Kuzul

When the Tampa Bay Rays opened the 2008 major league season, third baseman Evan Longoria was playing for the Durham Bulls in the Triple A International League.

It was the minor leagues for the Rays first choice in the 2006 draft, and was the third overall pick. Many people, including myself, suggested the Rays were trying to save themselves some money by delaying Longoria’s “arbitration clock” by sending him to the minors.

Isn’t the idea to try and win games? Longoria was the Rays best opportunity at third base to help them win, but was mired in Triple A for financial reasons.

But being mired lasted all of seven games and 25 at bats, before Longoria was promoted to the majors. The Rays were going to let the clock start early on their prize after all.

But even the Rays startled everyone by signing Longoria the next day to a six year, $17.5 million contract through 2013 including three club options for 2014-2016. The Rays bought out all of Longoria’s arbitration years and his first three free agent years with club options.

Based upon Longoria’s performance, the team has made out very well. Even though they gambled on an unproven young talent and are going to save a bunch of money over the long haul.

This buying out of a players early “control” years is a growing trend which began in the early-to-mid 1990’s by General Manager John Hart when he was with the Cleveland Indians. He signed up youngsters Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Carlos Baerga, plus Joey and Albert Belle to multi-year deals WHILE they were really good…and really young. 

For example, Lofton has a 7.7 WAR* in 1994 (shortened season due to strike), the highest in baseball that season and his WAR was 7.3 in 1993. He made only $925K that year and $1.925 million in 1995. His salary would have been much higher had Lofton actually gone to arbitration in 1995.

*That is the first time I used the WAR stat in any article ever. While I am not needing to be rushed to the hospital, I am still in shock. It was needed for reference on how good Lofton was those seasons. Don’t expect it all the time.

Hart needed to do this to keep together what he projected his core would be for many years at reasonable prices than what these players would receive through arbitration and early free agency. As a smaller market team, Hart reasoned the Indians had a smaller window to win.

Signing up young players is a great tactic for these small market** teams to use.

**I love the term small-market. With all these billionaire owners, they can afford to spend their OWN PERSONAL money on players. I don’t mean to spend frivolously big on free agents like you are Omar Minaya, but to spend to keep the players your organization develops.

Why then are there small markets when these guys have their own money they can spend. Before he died, Carl Pohlad of the Minnesota Twins was the richest owner in baseball but did not spend money. Lucky the Twins re-signed Kirby Puckett when Carl was alive, but I am not so sure he would have signed Joe Mauer to that contract last off season.

Should other small-market teams use the same ideas?

Of course, they should. They have to in order to compete with the so-called big boys of Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.

But these big teams do the same thing.

The Red Sox signed Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis to long term deals before even going to arbitration on Lester and Pedroia and after the first arbitration year for Youkilis. I fully expect them to extend Clay Buchholz after the 2011 season.

They want to see players perform for two or three seasons before they sign players longer term. This allows for any adjustment periods the league makes to the players after their rookie and sophomore seasons.

The Yankees also did that with Robinson Cano two seasons ago and even Derek Jeter, who was signed to a ten-year deal after his second arbitration year. Yankees would probably sign Phil Hughes to a multi-year deal, too, after 2011, buying out several arbitration years and maybe a free agent year or two.

Even the Philadelphia Phillies tied up their young guys Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, who were tied up after their first arbitration years.

There is quite a bit of talk now about the MLB financial statements for several teams being made public. These statements put teams like Pittsburgh and Florida into bad light, and for once it was not about their on field records. They show that the teams have made tens of millions of dollars but have not put that much of that money into player salaries.

These teams need to start signing their young stars when they believe their young players are going to be well-above average for the long haul. This is tricky because if you jump too soon on a player, you could be left holding the bag at big dollars for very little in the way of results.

Similar to what Scott Kazmir and Nate McLouth have become.

But certain smaller-market teams have reaped the benefits of signing young talent early, like Milwaukee with Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and Corey Hart, the Marlins with Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson; and the Mariners with Franklin Gutierrez and Felix Hernandez.

