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Biggest Takeaways from the First 7 Weeks of the MLB Season

Baseball’s 162-game schedule allows for introspection and wide-ranging narratives, but the day-to-day news cycle looms for every team. With each injury, disabled list stint, minor league call-up or transaction, the state of the league can easily shift.

With few dominant or awful teams, the beauty of this season lies in the details. Every pitch of every at-bat matters. Therefore, it’s instructive to review the season on a weekly basis. 

When this column series began five weeks ago, rises from the Milwaukee Brewers, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu dominated the early season takeaways. Before long, pitching dominance in Atlanta and Albert Pujols’ return to form headlined the week.

Three weeks ago, Pujols’ 500th homer, Troy Tulowitzki’s special talent and Cliff Lee’s path to Cooperstown took center stage. Two weeks ago, it was time for an appreciation of Oakland’s AL West dominance, Francisco Rodriguez’s revival and Jayson Werth’s value.

Finally, last week highlighted Detroit’s road to October, the red-hot Giants and Jose Bautista’s talent.

Another week has come and gone, allowing baseball fans the chance to sit back, reflect and think about the first quarter of the 2014 campaign. Here are the biggest takeaways from the first seven weeks of the season.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and are valid through the start of play on May 16. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts. Joe Girardi quote obtained firsthand.

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How the New MLB Instant Replay System Is Affecting Manager Ejections

When Major League Baseball chose to implement expanded instant replay for the 2014 season, the game changed for the better. Despite hiccups in the system or uncertainty around new, untested rules, the sport is now better equipped to give fans a fair outcome on every single call.

Of course, change and progress doesn’t come without consequence. With expanded instant replay and the ability for managers to challenge close calls or blatantly obvious mistakes by umpires, there’s little need for manager-umpire arguments—especially the heated, highlight-worthy debates that became so memorable. 

Through April 24, only three managers—Boston’s John Farrell, Texas’ Ron Washington and Cubs skipper Rick Renteria—were ejected from games. Of those three, both Farrell and Washington were tossed when arguing the result of instant replay decisions, per Doug Miller of MLB.com.

Renteria and Yankees manager Joe Girardi have been removed from games this season for arguing one of the only areas of the game not subject to instant replay: balls and strikes. Despite how ridiculous and fruitless the idea of arguing over an unchangeable call now seems, that was the reality of most on-field rifts for years.

What was once a regular occurrence is becoming a thing of the past. According to Cork Gaines of Business Insider—using data through the first four weeks of the seasonmanagerial ejections were on pace to drop 46.0 percent from last year.

Baseball is evolving without the manager ejection. Iconic images and clips like Lou Piniella kicking dirt, Lloyd McClendon literally stealing second base and Bobby Valentine re-emerging in the dugout after an ejection—in full disguise—will soon be archaic for the next generation of baseball fans.

Unsurprisingly, current managers—all of which grew up, played, coached and managed during an era of high-octane arguments and ejections—are noticing the difference and change in demeanor with umpires during the game, per Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.

“It’s just turning into a lovefest,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. “It’s almost like you can’t get upset anymore.”

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire—owner of 68 ejections since 2002, per Scott Lindholm’s research at Beyond the Box Score—told Smith that the fun has been taken out of leaving the dugout to contest a call on the field.

“It’s kind of weird,” Gardenhire said. “You’re used to coming out of the dugout all fired up. Now you’re waiting for someone to give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down. It’s really not that much fun. It’s kind of boring.”

When Girardi was rung up by umpire Laz Diaz during a May 5 game in Los Angeles, the 2014 season had its first blast from the past. From Girardi‘s obvious anger to Diaz‘s unprofessional, yet comical, bravado as he wagged a finger toward Yankee players questioning his calls, the episode brought back memories of how baseball once regularly looked. 

Beyond the amusing and entertaining aspects of manager-umpire dustups, an interesting and important consequence could soon become part of the game. By staying in the dugout, managers can potentially have more impact on a game and season.

Of course, it’s not hard to imagine relaying decisions, signs or thoughts from below the dugout, but there’s something to be said for having a manager in the dugout for all nine innings of every game throughout the season. With rule changes and fewer ejections, that will likely be the case for a handful—or more—of managers throughout the season. 

