Kuzul

Yankee fans were unhappy—to say the least—on Monday night, when the Yankees surrendered first place to the Rays for the first time since August 3. Tuesday night, the Yankees got first place back, and breathed a sigh of relief.

Amidst all that anger came an interesting thought: what if, by some chance, the Yankees didn’t win the division?

That question is easy enough to answer. They would most likely win the Wild Card, and would be playing the Twins in the first round instead of the Rangers. They would not have home field advantage either.

Interestingly enough, that road really wouldn’t be so bad for the Yankees. In fact, it may even be the preferred road to take.

The Twins do have the better record, but the Yankees are much better equipped to take on the Twins as opposed to the Rangers.

First off, the Yankees have a .667 winning percentage against the Twins, and a .500 percentage against the Rangers. Although that is a small sample, it is telling. (Not to mention the trouble the Yankees had with the Rangers just this past weekend.)

Another thing to consider is that the Twins have just one left-handed starter, while the Rangers have two, one of which is Cliff Lee who the Yankees can’t seem to beat. That’s significant considering seven Yankee hitters have batting averages below .275 against lefties this year, including key hitters Alex Rodriguez (.244 vs. lefties), Mark Teixeira (.260), and Nick Swisher (.266). As a team, they hit just .259 against lefties, the sixth lowest in the American League.

Furthermore, the one lefty Twins starter, Fransico Liriano, has not overpowered the Yankees throughout his career. Despite his 3.12 career ERA against New York, he is 0-2 in the games he has started against them. 

In terms of hitting, the Rangers and Twins are nearly tied for the league lead in batting average, with the Rangers leading by an insignificant .001. However, the Yankees would have less trouble facing the Twins, who no longer have Justin Morneau. As we saw over the weekend, the Yankees have trouble holding down the Rangers.

What about home field advantage? It is true that losing the division would mean losing home field advantage. But the Yankees are still a very good team on the road. Before the Yankees recent crash, they had a .575 winning percentage on the road. Although their home percentage is much better, the Yankees would benefit from playing a worse team on the road.

It is a crazy notion, but the Yankees would likely be much better off losing their next couple of battles to win the war. No team ever wants to lose, but for the Yankees, winning today may mean losing tomorrow.  

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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When you glance at Derek Jeter’s .261 batting average in 2010, the first thing you ask yourself is: Do I need glasses.

Why?

Because, barring an extremely unprecedented surge, Jeter is on pace to hit below .300 for the first time  since 2002. More concerning, it will be his lowest batting average since 1995, his first season, when he played just 15 games.

So what is it? What is happening to the Captain?

It isn’t hard to find the problem. Jeter’s line drive ratio is at a career low, his ground ball ratio is at a career high, and his fly ball ratio is at a career low.

Clearly, Jeter is all out of whack.

His home run per fly ball ratio is the closet to his career average of all his statistics. If he gets good wood on the ball, he still can hit it hard. The problem, though, is that he isn’t getting good wood on the ball.

Why is that?

He isn’t being pitched any differently. He sees every pitch nearly the same amount of times as he had in the past. He also doesn’t swing anymore than he had in the past.

A common argument is that Jeter cannot handle certain pitches anymore.

However, Jeter’s w values, a way of measuring a players success against a certain type of pitch, are equally down for every pitch. 

This suggests he is having problems with all pitches.

What we do find in 2010 that differs from his past is that Jeter swings at a much higher percentage of pitches outside the strike-zone. To be exact, 28.4% of the pitches he swings at are out of the strike-zone, well above his career average of 20.4%, and a career high by far.

The ability to explain Jeter’s decline is very good news for Yankee fans.

If we could not pinpoint the problem, it would mean Jeter was simply losing his ability to play baseball. But his problem is not a physical problem (age), it is a mental problem.

For some reason, Jeter has lost the ability to identify a strike.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner will have an MRI performed on his right wrist due to what has become an ongoing problem.

Gardner has had trouble with his wrist since June 27, when he was hit by a pitch during the Yankees interleague series with the Dodgers. 

Gardner says that he hasn’t “felt like it was 100 percent,” and says that, although it has not hindered his ability to bat, the nagging pain is “definitely not helping matters.”

Gardner, who had six hits in his last 27 at-bats, was pinch-hit for by Austin Kearns in the sixth inning of Saturday nights game, after he went 0-for-2 with a walk.

Gardner will not play Sunday, although he was not slated to do so anyway. He expects to have the MRI performed on Monday just before the Yankees open up a three-game set against the Rays in St. Petersburg, Fla. 

Gardner said that he “should be fine” but wants to be cautious.

Gardner, 26, is hitting .229 since the injury occurred on June 27. In that time, he has watched his batting average decline from .317 to .280.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter and Digg.

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Picture this: a game lasts over four hours, uses 41 players, features 374 pitches, has two blown saves, and ends in a walk-off hit by pitch—by Mariano Rivera.

