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Should Yankees Fear Top Prospect Gary Sanchez Could Become a Bust?

For the New York Yankees, star power always trumps the success or failure of top prospects. In the case of 21-year-old catcher Gary Sanchez, a difficult start to the 2014 season could be a prelude to another bust emanating from general manager Brian Cashman’s farm system.

According to Nick Peruffo of The Trentonian, the Double-A backstop was held out of the Trenton Thunder lineup for a second straight game for what is believed to be disciplinary reasons. After a private player-manager meeting, skipper Tony Franklin was vague yet telling in his explanation to the media, per Peruffo‘s report.

“It was disciplinary action,” Franklin said. “I needed to take care of that today, to get things clarified and cleared up. I’m not going to tell you what it was, but it was a violation of some of our guidelines and I needed to take care of it. Gary is out of there for a couple of days until we decide he deserves to play again, plain and simple.”

Assuming that Franklin has the blessing of upper management in New York’s organization, Sanchez isn’t making a good impression this season. After four consecutive years of Top 100 rankings on Baseball America‘s annual prospect list, much was expected of him at Double-A this year.

Thus far, a .741 OPS hasn’t been particularity noteworthy. Now compounding the situation is a minor league manager questioning if he deserves to play. Based on the need to develop Sanchez into an impact player or major trade chip, it’s ludicrous to think that the Yankees would halt his development based on a benign infraction.

If Franklin and the organization believed discipline was necessary, it likely was.  

Unfortunately for this player and the Yankees’ recent track record of developing prospects, the potential for Sanchez to turn into a bust is very, very real. As the following chart shows, the Yankees have only drafted six active players that went on to careers of 10-plus WAR in the majors. Of that group, only three—Derek Jeter, Brett Gardner and David Robertson—are part of the current 25-man roster in the Bronx. 

Now, to be fair, Sanchez’s success or failure has little to do with the plights of former farmhands like Phil Coke or Randy Choate. If off-the-field transgressions or lack of preparation hold Sanchez back, it’s unfair to blame the Yankees or the current coaching staff. After yearly reports of future excellence, the prudent approach would be to give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt here and watch the rest of his season unfold.

Furthermore, Sanchez’s production “drop” can easily be traced to his age in relation to the Eastern League. 

Let’s start with Sanchez’s 2014 numbers compared to his recent success in the Yankees system. As a 21-year-old in the Eastern League, Sanchez is roughly 3.6 years younger than the average player in the Double-A league. Upon a call-up to Trenton as a 20-year-old in 2013, Sanchez was nearly four-and-a-half years younger than the average player he was competing against, per Baseball-Reference

While it’s easy to wonder where the .829 OPS, 211 total bases and 18 home runs of 2012 have gone, remember that most of that damage came in the South Atlantic League. Although Sanchez, then 19, was also young for that league, the difference wasn’t as stark as it has been lately. 

As the narrative around Sanchez evolves, keep in mind this important fact: His value to the Yankees may not be as important as it is around the game. 

With Brian McCann in the first year of a five-year, $85 million deal, the starting catching position in New York looks to be secure for years. Complicating matters more: 23-year-old John Ryan Murphy has performed admirably (102 OPS+) as a backup in 2014, leaving little room for even a mature, improved Sanchez to crack New York’s future roster.

As Brendan Kuty of NJ.com explored in May, Sanchez’s best value to the Yankees could be through a trade to bring back an impact starting pitcher this summer.

With any prospect, especially recent Yankee farmhands, it’s easy to associate disciplinary issues or drops in production as a sign of a future bust. In the case of Sanchez, it’s too early to give on a player with this much talent. 

Over the next six weeks, the Yankees likely hope that opposing teams feel the same way.

Agree? Disagree?

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.comFanGraphs and ESPN, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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Predicting the Next Top Prospects to Debut in MLB

For baseball fans, there’s nothing quite like the allure of prospects. As every franchise hopes to stockpile young, cheap talent, fans buy into the idea of homegrown players emerging to become the next once-in-a-generation stars.

Over the past few years, emerging talents like Washington’s Bryce Harper and Los Angeles’ Mike Trout have become the gold standard for minor league standouts with the ability to make a difference at the big league level.