With pitch counts, defensive shifts and parity in vogue, the job of a manager is becoming more vital to the success or failure of each team. Although skippers can’t truly influence the outcome of many games, the sport is becoming more competitive and analytical on a yearly basis.

If franchises are picking the brightest minds to navigate a 25-man roster through a six-month grind, the more time spent in the dugout, the better.

Logic aside, there’s something missing from the game. Unlike on-ice fights in the NHL, the quick, fan-friendly distraction of baseball’s manager-umpire argument and impending ejection was a welcomed aspect to watching or attending a game. Due to the emotion of the moment, managers would often argue for the sake of firing up their respective teams.

The game will adjust, and fans will adapt, but instant replay’s unintended consequence is clear throughout the first seven weeks of the season: Manager ejections are a thing of the past.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.comESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Biggest Takeaways from the First 6 Weeks of the MLB Season

At the conclusion of play on May 8, almost half of the teams in baseball had played at least 35 games or more than 20 percent of the 2014 schedule. By the end of the weekend, every team will reach the 20 percent pole of the season, giving fans a chance to sit back and analyze what narratives to focus in on when summer approaches.

On a day-to-day basis, Major League Baseball players and teams can confound, confuse and frustrate. Yet, over a full season of innings, at-bats and plays, the best individuals and groups emerge to form the backbone of the sport. 

When this column series began four weeks ago, rises from the Milwaukee Brewers, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu dominated the early-season takeaways. Before long, pitching dominance in Atlanta and Albert Pujols’ return to form headlined the week.

Two weeks ago, Pujols’ 500th homer, Troy Tulowitzki’s special talent and Cliff Lee’s path to Cooperstown took center stage. Finally, last week brought an appreciation for Oakland’s AL West dominance, Francisco Rodriguez’s revival and Jayson Werth’s value. 

With another week in the books, more perspective has been delivered for the baseball community. Here are the biggest takeaways from the first six weeks of the 2014 MLB season.

 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and are valid through the start of play on May 9. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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10 MLB Prospects Who Look to Be Taking a Step Back in 2014

Baseball enthusiasts can become obsessed with prospects. For every group of fans, regardless of payroll or market size, the idea of a special young player making the jump to the big league club is tantalizing. Despite the number of prospects that flame out on a yearly basis, the pursuit of the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper is never-ending.

When publications like Baseball America, MLB.com or Baseball Prospectus release prospect rankings, the experts in charge of charting, scouting and analyzing young, undeveloped players are simply making educated guesses.

Sometimes, those guesses are prescient. After all, some of baseball’s best and brightest stars were former highly touted prospects.

Of course, the guesses can also turn out to be very, very wrong. Due to a combination of natural regression, injuries and poor luck, prospects rarely take a straight path from the bottom of the minor leagues to the top of the majors.

Thus far in 2014, 10 well-known prospects are dealing with adversity and a noticeable dip in performance from last year. Six weeks of minor league statistics or poor play shouldn’t drastically re-shape the future of any of these players, but more information can become instructive for their respective parent clubs.


Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com an
d MiLB.comunless otherwise noted, and accurate as of May 8, 2014. 

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MLB Players Who’d Be National Superstars If They Played in Big Cities

It’s never been a better time to be a Major League Baseball superstar. From social media to the ability to watch any game, any time and in any city, fans have been given a unique privilege of watching the best players in baseball on a daily basis.

Years ago, that simply wasn’t the case. Before the rise of the Internet, cable and incessant day-to-day coverage of every team in every sport, fans were beholden to the players in the cities where they lived. On that same note, players—regardless of market size or off-the-field financial constraints—were forced to adapt to the cities in which they played.

That led to small-market stars feeling for the bright lights of New York and Los Angeles. In 2014, that type of thinking doesn’t exist at nearly the same level. With media and luxury-tax money spread around to every team in the game, star plays aren’t reluctant to re-sign with mid-market clubs.

But that doesn’t mean exposure is the same. Great players can be recognized by Bleacher Report and MLB Network regardless of the cities they play in, but casual fans still put big-market stars on a pedestal because they are easier to access and have swarms of media members covering their every at-bat or inning in the field.

