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How Team-Friendly Dustin Pedroia Contract Affects Red Sox for 2014 and Beyond

The announcement, confirmed by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, of a new, seven-year, $100 million contract extension between Dustin Pedroia and the Boston Red Sox is a boon for both parties, giving Pedroia a lucrative, long-term extension while supplying the organization with cost certainty moving forward.

From Pedroia‘s perspective, the contract is significant, allowing the franchise player to remain in Boston well into the twilight of his career. By eliminating the 2014 and 2015 options from his contract, the 29-year-old will enter his early 30s without the weight of contract years or year-to-year performance hovering over his game.

Over the course of baseball history, second basemen, most recently Chase Utley, Roberto Alomar and Jose Vidro, have faded when hitting their early 30s. If that happens to Pedroia, his long-term earning potential can’t take a hit with a new, guaranteed contract.

While Pedroia will benefit greatly, the Red Sox front office, assuming healthy and solid production from Pedroia during the deal, will come across as the real winner here.

The ability to lock up a player like Pedroia, a former MVP worth at least four wins per season during every 140-plus-game season of his career, for $14.3 million annually is a win-win deal, but it looks even better when taking a look at the future payroll commitment currently allotted in Boston.

Or, in other words, the lack of payroll commitment moving forward.

Pedroia‘s new deal gives the team payroll flexibility next winter, potentially allowing the front office to keep free-agent outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury or first baseman Mike Napoli.

More importantly, the cost certainty of Pedroia‘s deal, as opposed to option years and free agency for the franchise cornerstone, will give Boston the ability to reach for true star power in future free-agent classes.

Looking years into free-agent classes can be a fruitless exercise, but for the sake of fun, here are some names that may hit the open market after the 2014 or 2015 seasons: Clayton Kershaw (post-2014), Miguel Cabrera, Jason Heyward, Aroldis Chapman, Chris Davis, David Price, Matt Wieters and Mat Latos (post-2015).

Heading into the 2016 season, with the assumption of Clay Buchholz‘s $13 million option being exercised, Boston has only $27.3 million committed to two players: Buchholz and Pedroia. If all goes to plan, two All-Star-level contributors will be playing in Fenway Park for way under market value.

Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington cleared hundreds of millions of dollars off the books last August in a roster purge with the Los Angeles Dodgers. That move set the stage for the low-risk, high-reward offseason of 2012-13, vaulting the Red Sox to the top of the AL East standings.

It also set the franchise up to reward Pedroia and keep maximum flexibility moving forward.

The 2013 Red Sox are a good team because of smart, efficient payroll maneuvers. By re-signing Pedroia now, months before Robinson Cano rewrites the market for star second basemen, Boston is setting itself up to be major free-agent players again very soon.


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Banning Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun from MLB Forever Is Nothing but a Pipe Dream

According to a tweet from ESPN sports business reporter Darren Rovell, Major League Baseball may be preparing to attempt to ban Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun from baseball for life.

They would need to prove that each violation, from association with Biogenesis to past transgressions to lack of cooperation in the current investigation, is a separate violation of the sport’s rules against performance-enhancing drugs.

While there will undoubtedly be throngs of fans who are in full support of the bold strategy, it’s far-fetched at best. Until Braun and/or Rodriguez fail a drug test and, of course, that drug test is upheld after an appeal, neither has that distinction on their ledger.

Rodriguez, during his admission to performance-enhancing drug use in a 2009 press conference, admitted to failing a test during the 2003 survey testing. Of course, that test was supposed to be used for survey purposes and nothing more. In a way, it worked. Enough players, including Rodriguez, tested positive, forcing baseball’s hand in 2004 to put in true testing with penalties.

Despite his guilt in the public eye, Rodriguez has never failed a test that counted.

Technicalities asides, neither has the 2011 NL MVP. While his testosterone levels were detected at a high level during a 2011 test, the results were not held up by an arbitrator after a tampering appeal was conducted.

Over the years, the Major League Baseball Players Association has worked with baseball to rid the sport of cheating and place penalties upon their members who break the drug agreement, but it must be in compliance with the rules and regulations.

