn’t want to cede what he had worked so hard to achieve—“a chance to start in the Major Leagues.” Cafardo quoted Scutaro as saying: “I spent so much time on the bench (early in my big league career) that I always want to play.”

So he played.

He also played because of the succession of injuries that befell his teammates. Pedroia couldn’t play. Youkilis couldn’t play. Martinez couldn’t play. Ellsbury couldn’t play. But Scutaro could—it just hurt to do so. He sucked it up: “When you’re a little guy like me, you have to be tough. You don’t have any choice.’”

But does all of this mean he should be the starting shortstop in 2011? Opinions seem to be split on the subject. In my opinion, that is why the PR Machine is in overdrive—so people will accept the fact that Scutaro WILL be the starter, at least at the beginning of the season. (So sayeth the shepherd…)

I expect the organization will decide he is the best man for the job. After all, they will want to justify paying him more than $6 million this year. And since there doesn’t appear to be a clear favorite, they may as well play the veteran they are paying big bucks. But is it the right decision?

Scutaro has played in 990 games over nine seasons. He has a career stat line of .267/.336/.385; not especially impressive. But he has matured offensively as his career has progressed, and over the last two years he has hit .278, with 23 HR, 116 RBI and 192 R while compiling an OPS+ of 100. Defensively, he has typically been sub-standard (though he uncharacteristically posted a UZR of 17.8 in 2008). Last year, in spite of playing in tremendous pain, his UZR was a minus-2.9.

Meanwhile, Jed Lowrie has been hampered by a succession of injuries that has minimized his opportunities for playing time and left officials wondering if he will ever be healthy enough to play regularly. He has played 168 games over three seasons and compiled a career stat line of .253/.336/.425, including .287/.381/.526 last year (his 2010 BA, OBP and Slugging Percentage were each better than Scutaro has ever posted in any season). Last year he hit nine HR and drove in 24 runs in 171 AB. Defensively, his combined UZR over three years is 7.3 (minus-1.8 last year).

The club has an interest in playing Scutaro because it wants to justify his salary; but, they also have an interest in playing Lowrie because they need to find out what he can do—and with Jose Iglesias waiting in the wings to inherit the starting job next year, the club may want to build the Stanford grad’s trade value for next winter.

What’s a manager to do? Well, it says here that the club’s best option is to platoon the two players depending on who is on the mound.

A look at the player’s career splits show that Scutaro has been relatively consistent throughout his career against RHP and LHP… he has hit .271/.333/.379 against right-handers and .259/.344/.398 against southpaws. On the other hand, Lowrie has hit much better against lefties (.309/.417/.537) than he has against righties (.222/.290/.364).

So the answer to my question is both “yes” and “no.” In this instance, platooning makes a lot of sense from a statistical standpoint. Additionally, both players would spend most of the year in the right-hand batters box—not the worst thing that could happen on a team widely considered to be too left-handed. And then there is the argument that the periodic day off would help to keep Scutaro fresh throughout the entire season.

Scutaro would get most of the starts as there are more right-handed pitchers, but Lowrie would get the start Opening day in Texas (vs LHP CJ Wilson).

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New York Mets (2010 record: 79-83)

The NY Mets had what is widely considered to be the worst offseason among all of Major League Baseball’s 30 clubs…maybe it was a case of “lesson learned.”

Like their cross-town rivals, the Metropolitans have tried to buy a contending team over the last several years. They have handed out large, multi-year contracts to the likes of Jason Bay, Pedro Martinez and Francisco Rodriguez…they have traded for high-priced talent like Johan Santana…and they have lavished big-money contracts on their own impending free agents. Yet, they have never reaped benefits consistent with what they have spent in their extravagant shopping sprees.

To the contrary, over the last half-dozen years the baseball gods appear to have “had it in” for the franchise. They lost Game 7 of the 2006 ALCS, imploded during unprecedented collapses in 2007 and 2008 and have now suffered from the effects of the Madoff Ponzi Scheme (though it remains unclear whether they are victims of the scheme or somehow duplicitous in the matter).

Ownership is trying to turn the page, but it seems unlikely that will happen until control of the team falls to someone else. Still, Fred Wilpon brought in well-respected executives Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and JP Ricciardi in an effort to usher in a new day in Flushing. For now, the formula includes belt tightening and waiting until the big-money contracts that were handed out to declining stars lapse, and money is freed up to start the rebuilding process anew. That process will be complicated by the shoulder injury and surgery currently being rehabilitated by LHP Johan Santana, but it is underway nonetheless.

