Kuzul

The New York Yankees have have had a rough offseason thus far.

It began with an all too public dispute with free agent SS Derek Jeter, who eventually re-signed with the team, but only after sniping and vitriol were exchanged by the two sides during (and in the aftermath of) negotiations.

Then they were spurned by free agent left-hander Cliff Lee, who took less money than the Yankees had offered in order to accept a return engagement with the Philadelphia Phillies.

And while they were successful in securing free agent Mariano Rivera’s autograph on a contract, they haven’t been so fortunate with southpaw Andy Pettitte, who may hold the fortunes of the organization in his left hand.

These dramas have played out on the back pages of the New York City newspapers at the same time that their mortal rivals, the Boston Red Sox, have enjoyed what is the most productive offseason in franchise history, adding 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford and relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler to an already formidable ballclub. Crawford, the Yankees “Plan B” this ofseason, was signed by the Red Sox while Hank Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman fiddled around, awaiting word from Lee—their “Plan A”.

Ridiculed by the papers, maligned by their fan base and surpassed in talent by their arch-rivals to the north, the Yankees began to appear desperate in spite of the protestations to the contrary by their general manager.

Most of the Yankees’ opportunities to improve had been lost to the front office. Aside from Pettitte, the only other of the top ten free agents that remains unsigned is starter Carl Pavano, and they have been there, done that with the former Red Sox farmhand. If they do not re-sign Pettitte or add another impact starter through free agency, two other options are available to the Yankees:

1) sign a free agent setup man and then include Joba Chamberlain in a deal (along with top prospect Jesus Montero and others) for a front-line starter

2) sign a free agent reliever and then rely on the bullpen to compensate for a rotation that will have rookie Ivan Nova and another marginal pitcher at the back end

The best of the free agent relievers that remained available as of yesterday was former Braves and Rays closer Rafael Soriano, who has been seeking a three year deal—preferably to serve as some team’s closer. But the market never materialized for him—in large part due to the fact that he was designated a Type A free agent (requiring the signing team to forfeit a draft pick). In response to recent speculation that the Yankees needed to sign Soriano to act as their 8th inning setup man, a defiant Cashman declared he would not surrender his first round pick for any of the remaining free agents.

Apparently that all changed last night.

In an act that bears all of the hallmarks of pure desperation, the Yankees agreed to a three year, $35 million contract with Soriano, who will serve as Mariano Rivera’s primary setup man. The deal will allow the right-hander to opt out of his contract after either the first or second year of the deal. So, Cashman surrendered his first round draft pick for a player who may turn out to be a one year rental. Wow!

Soriano led the American League in saves last season (45) and will become the highest paid setup man in the history of the game. The cheering you are hearing is coming from the home of free agent southpaw Brian Fuentes, who remains unsigned.

The Yankees don’t care that they have once again hurt the game of baseball ($11.67 M per year for a set-up guy?). They were in desperate straits trying to chart a course for 2011, and so they did what they felt like they had to do.

The bullpen as currently constituted is arguably the best in the game of baseball, with Rivera and Soriano heading up a relief corps that includes Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson and Pedro Feliciano, among others. But I have a sense that there is another shoe that has yet to drop…

I cannot imagine the Yankees going into the 2011 season with a payroll in the vicinity of $200 million and a rotation that includes Nova and some as-yet-unidentified journeyman. Maybe Soriano will help convince Pettitte he should pitch for one more year…or maybe he frees up Chamberlain to be dealt. Either way, it seems likely that Steinbrenner and Cashman aren’t done yet.

The betting here is that Pettitte—who desperately wants to win—will finally decide to return to the Yankees to make another run towards a World Series ring.

As for Soriano, he makes the Yankees bullpen a force to be reckoned with and provides the club with an heir-apparent for Rivera.

He was an All-Star last year, going 3-2 with 45 saves and a 1.73 ERA. He allowed just 36 hits in 62.3 innings pitched while striking out 57 batters. He and Rivera combined for a 1.77 ERA and a .173 opponents’ batting average (122.3 IP, 75 hits) last year, to go along with 102 strikeouts and 25 walks. THAT is a formidable tandem.

But there is a downside here for the Yankees: Soriano didn’t miss as many bats last year as he had in previous years (his K-rate decreased by one-third last year), and he is a fly ball pitcher who will now pitch in a ballpark that often resembles an over-sized softball diamond. Caveat emptor, Brian.

Soriano doesn’t make up for losing out on Lee or Crawford, but it’s the best the Yankees could do at this point of the offseason—time will tell whether it was a stroke of genius or a mad act of desperation.

For this and more articles written by Jeffrey Brown, you can visit his website here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Now that Adrian Gonzalez will be calling Fenway Park home instead of Petco Park, we have to wonder what we can expect from him this year (and in the future) in terms of fantasy production.

From all of the available data, it appears fantasy owners can expect a significant improvement from Gonzalez in four of the primary offensive statistics utilized in fantasy baseball (with the exception of stolen bases). Statistics suggest he will benefit from playing at Fenway Park in terms of batting average and home runs, and as part of the Red Sox lineup he will have many more opportunities for runs batted in and runs scored. In addition to the raw statistics, the data available at hittrackeronline.com supports the conclusion his home run production should be considerably higher playing for the Red Sox.

He will enjoy playing half of his games in Boston as opposed to San Diego. While Fenway Park is not the homer haven most fans believe, it’s significantly better than Petco Park: Fenway ranked near the middle of the pack in terms of most home runs per game (12th of 30 parks, at 2.09 hr/g) whereas Petco was near the bottom (tied for 24th at 1.56 hr/g). And while some of that difference may have something to do with the teams’ respective rosters, it is unlikely all of it can be explained by the difference in personnel.

