Kuzul

The distance between Los Angeles, Calif., and Sydney, Australia, is roughly 7,500 miles or 6,500 nautical miles. For Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, the difference between an $11 million salary in 2013 and a $215 million contract extension is even bigger.

Despite the unique circumstances around Major League Baseball’s Opening Day and Kershaw‘s freshly minted status as the highest-paid arm in the history of the sport, his dominance remains the same. 

In baseball, money seems to change the production and trajectory of stars on a yearly basis. After signing the record-breaking deal in the offseason, Kershaw took the mound at the Sydney Cricket Ground eager to make fans remember him for performance, not salary.

With an excellent game (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 SO, 1 BB), the 26-year-old lefty did just that. Kershaw toyed with the Arizona Diamondbacks and lifted the Dodgers to the first of what should be many wins during the 2014 season. 

The contract and status as the best pitcher in the sport will follow Kershaw throughout the season, but don’t expect the added pressure, expectations or dollar figure to change the once-in-a-generation talent.

That was evident during his last frame in Australia. When Dodgers manager Don Mattingly walked to the mound to remove his ace from the game, Kershaw bristled.

On March 22, the team can’t push its most important player past the 101-pitch mark. Surely Kershaw understood why he was being removed from the game, but it didn’t matter.

As a competitor and staff leader, he wanted to continue mowing down Arizona’s lineup. 

After posting an unsightly 9.20 ERA across 14.2 spring training innings, Kershaw found fastball command and featured his typical filthy array of curveballs and sliders against a hapless and confounded Diamondbacks lineup.

Despite the spring struggles, Mattingly didn’t panic or show any concern during the Cactus League slate, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

Good thing is, it’s Spring Training, that’s why we’re here. He had the same kind of spring last year. He has a level of expectation of always being good. I don’t have a problem with that. He expects to be in midseason form, and we keep working toward that. He gets frustrated. That’s why we love him.

Among the great qualities Kershaw possesses on the mound—velocity, command, work ethic, drive, stamina—none supersedes his desire to compete, win and perform at the highest level possible. 

One game into the 2014 season, the 2013 version of Kershaw was on display.

Last season, on the path to a third consecutive ERA title, he had 17 games of at least 6.2 innings pitched and allowing one or fewer earned runs. As you would imagine, that was more than any starter in baseball by a wide margin. 

As the season progresses, expect a slew of double-digit strikeout and low walk totals from a pitcher who has sported a 4.20 SO/BB since the start of the 2011 season, per Baseball-Reference.

In the season opener, Kershaw merely posted a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For him, that’s a typical outing. For others, it’s a career day.

Last year, he had 12 outings of at least seven strikeouts and no more than one walk, tying Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez for the league lead, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Since the start of the 2011 season, Kershaw has pitched 29 games of equal performance. 

On Opening Day, the country was different, and the field and surface were foreign. 

But when the bell rang, nothing changed for a starter on the verge of a rare career. For Kershaw, the opening tilt in Sydney might as well have been an innocuous June start against the Padres in San Diego.

That, more than seven strikeouts or run-suppressing pitching, is what stood out. 

As 2014 recorded its first chapter, the narrative read much like the story of 2013 when it came to Kershaw‘s performance. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher on the National League‘s best team. After a 92-win season, trip to the NLCS and Cy Young campaign for the dominant southpaw, expectations were set to be sky high for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014.

That was before the team handed Kershaw a seven-year, $215 million contract extension during the offseason.

Now, with the most expensive arm in the history of the sport and a payroll over $200 million, anything short of a World Series appearance and start-by-start dominance from Kershaw will be a major disappointment for Dodgers fans.

Don’t expect that type of reaction at Chavez Ravine this season. Although the success of Kershaw and the Dodgers are separate, winning is clearly intertwined. 

If Kershaw continues to dominate the sport, Los Angeles will win baseball games. If the Dodgers offense provides the lefty with adequate run support, another eye-popping season will commence for one of the best young pitchers the game has ever seen. 

On the path to greatness, Kershaw‘s career has begun to unfold alongside the best to ever toe the rubber in any generation. 

Among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched—allowing long-time relievers like Mariano Rivera the chance to be part of the discussion—Kershaw‘s ERA+ of 146 is the seventh best in baseball history, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

At face value, that statistic is amazing. Yet, when considering the names below him on the list—Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Koufax—it becomes startling. 