Other teams like the Braves with Brian McCann (and likely Jason Heyward soon), have done this.

The Pirates have a couple good, young talented ballplayers in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. Alvarez is signed through 2014 (including club options), but it would be good to spend some of that profit and also sign McCutchen after his first full season to a long-term commitment, saving long-term money.

The smaller-market teams need to decide who the players they want to keep. Not just “team” players who can be replaced cheaper through from their farm system, but players who already have been All-Stars.

And who they feel will continue to be All-Stars and league leaders, not league average.

McCutchen appears to be that type of player a team can take that risk.

Many other teams have major decisions to make.

Players like Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill of the A’s, and Jair Jurrjens of the Braves need to be looked at longer term at below future-market rates. 

But the biggest task might fall to the Cincinnati Reds have to decide if Joey Votto (yes, of course!), Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto need to be locked up soon. They all are coming up on their arbitration years.

This would be a great move for the first-place Reds to sign all three, who have plenty of young players in the fold who could keep the Reds at the top of the NL Central standing for many years to come. Similar to what their in-state brethren, the Cleveland Indians, did almost 20 years ago.   

Most of the big market teams seem to like to get their players just before or a year after their first year of arbitration. 

I feel it might be better for the smaller-market teams to take a bigger risk by signing top guys earlier, like Longoria in Tampa and Troy Tulowitzki (his college teammate) in Colorado. The Rockies would be wise to lock up Carlos Gonzalez to a “Longoria type” deal this off season and keep the young slugger locked up in Colorado through age 30.

It sure worked for the Rays.

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During Monday night’s St. Louis Cardinals loss to the last-place (and worst record in baseball) Pittsburgh Pirates, Albert Pujols was 3-for-5 with a double, raising his batting average to .322.

I know this stat is not important to saber heads (please bear with us), but for this argument it is imperative.

Meanwhile, on the west coast, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto went 1-for-4 in a 13-5 drubbing by the now offensively resurgent San Francisco Giants. That effort dropped Votto’s season average to .323, a single point above Pujols.

With Pujols ahead in the National League in home runs (33) and RBI (92), the batting crown is the only leg of the Triple Crown he does lead.

Adan Dunn, with 31 jacks, and Votto, with 29 dingers, are right behind Phat Albert in the HR race. And with 86 RBI, Votto is six back of Pujols, I believe Albert is safe in both power departments. He is on a roll with the power and when that happens, usually a tidal wave of home runs (and RBI) ensue.

In fact, Albert’s August barrage of nine home runs, 20 RBI while hitting .436 is what has put him back into the Triple Crown race.

While Votto is leading with a .323 average entering Wednesday’s games, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is currently hitting .319 while Atlanta’s Martin Prado is at .317. Both could also end up with a higher average than Pujols in his quest to become baseball’s first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastremski in 1967*.

*If you have never looked into Yaz’ stretch run in 1967, when he was not only attempting to win the Triple Crown, but more importantly, trying to lead Boston to the AL Pennant, you need to look into it. It is perhaps the best clutch performance of any player of all time.  

While fending off Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago (what no Yankees?) in a four-team race for the pennant, Yaz went 7-for-8 in his final two games with a double, HR, and six RBI including a 4-for-4 performance on the final day. During the September stretch run, Yaz hit .417 with nine homers, but hit .541 with four homers and 14 RBI over the last 10 games.

It was truly a remarkable performance.

Pujols is starting to turn it on with his incredible month of August, but it is probably the batting average category which could forestall any thoughts of a Triple Crown.

But despite all of Albert’s greatness, there is one guy who can keep Albert from winning the Triple Crown. Joey Votto, right?

Wrong.

It is Omar Infante of the Atlanta Braves.

What? Yes, you saw it correctly. Infante is the one player who can keep Albert Pujols from winning this years Triple Crown.