The following five players are stars regardless of the cities in which they play. But if they were performing at a high level in New York, Boston or Los Angeles, true superstar status would follow them on a yearly basis.


Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference an
d Fangraphsunless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts. Stats valid entering play May 8, 2014. 

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Is Mariano Rivera Right About Choosing Dustin Pedroia over Robinson Cano?

Former New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera was revered during his legendary career for his impeccable character, honesty and lifestyle. Controversy never followed the all-time-great closer during a nearly two-decade stint in New York.

Less than a year into retirement, that’s changed. Rivera’s new autobiography The Closer has hit bookshelves across the country. As the New York Daily News‘ Mark Feinsand chronicled, the former Yankees star used his new forum as a chance to voice an opinion on his former teammate and current Seattle Mariners star, Robinson Cano.

More specifically, why Rivera would chose Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia over Cano if the choice between excellent second basemen was left to him. Per Feinsand‘s transcription of Rivera’s book:

This guy has so much talent I don’t know where to start… There is no doubt that he is a Hall-of-Fame caliber (player). It’s just a question of whether he finds the drive you need to get there. I don’t think Robby burns to be the best… You don’t see that red-hot passion in him that you see in most elite players.

Later, Rivera expounded on Pedroia, a star at the “top of his list” of players he admires.

“Nobody plays harder, gives more, wants to win more, ” Rivera wrote. “He comes at you hard for twenty-seven outs. It’s a special thing to see. … If I have to win one game, I’d have a hard time taking anybody over Dustin Pedroia as my second baseman.”

Any player—especially a Cooperstown-bound star and five-time World Series champion—has the right to an opinion on talent, drive, work ethic and on-field baseball acumen. If Rivera truly believes that Pedroia is a better player than Cano, he’s entitled to do so.

However, if the now-retired star is simply using a hot take to sell copies of his new book, the opinion becomes harder to digest. When looking at the Cano vs. Pedroia debate through the prism of on-field performance, it’s hard to see the reasoning behind choosing Boston’s star as the superior player.

As the numbers show, Cano has been a more durable star and far more prolific offensive player since the start of the 2007 season. When factoring in defense and baserunning, the advantage in WAR—using both Baseball-Reference.com’s and FanGraphs‘ calculations—is split, with both players narrowly gaining an edge: 

If there’s one area where Cano is the superior player, it’s in the batters box. When breaking down the Cano-Pedroia debate using solely offensive value, Seattle’s $240 million man stands alone. From 2007-2013, only Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols provided more offensive value to their respective clubs.  

It’s impossible to draw the line between Rivera’s opinion and raw, unfiltered statistics that the former player may or may not have had handy when expounding on the subject in an autobiography. In reality, it doesn’t matter. Choosing Pedroia as a better player is a matter of debate, even if the statistics give Cano an edge.

On the other hand, two aspects of the excerpt paint Rivera in a poor light: The choice of Pedroia to “win one game” and questioning Cano’s “burn” and “red-hot passion” to be the best he can be.

Let’s start with Pedroia over Cano for the purpose of one win-or-go-home game. As chronicled, both players are brilliant, transcendent talents at second base. During the seven-year stretch studied, few players in baseball provided more value in all of baseball. 

Yet, part of Cano’s value is rooted in his durability. From 2007-2013, major league teams each played 1,134 regular-season games. Over that span, Cano missed just 14. In other words, he suited up for an average of 160 of 162 games per season. During that same span, Pedroia missed 149 games—the equivalent of almost a full regular season.

In order to justify Pedroia over Cano, the current Red Sox star would have to be healthy and actually on the diamond in a do-or-die game. Based on how the last seven years have gone, that’s far from a guarantee in Boston. With Cano, playing time is a lock.

Undoubtedly, the most inaccurate part of Rivera’s rant centered around the idea that Cano doesn’t strive to be the best or have the burn to become an all-time great player. For years, Cano’s on-field demeanor has confused baseball pursuits and fans. Because of all-world gifts and talent, Cano doesn’t always come across as a gritty, hustling player, like, say, Pedroia.