Gonzalez hit 31 home runs last year (11 at home, 20 on the road) at an average distance of slightly more than 393.3 feet.

MLB.com provides a nice tool for reviewing a player’s performance at any major league ballpark (click here for Gonzalez’ player page). Once there, you are able to select an individual ballpark and the type(s) of batted ball you wish to review. (NOTE: in the chart below, I’ve selected Petco Park, and all of the doubles, home runs and fly outs which Gonzalez hit there in 2010).

The data provided on mlb.com was then overlayed onto the home run chart for Gonzalez that is provided at hit-tracker (see below)

Analysis of the available data indicates A-Gon may have lost up to four home runs on balls hit at Petco that would have gone for home runs at Fenway Park.

Some pundits might argue that such an improvement will be mitigated by the fact that he’ll be facing the pitching staffs of the AL East and not the NL West…but those suggestions don’t fly in the face of statistical analysis.

We know pitchers in the National League have an easier task on a game-in, game-out basis because of the hitting talents of the No.8 and No.9 hitters in the senior circuit (ERA numbers are improved by as much as a half-run and WHIP by as much as 15 percent due to facing the easier lineups). The performance of the respective AL East and NL West starting rotations suggest there is “a wash” in terms of the relative abilities of those pitchers (the following stats are for the five pitchers who made the most starts for each team):

AL East starting rotations: 236-187, 4.21 ERA, 1.325 WHIP

NL West starting rotations: 186-193, 3.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

For every Matt Cain in the NL West there is a CC Sabathia in the AL East, for every Tim Lincecum there’s a David Price. The starting rotations in Los Angeles and San Francisco favorably compare to those in New York and Tampa Bay, so it seems safe to deduce that Gonzalez is not going to be overwhelmed by the starting pitching in his new division.

And how will he fare against the better pitchers in the AL? It should be noted two of the home runs he hit last year were launched off Giants starter Matt Cain, and that he also homered off such notable hurlers as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, James Sheilds and Shaun Marcum, among others. It seems to me he can hit a home run off CC Sabathia if he can hit one off Cliff Lee (especially if the teams are playing in the new Yankee Stadium softball field!).

Let’s take a look at some more numbers.

In 2010, he hit .421 in interleague play, with a .484 OBP and .772 slugging percentage… and over the last five years, here is how he fared against some of the top pitchers in the game:

vs. Matt Cain – in 64 PA, he hit .321, with a .391 OBP and .643 Slugging Pct
vs. Tim Lincecum – in 41 PA he hit .205, with a .244 OBP and .205 Slugging Pct
vs. Brandon Webb – in 41 PA, he hit .364, with a .488 OBP and .576 Slugging Pct
vs. Ubaldo Jiminez – in 32 PA, he hit .154, with a .313 OBP and .385 Slugging Pct
vs. Cole Hamels – in 26 PA, he hit .364, with a 0.462 OBP and .636 Slugging Pct
vs. Roy Oswalt – in 24 PA, he hit .300, with a .375 OBP and .600 Slugging Pct
vs. Felix Hernandez – in 23 PA, he hit .318, with a .348 OBP and .545 Slugging Pct

And what of facing southpaws (the AL East has a couple of outstanding lefties in Sabathia, Price and Ricky Romero, to name a few)? Well, Gonzalez has historically struggled a bit against southpaws… but, his splits have gradually improved and last year he actually managed to hit better against left-handed pitching than he did against righties:

vs. RHP: .278 / .377 / .510
vs. LHP: .337 / .424 / .513

And one last bit of information that suggests Gonzalez will flourish at Fenway Park: In road games last year, he hit .315, with a .402 OBP and .578 Slugging Pct—numbers that compare favorably to the road performance of the best first basemen in all of baseball, and which indicate he will enjoy being away from Petco Park:

Joey Votto: .349 / .452 / .641
Miguel Cabrera: .315 / .396 / .619
Albert Pujols: .291 / .392 / .599
Kevin Youkilis: .294 / .406 / .561
Prince Fielder: .252 / .379 / .427
Mark Teixeira: .227 / .320 / .408

All of the the statistical analysis and anecdotal information suggests Gonzalez will perform much better with the Red Sox. Freed from the suppressive offensive environment at Petco, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that he will hit .325, with 38 HR, 129 RBI and 105 R.

For this and more articles written by Jeffrey Brown, you can visit his website here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Former Red Sox catcher Rich Gedman, a native of Worcester, has been named the hitting coach for the (Single-A, Short-Season) Lowell Spinners of the New York–Penn League.

Gedman, widely considered to be one of the real good guys in baseball during his playing days, was once an All-Star with the Red Sox; but, his offensive skills disappeared soon after Walt Hriniak was hired as hitting coach by the Red Sox in 1986.

And many observers who observed Gedman’s lackluster mechanics during the last few years of his career believe his devotion to the Charlie Lau philosophy of hitting, as it was taught by Hriniak, served to cut short a burgeoning All-Star career.

And we wonder with tremendous anxiety what he will impart to prospects like Bryce Brentz, Garin Cecchini and Sean Coyle.

I mean no disrespect to Gedman. He is the friend of a friend, and although I have never met him, I understand he is a heckuva nice guy.

He debuted with the Red Sox in 1980 at the age of 21 and a year later, finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting after batting .288 (Dave Righetti, NYY).

He eventually assumed responsibility as the team’s starting catcher in 1984, when he hit 24 HR. He made the American League All-Star team in both 1985 and 1986, but at some point in ’86, things seemed to change for Geddy.

A lot of people mistakenly believe things started heading downhill for Gedman after he started working with Hriniak, but the truth of the matter is Gedman started working with Hriniak a couple of years earlier, and he had produced a pair of All-Star campaigns while working with Hriniak. So, what happened?

