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Last winter, the Boston Red Sox molded a 93-loss disaster into a 97-win juggernaut through an offseason of wise, shrewd and visionary free-agent signings. According to Alex Speier of WEEI.com, team president Larry Lucchino is hoping for a sequel when the Red Sox go about filling out their roster in the aftermath of a World Series championship:

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, lightning doesn’t strike twice. By capitalizing on undervalued assets, creating a template for short-term, low-risk deals with midtier free agents and attacking free agency in the last year before baseball’s new, lucrative media deal put $20-25 million in the pocket of each owner, Boston cornered a market that was wide open.

This winter, the copycats will be in abundance, but supply and demand won’t let any team, including the Red Sox, repeat the same strategy en route to a franchise-changing offseason.

In New York, the Mets have posted five consecutive losing seasons, are battling budget concerns and come across unwilling to hand out $100 million deals. Of all the teams looking to spend and improve this winter, the Mets seemed most likely to go about the Red Sox model.

Thus far, they’ve found the climate, per the New York Daily News, of free-agent prices to be above and beyond what they are prepared to spend. It’s likely that every other team attempting the 2013 Red Sox model will soon be confronted with the same realization.  

Last year was a perfect storm for Boston. The free-agent class, dollars spent and undervalued assets fell right in line with the needs on the Red Sox roster. According to Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent rankings, Boston reeled in seven of the top 50 free agents on the market last winter for less than $100 million.

That number didn’t just represent the price paid out to Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes in 2013; it was the total amount spent to secure their services for 11 combined seasons. In other words, Boston brought in the sextet for less than $10 million per season.  

To put that into perspective, Jhonny Peralta, the 18th-ranked player on Yahoo! Sports’ current free-agent rankings, just received a four-year, $52 million contract from the St. Louis Cardinals. Last winter, Dempster was rated 17th by Yahoo! when garnering half that total amount from Boston.

Not only are teams trying to copy the Red Sox model, but money in the game is also on the rise. In September, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote a prescient column on this subject, imagining baseball’s middle class earning much more money this winter and beyond. Per Sherman’s reporting:

There are a lot of teams with available cash — more now with the new national TV contract putting an additional $20-million to-$25 million annually in each team’s coffers beginning in 2014 — and many of those clubs are indicating they are going to shun Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the market and, well, diversify the portfolio. Which means the middle class is about to become the upper-middle class as the good-to-very good free agents are going to get bid up by multiple teams.

The following chart shows the free-agent stars with corresponding rankings this winter to the players signed by Boston last winter. As you can see and imagine, the idea of those seven players, or similar stars, signing for a grand sum of less than 11 years or $99 million is absurd. 

In fact, with Byrd already inked to a $16 million deal in Philadelphia, Beltran, Cruz and Nolasco would have to combine for less than $83 million in total contract value to give credence to a team pulling off a 2013 Red Sox free-agent heist. 

Boston is wise to attempt an offseason model similar to last year. Short-term deals are generally much, much more palatable for both general manager and ownership. If a decision is wrong, it won’t cripple the franchise for years. 

While it’s smart to try, the same results are nearly impossible to garner this time around. Beyond the fact that the middle class of players is poised to cash in, more teams are looking to duplicate the successful approach. This time, the 2014 Shane Victorino might cost $55 million, not $39 million. 

Furthermore, even if the Red Sox find a few players who perfectly fit the model established last year, luck likely won’t be on their side again. When general manager Ben Cherington inked Koji Uehara, the 38th-ranked free-agent on the market, few could have imagined one of the greatest relief pitching seasons in baseball history emerging from the move.

This time around, Lance Berkman is the No. 38 player on Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent list. If he lands in Boston on a short-term deal, posts one of the greatest hitting seasons in history and leads the Red Sox to another World Series, it will be time to admit that Boston truly has its strategy perfected.

Until then, call it what it was: The perfect offseason plan for the perfect offseason.  

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After two weeks of banter, rumors and potential offseason landing spots opening up, the Hot Stove has finally started to burn.

Over the last few days, a blockbuster between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers,  an under-the-radar signing by the New York Mets, an intriguing swap between the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals and delusional approach by the Philadelphia Phillies front office have combined to own the news cycle.

Thus far, the destination of free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew has not been at the forefront of baseball’s rumor mill. If his agent, Scott Boras, follows a recent script of good, not great, free-agent profiles, Drew could be waiting for months to sign his next lucrative contract.

When the Boston Red Sox placed the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer on Drew, his market was severely altered. Now, any team that signs Drew must forfeit a top draft pick. If the team owns one of the 10 worst records in baseball, the pick will be outside the first round. However, if it’s a contending team, or even a losing team outside of the bottom 10 records from 2013, the pick will come from the first round of the 2014 draft.