With the 2014 season reaching the second week of June, teams will soon be less reluctant to promote stars too soon, alleviating the fear of rising arbitration costs and lost free-agent years. When the Houston Astros called up George Springer in April and the St. Louis Cardinals summoned Oscar Taveras one month later, the first big prospects of the season arrived.

Now that the door has been broken down, expect at least a handful of big names to arrive at the big league level over the next few months. By the time September rolls around, more than a dozen of baseball’s future stars could be impacting the pennant races.

Here are the next top prospects who will arrive in the major leagues.

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Lonnie Chisenhall’s 3-HR Night Highlights Breakout 2014 for Former Top Prospect

Cleveland Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall isn’t a household name among most baseball fans. After a once-in-a-generation performance to cap off an early-season breakout campaign, that distinction could soon change for the former top prospect.

If you didn’t remember Chisenhall’s name from top-prospect lists in 2010 and 2011, you’ll surely commit his 5-for-5, three-home-run night to memory. Cleveland’s newfound hitting machine drove in nine runs in a rout of the Texas Rangers on Monday evening, continuing his 2014 onslaught of big-league pitching.

After hitting Triple-A arms to the tune of a .390 batting average in 2013, Cleveland has watched its former first-round pick become an American League All-Star candidate. Heading into play on June 9, Chisenhall’s 1.4 fWAR was higher than Seattle‘s Robinson Cano (1.3), the Dodgers‘ Hanley Ramirez (1.3), San Francisco‘s Buster Posey (1.2) and the Yankees‘ Jacoby Ellsbury (1.2).

With a highlight-reel performance in the books, expect Chisenhall’s season value to rise and the gap to narrow between a seemingly unknown star and some of baseball’s richest and most well-known commodities. 

Although causal fans may have been unaware of Chisenhall’s breakout, Indians manager Terry Francona recently spoke about how much he’s meant to Cleveland’s success, per Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group.

“He’s been a big part of just about everything we’ve done this year,” Francona said. “He’s played first. He’s played third. He’s DH’d. He’s hitting lefties. He’s been in the middle, it seems like, of all our rallies. He’s running the bases. He’s been a big shot in the arm for us.”

Suddenly, that shot in the arm has the 33-31 Indians on the heels of the division-leading Tigers. After a dismal April (10-17), it looked like all the success of 2013 was fleeting in Cleveland. 

With expected contributors like Jason Kipnis (.360 SLG), Nick Swisher (.631 OPS), Carlos Santana (.169 AVG) and Danny Salazar (1-4, 5.53 ERA) all suffering through injury or performance issues, few would have been shocked to see the Indians languishing at the bottom of the division through May and June.

Thanks to Chisenhall—along with surprise AL All-Star candidates Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley—the Indians are afloat in a crowded postseason race. Cleveland is now only two games behind Detroit in the AL Central and within 1.5 games of Seattle for the second AL wild-card berth. 

While Chisenhall’s pedigree—high draft pick, Baseball America darling and .821 career minor-league OPS—shouldn’t make this breakout a total surprise, this player showed very little promise across 203 big-league games over the last three seasons.

From 2011-2013, spanning 682 plate appearances—the equivalent of more than one full season—Chisenhall posted a .244/.284/.411 slash line in Cleveland. Over that span, that .694 OPS was worse than luminaries such as Willie Bloomquist, Justin Turner and Nyjer Morgan, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Prior to the 2011 season, Baseball America rated Chisenhall as the No. 25 prospect in all of baseball. At the time, it was easy to envision a high-end contributor rising through Cleveland’s minor-league ranks to Progressive Field.  

While other 2011 top prospects reached the majors and excelled, Chisenhall required more patience from Cleveland’s front office. From Chris Sale to Freddie Freeman to Manny Machado to Mike Trout to Bryce Harper, the list was filled with immediate-impact players.

Reaping the rewards for their willingness to wait, the Indians now have a player once included in the conversation with baseball’s best prospects making a name for himself once again.

Expecting Chisenhall’s MVP-level production to continue is nonsensical, but the Indians may have unearthed a major contributor. In the process of watching a prospect mature, one of 2013’s better teams has arrived as a contender once again.