Gedman was hitting .269 when he left for the All-Star Game in July 1986. The Red Sox began the second half of the season on a prolonged (12-game) road trip that brought them through Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim and Chicago.

The ballclub went 3-9 on the trip, and although Geddy started the trip by going 5-for-17 in Seattle, his performance suffered as the team’s performance wilted.

After arriving in California, he went 4-for-26, with a pair of home runs. He started tinkering with his swing.

For the rest of the year, he seemed to lack confidence. He was searching for a comfort level and consistency with a swing.

He was swinging down at the ball, letting go of the bat with his left hand and finishing many swings with his right arm raised in the air in a sign of futility.

(NOTE: The Lau-Hriniak approach preached keeping weight on the back foot, swinging down on the ball, going back through the middle (or to the opposite field) and releasing the upper hand from the bat to allow for greater extension)

Gedman was a free agent during the winter of 1986-87. He was dogged by suggestions that Bob Stanley’s wild pitch in Game 6 of the World Series was actually a passed ball that should have been attributed to him (I am one of those who believe this).

When Mookie Wilson’s ground ball subsequently found a hole between Bill Buckner’s legs, his mistake was compounded. The Red Sox were reticent to sign him to the kind of deal he wanted after he became a free agent.

When baseball owners colluded that winter, he was unable to secure a contract with another team. He eventually re-signed with the Red Sox, but under the rules of free agency was unable to join the team until May 1.

His season got underway late, and he struggled mightily after having missed spring training. Still dealing with the confidence issues that plagued him throughout the second-half of the ’86 season and now haunted by the passed ball, his self-doubt was consuming.

He garnered only one base hit in his first dozen games of the year. He grasped for a solution to his offensive problems. The finish to his swing became more exaggerated.

His approach at the plate seemed impotent. His injury-shortened campaign came to an end on July 27 in Toronto. He was hitting just .205 at the time.

He never hit higher than .231 again. He was traded to Houston in 1990 and was retired by the time he was 34-years-old.

Red Sox legend Ted Williams, considered by many pundits to be the greatest hitter who ever played the game, despised the Lau-Hriniak approach to hitting. Teddy Ballgame believed that approach sapped players of their ability to hit for power.

Of course, KC Royals 3B George Brett, Chicago White Sox 1B Frank Thomas and Red Sox OF Dwight Evans were all devotees of the Lau-Hriniak approach to hitting, and they all hit for power, so to an extent the Williams criticism was misplaced.

Likewise, Red Sox 3B Wade Boggs was a disciple of Hriniak, and while he didn’t hit for power, he was an extraordinary hitter.

In defending his coaching, Hriniak said he didn’t teach a level swing or downward swing or upward swing (of which Williams was a devotee), he simply said that each hitter is an individual and should choose the swing they were most comfortable with.

But the problem with his defense is that nearly all of his students had THE SAME swing… and while it worked for Brett and Thomas and Evans and Boggs, it did NOT work for Gedman and many others.

And in the opinion of many, it ruined Gedman’s promising career.

I read an article by Joe Posnanski many years ago in which he discussed his contention that Hriniak ruined Geddy’s career. It was a view held by many (myself included).

He was one of the first writers who discussed bad coaching in baseball. He put words to what many of us were thinking at the time.

In the wake of the announcement, the Red Sox have hired Geddy to coach at Lowell, where he’ll be entrusted with the careers of some of the best and brightest (and youngest) of the Red Sox prospects, I started to wonder what they will be taught in Lowell.

And I started to wonder whether Gedman is the right guy for the job.

For this and more articles written by Jeffrey Brown, you can visit his website here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In articles like this, many websites provide readers with the best overall prospects at any given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects that are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact in the ’11 season; thus, a guy like A’s prospect Jemile Weeks—who is currently blocked by 2B Mark Ellis—is not on my list.

Here is my list of the five second base prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Dustin Ackley, SEA
2010 performance: .267, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 10 SB, 79 R (combined stats at AA and AAA)

Ackley is the best of a mediocre bunch (mediocre in terms of potential FANTASY impact in 2011). I have a good friend who owns him in my fantasy league, and when I inquired into trading for him, you would have thought he is going to be the second coming of Davey Johnson.

He’s not! He was taken with the second-overall selection in the 2009 draft, one pick after consensus No. 1 Stephen Strasburg was taken by the Washington Nationals. He will likely see time in the big leagues in 2011, although he will probably start the year in Triple-A with an opportunity to earn a promotion as early as June or July.

Ackley is atop this list only because Kipnis (No. 2) may not see the big leagues until late in the year, and Lawrie (No. 3) could turn out to be an albatross around the neck of his owners. The former UNC-Chapel Hill standout won’t put up much in the way of power numbers in the big leagues—at least not early in his career—but he’ll hit for average and steal a couple of bases.

I also don’t expect he will drive in many runs, due to the fact he will be hitting in the middle of the Mariners, but I expect the 2010 AFL MVP will have a net positive impact for his fantasy owners in 2011.

He will be a better player in the real world than a performer in the fantasy world. Don’t expect him to be the difference between sixth place and first place in your leagues…he may not be the difference between sixth place and fifth place.

2. Jason Kipnis, CLE
2010 performance: .307, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB, 96 R (combined stats at Hi-A and AA)

The bad news for Kipnis’ fantasy owners is that he will go into spring training blocked by Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald at second base. The good news for his owners is that he’ll go into spring training blocked by Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald at second base.

In other words, the competition for playing time at the big league level is negligible. Last year was his first full minor league season, and he made an immediate impact within the Indians system, hitting .307 with 16 HR, 74 RBI and nine SB at two levels, and ending the year with Akron (Double-A). He will likely start the 2011 season at AAA, but could see time in the big leagues in the second half of 2011.

