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Losing Brett Gardner Is More Damaging to the Yankees Than Derek Jeter

Despite his status as a future Hall of Famer and team captain, the Yankees could actually be better off without Derek Jeter down the stretch of the season.

The same can’t be said when discussing the loss of Brett Gardner, via CBS Sports, to an injured oblique Thursday night in Camden Yards.

If the 30-year-old center fielder is gone for any length of time, it’s likely that his 2013 regular season is over. Those fears were confirmed on Friday by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

With only 15 games left in New York’s schedule, their lead-off hitter, defensive wizard and base-stealing threat would be hard pressed to return if the injury is indeed this severe. Just days ago, New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis was shut down for the remainder of the season after suffering from a very similar ailment.

Jeter’s absence is felt when discussing leadership and his ability to change the game offensively if he’s healthy, but health has not been a given for Jeter for over a year.

Gardner, on the other hand, after missing most of the 2012 season due to an elbow injury, was one of the most durable and value pieces of the 2013 Yankees puzzle. The 55 players used by Joe Girardi over the course of New York’s roller coaster season was not a byproduct of ailments to his everyday center fielder.

While the team has a very capable outfielder, not to mention a former every day center fielder, in Curtis Granderson to plug back into that spot during Garnder’s absence, the loss will have a ripple effect on the batting order and defense.

Unfortunately for Joe Girardi, replacing Gardner with Granderson isn’t a simple equation. Offensively, Gardner’s ability to work counts, walks and provide speed and base running atop the batting order made him an ideal lead off hitter in front of Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano.

Simply put, Curtis Granderson isn’t a top of the lineup hitter.

Over the past four seasons, dating back to 2010, Gardner’s on-base percentage is .358. During that same time, Granderson’s is .338.

Of course, Granderson, hitting in the middle of the order, can provide tremendous power and run production, but solving the top of the order issue becomes more complicated when factoring in the player that will likely get the assignment: Ichiro Suzuki.

Yes, the future Hall of Famer and Japanese star, freshly off a celebration of 4,000 professional hits, is probably slated for at-bats atop New York’s order in the midst of the tight American League wild-card race.

If this was the Ichiro that dominated Major League pitching from 2001-2010 to the tune of a .331/.376/.430 slash line, the Yankees would be in great shape. Unfortunately, that Suzuki no longer exists.

Over the last three seasons, Suzuki has reached base at a .307 clip. That figure has dipped to .302 this season.

While Suzuki can still run (20 stolen bases) when he reaches base, he doesn’t arrive at first base enough to make the kind of impact Gardner can on a game-to-game basis.

Of course, Gardner’s value is far from just on the offensive side of the game.

An outfield, left to right, of Alfonso Soriano, Curtis Granderson and Ichiro Suzuki will miss the range of Brett Gardner in center.

According to Baseball Info Solutions‘ defensive runs saved metric, Gardner has saved six runs above average this season in center for the Yankees. Since the start of the 2011 season, Curtis Granderson has cost New York fifteen runs on defense. Thus, it’s easy to see why the organization made the decision to swap their positions way back in spring training.

Losing Derek Jeter, the former on-base/speed/spark plug for excellent Yankee teams is a blow, but not hard to overcome with a combination of Brendan Ryan and Eduardo Nunez.

Losing Brett Gardner, the current on-base/speed/spark plug for a Yankee team fighting for their postseason life is a blow that will be very difficult to overcome due to Curtis Granderson’s defensive issues and Ichiro Suzuki’s declining offensive game.

After a year of disabled list stints and epitaphs, write off the 2013 Yankees at your own risk, but losing Gardner could be a tough blow for this roster to take in the late rounds of what has been a heavyweight fight for an AL playoff berth.

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8 Biggest Takeaways from the 2014 MLB Schedule Release

As the 2013 Major League Baseball season winds down, the sport looks ahead to new beginnings in 2014. 

On Tuesday, via MLB.com, a tentative schedule was released for next season, marking the path to the pennant races through a 162-game marathon.

For those who like to plan ahead, want to make that cross-country baseball excursion or just can’t wait for new storylines and narratives to emerge, here are the eight biggest takeaways from the 2014 MLB schedule release.

 

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Why the Pittsburgh Pirates Should Be ‘America’s Team’ in 2013

To give you an idea of how long it’s been since the Pittsburgh Pirates posted a winning campaign, take a minute to soak up the landscape of Major League Baseball all the way back in the summer of 1992.