Simply put, players are not required to answer questions or meet with the commissioner’s office about scandals or legal matters. In most cases, as with Rodriguez and Braun here, it’s in the best interest of the player to meet but not speak or answer most questions due to legal and contractual ramifications.

Suspending either A-Rod or Braun for life is almost too unbelievable to fathom, especially when their worst transgressions seems to stem from skirting the testing system, rather than factual evidence of failed tests.

That hasn’t stopped Bill Madden, an award-winning columnist for the New York Daily News, from purporting that Rodriguez will never play an inning of baseball for the Yankees again. 

Considering his rehab assignment will be finished by the end of the month, Madden either has sources telling him this inside baseball or he’s gone mad. Assuming it’s the former, those within the offices of the Yankees or baseball could believe this process will commence.

The attempt to purport lifetime bans will likely be shot down quickly, but it does profile as an “all-in” route for the sport, allowing the bargaining process to entice either superstar to negotiate down to a more manageable 50- or 100-game suspension.

In baseball or life, the punishment must fit the crime. Unfortunately for baseball, the crime here is subjective and conjecture, based on the testimony of a quack doctor from a strip mall in Miami. Until baseball can document multiple failed drug tests from Rodriguez or Braun, the idea of a lifetime suspension is nothing but a Bud Selig pipe dream.

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Breaking Down Alfonso Soriano’s Trade Market Now That He Wants Out

According to a report from Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com, Chicago Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano is willing to waive his no-trade clause to join a team that wants his power bat, so expect the rumor mill to include the 37-year-old slugger’s name for the majority of July.

While rumors about Soriano’s departure from Chicago are a yearly endeavor, 2013 may be different than past years. With just one year remaining on his long-term contract, Soriano becomes cheaper by the day to acquire. In fact, with less than half of his 2013 salary of $18 million remaining, along with another $18 million coming his way in 2014, Soriano becomes more movable by the inning.

At this point, it’s not crazy to assume Chicago eating almost every dollar of his salary to receive back a realistic prospect haul for a player of Soriano’s caliber.

While Soriano is producing predictably poor plate discipline numbers (.289 OBP, 77/10 K/BB), his power (13 HR, .459 SLG) can help many contending teams in need of a right-handed bat.

If a trade is to finally commence, landing Soriano on a contender and away from the rebuilding Cubs, here are the teams that likely will be most interested.

San Francisco Giants

Any team that brings in Jeff Francouer for offense is in need of a serious boost of run-scoring ability. Due to a combination of poor play and injuries, San Fran has received just a .683 OPS from their collective group of left fielders this season, good for the fifth-worst mark among the positional groups in the sport.

As their pitching staff suffers through an uncharacteristically down year, smart money has them pursuing an arm to solidify the staff, but adding a bat like Soriano could ease the pressure off Buster Posey and slightly soften the blow if Hunter Pence departs as a free agent in the offseason.

Baltimore Orioles

After acquiring Scott Feldman from Chicago last week, it would seem to reason that Baltimore has upgraded themselves enough to not warrant another trade conversation with the Cubs, especially on the offensive side.

With Manny Machado and Chris Davis enjoying breakout seasons, the Orioles boast one of the best offenses in baseball, but if there’s one spot in the lineup that can be improved, it lies at designated hitter.

If Brian Roberts’ return is a boon, count the Orioles out of any discussion of designated hitter types, but if he falters or finds himself back on the DL, adding Soriano on the cheap would give Baltimore the deepest, most fearsome lineup the AL has seen in years.

New York Yankees

With an organizational mandate to fall below the $189 million tax in 2014, taking on salary, especially for the spot Vernon Wells was traded for to fill in 2013 and 2014, would seem to be out of character for the New York Yankees.

Yet, if any team knows the strengths and weaknesses of Soriano’s game, it would be the organization and general manager who saw him rise through the farm system. The former Yankee could return to give the team the boost, especially against left-handed pitching, that they’ve lacked all season.

While it would seem that there’s little room for a player like Soriano if Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson return to fulfill the team needs for right-handed pop, designated hitter at-bats and left field play, respectively, a set back from one or more of the group isn’t just possible, it’s actually likely.

Odds are, Soriano plays out the string once again in Chicago, but if the marriage is finally over, multiple teams will be interested.