Needless to say, Drew is going to find a home, regardless of the compensation that will come with his next contract. Yet, it could take a while for his market to come down and interested teams to justify millions spent and a draft pick surrendered. 

If the process is anything like Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse‘s free agency from last winter, Drew could be without a permanent home until February. 

Last winter, both Bourn and Lohse were quality free agents, but neither looked to be a franchise-changing player. As a speedy outfielder, Bourn was looking to be paid based on his defense, speed and ability to hit at the top of the order. Lohse, a durable, 200-inning arm, was looking to cash in on his ability to stabilize any rotation in baseball.

Eventually, both did garner solid deals. Bourn, after nearly landing with the New York Mets, found a home in Cleveland on a four-year, $48 million deal. Meanwhile, Lohse landed in Milwaukee on a three-year, $33 million pact. Based on their track records of success prior to free agency, it’s likely that both would have landed even bigger deals had draft pick compensation not been attached.

At first, it was clear that some suitors passed on both due to the draft pick issue. As the offseason progressed, teams filled needs and zapped up their budgets to the point where neither player, even if there was mutual interest, became a natural fit any longer.

Stephen Drew, although not a perfect parallel to the patient free-agent stars of last winter, is on a similar tier of talent. It’s easy to dismiss the merits of Drew’s value, especially after a dismal offensive postseason for the World Series champions, but, much like Lohse and Bourn, his contributions are clear to those immersed in the game.  

Since 2008, Drew is one of only nine shortstops to post at least an OPS+ of 100 and contribute a 9.0 or higher WAR to his clubs. As offense fades away and the game becomes geared to young power-pitching, shortstops that can provide league average offense and decent total value are very, very valuable. 

Eventually, there will be suitors for Drew, but the draft pick compensation will scare enough suitors off to make his plight more interesting than it would have been without the conundrum. 

Furthermore, one of the teams in the Stephen Drew sweepstakes, the New York Yankees, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, may have to wait months in order to fill out their roster and set their final winter budget. 

Due to the Alex Rodriguez circus, the Yankees are handcuffed, possibly until sometime in late December or early January. According to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, that’s when arbitrator Fredric Horowitz is expected to finally rule on A-Rod’s 211-game suspension. If it goes into effect immediately, the Yankees could have $33.1 million extra to work with in 2014. 

They would also have a major hole on the left side of the infield. Not only would Rodriguez have to be replaced for a full season, but Derek Jeter is nearing his 40th birthday and fresh off an ankle injury that cost him most of the 2013 season. The fact that Stephen Drew can play shortstop or third base makes him, along with fellow free-agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta, a no-brainer for the Yankees.

If circumstances were different around the Red Sox qualifying offer or the state of New York’s budget, Drew’s free agency could have been quick, perhaps over by the end of the Winter Meetings in December. 

Now, don’t be surprised if his name is used in conjunction with Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse. It doesn’t mean he won’t be rewarded for a stellar 2013 season, it just might take time.

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For New York Mets fans, it’s been a difficult run of futility, especially during the hot stove season. While rebuilding and retooling can be justified by any rational fan, the lack of big-market activity by general manager Sandy Alderson has been alarming over the last few years.

On Friday morning, the Mets made a move to bolster their outfield, but a vocal portion of fans haven’t been able to separate the present and future when breaking down the deal. According to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, former Diamondbacks and Athletics outfielder Chris Young is on his way to New York. 

When first glancing at Young’s 2013 numbers, it’s easy to understand the lack of excitement at a player that will cost $7.25 million, per the New York Daily News. This past season, Young posted an 85 OPS+ in 375 plate appearances for Oakland.

Yet, after taking a look at the 30-year-old outfielder heading to New York, Mets fans should be excited for a player poised to resurrect his once promising career. 

Before we dive into why Young is ready to reemerge in 2014, let’s look at the type of player he was before a disappointing season in Oakland, the level he could return to next year and where he ranked among the top outfielders in baseball during his best days.

When at his best, Young is a rare player. Few outfielders possess the ability to hit 30 home runs, steal 25 bases and play top-tier defense. During three separate seasons (2007, 2010, 2011) in Young’s career, he’s been at least a 20/20 (20 home runs, 20 stolen bases) offensive player. During the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Young’s glove was good enough to account for 38 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in Arizona. 

The following charts illustrate just how prolific Chris Young was when at his best. The fact that he’s coming off a poor year in Oakland makes him a perfect buy-low for the New York Mets. Without the budget or willingness to splurge on lucrative, long-term deals, the front office in Flushing, Queens, led by Sandy Alderson, is forced to search for bargains. At the age of 30, Young is still young enough to repeat or exceed past performances.  

