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As play heats up in Arizona and Florida, the start of the regular season moves closer to reality for baseball fans. Yet, despite the calendar inching toward spring, winter isn’t over for some teams.

Offseason activity still exists, especially within free agent circles impacted by draft compensation, lingering trade activity and teams looking to find the missing piece to a complete 25-man roster.

Although we’re finally to the point where play on the field overshadows the rumor mill, the hot stove isn’t totally cool just yet. For more than a handful of teams, upgrades are still available for the right price. 

Over the next four weeks, the rumor mill will churn out narratives, stories and juicy tidbits for fans to devour before the real games arrive. Of those, only some will have real meaning. The others will simply be noise.

The following is an attempt to separate fact from fiction during the busy, frantic days of spring training. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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Earlier today, Bleacher Report had an exclusive opportunity to speak with 19-time American League All-Star and Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr.

Aside from Ripken’s broadcasting work, the former iron man is working with Transitions adaptive lenses, spreading awareness about eyesight problems and encouraging parents to remain diligent with testing their children.

I had the opportunity to represent Bleacher Report in a wide-ranging conversation with Ripken Jr. that touched on his Mt. Rushmore of shortstops, Derek Jeter’s farewell tour, instant replay and the strong AL East. 

Bleacher Report: Derek Jeter recently announced that 2014 would be his final season. You experienced a similar farewell in 2001. What were your thoughts when Jeter made his decision

Ripken Jr.: I was surprised at first, but Derek is a thoughtful person and thinker when it comes to the game. I’m sure he’s ready for this if he came to that decision. I’m interested in talking to him soon to gauge how he’s feeling, both physically and mentally.

B/R: Do you expect him to play well after missing almost all of 2013 due to injury issues?

Ripken Jr.: I do. The decision to announce his future now was healthy. It will allow him to give and pour all his energy out on the final season on the field. I think he watched Mariano Rivera exit the right way and have an excellent season. He probably wants to do something similar.

But I do wonder if he will have second thoughts. If he performs well, I would be curious to see if doubt creeps in about actually retiring.

B/R: Mt. Rushmore has become a popular topic, regardless of subject. Who would be on your Mt. Rushmore of shortstops?

Ripken Jr.: You’re going to make me do this (chuckles)? Alright. Of course, Honus Wagner needs to be part of this because of what he accomplished, but I didn’t see him. I’m not young, but I’m not that old yet. Of the guys I watched, my four favorites would have to be:

Ozzie Smith: I wished that I could emulate him in the field. He was magical at shortstop. I can’t remember a ball he didn’t get to during his prime.

Omar Vizquel: He literally made you leave your mouth open and gasp. During my time in the American League, he was a treat to share the field and the shortstop position with. He took so many risks—diving, flipping the ball behind his back, routes to the ball—yet was so efficient. He was special.

Troy Tulowitzki: He’s the guy now. All the tools—power, speed, arm, defense, strength—are there for him to go down as one of the great shortstops ever. The only question is health. He’s missed some time (151 games missed over the last two seasons), but he’s the best when he’s in there. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. 

Derek Jeter: Probably the best clutch player ever. Offensively, his accomplishments speak for themselves. Three thousand hits, more than 200 home runs and a great batting average.

Defensively, I know there have been some critics. Range and defensive metrics haven’t always touted him as a good defender, but I always saw him make the right play.

I’ll put it this way: Of all the shortstops in history, he’s the one I want out there in Game 7 of the World Series. Put the bat in his hands or hit the ball to him in a one-run game. He’ll make the play to win a championship for you.

B/R: You were one of the first big shortstops, paving the way for guys like Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Tulowitzki. In Boston, Xander Bogaerts is on the path to stardom. Is the big shortstop what teams should be looking for?

Ripken Jr.: Different styles work for different guys. All those guys you mentioned—let’s throw Manny Machado from Baltimore in there since his background is at short—move or moved really well. That’s first. They all have strong arms and range. Clearly, those players provided offense to the position, but I think stature and size is overrated. If you can handle shortstop and hit, teams will find a way to pencil you into the lineup.

B/R: With spring training underway, who is a player you are watching?

Ripken Jr.: I’m interested to see how Manny Machado recovers from his knee injury and how quickly he can get back to Baltimore. Based on last year, we are watching a great player develop. Defense, doubles, quick wrists, power. Machado has it all.

B/R: Machado is part of a deep, talented lineup in one of baseball’s best divisions. How would you handicap the AL East race?

Ripken Jr.: For me, it’s the best division in baseball. In fact, the schedule is unfair to these teams because they have to play each other 18-plus times per season. It’s hard for me to believe that this division won’t have three playoff teams by October, but that’s probably true because they’ll beat up on each other so much during the season.

As for predictions? It’s hard to say, but don’t just give it to New York or Boston. Sure, the Yankees spent money and the Red Sox are the defending champs, but the other three teams—Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore—all have a shot.

Tampa is always in the mix. Even if they need to rely on young players, they find a way to play meaningful games in August and September.

Toronto is due for a better year. Last year, was unfortunate for them. I really thought—and I think they thought—the talent was there to win. It’s still there.

Baltimore is proven now. All those years of losing is in the past. This is a playoff-caliber team for Buck Showalter, especially when you factor in the recent additions of Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez.

B/R: Rule changes, including expanded instant replay and home plate collisions, will be a big theme of the Cactus and Grapefruit League schedule. Are you in favor of the changes?

Ripken Jr.: I’m skeptical of replay. A manager challenge system? That’s football to me. When I think of that type of replay system, I think of the NFL. I don’t love the idea of the responsibility falling on the manager. That just adds to their in-game responsibility.

