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Cincinnati Reds (2010 record: 91-71)

The Cincinnati Reds won the National League Central last year and, in the process, made the postseason for the first time since 1995, when they swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS but were in turn swept by the Atlanta Braves in the Championship Series.

The Reds rolled snake eyes in last year’s postseason, losing the Division Series in a three-game series to the Philadelphia Philles that included two shut outs and suffering a no-hitter at the hands of Roy Halladay.

For the most part, the club returns with the same cast of characters in 2011 and will hope to earn a repeat visit to the playoffs, though obviously hoping the continuity on the roster and the experience garnered last year will help them take another step in the upcoming season—as a pennant contender.

Notable additions: OF Fred Lewis, OF Jeremy Hermida, SS Edgar Renteria

Notable subtractions: SS Orlando Cabrera, OF Jim Edmonds, RHP Aaron Harang, LHP Arthur Rhodes

The offense

Catcher: Ramon Hernandez

Infield: Joey Votto (1B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Paul Janish (SS) and Scott Rolen (3B)

Outfield: Jonny Gomes (LF), Drew Stubbs (CF) and Jay Bruce (RF)

The Reds sat idly on the sidelines for the first two months of the offseason, but they eventually added OFs Hermida and Lewis and SS Renteria to augment the NL’s top run-scoring offense. Renteria will do battle with Paul Janish to determine who will be successor to Cabrera at shortstop; otherwise, 1B Joey Votto, RF Jay Bruce and 2B Brandon Phillips return to lead a potent offensive attack.

Votto helps set the tone on the clubhouse and in the field with solid leadership and a hard-nosed mentality. For a while, he appeared ready to make a run at the Triple Crown last year, but he eventually settled for second-best in batting average (.324) and third place in both home runs (37) and RBI (113).

His consolation prize? He was named the NL MVP (the first Reds player since Barry Larkin, in 1995, to be so honored).

Bruce rebounded from an ugly sophomore season by having an excellent all-around season. He posted career-best statistics in all of the major offensive categories and became one of the better defensive right fielders in the league. After having a decent first half, he struggled mightily in July (.200, 0 HR, 5 RBI) before rebounding to hit .338, with 15 HR and 29 RBI down the stretch. He will look for his first All-Star nod in 2011.

Meanwhile, Rolen celebrated his return to the National League by earning his sixth All-Star Game invite—his first since 2006 (when he played for the St Louis Cardinals). The former NL Rookie of the Year had easily his best year since ’06—hitting .285, with 20 HR and 83 RBI in the middle of the potent Reds lineup.

Ironically, 2B Brandon Phillips earned his first All-Star selection in what was arguably the worst offensive season of his career. He hit just .275 and has seen his home run total (18 last year) decline each year since ’07. He also drove home a career-low 59 runs last year.

Stubbs started the year batting leadoff, but that experiment proved to be a dismal failure—he lacks the plate discipline and on-base skills to hit No. 1. Freed from his responsibility atop the lineup, he became more aggressive in pursuing the long-ball—and had somewhat surprising results.

Though he never hit more than 12 homers in any minor league season (A-ball, 2007), Stubbs socked 22 HR last year and drove home 77 runs in the process. Not bad for his first full year in the major leagues!

The question is: Will he prove capable of sustaining those numbers (in consideration of his 28.8 percent strikeout rate last year)?

The rest of the offense is pedestrian, but no one really hurts the team. I expect Gomes will regress in 2011, as his last two years of statistical relevance were driven by spikes in contact rate and hit percentage. When these regress to his inherent skill set, I expect he’ll hit .240-.250, with 18-20 HR (+/-).

Hernandez had a nice season last year, driven by a spike in his hit percentage. He will likely regress back to his career norm and return to the .250-.260 range in batting average.

Janish is the likely heir at shortstop—both he and Renteria offer little in the way of offensive skills at this point, but he will provide decent batting average and won’t hurt the club with the leather.

The pitching staff

The starting rotation: Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood

Closer: Francisco Cordero

Once upon a time, Harang was the staff ace, but his abilities have declined; by the end of the year, he was just a shadow of his old self. He had clearly become the sixth best pitcher in the rotation and was unable to crack the team’s postseason rotation. Exit Harang.

Into the role of the staff ace (?) steps Volquez, a former All-Star who suffered an elbow injury in 2008 and has pitched only 112.1 innings over the last two years. Arroyo has become a workhorse since being acquired from the Red Sox after the 2005 season in exchange for Wily Mo Pena. He has thrown 200+ innings in each of his five years in Cincinnati and last year posted a career-high 17 wins.

Cueto, Bailey and Wood are all promising youngsters who are still developing their skills at the big league level. Cueto looks to be the most solid of the three. Bailey has shown some of his promised upside in the latter stages of each of the last two years, but he has not demonstrated that he can sustain the effort over an entire season. Wood is the only lefty in the rotation and has potential, but he surrenders too many fly balls and could be victimized at Great American Ball Park.