Confusing grit for drive is a mistake made by fans but shouldn’t be given credence by a former teammate. When Rivera chose to question how hard Cano works at his craft, he basically admitted to a lack of awareness in the clubhouse that he once policed.

After all, if Rivera had simply paid attention during recent offseasons, he would have been privy to stories of Cano’s winter baseball boot camp, per Daniel Barbarisi of The Wall Street Journal:

Cano rousts his pupils out of bed as early as 5 a.m., just as the sun rises over his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic. Most days, Cano wants to hit the track by 6:30 a.m., and woe to anyone who holds him up. His students are universally shocked by the rigor. They are all major leaguers, and they thought they worked hard. Then they joined up with Cano.

“I was like, ‘Wow. When do we finish?'” said former Yankee Eduardo Nunez. “And then he tells me we just got started. And then we did it again. Every day.”

Book excerpts aside, any city would be lucky to have second basemen like Cano or Pedroia. Both are stars, work hard and give their respective teams a chance to win on a nightly basis. Choosing one over the other is a matter of opinion, but facts are vital to forming an educated take.

After sharing a clubhouse with Cano for nine seasons and battling Pedroia for nearly a decade, it would be easy to assume that Rivera had the requisite information to deliver a measured and deliberate response to the great second base debate. Yet in this case, that wouldn’t be a very good strategy for selling books.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.comESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Pitchers Who Could Challenge MLB’s 20-Strikeout Game Record

If you are a fan of power pitching and strikeout artists, it’s never been a better time to watch the game of baseball evolve. Heading into play on May 5, 26 starting pitchers were averaging at least one strikeout per inning. In 2005, only three—Mark Prior, Johan Santana and Jake Peavy—reached that mark.

As the anniversaries of the most recent 20-strikeout performancesKerry Wood in 1998 and Randy Johnson in 2001—arrive this week, an interesting question arises: Which starter will be the next to join the 20-strikeout club?

The following list singles out 10 dominant arms capable of registering double-digit strikeouts every single time they toe the rubber, but why stop there? Power arms are on the rise, making a list like this open to interpretation and addition, not subtraction. 

Last season, teams averaged 1,224 strikeouts, per ESPN. To put that in perspective, Johnson’s 2001 feat came during a time when the average team struck out just 1,080 times. Strikeouts have never been easier to achieve in the history of baseball.

Sooner that later, a 20-strikeout performance will occur, perhaps during the 2014 season.

When it does, remember these names. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted, and are valid through the start of play on May 5. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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NL Player of the Month Troy Tulowitzki Looks Like Legit 2014 MVP Candidate

Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has always had the requisite talent to be one of the very best players in baseball. Thus far in 2014, talent, health and production have come together to form the foundation for a special season.

On the path to April’s NL Player of the Month award, Tulowitzki established himself as something even bigger: an NL MVP candidate.

The 29-year-old Rockies star is off to a blistering start—.408/.512/.786, 9 HR, 29 RBIin 2014. When his eighth and ninth home runs of the season cleared the outfield fence at Coors Field on Monday evening, another notice was sent to the entire National League: Free from injury concerns, Tulowitzki’s all-world ability is out in full force. 

While it’s impossible to expect a OPS bordering on 1.300 for an entire season, don’t be surprised if baseball fans start uttering Tulowitzki’s name with Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera when the most important and valuable position players in the game are mentioned. 

Due to a combination of injuries—279 games missed from 2011 to 2013—and awful play from the Rockies in the NL West, Tulowitzki’s stardom has been suppressed and largely forgotten. Without nationally televised games, meaningful September baseball or day-to-day brilliance for young, impressionable fans to consume, a special player was lost.

Doubt surrounding Colorado’s highest-paid player was evident. As Tulowitzki explained to Nick Groke of The Denver Post, it fueled his return to stardom. 

“No doubt I think I’ve had so many things to kind of fuel the fire the last couple of yearsthe injury history, people constantly talking about that,” Tulowitzki said.

Now, as the Rockies reap the benefits of a middle-of-the-diamond player hitting like a modern day Ted Williams or Barry Bonds, it’s time to recognize just how great Tulowitzki is playing and how good he’s been over the years, despite time lost to injury and the abyss of Coors Field.

