Kuzul

Four weeks ago, the 2014 Major League Baseball season arrived. The glitz and glamour of Opening Day came with reactions from offseason moves and spring training narratives.

While it’s foolish to amend most preseason expectations and declarations with only about 15 percent of the schedule finished, perspective is starting to arrive for the season playing out in front of our eyes. Four weeks of competition isn’t enough to win a pennant, but it could be enough to make analysts and fans reconsider what seemed academic just one month ago.

Last week, Yasiel Puig’s plight, struggles in Arizona and brilliance in Atlanta were the stories. Now we have a new slate of evolving trends to consider and dissect. The season is taking form and potentially laying the groundwork for a special summer in the sport.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the first four weeks of the 2014 MLB season.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted, and are valid through the start of play on April 25. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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At the conclusion of play on April 11, most major league teams had played at least 10 games or one-sixteenth of a six-month schedule. For baseball fans familiar with week-to-week reactions of NFL fans, the 2014 season is at the same stage a football season is after Week 1.

That, of course, can be taken in different ways. No position player has garnered enough at-bats to derive legitimate meaning, nor does any pitcher have enough innings to tell a full tale. Of course, hot or cold starts could be instructive when projecting the rest of the year.

It’s not easy to separate the signal from the noise during any portion of a marathon season, but Bleacher Report is going to attempt the nearly impossible: finding meaning through a forest of stats, numbers and narratives that have graced baseball fans over the last two weeks.

What’s real? What’s bound to change over the next few weeks?

Here are the biggest takeaways from the first two weeks of the 2014 MLB season.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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When CC Sabathia was in his prime, dominance seemed to follow regardless how sharp his stuff was in a particular outing. Upon arriving to the New York Yankees in 2009, the perfect blend of talent and maturity accompanied the big lefty to the Bronx. 

With a 94-96 mph fastball and the wisdom of eight years of big league pitching under his belt, Sabathia dominated AL East rivals and helped the Yankees win a World Series. Like any pitcher, decline was expected to eventually arrive, but smarts and pitching acumen were poised to get Sabathia through the years when his fastball and sharp stuff no longer appeared.

Or so we thought.

On Friday night, Sabathia was cruising against the Boston Red Sox in an early-season clash of titans in baseball’s toughest division. Through five innings, Sabathia’s performance rivaled his best days as Boston couldn’t buy a run. 

Then, in a the span of an inning, it all fell apart. When Sabathia’s sixth-inning slider to Grady Sizemore missed its target, a game-winning home run ensued. With the blast, questions once again emerged around a pitcher that the Yankees owe $76 million through the end of the 2017 season. 

At this point, it’s a fool’s errand to expect Sabathia’s fastball to return to the speed it once routinely touched. From 2004-2011, Sabathia’s average fastball velocity never dipped below 92.9 mph in any season and topped 94 mph in two separate years. 

It was that velocity—coupled with great secondary stuff, command and control—that made Sabathia one of the best pitchers in baseball. From 2002-2011, spanning Sabathia’s age-21-30 seasons, he won 159 games, pitched 2,184 innings, posted a 3.44 ERA, ERA+ of 127 and was worth 47.7 WAR. 

To put those numbers into perspective, consider this: Over that 10-year span, only two pitchers—Roy Halladay and Johan Santana—were more valuable. Only two—Halladay and Mark Buehrle—pitched more innings. Only one—Javier Vazquez—struck out more batters. Among pitchers with at least 1,500 innings pitched during that time frame, only three—Halladay, Santana and Roy Oswalt—owned a better adjusted ERA.

Sabathia was dominant, partly because of his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. As his career has hit the skids, it’s that—more than just velocity or diminishing stuff—that has made him so vulnerable to the big inning and game-changing hit. 

FanGraph’s HR/FB rate has been tracking fly ball data since 2002, Sabathia’s second year in the league and the start of his dominance. On a yearly basis (with the exception of 2005), less than 10 percent of fly balls hit against Sabathia flew over the wall for home runs. 

Over the last three seasons, including a very small-sample size of three starts in 2014, that number has exploded to 12.5, 13.0 and 38.5 percent, respectively. The decline of Sabathia’s stuff has been the trigger for issues, but the damage done when the ball is hit in the air is causing everything else to become magnified in New York.

