Kuzul

If it weren’t already evident that AJ Burnett’s big long-term contract was dictating the decisions made by the Yankees front office, it is now. 

After the Yankees cruised through the American League Division series with just three starters, the Yankees announced Monday morning that they will use a fourth starter in the American League Championship series. That fourth starter will be AJ Burnett.

Yankees fans have never been fed up with a pitcher more than they have AJ Burnett. And for a good reason. This season has been a disastrous one for the 33-year-old, and that is just one of the many reasons why this decision makes no sense.

First off, if the Yankees feel they need a fourth starter, why didn’t they initially have one in the divisional series? Furthermore, there was no evidence in the ALDS that a fourth starter was needed. After all, they never lost a game.

The Yankees have almost a week off between the last game of the ALDS and the first game of the ALCS. That rest will make it even easier for all the starters to get back into shape, especially CC Sabathia, who would potentially pitch three games.

If you insert Burnett into the fourth spot in the rotation, CC Sabathia would pitch Game 5, eliminating the possibility of him pitching a possible Game 7. If you can’t throw your ace in Game 7, you have something to worry about.

Then, there is the simplest argument of them all: Burnett is not the best the Yankees have. Even if they believe that a fourth starter is necessary, Burnett is not their best option.

With a 5.26 ERA on the season, and a 7.94 ERA in his final three regular-season starts, Burnett should be out of contention for a starting spot. The Yankees mistakenly left Ivan Nova and Javier Vazquez off the roster, but they still left Dustin Moseley.

Now, of course you would not be comfortable putting Moseley on the mound in the ALCS. He, too, has an ERA of almost five, and he has never started a postseason game. However, as bad a case as Moseley has, Burnett’s is worse. Bottom line: neither Burnett nor Moseley is fit for a postseason start, but if you really feel you need a fourth starter, Moseley would give you a better chance to win.

Although they likely don’t believe it, you will surely hear the Yankees sing the same song they have sang all year: “Burnett has great stuff, and he has potential to pitch a great game.” 

Sure, he has potential to pitch a great game. But so does Kerry Wood, or Mariano Rivera, or Joba Chamberlain, or Kei Igawa. It’s the postseason. You need starters who give you a chance to win nearly 100 percent of the time. Burnett is not that guy, regardless of what he can do.

The Yankees made this decision without any regard to winning. They instead made this decision because they are afraid to hurt Burnett’s feelings. He will be here for another three years, and the Yankees don’t want to upset someone who will likely be essential to their future success.

In the Yankees’ history, only one pitcher has finished the season with at least 30 starts and an ERA above five. That pitcher is AJ Burnett. The Yankees have treated him better than ever, regardless of his horrible numbers. They have made sure he is happy and comfortable without any regard to the team’s success. That’s fine in April, that’s even fine in August. But in October, it should not be tolerated.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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With the postseason set to begin on Wednesday, the Yankees announced their roster for the American League Division series against the Twins. As expected, AJ Burnett is on the roster––although he is not in the starting rotation––while Ivan Nova and Javier Vazquez has been left out.

Now, it would seem to be a ridiculous decision to not include your fifth highest player on your postseason roster. However, looking deeply into the decisions made, the Yankees may have surpassed that would-be ridiculous decision by including Burnett.

The starters for the Yankees are set. CC Sabathia will pitch Game one, Phil Hughes will pitch Game two, and Andy Pettitte will pitch Game three. Don’t bother thinking that the Yankees might add someone into that mix; the Yankees feel this is their best chance to win, and they will be eliminated before they are forced to change that plan.

Burnett’s place on the team then becomes a relief pitcher. His 5.26 ERA in 33 starts this year would be enough to stop me from even considering putting him in a game, but that doesn’t seem to jive with the Yankees organization. 

Then how’s this for a change: Burnett has pitched in 281 games in his career. Just four of them were in relief. In the past six years, he has pitched in just two games in relief, facing an insignificant 14 batters.

