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Through the first 18 innings of the Red Sox-Rays ALDS, the American League East champions have protected home field, taken a commanding 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series and bludgeoned a pitching staff that seemed poised to taken on a powerful offense.

Despite throwing flame-throwing left-handers Matt Moore and David Price in Games 1 and 2, respectively, Tampa Bay is returning home to Tropicana Field facing elimination for the third time in less than a week. While losing to Boston, especially in Fenway Park, isn’t a reason for major concern for Joe Maddon’s level-headed group, the fashion of defeat is alarming.

Simply put, Tampa’s pitching hasn’t come close to slowing down Boston’s offense.

Over two games, Boston has put up the following numbers: 19 runs, 25 hits and seven walks. When factoring in the 13 runners left on base by the Red Sox over the last two nights, their run total is even more staggering. They’ve dominated the Rays, yet opportunities to score more have been left on the field.

The numbers are right there for Joe Maddon and the Tampa Bay staff to pore over on a long flight back to Boston, but unless Alex Cobb and Chris Archer have a swift answer over the next two games, this series won’t be coming back to Boston.

In two games, the Red Sox offense has quieted the notion of the Rays pitching staff shutting them down. By making them look human, they’ve taken control of the American League postseason picture.

Here are three reasons for Boston’s overwhelming success against Tampa’s pitching.

1. Continuing the RISP dominance

As I noted when previewing this series, Boston didn’t bludgeon Tampa’s staff during their 19 regular-season meetings, but the Red Sox found ways to get big hits when they mattered while winning 12 of those games.

In October, you can make the case that every moment with a runner in scoring position matters, especially in a short series. Through the first two games, the Red Sox have picked up where they left off and then some.

By hitting nearly .400 (11-for-28) with runners on second or third, Boston’s offense has choked the life out of the Tampa pitching staff. As we saw during Game 2, a crowd and entire roster can be uplifted by getting out of a jam and living with a lead for even a brief period. While Boston’s staff has been able to generate double plays to get out of jams, the Rays have allowed rallies to snowball against them for big innings.

Boston has put a crooked number (more than one run) on the board in five separate innings this series, undoubtedly boosted by its ability to crush the baseball with men on base.

2. Relentless offensive approach

As Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal pointed out after the Game 1 victory, Boston has a “relentless” style of offensive baseball.

From wearing down opposing pitchers with a patient approach to aggressive baserunning to playing the full 27 outs on offense, regardless of the score or situation, Boston has featured a robotic approach to offense from the opening day of the season.

Regardless of the day, opposing pitcher or score, the Red Sox only have one objective when at the plate: score more runs.

That may seem obvious, but that approach isn’t found in every batter in the sport, especially with a lead late in games. Grinding through an at-bat that may seem innocuous is important to the Red Sox. Over the course of 162 games, those kinds of traits and moments can add up to become a team mentality.

On Saturday night, that approach was evident.

Despite a two-run lead and the nearly automatic Koji Uehara ready in the bullpen, David Ortiz stepped to the plate and cranked his second home run of the night off David Price. In the grand scheme of the final score, it didn’t matter. Behind Uehara’s easy final frame, Boston won 7-4 as easily as it would have 6-4.

However, it meant far more than that. After the home run, Rays manager Joe Maddon finally relented and pulled a subpar Price. Using left-handed relief ace Jake McGee may not impact him moving forward, but it was a bullet Maddon had to burn to keep the game within striking distance for his club in the ninth. If Ortiz doesn’t homer, Price likely has a complete game and totally saves the bullpen for a must-win Game 3.

Furthermore, despite failing to break through against the Red Sox bullpen in the seventh or eighth inning, Tampa Bay had chances to score. If not for well-executed double plays by Boston’s infield defense, the Rays may have tied the game before Ortiz’s bomb. Momentum felt like it belonged to the Rays as they attempted to claw back in the game, even against Uehara.

By the time Ortiz’s blast landed near the Pesky Pole in right field, that momentum and hope vanished. The idea of Tampa scoring three runs off Uehara (1.09 ERA) to take the lead was nearly impossible, but needing three just to tie totally zapped the energy from Tampa’s dugout heading into the final inning.

3. Capitalizing on mistakes 

Since the rise of the Rays in 2008, baseball fans have come to expect a few fundamental traits from Tampa Bay’s franchise: ingenuity in roster building, vision from Joe Maddon in the dugout, homegrown pitching and stellar defense in the field.

While two games won’t change the narrative of Tampa’s long-term team-building plan, Maddon’s acumen or the endless string of good young pitching through the system, a playoff series is a poor time to ask questions about the defense.