As you can see, Young’s power-speed combination is rare. Since 2007, only Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp, the top two finishers on the 2011 NL MVP ballot, have profiled as better power-speed combinations among outfielders.

Furthermore, the names below Young on the chart, Alex Rios and B.J Upton, both signed contracts in excess of $69 million during their respective careers. On a one-year, $7.25 contract, the Mets are receiving a player with a skill set that has been paid between $69 and $160 million. 

When factoring in WAR, Young’s defensive prowess puts him above many star outfielders in Major League Baseball. From 2010-2012, the three years prior to Young’s awful 2013, he profiled as one of the 12 most valuable outfielders in baseball. Among the names behind him on that list: Shin-Soo Choo, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton and Hunter Pence. 

If Young can experience a career resurgence, the Mets will be rewarded with one of the more valuable outfielders in all of baseball.

It’s abundantly clear that Young has been a versatile and excellent player during the bulk of his career, but neither of those accolades are enough to predict an upswing in performance for the Mets during the 2014 season. Instead, we can look to the poor luck experienced in Oakland as a reason for his revival. 

As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs pointed out when discussing the bargain deal the Mets just shopped for, Young’s 2013 season was hurt by a well below-average BABIP (batting average on balls in play). As Cameron discusses, Young was basically the same hitter in 2013 as he was in his good years, but he suffered from an inordinate amount of bad luck on batted balls. Per Cameron’s thoughts:

None of that changed last year. He still hit for power, drew walks, struck out, and hit fly balls. However, he posted a .237 BABIP that was the lowest of his career, so his wRC+ fell from 98 to 82. Other than that, he was basically the same hitter he’s always been, and while BABIP for hitters isn’t entirely random, there’s no reason to expect him to sustain a career low. Steamer projects him to post a .269 BABIP in 2014, a little below his career average, and that bump would push him right back to league average hitter status.

The final thought is key. After a difficult 2013, it won’t take much more than better luck to return Young to being a league average player. At the age of 30, it’s hard to believe his defense and speed have disappeared. Thus, an uptick in luck at the plate, combined with good defense, potentially in a corner outfield spot in New York, and 20-plus stolen bases, can put Young back in the category of rare outfielders that he profiled as during his time in Arizona. 

Frustration from Mets fans is easy to understand, but the road back to contention doesn’t have to be littered with big names. Young, even on a reasonable deal, will take up a significant chunk of the organization’s offseason budget. If he produces, it will be a boon. If he doesn’t, more despair will emanate from Citi Field. 

Transcendent talents cost over $100 million to secure. Young isn‘t that good, and likely never will be, but he does possess some of the same skills as comparable players that got paid on that level. By mid-summer, he could become underpaid and highly valuable member of an improved Mets team.

Agree? Disagree? 

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For the first time since January, Major League Baseball fans are in the midst of a full month without baseball.

That’s right, folks. Since the World Series concluded, the 2013 baseball year has been more about the hot stove and potential moves than actual baseball. As the memories of a great 2013 start flooding back in, we remember how it began: With an incredibly competitive and entertaining World Baseball Classic in March.

If you are a fan of the hot stove and day-to-day rumors surrounding each embattled general manager, free agent and star on the trade block, the offseason is a very exciting time. In New York, the mere idea of Jay Z breaking bread with members of the Mets front office is enough to send shock waves and snickers throughout the five boroughs.

Of course, not everyone has the time or energy to keep up with news and notes. Some fans just want competitive baseball on television. Sure, MLB Network shows some Arizona Fall League games, but that’s not what we’re talking about here. For the fan that misses the intensity of October baseball and relaxing doldrums of play-by-play announcers, this idea is for you: The World Baseball Classic should be moved to November.

Yes, the tournament that brings baseball fans around the world together should be revamped before the next rendition of the event in 2017, starting with the drastic measure of moving the entire event from the preseason to after the conclusion of the World Series.
 
Why? Here are three reasons it would enhance the product and extend the viewing pleasure for fans starving for baseball in November.

1. The ratings might rebound.

According to Sports Media Watch, the 2013 WBC championship game between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic earned 843,000 viewers on MLB Network last March. To put that number in perspective, consider this: In 2009, the WBC final drew over 1.6 million viewers to ESPN. Despite an entertaining tournament and representative final, half of fans that tuned in in 2009 did not for the 2013 finale.