Don’t get me wrong, I think technology is good for the game. But I’d just like to see corrections made by replay. If it’s obviously wrong, it can be fixed quickly.

Eliminating unnecessary collisions at home plate is a great rule tweak. I’ve always thought that home plate should be treated like second base. Contact is allowed, but the idea of running through someone is just going to lead to injuries. 

During my time, Mike Scioscia was the best at blocking home plate. Because he was so big and strong, runners didn’t want to challenge him by lowering their shoulder. They looked for a way around him or an area of the plate they could swipe. Hopefully, that’s what these plays will look like now.

B/R: Are you still interested in managing or coaching?

Ripken Jr.: I’ll say to you what I’ve always said when asked: I’m open to opportunities. 

Now, does that mean I want to be a manager? It could be, if the time is right. Honestly, I don’t have a strategy to make this happen or a way back into the game. But I’ve been away for long enough to know that I want to be around baseball again. 

B/R: You’re passionate about Transitions. How did you get involved with the company?

Ripken Jr.: It started when my eyesight became an issue. Now I need corrective lenses, and this product is great for both inside and outside use. Beyond that, I never realized the eyesight problem among children. One of four kids suffer from vision problems, but most don’t realize it. Parents need to be diligent about making and attending appointments. 

Final Thoughts

After spending 21 years in the majors—including time in the ’80s, ’90s and 2000s—Ripken’s perspective on how the game is evolving is fascinating.

As expected, the AL East and tall, powerful shortstops peaked the interest of the former two-time AL MVP. If, or when, Manny Machado moves back to shortstop in Baltimore, the division could have two stars cut from the Ripken cloth.

Interestingly, Ripken isn’t sure how replay will work and has doubts on the system in place. Unlike some “old school” analysts, the concern wasn’t over technology but rather allowing managers and challenges to be involved at all. 

The all-time great player once again acknowledged an interest in a full-time gig within baseball. If a team hires Ripken in the near future, a wealth of baseball knowledge will enter an organization. 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In March, it’s common to introduce an opinion of a player or performance by reminding readers that it’s very early, spring training statistics don’t count and the real games are about a month away from reality.

With New York Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, that edict isn’t just necessary—it’s vital.

In Tampa, Fla., Tanaka’s debut was a big deal. In his home country of Japan, a scheduled two-inning outing was a reason to celebrate and watch Grapefruit League baseball in the middle of the night. Clearly, Tanaka’s spring training debut didn’t profile as your ordinary build-up to the regular season.

After spending $175 million—including a $20 million posting fee—to procure the services of Japan’s top pitcher, the Yankees are banking on big things from the 25-year-old righty.

Yet as Ken Davidoff explains in the New York Post, the transformation from Japan to Major League Baseball won’t be easy, even for a pitcher that posted a 24-0 record last season. For his part, Tanaka seems to understand the feeling-out process that spring training will be for him this year.

“I understand that there’s going to be a lot of attention on the results, the numbers, on how I do out there,” Tanaka said through an interpreter. “For me, now looking at it, I just want to go out there and pitch my style out there and see how it is on the mound.”

In order to make the leap from the 85-win, third-place finish of 2013, the Yankees will need a productive year from Tanaka in the starting rotation.

While a mediocre offense was to blame for what ailed New York last summer, Yankees starters pitched to a 4.08 ERA, per ESPN. That mark placed them in the bottom half of the American League ranks.

How did Tanaka fare during his first game in a Yankees uniform? Here are updates and takeaways from the debut of New York’s newest star.

Anticipation

Unlike most Grapefruit League appearances by expensive, well-known starting pitchers, Tanaka wasn’t the first Yankees starter to take the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies.

In fact, he was the third member of New York’s rotation to toe the rubber, following CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda. When the 2014 season begins, he’ll likely be placed after those two starters in Yankees manager Joe Girardi’s rotation.

During the first four innings of Tanaka’s debut game, fans and media members became restless as baseball awaited his first pitch with increased anticipation. MLB Network’s broadcast—a simulcast of the YES Network broadcast—focused on Tanaka’s eventual appearance throughout the early innings.

When the Japanese star began tossing a baseball in the bullpen in the third inning, a soft roar took over the crowd, and several media members made their way to watch the main attraction stretch his arm out.

If the excitement of Tanaka’s first appearance rivals anything to come in his first season, Major League Baseball and the Yankees are poised to roll out a must-see event every fifth day.

Style, Not Results 

When the fifth inning arrived, Tanaka toed the rubber in America for the first time in an organized baseball game. Although this was technically a relief outing, allowing Tanaka to start a clean inning—without anyone on base or outs already recorded—afforded him the chance to treat the outing as if it was the first inning of a game.

Following Tanaka’s cue, based on the thoughts he shared with Davidoff, let’s focus on how he looked before dissecting the actual results against Philadelphia’s Grapefruit League lineup.

From a delivery perspective, Tanaka looked the part. Sporting the trademark stutter step featured by so many Japanese pitchers—including teammate Hiroki Kuroda—a fluid, compact delivery accompanied his pitches.

In his first inning, fastballs were up in the zone, including a fastball on the outside part of the place that resulted in an inning-ending strikeout. In Japan, it’s likely that fastballs in the mid-90s could generate empty swings, even if above the knees.

As the spring moves along, keep an eye on Tanaka’s location. In his first start, he lived higher in the zone than what’s needed to succeed in the AL East.

From the moment Tanaka surfaced on baseball’s radar, people have raved about his splitter. During the broadcast, YES Network’s Michael Kay and Ken Singleton opined about how effective it could be in the majors. Despite the accolades, though, it wasn’t on display during the fifth inning.