Assuming good health among all of the starters, one of those last three guys is eventually going to lose his spot in the rotation to flame-thrower Aroldis Chapman—of the 105 mph fastball! The Cuban defector will start the year in the bullpen, but it seems just a matter of time until he is plugged into the starting rotation. With Wood the only other lefty starter, it would seem the competition might be between Cueto and Bailey to see who goes to the bullpen.

Cordero blew eight save opportunities in 2010 and posted a 6.75 ERA in September, as he appeared to wear down. If the starters are healthy and Cordero struggles, it seems possible Chapman could be handed ninth-inning duties some time before midseason.

Prediction for 2011: 1st place (93-69)

The Reds signed manager Dusty Baker to a two-year contract extension. They then ponied up more than $150 million to sign Votto, Bruce, Arroyo and Cueto to extensions of their own. They have a solid core of players that should carry them to a division title, but whether they have the pitching to get into the NLCS or Fall Classic remains to be seen.

The club doesn’t have a top-of-the-rotation stud to oppose the likes of Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay—at least they don’t have one at this moment. I suspect Chapman could become that pitcher by the end of the season, but there are a lot of games to be played between now and then.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
3. Yonder Alonso, 1B
4. Billy Hamilton, INF
5. Juan Francisco, 3B

What more can be written about Chapman that hasn’t already been written? His well-chronicled efforts to defect from Cuba led him to Andorra. The expected bidding war for his services materialized, but not nearly to the extent originally thought, as worries about his makeup and work ethic caused many teams to be timid in their pursuit.

The Reds signed him to a six-year, $30.25 million deal that included a $16 million signing bonus. He floundered early in the season in the Louisville (Triple-A) rotation but excelled after being moved to the bullpen. He was recalled in August and opened a lot of eyes with his dominant fastball (an “80″ on the scouts 20-80 scale), but he became something of a legend on September 24th when he unleashed the fastest pitch ever recorded in MLB history at Petco Park in San Diego at 105 mph.

Time will tell whether he can make the transition to the rotation or whether he becomes a dominant closer, but one thing appears certain—he has a heck-of-a career ahead of him as long as he stays healthy.

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Milwaukee Brewers (2010 record: 77-85)

The Milwaukee Brewers front office entered the offseason with one primary task: improve the pitching staff. The club finished last season with the third-worst ERA in the National League—the primary reason the club finished with a sub-.500 record.

General Manager Mark Attanasio immersed himself in his task as soon as the offseason got underway, and by Christmas he had remade his starting rotation—trading away some of his building blocks for the future in order to obtain a pair of cornerstones for his pitching staff.

Shortly after Thanksgiving, he traded mercurial second base prospect Brett Lawrie (whom the organization had grown disenchanted with) to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Shaun Marcum.

Then, just two weeks later, he gave his club and his fan base a second Christmas present, shipping starting shortstop Alcides Escobar and three more prospects (speedy outfielder Lorenzo Cain, No. 1 prospect Jake Odorizzi and fireballer Jeremy Jeffress) to the KC Royals for former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt.

While Attanasio may have traded away some of the organization’s future, there is no doubt he dramatically improved its prospects for the immediate future by making the club a contender for the 2011 postseason.

Notable additions: SS Yuniesky Betancourt, RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Shaun Marcum, RHP Takashi Saito

Notable subtractions: OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, RP Trevor Hoffman, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, 2B Brett Lawrie

The offense:

Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy

Infield: Prince Fielder (1B), Rickie Weeks (2B), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS) and Casey McGehee (3B)

Outfield: Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gomez (CF) and Corey Hart (RF)

The Brewers offense ranked fourth in the league in runs scored (750) last year and will almost certainly remain very dangerous in the upcoming season. The lineup features five batters who have the ability to hit 25-plus home runs and drive in 100-plus runs.

The anchor of the offensive attack is 1B Prince Fielder, the impending free agent who had his worst season in terms of productivity since 2006. He established a career-low in batting average (.261) and came close to equaling his career low in both homers and RBI.

It was not the kind of season he wanted to have while trying to convince the Brewers to commit to a long-term contract for his services.

With Fielder potentially departing via free agency at the end of the season, LF Ryan Braun is poised to replace him as the primary cog in the lineup. He hit .304, with 25 HR and 103 RBI last year in what was considered by many to be a disappointing campaign (his home run total has decreased each year since his ROY effort in 2007).

His contact rate and hit rate are very solid, but there are a couple of areas of concern for fantasy baseballers with respect to his home run totals—his HR/FB rate dipped to a career low (at 14 percent, it is just 2/3 of what it was back in 2007) and his ground ball rate (48 percent) has increased more than 20 percent since ’07—Neither of these trends will support a 35-to-40 home run season in 2011.