The main obstacle confronting Kipnis at this point is his defense—he is converting from the outfield to second base. In his first year on the right side of the infield, he committed 23 errors. He will need to focus on his defense if he is to make the jump to the major leagues in 2011…but Indians GM Chris Antonetti has said if Kipnis makes the same kind of defensive improvement in early 2011 as he did in 2010, it is within the realm of possibility he could end up the starting second baseman in Cleveland sometime this season.

3. Brett Lawrie, TOR
2010 performance: .285, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 30 SB, 90 R (at Double-A Huntsville)

Lawrie is the guy the Blue Jays received in exchange for RHP Shaun Marcum last month. He has been listed on Baseball America’s “Top 100 Prospects” list in each of the last two years, but he angered folks in the Brewers front office when he turned down an invitation (directive) to play in the Arizona Fall League this year.

That refusal exacerbated the perception of some in the Milwaukee front office that he has an acute attitude problem. With Rickie Weeks entrenched at second base in the big leagues, the Brew Crew cut ties with Lawrie when given the opportunity to acquire Marcum.

Based on all of the above, Lawrie needed a fresh start…and he will get one in Toronto. He remains a very solid offensive prospect, but will need to improve his plate discipline (a 118-47 K-BB ratio last year) if he is to capitalize on his natural power. Be wary of a possible position switch during spring training…while 15-20 HR would give him decent value at second base, the speculated move to the outfield would greatly diminish his worth in fantasy terms. 

Additionally, a switch to the outfield means he could spend additional time in the minor leagues…so owners should keep a close eye on how he is used in spring training. Owners who use a high-reserve round draft pick on him may end up wishing they had selected someone else. He should be drafted in fantasy leagues this spring, but caveat emptor!

4. Danny Espinosa, WAS
2010 performance: .268, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 25 SB, 80 R (combined stats at AA and AAA); .214, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 16 R (in MLB with Washington)

Espinosa, 23, grabbed the attention of fantasy owners during his first week in the majors last season, thanks to a two-homer game. But fantasy owners who spent a sizeable portion of their FAAB budget on him lived to regret the acquisition, as he hit a paltry .187 over just 87 ABs thereafter. He seems a lock to be in the Opening Day lineup for the Nationals, but he could hurt a fantasy owner’s batting average.

His 20-20 performance in the minor leagues (.268, 22 HR, 25 SB and an .801 OPS) indicates better days may be ahead, although his high strikeout rate suggests owners will have to wait awhile to fully benefit from his abilities. As with first base prospects Brandon Allen (AZ) and Anthony Rizzo (SD), Espinosa may experience growing pains and provide a negative fantasy impact in 2011. Caveat emptor!

5. Daniel Descalso, StL
2010 performance: .282, 9 HR, 71 RBI, 8 SB, 86 R (at Triple-A Memphis); .265, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 6 R (in MLB with St Louis)

Descalso had a solid season in Triple-A (Memphis) while exhibiting a good command of home plate (a 48-47 K/BB rate) in 2010. He will be blocked by Skip Schumaker as spring training gets underway, but the Card’s incumbent is considered more of a utility player by most pundits, so Descalso could win the starting job coming out of Florida. His upside isn’t as high as Ackley or Kipnis or Lawrie, but he could prove to be a decent lower-end option at second base near the end of your auction (or draft).

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Anthony Richard (“Tony”) Conigliaro was born in Revere, Massachusetts, on January 7th back in 1945.

After graduating from St. Mary’s High School (in Lynn, MA) in 1962, he was signed by the Red Sox at the tender age of seventeen. The next year, he hit .363 with 24 home runs in the NY Penn League and was subsequently promoted to Boston. In his rookie year (1964), Conigliaro endeared himself to Boston baseball fans by hitting .290 with 24 HR in an injury-shortened campaign (he played only 111 games due to a broken arm and broken toes suffered in August). In the 1965 and 1966 seasons, he hit .267 with 60 HR… he led the league in homers in ’65 (32) and established himself as one of the most prolific offensive forces in the American League.

In 1967, “Tony C” was an integral part of the Red Sox “Impossible Dream” team. He hit .287 with 20 HR in 95 games and was named to his only all-star team. In the first game of a double-header on July 23rd, in Cleveland, he hit the 100th home run of his career… and in so doing he became the second-youngest player in MLB history to hit 100 career homers (Mel Ott, 1931). But in a game at Fenway Park on August 18th, he stepped to the plate against California Angels pitcher Jack Hamilton, who unleashed a high inside fastball to the plate. Conigliaro, who was famous for striding toward the plate to cover the outside corner, was slow to react to the pitch. He was hit on his left cheekbone, sustaining a fractured cheekbone and a dislocated jaw. He suffered severe damage to his left retina. It was a horrific injury, famously demonstrated on the cover of Sports Illustrated almost three years later.

Amazingly, Conigliaro returned to the diamond in 1969 and 20 HR while driving in 82 runs in 141 games – the performance earned him the MLB Comeback Player of the Year award. And then in 1970, he set career-highs in both HR (36) and RBI (116).

But his damaged eyesight continued to deteriorate. He played with the Angels in 1971, hitting only .222 in 74 games (266 AB) and then disappeared from the game until 1975 when he attempted another comeback. But his courageous effort fell short… as he hit a paltry .123 in 21 games. Alas, a career that had offered such mythic promise ended prematurely and in futility.

On January 3, 1982, he suffered a heart attack and shortly thereafter suffered a stroke, lapsing into a coma. He lived at his parents  home in Nahant until his death more than eight years later. He died in 1990 in Salem, MA, at the age of 45. He is buried in Holy Cross Cemetery, Malden, MA.