Regardless of the innings Sabathia piled up in his prime, opposing hitters rarely tagged him for an inordinate amount of home runs. From 2002-2011, Sabathia surrendered an average of 19 home runs per season. 

Since Opening Day of 2012, he’s allowed 55, including Sizemore’s blast on Friday night against the Red Sox. 

It’s likely that the Yankees have come to terms with the southpaw’s struggles, downturn in velocity and diminishing returns, but the home run rates and bad innings are becoming alarming. Despite feeling good about this pitcher for five or six innings per start, a home run usually arrives to unravel all of the solid work done. 

The remainder of the 2014 season can’t be about velocity or innings or toughness when it comes to evaluating Sabathia’s chances at resuming his role as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Instead, it has to be about his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. 

If he can limit home runs, results will follow. If he can’t, the Yankees are going to spend a frustrating summer explaining why Sabathia looks, feels and pitches fairly well, yet games end in heart-breaking fashion in the Bronx.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLB Depth Charts. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Heading into the 2014 season, Ivan Nova was the least talked-about member of the New York Yankees starting rotation. In this instance, don’t confuse attention for importance in the Bronx.

CC Sabathia entered spring noticeably lighter—in both weight and fastball velocity—Masahiro Tanaka caused a stir every time he stepped on the mound, Hiroki Kuroda faced questions about a poor second half of 2013 and Michael Pineda needed a big spring to secure the No. 5 role in the rotation.

Meanwhile, Nova’s role—somewhere in the middle of New York’s staff—was secure, based on a rock-solid second half of 2013 (13 GS, 2.78 ERA) and excellent spring (19.2 IP, 10.50 SO/BB). At the age of 27, Nova’s career trajectory and ability left him off the back pages in New York, but squarely in the Yankees plans for success in 2014 and beyond.

With two starts under his belt, the Nova of late last summer and spring training 2014 hasn’t made an appearance yet. Despite securing a personal victory in a season-opening series in Houston, Nova left Tuesday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles sporting an 8.68 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. 

It’s early and small-sample size numbers can be eye-opening in April, but the real Ivan Nova must soon emerge for a Yankees team depending on a deep and durable starting rotation to make up for question marks across the infield and bullpen.

After getting hit around Yankee Stadium by the powerful Orioles offense, Nova now has over 525 innings of major league service time under his belt. In theory, that should be more than enough to make a determination on the type of arm he has and performer he can become.  

Yet despite ample time to prove himself as a top-tier starter, Nova continues to confound. Until the Yankees can coax a full season of very good performance out of their talented righty, questions will persist.

To be fair, Nova’s 2014 season can’t be judged or outlook changed based on two outings. In fact, positives can be taken out of both seemingly underwhelming performances by Nova through New York’s first eight games. 

In Houston, Nova showed toughness and a knack for generating double-play grounders at opportune times. Without command or feel for his entire arsenal, the game could have easily got out of hand against the hapless Astros. The ability to battle and keep the team in the game—a career-long trait of Nova’s former rotation mate, Andy Pettitte—should be praised more than a high WHIP should be scorned. 

Against the Orioles, shaky infield defense—specifically Derek Jeter’s diminishing range and Yangervis Solarte’s average athleticism—allowed innings to snowball and batted balls to turn into big, game-changing innings. Still, the home run Nova allowed can’t be blamed on anyone but him. The same can be said for a slew of strikes over the middle of the plate. 

Nova’s inability to string together consistent excellence is quickly becoming his hallmark. That, in itself, isn’t particularly troubling. In fact, heading into Tuesday’s start, Nova owned a career ERA+ of 105 across 90 major league outings. Above-average production is valuable, but Nova’s tantalizing moments—including a fourth-place finish in the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year vote—gives hope that he could blossom into more. 

Last season, his month-by-month production was another example of perplexing performance. Across July and August, few pitchers were better. In April, few pitchers were worse. When totaling the 23 appearances, Nova’s ERA+ ranked among the best seasons any 26-year-old Yankee starter has ever posted, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).  