Among the numerous differences in the sport between then and now, the following stand out:

-Each league featured only two divisions, an East and West.

-Wild cards were not part of the postseason landscape.

-The Milwaukee Brewers finished second…in the American League East.

-Pittsburgh won the NL East by nine games over the Montreal Expos.

-The Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays didn’t exist as franchises.

-Southern California’s baseball team was still referred to as the California Angels.

-Cal Ripken Jr. was still three years away from surpassing Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games played streak.

-The impending 1994 players’ strike wasn’t yet on the baseball radar.

-A 28-year-old Barry Bonds won the National League MVP for Pittsburgh after leading the NL in walks, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, OPS+, runs, runs created, offensive WAR and extra-base hits.

In other words, it was a long, long time ago.

At 82-61, the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates have exhumed years of losing and frustration to post their first winning record in 21 years. In the process, they have announced themselves as a true World Series contender.

Led by a group of homegrown stars (Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte), veteran castoffs enjoying a second life to their respective careers (Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett) and shrewd trade acquisitions (Mark Melancon, Marlon Byrd, Gaby Sanchez) from general manager Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh is the best story in the sport.

From 57 wins in 2010 to 72 in 2011 to 79 in 2012, their rise has been quick and swift. Now, combined with the nostalgia that surrounds their last winning season occurring a generation ago, the Pirates deserve a spot as “America’s Team” in the 2013 postseason.


If you aren’t a diehard from Los Angeles, AtlantaBoston or Detroit, there’s only one team to pull for in the 2013 postseason: your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Too often, storylines and narratives are concocted by the media to fit seamlessly into a column, blog post or tweet. With this Pirates team, from ex-New York players like Byrd, Russell Martin and Burnett, there is an element of big to small-market shift. There is an MVP candidate in McCutchen, raw power from Alvarez, a blazing fastball from Cole and a dominant bullpen, led by Jason Griilli.

Individually, the Pirates have only a few players that would be identifiable as stars across the sport. As a group, though, they are an underdog story that has risen to the top of the majors. 

Plus, Pittsburgh hasn’t seen winning baseball since Barry Bonds’ (initial) prime. Although Pittsburgh is known as a football (Steelers) and hockey (Penguins) town now, it was once one of the most vibrant cities in baseball.

During the 1940s, ’50s and into the early ’60s, Pittsburgh routinely finished in the top half of baseball in attendance. Those days are gone, but expect seats to be filled in October.


The ingredients are there to make a sustained run in the postseason, so hop on board now. The Bucs Bus is steamrolling toward October, accepting applicants and poised for magic once it arrives. 

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Should You Take the Pittsburgh Pirates Seriously as a World Series Contender?

The most amazing part, at least to me, of the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates rise to prominence—The quick and seismic shift from “The Pirates finally got over .500!” to “The Pirates are World Series contenders!”

Yes, folks, they are.

By achieving win No. 82 tonight with a 1-0 victory over the Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh exhumed two decades of demons, frustrations and ineptitude. By doing it so early in September and leading the NL Central, Pittsburgh isn’t talking about just a .500 finish.

Instead, they’re thinking bigger. As in October.

As the summer progressed it was pretty clear that the Pirates weren’t going to collapse and miss out on .500 again. Of course, we can easily call the 2011 and 2012 finishes collapses in order to fit within the narrative of losing seasons in the Steel City, but, in reality, the Pirates have been on an extreme upswing for years.

After winning only 57 games in 2010, they jumped to 72 in 2011 and 79 in 2012. The latter two seasons coincided with Clint Hurdle’s first two years on the job.

Now, in 2013, they are over .500 and on the path to a National League playoff berth.

When they arrive there baseball fans should take them very, very seriously to make noise in October.

Why? Here are three reasons.

First, and most importantly, Pittsburgh has two front-line starting pitchers. While the names Liriano and Burnett may not strike fear into the psyche of opposing batters, they should. Based on the production from both this season, few pitchers in the sport have been better.

Heading into play on Monday, four starting pitchers in baseball had K/9 rates of at least 9.0 and ground ball percentages of at least 50. In other words, that’s the ability to strikeout a batter per inning and generate grounders on half of balls put into play.

Those four names: Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett.

Not Matt Harvey or Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish. Just four names, two of which headline the Pittsburgh staff.

When manager Clint Hurdle sets up his postseason rotation, he has two aces to throw at the National League.

Second, Pittsburgh has an all-around star that can lead them to great heights.