Entering today, Infante is hitting .349 this season as a utility player for the first place Braves, and was having such a fine season at the break, he even made his first All-Star team.

But he only has 342 plate appearances thus far, and with the Braves already playing 126 games, Infante currently needs 391 to qualify (3.1 Plate Appearances per team game played).

Omar is not just a utility player anymore, and has been a regular in Bobby Cox’s lineup since late July. And Omar is not slowing down now that he is a regular. He has hit a robust .370/.400/.560/.960 OPS clip for August (37-100) with four home runs.

This is coming off him hitting .429 in July (27-63).

With Atlanta only 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia, Cox has no reason not to play the red-hot Infante every day. With Chipper Jones out for the season, Infante is now the starting second baseman, with Martin Prado moving from second over to third.

Even when Troy Glaus comes back, I still see Infante in the lineup every day until the end of the season. 

So let’s do the math.

Infante has 342 PA, but needs 502 to qualify for the batting title. For a conservative estimate, lets give him four PA for each of the next 36 games the Braves have left.

That will allow for some games of five PA, while he may sit a game to get some rest. He may even be dropped in the batting order, who knows? He has hit in every spot in the lineup this season but fifth, but has been in the leadoff spot the last couple weeks.

That gives him another 144 plate appearances (36 games x 4 PA per = 144), and add that to his current 342 would give Infante 486 PA for the season. That is still 16 PA short of qualifying for the title.

Lets also say that Infante (even after his very hot July and August), hits only around .320 the rest of the way. Infante does not walk much (another no-no for any saber head HOF consideration), so lets say all his 144 PA become actual at bats.  

If Infante gets 46 hits in his 144 remaining at bats (a .319 average), he will end up .33978 for the season (158 for 465). This leads Votto and Pujols at their current averages for the batting title.

But under our situation, Infante is still 16 PA short of a title. This is where playing with the numbers comes into play. MLB rules regarding a batting title state in order to become eligible, a player must accumulate 3.1 PA for every team games played, or 502 PA.

But if the player with the highest average in a league fails to meet the minimum plate-appearance requirement, the remaining at-bats until qualification are hypothetically considered hitless at-bats; if his recalculated batting average still tops the league, he is awarded the title.

Thus if we give Infante an additional 16 “hitless” at bats to a total of 481, he would then have a batting average of .32848, still about five points higher than Votto or Pujols is hitting right now. Reduce Infante by one hit, and his average would then be .32640. Reduce by another hit (only 156 hits/481 AB) would reduce his average to .32432, still slightly above where Votto and Pujols are.

This tactic of adding “hitless” at bats was started in 1967, and was implemented most recently in 1996 when Tony Gwynn won the batting title while only having 498 PA.

I believe Infante will hit around .320 (or better) the rest of the season, and pose an issue for the batting title and possible Pujols Triple Crown. At the end of the season with an average in the .326 to .333 range…after the hitless at bats are added.

This is all moot of course if Votto or Adam Dunn, Carlos Gonzalez, or even Martin Prado gets hot at their specialties and pushes Pujols out of one or more of the other two categories. 

Throw in a Cincinnati and St. Louis Divisional race down the stretch and the last six weeks become even more interesting for Pujols, Votto, and the rest of the National League.

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A story in today’s New York Post quotes CC Sabathia after his 17th win yesterday, “I’m here,” Sabathia said. “Hundred percent.”

Sabathia is referring to the clause in his contract to opt-out after next season. CC was not sure he or his family would like the hustle of New York, and being Californians, wanted the option to go back to the west coast.

“I think you know I’ve built a house here, right?” CC said. “My kids go to school here. We live here year round. So I’m not going anywhere.”

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When the Colorado Rockies fired their manager Clint Hurdle last season, the Rockies were 18-28, and had lost seven of their last 10. The Rockies named Jim Tracy as interim manager and he “turned around” the Rockies, guiding the team to a 74-42 record (.638) the rest of the way and into the 2009 NL playoffs.