RF Corey Hart posted career-best home run and RBI totals and had a nice spike in his batting average, paradoxically those numbers in spite of the fact his contact rate regressed to a career-worst (75 percent). It’s unlikely he’ll duplicate this level of productivity moving forward, as his HR/FB rate (17 percent) was well above his career rate (11 percent).

2B Rickie Weeks was healthy and compiled 600 at-bats (651) for the first time, well above his previous high (475). The extra playing time translated into a career-best total in homers, ribbies and runs—and in the process he set club records for a second baseman in each of these categories.

3B Casey McGehee converted his full-time gig into a 20/100 campaign in spite of a significant spike (plus-9 percent) in his ground ball rate. He will need to elevate the ball in 2011 to take full advantage of his power potential.

The rest of the lineup is lacking. Lucroy makes great contact (85 percent last year) but offers little in the way of power. Gomez has a sub-par approach at the plate (.289 OBP) and thus has been unable to take advantage of his best tool (speed) because he does not get on base with sufficient frequency.

Betancourt puts the bat on the ball with the best of them (career contact rate of 90 percent) but has an abysmal hit rate (career 27 percent), suggesting he often puts the ball in play just for the sake of getting it in play. He doesn’t draw walks as often as he needs to (4 percent BB rate).

The pitching staff:

Starting rotation: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson

Closer: John Axford

The team had only two dependable starters last season (Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf). The front office knew the club would have to upgrade on the likes of David Bush and Manny Parra if they hope to compete.

Enter Marcum and Greinke. They make the Brewers instant threats in the NL Central. While the rotation likely won’t compete with the Phillies or the Giants as the best in the league, it certainly should be one of the top four or five rotations in the league.

Most pundits knew there would be some regression in Greinke’s performance last year, as his 2009 Cy Young peformance was largely driven by an other-worldly strand rate (81 percent).

The baseball gods made him pay by imposing just a 67 percent strand rate on him last season. Under normal circumstances you would expect his numbers to trend toward a normalized rate of 73 percent, but in consideration of the fact he will make the jump to the NL Central—where he will no longer face the DH—it seems likely his strand rate will improve into the low-70′s.

The whole pick-up baseketball fiasco will cost him a month of the season—pity. Regardless, he should still be able to win 14 or 15 games and post an ERA in the high 2′s or low 3′s—assuming he doesn’t suffer from Jacoby Ellsbury Syndrome.

Marcum is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He posted excellent numbers against the tougher lineups in the AL East. While his elbow remains a concern, as was underscored by his midseason visit to the DL last year, he is also likely to see an improvement in both his win total and ERA in 2011.

Gallardo was the staff ace but now may be no more than the third-best starter on the club. He strikes out hitters with great regularity, but struggles with his control (a 4.1 BB for every nine innings pitched over the last two years).

Those extra base runners cause his ERA to elevate to a much higher number than his talent suggests he’s capable of posting. Wolf had a rough start to last year, but he improved as the year went on as he found his command (fewer BBs, more Ks). Narveson’s stats looked brutal, but his peripherals illustrate he has significant potential (his strand rate was just 66 percent last year) as he compiled an ERA of just 4.07.

The hard-throwing Axford inherited the closer’s role when Trevor Hoffman scuffled last spring. He posted solid numbers in his first year as closer, posting 24 saves in 27 save opportunities and holding opposing hitters to a .204 batting average.

He will need to reduce his walk rate (4.1 BB per 9 IP) to maximize his value to the team. Southpaw Zack Braddock and righty Kameron Loe both have excellent raw stuff and, although unproven, should provide good depth to a bullpen that also includes veteran RHPs LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito.

Prediction for 2011: 2nd place (88-74)

There is a lot to like here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Brew Crew finishes the year in first place. There is potential for quite a bit of improvement from several hitters, and the presence of Greinke and Marcum improve the rotation exponentially (assuming good health). Narveson could be a sleeper and is someone to watch during spring training.

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Top Five Prospects:

1. Mark Rogers, RHP
2. Wily Peralta, RHP
3. Tyler Thornburg, RHP
4. Scooter Gennett, INF
5. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

Rogers was selected by the Brewers in the first round (fifth overall) of the 2004 draft. He struggled throughout his early career in Low-A and High-A, earning himself a demotion to rookie ball in the middle of his third year. A pair of shoulder surgeries cost him both the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Not the typical resume of a top prospect.

But he returned to the baseball diamond with a vengeance when he was healthy. He posted impressive numbers in High-A in 2009 and then excelled in Double-A last year, earning a September call-up (10 games, 2.70 ERA with the Brewers).

He relies on a lively, mid-90s fastball that will touch 97 on occasion. He also has a knee-buckling curve ball and a slider with decent bite. The problem is he lacks command of all of his pitches and struggles to locate his pitches within the strike zone, but that isn’t surprising for a pitcher who has lost as much development time as Rogers.