Through two games, the Rays have committed two errors and made major mental errors in the field. With an offense as powerful (.795 team OPS) and relentless as Boston’s, handing over extra outs is a recipe for disaster.

After the poor communication in Game 1 between Desmond Jennings and Wil Myers in the outfield, Maddon had this to say about how his team would respond on Saturday night, via CBS Sports:

We’ve been playing very well. We’ve not been making any mistakes. We made a bunch tonight. But I’ve also learned one other thing regarding baseball: 24 hours can make a huge difference. That’s just one game, baby. That’s just one. We’ll be back tomorrow, I promise you. We’ll be ready to play. We will not be affected mentally by tonight’s game.

They were back, but the results weren’t much prettier. Two throwing errors set the tone for sloppy play and forced Price, clearly without his best stuff, to record extra outs in order to give the Rays a chance to stay in the game.

As the series shifts back to Tampa, the only chance these Rays have to strike back will be to generate outs when Boston has runners on, stop the bleeding early before Boston’s relentless late-game offense adds insurance runs and find the solid, if not spectacular, defense that’s been part of the franchise’s fabric for years.

If they can’t, a deep, dominant pitching staff will continue to be rendered human. Even worse, they’ll be eliminated with just one more loss.

Can the Rays get the ALDS back to Boston for Game 5?

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After a 28-game turnaround from 2012, 97 victories and an American League East title, the Boston Red Sox have earned home-field advantage throughout the postseason and the right to sit back and watch Tampa Bay and Cleveland battle for the right to arrive at Fenway Park for the ALDS on Friday.

Fans from Tampa to Cleveland to Red Sox players and management will be watching with bated breathe on Wednesday night when Alex Cobb and Danny Salazar toe the rubber at Progressive Field to determine the true AL Wild Card winner for 2013.

Much like the St. Louis Cardinals won’t actively root for a victor on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, the sentiment is surely there deep down for the Red Sox on Wednesday. If anyone in Boston takes an objective look at the potential five-game postseason series battle, rooting interest will be clear.

In order to successfully get through the ALDS and on to bigger things in October, the Red Sox should be rooting for the Indians in the AL Wild Card game.

Before diving into four reasons that cast the Rays as a much bigger threat than the Indians, let’s disclose this fact: Boston played well against both teams during the 2013 regular season. With a 12-7 record over Tampa and 6-1 over Cleveland, the Red Sox will enter the ALDS with confidence against either foe.

Of course, the postseason is a far different animal. Here are four reasons the Red Sox should hope to avoid the Rays.

1. Tampa owns the blueprint for shutting down Boston’s offense

As explained here, the key to shutting down the high-powered Red Sox offense lies in simplicity: Throw strikes, limit walks and pitch deep into games. Despite profiling as a young, inexperienced staff, Tampa has the arms to do just that.

Led by David Price (5.59 SO/BB), the Rays, along with Alex Cobb (2.98 SO/BB) and Chris Archer (2.66 SO/BB), boast three starting pitchers that can limit free passes and Boston’s ability to wear down opposing starters.

If Matt Moore (1.88 SO/BB) can show command and control, his raw stuff is good enough to get Red Sox hitters out on a consistent basis.

Rays manager Joe Maddon has these numbers and every Boston weakness available to him in order to craft a rotation, game plan and game-by-game decisions to derail Boston’s hopes of a sustained October run, but it’s up to the four Tampa arms to execute and render the Red Sox’s best weapon a non-factor.

2. Familiarity

Over the years, the Red Sox-Rays rivalry has become one of the best in baseball. Until 2008, it flew under the radar due to Tampa’s ineptitude during their first decade as a major league team. Of course, that didn’t stop brawls and bench-clearing moments during Boston’s time as powerhouse in the early 2000s.

Since 2008, including the seven-game American League Championship Series that propelled the Rays into their lone World Series appearance, Boston and Tampa have played 116 times. The ledger during those contests: Tampa 62, Boston 54.

Despite roster, managerial and front office changes on either side, the Red Sox and Rays know each other as well as any rivals in the sport.

If Tampa walks into Fenway Park on Friday afternoon for Game 1 of the ALDS, there won’t be any wide eyes or overwhelmed players. Instead, expect business as usual for a team that can call Boston a second home.

3. The overrated narratives of Cleveland’s possible battle with Boston

Look, Terry Francona, days after this quote via Twitter, returning to Boston with a new team and attempting to upset the Red Sox would be a tremendous storyline for baseball writers around the country. Factor in ex-Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson possibly serving as Cleveland’s closer and former hated Yankees in Nick Swisher and Jason Giambi and it’s clear that Indians-Red Sox is a drama made for October television.

