As soon as GM Theo Epstein & Company completed the trade to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, and long before they boarded a plane for Florida to attend the MLB Winter Meetings, their collective attention immediately turned to other priorities. What is next on the agenda?
Epstein has made it clear the club has a couple of needs that need to be addressed this week: a pair of relievers and a right-handed bat.
If you have read my website (www.sox1fan.com) over the last several years you know that I have an infinite amount of respect for Red Sox GM Theo Epstein. He has proven himself to be a man of courage and principle, as was proven when he traded fan favorite Nomar Garciaparra at the 2004 trade deadline and then took his stand against Larry Lucchino back in 2005.
He has also demonstrated he is bold in the way he will conduct his business, as was apparent when he spent Thanksgiving Day with the Schillings in 2003. There is no question that he is an astute assessor of talent, both on the field and in the front office (except when it comes to selection of a shortstop).
He’s done an incredible job building the farm system and continually replenishing the supply of talent in the minor leagues. Oh yeah, and he (and his protegees) have delivered a pair of world championships to Red Sox Nation.
The string of shortstop misjudgments aside (i.e., Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro), he hasn’t made many errors in his stewardship of the organization. I won’t fault him for Daisuke Matsuzaka, as the entire baseball world believed he scored a coup in that deal.
Brad Penny and John Smoltz? Roll of the dice largely caused by circumstances beyond his control. The Teixeira debacle? It was attributable to the ownership triad that would not go beyond seven years for the current Yankees first baseman.
Look, I’m not giving him a free pass, but no one is perfect. The pluses of his tenure far outweigh the minuses. That is why the just-concluded deal for Adrian Gonzalez just doesn’t make sense to me.
On the face of it, sending three of our top 10 prospects to the San Diego Padres for Gonzalez (with a fourth prospect to be named later) just doesn’t make sense—unless Gonzo has already signed his name to a contract extension.
But, reportedly, the ballclub and Gonzalez were unable to come to terms on such an extension during the 30-hour (+/-) window they were granted.
Regardless, the Sox have finalized the deal with the Padres. Gone are Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Rey Fuentes…and, ultimately, another prospect. Arrived is Adrian Gonzalez…essentially on a one-year rental. It doesn’t make sense to me.
If this deal was pulled off by most other GM’s, I would say it is pretty stupid. But, in this instance we are talking about Theo Epstein, and the more I contemplate the trade the more I’m convinced he has something up his sleeve.
Last year, the club and Josh Beckett agreed to a contract extension during February, but withheld formally announcing the agreement until after Opening Day so the club (read: owners) could save millions of dollars in luxury tax payments.
It is not the way the luxury tax system was designed to work, but the ever-shrewed Epstein found a loophole that allowed him to keep both Beckett AND has bosses happy. It was a nifty trick.
Could that be what is going on here? Would the Red Sox have sent four prospects to San Diego if they didn’t already have a deal in place with Gonzalez? Could it be that today’s failure is just a ruse, designed to allow the organization additional financial flexibility as it navigates through the remaining pool of free agents this winter?
“Signing” Gonzalez a-f-t-e-r Opening Day might save the club $five or $six million in luxury tax payments (as a second-time violator of the salary cap, the Sox would be required to pay a 30 percent tax on all salary in excess of the 2011 threshold).
That is money that could be used to sign Carl Crawford, or Scott Downs (or Brian Fuentes), or anyone else they may have designs on to repair their bullpen (RHP Jon Rauch?).
We aren’t privy to what transpires behind the closed doors along Yawkey Way. We don’t know what happened during today’s talks between Gonzalez, agent John Boggs and Red Sox officials, but finalizing this deal without an extension in place does not make a bit of sense. And based on Theo’s track record, it seems safe to assume there is more here than meets the eye.
Something smells fishy!
Thus, the conspiracy theories must be advanced. Is it possible an extension for Gonzalez is actually in place, and that he’s the 2011 version of Josh Beckett.
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Adrian Gonzalez went a thorough physical at Massachusetts General Hospital today. While the organization has not officially commented on the results, a team official (speaking on the condition of anonymity) said he passed.
Currently, the club, the player and his agent are sequestered in an effort to hammer out a contract extension…so while the Red Sox have not confirmed that he passed the physical, it seems unlikely they would be negotiating a contract extension if he had not.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the ballclub and Gonzalez have until 2:00 PM tomorrow to conclude negotiations on an extension. It is unclear whether the Red Sox would pull the plug on the trade if they are unable to get the first baseman’s name on an extension by that time.