Notable additions: RHP D.J. Carrasco, C Ronny Paulino

Notable subtractions: LHP Pedro Feliciano, LHP Hisanori Takahashi

The offense:

Catcher: Josh Thole

Infield: Ike Davis (1B), Luis Castillo (2B), Jose Reyes (SS) and David Wright (3B)

Outfield: Jason Bay (LF), Angel Pagan (CF) and Carlos Beltran (RF)

The Mets offense finished 13th (of 16 teams) in the National League in runs scored in 2010. It seems illogical that a lineup containing the likes of Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright could be so incompetent…but the fact of the matter is that age and injury have started to dull their talents and take a toll on their performance.

The lineup will need bounce-back seasons from at least three of its four star players to even approach league-average. Bay (.259, 6 HR and 47 RBI) was a huge disappointment in his first year after arriving from Boston on a four-year, $66 million deal. It was the worst year of his career—a season made even worse when he suffered a concussion in July.

Beltran played just 64 games last season due to knee problems, hitting just .255, with seven home runs and 27 RBI—the knee issues will force him to move from center field to right field in 2011. Reyes, still just 27 years old, continued his battles with a variety of health issues and injuries that have limited his playing time during the last two years. He will be a free agent at the end of the year, and with expectations, the club will not be very good this season, there has been ample speculation he won’t be in a Mets uniform after the trading deadline.

Wright, who struggled throughout 2009, had a nice comeback campaign last year, belting 29 homers and knocking in 103 runs. As with Reyes, there has been discussion that he could be traded—if only because he is the one player on the current team who could bring back the quality and quantity of prospects needed to help rebuild the team.

First baseman Ike Davis appears to be settled in as a cornerstone of the Mets future after hitting .264, with 19 HR, and displaying an excellent glove in the infield (he led all NL 1B in UZR rating).

Angel Pagan stepped in for the injured Beltran and hit .290 with 37 stolen bases, but his performance fell off dramatically during the second half of the season leaving as many questions unanswered as answered. Regardless, he will be the starting center fielder for the club in 2011.

Veteran Luis Castillo is a black hole on offense and could easily be overtaken at second base by Daniel Murphy, a former first baseman who missed all of last year with a knee injury. Similarly, youngster Josh Thole provides very little in the way of offensive production, while some pundits describe him as their “catcher-of-the-future;” My guess is that he is a just a place holder until something better comes along.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: RHP Mike Pelfrey, RHP RA Dickey, LHP Jonathan Niese, RHP Chris Young, LHP Chris Capuano

Closer: RHP Francisco Rodriguez

The rotation was dealt a significant blow last summer when staff ace Johan Santana suffered an injury to the anterior capsule in his left shoulder and had to undergo season-ending surgery. Even if he returns in 2011, and that is a BIG “if”, he will likely be ineffectual as he attempts to regain his strength.

With Santana unavailable for the season, Mike Pelfrey will step into the breach atop the rotation. The right-hander became more a pitcher and less of a thrower last season, and the change met with positive results as he won 15 games and posted a 3.66 ERA. That said, he really isn’t a No. 1 starter—he allows more than a hit per inning pitched and has a pedestrian strikeout rate.

Dickey, a knuckleballer, was a revelation last season, winning 11 games and posting a team-best 2.84 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP, but questions remain about his reliability. While he could win a lot of games, can you really trust a guy who doesn’t know where the ball is going when he lets go of it?

Niese had a solid first half last year but wore down as the season went on; he posted a 4.82 ERA in the second half (7.11 in five September starts). According to published reports, he has worked on his conditioning this offseason in the hope of staying strong throughout the summer.

The thing about Niese is this: when I interviewed several members of the Portland Sea Dogs (Double-A) a couple of years ago, quite a few of them told me that he was the toughest pitcher they had ever faced—by far. So I have a feeling he has just started scratching the surface.

The Mets hope that Chris Young is healthy enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, after being limited to a total of 18 starts over the last two seasons (4 GS in 2010). He was 27-19 from 2006-08 in Petco Park in San Diego and would likely enjoy similar success at Citi Field if he can stay on the field.

The last spot in the rotation will likely go to Capuano, who was listed as one of my 10 fantasy baseball sleepers this year. After two years of inactivity, he returned to action in June of last year, and then rejoined the rotation at the end of August. He went 2-2, 2.91, in six starts at the end of the season and should enjoy pitching at Citi Field much more than at Miller Park.

The Mets tried to void the remaining guarantee on Rodriguez’ contract after he tore a ligament in his right thumb while assaulting his children’s grandfather at Citi Field at the end of August. The effort failed, and they are now stuck with him. It is widely expected that, if they don’t contend, though, they will scale back his role towards the end of the season so he does not reach the 55 games-finished threshold needed to kick in his 2012 option.