That dominance hasn’t been a product of luck or happenstance. Kershaw‘s ability to dominate and overpower hitters has been evident by a career strikeout rate of 9.2 K/9. With 1,206 career strikeouts under his belt, Kershaw ranks ninth in punch-outs among pitchers through their respective age-25 campaigns. 

Factor in durability—five straight years of 30-plus starts—and it’s easy to see why the Dodgers were comfortable allotting $215 million to the ascending ace. 

Now, the fun begins.

As Kershaw traverses through his prime and gigantic contract, expectations will only rise. With two NL Cy Young’s under his belt, baseball fans know how great he’s been. Over the next few years—starting in 2014—a new Kershaw watch will begin: The path to all-time greatness.

On an outing-by-outing basis, fans will come to expect overwhelming dominance. Beyond the causal observer, projections systems and analysts will tout the best pitcher in baseball as a lock for 20-plus wins and excellence across statistical categories. 

If Kershaw is sweating the expectations, he’s not showing it yet. 

According to Jon Weisman of Dodger Insider, the 26-year-old lefty is ready for the increased expectations and doesn’t see the negative to the hype surrounding his game and fame:

I don’t think there’s a negative. I think it’s how you look at it. Obviously, there’s gonna be a lot of expectations as it should be, if your salary’s out there and you’re one of the top players in the game, you’re gonna be expected to be one of the best players in the game. That’s fine with me. I look forward to those expectations and look forward to trying to live up to them.

Those expectations won’t just follow Kershaw in 2014.

PECOTA—an acronym for Baseball Prospectus’ Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm—is notoriously hard to impress. When preseason win projections arrive annually, the projection system routinely groups teams within 10 games of .500.

It’s very hard to stand out from the crowd in the eyes of PECOTA. Yet, as Matt Snyder of CBS Sports pointed out, the projection system has the Dodgers slated for a 98-win campaign in 2014. 

Led by Kershaw, the Dodgers are expected to dominate the NL West and arrive back to October as one of the few teams in the league with a legitimate chance to make a trip to the World Series.

As baseball fans have seen over the years, October baseball can be very, very difficult to project and predict. It’s safe to say that the best team doesn’t always win it all. With variance separating similar teams and short series superseding the marathon nature of the 162-game regular season, October can take favorites and render them disappointments. 

For the Dodgers and Kershaw, it’s hard to imagine a season without a trip to October. 

Yet, many fans will call this season a disappointment if Kershaw—after another Cy Young campaign—isn’t the winning pitcher in a championship-clinching World Series game.

Those expectations are unfair and over the top.

Instead, expect the following criteria to be met: From Opening Day through the end of the regular season, Kershaw and the Dodgers will dominate the NL West, win 95-plus games and give fans a glimpse at this generation’s best pitcher on a weekly basis. 

Using that baseline, Kershaw and the Dodgers will live up to expectations. If October turns into a coronation for baseball’s most expensive roster, they could exceed them with a championship parade in Los Angeles.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jimmy Rollins has been a member of the Philadelphia Phillies organization since the second round of the 1996 amateur draft. If some members of the team’s front office have their way, a nearly 18-year tenure could be coming to an awkward close. 

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Phillies believe it might be time to part with the 2007 National League MVP. 

This news comes less than a week after Rollins sat on the bench for three straight Grapefruit League contests. Manager Ryne Sandberg offered “no comment” when initially asked for his reasoning, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

If the Phillies truly want to move on from Rollins, it won’t be easy. 

With $11 million due to the 35-year-old shortstop in 2014, it will take a team willing to add significant payroll late in spring training or Philadelphia’s ownership eating a large chunk of the money still owed. Furthermore, a one-year, $11 million option for 2015 will automatically be in play if Rollins makes 434 plate appearances this season.

As a 10-and-5 rights player (10 MLB seasons, last five with the same team), Rollins can invoke a no-trade clause to veto any deal. With just 60 hits separating the veteran shortstop from the top spot in Phillies franchise history, it’s unlikely to happen now. 

When broached about a possible deal by CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, Rollins didn’t seem keen on the idea.

“I don’t know,” Rollins said. “If we’re in absolutely last place with nowhere to go and change is obviously on the horizon, then at that point I’d think about it. But anything short of a complete disaster, I’m wearing red and white pinstripes.”

These situations, however, have a funny way of working themselves out.

If the Phillies can find a trade partner and Rollins agrees to leave the only team he’s ever known, a move could commence.