In the sixth, the splitter clearly emerged. With two strikes on Phillies outfielder Ben Revere, Tanaka launched a nasty, biting and diving splitter low and away. Predictably, Revere swung and missed at the excellent offering.

Performance

For many fans, this is all that matters.

After allowing a single to center field to Philles first baseman Darin Ruf, Tanaka settled down during his first inning of work. While the box score may show a fly ball caught to left field, the contact made against him wasn’t particularly hard or dangerous.

He recorded a strikeout to end the fifth inning with a fastball up in the zone, touching the outside corner.

In the sixth, Tanaka was even more impressive, generating strikeouts in two distinct ways: a devastating splitter and a chest-high fastball.

The splitter, used to fool Revere, was as good as advertised by the Yankees and scouts.

The fastball, although only hitting 89 mph on the radar gun, was high enough to prey on Domonic Brown’s weakness and located well enough to get under his hands. Unlike many high fastballs that are deposited into the seats, this was high enough to either classify as a waste pitch, induce a swing and miss or generate weak contact.

MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch got Tanaka’s personal take on his Yankees debut and what he experienced and felt out there on the mound:

Tanaka’s final stat line against Philadelphia: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 SO, 0 BB

Takeaways

Aesthetically, Tanaka looks and pitches like Hiroki Kuroda. While that comparison may not place him in a stratosphere of baseball’s top pitchers, it’s a good place to start a career.

Although his velocity wasn’t overpowering, watching Tanaka spot his fastball around the plate was impressive. Clearly, this is a pitcher with an idea of how to move the ball around, work the corners and confuse hitters by using all quadrants of the strike zone.

It’s early to jump to conclusions, especially for a pitcher who has now thrown just two innings in America, but it’s clear that this outing was a success for Tanaka in both style and substance.

Over the next few starts, keep an eye on Tanaka’s location and adjustments made against him. For now, the $155 million arm looks to be as advertised: potentially excellent.

What were your impressions of Tanaka’s first game in a Yankees uniform?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For the first time in years, the New York Mets spent significant money on free-agent talent during the offseason. Among the expenditures: Curtis Granderson‘s four-year, $60 million deal.

Although Mets fans will have to wait a month for Granderson’s debut at Citi Field, the former Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees star can begin to help transform a poor Mets lineup during the Grapefruit League slate. That schedule began Friday with an exhibition game against the Washington Nationals.

Last year, despite featuring third baseman David Wright’s .390 on-base percentage, the Mets scored only 619 runs and hit just 130 home runs.

Those figures, per ESPN, ranked 23rd and 25th, respectively, in Major League Baseball.

If the Mets are going to morph from a 74-win outfit to a 90-win powerhouse—an attainable goal according to their front office, per John Harper of the New York Daily News—Granderson’s powerful bat and run-scoring ability will be a major part of the turnaround.

Due to long-term injury issues, Granderson’s 2013 was limited to 245 forgettable plate appearances. In 2014, the Mets need their impact addition to profile as the type of performer he was from 2011 to 2012 for the Yankees. 

During those two seasons, Granderson posted averages of 42 home runs, 119 runs scored and 4.2 bWAR.

How did Granderson fare during his first game in a Mets uniform? Here are updates and takeaways from the debut of New York’s newest star.

New Team, New Role

The Grapefruit League is just underway for the Mets, but if the first game is any indication of how manager Terry Collins plans to use his new, expensive outfielder, an adjustment will be necessary for Granderson.

During Granderson’s 10-year career, he’s made just nine starts as a right fielder. Offensively, his name has been penciled into the No. 3 hole in the lineup just 25 times. 

Despite his track record as a center fielder and top-of-the-order hitter, Granderson started the exhibition season as New York’s right fielder and No. 3 hitter.

Defensively, Granderson should be able to adjust without a problem. In reality, as he enters his age-33 season, moving away from the demanding defensive position of center field is a good move for Granderson’s defensive value.

Over the last three years, Granderson was worth a total dWAR (defensive WAR) of minus-0.8 for the Yankees outfield. In other words, he cost the Yankees due to diminishing defense in center field.

Offensively, Granderson can excel by hitting ahead of David Wright in the order. With one of baseball’s best all-around players behind him, pitchers won’t want to pitch around Granderson and put him on base ahead of the dangerous Wright.

If it comes to patience at the plate, Granderson shouldn’t have trouble taking a walk ahead of a talented hitter. During his time with the Yankees, Granderson often hit in the No. 2 hole in the lineup, ahead of impact bats like Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. 

Over the last three years, Granderson’s walk rate hasn’t dipped below 11 percent.

Focus on Timing, Not Health

When considering Granderson’s ability to stay on the field this summer, don’t let his freak injuries—stemming from two separate hit-by-pitch sequences—cloud what he’s been during a long career: one of baseball’s most durable players.

From 2006 to 2012, Granderson played in 1,070 games, averaging 153 per season. Only eight players—Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Ichiro Suzuki, Miguel Cabrera, Dan Uggla, Robinson Cano, Michael Young and Jeff Francoeur—topped him in that category, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Among that list of iron men, only Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Francoeur did it as outfielders. 

Yet, strictly going by games played in 2013, Granderson could be labeled as damaged goods or a question mark heading into this season.

Instead of fretting about his health, pay attention to timing and comfort in the box. Injuries happen, but Granderson lost a major chunk of his free-agent season due to errant pitches. If he’s jumpy in the box or looks uncomfortable early in spring training, it’s something he has to work through. 

Unlike players with hamstring or ankle concerns, Granderson should be a lock for 150 games in 2014.

Performance

When a team shells out $15 million per season for a player, performance isn’t just vital; it supersedes everything.