Prediction for 2011: Fourth place (75-87)

The heart of the offense has more questions than answers at this point, and when the club falls out of contention, it is possible that two or three of the key veterans could be traded for the prospects that will be needed to start rebuilding a farm system bereft of high-end prospects.

The impact of Santana’s loss cannot be overstated—his injury leaves the rotation without an ace and will impact the rest of the rotation and the bullpen. Dickey, Young and/or Capuano are unknown commodities entering the season—hey are all high risk with moderate reward. K-Rod is another guy who could end up on the trade block by mid-July. I see 75 wins as a best-case projection and believe they could even fall to fifth place. It’s going to be an ugly year in Queens.

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Top Five Prospects:

1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
2. Wilmer Flores, SS
3. Matt Harvey, RHP
4. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
5. Cesar Puello, OF

Mejia signed as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in April of 2007, and three years later he made the Mets’ Opening Day roster as a member of their bullpen. At the tender age of 20, he was the youngest player in the major leagues, but his inexperience was obvious, and he was optioned to Double-A in June. Shoulder issues had him in and out of uniform the rest of the year, as he played at four different minor league levels as well as the big leagues.

He features a mid-90s “plus” fastball that consistently induces ground balls thanks to a late-cutting action; it rates a “70” on the scouts’ 20-80 scale. He features a decent mid-to-high 80s changeup that dips like a splitter. His 12-to-6 curveball is inconsistent but can be a “plus” pitch at times.

The Mets want to develop him as a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he will need to work hard to improve the consistency of his mechanics and his durability. If he struggles, they have the luxury of moving him to the bullpen, where he could develop into a dominant force at the end of games.

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Washington Nationals (2010 record: 69-93)

The addition of free agent Jayson Werth speaks volumes about the Nationals’ growth in terms of the perception of the team as it continues its journey towards baseball relevance. The trade-off from Adam Dunn to Werth may or may not make an impact on the field in terms of wins and losses, but it makes a clear statement about the possibilities for the future.

Sadly for Nats fans, that future is not now.

The team improved by 10 games last year, but it faces an uphill battle to hold onto those gains in the upcoming season. The club lost future ace Stephen Strasburg to a torn ulnar collateral nerve and consequent Tommy John surgery last August. He’ll miss most, if not all, of the 2011 season.

On offense, Dunn and Adam Kennedy departed via free agency, and the front office traded OF Josh Willingham to Oakland. Considering all of these developments in their totality, the best case scenario for 2011 would be maintaining the 10-game improvement achieved in 2010.

The team is very young and, under the best of circumstances, it is likely still at least a couple of years away from competing for a division title.

Notable additions: OF Rick Ankiel, 1B Adam LaRoche, LF Matt Stairs, RF Jayson Werth

Notable subtractions: 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Adam Kennedy, LHP Scott Olsen, RHP Joel Peralta, OF Josh Willingham

The Offense

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Infield: Adam LaRoche (1B), Danny Espinosa (2B), Ian Desmond (SS) and Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

Outfield: Roger Bernadina (LF), Nyger Morgan (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)

The offense finished 14th (of 16) teams in the league in runs scored last year, and the plight of the lineup became more acute this winter when 1B Adam Dunn left for the cozy confines of US Cellular Field on the south side of Chicago. It was further exacerbated when Willingham was shipped to the Athletics.

The club will be largely dependent on holdover Zimmerman and newcomers Werth and LaRoche. Zimmerman won the Silver Slugger Award at third base in each of the last two years, but he had Dunn as his running buddy in the lineup.

That responsibility now falls to Werth, who will face life outside Citizens Bank Park while trying to live up to the $126 million contract he received in free agency. The pundits are split on whether his power will translate seamlessly to a bigger stadium in the nation’s capitol.

LaRoche has bounced from Pittsburgh to Boston to Atlanta to Phoenix (and now) to Washington over the last three seasons, but he has averaged a .269 average and 25 HR in those three seasons.

The club’s fate will be largely dependent on the continued development of 24-year-old SS Ian Desmond and 23-year-old 2B Danny Espinosa to complement Zimmerman, Werth and LaRoche. They both offer a potential for a decent power and speed combination, but they’re young and nothing is assured.

Desmond showed growth in the second half of last season, offering hope for 2011. Espinosa’s batting average in 2010 was bleak, but it will likely improve as last year’s number was based on a dismal 27 percent hit rate.