Most pundits believe he is destined for the bullpen if he doesn’t improve his command, so 2011 will be an importast year for him.

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Colorado Rockies (2010 record: 83-79)

Notable additions: RHP Matt Lindstrom, INF Jose Lopez, C Jose Morales, INF/OF Ty Wiggington

Notable subtractions: 2B Clint Barmes, RHP Octavio Dotel, SP Jeff Francis, 3B Melvin Mora, C Miguel Olivo

The offense:

Catcher: Chris Iannetta
Infield: Todd Helton (1B), Eric Young Jr (2B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS) and Ian Stewart (3B)
Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez (LF), Dexter Fowler (CF) and Seth Smith (RF)

The Rox finished in third place in the NL West last year, but they could challenge for the division title this year. The key to the Rockies’ fate in 2011 is whether they learn to bring their bats to the ballpark when they are on the road, where they were a dismal 31-50 last year (largely because they hit 72 points less in road games).

Gonzalez and Tulowitzki are the heart of the Rockies offensive attack. This will be a big year for both players in terms of solidifying themselves among the elite offensive players in the game. Gonzalez had a breakout campaign in 2010, but needs to prove he isn’t a one-year wonder. Tulowitzki was relatively pedestrian throughout the majority of the year, but then had an extraordinary month (.303, 15 HR and 40 rbi over his last thirty games) to salvage the season.

The team needs Chris Iannetta, Todd Helton and Dexter Fowler to improve markedly if it is to make a run at the division title. I could throw Smith and Stewart on the list as well, but at least they provided a little bit of power last season, whereas the others provided little in the way of anything.

Iannetta was brutal last year no matter where he played. Helton performed well below expectations whether at home or on the road. Fowler was okay at home but was a non-factor in road games (he hit just .211 and compiled a .297 OBP away from Coors).

The organization is hoping that new hitting coach Carney Lansford will be able to make a significant impact on the offense in his first year in Denver.

On the bench, I like the acquisition of Wiggington, as he will provide some right-handed pop at the corners and enable Helton to rest periodically. I don’t believe Jose Lopez will contribute much to the team and expect he will eventually just serve as a backup for EY, though even that role could fall to Wiggington if Lopez struggles.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge de la Rose, Aaron Cook, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel

Bullpen: Huston Street, Matt Belisle, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Lindstrom, Matt Reynolds and Franklin Morales

Back in the day, you could count on Rockies pitchers to struggle at home while posting a pretty solid set of numbers on the road. Those days are in the past. Last season the club posted a better ERA at home (3.86) than on the road (4.04).

Jimenez had a brilliant start to the 2010 season, going 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the first half. He came back to earth in the second half, but still finished the year at 19-8, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.155 WHIP. De la Rosa likewise got off to a nice start, but injuries derailed him and he was largely ineffective when he returned.

The club must hope Aaron Cook’s performance last year was nothing more than a blip in his career progression, as his 5.08 ERA was more than a run higher than his average for the previous five years.

If the club is to improve away from home, better efforts from Cook and Hammel would go a long way towards achieving that goal: they posted 5.85 and 5.71 ERAs, respectively, in road games last year.

Felipe Paulino, acquired from Houston in the deal that sent infielder Clint Barmes to the Astros, is a dark horse to join the rotation this spring if any of the other starters should struggle or get injured.

The back end of the bullpen is very strong. Huston Street enters the season as the closer after posting 20 saves in 25 opportunities last year. The bullpen in front of him is deep and includes a solid veteran trio in Belisle, Betancourt and Lindstrom, who would be a tremendous addition if he can harness his stuff and remain healthy. The Rox potentially have one of the top bullpens in the league if everyone can stay healthy.

Prediction for 2011: 2nd place (87-75)

The Rockies spent a lot of money this winter, but it wasn’t in free agency. They opted to lock up Tulowitzki (6 years, $119 M) and Carlos Gonzalez (7 years, $80 M) to long-term deals. Those two guys, along with SP Ubaldo Jimenez, provide the core for a team that could compete for a division title this season.

As stated in the body of the article, the club’s ability to compete for a title will be predicated on its ability to compete tougher and win ballgames on the road. I expect some improvement in that regard in 2011, but not to the point where they will be able to overtake the defending world champions.

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Top Five Prospects:

1. Tyler Matzek, LHP
2. Wilin Rosario, C
3. Christian Freidrich, LHP
4. Kyle Parker, OF
5. Rex Brothers, LHP

Matzek was the Rockies’ first-round pick (11th overall) in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, when he was the top high school pitcher in the country. Some pundits believe he fell out of the top ten in the draft due to his pre-draft declaration that he was “looking for unprecedented money” to forego college. The Rockies opened up the vault and gave Matzek $3.9 million late in the signing period to join the organization.