When Tulowitzki burst on the scene in 2006 and 2007, the Rockies emerged from nondescript franchise to World Series participant. At the age of 22, Tulowitzki racked up 292 total bases and looked poised to carry the Rockies to October on a yearly basis like another famous No. 2 that played the position. 

Of course, that narrative didn’t play out. Since a World Series loss in 2007, the Rockies have only made the postseason once. During that span, only one 90-win season (2009) has occurred with Tulowitzki as the franchise player and dominant force at shortstop.

Despite the losing, Tulowitzki has been a special player. From 2009 to 2011, Tulowitzki finished in the top eight of the NL MVP voting every year. During that span, his 19.3 WAR ranked fifth in baseball, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Outside of Evan Longoria, Albert Pujols, Ben Zobrist and Ryan Braun, no player in baseball provided more value to his respective team.

For as good as he was during those seasons, he’s even better right now. When added together, a once-in-a-generation shortstop has emerged. Tulowitzki’s hot start in 2014 has catapulted him into the top spot among OPS leaders at the shortstop position. 

The history of baseball is littered with special talents at shortstop, but Tulowitzki currently owns a higher on-base plus slugging percentage than any shortstop ever to play the game. Even when factoring out Alex Rodriguez—more career games played at third base—the distinction is remarkable. For as great as Cal Ripken, Nomar Garciaparra, Honus Wagner and Derek Jeter were, Tulowitzki has overtaken them all. 

To be fair, Coors Field plays a role in that success. Spending 50 percent of a career in one of the greatest offensive venues in history will inflate numbers, but don’t mistake Tulowitzki for a Coors Field creation. His .473 road slugging percentage is higher than the career marks of Miguel Tejada, Robin Yount and Alan Trammell, per Baseball-Reference.

Now, the question becomes: Can the great Rockies shortstop put together one full season of eye-opening and game-changing play?  

Based on the first 31 games of 2014, the idea of opposing pitchers slowing him down is becoming less and less believable. Heading into play on May 5, Baseball-Reference had already credited Tulowitzki with 3.3 WAR for the young season. To put that in perspective, Ryan Howard’s best season WAR was 5.2

If, say, Tulowitzki played at this level for 150 games, Trout and Cabrera would be forced to cede the co-mantle they share atop the sport. Only three players in baseball history—Babe Ruth, Carl Yastrzemski and Rogers Hornsby—eclipsed 12.0 WAR in a single season. At this rate, Tulowitzki would reach that mark by early August. 

Eventually, a slump will occur and statistics will wane. Yet, if the Rockies can get 150 games from their leading man, a legitimate NL MVP should materialize. With that, contention could follow for a franchise desperately in need of meaningful games after the All-Star break.

This early-season charge isn’t reminiscent of recent late-career bloomers like Chris Davis or Jose Bautista. Instead, a former potentially great player has graduated into a healthy and dominant force in the National League. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.comESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Biggest Takeaways from the First 5 Weeks of the MLB Season

An important day has arrived, baseball fans. With the 2014 Major League Baseball season graduating from April to May and five weeks of play in the books, it’s officially time to stop using “small sample size” to justify or defend statistics, trends and narratives.

With every passing the day, results from 2013 matter less and early season headlines become more instructive as we dissect what is happening on the field. Every pitch, inning and game brings us closer to clarity on surprise teams and players. 

When this column series began three weeks ago, rises from the Milwaukee Brewers, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu dominated the early season takeaways. Before long, pitching dominance in Atlanta and Albert Pujols’ return to form headlined the week. Last week, Pujols’ 500th homer, Troy Tulowitzki’s special talent and Cliff Lee’s path to Cooperstown took center stage.

Another week of baseball provided more answers, talking points and storylines to watch. Here are the biggest takeaways from the first five weeks of the 2014 MLB season.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted, and are valid through the start of play on May 2. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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Bryce Harper’s Injury Leaves Nationals Hustling to Keep Up in Tough NL East

Bryce Harper and the Washington Nationals came into the 2014 season showered with predictions of October glory. Before the start of May, plans of National League East dominance have been put on hold for the foreseeable future due to a thumb injury that will keep Harper out until at least early July.