In return, the Phillies could look for outfield depth, a veteran bullpen arm or a young starting pitcher. 

Here are Jimmy Rollins trade scenarios that would make the most sense for the Phillies.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Begin Slideshow

When it comes to roster building, depth is only good until a team is forced to use it. For the Oakland Athletics, injuries to starting pitchers may dismantle a team that was ticketed for October baseball and championship aspirations.

According to John Hickey of Bay Area News Group, the Athletics could start the season with 60 percent of their projected starting rotation—Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Scott Kazmir—on the disabled list. 

When it comes to Parker, he won’t be there for the entire 2014 season. According to Jane Lee of MLB.com, the 25-year-old right-hander will undergo Tommy John surgery next Tuesday. This will be the second major arm surgery of Parker’s young career, leaving his future in doubt.

For his team, the immediate future is just as cloudy. Coming off back-to-back AL West titles, the Athletics had a busy offseason in preparation for a meaningful 2014 campaign and trip back to the postseason.

Now, those plans are on hold.

In the loaded AL West, the Athletics can’t afford to lose projected starting pitchers and still win the 90-95 games necessary to put themselves in true contention. Texas is too talented and teams like Los Angeles, Seattle and Houston all improved during the winter. On a day-to-day basis, wins will be harder than ever to achieve for this A’s team. 

Furthermore, the American League is loaded. Outside of Houston, Minnesota and Chicago, a case can be made for any team in the league competing for a postseason berth. In order to qualify for the AL postseason in 2014, luck is almost as important as talent.

With less than two full weeks until Opening Day, luck is alluding the Athletics.

Unlike the Braves recent acquisition of Ervin Santana, don’t expect Oakland general manager Billy Beane to scour the open market for a veteran to save his young, injured staff. Even if Santana was still available, this franchise would be more apt to solve problems internally. 

Yet, despite pitching depth in the organization—Drew Pomeranz, Jesse Chavez, Michael Ynoa, Phil Humber—it’s too much to ask manager Bob Melvin to replicate the production and talent of Jarrod Parker.  

When Bartolo Colon was allowed to bolt to New York in free agency, the message to Parker was loud and clear: It’s your rotation now.

That message came with good merit. Over the last two years—comprising Parker’s first two big league seasons—the young righty has been among the most consistent and effective starters in the entire sport. 

Over the span, only 25 starters have thrown at least 375 innings, pitched to an ERA of 3.75 or better and allowed less than 1.0 HR/9. The combination of durability, run-suppressing pitching and the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark is rare, even among high-quality arms.

In fact, the list of names below Parker is almost as impressive as the names above him, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Lance Lynn, Justin Masterson, Ricky Nolasco and Jon Lester all have put up ERA marks higher than Parker’s 3.73 over the last two seasons. 

To be fair, it’s easy to overreact in light of major spring training injuries to projected aces. The narrative in March often is flipped and reversed by the All-Star break. With time to reassess the roster, it’s possible, if not likely, that the A’s could overcome Parker’s injury.

Three years ago, the St. Louis Cardinals lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery. That October—with Wainwright rooting on an upstart wild card team from the dugout—the Cardinals won it all in Tony La Russa’s final season.

Of course, Parker’s the biggest name, but not the only name. 

With Griffin and Kazmir also banged up, the Athletics will need to find bulk innings from their pitching depth. Organizational depth is built for times like these, but losing three potential 200-inning arms is rare and costly.

In fact, when you consider that Kazmir was signed to effectively replace Colon’s production, the Athletics are about to enter a season with the tall task of re-allocating 587.1 innings from last year’s staff. 

Even with a deep bullpen—designed in part to ease the burden of innings from young, unproven arms—the A’s will be challenged to survive over the long haul.

In a perfect world, Oakland’s offense will soar to the top of league rankings in runs scored, pitchers like Jesse Chavez and Drew Pomeranz will surprise and Sonny Gray will take a leap from potential AL All-Star to Cy Young contender.

The blueprint for overcoming this type of setback was illustrated by the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, but even that took a miraculous September run to capture a spot in the postseason tournament. 

With the American League poised to be a daily grind and as competitive as any year in recent memory, the A’s can’t survive 60 percent of their rotation being out for an extended period. It would be a fool’s errand to call a Billy Beane team hopeless, but the difference between watching the postseason at home and competing for a World Series is slim.

