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A-Rod Scratched With Left Leg Contusion

Just days after Alex Rodriguez hit his 600th career home run, he has been scratched from the lineup Saturday afternoon against the Boston Red Sox.

A-Rod was struck by a line drive on his left leg during batting practice Saturday. He has a contusion near the base of his shin. 

Rodriguez was taking grounders at third base with Lance Berkman taking batting practice when he turned to say “hi” to FOX broadcaster Joe Buck. When Rodriguez turned his head back to home plate, he was struck by a one-hopper just below the left knee by a line drive off the bat of Berkman.

Alex then collapsed behind a protective screen in center-field, holding his head in pain. Derek Jeter called for trainer Gene Monohan, while manager Joe Girardi and Reggie Jackson attended Rodriguez at his side. 

Minutes later, Rodriguez limped off the field on his own power. 

Jason Zillo, the Yankees media relations director, said that Rodriguez’s leg has been placed in ice and elevated. He added that it is swollen. X-rays were negative, and Alex is listed as day-to-day.

Rodriguez was replaced in the line-up by Ramiro Peña, batting ninth. Hows that for a downgrade? 

 

 

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Never Count Out the Boston Red Sox

Here is the lineup the Red Sox used on Wednesday:

Ellsbury CF, Scutaro SS, Ortiz DH, Martinez C, Drew RF, Beltre 3B, Lowell 1B, Kalish LF, Hall 2B

If that lineup seems a little bit out of the ordinary, you are right. However, abnormal batting orders have not been out of the ordinary for the Red Sox this season. They have used 94 different batting orders this season, compared to 74 for the division rival Yankees.

2010 has been an unstable year for the Red Sox. Thursday, they lost Kevin Youkilis for the rest of the season, just a day after activating Jacoby Ellsbury off the disabled list, and just days after Mike Cameron went back on the DL.

The Red Sox have just three players who have played more than 95 games this season, one of which is Kevin Youkilis.

The Yankees, on the other hand, have six players who have played more than 95 games.

However, through all the unstableness, the Red Sox have still managed to prevail. Just six games back in the American League East, the Red Sox are anything but out of the race.

The Red Sox pitching staff has been somewhat solid for the Red Sox this season: Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz both have ERA’s of around three.

The bullpen has also been a strong point for the Red Sox. After a few shaky outings by Jonathan Papelbon, he has managed to put together a solid 2.98 ERA and 25 saves.

Even though the Red Sox do not have a solid offense, they have still put together a fantastic offensive season: they are second in the league in runs scored and home runs.

If you had to pick a bright spot for the 2010 Red Sox, it would be Adrian Beltre. In his first season with the Red Sox, he has 19 home runs and an All-Star batting average of .337.

Through much adversity, the Red Sox have put together a magnificent season. They will never “wow” you, but at the end of the day, the Red Sox find a way to win every game.

The lineup may be deceiving, but the Red Sox are still justifiable contenders in the American League East.

You can e-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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2010 Is Overwhelmingly Pitcher Friendly

I’m sure you have heard a lot about 2010 being the year of the pitchers. Look at this chart below showing the league averages since the year 2000. So far in 2010, every category is at it’s lowest point since 2000.

 

 

 

 

 

Year R/G AB H 2B 3B HR SO BA OBP SLG
2010 4.44 34.02 8.83 1.79 0.18 0.95 6.96 .260 .328 .406
2005 4.59 34.21 9.05 1.82 0.18 1.03 6.30 .264 .330 .419
2009 4.61 34.13 8.96 1.80 0.20 1.04 6.91 .262 .333 .418
2002 4.62 34.13 8.92 1.79 0.19 1.04 6.47 .261 .331 .417
2008 4.65 34.33 9.06 1.86 0.18 1.00 6.77 .264 .333 .416
2003 4.73 34.31 9.07 1.82 0.19 1.07 6.34 .264 .333 .422
2001 4.78 34.22 9.03 1.81 0.19 1.12 6.67 .264 .332 .427
2007 4.80 34.51 9.25 1.89 0.19 1.02 6.62 .268 .336 .423
2004 4.81 34.46 9.17 1.84 0.18 1.12 6.55 .266 .335 .428
2006 4.86 34.45 9.28 1.88 0.20 1.11 6.52 .269 .337 .432
2000 5.14 34.44 9.31  

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Alex Rodriguez, the stretch run: End of Game Thoughts

The Yankees have just lost two out of three to the Rays, and hold a tight one-game lead in the American League East. It was a great series: every game was extremely well-played and came down to one or two key moments. Here are my thoughts for the final game of this series:

The stage is set for an exciting September

If you watched all three games, these two teams looked extremely well-equipped and very even-matched. When you look at how these teams have matched up over the course of the season, the numbers are striking.