That news, per Keith Law of ESPN.com, takes one of baseball’s brightest stars away from the Nationals until around the All-Star break, adds another injury to a growing list in Washington and changes the narrative in one of the most interesting divisions in the sport.

When spring training began, the Nationals looked poised for a special season. Led by a deep pitching staff, a fresh approach from the managerial seat and all-around stars such as Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Harper, Washington profiled as a team that could run away with the National League East.

Furthermore, the Atlanta Braves suffered through high-profile starting pitching injuries and teams such as the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and Miami Marlins were either poorly constructed, in the midst of a rebuild or simply a year or two away from serious contention.

As May approaches and Harper exits the spotlight, it’s time to reconsider the Nationals’ place in the NL East hierarchy.

While it would be a fool’s errand to simply hand the division to the red-hot Braves or classify Washington’s entire 2014 season as a lost cause, the Harper injury has the potential to hold back the Nationals for the entire first half of the season—if not longer. 

Despite a slow start (.289/.352/.422, 1 HR, 21 SO), Harper’s talent and potential were key to a quick and steady rise atop the division. Since the then-19-year-old arrived as an April call-up in 2012, Harper has been one of the most valuable outfielders in all of baseball. Typically, Harper’s star power and accolades are put into context with current or former young major league players.

In this case, there’s no need to classify Harper’s peer group as anything but fellow outfielders. The following chart shows how valuable Harper has been to the Nationals. Losing the left-handed slugger for two months is nearly the equivalent of taking Jose Bautista away from the Toronto Blue Jays or Giancarlo Stanton away from Miami. 

Despite a big payroll and win-now roster, don’t expect the Nationals to look for a high-profile replacement for their lost outfielder. Last month, Nationals owner Mark Lerner was asked about payroll flexibility, per Bill Ladson of MLB.com.

“We’re beyond topped out,” Lerner said. “Our payroll, as you know, has skyrocketed to about $140 million. I don’t think we can go much farther with the revenue stream that we have.”

Of course, good teams should be able to overcome injuries without the help of major in-season additions. While the Nationals fall into that category, the team has been dealing with ailments to Zimmerman, catcher Wilson Ramos and starting pitcher Doug Fister. The latter hasn’t thrown an inning yet this season. 

It’s possible that the Nationals could survive and thrive without Harper and complementary players, but one more injury to an impact performer—such as Werth, Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann—could hold a formerly loaded roster down for a long period of time.

With the NL East looking better by the day, simply playing .500 baseball through the All-Star break might not be good enough for Washington. 

If Harper’s injury had been sustained during the first few weeks of spring training, the narrative around the Nationals likely wouldn’t have suffered because of a division that looked to have just one team—the perennially competitive Braves—capable of winning more than 85 games. With four weeks of the 2014 season in the books, the story is evolving.

Atlanta has won 17 of 24 games, shrugged off pitching concerns and thrived when it seemed it was likely to fall from the 96-win perch it sat on last season. With young, ascending stars such as Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons leading the way, the Braves should be able to stay in the race all summer long. 

More surprising: Solid starts by the Phillies and Mets, teams that last posted winning records during the same season in 2008. 

With the core of a formerly dominant team—Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins—healthy, the Phillies just need solid production from complementary pieces in order to surprise baseball and stay in the race

Heading into play on April 29, Mets starters own a 3.46 ERA. That mark is good for ninth in baseball, per ESPN. If that type of stingy pitching continues throughout the summer, competitive baseball could return to Queens, New York, for the first time in six years. 

Although the last-place Marlins look more feisty than competitive, Washington will miss Harper’s .918 career OPS against Miami during three head-to-head games in late May.

Harper’s 2014 season had the potential for greatness. Along the way, the Nationals had the potential to run away and hide in a below-average division. Four weeks and one major injury can’t derail everything once thought, but it’s more than enough to usher in doubt.

Eventually, Harper will return to reprise his role as one of the best young players in the world. When he does, the Nationals will look to make a move in a suddenly competitive division. Over the next two months, anything goes in the NL East.

 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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