Despite that, FanGraphs‘ projections systems like Oliver (3.95 ERA, 2.0 WAR), Steamer (4.13 ERA, 2.3 WAR) and ZiPS (3.98 ERA, 2.1 WAR) didn’t peg Nova for anything close to a Cy Young campaign in 2014. Projections and predictions can be taken with a grain of salt or they can be instructive. 

In Nova’s case, the latter probably applies.

Two starts don’t disqualify Nova from excellence for the remainder of 2014, but the prior 83 do suggest unpredictability and variance from outing to outing. If you were banking on Nova emerging into one of the best starters in baseball, it might be time to acknowledge that inconsistency is as much a part of his repertoire as great stuff. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the long, winding path of baseball’s 162-game season, expectations and hype can be overshadowed by day-to-day results, small-sample size narratives and early-season headlines. In a league where parity is becoming an operative word, more than half of the majors entered 2014 with hype—either from external or internal forces.

When staring down the 40-man rosters of each team, examining potential contributors on the verge of arriving from the minors and separating the signal from the noise of the early portion of the season, four teams emerge as candidates to fail in the quest to live up to hype.

Over the next six months, each team will have moments of glory and success, but ultimately will fall short of the hype. Most importantly, none will qualify for the 2014 postseason. 

Here are the teams that will come short of the hype—real or imagined—surrounding the franchise.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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The first start of Masahiro Tanaka‘s career with the New York Yankees is officially in the books at the Rogers Centre. After two rocky innings, Tanaka settled down and dominated a talented Blue Jays lineup over seven innings. 

Aside from the scoreless innings and pitch-by-pitch execution, two things stood out about Tanaka’s first performance: poise and command.

Despite the circumstances and early difficulty, Tanaka didn’t show any signs of nervousness or outward frustration when results weren’t present in the early innings. By keeping his composure, legitimate and evident talent eventually took over.

Over the course of the game, Tanaka’s command became more and more impressive. His final line included eight strikeouts against zero walks. To put that in perspective, only 28 starters achieved that line on multiple occasions last season, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Through one career start, Tanaka is halfway toward company that includes James Shields, Felix Hernandez and Jose Fernandez. 

Tanaka’s final line: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 R, 0 BB, 8 SO, 1 HR, 97 pitches

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As Derek Jeter‘s 20th and final major league season begins in Houston, the Yankees captain can be described as a leader, winner and offensive genius. For media members and fans, statistics and accolades tell the story of an all-time great shortstop.

For former teammates, there’s more to the story.

Last week, Tino Martinez and Dwight Gooden—former teammates and longtime friends of Jeter—were at the MLB Fan Cave in New York to promote a new partnership with Major League Baseball, Arm & Hammer and OxiClean.

Aside from business, the former New York baseball greats and World Series champions couldn’t wait to talk baseball, specifically the impending retirement and career of Jeter.

During individual conversations with Bleacher Report, both Gooden and Martinez raved about the leader the Yankee captain has been throughout his entire career.  

Although Jeter wasn’t officially named captain until 2003, it was clear who the leader of the team was from the moment the rookie shortstop began his first full season in 1996.

“Derek carried himself like a veteran,” Gooden said. “Confident, but not cocky. What I always admired about Derek was how he never changed. When I came back to the Yankees in 2000, he was the same exact guy. Much more accomplished and with a big contract, but that work ethic never changed.”

Martinez—a teammate of Jeter’s throughout New York’s dynasty run from 1996-2001—extolled similar praises and acknowledged that vocal leadership wasn’t Jeter’s specialty, but it didn’t have to be in order to get the mandate across.

“He led by example,” Martinez said. “His whole career has been that way. Plays hard, plays to win. Expects the most from his teammates. When you’re in battle with a guy like that, it’s important not to let him down. From superstars to the 25th man on the roster, we all felt a responsibility to play hard and play to win because of Jeter. That’s rare.”

Over the years, Jeter’s demeanor on the field has been confused with his personality away from the diamond. Between the white lines, it’s all business. In the media, short, stoic answers profile as Jeter’s way of handling his duty and avoiding controversy in a headline-rich city like New York.

Away from the field and cameras, Jeter couldn’t be more different.

“He’s a comedian,” Gooden said.

Not just a guy who cracks jokes, but one who can have fun with everyone by playing practical jokes on unsuspecting teammates.