That said, it seems unlikely the organization would come this far and then NOT get the contract done… especially in the aftermath of having botched the final stages of the Teixeira negotiations a couple of years ago.
From the perspective of the player, you have got to believe that he has incentive to get the deal done as soon as possible. While he will likely have no shortage of suitors in the off-season, the fact of the matter is that he just had shoulder surgery and it’s projected that he will not enjoy a full spring training.
He will get a late start, and it’s likely that it will take some time to regain strength in the joint. If he has an off-year, which is entirely possible, he may find that teams will be conservative in the years and money they offer next winter. Right now, he has a perennial contender that is eager to get him under contract. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush (or so they say).
It seems likely that a potential stumbling block in these negotiations will be a desire by the team to protect itself in the event the injury proves to be troublesome over the long term.
The Sox have secured favorable terms in recent contracts with players who have had some injury problems. They have shown a desire to limit the team’s financial exposure (i.e., Drew, Beckett, Lackey, etc) and it seems likely they will ask for similar protections in the Gonzalez deal.
It remains to be seen whether Gonzo and agent John Boggs would be receptive to such terms.
The team and the player are on the clock. Tick-tock.
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The Boston Globe and other sources are reporting that the Red Sox and San Diego Padres have agreed on a deal that will bring slugger Adrian Gonzalez to Boston in exchange for three minor leaguers.
The Globe is reporting that MLB sources have confirmed the Padres will receive P Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo and CF Rey Fuentes in the trade.
If the report turns out to be true, Red Sox Nation will have to give Theo Epstein a HUGE tip of the cap for finalizing the deal while retaining P Daniel Bard, SS Jose Iglesias and OF Ryan Kalish.
The cost is significant, but it could have been much worse. The organization seems to have prepared itself nicely to trade away a bevy of talent, both in terms of talent already withing the system and draft picks (the Red Sox will have as many as seven of the first 50 or 60 picks in the 2011 draft).
Kelly is the organization’s top prospect, but the club drafted another pitcher last June who may have more upside than Kelly… they selected RHP Anthony Renaudo, from LSU, with the 39th pick in the 2010 draft.
Renaudo was projected to be a top-five pick when the 2009 college season got underway, but he suffered an elbow injury and slid to the Sox in the supplemental round (the pick was one of the two picks the Red Sox received for Billy Wagner).
The Red Sox held off signing him and watched his progress during the Cape Cod League season—where he impressed everyone—before signing him at the eleventh hour.
He has an extremely high ceiling. Some of the luster wore off Kelly’s prospect status last season, and some scouts now have him rated as a middle-of-the-rotation talent, whereas most observers believe Renaudo can become a top-of-the-rotation horse.
Rizzo is an excellent prospect who will likely start the 2011 season in Triple-A with the Padres. But with Gonzalez in the fold, the Red Sox don’t need a first baseman, so Rizzo and fellow prospect Lars Anderson both become expendable.
Fuentes is an athletic prospect who spent last year in A-ball, but he doesn’t project to have much in the way of power, therefore his upside is somewhat limited.
Frankly, I thought A-Gon would have cost the Red Sox considerably more in terms of talent.
So, with the parameters of the deal in place, the next step is for the Sox medical staff to review the medical reports on Gonzalez’ shoulder (which was operated on after the season finished).
If the reports check out, it’s a near-certainty the Red Sox will have a window in which to negotiate a long-term contract extension with Gonzalez before the trade gets finalized. (Guessing: seven years and $150 million?)
Look for the trade to become official early next week at the beginning of the winter meetings.
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The Red Sox may finally be on the verge of acquiring the bat that is the apple of GM Theo Epstein’s eye…and that bat doesn’t belong to either of the free agent outfielders (Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth) Epstein has been visiting this week.
Published reports indicate that Epstein may be closing in on a deal with former assistant Jed Hoyer, the general manager of the San Diego Padres, that will bring 1B Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. Those reports say the Red Sox will send a bevy of minor league prospects westward in the deal, to the exclusion of anyone on the Red Sox major league roster, but it says here that such reports are wishful thinking…I cannot imagine Hoyer trading A-Gon without getting back at least one young, INEXPENSIVE big-league player in return.
I will be writing a post in the next day or so that lays out the reasons Daniel Bard WILL NOT be included in the deal—and he should NOT be included in the deal—but it seems logical that any of the other Red Sox young hopefuls could be included in the deal. While Epstein & Company will try to keep SS Jose Iglesias from being included, it’s a near-certainty that Hoyer would want the blue-chipper as part of his haul from the Red Sox. If Epstein can hang on to Iglesias, he’ll be the front-runner for the 2011 MLB Executive of the Year.
