Kuzul

Hall of Fame outfielder Tony Gwynn has passed away, saddening Padres Nation and any number of peers and fans of the man and his accomplishments.

I came to be a fan of Tony Gwynn in a roundabout sort of way, although I became as big a fan as many folks who lived in San Diego and got to see him play on a daily basis.

As a kid in the 1970s, my favorite team was the Los Angeles Dodgers and my favorite player on that team was their first baseman, Steve Garvey. When Garvey was traded to the Padres in 1983, my allegiances shifted to San Diego, especially when I learned they had a part-time middle infielder by the name of Tim Flannery—just one letter away from being my name twin.

But in 1984, during the Padres’ run to the World Series, I really began to take notice of their young right fielder, Tony Gwynn. During that season, the man who would eventually be known as “Mr. Padre” would win his first of eight batting titles. In the playoffs, he hit .316 and was a key figure in getting San Diego to the World Series for the first time in franchise history.

After that, I was pretty much sold on the talented man who would become the centerpiece of the franchise for the next 17 years.

When my friends and I began playing Statis Pro Baseball on weekends (and later, Pursue The Pennant), Gwynn was one of my early picks for my team and the centerpiece of my little imaginary squad. 

I became very familiar with Gwynn’s strengths and his stats. I knew, for instance, that although he had the label of defensive liability when he made it to the majors in 1982, he worked hard at that part of his game and wound up winning five Gold Gloves before he won five batting championships.

When Gwynn hit .370 in 1987, I knew that it was the highest batting average in the NL since the days of Stan Musial (Musial hit .376 in 1948) and that he never had a cold streak that year longer than eight at-bats.

I basically became a Tony Gwynn encyclopedia from my Canadian home far, far away from San Diego and, no doubt, bored my friends to tears with my constantly dredging up obscure Tony Gwynn factoids.

As Gwynn moved into the second decade of his career and I moved on from exuberant teen baseball fan to exuberant young baseball coach, I began to pay closer and closer attention to the technical side of No. 19’s game.

In 1992 I bought Tony Gwynn’s Total Baseball Player, his first instructional book, and I began incorporating many of his lessons into what I was teaching to the kids I was coaching. In 2000, I snapped up a copy of The Art of Hitting, his book that incorporates autobiography with more hitting lessons, and added more of his wisdom into what I was teaching to the kids in my care. 

Over the years, I became more and more impressed with Gwynn’s work ethic and dedication to excellence, and I’ve tried to impart that to the ballplayers I coach. Even these days, when most of them are too young to have ever seen Mr. Padre swing a bat, their baseball experience is being influenced by what I’ve learned from him.

Last year, my wife and I made a road trip down to San Diego and back and, although we didn’t get a chance to see a game at Petco Park, we did spend some time walking around the park, giving me a chance to get my picture taken next to the Gwynn statue just beyond the right field wall. I also came home with a Gwynn tee-shirt from the Padres store in Petco.

Tony Gwynn was an inspiration to me throughout his career and for many years after. Knowing how much he affected me and my perception of the game of baseball—even from over 1,500 miles away—I can only imagine how much of an impact he had on others who got to see him play in person or got to meet him.

His loss will be deeply felt, but his memory will live on.

Follow me on Twitter @calgaryjimbo

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The Toronto Blue Jays announced on Monday that they won’t give pitcher Josh Johnson a qualifying offer, which means Johnson is now an unrestricted free agent.

This may well be an opportunity for the San Diego Padres.

The Padres finished 11th in the National League in team ERA this year, at 3.98, with only starters Andrew Cashner (3.09) and Eric Stults (3.93), along with swing-man Tyson Ross (3.17), pitching to ERAs below the team average.

That makes a reclamation project like Johnson an interesting prospect.

Johnson’s season with the Blue Jays was terrible by any standard.

He missed half the season due to injury, and when he was on the mound, he was getting lit up. His 6.20 ERA over 81.1 innings was his worst since 2007 when he only pitched in four games. His 1.660 WHIP was likewise the second-worst of his career, and his 1.7 HR surrendered per nine innings was almost triple his career average.

The six-foot-seven righty was especially bad with runners on base, where he surrendered a .392 batting average and a 1.055 OPS, throwing even more gas on the fire.

Taken all in all, the Jays were pretty smart to let Johnson walk, as offering him another $14.1 million for that kind of performance would have been a spectacularly bad decision.

And this is where the opportunity for the Padres opens up.

Assuming Johnson is healthy in 2014, he would make an excellent acquisition to bolster the rotation at a discounted price.

Historically, Johnson is a quality starter. His years in the Miami Marlins organization showed him to be a front-line pitcher whose 2.30 ERA led the NL in 2010. In eight years with the Marlins he had a 3.15 ERA and a 1.233 WHIP, both excellent numbers.

Perhaps a return to the National League and moving back to a warmer climate in a small market would do Johnson some good. If the Padres could land him for $8-10 million per year, it could pan out into a season-changing move for 2014 and beyond.

On the other hand, he could turn into another Edinson Volquez, not living up to the expectations and finding himself traded before the end of his second year. Except a Johnson flame-out would be for a lot more money than Volquez was. 

But if San Diego wants to turn their fortunes around in a division which features the big-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, a perennially strong team in the San Francisco Giants and the quickly improving Arizona Diamondbacks, they’re going to have to take a couple of chances on some potential bargains.

If Johnson can even come close to his historical performance, he’d be an asset to the Padres pitching staff. And that’s a gamble worth taking.

Follow me on Twitter @calgaryjimbo

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Brad Lidge was signed by the Washington Nationals this week for a million dollars over one season. A bargain compared to what some closers have picked up during this offseason. But did the Nationals make the right move?

The role of closer in Major League Baseball has evolved over the last few years into an elite spot on the roster, worthy of much talk, praise and big, fat contracts. But statistically, and historically, it simply doesn’t make any sense.

Evidence such as this study from 2004 by David W. Smith indicates that teams that have held a lead after eight innings have won their games 95 per cent of the time. This has held true throughout the history of baseball.

In fact, the worst record he could find in a century of numbers was the 1978 Seattle Mariners, who still sealed the deal in the ninth 80.4 percent of the time.

This off-season has seen a bunch of closers moving around and signing significant contracts. The biggest was Jonathan Papelbon signing a four-year, $50 million contract with Philadelphia.

We’ve also seen Ryan Madson sign with Cincinnati for one year, $10 million, Heath Bell sign with Miami for three years, $27 million, and Joe Nathan sign with Texas for $14.5 million over two years.

Overall, I’ve noted 10 closers signed for an average of $7.18 million per year in just this free-agent season alone. 

But given that a typical team will win virtually every game they play where they enter the ninth with a lead no matter who is pitching, this seems like a massive waste of money.

The Jonathan Papelbons, Mariano Riveras and John Axfords of the baseball world are put on a pedestal and worshipped for their prowess at slamming the door at the end of the game. And they are paid accordingly.

But it simply doesn’t matter.

Given that teams carrying the lead into the final inning are almost certainly going to win, regardless of who is on the mound, it makes absolutely no sense for teams to be rolling truckloads of money up to the doors of these guys.

Better to spread the money around to a stable of decent arms in relief and just pick the guy with the most rest.

Getting Lidge for only a million a year is pretty cheap for a proven arm, even if he’s past his prime at age 35. That’s a third of the average MLB salary and for a guy filling a high-profile, but statistically irrelevant role, that’s the right price.

Papelbon’s $12.5 million a year? Not so much.

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