Vazquez and Nova, on the other hand, have both pitched in relief this season. Vazquez is certainly no stranger to the bullpen this year, and Nova is young enough to adapt to any position where he is needed. (In fact, Nova has had more relief appearances in his rookie season than Burnett has had in the past six years.)

This is not to say that Vazquez and Nova would be great go-to guys out of the pen. But, Burnett is not that go-to guy either. Vazquez and Nova are much better equipped to succeed in those situations than Burnett is.

For arguments sake, let’s assume that the Yankees included Burnett on the postseason roster for a possible starting role. 

In this case, you would be taking a significantly larger risk with Burnett than you would with Nova. Burnett’s ERA in his past three starts is pushing eight, while Nova’s is just south of five. Again, neither of them are opening eyes, but Nova would give you a better chance to win. 

What’s my point? Burnett is useless on the Yankees roster at this point. By adding Vazquez or Nova over Burnett, you would at least give yourself a better chance to win. 

The only suitable reason Burnett is on the postseason roster is due to the fact that he is making a lot of money, and will continue to for three more years. Vazquez, on the other hand, will be gone next season, and the Yankees have zero monetary obligation to Nova at this point.

As hard as it may be, the Yankees need to put money aside and make the right choice. In any given context––as a starter or reliever––Vazquez and Nova present you with either more experience, or a better possibility of success. This is not 2009; the Yankees are not going to cruise through the playoffs. They need all the help they can get, and Burnett simply falls short.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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While the Cy Young debate in the American League is getting a lot of attention, the Most Valuable Player award is not. Although it is discussed occasionally, people are not giving it the attention that it deserves.

The front-runner(s) at this point are Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton. All have had incredible seasons, but can also be easily argued against. If you ask me, this debate will come down to the wire, because no one is running away with it.

Robinson Cano: 

Pros: The 27 year-old second baseman has had a season to remember. He is hitting .314, with a career high 28 home runs, 55 walks and 106 runs batted in. He is second in the American League with 193 hits. His cluch stat of 0.77 is the highest of his career, and his time filling in for Alex Rodriguez as the clean-up hitter most likely kept the Yankees in contention. 

Cons: After a break-out first half where he hit .336, Cano has declined throughout the entire season, hitting just .287 in the second half of the season.

Josh Hamilton:

Pros: Hamilton leads all of Major League Baseball with 7.9 wins above replacement. His .359 batting average is also the best in baseball, along with his .447 wOBA. His clutch stat of 0.92 is well above average as well. 

Cons: Josh has played just 131 games this season due to a recent rib cage injury. Although he would not be the first player to win the MVP with few games played (Joe Mauer won it last year with just 135 games played) he has missed the most essential part of the season, thus reducing his value.

Miguel Cabrera:

Pros: Cabrera has the second best batting average in the league at .328. He has 38 home runs, the most for any candidate. His .428 wOBA is not only a career high, but it is the second best in the American League. Cabrera has a high clutch stat as well, at 0.92, the same as Josh Hamilton.

Cons: Cabrera hasn’t played in a meaningful game since early in the season. Like Cano, he has declined as the season has progressed, hitting 41 points lower in the second half compared to the first half. 

Everyone of these players is deserving of the award. However, it will be difficult to vote for any of them, considering their pros and cons are essentially equally weighed. This race is going to come down to sole opinion, because no mathematical or observational data justifies giving the award away to either Cano, Hamilton, or Cabrera. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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Since 1920, 391 Yankees pitchers have had a seasonal ERA of at least 5.30. Of all those pitchers, no pitcher has been allowed to pitch as many innings as A.J. Burnett.

Why? Because Burnett is on a five-year deal, and he is making $16.5 million this season. Essentially, he is here to stay. It is mentally very difficult to waste $16.5 million dollars.

In 2010, Burnett is working on the worst ERA of his career. He is also stacking up the most hits per nine innings in a season, and the most home runs per nine innings. His velocity and strike percentage are also way down.

Burnett is not having a good season by anyone’s standards. You can sit through a Joe Girardi press conference and listen to myths about Burnett’s stuff, but results are results, and Burnett is simply not performing. 