Yet, the narratives of Terry’s revenge and Boston ruing the way they treated their two-time World Series champion manager are a bit overrated. Yes, Tito received a raw deal, but Boston is in good hands with the Ben Cherington-John Farrell combination. It’s more than likely that Boston is set up to be a contender for a longer period of time than Cleveland, regardless of the outcome of this potential ALDS.

Most importantly, though, the narrative won’t change the game on the field. Will Francona want to beat the Red Sox more than he would have, say, Baltimore, if the Orioles had won the AL East?

I find that hard to believe.

TBS would undoubtedly recant the highs and lows of Francona‘s tenure in Boston, but unless Ubaldo Jimenez pitches great and Jason Kipnis hits the cover off the ball, it won’t matter. 

4. Boston’s luck over Tampa could be about to run out

In the aftermath of a Boston victory over Tampa on September 12, Rays manager Joe Maddon had this to say (via Boston.com) about potentially seeing the Red Sox down the line: “We’re really looking forward to playing them in the playoffs.”

Maddon could have been foreshadowing the inevitable, but, when looking at the numbers, he might have been offering a glimpse into why his team would want to see Boston in October.

As noted above, the Red Sox won 12 of 19 games over the Rays during the regular season. A deeper dive into those numbers, however, shows how fortunate those 12 wins were.

In an ultra-informative piece written by Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe in mid-September, the Red Sox scribe pointed out how Boston was winning the majority of battles with Tampa despite not hitting the ball very well.

Up to that point, Boston had posted a .207 batting average against Tampa pitching, but that number rose to .280 with runners in scoring position. On the other side, Tampa hit .237, but less than .150 during their best scoring chances.

While 19 games isn’t a very small sample size, it’s not big enough to give those numbers true merit. In other words, Boston’s ability to hit over 130 points higher with men in scoring position may not carry over into the postseason.

If it doesn’t, their margin for error will be very, very small, leading to close games and a managerial battle that can decide the series.

Which team should the Red Sox root for on Wednesday night?

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With one day remaining in the 2013 Major League Baseball regular season, one race is undecided. Heading into play on Sunday, the Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers all control their respective destinies on the path to an American League Division Series date with the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park late next week.

Naturally, with Cleveland a game ahead of both Texas and Tampa Bay heading into the final day of the season, it’s easy to question how all three teams can actually control their own fate. The answer, when weeding through all possible outcomes, is simple: As long as the teams keep winning, they’ll keep playing.

Day-by-day predictions in must-win scenarios are never easy to make, but here’s one I feel confident in: Cleveland, Texas and Tampa Bay will all win on Sunday. With their respective playoff hopes all hanging in the balance, imagining the Indians, Rangers or Rays losing to Scott Diamond (6-12, 5.54 ERA), Jason Vargas (9-7, 4.01) or Todd Redmond (4-2, 3.77), respectively, is hard for me to believe.

Here’s why to like all of the must-win teams on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

With Matt Moore on the hill, the Rays can turn to one of their many young, hard-throwing pitchers in order to stop their two-game losing streak in Canada and get through the weekend alive in the postseason mix.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Todd Redmond to finish its campaign. In 13 starts, Redmond has been very effective, limiting opponents to three or fewer runs 10 times.

If there’s an X-factor in Sunday’s game, however, look to Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. In three plate appearances against Redmond this season, Longoria has already homered. As we know from the finale of the 2011 season, Tampa’s best player has a flair for the dramatic in these late-season games.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Despite winning only five games in a 22-day span to start September, the Rangers enter the last day of the season with a chance to get back to October for the fourth straight year.

In perhaps the biggest mismatch of the afternoon, Texas will throw Yu Darvish against Angels lefty Jason Vargas.

While Vargas, a longtime Mariner before last offseason’s trade to the Angels, is familiar with pitching in Arlington, that familiarity doesn’t necessarily mean success will follow. In 56.1 career innings in Texas, Vargas has pitched to a 4.47 ERA and allowed 10 home runs.

If Darvish (2.22 ERA past four starts) is his usual self, Vargas will have to be close to perfect to knock Texas out. Judging by the venue, he’s not up to the task.

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins

If Cleveland’s offense, with a berth in the Wild Card Game on the line, can’t beat up Twins starter Scott Diamond, the Indians might not deserve a ticket to October baseball.

As Diamond’s 2013 pitching log shows, the lefty has posted an 8-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio since early July. No, that ratio isn’t backwards. He’s walked 19 and only struck out eight batters since his start prior to the All-Star break.