Andrew McCutchen‘s ability to change the game with power (.518 slugging), speed (27 stolen bases) and defense (eight runs saved, according to Baseball-Reference’s defensive runs saved stat via Baseball Info Solutions).

With lineup protection from Pedro Alvarez and the recently acquired duo of Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd, pitchers will have to challenge McCutchen. It’s likely he’ll make them pay at some point.

Lastly, literally and figuratively, is a dominant 1-2 punch at the back end of the bullpen.

With the recent return of All-Star Jason Grilli (currently in low-leverage situations before transitioning back to closer), and Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh has an 8th-9th inning combo that has combined to strikeout 128 batters in just 107.2 innings.

In other words, when Pittsburgh has the lead after seven innings, the door is almost always slammed shut from there.

High-end starting pitching, an MVP candidate patrolling center field and a dominant bullpen combo.

At the risk of upsetting the city of New York, that formula sounds awfully reminiscent of what the Yankees used in the mid-to-late 90s to launch a dynasty.

Take the Pirates seriously, baseball fans.

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5 MLB Players Not Getting Enough Respect for Big 2013 Seasons

Respect, in terms of baseball fans and media, is a tricky thing.

If a player is having a good year on a lousy team, he’s a candidate to be overlooked.

If a player started off the year slowly only to rebound when the national media stopped making daily appearances in his clubhouse, flying under the radar is possible.

Yet in an era of social media and tremendous baseball-statistics websites like Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, players in the midst of big seasons really shouldn’t be overlooked in 2013.

For the following five players, that has transpired.

Here’s Bleacher Report’s best take at unearthing those respective seasons to ensure proper respect.

*All statistics valid through the start of play on September 6. WAR via Fangraphs.

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Everything Yankees Fans Need to Know About Japanese Target Masahiro Tanaka

According to Mark Hale of the New York Post, the Yankees have sent representatives to Japan to scout Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. The 24-year-old right-hander, already in his seventh professional season, was profiled recently by Jonah Keri of Grantland and is expected to make the move to America for the 2014 season.

At the end of the 2013 season, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes are set to hit the free agent market. Due to a recent surge, Ivan Nova has put himself squarely into the picture behind CC Sabathia in the 2014 Yankees rotation plans. Beyond that? There are holes to fill.

With Billy Eppler and Don Wakamatsu already gathering information on Tanaka‘s value for the Yankees, it’s time for the New York fanbase to get to know a pitcher that could be part of the hot stove picture this offseason.

First and foremost, two things jump out when perusing Tanaka‘s statistics from Japan: A 19-0 record and declining K/9 rates over the last two seasons.

While wins and losses can be deceiving and ultimately factor in many things other than the performance of an individual pitcher, 19-0 is quite impressive. It’s also very likely to open the eye of fans here in American when Tanaka‘s name does become mainstream in November or December.

As for the K/9 rates: Although Tanaka is missing bats at a smaller rate in 2012 and 2013 than he did in 2011, his ERA (1.20) and WHIP (0.93) are currently career bests.

Projecting the ultimate fate of a Japanese pitcher in Major League Baseball can be an arduous task, but Baseball America‘s Ben Badler was up to the chore in his evaluation of Tanaka in August.

In that evaluation, Badler gave a glimpse into what kind of pitcher Tanaka is expected to be in America, saying, “The most prized talent in Japan is Tanaka, a 24-year-old who some scouts project as a potential No. 2 starter who can immediately step into a major league rotation.”

He went on to describe Tanaka‘s arsenal on the mound that has him projected to succeed to the level of a No. 2 starter in Major League Baseball:

At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70 splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low- to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as well.

If you’re more of a visual evaluator when it comes to pitching talent, here is video of Tanaka on the hill:

As you can tell by watching the film and through Badler‘s excellent description, Tanaka‘s splitter is tremendous. It’s easy to imagine left-handed hitters struggling to decipher that pitch, regardless of league or level.

Aesthetically, Tanaka reminds me of Hiroki Kurdoa. The difference? Kuroda came to America as a 33-year-old, without much hype and has pitched under the radar for most of his tenure in Major League Baseball. With a 119 ERA-plus in nearly 1,100 major league innings, Kuroda has been a perfect number two starter for both the Dodgers and Yankees.

Due to his age upon arrival, reluctance to take long-term deals or play in a city not named Los Angeles or New York, Kuroda has curtailed his earning potential.

Don’t expect Tanaka to due to the same.