Like I said earlier, the Yankees have stuck with Burnett all the way through this mess, and that is likely due to his big, long-term contract. Say all you want about his potential, but Javier Vazquez has potential too, and you didn’t see the Yankees treat him very well.

So here is my question to you: if you could avoid using one of your worst starting pitchers in the playoffs, would you?

With the playoffs looming, the Yankees are expected to have Burnett in the postseason starting rotation. Here is my message to the Yankees: you don’t need to have Burnett start, so don’t do it.

By now you are aware of Major League Baseball’s brilliant ability to prolong the playoffs. However, in this case, it may actually help the Yankees. Due to the two days off in between games two and three, the Yankees could easily get by on a three-man rotation, just like they did last year.

CC Sabathia would pitch game one, and then pitch on short rest in game four. Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes would fill in the other two slots in some undetermined order.

This is all assuming that Pettitte can perform. In two starts since returning from the disabled list, Pettitte has had one great start and one horrible start. Hopefully he’lll be on his game as he usually is.

Hughes, the 24 year-old right-hander, has been a bit shaky in the past month, but his lights-out start last time out against the Red Sox was enough to make us believe that he can return to his early to mid-season form.

Bottom line: the Yankees have a much better chance to win in the postseason with a three-man rotation than they do with four-man rotation that includes Burnett.

Burnett has been everything the Yankees feared this season. Money and a desire to keep him happy are not enough to allow this pitcher to sink the Yankees in the playoffs. The Yankees can get by without trouble with a three-man rotation. Avoiding Burnett is possible, and it should be done.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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If you can understand correlations, you can begin to understand something essential to success in baseball. Why? Because correlations show how one variable affects another variable.

For example, we can see how strikeouts influence runs scored, and we would find that there is no notable correlation (actually true). 

The dictionary describes a correlation as a “mutual relationship.” This relationship can prove that two things affect or do not affect each other. 

In this case, we are going to look at how home runs affect runs scored per game. You would assume that there would be a direct correlation, meaning the more home runs you hit, the more runs you score. 

Looking at data from 2010, just a week away from the end of the season, we find something very interesting.

If we were to plot every team on a graph, showing home runs on the y-axis, and runs scored on the x-axis, what we would see is that home runs do, in fact, affect runs scored. The graph shows a general trend of “up and to the right,” suggesting a positive correlation. (See graph)

However, there is one point that does not fit that trend. For some reason, the team that hit the most home runs did not score the most runs per game. According to our established positive correlation, that point should be considered an outlier. And what do you do when you have an outlier? You investigate it.

As it turns out, the team that is the outlier is the Toronto Blue Jays. 

At first you would assume that the league leader in home runs, Jose Bautista, has something to do with it. After all, if it weren’t for him, the Blue Jays would not have the league lead in home runs, and would fit in on the graph.

But the only way that he could hit that many home runs and not equally affect runs scored would be if he hit a disproportionate amount of home runs without runners on base. However, he hits 46% of his home runs when runners are not on base, much better than the league average of over 57%.

If that is the case, then we need to disregard our initial assumption, and instead go with a more logical approach. Instead of it being player-related, it must be team-related.

As it turns out, the Blue Jays are stacked with hitters that hit a bunch of home runs, while not doing much else.

In all of Major League Baseball in 2010, 22 players have at least 20 home runs, a batting average of at most .270, and a on-base-percentage of no greater than .333. Of those 22 players, four of them are on the Blue Jays. That’s the most on any team in all of baseball.

Our final conclusion is that hitting a lot of home runs does not mean you will help your team. In order to produce an above average amount of runs, a player must be valuable in all areas: home runs, batting average, and on-base-percentage.

For the Blue Jays, it has not helped to have a bunch of home run-friendly players, but it has helped us to identify something very important. It is now up to teams to apply this knowledge to off-season signings. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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As the New York Yankees thrust towards the playoffs, with a magic number of three as of this writing, some postseason roster decisions still loom large.