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7 MLB Records Most Likely to Be Broken in Second Half

As the 2013 Major League Baseball season barrels towards toward the All-Star break, the second half of the season lurks, promising to provide intense pennant chases, blockbuster trades and one of the most unpredictable September finishes in recent memory.

Along the course of every MLB campaign, first-half stars ignite record-chasing finishes. Naturally, fans flock to projected statistics around the halfway point of every season, signalling a slew of players capable of tearing the record book apart with repeat performances down the stretch.

In the late ’90s and early 2000s, that formula seemed to work, especially when it came to the rewriting of the home-run record on a yearly basis.

Of course, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa no longer suit up as active players, so the single-season home-run record remains safe at 73.

The following seven records are in danger, however.

Here is a list of single-season records most likely to fall in the second half of the 2013 season.

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What Yankees’ Big Drop in 2013 Attendance, TV Ratings Means for the Franchise

According to Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra, citing a report from The New York Times, the New York Yankees are struggling off the field almost as dearly as they are on it.

While the team is in the midst of an uphill climb to qualify for their yearly spot in October, fewer and fewer fans in New York seem to be paying attention. With empty seats littering the broadcast on the YES Network camera most nights, this would seemingly ignite plenty of discussion in New York, but with television ratings down, fewer are watching the games to see the empty seats.

Attendance issues are no stranger to the Yankees. While it’s foolish to cry poverty for the richest team in professional sports, it’s clear the the days of sold-out stadiums are gone. In fact, last October, New York had noticeably empty sections during the American League Division Series games at home.

The list of theories on why fewer people are watching the Yankees can rage on forever. Before diving into what this means for the franchise, here are some popular reasons why the team isn’t pushing needle: Ticket prices, lack of “stars” on the current roster, front-running fans reacting to a mediocre product and the success of NBA and NHL teams occupying the attention of the city.

To put it bluntly, all have contributed to some degree to the drop in viewership and ticket sales.

Ticket prices are exceedingly high, especially in the new Yankee Stadium. On the team website, four tickets to Friday evening’s game, in section 406 (upper deck, near the foul pole) would run in excess of $111.00. That’s before online fees, printing costs and convenience charges. If you factor in transportation and ballpark food, a family of four would need close to $300 to enjoy a night out at the park.

As Randy Levine noted in The New York Times, the Yankees have built a reputation of stars and fan recognition to their players. While a winning team will always produce attendance and interest, fans aren’t going to drop the kind of money noted above to see a team littered with the Jayson Nix’s of the world.

When A-Rod and Jeter return, expect at least the ratings to boost because those players are recognizable and expected to perform well after years of accolades.

Using the term “frontrunner” has almost become a sports writing slur, but it’s true and rooted in almost every fan base. Fans show up when a team is a contender, but don’t when they struggle. If that makes the Yankees fan base, both at the park and in front of their televisions, frontrunners, it’s time to either accept the label or use a new word.

Recently, unlike in many of the years (2002-2009) where Yankee attendance and YES Network ratings were through the roof, the NBA and NHL teams in New York created a buzz by playing into the postseason.

In most years, the only act in town after the middle of April was baseball. With the struggles of the New York Mets since 2009, the only competitive baseball team resided in the Bronx. This spring, the Nets, Knicks and Rangers all played into May, giving New York fans another option for their viewing pleasure.

While the Yankees business model is dependent on being the biggest and best on a year-to-year basis, the rules of the sport and their ownership model has conspired to change the equation, thus changing the game around baseball.

Parity now rules the sport, especially in the ultra competitive AL East. With a farm system lacking high-end talent, the Yankees’ new allergy to long-term contracts, an aging, mediocre team and impact free agents less likely to actually hit the open market, this narrative may not change much in the upcoming years.

It’s foolish to believe the Yankees will ever become a team that can’t draw or compete; they enjoy too many resources that will keep them in contention and in New York’s pulse, but times have changed.

The future of the franchise may not be perched atop the sports landscape, hovering over the peasants below.

As the team, sport, rules and interests of New York fans transition, the Yankees will still be near the top of attendance and ratings figures, but no longer alone up there.