It’s hard to imagine any pitcher having success with that type of arsenal, let alone one pitching in the American League. Not surprisingly, Diamond’s ERA is 6.26 over that span.

The Indians are fifth in the major leagues in runs for a reason: They punish pitchers like Scott Diamond.

It doesn’t hurt that the Indians will have Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound. In a resurgent 2013 campaign, Jimenez is 12-9 with a 3.38 ERA—with 10 strikeouts in his one start against the Twins this year.

If all three wild-card contenders emerge victorious, Cleveland will fly home to await the winner of a Texas-Tampa Bay tiebreaker game.

The Aftermath

For the Indians, the scenario is quite simple. A win on Sunday guarantees them a wild-card game at Progressive Field on Wednesday. The outcome in Texas and Toronto (where the Rays are playing this weekend) is irrelevant to the Indians’ postseason fate on the final day of the 2013 season. Win and they are one of five American League postseason teams.

For Tampa Bay and Texas, the tie complicates matters. If the teams, both sitting at 90-71, depart Sunday’s action with identical records (91-71 or 90-72) while Cleveland wins, they’ll meet on Monday in a one-game playoff to determine which team heads to Cleveland for the Wild Card Game on Wednesday.

Of course, a chaos scenario is possible. If Tampa and Texas both win and Cleveland loses in Minnesota, all three teams would end the season at 91-71. That would set up a tiebreaking three-way tilt to determine the American League Wild Card. To keep it simple, as Mike Axisa of CBS Sports tried to in this post, the following schedule would then take place:

Monday: Rays at Indians
Tuesday: Rays-Indians loser at Rangers
Wednesday: Tuesday winner at Monday winner

Now that the details have been determined, which team will emerge as the lone AL wild-card winner?

Based on what we know, what could be and the overall strength of the contenders at hand, expect the Tampa Bay Rays to open up the postseason in Fenway Park, leaving the Rangers and Indians on the outside looking in.

Although the Rays would have to win back-to-back do-or-die playoff games (three if you include Sunday at Toronto), they have the pitching depth lined up to make it happen.

On Sunday, Joe Maddon will throw All-Star left-hander Matt Moore. In 11 innings against Toronto this season, Moore has limited the Jays to just three runs. If Tampa gets to the tiebreaker game against Texas, it’ll have the 2012 Cy Young winner, David Price, ready to go.

As for the Rangers, they’re lining up Yu Darvish, every bit the equal to Price or any other American League ace, to pitch them into a tiebreaker game on Monday.

But unless Ron Washington has an ace up his sleeve, Texas will turn to Martin Perez in Monday’s game with Tampa. In order to stage a run back from the wild-card abyss last week, the Rangers needed to use Matt Garza, Derek Holland and Yu Darvish, their three-headed strikeout machine, just to get to where they are now.

If Price defeats Perez in a tiebreaker on Monday, Tampa will fly to Cleveland for the official American League Wild Card Game on Wednesday evening. Judging by what Terry Francona said before Cleveland’s victory on Saturday, the Indians don’t seem inclined to put their prime position in jeopardy by holding back Ubaldo Jimenez from his Sunday start.

By asking Jimenez to pitch them to Wednesday, which is the right move, the Indians leave themselves vulnerable in a potential battle against Rays right-hander Alex Cobb.

While Texas is hot and Cleveland is in prime position, the Rays have the horses to get through the American League obstacle course that the schedule has created for baseball fans.

All three teams can win. All three teams can lose. Due to only having to win two games, as opposed to three, the Indians seem like the logical choice to head to Boston next weekend.

Logic, however, rarely works when the Rays and late-season magic mix.

Back-to-back losses in Toronto have hurt Tampa Bay’s chances, but it still has the best pitching and should prevail.

Which team will emerge as the American League Wild Card?

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In the midst of an awful season, the San Francisco Giants made a preemptive strike to secure their future place in the NL West standings by agreeing to re-sign right fielder Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90 million contract on Saturday.

The deal, reported by CSN Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly, rewards Pence for an outstanding 2013 in which he’s played in every game and hit the to the tune of a .282/.339/.481 slash line. That production is good enough for a 136 OPS+ when factoring in the run-suppressing environment in San Francisco.  

Of course, what Pence has done is not necessarily a great indicator of what he will do over the next five seasons in the middle of the San Francisco order. For the Giants to get optimum value out of their commitment to Pence over the next five seasons, he’ll have to stave off regression and continue to average over 3 WAR per season, if not his 4.2 mark of 2013, per Baseball-Reference.com.