“Most people don’t see that side of Derek,” Gooden said while shaking his head. “He’s very loose and picks up on any little thing that he can use to get you. Looking back, he got me plenty of times!”

Martinez thinks it’s a shame that fans don’t realize there’s more to Jeter than baseball.

“Derek is a true professional on and off the field,” Martinez said. “Of course, that’s what people see and remember. But he’s much more fun than people might think. We’re great friends off the field and he’s really a fun guy.”

Of course, Jeter wouldn’t be headed for Cooperstown if it were just for leadership traits and an underrated sense of humor. At some point, every player is judged by their ability to play the game at a high level. 

Heading into the 2014 season, Jeter owns sterling career numbers that rival or surpass any shortstop in the history of the sport. From 3,316 career hits to 1,876 runs scored to an .828 OPS, accolades and All-Star Game appearances would have commenced even if the intangibles weren’t present. 

Yet for casual fans, reeling off career statistics—unless we’re dealing with home run totals and sluggers—can be an arduous task. Plus, the day-to-day greatness at shortstop in New York was overshadowed due to an offensive explosion around the sport. 

From a performance standpoint, October (and November) will be how fans remember Jeter’s on-field ability and star power.

When asked about memorable on-field moments involving the soon-to-be 40-year-old shortstop, it’s no surprise that both Martinez and Gooden referenced postseason moments. For a team that reeled off four World Series titles in five seasons, it probably felt like the regular season was just a warm-up for the postseason.

“I’ll never, ever forget that home run in 1996 against the Orioles,” Gooden said as he searched for a thought. “Jeffrey Maier! That was the name of the kid that caught the ball, right?! Man, that home run really turned around that series and catapulted us to the World Series against Atlanta. Most people don’t remember, but that was off Armando Benitez. At that time, he was throwing really hard. Not many hitters had enough power to take him the other way.” 

Four years later, Jeter—owner of a .465 career slugging percentage in the postseason—launched an even bigger home run on the biggest stage.

“First pitch of the game off Bobby Jones,” Martinez said, referencing Game 4 of the 2000 World Series.

“That hit basically won the World Series. Our dugout blew up, knowing how much momentum that just gave us. Meanwhile, the Mets were deflated. I knew there was no chance we would lose the series when that ball left Jeter’s bat.” 

At the end of the 2014 season, the leadership, jokes and big-game ability will depart the Yankees dugout. When Jeter announced his plans to retire after the season, some were surprised at the timing of his decision. 

Much like everything about his 19-year career, Jeter was able to keep a monumental decision quiet until he decided to make it public.

“He had been talking about it all offseason, but only to select people,” Martinez said. “I live close to him in Tampa. Every time I saw him he mentioned that it was possible, but it wasn’t until a few weeks before that he actually told me and a couple of close friends.”

Gooden wasn’t aware of Jeter’s thought process but thought the announcement was unique and perfect for his former teammate.

“It fits him and the way he’s done things for 20 years in baseball,” Gooden said. “You think you would have an idea of how Jeter would go out, but he kept everything close and did it in his own way. I think it’s great the way he announced it.”

Writers and analysts can opine on Jeter’s career, spanning from on-field success to off-the-field persona, but the thoughts and feelings of former teammates resonate much louder than any column an outsider could type or monologue a broadcaster could create.

Over the next 162 games, Jeter’s story will write its final chapter. Much like the rest of the book, it will be a unique blend of ability, leadership, privacy and memorable moments.

Dwight Gooden and Tino Martinez joined Church & Dwight to announce a multi-year, multi-category sponsorship agreement with Major League Baseball Properties making Arm & Hammer and OxiClean “The Official Laundry Detergent and Stain Remover of MLB.”

All quotes were obtained firsthand. Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

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For young, emerging superstars, contracts and earning power often become a combination of risk, reward and timing. For Mike Trout, the stars aligned in the form of a $144.5 million contract extension from the Los Angeles Angels, setting the once-in-a-generation all-around baseball genius up for now and later.

The news, per Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, sent shock waves through the baseball community late on Friday evening.

With the ink still drying on Miguel Cabrera’s $248 million extension, Trout earned his own payday, re-writing the narrative and record books for players with limited service time. According to Gonzalez’s source, the deal will ensure Trout is baseball’s highest-paid player relative to service time at every juncture of the breakdown.