At this point, the concern for the Yankees is their pitching. Yes, CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and most of the bullpen will be fine. But beyond that (the other two starters) the Yankees have some issues.

A.J. Burnett’s 4.33 ERA in his past five starts is surprisingly an improvement, but that is not too telling considering his season ERA is north of five. In his past 10 starts, Burnett has pitched anywhere from three and one-third innings, to eight innings. He touched on virtually every number in between as well. 

Andy Pettitte, a notably 38-year-old left-hander, has pitched two games since coming off the disabled list with a groin injury. His first start was a brilliant six-inning affair, during which he surrendered just one run on three hits. Five days later, he coughed up 10 hits and six earned in three and one-third innings against the Red Sox.

What am I getting at? You cannot rely on either of these pitchers into the playoffs; or, to put it a little nicer, you should at least have a backup.

That is where Ivan Nova comes in. Nova has pitched eight games this season for the Yankees, including a stunning, two-run, five and two-thirds innings start against the division rival Rays. Consequently, he finds himself on the brink of a postseason stint. If you ask me, he not only deserves it, but the Yankees need it.

Looking up and down the Yankees active roster, no one is better suited to back up one of the Yankees starters than Nova is.

Now, this is not to say that Burnett and Pettitte cannot be effective. Burnett has pitched a no-hitter, and Pettitte is one of the best pitchers of his era. Sure, they both deserve to be in the starting rotation in the first round of the playoffs, but don’t tell me you are comfortable without a backup.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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The 2010 Cy Young conversation had been a fascinating debate. It had raised questions about how to determine if a pitcher is successful, and the value of certain statistics. 

But, unlike other years, the 2010 debate has recently become quite a silly argument as the season comes to a close.

The main discussion has been between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. David Price and Francisco Liriano are also in the discussion, but for some reason have not been given nearly as much attention as the other two.

If we were to do a raw breakdown of earned run average, from smallest to largest, the four candidates would come out in this order: Hernandez, Price, Sabathia, Liriano.

Already, you see how ridiculous the debate has become. At this point, Sabathia is as close to the front-runner as you can be, but there are two people who are already leading him in one of the most important statistics, ERA.

But clearly ERA is not the only statistic.

You can argue for hours about which pitcher is most deserving of the award. You can examine statistics, game-by-game stats, or simply recall dominating starts throughout the season. Nonetheless, we need to guard against Sabathia winning the award and teach people that being on a good team does not make you a better pitcher.

For arguments sake, let’s examine the popular Hernandez vs. Sabathia battle. If you look across all the major statistics (ERA, W-L record, IP, SO, BB, H and HR) Sabathia only outdoes Hernandez in the W-L department. If you ask me, that is completely insignificant.

Of all the stats we looked at, W-L records are the least representative of a pitchers ability. Why? Because a pitcher can pitch the best game of his life and still lose the game. It all depends on how good your team’s offense is (a factor you do not contribute to as a pitcher in the AL) and the pitcher you are opposing.

Clearly Sabathia is the beneficiary of the better offense. The Yankees have scored the most runs in the Majors, the Mariners have scored the least. The Yankees have the best record in the Majors, the Mariners have the second worst.

To further express these lopsided numbers, consider run support. In games Hernandez has started, his team has scored 3.16 runs/game on average. On the other hand, Sabathia enjoys 5.99 runs/game.

Clearly Sabathia is going to win more games. His team scores more runs for him, his team has a better bullpen to hold leads, and his team is far superior in every possible aspect of the game.

Since 1920, 34,741 pitchers have thrown a quality start (six or more innings pitched and three runs or less) and lost the game. Wins for a pitcher are influenced by many outside factors, and thus should not be considered for the Cy Young award.

All in all, I would hate to see Felix Hernandez—the league leader in ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched—be stripped of an award he clearly deserves simply because he is on a bad team. Even if you consider Wins, Hernandez outdoes Sabathia in nearly every pitching category. 