To put those numbers in perspective, take a look at some television numbers from Nielsen. For the week of Nov. 4, 2013, a Hallmark Original Movie—something called A Very Merry Mix Up—garnered over five times as many eye balls as the WBC final from March. Comparing and contrasting cable ratings, made-for-television movies and exhibition baseball isn’t the point here, but the numbers are startling when put in that context.

Simply put, Major League Baseball can’t use the soft scheduling landscape of March to enhance their reasoning for playing the WBC in that month any longer. Sure, the NFL and college football, along with regular season NHL and NBA, would dwarf WBC ratings in November, but it’s not exactly thriving in March.

Playing the WBC in November would extend the season. Plus, with the carryover excitement from October and the postseason, fans may stay tuned in to baseball in November, rather than having the sport thrust upon everyone in March.

2. Star players may be more apt to play.

One of the biggest complaints about the WBC centers around baseball’s best players choosing not to participate for fear of injury, unwillingness to miss critical spring training time with their parent club or concern from the player’s organization about letting a recently healed player back into competitive baseball without a full spring to get into shape. Playing in November, or any month for that matter, won’t ever totally alleviate concerns for professional athletes, but it could make some more apt to play.

Yes, the players that just wrapped up the World Series will be tired and ragged. In 2013, that would have potentially meant stars like Carlos Beltran, David Ortiz and Adam Wainwright choosing not to play and represent their respective countries. Yet, for every other player, November could just represent an extension of the season.

If an injury were to occur in a November-based WBC, it could leave enough time to heal before spring training or the regular season. Minor injuries would be a blip on the radar screen for parent clubs, unlike a scenario with Mark Teixeira last March. When the Yankees first baseman went down with a torn sheath in his wrist, the Yankees essentially lost one of their key players for the entire season, throwing water on the WBC.

When it comes to pitchers, workload and velocity in mid-March is a concern for pitching coaches around the sport. Furthermore, meaningful innings in WBC games are different than exhibition games in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. Although young pitchers, like Zack Wheeler of the New York Mets, might have to skip a WBC due to reaching a team-imposed innings limit during the regular season, veteran pitchers wouldn’t have to worry about their arms for the following season.

It’s disheartening for pitching coaches to watch their pitchers have setbacks after the WBC in March, but affording them the opportunity to rest for months after the competition would help the Major League Baseball regular season product.

Not convinced yet? The NBA routinely sends over the best American-born players for the Olympics. Much like in this proposed change, the competition takes place in the aftermath of the NBA postseason and Finals. If athletes like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant can drag themselves off the mat after grueling and arduous postseason runs, play at a high level for Team USA and still be ready for NBA opening tip in October, Major League Baseball players could easily adapt to this change.

3. It affords fans more baseball!

Full disclosure: It’s hard for me to get into the WBC in March. Despite watching and covering baseball for a living, the process of getting locked into every pitch is hard to do in March. Spring training has really just begun, opening day isn’t until April, and, for those outside of warm climates, it’s winter.

On the other hand, I’m always disappointed to watch the World Series end, knowing that we are months away from meaningful baseball again. Bridging the gap during the offseason, even if it means pushing back the GM’s meetings and hot stove, would make the offseason much, much more enjoyable.

If you are still on the edge with this proposal, think of it this way: If the WBC was on right now, we would be watching the best players in the world on the diamond.

Agree? Disagree?

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With the Robinson Cano free-agency tour off to a slow start, Jay Z and Creative Artists Agency took their sales pitch across New York City on Monday night. According to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, Robinson Cano’s representatives, led by the famous rap mogul, held court with the front office of the New York Mets.

Outside of the ridiculous notion of Cano actually bolting the Bronx for Queens, the meeting with Mets representatives is a sign that Jay Z is desperate for suitors and lacking any substantial offer outside of the Yankees’ willingness to re-sign the star second baseman to a long-term contract.

This secret meeting took place just hours after CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that Cano and the Yankees are still $150 million apart in contract negotiations. Yet, just last week, New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson expressed an unwillingness to give away a contract in excess of $100 million to any player on the free-agent market, per ESPN New York. Furthermore, the Colorado Rockies “blew away” the Mets by offering a $2.5 million contract to free-agent reliever LaTroy Hawkins, per the New York Daily News.

If Cano’s camp is soliciting interest, or practicing their sales pitch, on the New York Mets, there’s little reason to believe multiple teams are lining up to offer Cano a contract in excess of $200 million. While the best player on the market is justified in seeking a record-setting deal, the Yankees should not be worried about another team jumping in right now.

On Monday night, MLB Network insiders Jon Heyman, Tom Verducci and Ken Rosenthal bantered about which teams could possibly enter the Cano fray. Naturally, the Mets weren’t mentioned. Even if the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers or Washington Nationals make a bid for the best second baseman in baseball, the Yankees have the means to go above and beyond anyone else.