He has been honored by Major League baseball through the creation of the Tony Conigliaro Award, which is given annually to the player who best overcomes an obstacle and adversity through the attributes of spirit, determination and courage that were his trademarks.

Prior to the start of the 2007 season, the current Red Sox ownership honored him when they named a new 200-seat bleacher section on the right field roof, “Conigliaro’s Corner”.

For those of us who are old enough to have seen him play, we are left to wonder about what might have been…

Gold bless you, Tony.

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As the 2010 season unfolded, the Red Sox front office declared it was interested in re-signing soon-to-be-free-agents Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. And as the offseason began, General Manager Theo Epstein insisted retaining both players was one of the organization’s top priorities.

But actions speak louder than words. The Red Sox failed to make a substantive offer to either player and watched as both players departed for other destinations.

Back in November, I wrote that it was unlikely the Red Sox would make an earnest effort to re-sign either player (or infielder Felipe Lopez, a Type B free agent who remains unsigned) because they “will want the draft picks in what is expected to be a VERY deep 2011 draft.”

Not only will 2011 be a deep draft, but with anticipated changes to future drafts, it’s also expected to be the last draft in which teams like the Red Sox and Yankees will be able to load up on talent (by signing players for above-slot signing bonuses).

In retrospect, the Red Sox approach to Beltre and Martinez seemed an obvious strategy for Epstein and the Sox ownership. The Red Sox organization will receive two picks apiece for the loss of Beltre and Martinez, and another pick if (when) Lopez signs, in the June draft. [NOTE: Lopez was signed in September for the expressed purpose of obtaining an extra draft pick when he signs as a free agent).

Depending on what ultimately happens with free agent closer Rafael Soriano, they’ll likely get the first-round pick for the Tigers (#19 overall) and the Rangers (#26), plus two picks in the supplemental round that follows. They will receive a compensation-round pick for losing Lopez, when he signs elsewhere.

They traded three of their Top Ten prospects in exchange for former San Diego 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and surrendered their own first-round pick for signing LF Carl Crawford.

It is an interesting approach to building a team…

Would you rather have Beltre and Martinez and Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes and a first-round pick in June, or Crawford and Gonzalez and six picks in the first two rounds of one of the deepest drafts in recent memory?

With the switch of Youkilis across the diamond, Gonzalez effectively replaces Beltre. He is younger and has proven to be a far more consistent run-producer than Beltre (who has had only a couple of decent years, both times in the final year of his contract). Texas gave Beltre five (or six) years at $80 MM (or $96 MM). I’ll take Gonzo…every day.

Crawford essentially replaces Martinez on the roster. He’ll bat third in the lineup and provide the club with outstanding defense. He is not a long-term answer to the team’s dilemma behind home plate, but he is an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Again, I’ll take the new guy.

Would you rather have the three traded prospects and the Sox’ first and second round picks in the upcoming draft, or a total of six picks in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft?

That question is much harder to answer and calls for a great deal of conjecture. The analysis is dependent on whether the Sox ultimately sign Gonzalez to a long-term contract extension (the supposition here is that they will). With that said, we know the following:

Casey Kelly was the Red Sox No. 1 prospect. He now calls the San Diego organization home. He has a tremendous amount of potential, but he is still young and he struggled mightily in Double-A ball last season.

He has been replaced as the team’s top pitching prospect by former LSU standout Anthony Ranaudo, a 6’7″ right-hander who has top-of-the-rotation potential and who was impressive in the Cape Cod League this past summer.

The Red Sox have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey in the rotation for years to come, and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation for the next couple of years (barring a trade). They also have Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings in case of injuries or struggles. To an extent, Kelly and Ranaudo were redundant commodities. Ranaudo made Kelly expendable.

Gonzalez made Rizzo (and Lars Anderson?) expendable… again, assuming they sign him to a long-term extension.

Fuentes is a decent prospect, but raw. They have a similar outfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury…and now they have added Carl Crawford. Because he was raw and his future could not be assured, he was expendable.

The ballclub will likely have two picks in the first round and two more in the supplemental round, meaning they should have four of the first 50 picks (+/-). It will have at least one more pick in the second round (and another compensation-round pick if and when Lopez signs elsewhere). Therefore, the club will have as many as five of the first 50 picks (+/-) and six of the first 75 picks (+/-) in the draft.

The first six players the Red Sox selected in last year’s draft are all numbered among the organization’s top 21 prospects: Ranaudo (#3), Kolbrin Vitek (#8), Brandon Workman (#15), Sean Coyle (#17), Garin Cecchini (#18) and Bryce Brentz (#21). If the organization is able to repeat those results in the upcoming draft, the strategy the front office employed this off-season will have been a resounding success.

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The Texas Rangers and Adrian Beltre have agreed to a five-year deal that will pay the former Sox 3B a guaranteed $80 million…the contract has a sixth year at $16 million (that will vest depending on the number of plate appearances Beltre makes in 2014/15). Well, it looks like agent Scott Boras did it again!

Beltre hit .321, with 28 HR and 102 RBI in his one season with the Red Sox last year. He led the American League in doubles (49) and posted a plus-10 in defensive runs saved. He also made the AL All-Star team.

But in spite of those numbers, the Beltre market was cool this off-season. Teams seemed to discount his performance in Boston due to the fact he has only put up monster numbers in his contract years, and he won’t have another contract year for five seasons.

He expected heated competition for his services this off-season, but a bidding war never materialized. He was (understandably) cool to an overture from Oakland…and it seemed he may have shot himself in the foot when the holidays came and went without a deal in place.