Jarrod Parker’s injury is likely a sign that it’s just not the year in Oakland.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Barring major spring training injuries, the 2014 Detroit Tigers profiled as the team to beat in the American League Central. Yet, if Jose Iglesias—last year’s AL Rookie of the Year candidate—misses significant time, the Tigers actually could be an even bigger lock to reach the postseason.

Of course, that’s assuming that Detroit uses its financial muscle to lure free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew off the street and onto the Comerica Park diamond to replace a now-injured Iglesias. 

The news and accompanying Drew-to-Detroit theory was offered by ESPN and Sirius XM baseball analyst Jim Bowden. Outside of media work, the former Reds and Nationals executive is familiar with front-office thinking around the sport.

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick later confirmed these reports, as it looks like the All-Star break could be the earliest Iglesias returns:

With shin issues sidelining the Tigers infielder, manager Brad Ausmus thinks reinforcements could be necessary, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.

“Depending on how long he’s going to be out, we may or may not need two shortstops,” Ausmus said. 

In this case, the connection is easy to make. Detroit is a legitimate World Series candidate, with or without a high-caliber shortstop. Yet, after trading for Iglesias’ dynamic glove, youth and upside last summer, the team was prepared to watch the 24-year-old infielder graduate into a dynamic two-way player in 2014 and beyond.   

With those plans on hold for the majority of 2014, Drew’s free-agent plight can become a blessing in disguise for a veteran team eager to win a championship before the roster ages and decays into a mediocre outfit. 

Drew isn’t a difference-making player, but he represents an upgrade from the young, unproven Iglesias. 

At this point, swapping Drew for Iglesias actually would bring the veteran Tigers closer to the World Series ring that has alluded them over the course of a highly-successful run atop the AL Central.  

During Drew’s eight-year career, the left-handed hitting shortstop has averaged 11 home runs per season and posted a .329 on-base percentage. While those numbers aren’t eye-opening, they are much more prolific than what the light-hitting Iglesias did with the bat during a 294-game minor league apprenticeship. 

Prior to last year’s call up in Boston, Iglesias owned a career minor league OPS of .622. Barring an unexpected uptick in offensive production, Detroit’s future shortstop will rack up value almost solely with his dynamic glove. On the other hand, Drew is more of a complete, all-around shortstop.  

Not only is Drew a clearly better offensive player, Fangraphs’ defensive numbers actually painted him as the better shortstop last season. Despite the highlight plays from the young and athletic Iglesias, Drew had a tremendous defensive season in Boston. 

While the average fan might call Drew a defensive downgrade, the numbers refute that notion. 

Over the long haul, the Tigers would be foolish to contemplate keeping Drew in favor of Iglesias. Over the next four or five years, Detroit could have a cheap, ascending option at shortstop, allowing the front office to spend lavishly on veterans like Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. 

If a contract discussion with Drew’s agent—Scott Boras—does commence, expect a one-year deal to be as far as Detroit would be willing to go for a shortstop stopgap. Blocking Iglesias’ path and future in Detroit makes little sense.

However, with the Royals and Indians owning the potential to crack the 90-win plateau and challenge an injury-plagued Tigers team in 2014, general manager Dave Dombrowski and owner Mike Ilitch can’t sit around and wait for Iglesias to heal.

For some teams, 2015 and 2016 represent windows to contention and championship baseball. In Detroit, 30-or-over stars are the norm and potential big-money free-agent cases hang over the fate of this franchise.

From Torii Hunter (38) to Victor Martinez (35) to Joe Nathan (39), the Tigers aren’t built for tomorrow. In fact, at Comerica Park, there is no tomorrow.

Max Scherzer—the reigning AL Cy Young winner—is set to hit the open market next winter, perhaps carrying a price tag of $150-plus million. Miguel Cabrera—attempting to win three consecutive AL MVP crowns—could do the same after 2016, with an outside chance of scoring the biggest contract in the history of the sport. 

Through a combination of offense, veteran acumen, underrated defense and desperation for a place to play baseball in 2014, Stephen Drew represents the perfect antidote to what ails the Tigers heading into the final weeks of spring training. 

If Drew simply held the fort and kept Detroit afloat at shortstop, this fit would be obvious. But a stroke of luck has allowed the Tigers the avenue to pursue a shortstop better equipped to help win a title in 2014. 

Iglesias will be the better player over the next handful of years, but Drew is better now.