My prediction: Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, Stolmy Pimental and Anthony Rizzo will go to the Padres in the deal.
Of course, prior to finalizing the deal and sending four quality players/prospects to the Padres, the Red Sox will insist on talking with Gonzalez about a contract extension—something in the vicinity of six-years and $120 million. The Sox will also want to take a look at the medical reports on Gonzalez to assure the slugger’s shoulder is recuperating properly after offseason surgery.
I then expect the Sox will spend another $20 million a year (for five or six years) on Carl Crawford, replacing Ellsbury’s speed atop the lineup with the former Tampa Bay outfielder.
Epstein has coveted Gonzalez, 28, since the middle of the 2009 season, and made an aborted attempt to acquire him at the 2009 trade deadline last winter, and then again at the 2010 trade deadline…all to no avail. But it would appear that he has the talent and the determination to make it happen this time around.
Hoyer will need to extract a sizeable haul from the Red Sox in order to justify the trade to Padres fans, just a few months after the team unexpectedly finished just one game out of the postseason. Gonzalez is the team’s most popular player, a native son with a great deal of crossover appeal with the team’s Mexican-American market. But he is due to make in excess of $6 million in 2011, and the Padres are working under significant financial constraints. They’ve admitted they can’t sign him and have come to the realization they need to trade him…and Hoyer knows he will never get more in return for A-Gon than he can right now.
Hoyer certainly knows Gonzalez is worth far more than two draft picks (which would be what the Padres would receive if he were to play out his contract and become a free agent next offseason). Add to that the fact that Hoyer would be handcuffed from trading the first baseman at the 2011 trade deadline if his team were in contention, as they were last season, and all signs point to a deal getting done this offseason…likely at the winter meetings next week.
By trading Gonzalez now, Hoyer will be able to fill the holes the club has entering the season while acquiring low-cost players that would remain under the team’s control for up to six years…and in today’s baseball climate those considerations are tantamount in a place like San Diego.
Hoyer and his assistant, Jason McLeod, who served as Boston’s scouting director until joining Hoyer in San Diego, are intimately familiar with the Red Sox farm system. They will likely insist on pitcher Casey Kelly and first baseman Anthony Rizzo in any deal. Additionally, they will want at least two more players/prospects…and with both Kelly and Rizzo at least another year away from being major-league ready, Hoyer will want to have someone to plug into the lineup to show an immediate return on the trade—that player will likely be Ellsbury. Lastly, pitching being what it is, they will want a pitcher in the deal…and with Pimental rising up the prospect rankings it seems likely he’ll be the one to go.
The cost won’t be cheap for the Red Sox, but they have a plethora of talent in the farm system right now. They will also have as many as seven picks among the first 50 or so picks at next June’s draft so they will have an opportunity to immediately replenish whatever they send west.
The timing is right on both sides of the table to get a deal done…it’s time to strike while the iron is hot!
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Adrian Beltre is in the Dominican Republic for David Ortiz’ charity golf tournament.
This afternoon he provided an exclusive interview to the Boston Globe in which he said, “There’s a lot going on right now, but I do hope I stay with the Red Sox.”
Was he speaking from the heart, or was the sound bite given to him by Scott Boras to keep the Red Sox front office biting at the bait on the agent’s hook?
Only time will tell, but it would be nice to think that Beltre understands the benefits of playing with a contender—in Fenway Park—in a perpetual playoff atmosphere.
His comments will serve to give the Red Sox Nation hope that he will return to the hot corner in Boston.
Here are a few more of Beltre’s comments—
“I got used to seeing the park full in the first inning and still full in the ninth inning. I liked that atmosphere…”.
“If everything was close to the same, I would go back to Boston. But we have to see. The number of years is what is important to me.”
“I would to play with these guys again, (they) are my friends and they made me feel part of the team. I was disappointed Victor (Martinez) left because he helped make me comfortable. But I had a feeling that would happen because he wasn’t happy with how (the Red Sox) approached (negotiations) with him. But I would still come back. I liked playing there and I want to be with a contender.”
Hmmm, does that mean if the years are right he might give the Red Sox a hometown discount to get a deal done?
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Among the myriad reports on the internet announcing that the NY Yankees have agreed to a deal with free agent closer Mariano Rivera (two years, $30 million) comes this little ditty: Sports Illustrated reporter Jon Heyman says the Red Sox offered Rivera more money and more years than the Yankees!