New York is becoming just another rich team, transitioning away from being one of the only superpowers in sports.

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Are the Star-Laden Toronto Blue Jays Finally Ready to Make a Hard Playoff Push?

As baseball fans awoke to the MLB standings on Sunday, May 5, the Toronto Blue Jays, after an offseason of spending, roster improvements and high expectations, sat at 10-21, last place in the American League East, riddled with injuries and staring at a 6-12 record in front of their home fans.

A day earlier, R.A. Dickey, expected to be the most impactful of the offseason additions, surrendered seven earned runs in six innings of miserable pitching against the light-hitting Seattle Mariners.

If it’s possible to hit rock bottom in early May, the Blue Jays did it.

Since that moment, the AL East standings have been close, but one team has stood above the rest:

Toronto: 23-15
Baltimore: 22-18
Tampa Bay: 20-17
Boston: 22-19
New York: 20-20

Not only has Toronto turned the corner, but the rest of the even, muddled AL East has looked exactly how they appeared in spring training: Good, but not great, capable of fleeting moment of big success, but also showing vital weaknesses to hold back any 95-plus win team from emerging.

In other words, the division may house five good teams, but not one great one.

As the Blue Jays have found themselves, watched their pitching staff turn a corner and look forward to the health and returns of expected contributors, the American League should heed warning: Here come the Blue Jays.

At 33-36, it would be foolish for Toronto fans to plan for October baseball. At this point, the team still resides in last place, owns a negative run differential, and, according to ESPN’s playoff odds, have just a 13.9 percent chance to qualify for the postseason. As a point of reference, not one of the last place teams across baseball on this date last season qualified for October baseball.

With logic and context disclosed, AL East foes and future Blue Jays opponents should respect the warning shots being fired lately by baseball’s hottest team.

Over the last ten games, Toronto is 8-2, including a six-game winning streak heading into play on Tuesday. That stretch includes a sweep in Texas last weekend, a shutout victory over the Rockies on Monday evening and incredible pitching by a staff that looks markedly different than they did earlier this year.

Led by Josh Johnson (19.1 IP, 20 K, 1.86 ERA since coming off the DL on 6/4) and R.A. Dickey (two or less runs allowed in five of eight starts since the May 4 outing against Seattle), the staff has posted a 2.07 ERA. The recent signing of Chien-Ming Wang has been prescient, giving Toronto 14.1 decent innings, along with two victories, last week. Within a few weeks, the flame-throwing Brandon Morrow could return, looking to get back on the track to stardom he boarded in 2012.

Offensively, the team has survived despite the devastating loss of Jose Reyes. If he can return before the All-Star break, manager John Gibbons could continue to bat Jose Bautista in the two-hole, giving the Blue Jays one of the most dangerous and unique top of the order combinations in the sport.

If Adam Lind can continue his resurgent season (161 OPS-plus after back-to-back-to-back seasons of an under-100, below average mark), the offense, along with Edwin Encarnacion, Melky Cabrera, healing Brett Lawrie and powerful, yet free-swinging Colby Rasmus and J.P. Arencibia, the Toronto offense might score more second half runs than any team in the division.

Toronto isn’t a great team, and will probably fall short of the 90 wins some pegged them for prior to the season and continue to face an uphill climb out of the hole they dug themselves. But don’t mistake that for a team that won’t contend.

As the Blue Jays surge, Boston is facing regression from Jon Lester and injury to Clay Buchholz, Baltimore is struggling to find consistent and average starting pitching, Tampa is still without the David Price or Fernando Rodney of 2012 and New York is trotting out one of the worst offenses in the American League, if not all of the sport.

Over the last 44 days, the Blue Jays have been the best team in the division. If they can repeat that feat over the next, say, 50 days, then they’ll be in a position to command the division down the stretch.

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How Yankees’ Path Would’ve Changed If They Chose Don Mattingly Over Joe Girardi

Replacing the legendary Joe Torre was going to be an arduous task for the leaders of the Yankees organization before they chose to interview one of the most famous and beloved players in their franchise’s history.

By selecting Joe Girardi over Don Mattingly (along with the unheralded Tony Pena), the Yankees made a decision that would have ramifications across the entire landscape of the sport.