But Boras managed to pit the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers against one another… and in spite of the fact the Angels were reportedly only willing to go to $70 million, the agent managed to get the Angels to put $80 million in guaranteed money on the table (with another $16 million tied to the third baseman’s ABs).

It seems Texas may have been bidding against itself… and it says here the Rangers will live to regret this contract.

At least it’s not the Red Sox. Theo Epstein got a remarkable season out of Beltre for short money, and will now benefit from two top selections in the ’11 First-Year Player Draft as he heads off into the sunset.

Additionally, when the Beltre deal goes south on Texas, the competition in the A L West will have less money to work with. The rich get richer…

Of his deal with Texas, Beltre said: “We all know that the Rangers have a really good team. I want to win. The team is willing to do whatever it takes to get to the next step. That’s one of the factors in making my decision to come here easier.” Yeah, okay Adrian, it was reason #80,000,001.

He will receive $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in 2015.

The sixth year of the deal is for $16 million in 2016, and can be voided by the Rangers if Beltre fails to have either 1,200 plate appearances in 2014 and 2015 combined, or 600 in 2015.

The deal means Beltre will be the club’s starting third baseman, with incumbent Michael Young shifting to DH and a super-utility role.

It will be the second time in three seasons Young has been asked to shift positions.

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In articles like this, many websites will provide readers with the best overall prospects at any given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects that are likely to provide the greatest fantasy impact for the 2011 season; thus, while Oakland 1B prospect Chris Carter may have some long-term potential, he won’t be on my list because he is blocked—at least in the short-term—by Daric Barton.

Ditto for Yonder Alonso in Cincinnati.

With that said, here is my list of the five first base prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Freeman, 21, was a second-round pick in the ’07 draft, the same year the Braves selected OF Jason Heyward in the first round (No. 14 overall). Freeman had a breakout season in 2008, when he hit .316 and belted 18 HR…but he regressed the following year—in large part due to a wrist injury.

Many pundits started to question his status as a top prospect entering last year (as he had only hit eight HR in 2009), but the young left-handed hitter quieted his doubters with a huge 2010 season at Triple-A Gwinnett.

In spite of the fact he was VERY young in relation to the competition in the International League (he was 20 years old for most of the year), Freeman hit .319, with 18 HRs, 87 RBI and six SB.

In four minor league seasons, he hit 50 HRs in roughly 1,600 at bats—that is one homer in every 32 at bats. There is some debate as to whether he has the power potential to be the middle-of-the-order hitter that he was originally projected to become, but what appears certain is the ballclub thinks enough of his potential to hand him the starting first base job entering 2011…and that means he will have a significant impact for fantasy baseball owners in 2011.

Don’t be surprised if he struggles early due to his age, but over the long haul he should be just fine.

2. Brandon Belt, SFG

Belt is another prospect who will be relatively young as the 2011 season gets under way (he’ll turn 23 in April), but it says here he will be a contributor in the big leagues before the end of the year.

He will be blocked at the beginning of the year, due to the fact the ballclub re-signed both Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell, but let’s be honest—Burrell is a “has been” and was re-signed just to buy Belt another half-year in Triple-A.

Belt is a left-handed hitter who blitzed his was through three minor league levels last year (Hi-A, AA and AAA), and he likely needs a couple more months in the minors, but if he proves able to build on his 2010 performance (when he hit .352, with 23 HR, 112 RBI and 22 SB), he will be in San Francisco some time around mid-season. Seriously…Pat Burrell?

3. Brandon Allen, ARI

Allen, who turns 25 years old in February, will battle former NY Yankees prospect Juan Miranda for the starting job in spring training. While he hit just .261 last year, he slugged 25 home runs and showed improved plate discipline, as demonstrated by an excellent 95-83 strikeout-to-walk ratio (compared to a 374-121 ratio between 2008-08).

He played some outfield in the minor leagues, so he has the potential to offer position flexibility for fantasy owners. But caveat emptor: As with Anthony Rizzo below, the fantasy impact he provides in 2011 may be on the downside, as he will almost certainly struggle against big league pitching for the first year or two of his career.

4. Anthony Rizzo, SD

Rizzo was one of the key pieces in the deal that sent slugger Adrian Gonzalez from the left coast to Boston. He is another first base prospect who is VERY young (he’ll be just 21 years old on Opening Day) and who may need more time in the minor leagues, but the Padres front office will hope to move him to the big leagues at the earliest possible opportunity, as they will want to show a return on the Gonzalez deal as soon as is practical.

His 2010 numbers were solid (.260, 25 HR and 100 RBI), but his strikeout-to-walk ratio (132-61 in A and AA) is proof that he will need more seasoning in AAA (Portland). The flip side is the guys blocking him in San Diego are Kyle Blanks and Oscar Salazar, so Rizzo will have an opportunity to ascend to the parent club by mid-season. But as with Allen, above, caveat emptor!

5. Eric Hosmer, KC

Hosmer, 21, is possibly the best first base prospect in all of baseball, but he is not likely going to have a huge fantasy impact in 2011 unless it is at the end of the season, or as a result of an injury.

Royals General Manager Dayton Moore recently told Peter Gammons he wants to take his time with Hosmer and give him a full year in AAA—but my gut instinct tells me Hosmer’s ability may force Moore to make some tough decisions in the second half of the year.

He hit .338, with 20 HR, 86 RBI and 14 SB last year, and compiled a 66-59 K/BB ratio between A and AA. He could be ticketed for KC by August 1st, leaving Moore with a different predicament—what he’ll do with either Billy Butler or Kila Ka’aihue.

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Don’t believe what you have read about Bobby Jenks over the last couple of years—the former ChiSox closer has not lost his stuff. Jenks’ troubles in Chicago largely stemmed from a large dose of bad luck and an even larger menu of problems he had with his old boss, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen.

