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September To Remember: MLB Playoff Plot Thickening In Nearly Every Division

Perhaps you remember several years ago when rock band Green Day released their hit album American Idiot (I happen to because it was the first one I ever bought). Anyway, one of the songs was titled “Wake Me Up When September Ends.” As the title suggests, the song yearns for the supposedly dreadful month to end and for October to begin.

Well, Billie Joe Armstrong must not be a huge baseball fan, because September on the diamond is epic.

Take this year for instance. Five of baseball’s six divisions are still pretty much up for grabs, as well as both Wild Card slots.  This leaves six teams in the AL and seven in the NL which are scrambling for four playoff slots.

The AL West is the only division which I feel will not produce much drama in the final month of the regular season. The Texas Rangers currently are the only team in the division above .500 and hold an eight-game lead over second-place Oakland. Unless the A’s, or possibly Angels, can pull off a miracle, the division belongs to Texas.

The other West, however, is much different.

San Diego still sits atop the division at 76-59, but instead of standing tall, are now wobbling on one leg after losing 10 straight games, seven to teams inside the division. The Giants, meanwhile, are only 5-4 in that span but have managed to pull within a game of the slumping Padres. And don’t forget the Rockies, who have won 10 of their past 14 and are oh so notorious for late season surges (see 2007, 2009). In addition, all three teams still have a shot at the Wild Card as San Francisco and Colorado trail front runner Philadelphia by two- and five-and-a-half games respectively.

Moving east to America’s heartland, the usually weak Central divisions are finally producing some contenders. One of this year’s true feel good stories, the Reds currently own the best record in the National League and lead their division by seven games. However, it is hard to overestimate the Cards’ potent offense, led by perhaps the best hitter in all of baseball, as well as their more than capable pitching. The Cards are also within five-and-a-half of the Phils in the Wild Card race.

In the AL, the Twins currently hold a three-and-a-half game lead over the White Sox, who trail in the Wild Card race by seven games. Both teams have won eight out of their past 10.

Back East, the Braves and Phillies appear destined for a shootout as Atlanta currently hold the division by one game over Philadelphia, who in turn is leading the Wild Card. It will be interesting to see how this race turns out.

Finally, baseball’s most infamous division has three teams vying for it, with one of those teams having a much better shot at the Wild Card. As you may have guessed, the perennial contenders in the Big Apple are winning their division once again.

However, their New England rivals aren’t the ones chasing them this time.  Instead, the Rays are the ones who own the league’s second-best record, trailing the Yanks by two-and-a-half games, and leading the Wild Card by a whopping seven games. Theoretically, Boston could still climb back in the race, but a 10-game division deficit to one team in the division and a seven-and-a-half game WC deficit to another is difficult to overcome at this point in the season.

With one month left in the season, virtually anything could happen. The Yanks could tumble, or a team that has been quiet all season like the Marlins could start winning like crazy and make the playoffs on the last day. If you ask me, the Yanks and Rays seem destined to make the postseason. Minnesota will probably hold off the streaking Sox in that race, which leaves the National League.

San Francisco has one of the best closers in baseball, solid starting pitching, and a lineup that has been better than expected the past few months. I see them overtaking the Pads pretty soon and holding them off the rest of the season to take their first NL West crown in seven years. The Reds should hold on in the NL Central, and just to shake things up, I am going with the Phils in the division and either Atlanta or Colorado for the Wild Card.

However, what’s great about baseball is that you don’t have to listen to my picks because there is a good chance they will not happen. And that is the beauty of baseball.

Wake me up when September ends? Sorry Green Day, but I don’t think so. If anything, wake me up when September starts because that is when you are prone to see the best ball of the season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


A New Way of Ranking MLB Teams

Every week, major sports websites such as ESPN and FOX come out with their MLB Power Rankings. The point of this is to show which teams are playing well and which teams simply are not gonna make it.

What these rankings don’t take into consideration, however, is how much money each team spent on it’s players.Therefore, I have devised a formula which takes each team’s total payroll and divides it by the number of wins they have then multiplies it by 10 million to get the teams payroll to win ratio, or PTWR for short. The lower a team’s PTWR the better because it means they are winning more games using less money.