At first glance, the deal seems to be an egregious overpay, but when looking at some recent contracts for corner outfielders, the deal simply becomes a risk for San Francisco. Unless Pence totally breaks down or reverts into a league average player in the very near future, the contract shouldn’t cripple the Giants franchise.

As the following chart shows, Pence posted the fifth-highest adjusted OPS in the three years prior to signing the lucrative deal, yet only received the eighth-largest commitment. While it’s easy to think that Pence wasn’t worth $34-44 million more than the two players, Jason Bay and Nick Swisher, that he out-earned, his deal does not come across as an instant albatross either. 

That look at the most recent lucrative deals to corner outfielders does come with caveats, though. As the 2013 season comes to a close, Pence is completing his age-30 season. His three years leading up to the massive payday occurred during his 28-, 29- and 30-year-old seasons, leaving San Francisco responsible for paying him through his early and mid-30s. 

In retrospect, major commitments to Vernon Wells and Matt Kemp by Toronto and Los Angeles, respectively, may have been mistakes, but those players were just entering their primes at the time of inking the deals in excess of $100 million. In theory, their clubs could have been predicting even better production before decline hit.

With Pence, 2013 is likely the baseline for his best. As a player who has never walked 100 times in a season or rated as a good defender (-3.1 dWAR for his career), age isn’t likely to be as kind to him as a player like, say, Jayson Werth. When the Nationals gave Werth a $126 million deal after the 2010 season, eyebrows were raised, but the then-31-year-old arrived in D.C. as an excellent defender capable of playing center field as well as a corner, and had the plate discipline to thrive with age even if his physical skills eroded.

Many times, the success or failure of commitments like the new deal for Pence is measured in absolutes. While deals for Crawford, Soriano, Hamilton and Bay have been characterized as disasters and Holliday and Werth look to be successes, Pence’s deal is likely to fall somewhere in the middle.

If the Giants expect a 4.2 WAR or better every season for the next five years, they’ve made a grave mistake. On the other hand, Pence is too solid and too durable to project as a player that will go in the tank early in the life of the contract.

Speaking of durability, Pence’s ability to take the field on an everyday basis should give the Giants a reason to believe he’ll provide value and production during this deal. Since his call-up in 2007, Pence has averaged 151 games per season. When looking at the entire league since 2008 (Pence’s first full year in Houston), it’s clear how durable Pence has been. 

The Giants didn’t commit $90 million to a player on the verge of a breakout or with the ability to carry a team. Instead, they committed to a player who they can count on to play 150-plus games per season, bat in the middle of the order and hit 20-25 home runs. 

Hunter Pence never struck me as a $90 million player, but when looking at the recent history of corner outfielders and the steadying presence of this two-time All-Star, the Giants stand a better chance to get bang for their buck than many franchises have lately when signing over a check this large.

Is Hunter Pence worth $90 million?

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Chances are 38-year-old middle relievers don’t usually become stars overnight, but due to injuries in the Boston Red Sox bullpen, Koji Uehara had the opportunity to become one this summer. After months of dominance, Boston and its new closer head to October as a candidate to reach the World Series. 

In the aftermath of Mariano Rivera’s farewell, baseball fans in New York, Boston and around the country can agree on the importance of having a relief pitcher capable of getting the biggest outs in October. In order for the Red Sox to thrive in the postseason, they’ll need the insanely dominant Uehara to maintain his amazing season under the pressure of the brightest lights in the sport.

Before finding a way to dissect if Uehara is ready for the challenge, let’s take a minute to reminisce about the season he just completed.

As the table below shows, the Red Sox closer has posted the third-best single-season SO/BB ratio in the history of relief pitchers with a minimum of 70 innings. When including ERA+ into the equation, it’s reasonable to make a case that the top three seasons in the history of relief pitching belong to Dennis Eckersley, Koji Uehara and Mariano Rivera.

That, folks, is amazing company.

Of course, as we’ve seen over the last two decades with closers like Mark Wohlers, Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan, regular-season success doesn’t always transition to postseason dominance.

With Uehara, however, expect his full body of work in America to translate into and through October. In other words, after examining body of work for the Japanese reliever, it’s clear that he’s not a one-hit wonder. The Red Sox have a dominant reliever set to give them a big weapon against the American League postseason field.

While all of Uehara’s numbers (72.1 IP, 99 SO, 9 BB, 1.12 ERA, 21 SV) are impressive, his ability to bear down when runners reach base gives an indication that he will be prepared to escape pressure-packed jams in the postseason.

For the season, Boston’s closer limited batters to a .149 batting average with runners in scoring position. That number dropped to .132 with any runners on base. The path to a 1.12 ERA was filled with stranding runners on the basepath.