Let’s stop associating bad teams with bad players. After all, Cy Young was a great pitcher, but The Cleveland Spiders only made it to the playoffs once.

UPDATE There is a common counter-argument that Hernandez has the benefit of pitching in low-pressure (low leverage) situations, while Sabathia is always under pressure (high leverage). If we level the playing field and just look at these two players stats under high leverage (high pressure) situations, Hernandez is still better. He has a .204 BAA while Sabathia has a .246 BAA. Hernandez also has a better SO/BB ratio of 4.50, opposed to Sabathia’s 4.29. 

It is also a misconception that Hernandez pitches under less pressure. Hernandez’s average leverage index is 0.99, while Sabathia’s is 0.94. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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Last Monday, the Yankees visited the Rays in St. Petersburg, Fla. for one of the most anticipated series in the 2010 season.

The race has been tightly packed all season, with no team leading by more 2 1/2 games since July 26.

In the last five days, there have been three flip-flops for the division lead. With another four game set about to happen between these two teams in Yankee Stadium, you can expect the seesaw to keep on tilting.

One team will come away with the division, and it will be by a very small margin. Here are 10 reasons why the Yankees need the division more than Tampa Bay.

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Joe Torre is undoubtedly one of the most successful managers in sports history. Starting as a manager for the Yankees in 1996, Torre went on to manage the team for 12 straight years, bringing them to the playoffs in each year. Also add in four championships.

At the end of the 2007 season, Joe Girardi took over as the Yankees manager, and Torre went on to manage the Dodgers. Three years later, he has announced that he will be stepping down as manager of the Dodgers in 2011, and will hand over the job to Don Mattingly.

Here are the top five lowest points of Joe Torre’s illustrious career.

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If there were ever a climax for the instant replay debate in baseball, it came on the night of September 15, 2010, when Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter pulled a “Tom Cruise” when batting in the top of the seventh inning.

With one out, and the Yankees down a run, Jeter squared to bunt on the first pitch of the at-bat. It was an inside pitch, and Jeter screamed in agony as the ball bounced back on to the field. He was awarded first base. However, video evidence clearly showed that the ball hit the knob of the bat, never touching Jeter’s hand.

To make matters worse, Rays manager Joe Maddon was ejected for trying to do good for the baseball community. Furthermore, Curtis Granderson immediately followed with a two-run home run, giving the Yankees the lead. Luckily, the Rays ended up rightfully winning the game.

A day later, 24 managers were surveyed, asking if they thought baseball needed instant replay. Eighteen said baseball needed replay, just two opposed, and four decided not to comment.

Almost a year ago, the Twins got screwed in the first round of the playoffs, when Joe Mauer hit a ball down the left field line. It was called foul, but video evidence showed that it was indeed fair.

It becomes clearer everyday that baseball needs replay.

It wouldn’t be very difficult. Simply put an umpire in a booth next to the press box and put a television screen in front of him. If the umpires decide that a call should be reviewed, they would go to a phone that would be placed on the field, ask the umpire in the booth what the correct call is, and the right call will prevail. No call will ever be missed.

Sitting at home watching the game, we constantly see replays revealing missed calls by the umpire. Why should fans have access to essential evidence that the umpire do not?

One of the counter-arguments would be that the game would be slowed down. Using Wednesday night as an example, it took about three minutes for the umpires to discuss the call and then argue with Joe Maddon. If replay were instated, it would have taken 10 or 15 seconds to determine that Jeter should have been out. Less time, no arguing. If that isn’t your objective, we have a problem.

Now, it should be noted that baseball has made steps to advance. A couple years ago, Major League Baseball threw us replay lobbyists a bone when they gave umpires the ability to look at video evidence for home run calls.

But here is my question: why stop at home runs? We have the technology to get every call right. If you care enough to get home run calls right, why do you not care about getting other calls right?

With all the new video camera angles and high definition footage, more inconsistencies are being uncovered. Instead of fighting over these inconsistencies, let’s tackle them by using the same technology that prompted the problem. Say yes to replay, say yes to change, say yes to the right answer.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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