The righty still has pretty decent stuff, but it says here that his arrival does not necessarily signal an end to RHP Jonathan Papelbon’s tenure in Boston—as was conjectured by Peter Abraham in today’s Boston Globe.

My guess is that the Red Sox will go into arbitration with Pappy, then swallow hard and pay his salary—which will be in excess of eight figures after the arbitration award is made. But I don’t expect them to ship him elsewhere in the interim or to let him walk at the end of the 2011 season, at least not without making a concerted effort to get his name on a long-term deal.

The organization’s recent offer to Mariano Rivera doesn’t mean the team is ready to turn its back on Pappy. The bottom line is the Sox had a chance to add a Hall-of-Fame closer while simultaneously hurting the Yankees, and they would have been foolish not to do so, if at all possible.

But that kind of opportunity rarely presents itself and the team would have been foolish not to explore the possibility…and it doesn’t mean they have washed their hands of Papelbon all together.

Jenks will provide the club with insurance against injury (or continued decline) in the short-run and leverage (in negotiations) in the long-run, as well as a fall back position for 2012 if Papelbon should depart at the end of the 2011 season. Jenks has been promised the opportunity to compete for the closer’s role when and if Papelbon departs. But that doesn’t mean the club will usher Pappy out the door to make room for Jenks.

The front office was never enamored of Papelbon’s proclamations that he would eventually test free agency and seek to establish a record for the highest salary ever paid to a closer, nor were they pleased that he has thwarted their efforts to get his John Hancock on a long-term contract, a la Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.

But Pappy softened his stance last offseason after a rough ’09 and his historic playoff implosion, and it seems likely that he now understands he will never land a record-setting deal in free agency.

While Papelbon’s 2009 numbers appear pretty good (1-1, 1.85), a closer look reveals he struggled throughout the campaign:

His WHIP topped 1.00 (1.147) for the first time since his rookie season.

His OPS-against reached .600 (.600) for the first time since his rookie season.

His overall strike-percentage dipped to a career-low of 65 percent as his walks-per-9-innings-pitched surmounted 3.0 (3.2) for the first time since his rookie season.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which had ranged between 5.6 and 9.6 over the previous three years, slipped to a pedestrian 3.17—not exactly the stuff of an elite closer.

And then nearly every one of those numbers got worse in 2010 (with the exception of strike-percentage, which increased just one point, to 66 percent). He finished the year at 5-7, 3.90, with 37 saves (but had eight blown saves). So, does that mean the Red Sox are ready to turn things over to Jenks? Hardly!

Whether the club decides to make a long-term, big-money commitment to Papelbon will largely depend on how he performs in 2011. If he returns to the form he had in 2006-08, then it seems likely the Sox will attempt to get his name on a two- or three-year deal (with the club’s preference for a two-year deal).

As I stated earlier, Jenks numbers from 2010 look pretty bleak on their face: he finished 1-3, with a career-low 27 saves and a 4.44 ERA. He also posted a whopping 1.367 WHIP. The bloated ERA can be explained (in large part) by a .354 BABIP… otherwise, none of his numbers are dramatically different from his career numbers.

He has had a career-long battle with bases on balls (2.9/9 IP), and his career OPS is .642. His strike-percentage has declined each of the last four seasons (68-67-66-65%), but he has never posted a mark of 70 percent or above (which Pappy did in both 2007 and 2008). Jenks’ career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.04.

By comparison, Papelbon has better career numbers across the board and, in fact, many of his worst-year numbers are comparable to Jenks’s career AVERAGES—which means that even at his worst Papelbon offers what Jenks has done, on average—throughout his entire career.

THAT is the guy you think Theo and Company want to transition to? It says here the answer to that question is “no,” and that if the answer is “yes” then the Sox front office is operating with flawed logic.

It is my theory that the Red Sox would have moved on to Rivera, for obvious reasons. But lacking that, GM Theo Epstein reverted back into chess-mode—strategizing five moves ahead of everyone else. As a keen strategist, Theo has provided his ballclub with insurance and leverage.

Jenks provides the team with both, and lengthens the bullpen nicely—but he does not provide them with a replacement for Papelbon (at least not if they want to win the World Series in 2011).

I believe the Red Sox will wait to see how Papelbon performs in his contract year. And, as has been the organizational norm under this ownership and management, if he re-gains his form of a few years ago the club will approach him with a multi-year deal at the end of the season—on THEIR terms.

Then it will be up to Pappy whether he wants to stay and compete for a world championship each year, or whether he wants to move on for a bigger contract.

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The Red Sox needed to do something dramatic this offseason to stop their slide in the AL East and to stem the growing disinterest of those folks who call themselves members of Red Sox Nation, but who are not invested in the team’s fortunes with their heart and soul. They have done that and then some.

The first week of December 2010 will be long remembered by those of us who are legitimately considered to be “diehards.” But the fact of the matter is the acquisitions of Gonzalez and Crawford were not intended to please us, because we will go to the park and tune in NESN regardless of the team’s success (or the lack thereof).

This week’s acquisitions were designed to appease the growing indifference of the fringe members of The Nation—and they are a significant proportion of those who comprise Red Sox Nation. It is now impossible to imagine fans staying away from Fenway Park this season. Likewise, it is hard to imagine television and radio ratings remaining at their 2010 levels, which were half of what they were just a couple of years ago.

In essence, the Gonzalez and Crawford acquisitions were a big bucket of cold water thrown across the face of a slumbering fan base…they are now wide awake and will be chomping at the bit to buy their early-season tickets at “XMAS at Fenway” on Saturday.