With Don Mattingly making his first appearance in the Bronx since being passed over for the job prior to the 2008 season, his Los Angeles Dodgers, although continuing to scuffle in the NL West, will take center stage for the next two nights in New York.

Considering New York’s success under Girardi, the current state of the Dodgers and how each former Yankee player has grown in their respective jobs, the Yankees, led by the recommendation of general manager Brian Cashman, made the right decision when choosing Girardi.

While Girardi‘s experience as the manager of the 2006 Florida Marlins ultimately gave him the leg up in the managerial competition, it’s not hard to imagine more going into the decision, including the analytical and prepared nature Girardi brings to the managerial seat, something that was probably quite evident during his interview with the Yankee brass.

In the five-plus seasons since taking the helm, Girardi has guided the Yankees to the postseason four times, including three trips to the American League Championship Series and a World Series title in 2009.

Out west, Mattingly hasn’t had close to the same success, but has also been saddled with a flawed roster.

For years, baseball writers and analysts have tried to quantify the differences between good, great and average skippers, but it’s a very, very hard task. Obviously, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox were great managers, but separating the good from average is difficult.

Factoring in the roster, managing in New York, expectations from the jump and his cultural icon status with the Yankees fan base, New York’s path would have likely been far less successful under Mattingly than it has been under Girardi.

Outside of the analytical perception that Girardi brings to the table, his willingness to adjust after a rigid and difficult opening season made him the manager he is today.

The 2008 Yankees weren’t a very talented team, especially in the pitching department. Mattingly, Girardi or Torre would have likely missed the postseason, but it was Girardi who actually sat in the dugout for the distinction.

While many realized the pitching issues at the time, Girardi‘s rigid and stern nature seemed to wear on the clubhouse, including the young, enigmatic Robinson Cano.

After the season, Girardi adapted, becoming more open with the media and his players. When mixed with his advanced knowledge of the game, it turned him into an excellent manager.

Mattingly‘s personality is different, but an adjustment would have been expected during the early part of his tenure. It’s hard to imagine Donnie Baseball excelling in the same fashion.

Aside from baseball acumen, experience and the willingness to adjust, the biggest reason the Girardi Era is more successful than the Mattingly experience would have been circles back to the support of Brian Cashman.

Although the Yankees general manager has been in the organization since taking an internship two decades ago, he had never hired a manager prior to the Torre aftermath. When Cashman was promoted to the general manager seat prior to the 1998 season, Torre was entrenched as a star in the dugout.

From the jump of the interview process, Cashman seemed to favor Girardi. If ownership overruled him to select Mattingly, job security could have become a real issue when struggles arose. Instead, Girardi has been virtually bulletproof due to the partnership he and Cashman have forged.

As the years go on, Mattingly may grow into the job, or, if things in Los Angeles deteriorate further, his next job. Perhaps he’ll turn into a really good and successful manager down the line.

Right now, Girardi has already achieved those accolades.

The decision was correct in 2007. If Mattingly was the selection, the state of the Yankees would have a far different look today.

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2013 MLB Rookie of the Year Stock Watch, Week 11

Due to a combination of scouting, player development, PEDs largely out of the game and young, cost-controlled players representing a more efficient route to winning than their tenured, highly paid counterparts, youth continues to take over the sport.

Last week, we profiled the six leading candidates, along with some dark-horse candidates, who will emerge as the season progresses for the respective Rookie of the Year awards. Little has changed in seven calender days, so here are a few more stock-watch candidates to add to the list.

Spoiler: All stocks are up within this under-the-radar group.

If one or more of these candidates stays on the radar all summer long, don’t be surprised, folks.


National League

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 13 GS, 85.1 IP, 75 K, 25 BB, 2.85 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.6 WAR

Watching Ryu dominate National League hitters has been one of the few bright spots of the the Dodgers’ season, but unlike his rookie pitching counterpart, Shelby Miller, the Los Angeles lefty doesn’t blow top-notch offerings by most batters.

Instead, the 26-year-old Korean product fools hitters with a five-pitch arsenal. It’s unpredictability that has sustained Ryu‘s early season success as he’s started to see the same lineups on a regular basis.