For the Tigers, that’s all that should matter. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When the New York Yankees take the field in Panama for an exhibition series in Mariano Rivera’s native country, the shadow of their former closer will hang over a bullpen that’s expected to replace him during the 2014 MLB season.

As long as Rivera is seen around the team, the Yankees can reminisce about the dominant bullpens anchored by the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history.

But when the Yankees depart Panama and enter the home stretch of spring training, reality will set in for a team with World Series aspirations: Rivera is gone forever, leaving a talented Yankees lineup and starting rotation to wonder if leads and games will be lost at an alarming rate.

To be fair, the Yankees have some experience traversing through a season—or at least the majority of one—without Rivera.

In May 2012, in what could have been Rivera’s final season, the then 42-year-old injured his knee while shagging fly balls during batting practice in Kansas City. With Rafael Soriano replacing Rivera, the Yankees bullpen thrived en route to an AL East title.

That season—along with a look at some of the most valuable relief-pitching campaigns since Rivera’s 1996 emergence—paints an interesting picture for Yankees fans to consider: Rivera’s greatness wasn’t rooted in how dominant he was on a year-to-year basis, but rather that he was dominant on a year-to-year basis.

As referenced, Rivera’s best years comprise many spots on the top 20 relief seasons of the last 18 years, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Yet, luminaries such as Keith Foulke, Gabe White, Rafael Betancourt, Octavio Dotel, Steve Reed and Byung-Hyun Kim are littered throughout the list.

The Yankees didn’t open each year knowing they would receive the most valuable season among all relievers. Instead, they knew that consistent excellence would be there in the ninth. That allowed an ease to infiltrate the other areas of the staff, specifically the setup men.

More than anything, that’s now gone.

With David Robertson set to inherit Rivera’s role in the ninth, extra attention will be placed upon the 28-year-old strikeout artist with an AL All-Star appearance and a Cy Young vote under his belt.

Based on his track record (2.76 ERA since 2008) and effusive praise from Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon, there’s little reason to expect a huge drop-off from Rivera, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

“I think [Robertson] is outstanding,” Maddon said. “He has a combo of pitches with his cutter and curve and his pitches really explode through the strike zone. He gets righties and lefties out, so there are no platoon advantages against him [like Rivera, his cutter makes him particularly effective versus lefties].”

However, with Robertson evacuating his former setup role to move to the ninth, the entire bullpen must be reshuffled to accommodate the role changes in the late innings. It’s there that the Yankees have question marks.

If the Yankees are going to count on arms such as Dellin Betances and Matt Thornton, improvements will be necessary for both to succeed.

With Betances, command and control represent the biggest hurdle for New York’s big right-handed flame thrower. Across 641.1 minor league innings, Betances has posted a 10.1 SO/9 mark. Considering that most of those innings came as he progressed as a starter—when conserving energy for late innings is vital—his ability to miss bats as a reliever could be eye-opening.

Of course, there’s the issue with putting the ball where he wants it. During that same span, Betances has posted a 4.9 BB/9 ratio. For every two strikeouts generated, a man has been put on base for free.

The talent is there for the 25-year-old to give the Yankees excellent innings, but control will be key.

When Matt Thornton arrived as a free-agent signing this winter, much less projection was needed. Since debuting in 2004, the now-37-year-old lefty has posted a 127 ERA+ and struck out more than a batter per inning (9.2 SO/9).

Despite the sustained success, it’s hard not to call Thornton a pitcher in decline. Over the last four years, Thornton’s SO/9 mark has plummeted from 12.0 in 2010 to a measly 6.2 in 2013. If the trend continues in 2014 and 2015, Thornton’s two-year, $7 million deal will be a sunk cost on the Yankees’ payroll sheet.

If there’s a name to count on ahead of Robertson, look to setup man Shawn Kelley. Despite a 4.39 ERA in 2013, the 29-year-old has an ability to miss bats that places him alongside some of the most dominant relievers in the game.

With so much attention cast upon New York’s $503 million offseason, uncertainty within an old and fragile infield, Alex Rodriguez‘s suspension saga, the battle for the No. 5 starter job, Masahiro Tanaka’s arrival and Derek Jeter’s retirement announcement, it’s easy to overlook this bullpen during spring training.

When April arrives, that no longer will be the case.

If a few blown leads become backbreaking losses, fans will clamor for a veteran arm to save the day and the season.

Perhaps that arm is Andrew Bailey, the former Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox closer signed to rehab and possibly enter the mix in August, per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. Or, like many great bullpens over the years, the Yankees could unearth gems to dominate the late innings.