But while Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will replace Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez in the lineup, offense was NOT the Red Sox problem in 2010…three-fifths of the rotation underperformed and the majority of the bullpen (with the notable exception of Daniel Bard) imploded.

So while this week’s transactions were great for headlines, they will not necessarily lead to more wins…it is what happens from here that will help to push the Red Sox towards 100 wins in 2011.

It has been assumed the Red Sox will add at least two relievers during the offseason—a righty and a lefty—but that they wouldn’t entertain the thought of signing a Type A free agent because they would not want to surrender a first-round draft pick in exchange for a reliever, no matter how good he is. The thinking was the team would limit itself to Type B free agent because he would cost a second-round pick…but the signing of Carl Crawford has changed all of that.

Crawford was the highest-rated free agent in this year’s class. As a result of his signing, the Red Sox will surrender their first-round pick to the Rays. Thus, any additional Type A or Type B free agents the Red Sox sign will only cost the organization one additional draft pick, their second-rounder.

The picks they will receive for losing their own free agents are protected; therefore, the first-round picks they will receive for Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and the second-round pick they will receive for Felipe Lopez, are theirs no matter what happens. Even if the Sox should forfeit both of their own picks in the first two rounds, they will have five of the first 50 picks (+/-) in the draft as a result of the departures of Mssrs. Beltre, Martinez and Lopez.

So the free agent landscape has changed dramatically, as the signing of a Type A free agent will cost only their second-round pick, which has significantly less value than a first-round pick. Thus, relievers Grant Balfour and Scott Downs are suddenly in play. While we have no idea of the organization’s interest (or lack thereof) in Balfour, we know with certainty that the front office is enamored with Downs.

Since the southpaw’s market has been depressed by the free agent compensation (first-round pick), he will cost the signing team, and since that is no longer an issue for the Red Sox, it seems inevitable the Red Sox and Downs will get together on a two- or three-year deal. The same logic applies to the availability of Balfour (if the Red Sox have interest).

Since the Yankees were one of the teams who were also interested in signing Downs, bringing the lefty on board will be another shot across the bow of the reeling Yankees.

In consideration of all of the above, it would be very surprising of the Red Sox don’t have Downs under contract by the middle of next week.

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Several published reports indicate the Red Sox have made an offer to free agent catcher Russell Martin, who was non-tendered by the LA Dodgers last week. Martin, who was limited to just 89 games played last year, was an all-star in 2007 and 2008 and could push Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Pawtucket.

The catcher is originally from Quebec and wants to play in the northeast. The Red Sox will be competing with the NY Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays for his services.

It’s likely Martin will make a decision on his 2011 destination by the end of the weekend.

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The Red Sox suffered a plethora of injuries last season and missed the playoffs. Attendance slumped and advertising dollars dried up. Meanwhile, the Patriots are poised to make a run deep into the postseason, the Celtics added Shaquille O’Neal and appear ready to challenge the Lakers for the NBA crown and the Bruins look like a Stanley Cup contender. Some pundits started saying the Pats had surpassed the Sox in popularity and conjectured The Olde Towne Team’s sellout streak could be on the line.

And then New England Sports Ventures purchased an English soccer team and Red Sox Nation started getting restless. The Red Sox ownership knew they had to do something…and do something they did!

In the wake of acquiring first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres and then reaching an understanding with him on a seven-year, $154 million contract extension that (reportedly) will be finalized after Opening Day, the Red Sox have struck again! It’s being reported that the Red Sox have reached an agreement with the top position player in this year’s free-agent class, agreeing to a contract with outfielder Carl Crawford that will pay him $142 million over seven years—the 10th largest deal in big-league history.

The acquisitions of Gonzalez and Crawford, as well as the pending addition of one or two relievers, will undoubtedly make the Red Sox the prohibitive favorites in the AL East heading into the 2011 season—even if the Yankees land southpaw Cliff Lee.

Red Sox Nation will be in a frenzy! Talk about an early Christmas present…“Christmas At Fenway” will be a madhouse on Saturday!

Crawford, 29, is a four-time All-Star who hit .307 this year, setting career highs in home runs (19) and RBI (90). He also swiped 47 bases, led the AL in triples (13) and won his first Gold Glove. As recently as this afternoon, he had been rumored to be heading to Los Angeles to join close friend Torii Hunter in the Angels outfield. But that all changed late this afternoon and early this evening.

The Red Sox have simultaneously added an electric player while striking a serious blow to the offseason plans of the NY Yankees, who were rumored to be interested in signing pitcher Cliff Lee and Crawford. Red Sox Nation feared the Yankees might get both of their primary targets, but with Crawford coming to Boston and Lee weighing offers from both New York and the Texas Rangers; it now seems possible the Evil Empire will get neither.

Pinch me, I MUST BE DREAMING!

With this deal, Crawford becomes the highest-paid outfielder in baseball history…he will earn $16 million more over seven years than Jayson Werth, who signed a contract last week with the Washington Nationals. Crawford’s contract reportedly includes a partial no-trade protection.

He is generally considered the best defensive left fielder in the game and his ability to cover ground within the small spaces of Fenway Park was something the Red Sox prized as well. Last month, manager Terry Francona called Crawford a “game changer,” saying, “He’s that guy that can change a game defensively, offensively. When he gets on base, he gives you a headache.”

Somehow, I have a feeling Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have a SERIOUS migraine headache of their own right about now. Isn’t it delightful?

The Largest Contracts in MLB History

Alex Rodriguez, $275 million

Alex Rodriguez, $252 million

Derek Jeter, $189 million

Joe Mauer, $184 million

Mark Teixeira, $180 million

CC Sabathia, $161 million

Manny Ramirez, $160 million

Troy Tulowitzki, $157.75 million

Miguel Cabrera, $152.3 million

Carl Crawford, $142 million

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