The five Ryu offerings—four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, curveball and changeup—all have the ability to get hitters out, in any count.

What he lacks in raw ability is counteracted by the ability to throw so many pitches for strikes at any point in the count.

 

Anthony Rendon, 2B, Washington Nationals: .308/.390/.404, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R, 121 OPS+

The counting stats may not overwhelm, but expect Rendon to continue to add to his numbers now that he’s back in the big leagues playing full-time and thriving under the specter of playing a new position.

Due to injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and ineffectiveness at second base, Washington has asked Rendon, who barely has any experience on the professional level as a second baseman, to man the position for the foreseeable future.

Since being recalled from the minors last week, the sixth pick of the 2011 draft hasn’t disappointed, hitting a robust .370 and adding some length to the bottom of the Washington lineup.

His long-term position may still be third base, but if he’s going to hit this well and make game-changing plays in the field, Davey Johnson will pencil his name into the lineup every day for the Nationals. 

 

American League

Preston Claiborne, RHP, New York Yankees: 16 G, 21 IP, 17 K, 1 BB, 0.86 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 96.2 LOB%

It’s hard to imagine a young, talented Yankee star sliding under the radar, but that’s exactly the path that Preston Claiborne, a low-round draft pick, has taken from his path to the majors to his dominance out of the bullpen this season.

While hardly pitching in true high-leverage situations, Claiborne’s start is still remarkable.

The 17-1 K-BB ratio has opened eyes within the Yankees organization, and the idea of Claiborne surpassing some more heralded members of the bullpen—think Joba Chamberlain—this summer isn’t out of the question.

While the FIP and strikeout rate suggest regression to the mean is coming, the ability to strand runners at over a 96 percent clip is outstanding. 

 

Yan Gomes, C/1B, Cleveland Indians: .271/.287/.542, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 26 R, 128 OPS+

Heading into the 2013 season, the list of names of vital offensive players to the success or failure of the Cleveland Indians would have read something like this:

1. Carlos Santana

2. Nick Swisher

3. Michael Bourn

4. Jason Kipnis

5. Mark Reynolds

6 Michael Brantley

43. Yan Gomes

Despite relatively little expected performance or importance, Yan Gomes has provided big hits and power for manager Terry Francona.

While he’s nearly allergic to working a walk, his power and versatility make him an important piece to the Indians’ offensive puzzle moving forward this summer. 

 

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Michael Pineda: Return Could Impact the Yankees’ Trade Deadline Strategy

As Sports Illustrated boasted on the cover of their 2003 Major League Baseball preview issue, you can’t have too much pitching.

A full decade later, emboldened by the success of those American League championship seasons, the Yankees are taking the same approach to their current roster.

If Michael Pineda continues his rehab path to the Bronx, the franchise will be staring at a surplus of young, cost-controlled starting pitching candidates like David Phelps and Ivan Nova.

While either, especially the recently effective David Phelps, could slide into rotations around the sport or see time as the long-man out of the Yankees bullpen, there could be teams asking for them in potential moves at the July 31 deadline.

Both have value, but the return of Michael Pineda could open up a different can of worms in New York.

As the offense, especially Vernon Wells, continues to stumble along, fans will clamor for Brian Cashman to make a move for a bat.

If New York heeds that advice, an impending free agent could be a major trade chip.

Phil Hughes, set to hit the open market at the end of the 2013 season, has the ability, stuff and pedigree to help many contending teams in the sport right now.

He’s also not likely to be back in New York in 2014.

That has much, much more to do with the organization’s goal of positioning themselves under the $189 million luxury tax threshold and resigning Robinson Cano and/or Curtis Granderson than it does with the organization’s view of Hughes’ ability.

The fan base may downgrade him as “only” a fourth starter. It sometimes feels as if he’s viewed out of tinted glasses because he didn’t live up to the hype of a future ace: a label placed upon him as he rose through the Yankee farm system.

As his detractors will be quick to remind you, Hughes is consistently inconsistent and a fly-ball pitcher in a home run hitter’s haven. While seven of his last 10 starts have yielded two or less runs allowed, the other three saw five, six, and seven runs cross the plate, respectively.