At first glance, Trout’s payday sets him up for life. For the average fan, the idea of making $144.5 million is ludicrous and a life-changing decision. 

Yet, by eschewing year-to-year arbitration dances with the Angels, Trout forfeited the right to hit free agency at the age of 26. Had the dynamic, two-way center fielder declined this offer, played out his initial contract and hit free agency in 2018, the richest contract in professional sports would have likely been waiting for him. 

Despite the allure of becoming the first $350 or $400 million athlete in history, Trout had to take this deal, even if it meant delaying that inevitable trip to the land of suitors, blank check books and impetuous owners looking to make a splash. 

Why?

Risk, reward and timing.

While any open-minded baseball observer can project what Trout can become and accomplish over the next handful of years, there’s no way of knowing what will definitely occur. With injuries or a young, unforeseen decline hit, potential earning power could be curtailed in a significant way.

Consider this: From 2005-2008—during what were his first four full big league seasons—the American League‘s best center fielder hit 107 home runs, stole 115 bases and was worth 24.6 WAR. Over that span, only three players—Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez—were more valuable, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Looking back, it would have been easy to project Grady Sizemore for riches in free agency. That, of course, never happened. Injuries derailed what looked to be the start of a Hall of Fame career. Now, years after those star-level seasons, Sizemore is attempting to re-write his story in Boston on a $750,000 base salary.

To be fair, Sizemore wasn’t Trout. Trout owns 20.3 WAR before his age-22 season starts, while Sizemore just began to ascend and take off at the age Trout is now. Still, great young players don’t always have a linear trek to immortality. 

By signing the deal now, Trout is rewarded for what he’s done, while attempting to improve without the worry of a future deal hanging over him.  

Assuming baseball’s best player doesn’t become a “what if?” story for years to come, Trout’s career should unfold with an array of accolades and MVP awards. By the time he does hit the free-agent market at 29, unimaginable future earnings will still be possible.

By signing this deal, Trout eliminated the theoretical 12-year, $400 million deal from coming across his agent’s desk in 2018.  

That has now been replaced by two headline-making possibilities: The six-year, $144.5 million pact and a future deal—factoring in baseball’s burgeoning revenue streams and inflation—that could be worth an annual salary of $40 million. 

Essentially, Trout traded in the chance to cash in on his talent once for the opportunity to do it twice before the age of 30. Even if you believe he gave the Angels a break right now—as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues—riches will be there later.

The five most lucrative contracts in baseball history belong to Alex Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez (yes, again), Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano. Take a look at the age each player was the season before signing their respective mega deals. 

At 29, Trout will have the chance to exceed all of those numbers.

Last, but certainly not least for a player without a career at-bat in October, is timing.

By taking the 10-year or “lifetime” pact off the table with the Angels, Trout leaves his options open for the future. Financially, his current franchise should always have the ability to pay him top dollar, but if the New Jersey native wants to flee to greener—or more successful—pastures in 2020, he can do it in his prime. 

At some point, winning becomes a major priority for each player. If Trout wins big in L.A. over the next seven seasons, there’s little reason to believe he would leave for a different market or team.

If the Angels continue to fumble their way through putting a competitive outfit on the field, big-market teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Mets and crosstown Dodgers would all have ample time to clear the books and allocate the necessary funds to land Trout down the line.

By signing this deal, Trout achieved the best possible outcome any young superstar could hope for: Money now, money later, and the ability to re-write his narrative before the age of 30.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout have become the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson of modern baseball debate and conversation. Rarely will analysts utter one without the other. In light of Miguel Cabrera’s record-breaking contract extension, an obvious question emerges: What about Mike Trout? 

No, not about Trout’s contract status. In time, baseball’s best all-around player and the Los Angeles Angels will sort things out, through a long-term agreement or year-to-year arbitration figures. 

Instead, Cabrera’s extension sheds new light on just what a younger—some may argue better—superstar deserves when signing a life-changing deal. If the two-time reigning AL MVP is truly worth a $248 million extension—not set to kick in until 2016—what can Trout command from the Angels? 

To put it bluntly: much, much more.