Welcome to Yankees–Rangers, September 11 (and part of 12), 2010

It was a peculiar game to say the least, and it was no surprise that such an odd game was perpetuated by a series of unorthodox managerial moves. This game featured moves as simple as a pinch hitter, to as questionable as a 3-0 sac bunt.

Back up. A 3-0 sac bunt? In the top of the ninth inning, already leading by one run, the Yankees had a runner on second and nobody out. Eager to get the run in, Yankees manager Joe Girardi called for a sac bunt, even after the count had been worked to 3-0.

As if this doesn’t sound ridiculous enough, it should be pointed out that it was the first sac bunt on a 3-0 count in all of Major League Baseball this season. 

Why is it such a ridiculous thing to do, and thus so rare? To start, the league combined has a .413 batting average and a .893 slugging percentage on a 3-0 count, so sac bunting becomes just a waste.

Furthermore, if you look deeper, sac bunting with a runner on second and nobody out not only destroys the at-bat, but also destroys the inning.

Based on run expectancy data collected from 1999-2002, the Yankees had a run expectancy of 1.189 when they had a runner on second and nobody out. After the sac bunt, now with a runner on third and one out, their run expectancy actually decreased to .983.

So, what Girardi thought was helping his team actually sunk them in two ways: he destroyed a great chance to get a hit with a 3-0 count, and he destroyed a great chance to score with a runner on second and nobody out.

Thus, the Yankees failed to score and lost the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter and Digg.

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Yankees’ starter Andy Pettitte is inching closer to his return. If all goes according to plan, he could return right before a key series against the Rays in New York, exactly one month after going on the disabled list with an injured groin.

Pettitte threw a scoreless four innings in a minor league rehab start for Double-A Trenton on Thursday. The outing was pain free, a big step in the right direction.

If any of the Yankees’ minor league teams are still playing on Tuesday, the Yankees will likely send him down to pitch one more rehab game before returning to the Majors. If a minor league team is not playing, the Yankees could either have him throw a simulated game, or have him return to the Majors, the latter being unlikely.

Regardless of where he pitches, the Yankees would like him to throw five innings and 85 pitches. That would have him in good position to throw 100 pitches in a Major League start. 

Pettitte, 38 years old, last pitched on July 18 before suffering a groin injury. He was 11-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 18 starts this season.

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2010 presents us with some of the most compelling playoff races in recent history. With the Padres slipping in the NL West, the Phillies taking over in the NL East, and possibly the two best teams in baseball — the Rays and Yankees — battling it out in the AL East, the last 20 games could bring about many surprises.

The NL West is possible the most inspiring story. With the Padres as the darling team all season, the Giants and Rockies are making a push as San Diego is beginning to have trouble holding on atop the division. The NL East is also interesting, with the Braves making way for the Phillies to swoop into first place. And, of course, the Yankees and Rays battling it out with the Red Sox also in the mix for a possible wild card spot.

Here are the power rankings for the 10 teams that look poised or have a chance at making the 2010 MLB playoffs.

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is not ready to reveal the Yankees’ playoff pitching scene just yet. 

Cashman said that everyone besides CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera is going to have to earn a role on the postseason roster.

Theoretically, rookie Ivan Nova could earn a spot over A.J. Burnett or Javier Vazquez.

“Everything will be decided in these last three weeks,” Cashman said Wednesday night. “The guys who we think give us the best chance to win are the guys who are going to pitch.”

Andy Pettitte threw four rehab innings at Yankees Double-A Trenton Thursday. He threw four scoreless innings while letting up just two hits. Cashman said that he will likely make another rehab start before returning to the Yankees.

Cashman did not comment about the status of individual starters. He added that “nothing is guaranteed for anyone” besides CC Sabathia, and that it is likely that pitchers will be moved around between the bullpen and starting rotation.

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Yankees starting pitcher Andy Pettitte made a rehab start Thursday night for Double-A Trenton, as part of his recovery from a groin injury.

In game two of the playoffs, Pettitte threw four innings. He allowed two hits, walked one, and struck out four. He threw 51 pitches and allowed no runs.

“It felt good to get back on the mound. It was a step in the right direction,” said Pettitte after the game. “There weren’t any problems. It was a good step to do it in a game…Now I’ll meet with [manager] Joe [Girardi] and [pitching coach] Dave Eiland and the trainers and we’ll figure out if we’ll do one more of these or go ahead and go.”

Pettitte, 38, has not pitched since July 18 due to a groin injury. In 18 starts this season, he was 11-2 with an ERA of 2.88.

Follow me on Twitter and join me on Facebook. Contact me at jess@jesskcoleman.com. Find this article and more news coverage on Examiner.com.

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To say the least, 2010 has been a season of inconsistency for A.J. Burnett. After his first start of the season, his ERA was 5.40. By his sixth start, it was 1.99. 10 starts later, it was 5.25. Now, after his 27th start, his ERA stands at 5.15, and unless he can bring that down over a full point (unlikely), it will be the highest of his career.