The success of Kuroda, and, on a larger scale, Yu Darvish, will likely outweigh fears of Tanaka becoming the next Daisuke Matsuzaka or Kei Igawa.

When it comes time for posting fees and free agent contracts, Tanaka is likely to receive less than Yu Darvish‘s total package, but, considering the dearth of free agent arms outside of Matt Garza, could be worth a total deal around what Anibal Sanchez received last offseason.

Of course, the nature of posting fees and the guessing game around which team will win the rights to offer Tanaka a deal will be just as intriguing as the actual contract he garners.

Outside of the Yankees, reports have surfaced about interest from the Giants (via CSN Bay Area), Rangers (via Baseball America’s report cited earlier), Red Sox and A’s (via the Boston Globe). With a pitching staff currently posting an ERA worse than anyone outside Houston and the sting of finishing second in the Darvish derby still hurting, Toronto could be a viable entrant into the mix as well.

There you have it, Yankees fans.

Tanaka is a potential No. 2 starter, likely on his way to America, in the midst of a 19-0 season, possessing a devastating splitter and about to be perused by big and small market teams.

If Yankees general manager Brian Cashman needs to fill three rotation holes in one winter, there’s a decent chance that Tanaka will become a household name in New York.

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Will the Tigers Pull off 2013 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Sweep?

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are a month away from postseason baseball, an excellent bet to repeat as American League champions and a marquee attraction for Major League Baseball’s broadcasting plan down the stretch of the season.

Part of that allure: Star power.

From Justin Verlander to Prince Fielder to Torii Hunter, the current version of the Detroit Tigers are one of the most recognizable groups in recent memory.

When the 2013 season awards are rolled out in early November, they might add some hardware, along with a possible World Series title, to their showcase.

For the first time in the history of the sport, a team could house the league MVP, Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year. Before you scoff at the notion of the trifecta, consider the claims to the awards by Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer and Jose Iglesias, respectively.

First, of course, resides Miguel Cabrera atop the sport and the American League. While a very, very good argument can be made that Mike Trout is baseball’s best all-around player, Cabrera is a virtual lock for the league MVP.

Despite the unlikelihood of a Triple Crown repeat, Cabrera has been significantly better in 2013 than 2012. His OPS, OPS-plus, home run, RBI, and strikeout-to-walk numbers are all either superior or in line to surpass the MVP campaign of 2012. Despite the greatness of Mike Trout, it’s hard to imagine the same writers who voted Cabrera last season having a change of heart when he’s improved.

Furthermore, the notion of giving the award to a player on a winning team fits Cabrera again. While Mike Trout’s team is headed for another season without October baseball, Cabrera’s Tigers are on the path to the postseason.

On the mound, Scherzer has surpassed 2011 MVP/Cy Young winner Justin Verlander as the current ace of Jim Leyland’s staff. While his 19-1 record may hearken back to old-school Cy Young voting and archaic thinking, his peripheral numbers, or, in other words, the numbers that actually matter when valuing individual players, work in his favor as well.

With apologies to Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, the AL Cy Young battle looks to be a two-horse battle between Seattle‘s Felix Hernandez and Scherzer.

If Scherzer‘s gaudy win total (19 to 12) was all that separated him from the former Cy Young winner, the possibility of all three awards in the Motor City would be far-fetched. A quick look at the numbers shows a very close battle, with Detroit’s star earning the upper hand.

While Felix now leads in Fangraphs‘ WAR (5.8-5.4) and innings pitched (194.1-183.1), Scherzer is sporting a lower ERA (2.90-3.01) and a higher K/9 rate (9.87-9.26).

With Scherzer two starts behind (29-27), pitching Tuesday and Hernandez leaving Monday’s start with back cramps, according to MLB.com, there’s an excellent chance that Hernandez’s lead in total WAR and innings thrown won’t be there by the end of September.

Although wins and losses aren’t the deciding factor in Cy Young voting any longer, it’s hard to believe the voters won’t side with Scherzer if he leads or is tied in WAR, innings, ERA and K/9 along with a seven win advantage on their personal ledgers.

Lastly, the American League Rookie of the Year race is, well, dull.

Using Fangraphs‘ WAR, the top five this season pale in comparison to their famous National League counterparts: Cleveland‘s Yan Gomes, Kansas City‘s David Lough, Iglesias, Seattle’s Danny Farquhar and Tampa Bay‘s Wil Myers.