Granderson’s arrival gave the Mets legitimacy on the free-agent market, but he’ll need to live up to the contract in 2014 and beyond by playing a solid outfield and hitting the cover off the baseball in Queens.

During his first exhibition game, Granderson looked comfortable in right field, easily gliding to a fly ball for an inning-ending out in the top of the third. 

Offensively, Granderson flied to left field in the bottom of the first inning, grounded out to second in the fourth and was removed from the game before a third plate appearance.

Granderson finished the day 0-for-2.

Takeaways

Granderson will be a vital performer for the Mets in 2014. If he hits close to the level of 2011-2012, David Wright will have another middle-of-the-order bat to take the pressure off him and help New York’s offense rise out of the bottom third of league ranks.

Furthermore, the veteran will be looked upon as a leader and one of the faces of the franchise.

During SNY’s broadcast, the Mets broadcast team raved about the type of person that Granderson is around the facility and clubhouse. For a franchise looking to win games and sell tickets, the affable star can be a marketing dream.

What were your impressions of Granderson’s first game in a Mets uniform? Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After a winter of lavish spending on homegrown, ascending talents, the Atlanta Braves have locked up their young core—Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran—for years, ensuring the quartet will help guide the franchise into a new stadium in 2017.

Technically, 24-year-old Jason Heyward belongs in that group. Amid the wave of lucrative, long-term pacts handed out by Braves general manager Frank Wren, Heyward‘s name popped up on the transaction log on the same day news broke about Freeman’s franchise-changing deal.

Yet Heyward, potentially the most talented player on the roster, wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond the 2015 season. Atlanta was wise to buy out his remaining arbitration years, but the talented right fielder is careening toward an inevitable date with free agency. 

Clearly, Atlanta altered its business model this winter. After years of sporting payroll figures less than $100 million, the Braves locked up the core of a team that will soon become expensive. Despite that spending, Heyward wasn’t showered with the riches of his teammates. 

Why?

It depends what answer is more suitable to your opinion of Heyward as a player, both in the present and future. 

The easy answer: Heyward, despite the highest pedigree of any former top prospect on the roster, hasn’t yet proven to be worthy of a major commitment.  

The harder and more likely answer: Heyward‘s price tag, based on talent and production thus far in the majors, is too much for Atlanta’s ownership to handle.

Let’s start with the easy explanation for Heyward‘s unimpressive two-year, $13.3 million deal.

Despite immense talent, Heyward hasn’t yet become a dominant, game-changing force for the Braves or anything close to a perennial NL MVP candidate. That sentiment is backed up by counting stats.

Since 2010, Heyward has played in 100-plus big league games in each season. His big frame and natural swing seem custom built for power. Yet Heyward has only one campaign of 20-plus home runs thus far for Atlanta’s lineup.

Last year, Heyward drove in just 38 runs. That figure, while surprising on the surface, is an even more head-scratching statistic when looking at names above him on the RBI leader list: Jeff Keppinger, Darwin Barney and Daniel Descalso. 

Atlanta’s right fielder isn’t just producing less RBI than middle-of-the-order sluggers—he’s driving in less runs than replacement-level hitters. 

When Heyward emerged on the scene in 2010—launching a home run in his first major league at-bat—the sky seemed limitless for Atlanta’s new star. During that rookie season, he backed it up with a .393 on-base percentage and 131 OPS+, good enough to garner a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote. 

Coupled with consecutive top-five prospect rankings by Baseball America, Heyward was expected to become an instant star. Since the 2010 season ended, Braves fans and Atlanta’s front office have been caught holding their collective breath for that star to arrive.

Although he hasn’t blossomed into baseball’s best player, the reason for Heyward‘s uncertain future has little to do with what he hasn’t done. Instead, it’s about the rare company he’s in among on-base machines and young, productive outfielders throughout baseball history.

Over the last few years, executives have spent lavishly on top-of-the-order hitters.  

Prior to the 2011 season, Carl Crawford signed a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. At the time, his career OBP was .337.

Before the 2012 season, Jose Reyes bolted New York for a six-year, $106 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Upon his arrival, Reyes’ career OBP stood at .341.

This winter, the New York Yankees awarded Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $152 million pact to ignite the lineup. Since debuting in 2007, the former Red Sox outfielder has posted a .350 OBP.

Heyward enters 2014 with a career on-base percentage of .352, better than Crawford, Reyes or Ellsbury at the time of their contracts.

Last season, Atlanta moved Heyward into the leadoff spot for 30 games. During that time, the then 23-year-old reached base over 40 percent of the time. Heading into 2014, Fredi Gonzalez envisions Heyward reprising that role, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 

“If you had to start the season tomorrow, I think you would run him out there,” Gonzalez said. 

If he does, his career OBP could soon dwarf the outputs of Crawford, Reyes and Ellsbury.

Of course, Heyward‘s excellence isn’t just rooted in one statistic or contained to a specific skill set. When his age-22 season yielded 27 home runs, the young left-handed hitter placed himself in rare company among young outfield stars.

Over the course of baseball history, only 12 outfielders have reached the following criteria through their respective age-23 seasons: 2,000 plate appearances, 70 home runs and a .350 OBP. As the following chart illustrates, baseball’s best outfielders began their careers looking very similar to Heyward.

If this information is available to us, it’s certainly available to Atlanta’s front office and Heyward‘s representation.

When Heyward‘s name comes up, uncertainty and unfulfilled promise are often cited. When the Braves chose to leave their right fielder out of their long-term planning this winter, those narratives were at the forefront.

Sometimes, the easy answer isn’t the right answer.

It’s fair to say that Heyward hasn’t reached his potential. But it’s also eye-opening to consider what he’s done before that day arrives. 