Wow!
It makes you wonder what would have happened with Jonathan Papelbon if the Sox had been able to land Rivera…would they have non-tendered him?
What does the pursuit of Rivera say about the ball club’s confidence in Papelbon? It may underscore the fact this will be Pappy’s last year with The Olde Towne Team, and it may emphasize they have questions as to whether Daniel Bard is ready to assume the closer’s mantle in 2012 (Rivera would have given him another year or two to learn the ropes and grow into the role).
One thing is for certain: The Red Sox went after the Yankees’ jugular on this one!
The hot stove is starting to heat up…
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Sports Illustrated and ESPN are both reporting that Red Sox team captain Jason Varitek will return to the team for the 2011 season, agreeing to terms with the club on a one-year, $2 million deal that will contain an additional $300,000 in incentives, based on playing time.
Varitek, 39, had not been offered arbitration by the team prior to last week’s deadline, and reports hinted the Los Angeles Dodgers might be interested in luring him westward to serve as a part-time catcher.
This is the way this situation was supposed to resolve itself. It was impossible to imagine Varitek wearing another uniform for the last year, or two, of his career.
I had visions of Dwight Evans, who signed a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles when the Red Sox turned their back on him at the end of his career. “Dewey” spent an inglorious season in Baltimore, and regretted having spent that single season in a uniform other than his beloved Red Sox.
I imagined interviewing Varitek ten years from now, having him tell me that he regretted having gone to the Dodgers for one last (smallish) pay day.
Instead, Varitek will return to the Sox for his 15th season, backing up and mentoring new backstop Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who will replace C/1B Victor Martinez after he signed a free-agent contract with the Tigers last week.
But V-Mart’s departure cleared the way for V-Tek to return to Boston.
Saltalamacchia’s reaction to the news? “That’s great… (I’m) thrilled he’s coming back.”
So is Red Sox Nation, Jarrod!
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Dave Cameron, of FanGraphs.com, posted an interesting <a href=”http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/beltres-market-value/”>article</a > this morning projecting the value of Adrian Beltre on the free agent market at 3 years, $45 million.
Agent Scott Boras wanted a multi-year deal for his client last winter… ultimately, he had to settle on a one-year deal with a low-end player option for 2011 (it’s a $5MM player option that becomes $10MM when he makes 640 plate appearances this year — which seems like a safe bet if he remains healthy). Based on the way he has played this year, it’s a foregone conclusion he will decline the option and hit the free agent market for the second consecutive year.
And it’s a near-certainty he’ll be a Type A free agent.
So what are the Sox to do? They don’t have a big-league-ready third baseman in the farm system… and the jury is out on how quickly Lars Anderson might be ready to take over at first (which would enable Kevin Youkilis to move back across the diamond to third base). Agent Scott Boras is likely to demand a 4- or 5-year deal and will take his client deep into free agency to get what he wants, so they will either have to pay the big bucks early or move on and take the draft picks… they will not want to get burned again by the uber-agent (like they did with 1B Mark Teixeira).
Beltre has been a great addition to the clubhouse and a perfect fit in the lineup, but the truth is he has only had two exceptional seasons (2004 and 2010) and GM Theo Epstein is not inclined to invest heavily in inconsistent ballplayers. So it says here they take the draft picks.
The front office could pursue the Adrian Gonzalez trade with the San Diego Padres. They could also look to re-sign soon-to-be free agent Billy Hall and ask him to hold a place in the lineup until Lars (or maybe Anthony Rizzo) is ready.
Or they could look to fill the void through free agency. Someone like Jorge Cantu or Jhonny Peralta or Ty Wiggington could fill the bill… or even Miguel Tejada.
Whatever happens, it will be an interesting decision, with long-term implications.
I think they get Gonzalez, IF the Padres are serious about dealing the face of their franchise… and it says here they’ll have to ship Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson westward to get the deal done.
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When I did the write-up after my interview with new Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish last year, I predicted that he would be a BIG hit with Red Sox Nation when he finally arrived in Boston (though I’ll admit that I thought he’d get here in 2011, not 2010).
I discussed his experience as a football player and the fact that he seemed to bring a gridiron toughness to the baseball diamond nearly every single day… and I suggested he would eventually be the successor to Trot Nixon as the head of the group of hard-nosed Red Sox players affectionately known as, “The Dirt Dogs”.
How am I doing so far?