Meanwhile, the NL features this top five: Miami’s Jose Fernandez, Los Angeles’ Yasiel Puig, Colorado‘s Nolan Arenado, New York’s Juan Lagares and Los Angeles’ Hyun-jin Ryu.

When the Tigers traded for Igesias in July, they were proactively filling a hole left by the impending Jhonny Peralta suspension. Now, through the merits of outstanding defense, an above-average OPS-plus and a lackluster rookie class, they might have the American League Rookie of the Year on their hands.

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are on the path to becoming the most decorated team in baseball history.

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7 Reasons to Keep Watching the New York Mets with an Eye on 2014

As the New York Mets embark on the final month of the 2013 season, a few things are quite clear: This year will likely mark the fifth straight losing campaign in Flushing, long-term positions aren’t filled across the diamond, and, with Matt Harvey’s 2014 in jeopardy, thoughts of competing next year have been shelved.

While it feels like more doom and gloom in Queens, NY, there are reasons to watch this baseball team in September.

No, I won’t advise anyone on how to spend their money, especially in the aftermath of the Marlon Byrd t-shirt night fiasco, but, the Mets still should be appointment viewing for television or radio fans of New York’s National League baseball team.

Why?

Let’s dive into seven important variables that require September attention.

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How Xander Bogaerts Compares to Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar

Red Sox rookie Xander Bogaerts made his Major League debut last week during a road trip, signalling his arrival as the latest impact infield prospect to arrive in recent years.

If the 20-year-old can live up to the hype placed upon him as Baseball America‘s No. 8 prospect heading into the season, Boston may have added a future star to their lineup in the midst of a pennant race.

As the pennant chase wages on, expect Bogaerts potential and impact to be weighed against two other young, future All-Star infielders starting for fellow American League contenders: Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and Jurickson Profar of the Texas Rangers.

A quick look at the American League playoff picture allows the mind to imagine a scenario where the three phenoms could cross paths during October baseball, potentially changing the fate of their respective franchise in 2013.

Before we get there, let’s break down how Bogaerts compares with Machado and Profar.

First and foremost, all three arrived in the big leagues as top 15 prospects in the game, according to Baseball America. Assigning higher value or potential to one or two over another is guess work.

If all three play to the potential they’ve shown thus far in their short time in professional baseball, future All-Star rosters will feature their names.

As of this moment, both Machado and Profar have one major thing over Bogaerts: experience.

Machado and Profar showed a readiness, combined with a need from their lineups, that got them called up before the age of 20. Historically, hitters who arrive in the big leagues that young turn out to be very, very good.

One or two years of extra seasoning may not seem like much, but it can represent a major difference between good and great young players.

In October, Bogaerts turns 21. He can turn out to be a superstar, but the one year difference between his call-up and that of Machado and Profar shouldn’t be ignored.

Minor league statistics don’t necessarily paint a clear and succinct picture of how players will do during their big league careers, but it’s worth noting that Bogaerts numbers did exceed both Profar and Machado‘s during their respective trysts in minor league parks.

Taking into account that each league and minor league park can inflate or deflate numbers, here are following career minor league OPS marks for the three infielders:

Boegarts: .862
Profar: .816
Machado: .776

Of course, thus far, Machado has been the AL All-Star, started every day for his contending team and out slugged Profar in the big leagues.

Walk-to-strikeout ratio, one of my favorite ways to measure the maturity of young hitters, was paced by Profar among this trio:

Profar: 180/212
Machado: 96/146
Bogaerts: 162/309

Moving forward, plate discipline and power should continue to develop for all three. It’s defense that has Bogaerts slightly below both Machado and Profar when discussing all-around talent.

Machado didn’t just seamlessly move from shortstop to third base to start his big league career last summer, he did it an elite level. In a flash, he helped transform the Baltimore defense on their way to an improbable postseason berth.

Profar, although still without a steady position, is able to garner enough regular at-bats for the Rangers, due largely to his ability to play different positions on the fly. From shortstop to third base to left field to second base, the 20-year-old super-utility man has become a weapon for Rangers manager Ron Washington.

With Bogaerts, it’s his bat that will make him a star. That being said, his defense has improved enough to where shortstop can be a viable position for him until he outgrows it.

When reading reports from Baseball America about his bat, size and defensive progress, memories of a young Hanley Ramirez come to mind.

In June, this is what BA had to say about Bogaerts‘ improving defense:

“His defense has improved to the point where he could spend the early part of his career at shortstop rather than having to move to third base immediately, although as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame it might not be long before he outgrows the position.”