He pitched for Asheville (South Atlantic League) last year and posted a 5-1 record with a 2.92 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He was named the league’s No. 3 prospect (No. 1 pitching prospect) at the end of the year despite having suffered with a bout of biceps tendinitis.

He has four good pitches, but his low-90s fastball is clearly the strongest pitch in his repertoire (rating a “70″ on the scout’s 20-80 scale). His fastball sometimes hit 96 during his rookie campaign, but it would often touch the upper-90s when he was in high school. Scouts believe he has the potential to increase his velocity as he matures.

His secondary pitches are still a work in progress, with the slider being the most well-developed among them (rating a “60″ on the scouting scale). His curve ball is pretty good but needs some work. His changeup is furthest away, as the scouts say he slows his arm speed noticeably when throwing it.

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San Diego Padres (2010 record: 90-72)

Notable additions: SS Jason Bartlett, 1B Jorge Cantu, RHP Aaron Harang, 1B Brad Hawpe, 2B Orlando Hudson, CF Cameron Maybin, SP Dustin Moseley, C Gregg Zaun

Notable subtractions: 2B David Eckstein, RHP Jon Garland, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, CF Tony Gwynn Jr., SS Miguel Tejada, C Yorvit Torrealba, RHP Chris Young

IMO, there is very little chance the Padres repeat their surprising performance of 2010. The club lost three-quarters of its starting infield, its center fielder, one of its catchers, and one of its best starting pitchers. In each instance, the replacement player was a significant downgrade, except at second base (Hudson in place of Eckstein). It is pretty safe to say that the club has thrown itself headlong into re-building mode.

The offense:

C: Nick Hundley
INF: Brad Hawpe (1B), Orlando Hudson (2B), Jason Bartlett (SS) and Chase Headley (3B)
OF: Ryan Ludwick (LF), Cameron Maybin (CF) and Wil Venable (RF)

Gonzalez had another outstanding season, yet at the end of the year it became obvious the organization would not be able to sign him. So he was shipped to Boston in exchange for three of the Red Sox’s top six prospects (including No. 1 prospect Casey Kelly). But he wasn’t the only player to find a new home, as three-quarters of the infield was turned over.

The impact of the loss of 1B Adrian Gonzalez is incalculable, especially when you consider he has been replaced by Hawpe (.245, 9 HR, 44 RBI). The additions of Hudson and Bartlett in the middle infield will do little (or nothing) to help offset A-Gon’s loss, as both are getting long in the tooth. Hudson’s skills are clearly diminishing with age.

As for Bartlett, his numbers with Tampa last year were pretty dismal by his standards, although his sub-standard performance can be explained (in part) by his 30 percent hit-rate. Headley was supposed to provide power and production when he arrived in San Diego, but Petco Park seems to have sapped some of the pop in his bat (though his splits illustrate he struggles on the road, too, and that he is not getting the ball in the air often enough to take advantage of his power).

In the outfield, Ludwick’s production back in 2008 has proven to be an outlier. His productivity diminished in each of the last two seasons and, at 32 years of age, it is clear his better days are in the rear view window.

Maybin has shown tremendous potential in the minor leagues, but his contact rate and on-base skills in the big leagues have prevented him from taking full advantage of his elite speed. As for Venable, he should be considerably better in 2011. Last year he had a dismal contact rate (67 percent, well below his career mark). Looking ahead it seems likely it will return to the low-to-mid-70s, raising his average considerably. If he is able to get on base more consistently, his speed could allow him to develop into a 40-to-50 steals guy.

The pitching staff:

The pitching staff will likely take a considerable step backwards in 2011. The exchange of innings-eater Garland for the increasingly injured (and ineffective) Harang will have a significant adverse impact on the club in 2011. It is a trade-off that will result in (at least) a half-dozen fewer wins in 2011.

Mat Latos showed tremendous growth last year, especially in terms of his DOM and ground ball rate, but his increased workload suggest a regression, or injury risk, is in the offing for 2011.

LHP Clayton Richard had a great first half last season, but struggled throughout the second half. It remains to be seen whether he is the solid pitcher the Padres saw in the first half or the guy who posted a 4.78 ERA in the second half.

The fifth spot in the rotation will likely go to former first-round pick Tim Stauffer, a ground ball pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to strike out enough hitters to be effective in the major leagues.

The bullpen has a bevy of solid arms. Heath Bell is among the best closers in all of baseball. Luke Gregerson (89 K in 78 IP), Mike Adams (73 K in 66 IP), Joe Thatcher (45 K in 35 IP) and Ernesto Frieri (41 K in 31 IP) provide manager Bud Black a bevy of strong-armed options out of the bullpen to bridge the gap between the starting rotation and Bell.

Prediction for 2011: fourth place, 77-85

It’s likely the team will have offensive deficiencies it will not be able to overcome. The team ranked 12th (of 16) in the NL in runs scored last year and then lost its most productive hitter. Only two of the team’s returning regulars had as many as 50 RBI.