Nyjer Morgan went into last year having had a dynamic second half in 2009, but some level of regression was expected as his success was based on an unsustainable 37 percent hit rate in ’09. He regressed.

The question is where he goes from here. His game is speed, and he can’t use it unless he gets on base more consistently. He doesn’t walk nearly enough to be an effective leadoff man, so he’s got to figure out an identity and then embrace it. Many of the same comments apply to Bernadina, as well.

Ivan Rodriguez’s skills at the plate are increasingly marginal and he offers little in the way of production. That said, he doesn’t really hurt the club, per se, so he’ll likely retain the lion’s share of the playing time behind the plate.

The Pitching Staff

Rotation: RHP Livan Hernandez, RHP Jordan Zimmerman, LHP John Lannan, LHP Tom Gorzelanny and RHP Jason Marquis

Closer: RHP Drew Storen

On the mound, with Strasburg lost for the year, it is essential that the bevy of young pitching prospects they have started integrating at the big league level develops quickly in support of veteran Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez had a nice comeback campaign last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, but he’s just not a No. 1 pitcher anymore. Zimmerman and Marquis are both returning from injuries and cannot really be counted on, yet the Nationals are counting on them to be productive in the No. 2 and 3 slots in the rotation.

Zimmerman looked good in his return from Tommy John surgery at the end of the year and is capable of becoming a consistent winner if healthy. He’ll be another year removed from his injury this season, so the front office is hopeful he will remain healthy and develop into a reliable No. 2 behind Strasburg.

Lannan struggled throughout the first half of last year and eventually earned himself a demotion to Double-A. When he returned he resembled the pitcher who showed so much promise in 2008 and 2009.

Marquis and Gorzelanny are back-end options in any major league rotation. Marquis is a ground ball pitcher who seems destined to pitch 180 innings, win 12 to 13 games, and post a 4.50 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, plus or minus. Gorzelanny walks too many batters and, as a result, will always struggle to live up to the potential he occasionally flashes.

Storen should be ready to assume the closer’s mantle on a regular basis in 2011. He had a strong first half last year, followed by a rough second half, but the peripherals suggest his second half was largely a matter of bad luck (high hit rate, low strand rate). I expect he will have a solid campaign as Washington’s closer, and eventually develop into an excellent closer over the next couple of seasons.

Prediction for 2011: Fifth place (70-92)

The absence of Dunn and Strasburg will no doubt hurt the on-field product, but their losses shouldn’t be catastrophic. Werth won’t replace Dunn’s offense, but the combination of Werth and LaRoche should replace the productivity of Dunn and Willingham. There is no replacement for Strasburg, but a healthy Zimmerman should mitigate the impact of his loss.

Desmond, Espinosa and Morgan: two of them will take a step forward this season and help the offense improve, if only marginally. Lannan will win a dozen games. The 2011 campaign won’t be what it could have been with Strasburg in the rotation, but it should provide an ever-improving foundation for the organization as it looks toward a future that includes Bryce Harper, Derek Norris, AJ Cole and others.

Top Five Prospects

1. Bryce Harper, OF
2. Derek Norris, C
3. AJ Cole, RHP
4. Chris Marrero, 1B
5. Yunesky Maya, RHP

Sports Illustrated dubbed Harper “Baseball’s Chosen One” as a high school sophomore. You would think it would be hard for a kid to live up to that kind of hype, yet Harper continues to impress in spite of the weight of expectations he carries on his shoulders.

The former catcher earned his GED in 2009 in order to skip his junior and senior years in high school and enroll at a junior college. In his one year of JuCo ball (2010), he hit .443 while leading the nation with 31 HR. He won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation’s top amateur player and was then the consensus No. 1 pick in last June’s First-Year Player Draft.

He agreed to a contract with the Nationals just before the August signing deadline and converted to the outfield in the instructional league. He hit .343 in winter ball (in the Arizona Fall League) and is ticketed for the minor leagues in 2011 (maybe High-A Potomac, to start).

He is the proverbial five-tool player. There is no aspect of his game that needs improvement…just refinement. According to Baseball America, his power rates an “80″ on the scouts’ 20-80 scale. What most people don’t know is that his arm also rates an “80″ on the scouting scale. He stole 20 bases in 24 attempts in JuCo.

He will need to refine his approach at the plate and the mechanics of his swing in the minor leagues—improvements that will help him to hit for a higher batting average in the major leagues. He also needs work on his defense in right field, but it is a matter of gaining experience not acquiring skills. He is reputed to have an excellent work ethic, so the learning curve won’t be long or steep.

He is on the fast track to The Show, and to stardom.

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