By September, a clear picture will have developed. For now, don’t expect greatness or overwhelming consistency. Instead, a good, not great, bullpen will likely emerge, led by strikeout arms such as Robertson, Kelley and Betances.

Are you worried about the Yankees bullpen?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Justin Verlander is healthy and on the path back to reclaiming his throne as the top pitcher in the American League.

For now, that much was clear during his 52-pitch outing against the Toronto Blue Jays at Joker Marchant Stadium in Lakeland, Fla. Although it’s too early to surmise or predict another American League Cy Young campaign for the 31-year-old righty, Verlander looked comfortable and in rhythm in just under four innings of work.

That comfort and rhythm eluded Verlander for most of the 2013 season. From Opening Day through the end of August, the former American League MVP sported an uncharacteristically high ERA of 3.73.

Then, almost instantly, Verlander transformed back into the stopper of old. From that moment through the end the of Detroit’s ALCS appearance against the Boston Red Sox, the Tigers‘ tenured ace threw 63 innings of dominant baseball, posting a 1.57 ERA and 79 strikeouts.  

Those issues—along with the subsequent turnaround—were overshadowed during the offseason when it was revealed that Verlander needed core surgery. According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, Verlander believes the injury to his core last season led to mechanical issues that took nearly a full season to uncover.

Just overall last year, there was a tilt in my shoulders. I look back at pitches I made in the past and right when I’m about to fire to throw home, everything’s parallel. My shoulders are almost parallel, my arm’s up behind my head, and everything’s firing on a parallel plane. Last year, if you were to take a snapshot, there’s a lot of pitches where my lead arm’s up here and I’m firing from down here, almost below my neck.

With the procedure in the mirror, Verlander’s first spring start was scheduled for last week. Yet as the Florida weather turned to rain, it was pushed back to this week against the Blue Jays. 

If you didn’t know about Verlander’s surgery, lackluster five-month stretch in 2013 or mechanical issues that threatened to curtail a successful Tigers team last year, those facts wouldn’t have been evident when watching him pitch against Toronto.

From the opening pitch of the game—a strike to Jose Reyes—to a lazy fly ball to left field to a broken-bat ground ball back to the mound, Verlander breezed through the first inning, allowing only a single. His control, during the first live competition since the 2013 ALCS, was slightly off, but far from alarming. 

In the second, Verlander allowed a walk to start the frame. From there, defense took over in the form of a caught-stealing attempt and easy out on a ground ball to shortstop. 

During Verlander’s third inning—his final full frame of the day—the rhythm and fastball life seemed to return to what you would expect from one of baseball’s most accomplished arms. Although the radar gun didn’t reveal any 95-plus MPH fastballs, Verlander was sitting at 88-94 for his outing. Much like during the best games of his career, he had more life on the fastball as the outing progressed.

Yet, despite the ability to limit runs and feature velocity during a strikeout in the third inning, it was an at-bat by Toronto’s Maicer Izturis in the fourth inning that should stay with Tigers fans.

Although the 10-pitch battle curtailed Verlander’s outing before he was able to complete four frames, the at-bat showed that stamina isn’t an issue for the expensive righty. 

After breezing through the first three innings—using only 38 of his allotted 50-55 pitches for the day—Izturis fought to start the fourth, coercing Verlander into his first double-digit pitch at-bat of the season.  
The result was a seemingly innocuous fly ball to left field, but it meant more to both Verlander and the Tigers. 

After surgery, a difficult season and admitted struggles with mechanics, Izturis‘ at-bat was the moment where a rusty Verlander could have been expected to falter, leaving a pitch over the plate and allowing an extra-base hit.

When it didn’t occur, Verlander’s successful day was all but done. 

There are still major hurdles for Verlander to clear in order to become the consistent and dominant starter of old. If the mechanics of today can’t be repeated during his next start, concern will arise. If soreness or comfort issues return before Opening Day, the Tigers’ perch atop the AL Central will be in question.

In Lakeland, the Tigers and manager Brad Ausmus will take it day-by-day with their $20-million arm.

For now: So far, so good.

If Verlander can build off this and stay healthy into April, there’s little reason to believe he won’t soon return to the top of the AL pitching ranks. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Predicting potential head-to-head battles in the World Series has never been more difficult. From smart, forward-thinking front-office minds to revenue sharing to the addition of extra wild cards, more teams than ever before will open the season with an eye on October baseball.