Here are the head-to-head numbers for the Yankees and Rays:

  Yankees Rays
Wins 5 6
Runs scored 58 59

It is pretty evident that the division will come down to the wire. The Yankees and Rays face off seven times in the final three weeks of the season. Get ready for some excitement.

Questionable At-Bat for A-Rod

A-Rod was not in the starting line-up tonight, but fans got a chance to experience history when he pinch hit in the top of the seventh inning. On a 3-2 count, A-Rod was called out on strikes by home plate umpire Bill Welke. A-Rod turned and complained about the call, and rightfully so.

Thanks to the people over at brooksbaseball.com, PitchFX data shows us that A-Rod was wrongfully called out on strikes. Here is the graph:

Could this have influenced the game? It would have been 1st and 2nd with two out with Ramiro Peña at the plate. Probably wouldn’t have made a difference, but worth noting.

You can e-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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Why W-L Records Are Ridiculous

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reminded us of something very important this morning. Here is what he said via Twitter:

“Felix Hernandez has 10 starts this yr in which he’s thrown 7 inn and allowed no more than 3 ER without getting a W. His 7-8 is so deceptive.”

It got me thinking once again how ridiculous W-L records are. So I thought of expanding the sampling beyond Felix Hernandez, to find what the chances are of winning the game if you pitch seven or more innings and give up three earned runs or less.

(We should first note that pitching seven innings and giving up three runs is a great start, and losing a game after pitching like that is simply a misrepresentation of your ability).

Here is what I found: Historically speaking, if you pitch seven innings or more and give up three runs or less, you have a one in five chance of losing the game.

So there it is. W-L records are a complete misrepresentation of how you pitch, and it is almost solely based on luck.

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MLB Trade Deadline: Lance Berkman a Big Question Mark

The 2010 trade deadline will be deemed unsucccessful for the Yankees tomorrow at 4:00 pm.

The Yankees acquired Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns on Friday, just hours before the trade deadline. Berkman will fill the Yankees void at designated hitter, and Kearns will add depth to the Yankees bench.

You can understand why the Yankees acquired Kearns. The Yankees always said they want a bench player, and Kearns can play almost every position on the field. Berkman, on the other hand, is a different story.

After the Yankees declined a trade for Adam Dunn, they said that offense was not their aim, and that they would much rather target a pitcher. Considering they couldn’t bring Dan Haren or Cliff Lee aboard without giving up Jesus Montero or Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees hopes for a pitcher were essentially shut down.

So 34-year-old Lance Berkman was the answer.

The five-time All-Star may seem like a no-brainer for the Yankees, but he presents many issues that may hinder his ability to perform on the big stage.

Lance has never played in any city other than Houston. Going from Texas to New York is a big change for anyone. The weather, the media attention, and the fans will all come as a surprise to Berkman. Can he handle it?

Additionally, he has never been a designated hitter in his entire life. Although that may not seem like an issue, many players find it difficult to DH every night.

Just ask Adam Dunn.

And lastly, he has played in just three playoffs, none since 2005. The Yankees expect to be there every year. I hope he is ready.

But don’t get me wrong. As a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, Berkman will hit his home runs. But even if he does succeed, I question how much the Yankees need offense. I don’t know about you, but I always thought the last team looking for a hitter would be the team that leads the league in runs scored. But what do I know?

 

You can e-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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Can Dan Haren Be the Game-Changer the Angels Need?

After a roller coaster of rumors flying around, the Angels swooped in to bring in starting pitcher Dan Haren. The deal was likely an answer to the division rival Rangers’ deal for Cliff Lee, but the Angels also brought in one of the most accomplished pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Haren, 29, is coming off one of the best seasons in his career, in which he had a WAR of 6.0 (almost MVP worthy) and was fifth in Cy Young voting. He led the league in WHIP and SO/BB.

Overall, a team that gets Haren is looking at the following: he strikes out a lot of batters, walks virtually none, is extremely durable and gives up a lot of hits. How do those things mesh together? It’s hard to tell; like any pitcher pitching on a bad team, you can never really uncover how he influences the outcome of the game.

Haren is a very good pitcher, but he has had limited time in a competitive city like Anaheim. Besides 2004 and 2006, Haren has not only not pitched in the playoffs, but has been on a team that was out of the race for the majority of the season. Anaheim is looking to take over the A.L. West and win a World Series. Can Haren take that?