On Opening Day 2014, Trout will be entering his age-22 season. Cabrera will be swinging his way into the record books during his age-31 season. No matter what, nine years will always separate two different, yet similar stars. Soon, the gap between their salaries will look drastically different. 

The Tigers can cite Cabrera’s hitting genius, maturity and eventual soft-landing spot that the American League’s designated hitter position provides, but baseball experts raised a collective eyebrow when the news broke on Thursday night, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

While the yearly and headache-inducing AL MVP debate is fun, this time Cabrera vs. Trout isn’t about the present. Instead, it’s about future worth, dollars and sense. 

According to Detroit decision-makers—or the wallet of Tigers owner Mike Illitch, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports—Cabrera is going to be worth nearly $300 million over the next 10 years. Furthermore, the deal could be worth over $350 million if vesting options are reached in years 11 and 12 of the pact, per Heyman.

Needless to say, Cabrera was quite thrilled about the deal and staying in Detroit for the next decade:

If Cabrera continues to hit through his 30s, the Tigers will look smart. Still, at some point—just like every great hitter—Cabrera will decline. That’s a reality for the Tigers, this deal and any long-term contract for a player over the age of 30.

According to FanGraphs, Cabrera has been worth $68.4 million to the Tigers over the last two seasons en route to back-to-back MVP trophies. Using that model—along with factoring in increased revenue and inflation—the first few years of this deal could be a boon to Detroit’s bottom line.

Eventually, that won’t be the case.

On the other hand, Mike Trout’s game should only grow, potentially giving the Angels one of the best young players in the history of the sport.

After two sterling seasons in Los Angeles, Trout can easily rebuff any contract overtures unless it makes fiscal sense. After all, if Trout continues to dominate the sport, his year-by-year dances with arbitration—eligible for the first time in 2015—will net the great outfielder significant money before free agency even arrives.

However, if the Angels try to buy out those arbitration years and keep their best player in tow beyond his first year of free-agent eligibility (2018), the process just became more difficult thanks to the Detroit Tigers’ disregard for an important tenet of negotiations in professional sports: Pay for what a player will do, not what he’s done.

Trout himself does not seem overly concerned with getting paid as soon as possible, according to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times:

“It doesn’t matter to me,” said Trout, who signed for $1 million this season but is expected to command well over $100 million in an extension. “Nothing bothers me. I go out there and play, man. I don’t worry about any of that stuff.”

Cabrera has accomplished more than most players. In just two full seasons, Trout has superseded careers of some players. Head-to-head, the difference has been in the eye of the beholder.

Yet, it’s hard to find one reasonable baseball observer who wouldn’t expect Trout to pass (if he hasn’t already) Cabrera in the very near future. FanGraphs’ Oliver Projections sees a major divide in how the two stars will perform over the next five seasons. 

If that’s close to accurate, Trout shouldn’t sign a significant long-term deal for anything less than $300 million. 

Rosenthal used the WAR and value argument in his column on Detroit’s decision, citing that industry sources typically value the cost of a win (in player value, not the standings) between $6 and $8 million. 

Per Rosenthal: “These endless contracts always work the same way — teams pay a premium for the early years, knowing their asset will depreciate over time. The expected value of a win varies from club to club, year to year. One executive, however, said the current number generally is between $6 million and $8 million.”

Using those figures and Oliver Projections, Trout could be worth between $300 and $400 million over the next five seasons. 

Granted, both the Angels and Trout’s representation likely understand and are privy to those same figures. Yet, before this week, no team had ever committed so much money to an older player with two years left on a deal.

The Detroit Tigers didn’t just leave the industry speechless. They gave Trout the leverage to ask for what he’s worth now and what he could be worth in the coming years. If his team balks at the asking price, a 26-year-old Trout will hit the open market in 2018 poised to become the richest player in the history of professional sports.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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When spring training began, Alex Wood was simply trying to put himself in position to make the Atlanta Braves rotation. With Opening Day on the horizon, the 23-year-old has survived a war of attrition to become a central figure on manager Fredi Gonzalez’s staff.

In Atlanta, pitching has gone from a strength to a major concern.

Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are gone for the 2014 season, victims of Tommy John surgery and the unpleasant reality of pitching injuries around the sport. Mike Minor is behind schedule due to offseason surgery. 