Agree? Disagree?

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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Who Is to Blame for the Heated David Price vs. David Ortiz, Red Sox Drama?

On Friday night, Fenway Park turned into the Wild West. Scores were settled, barbs were thrown and threats of future retaliation echoed through the night.

In the David Price vs. David Ortiz drama—stemming from Ortiz’s reaction to a home run off Price in the 2013 ALDS—both players are at fault for letting emotions overtake the game.

When Price plunked Ortiz last night, it was a clear directive toward last season’s postseason blast at Fenway Park, regardless of Price’s justification after the game, per Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times

“I’ve got to establish my fastball in,” Price said. “I’ve got six lefties in that lineup. It’s my favorite side of the plate to go to.”

Despite an offseason phone call between the two players to bury the hatchet and move forward, the first Ortiz vs. Price at-bat of 2014 ended in a painful jog down to first base for Boston’s designated hitter and a short night for Red Sox manager John Farrell. 

The intent was clear and direct, bringing fans back to Price’s emotional quote after Ortiz launched an eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of last October’s ALCS, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.

“He knows how I’ve pitched him the last year and a half, probably two years. He steps in the bucket and he hits a homer, and he stares at it to see if it’s fair or foul,” Price said. “I’m sure that’s what he’d say. But as soon as he hit it and I saw it, I knew it was fair. Run.”

Ortiz didn’t run that night, allowing Price the freedom to retaliate eight months later. The reaction of Tampa’s dugout last evening conveyed a feeling of purpose, something the umpire crew clearly agreed with when issuing warnings. 

At that point, the story could have ended. In Boston, Price would have been known as a sore loser and enforcer of old, archaic unwritten rules surrounding batter-pitcher etiquette. 

Although every team is peeved when on the receiving end of the slow, dramatic home run gaze and trot, almost every 25-man roster in baseball has a player or two that does the exact same thing.

Price let emotion and personal vendetta start a feud, but Ortiz’s actions later took the fracas to a ridiculous level. 

In the bottom of the fourth inning, a Price fastball sailed up and in on left-handed hitter Mike Carp, marking the second Red Sox batter plunked in the game. Unlike the Ortiz moment from earlier, there was no motive or logical reason for Price to hit Carp in that situation. 

Tampa entered the game on a three-game losing streak and risked falling behind the lowly Houston Astros for the American League’s worst record if a win didn’t commence on Friday in Boston. With a runner already on second base and Tampa clinging to a slim one-run margin, the idea of Price willingly putting the go-ahead run on base is absurd.

Yet, due to the vitriol from the Ortiz exchange earlier, the Red Sox took it as a pitch meant with more intent and hatred.

The benches clearing incident that followed—spearheaded by Ortiz’s show of emotion on the field—made the situation bigger than it had to be. 

After initially issuing a warning when Price hit Ortiz, the umpires correctly didn’t deem intent on the pitch to Carp. Thousands of Red Sox fans may disagree, but two separate situations suddenly became one thanks to Ortiz and press conference words that will likely live in Fenway infamy, per CSN New England.

“You can’t be acting like a little girl out there,” Ortiz said. “You’re not going to win every time. When you give it up, that’s an experience for the next time. If you’re going act like a little [expletive] when you give it up, bounce back and put your teammates in jeopardy, that’s going to cost you.”

As if that wasn’t enough, Ortiz landed one last barb to the assembled media:

With that, a baseball situation became something more. It’s uncomfortable when athletes use the term “war” to describe anything on a diamond, field, court or rink because of the real-world that exists outside of the multi-billion dollar bubble of professional sports.

Furthermore, the idea that Ortiz wants to continue this nonsense is disconcerting and embarrassing for the game.

Price didn’t have to hit Ortiz, but Ortiz didn’t have to continue the dialogue and banter in the aftermath of a meaningful back-and-forth AL East tilt. 

Rays third baseman Evan Longoria summed up the night best, giving credence to Ortiz’s emotion but putting it in the perspective of baseball wins and losses, not war, per Smith’s Tampa Bay Times report.