One of the most popular excuses for Haren — if he needs one — is that he is surrounded by a lot of bad luck. Not only is that false, but he has actually had a lot of good luck. He has won three games in which he pitched less than six innings and gave up more than three runs, tying him for third most in the Majors. Conversely, he has only lost two games in which he pitched a quality start, the same as Freddy Garcia of the first place White Sox.

Pitching on a bad team has not effected Haren’s results at all. In fact, he has seen a lot of good luck. Although he has great numbers, it is questionable how he has affected his team, and how his team has affected him. This year, his team has a .381 winning percentage in games he started, only .003 points higher than the teams’ overall percentage. If Haren is such a good pitcher and luck hasn’t hurt his results, why isn’t the team better in games he starts?

It can all be attributed to the fact that Haren is not a game-changer. Even when he was fifth in Cy Young voting last year, his WPA (win probability added) was only 2.8 (28th in the Majors), and this year it is only 0.2.

I mentioned earlier that Haren is not used to pitching on contending teams, and thus does not usually pitch under pressure. After all, his average leverage index this year is the 61st lowest in the Majors. However, when he does pitch under pressure, he usually doesn’t shine. His clutch stat (a stat that measures how well a pitcher performs in high leverage situations) is 35th in the Majors. Not too bad, but also not remotely representative of some of the raw strikeout and walk numbers he puts up.

Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the game for the last couple of years. But it is difficult to pinpoint how much pitching on a low-stress, non-contending team has affected his results. The Angels need Haren to be a game-changer if they want to make the playoffs. And at this point, his ability to do that is unknown.

You can e-mail me at  jess@jesskcoleman.com   or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman .

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MLB Player Survey: The League’s Top Five Most Overrated Players

One hundred eighty-seven MLB players were surveyed to answer the question — who is the most overrated player in baseball?

Keep in mind that when determining whether a player is overrated or not, evaluation is not the sole factor — public opinion also needs to be weighed in.

Begin Slideshow


Matt Garza No-Hitter: The Year of Fear. Not Pitchers.

As Matt Garza finished off his no-hitter against the Tigers this evening, everyone watched in awe as “the year of pitchers” swarmed over them yet one more time. 2010 has been an interesting year when it comes to accomplishments, but this year, the accomplishments seem to have an interesting twist.

Consider the following list of some accomplishments we have observed this season:

 

– Roy Halladay pitches a perfect game.

– Dallas Braden pitches a perfect game.

– Ubaldo Jimenez pitches a no-hitter.

– Stephen Strasburg strikes out 14 Pirates in his MLB debut.

– Armando Galarraga loses a perfect game with two outs in the ninth inning.

– Edwin Jackson pitches a no-hitter.

– Ted Lily loses a no-hitter in the ninth inning.

If one thing sticks out on this list, it is — obviously — that all involve pitchers. It would appear that 2010 is “the year of the pitchers,” and the numbers back that up.

In the 2010 season, an average of 6.95 batters strike out every game. That is the highest in Major League Baseball history.

But before we begin to decipher “the year of the pitchers,” lets look at the other side. MLB averages .94 home runs per game this season. That is the lowest since 1993.

So which one is it? Is it the batters that are dominating, or is it the pitchers that are dominating?

That has been the talk of the baseball world for some time now. Many attribute the success of pitchers and lack of home runs to the performance enhancing drug (PED) suspensions that have been handed out in the last few years. The theory is that, after all the recent suspensions, players are afraid to continue using PED’s, and thus have experienced a decline in results. If we could prove that this is the case, then we could conclude that pitchers have not gotten better, but batters have gotten worse.

So how do we go about proving this? First we need to identify how PED’s influenced the game.

PED’s make players stronger. They do not increase coordination. So, PED’s add some kind of distance to a fly ball. In other words, a fly out to deep right for a player that is not taking PED’s would be a home run for a player who is taking PED’s.

But what would that look like in the stats? Essentially, if players are suddenly not taking PED’s, then less fly balls would result in home runs.

If you compare 2009 to 2010, that is indeed the case. Taking a look at the home run to fly ball ratio, 2010 has seen almost a one percent decrease compared to 2009. When looking at league averages, one percent is a very significant figure.

Thus, we can now conclude that the increase in strikeouts and the decrease in home runs is due to fear. Players are afraid of being suspended, and are therefore not taking drugs anymore. We do not have the data to determine how many players are on — or were on — PED’s, but the decrease in the amount of fly balls that result in home runs suggests that many players were indeed on PED’s.

Looking at this with a wider perspective, Major League Baseball has accomplished what many thought was impossible, and they did it quite promptly. For all the arguing over whether suspensions weren’t long enough, it seems as though the punishment didn’t stimulate the result, the fear did.

You can e-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman .

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