On the surface, the Braves have two right-handed pitchers—Julio Teheran and Ervin Santana—on board to occupy top slots in the rotation. The former will toe the rubber on Opening Day, and the latter could be ready by April 9, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

When Mike Minor builds his arm strength up, Atlanta will have starters capable of making fans forget about Medlen and Beachy. 

Yet, in order to reprise a role as a postseason contender, the Braves will need more than just three capable starting pitchers. While a five-man staff of high-ceiling arms would be ideal, Atlanta would likely settle for four, especially in the wake of an injury-plagued camp.

In Wood, a potentially excellent fourth starter could emerge. In fact, as of now, MLB Depth Charts has the second-year lefty penciled in as the No. 2 starter on Gonzalez’s staff.

Based on what he’s done this spring (5 GS, 0.45 ERA, 16/2 SO/BB), it’s well deserved. By entering camp with the mindset of making the rotation, Wood has emerged into a key cog for Atlanta. If he can build upon a stellar 2013 rookie campaign, the Braves may unearth a star amiss the loss of stars. 

During his latest spring training tune-up start, the second-year pitcher shut down the World Series champion Boston Red Sox, allowing just one run over six innings. Along the way, he impressed Gonzalez with his stuff and maturity, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

“Wood knows what he’s doing out there on the mound,” Gonzalez said. “He doesn’t give you many good pitches to hit. And they had a pretty good lineup out there. Especially from the right side. So it was a good test for him at this time of the spring. Woody was outstanding.”

Last season, outstanding wasn’t a strong enough adjective to describe the stuff, performance and production from Wood. Across 31 appearances—including 11 starts—Wood threw 77.2 innings and posted an 8.9 SO/9 rate and 124 ERA+. 

Considering his young age, the strikeout rate and adjusted ERA were particularly impressive.

Among all pitchers with at least 10 starts (eliminating true relief pitchers), Wood’s SO/9 mark ranked 19th in baseball last year. Some names below Wood on that list, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required): Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Matt Moore and Cole Hamels.

To be fair, Wood’s SO/9 mark was enhanced by bullpen work (9.6 SO/9 across 20 relief outings), but the numbers weren’t drastically different during 11 starts (8.7 SO/9 across 56 innings).

With the ability to generate strikeouts at a high rate, Wood could be emerging into a top-tier starting option in front of Atlanta’s eyes. Considering the rash of injuries that’s overshadowed a team coming off a 96-win season, Wood’s emergence is crucial.

Of course, there’s still an unknown element to Wood’s game and trajectory: the ability to handle a full season as a professional starter.

As a second-round pick in the 2012 draft, Wood simply hasn’t had much time to mature and build up innings in the minors. Before last year’s arrival in the big leagues, Wood made a grand total of 24 starts and pitched 114.2 innings in the minors.

Despite that, the words “innings limit” haven’t been uttered in conjunction with Wood’s 2014 season or progression. Yet, after shifting from starting in the minors to a dual role in the majors last year, expecting a 200-inning season out of Wood is too much to ask. Instead, the Braves can hope for their young lefty to give quality innings while he’s fresh. 

By sporting a 124 ERA+ last season, Wood proved that he could do just that. That mark is similar to three other recent young pitchers who bounced from the bullpen to the rotation during their respective age-22 campaigns. 

No, Cy Young Awards didn’t commence for any of those young, comparable starters. But that doesn‘t mean the Braves would be upset if their pitcher turned out to have a career similar to Pineiro (104 victories) or Escobar (25.0 WAR).

When Wood makes his first start of 2014, the Braves will be counting on him more than anyone in the organization likely envisioned. Luckily, the talented pitcher is healthy and capable of pitching at a high level for a team trying to emerge from a crowded NL wild card race.

It’s unfair to say that the 2014 Braves will go as far as Alex Wood takes them. For a team with talented everyday players like Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, the pressure to perform at a high level falls on different shoulders. In the rotation, Ervin Santana is viewed as the savior, not Wood.

Yet, a big season for Wood could make up for the losses of more-heralded arms. Atlanta’s No. 2 starter may not be a household name, but he could become one quickly if the Braves find a way to crack the 90-win plateau this season.

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Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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