“I’m right there with Papi in saying, “It’s game on, whenever we go out there,” Longoria said. “We’re all fierce competitors. But at the end of the day it doesn’t come down to who’s more macho or who has more guts when it comes to going out and clearing the benches. We’re out there fighting to get out of the cellar.”

On Friday night, both Price and Ortiz lost track of what was most important, driving an inane personal vendetta to the breaking point and altering the course of an important game along the way. 


Agree? Disagree?

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10 Biggest Takeaways from the First 2 Months of MLB Action

Over the course of this weekend, almost every team in baseball will have played 54 games of the 2014 schedule. With one-third of the season nearly complete, it’s a perfect time to assess the season thus far.

Since a season-opening tilt between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Australia, baseball has been back, offering new narratives and breakout performances on a weekly basis. Since the second week of play, Bleacher Report has been providing weekly analysis, with a combination of short-term reaction and long-term perspective. 

When this column series began seven weeks ago, rises from the Milwaukee Brewers, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu dominated the early-season takeaways. Before long, pitching dominance in Atlanta and Albert Pujols’ return to form headlined the week.

One month ago, Pujols’ 500th homer, Troy Tulowitzki’s special talent and Cliff Lee’s path to Cooperstown took center stage. Four weeks ago, it was time for an appreciation of Oakland’s AL West dominance, Francisco Rodriguez’s revival and Jayson Werth’s value.

Finally, the last few weeks highlighted Detroit’s road to October, the red-hot Giants, Jose Bautista’s talent, the parity evident around the sport and Edwin Encarnacion’s power surge.

Now, with roughly 66 percent of the season to go, it’s time to dissect and chew on two full months of the 2014 season.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the first two months of the 2014 MLB season.

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Projecting MLB’s Biggest Buyers and Sellers Entering June

In baseball, the season can be broken down into three stages that form the backbone of each campaign, setting the stage for present and future success.

April and May serve as a tentative, conservative stage in which big moves rarely happen, managers don’t sit on hot seats and executives spend countless hours preparing for the June draft. By the time August and September arrive, the work is done and the best teams rise to the top.

During June and July on a yearly basis, however, championships are won or lost. After assessing the strengths and weaknesses of respective 25-man rosters, conducting an entire draft and racking up cellphone minutes with general managers around the league, business commences as the summer kicks into high gear.

With June approaching and every division race up for grabs, the following is a look at projecting which teams will emerge as buyers and sellers over the next few weeks. While more will surely join as performance fluctuates, four teams stand out as examples right now.

 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and are accurate through the start of play on May 31. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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Biggest Takeaways from the First 8 Weeks of the MLB Season

In baseball, a day doesn’t go by without a new story, narrative, ascending club or major injury to dominate the news cycle. It’s easy to get lost in day-to-day headlines on the long, winding path of the 162-game season.

When taking a step back, however, the most interesting performances and images can emerge from a season that’s barreling toward the summer months.

The full story of the 2014 season still hasn’t been written, but characters are emerging, and subplots have taken shape.

When this column series began six weeks ago, rises from the Milwaukee Brewers, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu dominated the early season takeaways. Before long, pitching dominance in Atlanta and Albert Pujols’ return to form headlined the week.

One month ago, Pujols’ 500th homer, Troy Tulowitzki’s special talent and Cliff Lee’s path to Cooperstown took center stage. Three weeks ago, it was time for an appreciation of Oakland’s AL West dominance, Francisco Rodriguez’s revival and Jayson Werth’s value.

Finally, the last two weeks highlighted Detroit’s road to October, the red-hot Giants, Jose Bautista’s talent and the parity evident around the sport.

With eight weeks of baseball to chew on, baseball fans have had a sizable sample of success, failure and intrigue to dissect thus far. 

Here are the biggest takeaways from the first eight weeks of the 2014 MLB season.


Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and are valid through the start of play on May 24. 
All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts

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2014 Phillies Fire Sale Would Completely Change MLB Trade Market

The 2014 Philadelphia Phillies are a confounding baseball team, stuck between a successful past and a bleak future. In the present, a mediocre potential contender has emerged due to the parity engulfing the National League East.

Heading into play on May 22, the Phillies sat at 20-23 through 43 games. Despite a .465 winning percentage and a fourth-place standing in the division, Philadelphia sat just three games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves in the loss column.