The pitching will have to be good for the team to perform any better than this projection, but it seems unlikely the staff can come close to accomplishing what it did last season. The data suggests the team should be wary of counting too heavily on Latos; they have increased his innings pitched by 60-plus in each of the last two seasons. For pitchers under 25 years of age that type of increase has the potential to be disastrous. If he should struggle or suffer an injury, 70 wins becomes more likely than 80 wins.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Casey Kelly, RHP
2. Simon Castro, RHP
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Donavan Tate, OF
5. Cory Luebke, LHP

Casey Kelly was selected by the Red Sox with the 30th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The Sox lured him away from a Tennessee football scholarship with a three million dollar signing bonus. He had stated a preference to play the infield (shortstop) rather than pitch, so the Red Sox agreed to give him ONE year in the field before asking him to make a final decision.

In 2009, the organization allowed Kelly to spend the first half of the season pitching, with the concession he could play shortstop in the second half. While he showed impressive defensive ability at short, his superb performance as a starting pitcher warranted a permanent position change.

He was selected to pitch in the MLB Futures Game and was later named the Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year. The choice was made—he would pitch.

He is a well-rounded pitcher who has three “plus” pitches, all of which he throws for strikes. He has a low-90s fastball that scouts score as a “65″ on the “20–80″ scale. His off-speed pitches make him a top-tier prospect. He has quick action arm and a consistent delivery that makes his changeup difficult to recognize. It is his out pitch… he uses it to rack up groundouts. Kelly also has an 11-to-5 curveball that has “swing and miss” potential.

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A few weeks ago, I initiated a series of articles analyzing and ranking the starters for all of the clubs in the American League East. The series concluded with the belated publication of my analysis of the DHs on Friday. So now it’s time to rank the organizations within the division on the relative strength of their lineups, starting rotations and closers.

The players were ranked 1 through 5 at each position. Each team was assigned points based on where its players rated relative to the other players at the same position: 10 points for best player, seven points for second-best, five points for third place, three points for fourth place and one point for last.

The Red Sox came out on top in my analysis, accumulating a total of 112 point by placing its players in either first or second place in 13 of the 15 positions (failing only at catcher and right field). The Yankees finished in second place with 105 points, placing eight players in either first or second place in my analysis.

They were followed by Tampa Bay (67 points), Baltimore (63 points) and the Blue Jays (43 points). Neither the Orioles nor Blue Jays had a player who ranked first among the five players at his position…the Jays had no one who rated better than third at his position.

Here are the rankings, by team, for each of the positions analyzed:

Catchers: TB, BAL, TOR, NYY, BOS

Designated Hitters: BOS, BAL, NYY, TB, TOR

First Basemen: BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR, TB

Second Basemen: NYY, BOS, BAL, TOR, TB

Third Basemen: TB, BOS, NYY, TOR, BAL

Shortstops: NYY, BOS, BAL, TOR, TB

Left Fielders: BOS, NYY, BAL, TB, TOR

Center Fielders : NYY, BOS, BAL, TOR, TB

Right Fielders: NYY, BAL, BOS, TB, TOR

No. 1 Starting Pitchers: NYY, BOS, TB, TOR, BAL

No. 2 Starting Pitchers: BOS, BAL, NYY, TOR, TB

No. 3 Starting Pitchers: TB, BOS, TOR, NYY, BAL

No. 4 Starting Pitchers: BOS, TB, NYY, TOR, BAL

No. 5 Starting Pitchers: TB, NYY, BOS, TOR, BAL

Closers: NYY, BOS, TOR, BAL, TB

Here is how things shook out on a team-by-team basis (ranking in parenthesis):

Red Sox: Saltalamacchia (5th), Ortiz (1st), Gonzalez (1st), Pedroia (2nd), Youkilis (2nd), Scutaro (2nd), Crawford (1st), Ellsbury (2nd), Drew (3rd), Lester (2nd), Buchholz (1st), Beckett (3rd), Lackey (1st), Matsuzaka (2nd), Papelbon (2nd).

Yankees: Martin (4th), Posada (3rd), Teixeira (2nd), Cano (1st), ARod (3rd), Jeter (1st), Gardner (2nd), Granderson (1st), Swisher (1st), Sabathia (1st), Burnett (3rd), Hughes (4th), Garcia (3rd), Nova (3rd), Rivera (1st)

Rays: Jaso (1st), Ramirez (4th), Johnson (5th), Rodriguez (5th), Longoria (1st), Brignac (5th), Damon (4th), Upton (5th), Zobrist (4th), Price (3rd), Shields (5th), Niemann (1st), Davis (2nd), Hellickson (1st), Farnsworth (5th)

Orioles: Wieters (2nd), Guerrero (2nd), Lee (3rd), Roberts (3rd), Reynolds (5th), Hardy (3rd), Scott (3rd), Jones (3rd), Markakis (2nd), Guthrie (5th), Matusz (2nd), Arrieta (5th), Bergeson (5th), Duchscherer (4th), Uehara (4th)

Blue Jays: Arencibia (3rd), Encarnacion (5th), Lind (4th), Hill (4th), Bautista (4th), Escobar (4th), Rivera (5th), Davis (4th), Snider (5th), Romero (4th), Morrow (4th), Cecil (3rd), Drabek (4th), Litsch (5th), Francisco (3rd)

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I am in the midst of a series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position are being ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players.