This article isn’t about the fact that he’s hitting .500 three games into his pro career, it is not about the fact that he misplayed a ball in front of The Green Monster the other night (left field at Fenway is notorious for challenging even veteran left fielders), and it’s not about the fact that he has already thrown out a runner trying to score at home plate.
It’s about what happened last night at home plate, and afterwards.
In the 7th inning of a game in which his team trailed by four runs, Kalish stood at second base thanks to a double he had ripped into center field. With one out, teammate Daniel Nava singled into right field and the young left fielder did what he was supposed to do—he tried to score.
As Kalish approached, Cleveland catcher Carlos Santana stood astride the plate, much in the same way we have seen Jason Varitek do a hundred times—left leg extended to block the plate as he looked towards the right side of the diamond awaiting the throw.
It was the proverbial bang-bang play at the plate—ball and runner arrived simultaneously, Santana turned to apply the tag, and Kalish lowered his shoulder as if he were a middle linebacker making a tackle at the goal line on fourth down.
Kalish inadvertently and unintentionally hit him a bit low, in the vicinity of the left knee. As he bowled over the young backstop, the catcher’s knee bent backwards and outwards, apparently in a way that the human body is not designed to bend.
Santana held onto the ball. Kalish was called out by umpire Mike Dimuro. It was a good, hard baseball play—a Dirt Dog play.
But Santana did not bounce right back to his feet. He lay on the ground in obvious pain for nearly 15 minutes, eventually having his left leg immobilized in an air cast before being transported off the field on the back of a golf cart. NESN played the replay several times.
It was a clean play, with a seemingly ugly result.
Red Sox fans demonstrated once again why they are the BEST fans in all of sports by giving Santana a standing ovation as he was taken from the field (and for all of you haters out there, it isn’t just me saying so—Forbes Magazine today released it’s list of the top fans in all of sports, and Sox fans were rated Numero Uno)
This was baseball the way it was meant to be played.
There was no Manny Ramirez hot dog in Kalish. He wasn’t wearing shoulder pads and a helmet, but he may as well have been. The play was precisely illustrative of the reason I predicted he will be a fan favorite here in Boston for many years to come. I REALLY like the way this kid plays the game.
There was some potentially good news in the aftermath, as preliminary tests suggest Santana may have avoided a serious knee injury. He was shipped back to Cleveland this morning for an MRI, but Indians manager Manny Acta sounded a hopeful note in the vistor’s dressing room last night.
In the Red Sox dugout, manager Terry Francona said he did not even want to see the replay. For his part, Kalish said: “I knew it was bad. I just knew it was something bad and I don’t want to watch it.”
He would later demonstrate a lot of class, calling Santana on the phone to express his remorse for the outcome of the play. Afterwards, Kalish said: “It was a hard slide. I’ve already talked to him and he’s doing a lot better than they thought. I feel awful.”
This was baseball the way it was meant to be played. This wasn’t Pete Rose taking a cheap shot by bowling over catcher Ray Fosse in an All-Star game, this was hard baseball being played by a pair of good young prospects as the Dog Days of August got underway.
This morning, I took my daily gander at bleacherreport.com, a site where I often contribute articles, and unfortunately spied an article by Tom Dubberke (who is a self-proclaimed baseball enthusiast and SF Giants fan).
The title of the article was: “Cleveland Indians Catcher Carlos Santana Got What He Deserved.” It made me cringe! He said Santana positioned himself in the wrong manner in the wrong place while trying to block the plate and, thus, “got what he deserved.”
Can you imagine that?
You can tell good ol’ Tom never played a game behind the plate. I did… for MANY years.
I was never taught to position myself at the corner of the plate with my knee positioned just so, as good ‘ol Tom asserts. I was taught to block access to the plate… and I typically did so in much the same way as Varitek routinely does and Santana did last night (although I usually put more of my big body in front of the plate, forcing the runner to go through my torso, instead of at my leg).
As big as I am, I took more than my share of lumps in home plate collisions, usually ending up on my back with my bell rung after my head bounced off the ground. It was good, hard baseball (or softball). I did what I was trained to do and the runner did what he was trained to do. Sometimes he was out, and sometimes he was safe. But no one ever got injured.
These plays happen all of the time, and rarely is anyone ever hurt. Injuries like last night are the exception, not the rule, and no one EVER ‘deserves’ an injury! (Do you hear that, Tom?!)
I tip my cap to Kalish and Santana. I pray the tests on the Indians catcher show nothing more than a sprain, and that he’ll be back behind the plate in a week or so.
I also pray that people like Tom Dubberke use better judgment when penning articles, especially when they show so little understanding for how the game is taught and played.
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