When the Braves chose to re-sign the bulk of their core, Heyward wasn’t left out on purpose. Instead, it was an admission that this player may cost too much to retain.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When the New York Yankees traded for Michael Pineda in January of 2012, visions of a future top-of-the-rotation arm floated throughout the Bronx. In 2014, providing 20-plus starts and league-average production would be an accomplishment for the 25-year-old.

Since arriving in New York, Pineda hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues. The flame-throwing righty has been teetering between the disabled list and minor league rehab assignments since injuring his shoulder two years ago. 

In a perfect world, Pineda would re-emerge as the dominant, rotation-changing force he profiled as during his rookie year in Seattle. Of course, this isn’t a perfect world. 

As the Yankees prepare for a season of high expectations, Pineda‘s current and future role cast a shadow over the franchise.

In the long term, health and production from Pineda could change the payroll outlook and allocation of resources for general manager Brian Cashman. In the short term, a facsimile of Pineda‘s debut season could change the fortune of the 2014 Yankees. 

If you forgot just how good Pineda was in 2011, don’t be ashamed. It’s been a while since the then 22-year-old burst on the scene in Seattle, blew fastballs and biting sliders by unsuspecting hitters and formed a young, dynamic duo with Felix Hernandez. 

On the surface, the numbers—171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.15 SO/BB—were very solid. Despite a drop in production (5.12 ERA) after an AL All-Star Game invitation, Seattle’s young stud managed a fifth-place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. 

Accolades aside, it was Pineda‘s future that became so tantalizing. At the age of 22, when many prized pitching prospects are still in Double-A or working through innings limitations in the big leagues, Pineda threw 171 innings for Seattle. When factoring in his enormous strikeout rate (9.1 SO/9), a rare picture emerged.

Over the course of baseball history, just eight starters have thrown 170-plus innings and struck out at least one batter per inning during their respective age-22 seasons. By joining that group, Pineda laid the groundwork for future dominance.

No, not every name on that list ended up in Cooperstown. Yet, when adding up the career accolades of the seven pitchers Pineda joined, a bright future wasn’t hard to predict for Seattle’s young ace. The seven pitchers that came before Pineda combined for 546 career victories, 14 all-star appearances and six finishes in the top-five of Cy Young voting.

Clearly, the potential for greatness was in Pineda‘s right arm. Now, nearly three full years from his debut, it’s hard to predict or project anything close to that during the 2014 season.

Yet, injuries and time away from the game haven’t stopped first-hand sources from raving about Pineda‘s talent and potential. 

Last summer, during a whirlwind rehab tour, Alex Rodriguez crossed paths with Pineda on a minor league stop. Despite all the vitriol directed at Rodriguez’s lack of honesty with the media, few would ever question his baseball acumen.

When asked about Pineda‘s ability, the three-time AL MVP gushed about what he could still become for the Yankees, per Ian Begley of ESPN New York.

“Michael’s a very special kid,” Rodriguez said. “In the weight room, he’s like a monster, as strong as you get … and I think that will translate, especially when he gets back from his surgery. It’s going to take time for him, especially a power pitcher, but I see him next year pitching 94-98, getting back to that velocity.”

If that velocity—94.7 mph average fastball during 2011, per Fangraphs—returns, perhaps the Yankees can check off one of Joel Sherman’s ‘dream season’ checklist points. During a column discussing what the Yankees need to go in their favor in 2014, the New York Post columnist suggested 25 starts and high-end No. 3 starter production from Pineda. 

Thus far, the returns have been positive from Tampa, Fla. According to Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York, Pineda looked ‘good’ in a recent bullpen session. 

In spring, optimism is limitless. Pineda can easily impress Rodriguez in Triple-A, conjure up fun predictions from columnists and catch the eye of a beat reporter at Legends Field. But when the season begins, none of that will matter. 

At this point, it’s a fool’s errand to expect big things from Pineda in 2014. After two full seasons away from the majors—which included just 10 outings in the minors—the burgeoning ace of 2011 has thrown just 40.2 innings of professional baseball since.

Even if Pineda looks sharp and strong during Grapefruit League action, expect the Yankees to ease him back into the rotation. In early April, if off days allow for the No. 5 starter to be skipped, Pineda could be given extended rest. At the All-Star break, the Yankees could rework the rotation to spell Pineda a few starts. 

In theory, Pineda‘s arm could have handled a jump to a 200-inning workload in 2012. Injury and lost seasons have thrown that trajectory and development into a tizzy. If the Yankees can coax something close to Ivan Nova’s 2013 workload (20 GS, 139.1 IP) out of Pineda in 2014, it would be a victory. 

When you combine Pineda‘s talent, 2011 debut, rare class of age-22 stars he joined, Rodriguez’s seal of approval and positive reviews from the New York media, a bounce-back candidate can be envisioned.

With this case, it’s better to err on the side of caution.

If the Yankees can turn a former phenom into a No. 4 or No. 5 stater in 2014, it’s a boon to both their current and future rotation hopes.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.   

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After a winter of discontent in Charm City, the Baltimore Orioles took a talented team into spring training without adequate offseason additions. By shelling out a long-term deal for Ubaldo Jimenez, the team took a worthwhile risk.

Barring a snafu with a physical—something always possible in Baltimore—the Orioles landed a top-of-the-rotation arm. The news, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, rewards patience for a fanbase that had difficulty watching their team remain dormant for most of the winter.

If baseball had been listening, this move wouldn’t have come as a surprise. Orioles general manager Dan Duquette told Jonah Keri of Grantland that the team payroll could come close to $100 million before Opening Day:

We’ve got a budget where we can compete in the East. We operate within the market. That’s the right way to go about it. We put significant resources into the current team, into re-signing guys. A lot of guys are getting raises because they’re doing well. Through careful reinvestments, we’ve built a contending team, and we’re confident we’ll do that again this year.