Over the next six weeks, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. must decide if one more run at relevance is wise or if a rebuilding process should commence through a July fire sale. Right now, Amaro admits to having no idea about what kind of team he possess, per Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.

“I don’t have any idea yet about that,” Amaro said. “Frankly, we really don’t know what we have. … There’s a lot of parity and a lot of mediocrity out there — including us. We’re playing like a mediocre club. We’re playing like a .500 ballclub.”

If—and it’s a big “if” considering the aggressive nature of Amaro—the Phillies fall out of the race and decide to become sellers over the next two months, the entire complexion of the Major League Baseball trade market would shift. Instantly, the Phillies would hold the cards to the 2014 pennant chase and potentially gain long-term payroll flexibility and a chance to rebuild a less-than-impressive farm system.

Despite its losing record and inconsistency, Philadelphia has veteran pieces that could enhance contenders around the game. From Cliff Lee to Chase Utley to Marlon Byrd to Jonathan Papelbon to A.J. Burnett, a quintet of season-changing players could become available to the highest bidders.

Let’s start with Lee.

The veteran lefty is currently on the 15-day disabled list with an elbow injury, putting a halt on his value and availability at the deadline. Furthermore, losing Lee for an extended period would hurt the Phillies and potentially lead the team down the path of selling in July.

If healthy, Lee is a game-changer and instantly the top arm on the trade market. Despite $37.5 million in salary guarantees remaining after the 2014 season, no potentially available arm—from Jeff Samardzija to Mark Buehrle to Bronson Arroyo—can headline a rotation like Lee. 

Chase Utley is 35, and his days as an MVP-caliber player were supposed to be over. Thus far in 2014, that’s far from the case. Heading into play on May 22, the all-time great Phillies second baseman owned an OPS of .934 and an OPS+ mark of 155. 

Over the course of baseball history, only two second basemen—Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoiehave posted higher adjusted OPS marks during their respective age-35 seasons, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).  

With contenders such as Baltimore (.590 OPS) and Kansas City (.640 OPS) receiving poor production from current second base combinations, Utley’s inclusion on the trade market could bring a substantial return for the Phillies and reshape a lineup in the pennant chase.

Marlon Byrd may fly under the radar, but there’s no denying how good he’s been since the start of the 2013 season. With an OPS+ of 135, Byrd ranks eighth among all outfielders over that span, per Baseball-Reference. Some names behind Byrd on that list: Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, Nelson Cruz and Jay Bruce. 

Last year, Byrd was shipped from the New York Mets to the Pittsburgh Pirates in an August trade. This summer, a similar deal could commence for an impact hitter on a team-friendly two-year, $16 million contract.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon can be loud, brash and irritating to fans. While his personality is controversial and his contract—$13 million for 2015—is prohibitive for an aging reliever, the former Red Sox star is still productive. When factoring in his production (18 G, 2.08 ERA) and his battle-tested nature, a team in need of a closer could be convinced to surrender either cash or prospects for Papelbon’s services this summer.

Finally, there’s A.J. Burnett. As the last piece of the 2014 Phillies puzzle, Burnett arrived to camp after the start of spring training to serve as the third member of a rotation trio along with Lee and Cole Hamels. Through 10 starts, the former Marlins, Blue Jays, Yankees and Pirates starter hasn’t disappointed, pitching to a 3.32 ERA across 59.2 innings.

With World Series experience and a solid FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark of 3.32 since the start of the 2012 season, Burnett would likely draw a slew of suitors in the trade market.  

Every year, franchise-changing moves are made during the trade season. From rebuilding teams selling off veterans to win-now franchises looking to find the final piece to a championship club, expect moves to occur over the next few months.

As the 2014 season evolves, no team holds more weight across baseball than the Phillies. If they stay in the NL East race, potential impact contributors will stay in Philadelphia with the edict of restoring glory to a franchise that owned the NL from 2007-2011. 

If the Phillies can’t survive the recent loss of Lee and succumb to the perils of an aging roster and neophyte manager, one of the most interesting rosters in baseball could supply contenders with multiple stars for the stretch run.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.comESPN.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com

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Is Yangervis Solarte a Future MLB Star or a Flash in the Pan?