Pineda, a possible Hughes replacement, is now viewed through optimistic eyes and in comparison to what he was in 2011: Matt Harvey before Matt Harvey.

In reality, the Yankees need help offensively, but Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and returns of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez can probably suffice.

If anything, moving Ivan Nova or Joba Chamberlain (also a free agent at years end and in a bullpen that has even more depth than the rotation) could be enough to secure another complimentary hitter.

Unless Brian Cashman is blown away with an offer that includes parting with Hughes, it’s hard to imagine moving the best combination of youth and durability on his current staff.

It’s easy to envision Pineda sliding into Hughes’ role and excelling, leaving the 26-year-old as an expendable resource, but rarely are things that simple.

Injuries or regression from CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte or Hiroki Kuroda could make both Hughes and Pineda vital to the stretch run in 2013.

Come August and September, the most efficient route for New York to take back October is sending out a rotation of Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, and Pineda.

Any surplus of talent will lead to speculation of major roster maneuvers, but don’t expect Brian Cashman to subtract from New York’s biggest strength to fix a weakness.

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Making the Case for Selecting Jonathan Gray No. 1 Overall

With less than three days remaining before the 2013 MLB Draft commences in New Jersey, the top prospects in the field, in some order, seem to look like Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel, San Diego 3B Kris Bryant and Oklahoma right-handed pitcher Jonathon Gray.

Of course, despite the proximity to the draft, narratives can change, stocks can fall and red flags can become evident when assessing the potential future of an organization.

That’s why the news coming out of The Oklahoman about Jonathan Gray’s positive test for Adderall, violating an NCAA rule, is a talking point around baseball draft circles.

Continuing a trend of athletes in connection with Adderall, there’s still much to decipher about Gray’s usage, how it’s boosted his performance (if at all) and how it will effect the thought process of the Houston Astros, owners of the top pick in the 2013 Draft.

While any positive drug test should be taken into the equation before handing a prospect millions of dollars, the choice between Bryant, Appel and Gray shouldn’t swing on the recent news.

In fact, Gray should have been atop the Astros draft board weeks ago. Nothing that occurred this week should change that.

When assessing the current state of the Astros franchise, and the future potential Appel and Bryant,  Jonathan Gray is the logical choice for the first name heard on Thursday evening.

Appel, after failing to sign as a Top 10 selection out of Stanford last summer, is back, now completing his senior year and limiting his leverage in negotiations, is projected to be a good major league starter. He’s certainly worthy of the top pick because of his skill, age, durability and consensus about his future in the show.

Yet a “wow” factor is lacking when watching him pitch. He may turn into an excellent pitcher, but the Astros rebuilding process should be focused on developing great, franchise-changing players. Specifically when they’re afforded the right to select anyone in the 2013 class with the top pick.

Bryant, the power-hitting San Diego third baseman is a legitimate future home run hitter in the big leagues. In fact, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, he outhomered most of the country this season in the NCAA.

No, not just players.

“He has out-homered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrel ability give him elite power,” said Callis.

Yet a definitive projection on how great a hitter he can be is lacking. While his power is there, the swing can be long.

At the risk of downplaying the potential of Appel and Bryant, the reports make them feel like the second coming of Jeremy Hellickson and Pedro Alvarez, respectively.

If Houston wants to truly change their franchise, they’ll select the big fireballer from Oklahoma: Jonathan Gray.

Adderall aside, he has the upside of a top-of-the-rotation ace who can anchor a team for years to come.

Playing it safe with the top pick in the draft can have its merits, especially with the new slotting system that allots teams a certain amount to spend annually, but Gray’s junior status shouldn’t dissuade him from being selected.

Appel may be more of a lock, on a faster track to the big leagues and a more polished pitcher. Bryant may be the answer at third base.

But neither can give Houston the answer to what the other teams in the AL West posses: A stud atop their rotation.

With Felix Hernandez in Seattle, Yu Darvish in Texas and Jered Weaver in Los Angeles, the blueprint has been laid out for success in one of baseball’s toughest division.

If Gray’s name is called first on Thursday, it will be the best move yet in the Jeff Luhnow regime in Houston.

 

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