After avoiding arbitration with Matt Wieters, Baltimore sat at just less than $80 million with six weeks until the start of the regular season. If an option presented itself, the Orioles were poised to pounce. 

To be fair, Jimenez isn’t perfect. If he was, the draft-pick compensation attached to his free agency wouldn’t have mattered and a contract in excess of $100 million would have arrived in his agent’s mailbox within the first few weeks of the hot-stove season. 

Over the last four years, Jimenez has been one of the most confounding starters in baseball. When he’s good, few pitchers are more dominant. Yet, when he’s not, it’s hard to justify keeping him around for more than one season. By offering Jimenez a four-year pact, the Orioles are betting big on his good side.

When the 30-year-old right-hander arrives in Sarasota, Fla., to join his new teammates, he’ll find a franchise eerily similar to himself: talented, yet flawed.

Despite winning 93 and 85 games, respectively, over the last two years, it’s hard to find a good word written about the Orioles’ trajectory or 2014 outlook.

Part of that was due to a confounding offseason in which Jim Johnson was traded away, Nate McLouth was allowed to depart in free agency and little groundwork was reported on long-term deals for talents like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters.

Another major part of the doom and gloom surrounding Baltimore’s chances in the AL East: starting pitching.

Or, a lack of high-end starting pitching. 

Despite playing winning baseball in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1996-1997, the Orioles didn’t impress analysts. Led by Buck Showalter’s preparedness and an outstanding offense, the team overcame poor starting pitching to contend in two consecutive years.

How poor? Baltimore’s starters pitched to a 4.42 ERA in 2012, good for 21st in the sport. Last year, that number rose to 4.57 and 27th in baseball. Only the Astros, Blue Jays and Twins posted worse ERAs last season. In reality, the Orioles should have been praised for winning so often despite awful starting pitching.

Jimenez might not be the cure to everything that ails Baltimore, but he’s a significant upgrade. Based on his performance in 2013, the Orioles just signed one of the best and most unique pitchers in the world. 

Last year, only seven starting pitchers made 30 starts, posted an ERA of 3.30 or better and struck out at least one batter per inning. The first six names on that list (subscription required)—Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, A.J. Burnett and Stephen Strasburg—aren’t hard to guess. Outside of Burnett, they’ve profiled as dominant pitchers on a yearly basis.

The last man among that septet: Ubaldo Jimenez.

No right-minded baseball fan would bet on Jimenez to match Sale, Hernandez or Strasburg in production over the next four years. Quite honestly, Jimenez’s biggest supporters wouldn’t even make that claim.

Yet, the Orioles didn’t sign him to win a Cy Young or match the best arms in baseball on a pitch-by-pitch basis. Instead, he’s been brought into Baltimore to upgrade a rotation that has been holding back a tremendous core of offensive talent. 

From Chris Davis to Adam Jones to J.J. Hardy to Nick Markakis to Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s core of position players are all between the ages of 27 and 31. That group doesn’t even include 21-year-old phenom Manny Machado. By the end of 2014, he could supplant his elders as the best player on the roster. As they smash the ball around Camden Yards, the team needed to support their efforts with capable starting pitching.

A quick peak at the new-look Orioles rotation gives a glimpse as to what Baltimore has built around them.

Led by Jimenez and 2013 All-Star Chris Tillman, the rotation has a chance to surprise. Right now, neither of Baltimore’s top pitching prospects—Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy—are projected to be part of the rotation when camp breaks. Gausman has all the ability to win the No. 5 starter job. Bundy, recovering from Tommy John surgery, could force his way into the mix by mid-summer.

Jimenez or not, the Orioles won’t be confused with the rotations assembled in Washington, Detroit or Los Angeles. That doesn’t mean that the Orioles aren’t deserving of baseball’s attention right now, though. 

If Jimenez can bring the strikeout rate, durability and second-half dominance (1.72 ERA in 78.1 IP after July 22) he displayed in Cleveland last summer, the Orioles may have done enough to improve a team that’s averaged 89 victories over the last two years. 

Awarding close to $50 million, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, to a pitcher that owns one of the worst strikeout-to-walk ratios over the last decade comes with significant risk (subscription required). Over the next four years, Jimenez could pitch down to his 2011-2012 standards (5.03 ERA), pitting this deal as a disaster for Duquette and Baltimore’s front office.

The risk associated with this deal is evident, but so is the upside. If Jimenez performs admirably, the Orioles can contend in the AL East and for a spot in October.

For a franchise that hasn’t won a postseason series since 1997, the time is now to command respect and show baseball that there’s a team to be taken seriously in Baltimore.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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When the New York Yankees drafted Derek Jeter in 1992, the 18-year-old shortstop entered an organization with a cloudy future. Over two decades later—through no fault of his own—he’ll exit New York with the Yankees staring down an uncomfortably similar fate.

During Jeter’s reign in the Bronx, the Yankees dominated the sport. Led by a resurgent farm system, the core of a dynasty was erected in the mid-’90s.

Despite experiencing October failure throughout most of the 2000s, no franchise has been more successful since the day Derek Jeter became the shortstop in New York.

Despite the cloudy future that hovered over the Yankees when Jeter was drafted, the outlook changed quickly and swiftly thanks to factors such as Gene Michael reviving the farm system, Buck Showalter nurturing young, ascending talents like Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, Joe Torre arriving as manager and George Steinbrenner‘s hefty wallet.

As with any franchise, times change.

Jeter is still around, but the faces and symbols of his most successful years are long gone.