When spring training ended, New York Yankees infielder Yangervis Solarte looked like a fringe major league player in the right place at the right time. With depth and age concerns at second base, third base and shortstop, Solarte’s inclusion on the Opening Day roster was born of necessity, rather than dreams of future production.

Seven weeks later, the Yankees may have stumbled upon a future star. Heading into a series with the Chicago Cubs, Solarte owns a .313/.387/.500 slash line and has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season.

The 26-year-old switch-hitter has evolved from a versatile utility man to switch-hitting dynamo in manager Joe Girardi’s everyday lineup. Through Solarte’s first 38 big league games—after spending eight years across minor league stops with the Twins and Rangers—production is evident.

Yet baseball history is littered with tales of flawed players that experienced major league success for a short period. While no one can take away the impact hits, home runs and excellent play provided by Solarte thus far this season, it’s fair to wonder if it can continue.

Based on track record, Solarte is unlikely to continue to hit like a star. If you didn’t know anything about his background or minor league career statistics, though, it wouldn’t be unwise to project sustained success from this player.

In over 2,800 minor league plate appearances, Solarte owned a .733 career OPS. That number is unremarkable and usually enough to dismiss future stardom. Furthermore, his OPS figures actually dropped from .834 to .745 to .727 from 2011 to 2013, spanning his campaigns from age 23 to 25.

Then—seemingly out of nowherea different, more polished player arrived in Tampa, Florida, in February, with an approach that impressed Girardi and the Yankees brass.

“One thing we noticed from the start of spring training was the quality of at-bats,” Girardi said at last week’s Delta Dugout event at MLB Fan Cave. “When we were looking at our potential extra men, we considered him to be a versatile player, switch-hitter and with a sound plan at the plate.”

Those at-bats, his plan at the plate and his quality approach have carried over into the regular season, helping to make Solarte one of baseball’s best hitters through the first quarter of the year. With a 144 OPS+, New York’s breakout star owns a higher mark than both Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Napoli.

Two aspects of Solarte’s play suggest that early-season success isn’t a fluke and more production will follow: plate discipline and line-drive rate.

Let’s start with plate discipline, stemming from the approach Girardi referenced.

Heading into play on May 19, only 15 qualified hitters in baseball owned a 1.00 or better walk-to-strikeout ratio. With strikeouts at an all-time high, the ability to generate more walks than strikeouts is an exceedingly rare trait in hitters. Last season, only four players accomplished the feat over a full season, per ESPN.

Solarte’s inclusion in that group is remarkable when considering the star power alongside New York’s third baseman. From Buster Posey to Andrew McCutchen to Joey Votto, three of the last four NL MVPs are present.

The ability to earn walks and work deep into counts shows that Solarte isn’t a free-swinging, first-pitch hitter who is thriving on luck or the opposition taking him lightly early in counts. Thus far, Solarte is averaging 3.89 pitches per plate appearance. That number is identical to Victor Martinez’s mark from 2013 and better than what Jacoby Ellsbury posted last season en route to a lucrative free-agent contract with New York.

When Solarte chooses to swing away, he’s making excellent contact. In April and May, it can be difficult to separate fact from fiction with statistics. One or two good days can elevate an OPS to eye-popping levels. Bad luck on well-struck hits can cause concern around a low batting average.

Instead of looking at results, it can be instructive to look at the process. For Solarte, both are impressive. According to FanGraphs, Solarte owns a 21.7 percent line-drive rate. That number is higher than the marks of stars like Jose Abreu and Prince Fielder.

Projecting big statistics or extreme success for Solarte’s future is impossible to do at this point. Without a track record of adjustments against major league pitching, a baseline for the remainder of the 2014 season isn’t in place.

However, if Solarte continues to bring a measured, veteran approach to the plate and crush strikes for line drives, expect success to follow. While there may be skeptics about a player who couldn’t crack the roster in Minnesota, Girardi isn’t one of them.

“I don’t know if you ever think someone is going to hit .320 or better,” Girardi said. “That’s tough to do for an established star hitter, but we expect him to continue to be productive because he’s very sound mechanically. We expect him to produce.”