Thus far, the negotiating tactics make sense from the Yankees point of view. General manager Brian Cashman is willing to go to great lengths to retain his best player, but bidding against himself is foolish. Until a suitor willing to cut a legitimate check emerges, Cano’s camp looks lost.

Years ago, a secret meeting with the Mets would have caused a ripple effect in New York, but those days are long gone. It’s widely understood that the Mets don’t have the resources or the willingness to sign a free agent of Cano’s caliber. Even if Mets ownership and management put on the full court press, Cano would have to sacrifice millions in order to be in range of a contract with the crosstown rivals.

Instead, the idea of Jay Z and Brodie Van Wagenen, Cano’s agents, sharing a meal with Mets brass won’t cause anything but back page headlines and delusions of grandeur in New York. Despite representing the best available player, Cano’s agents haven’t yet drummed up the support needed to make the Yankees worry. Until they do, dinner with the Mets will remain nothing but a punch line.

In spite of Tim Lincecum’s $35 million deal and Ruben Amaro’s stubbornness in Philadelphia, the lack of suitors lining up for Robinson Cano has been the most surprising subplot of the hot stove season. With each franchise receiving $25 million more in revenue, due to Major League Baseball’s media deal, the chance to acquire the best second baseman in baseball was expected to appeal to at least a few big-market owners.

With Thanksgiving still over a week away, that may still be the case. If it is, the Yankees will have to eventually sweat out a real contract squabble to retain their star. If it’s not, Cano will be forced to negotiate a contract based on his brand, not his bat. Ironically, that “brand” is being compared to one of the best athletes in history. According to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, Cano is being sold as baseball’s Michael Jordan. Per Feinsand‘s reporting:

“They’re selling him as Michael Jordan, not as a baseball player,” said a major-league official familiar with Cano’s situation. “As a guy that’s going to be a big rock star and bring all these fans in. Last year, that wasn’t the case.”

If the first step in that process is dinner with the Mets, don’t expect the Steinbrenner family to write anything close to a $300 million contract this winter. 

Over the next few weeks, the Cano-Mets angle will splinter in one of two directions: A non-story in the long, arduous path for Cano back to the Bronx or the first sign that Cano’s agency misread the market, scared off potential big-market suitors and gave the Yankees an easy path to re-signing a star they desperately need. 

If it’s the latter, Jay Z’s first foray into Major League Baseball free agency will qualify as a marketing disaster and Robinson Cano’s next contract will be a boon for the New York Yankees. As of right now, the Cano camp looks very, very desperate.

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After seven consecutive years without postseason baseball and five straight without a winning record, New York Mets fans are anxious for general manager Sandy Alderson to be aggressive on the free-agent and trade market this offseason.

On Friday afternoon, Alderson was a guest on Mike Francesa‘s show on WFAN in New York to talk about his offseason plan and objectives for upgrading the talent base on the roster and to ask the impatient Mets faithful to trust in the process that he’s been working on since taking over as general manager in 2010.

I understand that people are anxious to see what we’re going to do. I’m anxious to see how everything develops. We’ve got some holes to fill, there’s no question about that. But the nice thing about that…is that it gives us a lot of different combinations. While there are some obvious weaknesses, there are also some areas where we have relative strengths…that we might be able to further strengthen.

From a rational and analytical perspective, Alderson is right to show patience with a free-agent period that has barely begun. Unlike Philadelphia’s Ruben Amaro, the Mets executive won’t be impulsive and set the market for flawed players. If it takes until January to sign an impact player, so be it. In fact, Marlon Byrd, recently signed by the Phillies, per MLB.com, after a tremendous 2013 for the Mets and Pirates, was a February signing by Alderson last winter.

Yet, as we know, fans aren’t rational and don’t always bring analytical thinking to the table in baseball conversation. Every day that passes without a major acquisition by the Mets front office acts as a signal that the team doesn’t care, ownership is broke and 2014 will be another disappointing summer in Flushing, Queens. 

Outside of David Wright, who signed a long-term deal to remain the face of the Mets organization last offseason, the Mets don’t have an impact bat in the lineup. Despite a young, ascending pitching staff that looks to be formidable even without Matt Harvey for the entire 2014 season, New York won’t crack .500 unless the offense is augmented around Wright through a major move this winter.

During the course of the conversation with Francesa, Alderson talked about his strategy for adding offense, especially in the outfield.