From Steinbrenner‘s death to Torre’s awkward parting to age and attrition breaking apart a dynastic core, the Yankees changed considerably as Jeter transitioned from superstar to solid contributor.

Now, as Jeter embarks on his farewell tour in 2014, the future of the organization is as murky as it was the day the all-time-great shortstop arrived. 

In fact, due to a win-now edict, poor farm system and imperfect leadership options, projecting how the Yankees will look over the next five years—both aesthetically and in the win column—is a fool’s errand. 

If the post-Jeter future in the Bronx were up to some Yankees fans, a rebuilding effort would commence in 2015 and beyond.

Due to the immense pressure to win a World Series every single season, the Yankees won’t allow themselves to traverse down that type of path. That was proven this winter when the team blew past their self-imposed $189 million salary cap in order to procure talent to reach the postseason.

On the surface, signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka to lucrative, long-term deals is a great way to improve a team that limped to an 85-win finish last summer.

Yet, without some help from the farm system, the Yankees will be unable to field a consistent winner over the next five years.

Unfortunately for a franchise that built a dynasty based on homegrown talent, impact players are not on the horizon for 2014 or the foreseeable future. During a three-part series on the Yankees farm system, Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York took a look at the issues surrounding New York’s inability to produce stars. 

When asked about the state of the system, Brian Cashman was blunt in his assessment.

“It’s not as good as we need it to be in terms of results,” Brian Cashman said. “There are a number of reasons behind that. At the end of the day, we’ve had some misses, without a doubt. We’ve had some guys who didn’t make their projections, who failed to cross the finish line. So basically it’s fair to criticize where we’re currently sitting.”

Unless you believe in Michael Pineda’s shoulder, Manny Banuelos‘ elbow or J.R. Murphy’s catching ability, the Yankees are going to have to spend in free agency to replace Jeter and the rest of their aging roster over the next few years.

While money is rarely an object for this franchise, the long-term payroll sheet is far from clean. In 2015, the Yankees already owe over $148 million to nine players—including a mind-boggling $22 million to Alex Rodriguez, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 

Eventually, money will come off the books and new stars will arrive, welcomed to New York with glitz and glamour.

The team will only have $86.1 million on the books when the 2016 season concludes. As Chris Cwik of Sports on Earth points out in this free-agent primer, that winter’s class of available stars could include both Giancarlo Stanton and Stephen Strasburg.

Regardless of the cost, the Yankees will find talent. A fertile farm system could sustain success for much less money, but the team doesn’t have that luxury right now.

Beyond procuring talent in the years after Jeter’s retirement, a major leadership void could emanate in the Bronx.

Jeter’s captaincy has been a constant for the Yankees for years, but the veterans surrounding him—from Jorge Posada to Mariano Rivera to Andy Pettitte—all shared a similar trait: They came through the system. 

Prior to this winter, Robinson Cano was the logical choice to be the next leader of the Yankees. Not only was the star second baseman great; he was a Yankee from the day he arrived in America. Upon signing a $240 million contract to play in Seattle, Cano’s opportunity to become Jeter’s heir apparent in the clubhouse disappeared. 

Now, for the first time in a long time, the next Yankees leader will likely be a mercenary. Yes, a former free-agent signing must ascend to the throne of clubhouse enforcer. This winter, Brian McCann arrived in New York with a reputation as a fiery leader from his days in Atlanta.  

Owner Hal Steinbrenner didn’t mince words about McCann’s best traits, per Daniel Barbarisi of The Wall Street Journal.

“He’s a very smart guy, and he knows that this is Derek Jeter’s clubhouse,” said Steinbrenner. “And he’s said that. But I think naturally he’s a leader, and that comes out. It’s just a matter of time.”

Steinbrenner may be right about McCann, but another catcher actually represents the best in-house option for the transition away from Derek Jeter’s captaincy.  

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, manager Joe Girardi, a former catcher and teammate of Derek Jeter, is the bridge that will link this era of Yankee baseball to the next successful run. 

“Thus, even in Jeter’s farewell tour, Girardi becomes more important than ever. For in 2014 and beyond, he will be the link to this recent glorious past, the one most responsible for maintaining the Yankee Way. He must keep the standards and win totals high,” Sherman writes.

Sherman, while undoubtedly correct, stumbles upon some of the future issues within this organization.

Girardi, a legitimately excellent manager, is the bridge to that gap and deserves to be given power within the club. Yet, the team needs an on-field leader to emerge in order to sustain long-term success.

In a perfect world, that leader will be cultivated through the farm system, nurtured by Girardi and allowed to flourish on the field and in the clubhouse.

That formula—great organization, excellent manager, history of stars—was perfected by the St. Louis Cardinals. As Albert Pujols’ reign ended, Yadier Molina’s began. Both learned under the tutelage of Tony La Russa.  

The Yankees aren’t the Cardinals. If they were, Jeter’s departure would just be a grand farewell on the path to bigger and better things.

In this case, it’s not. When Derek Jeter retires, an organizational shock could overtake the Bronx. Not only will the Yankees need to replace a shortstop; they’ll need to carve a new identity and rethink a long-term plan for success.

Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi, much like Gene Michael and Buck Showalter in the early ’90s, are smart enough to navigate through this transition. Now comes the hard part: actually doing it. 

Will the Yankees struggle without Derek Jeter? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Despite missing out on the postseason last October, the New York Yankees enter spring training as the biggest story in Major League Baseball.

Yes, the Red Sox won the World Series, the Dodgers carry a $200 million payroll and the Nationals are poised to win big in 2014. But, while compelling, none of their spring training venues can come close to matching the kind of drama and media attention that will surface in Tampa, Fla. at Steinbrenner Field.