Today, the series continues with a look at the No. 4 starters in each rotation.

The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned points as follows: 7-5-3-1.

At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.

Begin Slideshow

I am in the midst of a series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position are ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players.

Today, the series continues with a look at the No. 2 starters in each rotation.

The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned either seven, five, three and one points.

At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.

Begin Slideshow

I am in the midst of a series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the AL East teams on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position are being ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players.

Today, the series continues with a look at the right fielders.

The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned points as follows: 7-5-3-1.

At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.

Begin Slideshow

In articles such as this, many websites give readers a list of the best overall prospects at a given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects who are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact during the 2011 season; thus, a guy like Red Sox SS prospect Jose Iglesias—who is blocked at the big league level by Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie—is not on my list.

Here is my list of the five shortstop prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
2010 performance: .346, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 22 SB, 121 R (for the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nippon Professional Baseball)

Nishioka, 26, was the premier offensive player made available through Japan’s (outdated) posting system last year. The Twins bid $5.3 million for the right to negotiate with him, and then signed him to a three-year, $9 million contract. The switch-hitter is coming off a career-year. He won the NPB batting title with a .346 average, collecting 206 hits in 144 games (the highest hit total since OF Ichiro Suzuki in 1994).

With that said, his success in the United States is anything but assured. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out, he entered last season as a career .280 hitter (batting just .260 in ’09). His performance last year was fueled by a .395 BABIP, a number that is not sustainable over the long term…therefore, he is unlikely to repeat such a performance. “Yoshi” has averaged 28 stolen bases over his last seven seasons of play.

Nishioka will likely play both second base and shortstop for the Twins, though it is very possible he will eventually settle in at second base. Ultimately, the determining factor as to where he’ll end up over the long term is the performance of shortstop Alexi Casilla.

2. Zack Cozart, CIN
2010 performance: .255, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 30 SB, 91 R (at Triple-A Louisville)

There were pundits who felt Cozart might be able to break camp with the Reds in March, but that was before the front office signed free agent Edgar Renteria two weeks ago. So for now it looks like he will probably return to Louisville in an effort to improve on his 107-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio from last year.

But with Paul Janish (a career .226 hitter) and Renteria as the only impediments to his promotion to Cincinnati, it seems very likely he could make his Reds debut during the second half of the season.

Janish has a good glove, but he has registered a lowly .634 OPS over parts of three seasons with the Reds. Cozart has some power, plus he has excellent range, a good glove and a cannon for an arm. For these reasons, it’s plausible he could end up with the Reds anytime after July 1st. As with Grant Green, below, his prospects for a 2011 debut are intertwined with the team’s success.

3. Grant Green, OAK
2010 performance: .318, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 9 SB, 107 R (at Single-A Midland)

Green has drawn comparisons to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki at the early stage of his professional career, but before fantasy fans get too excited they need to remember he put up last year’s gaudy numbers in the hitter-friendly California League.

The Athletics have SS Cliff Pennington (who hit .250 last year) and utilityman Adam Rosales (a career .241 hitter) ahead of Green on the depth chart, so the road to Oakland may not be lengthy. But, Green will have to improve on his 117-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio to force the door open at the big league level.

Still, the A’s are desperate for offense and could be tempted by Green’s power potential if they have fallen out of the division race in the second half of the season. My gut instinct is that he’ll be overmatched in The Show should he get promoted, so caveat emptor!

4. Nick Franklin, SEA
2010 performance: .283, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 25 SB, 92 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A, primarily at High-A Clinton)

Franklin didn’t get a lot of respect as a prospect last winter. Baseball America listed him among the team’s Top 10 Prospects because of his defense, not his offense. But he was one of only three players to forge a 20-20 season in the minors last year, and he did for Clinton in the Midwest League.

He is not quite two years removed from being chosen in the first year player draft, but scouts are already saying that he looks like he will develop considerably more power than originally thought. He could reach the majors in 2011—if only because Josh Wilson is all that stands between him and The Show.

5. Andrew Cumberland, Padres
2010 performance: .350, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB, 68 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A)

Cumberland doesn’t come with the hype of the other guys on this list, but he grabbed scouts’ attention by hitting .365 with 20 SBs for Class-A Lake Elsinore (but, once again, they’re stats that were accumulated in the heavy-hitting California League and are thus subject to scrutiny).