As spring training marches on, narratives will unfold and predictions will begin to take shape across the media landscape.

While the Bleacher Report MLB team can’t wait for Opening Day, it’s never too early to look ahead to the best month on the calender: October.

Using a formula of over/under win odds, spring training results and gut feeling, a list of potential World Series matchups has emerged, ripe for critique and criticism. If any of these come to fruition—which really should happen—this piece will look prescient. 

If an unlisted matchup headlines late-October, well, I’ll expect the comment section to remind me over and over again.

As you’ll see, the National League is a top-heavy, three-team race for supremacy. In the American League, as many as eight teams look talented enough to reach the World Series.

With Opening Day on the horizon, here’s a glimpse at how the 2014 MLB journey could end. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Over/under projections courtesy of Bovoda. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Begin Slideshow

The most valuable player on the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals wasn’t Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday or Allen Craig. Instead, second baseman Matt Carpenter, in what was his first full season in the majors, led the eventual NL champions with a 6.6 WAR.

Regardless of your definition of value—using old-school or new-school numbers—the Cardinals are wise to award a contract extension to one of the best offensive players in baseball.

In a negotiation first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and later confirmed by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Cardinals and Carpenter have agreed to a long-term deal to buy out arbitration and free-agent seasons for the 28-year-old infielder.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the six-year deal will be worth $52 million and break down as follows:  

As Heyman pointed out, the Atlanta Braves‘ Andrelton Simmons can be used as a contract comparison for St. Louis’ latest long-term commitment. Both have similar service time and posted WAR marks above 6.0 in 2013. Yet due to the nature of their respective games, the comparisons should end there.

Simmons was paid because of outstanding defensive ability. Carpenter’s value is a no-brainer to the Cardinals because of a wide-ranging offensive skill set that could set the table in the lineup for years to come. 

Last year, Carpenter posted a .392 on-base percentage while serving as St. Louis’ primary top-of-the-lineup hitter. That mark was good enough for 12th in baseball, ahead of names (subscription required) such as Troy Tulowitzki, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. 

Along the path to that stellar OBP, Carpenter led the NL in hits (199), runs (126) and doubles (55). Those numbers—and stature atop league leaderboards—are impressive on the surface. When digging deeper, they become special.

Across the history of baseball, only eight infielders have posted individual seasons of at least 125 runs, 50 doubles and 190 hits. Alone, those numbers aren’t anything more than very good. Together, they form a rare combination that’s been achieved by some of the best players to ever step on a field. 

Outside of Odell Hale, that chart is comprised of players already enshrined in Cooperstown (Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer), a borderline great (Todd Helton) and two of the greatest players of the past generation (Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez).

Referring to Carpenter as an infielder, rather than a third baseman, is key to determining his value both in the present and future.

To be fair, much of Carpenter’s worth in 2013 was derived from playing second base. In 2014, he’ll move to third base—his natural defensive position—potentially dampening his offensive dominance among his peers.

For what it’s worth, the Cardinals’ versatile infielder thinks the move back to third base will allow him to focus most of his attention on a burgeoning offensive game, per Chuck King of The Associated Press (via Yahoo! Sports).

“It’s nice to be able to come in and focus on your offense — not necessarily that you don’t think about defense, but you are not trying to learn a new spot,” Carpenter said.

The hot corner tends to be more of a power position, littered with middle-of-the-order bats like Adrian Beltre, Josh Donaldson and Pedro Alvarez. In the midst of a breakout offensive season, Carpenter only hit 11 home runs. On the surface, his lack of power could be thought of as a detriment to playing third base as a full-time position. 

Yet as forward-thinking baseball fans know, offensive value and slugging percentage isn’t based solely on raw power or the ability to hit the ball over the outfield fence.

As noted, Carpenter gets on base at a high clip. Regardless of position, a .392 on-base percentage will rank near the top of any list.

Yet despite only hitting 11 home runs, Carpenter provided 73 extra-base hits for the Cardinals lineup last summer. The 55 doubles and seven triples combined to form an excellent .481 slugging percentage for the soon-to-be third baseman. 

To put that into perspective, the average third baseman posted a .411 slugging percentage in 2013, per ESPN. Carpenter may not hit 30 home runs or post a slugging percentage of over .500, but he did smash 73 extra-base hits and accepted 70 walks.

Despite the excellence and offensive firepower throughout baseball in 2014, the combination of walk rate and extra-base-hit prowess is rare.