Over a four-month span, the Yankees lost Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez, and added Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka. As if that wasn’t enough of a whirlwind, Derek Jeter announced that 2014 would be his final season.

For most teams, the first day of spring training is boring. For the New York Yankees, it’s must-see television.

Here’s a recap of the first day of Yankees spring training.

Begin Slideshow

When the dust settles on Derek Jeter‘s farewell season, the Yankees will be forced to face a question that’s been dormant for nearly two decades in New York: Who is going to play shortstop next?

For most teams, this is a yearly or frequent exercise. Unless a stud emerges from the farm system, finding a star-caliber shortstop is difficult. 

Luckily for the Yankees, one could be available on the open market next winter. 

No, we’re not talking about Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera or J.J. Hardy. While all are good players, none profiles as the perfect heir to Derek Jeter’s shortstop throne in New York. Instead, that distinction belongs to current Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez. 

In order to peel back the thinking within the Yankees’ brain trust, let’s take a look at why they would be wise to send a batch of scouts to follow Ramirez’s progress, health and ability throughout the 2014 season.

First, as always when it comes to free-agent signings, is production.

When healthy, Ramirez isn’t just a good replacement for Jeter; he’s one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball history. 

Since debuting as a 22-year-old star in Florida, Ramirez has raked. The following chart shows his production compared to every top shortstop in baseball history during their respective age-22-29 seasons. 

As you can see, Ramirez’s bat is among the best ever at the position. If not for health concerns, baseball fans would be plotting an eventual trip to Cooperstown for the 30-year-old slugger. Over the last three seasons (2011-13), Ramirez has played in over 100 games just once.

After averaging 152 games per season during his first five years in Florida, it’s fair to wonder if health will continue to be an issue moving forward. 

However, production shouldn’t be a concern. 

Last year, Ramirez was arguably the best hitter in the National League, posting a 190 OPS+ for the Dodgers during their run to the NL West title. In fact, Los Angeles’ ascension in the standings coincided with Ramirez’s return from injury in June.

While Yasiel Puig’s emergence received most of the credit, the Dodgers welcomed game-changing production from Ramirez during their 53-13 run from late June through early September. During that span (June 22-Sept. 3), Ramirez posted a .327/.376/.615 slash line. If that slugging percentage isn’t eye-opening, consider this: Miguel Cabrera’s .620 mark over the last two years is almost identical. 

Clearly, Ramirez can adequately replace Jeter in New York’s lineup. Furthermore, if his large frame (6’2″, 225 lbs) dictates a future move to third base—a position he played in 2012—it will buy the Yankees time to replace Jeter with a younger option and serve as a long-term plan for Alex Rodriguez‘s eventual exit from the Bronx.

From a lineup perspective, Ramirez’s power bat would provide a different dynamic to New York’s batting order. With Alfonso Soriano in the last year of his long-term contract, Ramirez could slide into the middle of New York’s lineup along with Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann, giving manager Joe Girardi a right-handed complement to the switch-hitting first baseman and left-handed catcher. 

Of course, there’s more to this equation than just production. If Ramirez is the guy to replace Jeter, a different set of criteria will apply.

The first—willingness to understand Jeter’s legacy and what he meant to baseball—can be checked off. 

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports spoke to Ramirez about replacing Jeter in 2015, assuming the Dodgers star doesn’t sign a long-term extension in Los Angeles before next winter. While dodging a question that could be a distraction in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, Ramirez went out of his way to praise Jeter’s career and what he meant to him:

“Everybody knows I grew up looking at Jeter,” said Ramirez. “It’s why I wore No. 2 in Miami. He was my idol, my hero. We’re going to miss him on the field. He’s great on the field, off the field. Everybody’s going to miss him.”

When Jeter’s retirement announcement sent shock waves through baseball, Ramirez echoed those sentiments to his fans. 

Outside of production and willingness to ascend to Jeter’s throne, the next Yankee shortstop will need to procure some of the leadership and team-first attributes that New York fans have become accustomed to since 1996. Earlier in Ramirez’s career, those traits were tough to find. Since arriving to Los Angeles, that seems to have changed.

When asked about Ramirez’s number tribute to Jeter, his current manager—and former Yankees captain and coach—Don Mattingly had this to say about Ramirez’s on-field character, per Morosi‘s column:

“We’ve seen nothing but a Derek Jeter-style player—a little different style, obviously, because he’s more flamboyant and coming from a different place. But we see a lot of the leadership qualities in Hanley. And it shows, now that you tell me, that he wants to be that kind of guy,” Mattingly said.

Over the next few years, a leadership void could be apparent in New York’s clubhouse. After recent retirements of Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, Jeter is the last leader from the successful teams of the ’90’s. When he’s gone, someone will have to step up.

While it’s not surprising to hear Ramirez’s manager praise one of his best players, the endorsement of a teammate carries significant weight. When asked about Ramirez’s presence on the field, Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis had glowing reviews of his teammate, per Morosi‘s column:

“Hanley’s such a joy to play with. He’s such a leader out there in the middle of the field, somebody I trust and count on to keep me involved in the game. He’s always somebody who comes to the mound [during conferences] and brings intensity and a strong desire to win that’s infectious to the rest of us.”

At some point, the Yankees are going to attempt to replace Jeter with a long-term option. In reality, no one can duplicate what Jeter is and has been for the past two decades. The next Yankees shortstop will be compared to a once-in-a-lifetime player.  

Ramirez’s apparent red flags—injury history, age, price tag in free agency—didn’t scare the team away from handing Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million contract this winter.

Next February, as the Yankees report to their first spring training without Jeter in over 20 years, signing Ramirez to fill the void is the logical move for a franchise in transition. 

Agree? Disagree? Who should be the next Yankees shortstop?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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