This is nothing new for Burnett. Throughout his entire career, he has been hit or miss. On any given day, he could throw a no-hitter or give up 10 runs in four innings. In fact, two starts after his no-hitter in 2001, he gave up seven runs in four innings.

So what is it? Nobody doubts that he has great ability, but why has he never been able to put it together? 

Those are the questions that are brewing in New York. In Toronto, nobody cared enough to answer these questions, but in the midst of a pennant race, the Yankees need to work out Burnett’s issues.

To answer these questions, let’s look at data for Burnett’s best start this season, and his worst start.

Using game score as a meter, it turns out that Burnett’s best start was April 29 in Baltimore, when he gave up no runs on three hits in eight innings. His worst start would be August 27 in Chicago when he pitched just three and a third innings, giving up eight earned runs.

First off, we should establish that it is just a coincidence that his best start was early in the season and his worst start was later in the season. His game-by-game results show no correlation to time whatsoever.

Furthermore, if you look at his home versus away statistics, you will find that he is better in home games (you will find the same trend with the first half versus second half), but this does not explain the complete inconsistency that is present both home and away, and first and second half.

We have established that it is not a matter of setting or time, so our only choice is to go back and examine the data of Burnett’s best start and his worst start.

What you find first is that velocity is not the issue. The average speed on his fastball in his best start was less than a mile per hour slower than his worst start. The average speeds on his sinker, change-up, and knuckle-curve were all virtually the same as well.

What about pitch selection? He threw the same percentage of sinkers and change-ups in his best and worst starts. However, he threw about six percent more fastballs in his best start, and about six percent less knuckle-curves.

As it appears, when Burnett gets in trouble, he stops throwing fastballs and starts throwing more knuckle-curves.

This is a bit puzzling. When you look at the average break on Burnett’s pitches, and compare them in his best and worst starts, you find that his knuckle-curve is the pitch he had trouble with.

In Burnett’s best start, the average vertical break on his knuckle-curve was minus-5.07, as opposed to just minus-1.53 in his worst start. The average break on his fastball was different in his best and worst starts, but not nearly to the extent of his knuckle-curve.

The reason this is puzzling is because, like we said before, Burnett throws more knuckle-curves when he gets in trouble. But the knuckle-curve is the pitch that he has trouble with, so why does he throw it more often?

Well, if you have ever heard Burnett speak, he doesn’t sound like the smartest guy in the world, and not attending college definitely took a hit on his knowledge as well. 

Burnett’s inconsistency isn’t very difficult to decipher. It is a product of not paying attention, and not properly analyzing his own performance. Now, it should be noted that this is just two starts that we are looking at, but something as glaring as this data should not go unnoticed.

People always say that Burnett always displays talent, but never seems to put it together. They are right, now they just need to realize something very simple.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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Robinson Cano’s career has been a battle of improvement. And, for the most part, it has been extremely positive. After nearly winning the batting title in 2006, and hitting .306 in 2007, things looked pretty good for Cano. But, once he hit .271 in 2008, the Yankees needed an answer.

The answer was Cano’s aggressiveness. In 2008, he had just 26 walks, the 12th lowest in the Major Leagues among qualifying batters. He swung at 52% of the pitches he saw, well above the league average of 46%.

By 2010, where Cano looks to be in line for a possible Most Valuable Player award, it seems as though the Yankees have worked out his issues. His 49 walks are by far a career high, and there are still many games to be played.

What most people, including the hitting coach, will tell you is that Cano is swinging at less pitches outside the strikezone and that he is much more selective. Altough that would make plenty of sense, it is not the case.

So far in 2010, 35.2% of the swings Cano takes are at pitches outside the strikezone. That is, in fact, the highest of his career, and still well above the league average.

Maybe he is swinging less in general? No. He swings at 52% of the pitches he sees, the same as last year, and just .2% lower than his career average.

Maybe he has become a better hitter, and is making contact with more pitches? Also no. He makes contact with pitches outside the strikezone 75.5% of the time, lower than last season. In general, he makes contact with 87.1% of the pitches he swings at, his lowest percentage since 2007.

So what is it? Why has he walked so many times?

Well, first off, there is the obvious answer. 12 of his 49 walks are intentional. His previous high was five intentional walks in 2007.

But if you remove those 12 intentional walks, he is still well above his normal pace. Why is that?

Quite simply, Cano has learned to hit off-speed pitches. If you look at his wSL/C and wCB/C values (stats that measure your success against certain pitches—in this case sliders and curveballs—per 100 pitches) Cano has had nearly 400% the success he had last year against sliders, and 50% against curveballs.

Over 22% of the pitches Cano has seen in his career have been either sliders or curveballs, so the new-found success that he is having makes a very large difference.

Cano’s abnormal walk values can be attributed to two things: more intentional walks, and more success against sliders and curveballs. Cano is actually more aggressive than he has been in the past, contrary to what most people believe.

You can e-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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