When looking deeper into last year’s third base crop, only two players achieved as much success with plate discipline and extra-base power: Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria.

Absent from that short list (subscription required): David Wright, Beltre, Donaldson, Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Headley. 

Over the years, the Cardinals have shown loyalty to homegrown success stories. From Molina to Wainwright to Craig, St. Louis’ front office hasn’t been shy about handing out lucrative, long-term deals to players cultivated in the system. 

It’s fair to wonder if 2013 was simply a career year at the right time for Carpenter, if he can develop 20-plus home run power or if his early 30s will feature a decline as his salary inflates.

But the Cardinals also deserve the benefit of the doubt for recognizing the offensive star they have in their infield, regardless of position.

If Matt Carpenter took his talent to the open market, this deal wouldn’t come close to the top offer received by his agent. For that number, the Cardinals could have a star for the next six seasons.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Atlanta Braves—a mid-market team on the verge of becoming a large-market team with a new ballpark—spent the winter locking up young, ascending stars. Along the path to securing future cost certainty, the Braves inadvertently changed the business structure of large-market foes.

For years, large-market teams have used deep pockets to fill holes—replace aging veterans and re-shape short-term goals. 

That strategy—thanks to teams like the Braves using John Hart’s model for sustained success, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com—is becoming less and less feasible as front-office minds survey the landscape of the league and lock up young players years before free agency.

In big markets, the edict is now simple: adapt or perish.

Unlike in the past, ready-made, franchise-changing options are becoming less and less prevalent on the open market. Even when very good players arrive, the cost of business is so high because value becomes inflated. 

In order to survive, big-market teams must adopt the strategy of locking up their own young stars, delivering cost certainty and restoring order to the idea of payroll advantage. 

Last year, according to CBS Sports, the 10 largest payrolls in baseball belonged to the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Tornoto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals. 

Clearly, a list like that is fluid. In 2014, after spending during the winter, the Texas Rangers will likely supplant one of last year’s big spenders. Regardless of which teams are the top spenders in a given season, their advantage has been minimized because of the rush to lock up potential stars before free agency.

Over the last two years, the following players have eschewed free agency for lucrative, long-term deals: Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, Homer Bailey, Freddie Freeman, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, David Wright and Brett Gardner. 

That group ranges from some of the best in the game to solid contributors, yet the same characteristic accompanied the entire group: A trip to the open market never commenced.

To be fair, large-market teams are generally spending to win—that means spending on veteran, high-priced talent. Often, teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies will trade away young prospects before they have a chance to make an impact and become potential extension candidates.

Yet, using the top-ten payrolls from 2013, a theme emerges: Each team has extension candidates in the organization.  

The game is changing one extension at a time. This change isn’t new but rather a theory used by the Braves this winter to secure future success.

In fact, the future payroll in New York may have played a large role in why the Braves are so willing to award Freddie Freeman a $135 million deal before his age-24 season. As Joel Sherman pointed out in the New York Post, Freeman was originally set to hit the open market at the conclusion of the 2016 season. 

Coincidentally, Mark Teixeira’s $180 million deal expires after the 2016 season. The Yankees, always in need of left-handed power, would have likely outbid Atlanta for his services.

For teams like the Yankees, Freeman is another name to erase from future free-agent classes. The following chart shows potential free agents over the next three years.  

The list isn’t great now, but will likely worsen as the years go on. Extensions will be handed out, further deflating the market and raising the prices for those who remain.

Furthermore, escalating arbitration costs were once a major detriment to small-market teams. When a player entered his third season, the cost-to-production ratio would begin to shift, forcing teams to auction off their best players in trades.

Now, with forward-thinking front-office executives, that’s becoming less and less likely to happen. 

For the big-market team desperate to win, outside alternatives are becoming impossible to find at a fair price. Forget about an advantage, a case can be made that the business models in New York, Philadelphia and Boston are detrimental to winning.

As salaries continue to rise, the game will continue to change and force owners into finding executives capable of unearthing advantages to win and save money.

For large-market teams looking to restore balance and reclaim an advantage, only one alternative seems feasible: grow young stars, lock them up to reasonable deals and have even more capital to spend on the rare free-agent gem. 

With Mike Trout (potentially) on the market after the 2017 season, the race is on for baseball’s biggest teams to smarten up and save pennies for a run at the increasingly rare free agent worth big years and even bigger dollars.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com