The advantage of using the PTWR is that it prevents teams like the Yankees, who essentially buy all their talent, from unfairly dominating the rankings year in and year out.

Although some anomalies are caused by team’s being so rich (Yankees) or so poor (Pirates) that their PTWR is abnormally high or low regardless of where they are in the standings, it is a good tool for determining baseball’s true success stories, such as San Diego who has the best record in the NL despite having the leagues second lowest payroll, and it’s true failures, such as the Chicago Cubs who can’t seem to get anything done despite having the highest payroll in the NL and in all of baseball following the Yankees and Red Sox.

Note that the following numbers were calculated at the completion of yesterday’s games, so the PTWR might have changed since then depending on when you are reading this. 

So, without further delay, here it is, the PTWR rankings of all 30 MLB teams.

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Could Tim Lincecum’s Run as Top NL Pitcher Be Done Already?

(I would like to say first that I originally wrote this article for another sports website, so I apologize for the glitches in formatting. The original article is here: http://sportsflecks.com/?p=895)

I will probably get a lot of criticism for this post. As a Giants fan myself, it is considered sacrilege for me to talk negatively about the team’s future, it’s pitching in particular.

When you put the two together, the end result isn’t pretty. I can already hear you calling me a deserter, impatient, or even worse, a band wagoner for voicing my concerns over Lincecum’s future outlook.

However, I am not here to please anybody. I am here to give you my opinion on what’s going on in baseball and sometimes basketball…whether you listen is your choice entirely.

Here it is: after Tuesday night’s horrendous start against the Cubbies, I don’t see how, barring a major turn of events, Lincecum could possibly regain his stature as the top pitcher in the National League, let alone baseball.

There, I said it. Now, before getting your blowtorches and pitchforks ready, let me finish lamenting the fall of a player who was supposed to be the new face of a franchise I have cherished for years.

After Timmy’s second Cy in 2009, it seemed impossible for him to be gone before the end of 2010. He was the ace of a young and improving team that plays in a pitcher’s park, and had just put up numbers unprecedented by people of his age.

The only thing going against him, it seemed, was a misdemeanor he received while driving through his home state of Washington with trace amounts of marijuana in his car. Life was good, and so was baseball.

Fast forward to August 2010. While the Giants are certainly contending, it is virtually impossible for Timmy to achieve the three peat which, barring a Halladay surge, seemed rightfully his at the start of the season.

His 3.41 ERA ranks 19th in the National League and 35th in all of baseball, hardly the mark of an ace. His 1.3 WHIP isn’t even top 40 material, and he is currently locked in an 11 way tie for the 17th most wins in the majors.

Just to point out how much can change in a year, he held the league’s third-best ERA and fourth best WHIP last season. Oh, and he has already allowed a career-worst 13 homers this season.

I know what you are probably thinking. “Oh, sure, this season may be a bad one for him, but it’s just a hiccup. He’ll be back better than ever next season.” Maybe so, but as strange as it may seem, 2011 may be too late.

The end of the steroid ERA has caused the power to shift to the mound, and many of today’s brightest stars are young NL pitchers. In other words, it will be way harder to win the NL Cy Young in 2011 than it was in 2008 and 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez already has 17 wins this season, and it’s only mid-August. Yeah, that’s already more than Lincecum had in all of 2009.

At age 26, Josh Johnson’s dazzling 1.97 ERA leads all pitchers in baseball. Yeah, that’s over half a point off of Timmy’s in ’09. And don’t get me started on Stephen Strasburg. A Cy is in his future, be certain of that.

On the flip side, it’s not all bad for Lincecum. His strikeouts have remained consistent, and he’s still a dangerous pitcher when he pitches well.

However, inconsistency and struggling in a time when pitching is better then ever and only improving means that Lincecum’s time as the top pitcher in the NL may be over just a few years after it started.

Back-to-back Cy’s in a player’s first two full seasons followed by no more the rest of their career seems implausible, but in Lincecum’s case it looks like it is exactly what will happen if the Freak doesn’t start pitching better soon.

And by soon, I mean right now.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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