“I’m staring at my board right now,” Alderson said. “In the outfield category, I’ve got seven guys on my board who are free agents—varying degrees of quality. In the trade category just as an example, I’ve got four, five—nine. Those are guys we talked about internally. They range from A+ to C+.”

In order to appease the impatient Mets fans, the eventual acquisition must grade out as an A or B on Alderson‘s board. Complementary pieces are great for teams attempting to get over the hump and become a postseason contenders, but that’s not where the Mets are as a team right now. They are below average and desperately need an offensive jilt. 

Alderson‘s first two years in New York were used primarily to set the franchise up for long-term success through trades (Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler, R.A. Dickey for Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard) and allowing albatross contracts (Johan Santana, Jason Bay) to expire. Now the farm system is loaded with young pitching, and there aren’t any awful contracts holding New York’s front office back from making a splash.

Few rational fans expect the Mets to win a championship in 2014, but a reasonable push to climb over the .500 mark isn’t too high of an expectation. If the team can do that, the return of Harvey in 2015 will have the fans believing in championship aspirations for the first time since the 2006-2008 run in which the franchise averaged 91 victories per season.

That’s why a splash is so important to Mets fans right now. Over the next few months, Alderson‘s patient and analytical side must mesh with the desire to get better immediately. When the team does hold a press conference to introduce a new slugger or high-profile star to the city of New York, it will buy the front office time to complete the rebuilding project that started years ago. 

Despite acquiring high-end talent like Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Travis d’Arnaud, the fans in New York can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel fast enough. In order to gain the trust and patience needed to cultivate a long-term contender, Sandy Alderson needs to make a splash now.

Even if the win curve suggests that it’s more prudent to wait one more year, when Harvey is healthy and the franchise’s other young building blocks have another year of seasoning, fans won’t accept that type of delayed gratification.

At some point this winter, the present and future will collide in Queens. It’s up to the general manager to make sure it’s a smooth transition.

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The Major League Baseball free-agent market isn’t ripe with young, ascending players that are guaranteed to give their next employer great production for the duration of a contract. Instead, the list of 2014 MLB free agents is littered with question marks. 

Cost concerns surround the best and most dominant stars. Durability clouds the future of past greats. Age and longevity factor in when signing a veteran to a free-agent deal. Despite all the positive scouting reports or medical records done by front office members around baseball, no free agent comes without reservation.

Yet, some are less risky than others. When assessing this particular class of game-changing players, six standout as no-brainers. In relation to their free-agent peers, the following players should provide a level of comfort to the general manager that affords them a chunk of the franchise’s budget. That’s not to say that injury or a slip in performance won’t occur, but it’s not as big of a concern with these players as some of the others on the market.

Without further ado, the six players that are the biggest no-brainers on the free-agent market.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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After guiding the Pittsburgh Pirates to the postseason for the first time since 1992, Clint Hurdle was named National League Manager of the Year on Tuesday night by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Of the 30 ballots completed, Hurdle was awarded first-place votes by 25 of the baseball scribes covering the sport around the country.

The honor isn’t just well deserved, it’s validation for a franchise that has undergone a seismic shift in culture since Hurdle arrived prior to the 2011 season. 

By contending in the top-heavy National League Central, Pittsburgh ushered in a new era of winning. By qualifying for the postseason, the Pirates shocked the baseball world. Now, Hurdle’s Manager of the Year award signifies the final piece of the 2013 puzzle for a franchise that has lacked direction for decades.

As stated here before the official announcement came down, Hurdle’s recognition goes well past just the 2013 campaign. From leading a 15-win improvement in his first season to another solid seven-win improvement in 2012, Hurdle set the stage for the Pirates to take the leap from mediocrity (79-83) to excellence (94-68) in 2013. 

When the Pirates tabbed Hurdle as the manager to replace John Russell, few around baseball took much stock in the hire. After all, even if the Pittsburgh farm system finally began to produce quality players, it would take an outstanding effort from the manager and coaching staff to mold them into contenders without the help of expensive veterans. 

As the Pirates morphed from awful to poor to mediocre, the culture changed around an improving young core of talent. Sure, the rise of Andrew McCutchen to MVP candidate expedited the process, but Hurdle’s willingness to stick with Pedro Alvarez through his development, trust Mark Melancon in a prominent bullpen role, and bat Starling Marte at the top of the order galvanized the work of Pittsburgh’s player development staff. 

Furthermore, Hurdle’s personality and willingness to evolve his thinking, both on and off the field, endeared him to veterans like Jason Grilli, Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano. Free-agent and trade acquisitions played a major role in the makeup of the 2013 Pirates roster, but none of the veteran talent came from expensive, long-term contracts. Instead, they were players needing a place to rehabilitate past success (Liriano), prove a big-market team wrong for moving in a different direction (Martin), or make an entire organization in Philadelphia feel foolish for letting talent languish in Triple-A (Grilli).