Considering the Padres do not have an answer at the position right now, it’s possible he will compete for a job on the Opening Day roster during spring training.

More likely, he’ll return to Double-A for additional seasoning, and if he has a solid first half he could be promoted to San Diego after the All-Star break.

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In articles like this, many websites give readers a list of the best overall prospects at any given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects that are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact in the 2011 season. Thus, a guy like White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo—who should be beaten out by fellow prospect Brent Morel—is not on my list.

Ditto for Josh Bell in Baltimore, who has been blocked by the recent acquisition of Mark Reynolds.

Here is my list of the five third base prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Mike Moustakas, KC
2010 Performance: .322, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 2 SB, 94 R (combined stats at AA and AAA)

Moustakas, 22, is clearly the best of the class of prospects at third base. He pummelled Texas League (AA) pitching to the tune of .347 with 21 home runs in just 259 ABs before being promoted to the Pacific Coast League (AAA). After his promotion to Omaha, he hit .293 with 15 homers (in 225 AB) and demonstrated that he is close to being major league-ready.

It has been suggested that “Moose” is capable of making an early-season jump to the major leagues in 2011, just as Mike Stanton (ATL) did last year, but it is likely he will either start the season as the Royals’ Opening Day third baseman or return to Triple-A for a full half-season.

He lacks plate discipline and while his selectivity improved in Double-A last year, he hit just .293 and drew only eight walks in the PCL—a league considered to be a hitter’s mecca.

I think he needs more seasoning before making the jump to the big leagues for good, so the betting here is he’ll start the 2011 season in the minors and make his debut with the Royals in July.

2. Brent Morel, CWS
2010 Performance: .322, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 8 SB, 65 R (combined stats at AA and AAA)

Morel, 23, has the inside track on Chicago’s third base job as spring training approaches. He was a September call-up last year and while he hit only .231 with 3 HR in 65 ABs, he showed his glove is ready for the big leagues.

The likelihood he sticks as the 2011 Opening Day starter increased when the White Sox signed DH Adam Dunn and re-signed 1B Paul Konerko and C AJ Pierzynski—their power capabilities in the middle of the lineup will permit the team to be patient with Morel’s offense while taking advantage of his defensive skills.

Mark Teahen started last year as the club’s third baseman but struggled at the hot corner and is being viewed as a super-utility player. Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, who is known for his powerful bat, lacks plate discipline and defensive refinement and is still probably a year or two away from taking his place in the White Sox lineup.

Thus, Morel would seem to be the guy you want to target in your auction/draft. You can likely expect him to hit around .240-.250, with 15 HR (+/-).

3. Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE
2010 Performance: .278, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, 81 RBI (at Double-A Akron)

Chisenhall is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues. He is a plus-hitter with excellent bat speed, a short stroke and solid power to all fields. He projects to hit for 20-plus HR in The Show.

He has accumulated over 600 plate appearances at Double-A and should start the season in AAA. His competition in Cleveland is not especially formidable, with Jayson Nix (.224 in 2010) and Luis Valbuena (.193) seemingly the only obstacles keeping him from taking over as the Tribe’s starting third baseman.

It is a near-certainty that he will be the Tribe’s starting third baseman by Opening Day 2012, but it would seem that a solid start in Columbus (AAA) could lead to a promotion after the All-Star break.

4. Zack Cox, StL
2010 performance: .429, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, 67 R (at Univ of Arkansas)

Cox was considered one of the top hitters coming out of college last spring. He was selected by St. Louis out of Arkansas in the first round of the June draft (No. 25 overall) and will eventually take over as the Cards’ starting 3B.

The question is, whether the ballclub, starving for offense in a somewhat punchless lineup, is prepared to promote him to the major leagues in his first full professional season.

The organization considered promoting him late last season, but ultimately decided not to do so. But that doesn’t mean they won’t give him a shot this year in spite of the fact he played in just four pro games in 2010.

The club will likely start David Freese at third base as the team heads north out of spring training, but it’s entirely possible Cox will move through the Cardinals system quickly and join the major league team sometime after midseason.

He has exceptional bat speed and is projected to hit for a solid BA and 20-plus home runs, but I expect it will take a couple of years for him to get settled in The Show. I can only say, “buyer beware” if he makes the Cardinals in 2011.

5. Matt Dominguez, FLA
2010 Performance: .252, 14 HR, 81 RBI, 0 SB, 61 R (at Double-A Jacksonville)

The Marlins have already announced they are going to give Dominguez a shot to win the job at third base during spring training.

The former first round pick (No. 12 overall in 2007) was a shortstop in high school but has been transferred to third base due to the presence of Hanley Ramirez in Miami.

It seems like an awfully big step for a guy who hit just .252 in Double-A, but the Marlins are committed to their plan. He is an excellent defender with a plus arm.

Caveat emptor! As with Cox, I expect Dominguez will have a negative impact on his fantasy league owners in 2011.

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