Furthermore, Uehara excels, both in 2013 and for the full body of his career since 2009, at dominating hitters in high-leverage situations. While the term can be self-explanatory, we’ll let the folks at Baseball-Reference define what high leverage means in the context of each game.

As stated on B-R’s website, high-leverage is defined:

Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a give situation and situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LI’s than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (late innings of a 12-run blowout).

Or, to put it simply, when the game is on the line and the outcome undecided, Uehara is at his best. In 2013, opposing batters posted a .124/.149/.206 slash line against the Red Sox reliever in those situations. For the entirety of his Major League Baseball career, the opposition has hit .193/.215/.320 in high-leverage spots against him. During those moments, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an insane 11.56.

To put those numbers into perspective, when a game is hanging in the balance, Uehara has reduced the opposition to hitting like pitchers and had pinpoint control better than Curt Schilling in his prime.

Predicting the outcome of random October moments before they arrive is presumptuous, but if Red Sox fans are looking to have confidence in the biggest moments of an ALCS game against the Detroit Tigers, the career numbers of 2013’s best reliever don’t lie. 

Time will tell if Uehara steps up to become an October hero, but his entire body of work suggests he’s ready for the challenge of a Miguel Cabrera-Prince Fielder-Victor Martinez challenge in a one-run game next month.

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On August 31, the Texas Rangers won their 79th game of the 2013 season by defeating the Minnesota Twins in Arlington. At that juncture, heading into the final month of the regular season, the Rangers were 23 games over .500 (79-56), held a two-game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the American League West and seemed poised to head back to the postseason for the fourth consecutive October.

Since that night, Texas has won six baseball games. They’ve long since surrendered the AL West to Oakland and sit on the outside of the postseason picture with just six games remaining in their season.

After a disastrous month (6-15 in 21 September games), Texas is limping to the finish line, possibly headed home without playoff baseball and into an offseason of questions. Yet, if they can rally to surpass either Tampa Bay or Cleveland for a wild-card spot, the American League will welcome a very dangerous contender into the postseason party.

Here are five reasons why the Rangers are a team that Boston, Detroit and Oakland should all fear.

1. The three-headed monster of Darvish-Holland-Garza

In October, strikeout pitchers rule.

The ability to miss bats, dominate the strike zone and limit big innings by keeping balls out of play is the formula pitching coaches look for to navigate through the best and most powerful lineups in baseball.

In Texas, thanks to a midseason trade for Matt Garza, the Rangers have a three-headed pitching monster that profiles as well, if not better, than the top three arms in Boston, Detroit or Oakland.

During a 2010 conversation with USA Today, Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey had this to say about strikeout pitchers in October baseball: “I think every team would prefer to go in with power arms. If you get a dominant pitcher who strikes people out … there’s no other variables.”

One of the arms on Hickey’s staff in 2010? Matt Garza.

2. Joe Nathan’s presence

If you’re a New York Yankee fan, laughter is likely ensuing. While it’s true that Nathan doesn’t have the most sparkling career postseason ERA (9.00), he is healthy and proven. Unlike the closing situations in Pittsburgh or St. Louis, injury or fatigue isn’t a concern in the Texas bullpen.

When Ron Washington has a lead late in the game, Joe Nathan will be willing and able to shut the door down like he has 40 times this year. Plus, Nathan has actually become better with age. Barring a poor final week, the 38-year-old closer will finish with his lowest career ERA.

3. Adrian Beltre’s ability to take over a series

During my time watching and covering baseball, I’ve probably referred to Adrian Beltre in many different ways.

Steady. Defensive wizard. Underrated. Future Hall of Famer. Today, we’ll use another: Dominant.

As the unquestioned leader and best everyday player in Texas, Beltre’s leadership, defense and power bat can take over a short series. As we witnessed during a postseason series against Tampa in 2011, Beltre can shine brightest on the biggest stage.

If the Rangers do qualify and make a big run through October, the star quality of Beltre will be a big reason why.

4. Nelson Cruz’s potential return

Before accepting a 50-game suspension for his role in the Biogenesis scandal, Nelson Cruz was having a career year. Through 108 games, the Texas right fielder was on pace to set career highs in home runs, runs batted in, walks and runs scored.

Now, with his suspension up before the start of the postseason, the Rangers must make a decision: bring him back to the team or keep him away like the San Francisco Giants did with Melky Cabrera en route to a World Series title last year.

If Texas chooses to insert Cruz back into their lineup, he can provide protection for Beltre and add another major bat to Ron Washington’s order. As we saw during the 2011 American League Championship Series (6 HR, 13 RBI), Cruz can carry a lineup when he’s hot.