Three future All-Star infielders are manning important positions down the stretch for their teams in 2013.

If Baltimore decides to move Machado back to third base, Profar hits enough to unseat Elvis Andrus at shortstop in Texas and scouts are right about Bogaerts ability to play shortstop, the American League might have stumbled into this generation’s versions of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra.

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Why Matt Harvey Won’t Be Baseball’s Next Mark Prior-Like Sob Story

The Matt Harvey news out of Queens, N.Y., on Monday was a blow to the Mets, game of baseball and the idea of trying to keep young pitchers healthy.

As the franchise weighs the decision on whether or not to put their ace under the knife for Tommy John surgery or rehab, the future of Harvey’s right elbow is in doubt. With it, so go the hopes of a franchise and fanbase yearning for meaningful games.

Over the next few months, expect Harvey’s name to be linked to every former pitcher with an ulnar collateral ligament tear and past Tommy John recipient. For a pitcher that electrified the game of baseball as much as the 24-year-old Mets right-hander did this season, the interest around his recovery will be astounding.

Heading toward their fifth consecutive losing campaign, 2014, led by Harvey’s right arm, was supposed to be the tipping point for the Mets to jump back into contention. With millions coming off the books, a bevy of free-agent outfielders, and pitching depth in the farm system to facilitate a major trade or two, the Matt Harvey-David Wright All-Star duo was set to be enhanced by a group of reinforcements.

Now, the team is possibly staring at 2014 without their ace. Until he returns and stays healthy, nothing will be the same, including projecting the future.

Arms, injuries and re-injuries are very, very hard to predict, but for the Mets, Monday’s announcement represented the best-case scenario of a very difficult situation. By going down now, if Tommy John surgery is decided upon and conducted soon, Harvey could be back as soon as next August.

Of course, that scenario would make him Stephen Strasburg 2.0. For Mets fans who want their ace to be better than the star in Washington, they’ll have to settle for Harvey following the blueprint for success set forth by the Nationals when Strasburg went down.

Due to the high success rate and meticulous planning by organizations over recent years when dealing with Tommy John and elbow issues, Harvey is a good bet to return to form and not profile as the next Mark Prior.

Tommy John surgery, which Harvey is almost certainly slated for when the inflammation in his forearm subsides, has become so prevalent among great pitchers in the game that all past Tommy John recipients aren’t widely known or remembered.

Luckily, FOX Sports put together a list of the success stories. If Harvey can follow in the footsteps of John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, Francisco Liriano, Tim Hudson and A.J. Burnett, the New York Mets will be very, very happy.

In 2003, Prior was Harvey before Harvey (and Strasburg before Strasburg), taking baseball by storm with a dominant season. In 211.1 innings, Prior struck out 10.4 per nine innings, posted a 1.10 WHIP, had an adjusted ERA of 179-plus and featured a 4.90 SO/BB ratio. He was worth 7.4 Wins Above Replacement (via Baseball-Reference) for the playoff bound Chicago Cubs.

By comparison, Harvey’s 2013: 178.1 IP, 9.6 K/9, 0.93 WHIP, 159 ERA-plus, 6.16 SO/BB. The National League All-Star Game starter has been worth 5.6 WAR (via Baseball-Reference) for the Mets.

If healthy and allowed to finish the season without innings restrictions, it’s likely that Prior and Harvey’s seasons would have stood side-by-side as two of the biggest breakout performances in decades.

Of course, Prior, unlike Strasburg years later, never recovered fully from his arm issues. By 2006, just three years after his magical season, the Cubs phenom pitched to a 7.21 ERA in 43.2 forgettable innings.

The Mets organization shouldn’t be trusted, especially in light of Monday’s astounding lack of unanimity when answering questions about Harvey’s forearm soreness this season. But they will be careful because Harvey is the best hope for the franchise to rebound and win big.

Much like how the Nationals handled Strasburg with kid gloves in his first full season back, the Mets can ease Harvey up to his full potential. If it takes until 2016 for New York to see the full and complete arsenal and campaign from Harvey, so be it.

The difference in talent between Mark Prior and Matt Harvey was small, but the road to recovery and path back to success should be wide.

If the Mets take the cautious route, they aren’t guaranteed anything, but will put themselves in a more favorable position to make Matt Harvey the next Stephen Strasburg, not version 2.0 of a Mark Prior sob story.

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