Before arriving in Pittsburgh, Hurdle took a team to the World Series but failed to win consistently during his tenure in Colorado. Much of his demise was based on a system that failed to generate enough talent. Or, when it had talent, suffered through major injury issues during seasons of high expectations.

Still, Hurdle could have easily remained stuck in his ways when approaching the situation in Pittsburgh. If the 56-year-old manager began the 2013 season without changing anything about his style, few would have noticed or complained.

Despite helping Pittsburgh improve from 55 wins in 2010 to 79 in 2012, Hurdle did the opposite. With the help of bright front-office minds, he evolved, per Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. 

By accepting the value of information on defensive shifts and how his pitching staff could maximize the strengths and weaknesses of his defensive alignment, going all-in with a philosophy that was foreign to him during his best years in the dugout, Hurdle placed the 2013 Pirates on a path to success.

That path led to 68 defensive runs saved, according to Fangraphs, good for third in baseball. Hurdle’s adaptability wasn’t highlighted as prominently as wins and losses, but there was a link to a member of Pittburgh’s past who routinely took a similar route to victory.

The full announcement of Hurdle’s victory included this seemingly innocuous fact from the BBWAA:

The Pirates qualified for a wild-card berth with a 94-68 record, the first time they finished a season above .500 since 1992 when they were 96-66 and won the NL East, their previous postseason appearance. Jim Leyland won Manager of the Year honors that season as well as in 1990.

At first glance, including Jim Leyland‘s accolades in a story about Hurdle’s honor feels like nothing more than linking the past and present of success for the Pittsburgh organization. Yet it does much more than that when you think about why Leyland was so successful.

He trusted young players, had the ability to coerce veterans into giving him maximum effort, and, even though he never subscribed to advanced statistics like defensive runs saved, always was open to learning and evolving his thinking.

Decades separated successful managers in Pittsburgh, but their similarities validated the culture change for the franchise. By finding a manager who would do what it took to bring the Pirates back to their past years of glory, the franchise finally moved forward. Clint Hurdle didn’t just win 94 baseball games—he exhumed two decades of uninspired baseball thinking in the name of progress.

Not bad for a manager who had only one winning season on his ledger before 2013.

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On Monday, the Braves shocked the baseball world with the announcement of plans to build a new stadium in the suburbs of Cobb County, Georgia, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. If it feels like Turner Field just opened yesterday, your sense of time isn’t that far off from reality.

After just 17 seasons at Turner Field, the Braves are planning to move, citing the need for expensive upgrades to keep the stadium as a tourist attraction and state-of-the-art venue. The necessity to play closer to the heart of the fanbase, per Deadspin, is also a major part of the story.

With plans set on a move in time for the 2017 season, the Braves will play a grand total of 20 seasons at Turner Field. At first glace, that’s barely enough time to make a few memories. Yet a deeper dive into the history of Turner Field yields a bounty of memorable moments.

The following list celebrates the best moments in a park that will soon cease to exist. Despite never featuring a World Series winning club, Turner Field has been privy to an amazing amount of history in a short time.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

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In New York, the Yankees are preparing to spend money like it’s 2008 all over again. Five years after drowning their third-place finish sorrows away by spending over $400 million combined on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees are poised to hand out big-money deals. The names have changed, but the objective remains to spend.

According to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees are heading to next week’s general manager meetings armed with cash to spend on free agents.

After watching the steady and reliable Andy Pettitte retire and allowing the unsteady and unreliable Phil Hughes to walk away without a qualifying offer, one of general manager Brian Cashman’s main offseason priorities is to find starting pitching behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova in the five-man rotation. Unless Hiroki Kuroda accepts another one-year deal, three potential spots are open.

Even if Michael Pineda emerges from a two-year shoulder rehab to re-capture his 2011 form, the Yankees will need multiple arms to fill out a good rotation. At least one of them will likely emerge from the free-agent market.

Using Heyman’s projected contracts for each of the six starters on New York’s radar, here’s a ranking of the best values of the group. The rankings are based on a 1-10 scale, with higher numbers signifying a better value for the Yankees organization.

Masahiro Tanaka

The 24-year-old Japanese star is the ideal target for New York’s offseason spending plans. As the franchise attempts to spend big while staying under the $189 million luxury tax in 2014, Tanaka represents the best of both worlds.

As chronicled in a September primer, Tanaka profiles as a top-tier starter in the majors. Even if he’s not a true No. 1 starter, adding him to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter is sufficient for New York’s bottom line. 