5. Experience

Last, but certainly not least. Texas isn’t a young team trying to make the leap or an old, over-the-hill group gasping for one last taste of October.

Although the team has gone in the wrong direction in three consecutive seasons (World Series runner-up, AL Wild Card, and, now on the outside of the postseason picture), many of the same players (Ian Kinsler, Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moreland, Holland) are still around from a team on the doorstep of a title.

From 2010-2012, the Texas Rangers played in 34 postseason games. Reaching October will be a challenge, but the bright lights of postseason baseball won’t bother this Rangers group.

Due to a combination of talent, reinforcements and experience, the Rangers have a shot to do damage in October. Now, the tricky part: qualifying for a chance to make noise.

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At 93-61, the Boston Red Sox are steamrolling the American League, guaranteed a spot in the postseason and likely headed for the top seed in the league.

When October arrives, expect Boston to take on the winner of the six-team wild-card bonanza currently taking place in the American League. Assuming Boston does hold on to the top spot in eh AL, it will be taking on an opponent that expended energy throughout September just to reach the Division Series.

Will the Red Sox take advantage and move on to the American League Championship Series? If they do, they’ll reach that juncture after beating one of the following clubs: Tampa Bay, Texas, Cleveland, Kansas City, Baltimore or New York.

The following is a breakdown of Red Sox’s potential opponents, starting with the team they would most like to see in October and counting down to the wild-card contender they should hope to avoid.

*All statistics and records valid through the start of play on September 20. The author is predicting Boston holds on to the top spot, with Detroit and Oakland winning the other divisions, which is why they are not included.

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One of the greatest careers in New York Yankees history is coming to an end.

As first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Andy Pettitte has announced he will retire at the conclusion of the 2013 Yankees season:

The 41-year-old left-handed pitcher has two more scheduled starts—Sunday vs. the San Francisco Giants and next weekend in his hometown of Houston vs. the Astros—to add to his ledger of 255 career victories. Barring a miracle sprint to the finish by New York, Pettitte will not be afforded a trip to the postseason to add to his October legacy of 19 victories and five World Series rings.

Few could have predicted the success story of a 22nd-round pick in 1990, but as Pettitte prepares to depart from Major League Baseball for good, his career deserves celebration.

Competing for 15 of 18 seasons as a New York Yankee, Pettitte did more than enough to put himself among the all-time greats to ever wear the pinstripes. According to Baseball-Reference.com‘s Wins Above Replacement metric, Pettitte is the 12th-most valuable player in the history of the franchise.

Considering the 9.4 WAR he racked up, despite battling elbow issues, from 2004 to 2006 in Houston, it’s safe to assume Pettitte would be one of the six most valuable players in the history of baseball’s most successful franchise had his career not taken him away from New York for three seasons.

When you look at the top five names on that list, Pettitte’s career and achievements become even more remarkable. Between Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Derek Jeter resides the pantheon of Yankees greatness dating back almost 100 years. Pettitte’s value wasn’t quite in that category, but his longevity and ability placed him in the next tier.

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of the list above: the arrival, within a matter of a few years, of Jeter, Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams. After a difficult start to the 1990s, the Yankees called up four players who all ended up as top-15 contributors in franchise history.

The end of Pettitte’s career will conjure up many memories for baseball fans in New York, but nothing will stand out more than big-game performances and October success. Led by the four young, dominant stars of the late ’90s, the Yankees reeled off four World Series titles in a matter of five seasons.

A look through Pettitte’s video highlight archives at MLB.com reveals transcendent performances in the month of October. Considering the Yankees took their first step toward a dynasty in October of 1996, it’s hard to imagine a more memorable night for Pettitte than Game 5 of the 1996 World Series.

Against a future Hall of Fame pitcher in John Smoltz, the 24-year-old Yankees lefty put his stamp on the Fall Classic by pitching into the ninth inning and not allowing a single run. One of the greatest pitching duels in World Series history was a performance by Andy Pettitte.

Hundreds and hundreds of words from the start of this piece, the headline question still must be answered fully: Where does Andy Pettitte rank among the all-time Yankees greats?

As detailed, an objective look at his career puts him in the top 15 in Yankees history, but considering the success, longevity and championships secured during his career, acknowledging Pettitte as one of the 10 best players in franchise history is not a stretch.

Among starting pitchers, only Whitey Ford and Ron Guidry appear on the list along with Pettitte. The Bronx Bombers have been known for impact bats over the years, but the three left-handed Yankees pitching stars stood out and deserve inclusion among the great bats.