If the 2014 season ended today, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see Solarte’s name on the bottom half of MVP ballots, etched below names like Mike Trout, Abreu, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Martinez, Brandon Moss and Shin-Soo Choo.

While an AL MVP award may be lofty, the idea of Solarte as a flash in the pan becomes less believable by the day. Months after Alex Rodriguez vacated third base in the Bronx, an unheralded star has replaced him.

 

Agree? Disagree?

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Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com. Girardi quote obtained firsthand.

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Victor Martinez Quietly Having Amazing Season in Revamped Tigers Lineup

When baseball fans think of the Detroit Tigers, names like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera are quickly associated with one of baseball’s best teams. For some reason, designated hitter Victor Martinez is lost in the shuffle and allowed to quietly go about his business.

Over a 12-year career, Martinez has been in the business of hitting—and business has been good. Prior to the start of the 2014 season, the former Indians and Red Sox catcher owned 157 home runs and an OPS+ mark of 121. 

Thus far in 2014, the 35-year-old switch-hitter has taken his game to another level. In the process, Martinez has helped Detroit offset the trade of first baseman Prince Fielder. Through 40 games, the Tigers have scored 193 runs, good for an average of over 4.8 per game. Last year, the team scored 796 total runs, good for just over 4.9 per game.

Thanks to the efforts of Martinez, Detroit hasn’t missed a beat despite trading away one of baseball’s top sluggers in Prince Fielder.

After blasting his 11th home run of the season in a series-opening game with Cleveland, Martinez takes a .329/.379/.605 slash line into play on May 20. While an AL-leading slugging percentage should be enough to generate headlines in Detroit, another aspect of Martinez’s season is equally eye-opening and deserving of attention: strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Home runs and runs batted in will get the attention of casual baseball fans, but Martinez’s approach at the plate and throwback style should resonate across generations. After he hit his latest home run off Indians starter Corey Kluber, Martinez now has more home runs (11) than strikeouts (nine) for the season.  

Furthermore, Martinez has walked 14 times in 152 plate appearances, giving him five more walks than strikeouts for the season. Although the season is still young, it’s reached the quarter mark. With that comes merit and distinction for statistics.

According to ESPN’s updated projections, Martinez has established a pace that will yield the following 2014 statistics: 45 home runs, 57 walks, 36 strikeouts. Even if those kind of numbers look unsustainable, the baseline for special performance has been set by Detroit’s star early this season.

In the history of baseball, only seven individual seasons of 40-plus homers and 40 or fewer strikeouts have been recorded. With the rise in strikeouts across the years, not one of those seasons has occurred since 1955.  

Over the last 20 years (1994-2013), only two players—Barry Bonds and Moises Alou—posted seasons of 30-plus home runs and 45 or fewer strikeouts, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Barring an unlikely meteoric late-career rise, Martinez will never be mentioned in the same breath as Bonds, but parallels to the underrated Alou (career 128 OPS+) are fair.

To put Martinez’s season in perspective, consider that his current wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 160 was exceeded by only three hitters—Cabrera, Mike Trout and Chris Davis—over the course of the 2013 season. Martinez is raking like the top three finishers in the last AL MVP vote. 

Although an excellent career and special 2014 season has flown under the radar, one of baseball’s best and most visible players has noticed.

Cabrera, the AL’s reigning MVP, didn’t mince words when asked to describe the prowess of the hitter tasked with protecting him in the lineup, per Terry Foster of The Detroit News: “He is one of the best hitters I have ever seen in my life…He does not take anything for granted.”

Based on the first 40 games of this season and an underrated career since 2002, it’s hard to argue with Cabrera. Right now, Martinez is performing at a unique and special level. 

Martinez certainly has the talent to perform at a high level for an extended period. After all, he did just hit .330 in 540 at-bats in 2011. His ability to switch-hit will provide excellent protection for Cabrera, as teams cannot pitch around him with V-Mart crushing lefties this season.

If it continues, the Tigers will ride the coattails of a once-in-a-generation season all the way to October baseball and a shot at the World Series.

 

Agree? Disagree?

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Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.comESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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