According to Heyman, a seven-year, $140 million contract is reasonable for Tanaka, but only half of that will actually go the the player. With $70 million allotted as a posting fee for the rights to speak with Tanaka’s agent, the Yankees would only be spending $10 million per season, against the luxury tax, on a pitcher with the potential to emerge as a valuable contributor.

Value ranking: 8

Matt Garza

Despite including Garza, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, as free-agent targets the Yankees should avoid this winter, he’s the second-best value on this board.

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Garza has amassed a 108 ERA+ over 1,049.1 innings pitched. Although that’s good for third on this list, not including Tanaka’s stats from Japan, behind Jimenez (112) and Haren (111), the former Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers starter has brought something to the table the others have not: consistency.

Despite never accumulating one great season or finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting, Garza has never posted a season with an ERA over 4.00. By maintaining a level performance for six straight seasons, the Yankees will know what they are paying for when offering a contract to the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher.

If Garza’s deal comes in near the five-year, $85 million projection, it will be a decent deal for both player and team.

Value ranking: 6

Dan Haren

When the 2011 season ended, Dan Haren looked like the type of pitcher who was poised to eventually hit the free-agent jackpot. After wrapping up an excellent season for the Los Angeles Angels, Haren was the owner of a career-adjusted ERA of 119, according to Baseball-Reference.com. His ability to pitch in both the NL (Arizona, St. Louis) and the AL (Oakland, Los Angeles) made him one of the surest things in the sport.

Over the last two seasons, however, the wheels have come off for the former right-handed ace. Over 60 starts in 2012 and 2013, Haren pitched to a 84 ERA+ over 346.1 innings, per Baseball-Reference.com. That adjusted ERA was 16 percent below league average. In the span of two years, Haren went from nearly 20 percent better than the average pitcher to nearly 20 percent worse. 

Still, the projection of a one-year deal worth less than $10 million is far from a ridiculous pact. Even though Haren is not the pitcher he was just two seasons ago, he’s still a lock for 30-plus starts every year. If the Yankees truly need two veteran starters, they could do worse than inking Haren to be the second-tier arm. 

Value ranking: 5

Bronson Arroyo

As the offseason unfolds, the Yankees can attempt to fix their rotation issues by acquiring high-end ability (Tanaka, Garza), signing a low-risk, high-reward arm (Haren), or, in a route that won’t be as popular in New York, turning spring training into a competition between young arms like David Phelps and Michael Pineda.

If that’s the route Brian Cashman takes, an ultra-reliable arm will be needed if or when the young arms falter during the rigors of a 162-game season. If innings are needed, Bronson Arroyo fits the bill. Over the last nine years, Arroyo has cleared the 199-inning plateau in every single season. 

Of course, the drawback with Arroyo is a lack of upside. As he gets set to embark on his age-37 season, expecting greatness is foolish. Over 14 seasons, the former Boston Red Sox farmhand has pitched to an adjusted ERA of 104. 

On a one or two-year deal, the fit would be ideal. The projection of a three-year, $35 million pact is too high for a pitcher who has little upside.

Value ranking: 4

Ubaldo Jimenez

Will the real Ubaldo Jimenez please stand up? When baseball executives prepare offer sheets for the free-agent starter, it’s likely the offers will vary based on which version of the pitcher is expected to arrive in 2014.

If the Jimenez of 2010 and 2013 is on the market, he’s worth every dollar of the four-year, $68 million deal that is projected by Jon Heyman. If the Jimenez of 2011 and 2012 is back, anything more than a one-year deal is foolish.

The following chart isolates the contrasting versions of Jimenez. Notice the strikeout and strikeout-to-walk numbers. When the former Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians starter has command, he’s excellent. When that command disappears, he’s very easy to hit.

For the money he’ll likely receive, there’s too much variance in performance to be comfortable in New York.

Value ranking: 3

Scott Feldman

Unlike the other pitchers on this list, Feldman doesn’t provide bang for the buck, upside, variance in performance or long-term durability. After 234 outings, Feldman isn’t a surprise anymore. At age 30, the right-handed pitcher should only be brought aboard to compete for a spot in the back-end of a rotation and given no more than a one-year deal.

According to Heyman’s projections, a two-year, $20 million deal could be in his future. For that cash, New York could sign both Haren and Arroyo. 

If February rolls around and Feldman is still available, any team should explore trying to bring him in as spring-training injury insurance or to compete with a young arm on a one-year deal. Until that scenario presents itself, the Yankees would be wise to allocate their funds on an arm who can give them something concrete for the money spent.

Value ranking: 2

Agree? Disagree?

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