The following table puts the careers of Ford, Guidry and Pettitte into context using ERA-plus. Due to the vastly different eras they played in (Ford in the 1950s and ’60s, Guidry in the ’70s and ’80s, Pettitte since 1995), adjusting their career earned run averages to fit the time gives us an indication of who performed the best in their respective days.

Using ERA-plus, Ford is clearly the top starter of the three, but Pettitte and Guidry are very, very close. The greatest starter in Yankees history remains Whitey Ford, but given his slight edge over Guidry and 19 postseason wins, Andy Pettitte walks away from New York as the second-best starting pitcher in the long, storied history of the franchise.

In perhaps the most fitting tribute a team can afford a player, it will likely be a long, long time until the New York Yankees can develop, cultivate and keep a pitcher good and durable enough to provide over 50 WAR and multiple World Championships to their franchise.

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As the 2013 New York Mets limp toward the conclusion of their fifth straight losing campaign, the organization will look toward better days ahead.

With David Wright signed to a long-term deal, former top prospects like Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud forming the nucleus of their September roster and National League All-Star starter Matt Harvey on the mend due to arm trouble, reinforcements are needed to add to the puzzle in Queens for 2014 and beyond.

This coming winter, the franchise has promised to spend money on veteran talent, but if the Mets are going to surprise in 2014 or 2015, they’ll need a surge of talent to explode through their minor league system.

With the 2013 minor league year in the books, here’s a ranking of the top 10 prospects in the New York Mets’ system.

Before long, some—if not many—of these players will become household names in Queens.

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The 2013 Atlanta Braves can pump the breaks on their intensity over the final two weeks of the regular season. After all, at 30 games over .500 (88-58) and with a double-digit lead in the National League East, they are a virtual lock to win the division and host the first two games of a National League Division Series at Turner Field.

However, if the team does not want to lose their fire and competitive edge before October arrives, there are three ways to accomplish the task of staying sharp, playing to win on a nightly basis and mentally preparing for the start of very meaningful baseball.

First, and easily the most important: Recognize how much home-field advantage means.

In general, home-field advantage in the postseason doesn’t guarantee anything, but for this particular Braves team the difference between playing at Turner Field and on the road has been stark.

At 51-20 in Atlanta, the Braves own baseball’s best home-field advantage this season. No other team has less than 25 losses at home. Considering that less than half the season is played at home, Atlanta’s home-field difference prorates to more than 10 games better than any team in the sport over the course of a full season.

Meanwhile, the Braves are in danger of taking a losing road record (37-38) with them into October. They are currently the lone division leader sporting a losing record away from their building. If a Division Series or League Championship Series comes down to a deciding game, lineup decisions and starting pitching might have to do less with advancing than the simple fact of where Atlanta plays the game.

Heading into play Friday evening, Atlanta owns a two-game advantage over Los Angeles for the National League’s No. 1 seed in October. That lead is three over Pittsburgh and St. Louis atop the Central.

Winning games over the next few weeks isn’t paramount to earning a spot in October, but it could make the difference on how far the team can go when they arrive to the big stage.

Outside of a tangible reason for keeping an edge, the Braves can invent competitive moments to stoke their fire.

In other words, the benches-clearing melee (via MLB.com) that occurred in Miami earlier this week when a Marlins rookie pitcher admired his first career long ball.

Did the 21-year-old Jose Fernandez need to showboat after the shot and spit when rounding third base? Of course not. Did the Braves have to make it a bigger deal by confronting the kid? Of course not.

We’ll never know, but it’s possible that Atlanta was looking for a reason to care about an otherwise innocuous midweek game against a listless Marlins team in front of a mostly empty stadium in Miami.

If that’s the kind of thing that can keep an edge until the first week of October, Braves fans won’t mind.

Lastly, the team with the biggest division lead in baseball can circle their calender for next week’s series against the second-place Washington Nationals.

Although the Nats have played much, much better baseball in September (9-2 over last 11 games), they’ve only been able to cut Atlanta’s lead from 15.5 games on Aug. 18 to 11 heading into play Friday.

That margin, however, conveniently creates a scenario where the Braves can clinch the division against Washington in a series that begins Monday in Nationals Park.

The ability to win the division, on the road, against last year’s National League East champions should be enough motivation to get Atlanta through the early part of next week.

Fight for home field. Find an edge in the smallest creases of the game. Finish the division in Washington.

The blueprint for solid, winning baseball in Atlanta is simple. If they follow it and play decent ball until October, narratives won’t follow them into the postseason.

If they scuffle over the last 16 games this month, expect the team to be faced with questions about peaking too early before they even drop a postseason game.

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