It is ironic that Hurdle was replaced midseason, because that is how Hurdle got his first managerial job. Buddy Bell was fired 22 games into the 2002 season, and Hurdle was Bell’s replacement.

Tracy replaced Hurdle at a point where the Rockies were nine games back of the NL Wild Card, but ended up winning the Wild Card by five games.

What really happened though was Tracy did nothing to help his team win, except to let them play ball. Tracy had the benefit that their best player, Troy Tulowitzki, started hitting, as did the rest of the lineup. And the expected good, young pitching began to perform better.

Tulo hit only .226 for the first two months that year with a dismal .314 SLG. For the final four months, he hit .351 with a .643 SLG. That production helped boost the entire team, and when your big guy is pounding the ball, wins usually come in bunches.

Another factor for Tracy is that he appeared laid back and did not change much; he just let the guys play. That tactic is the positive theme for the majority of good team turnarounds after managerial changes.

Since 1987, there have been 81 midseason managerial changes, one of which was in 1996 when Tommy Lasorda retired as Dodger manager after suffering a heart attack. Of those 80 changes due to firings, only 19 teams played better than .500 baseball after the change was made, some just barely.

This does not include the changes that were made too early or late in the season to have a definitive impact.

And only five teams made the playoffs following that change: the 1988 Boston Red Sox, the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Houston Astros and last year’s Rockies.

Just six percent (5/80) of those teams which switched managers since 1987, made a good enough turn around to make the playoffs. Prior to 1987, there were 183 midseason changes (those not including the first or last 20 games of a season), with about 24 percent improving to a plus .500 team after the change.

Only two teams have made it to the World Series after making a midseason managerial change, the 1978 Yankees and 2003 Marlins. Both times, a more controlling manager was replaced with a more laid-back guy.

In 1978, Billy Martin constantly fought with players and management, and was replaced by a more subdued Bob Lemon. In 2003, Jeff Torborg’s hands-on approach was replaced by “let ’em play” Jack McKeon*, who at 72 was the oldest manager to win the World Series.

* It is interesting to note that McKeon has replaced THREE different managers after a midseason firing, and all three times has led that team to a BETTER than .500 record. In 1988, Larry Bowe was fired by the San Diego Padres after a 16-30 start, and McKeon came in and lead the Padres to a 67-48 record.

In 1997, Ray Knight was let go by the Cincinnati Reds after a 43-36 start, with McKeon finishing up at 33-30. Finally, in that magical Marlins season, Torborg went 16-22 before being canned and having Trader Jack take over.

Similarly, Steve O’Neill did the same thing for three different teams. And Cito Gaston has turned around the Blue Jays on two separate occasions.

Other teams making the World Series were the 1932 and 1938 Chicago Cubs (both obviously lost), the 1981 Kansas City Royals (strike season), the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers (Harvey’s Wallbangers) and the 1983 Philadelphia Phillies.

In almost every case, the team changed from a more hands-on guy to a more laid-back guy. But in most cases of a team making the playoffs after a midseason firing, the team was already pretty good.

For example, the Marlins team that McKeon guided to the 2003 World Series was 79-83 the year before but added Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate to guide the young pitchers. Plus, many new faces were on the 2003 team, and McKeon was helped midseason by the call-up of a 20-year-old Miguel Cabrera, fortifying an already decent lineup.

Also, the 1977 Yankees were coming off a prior World Series title in 1977.  The 1988 Red Sox, who were 43-42 under John McNamara, changed to Joe Morgan who led the Sox to a 46-31 record the rest of the way and a playoff berth. Those Red Sox were coming off a down 1987 season, but had made the World Series in 1986.

All other playoff teams were already good, but did need that push of less stress and turmoil in the dugout. However, those teams that flat out stink and change managers, well, they really don’t get better. They just stink with a different guy calling the shots.

That just goes to show that good managers are usually a product of their team’s talent. Terry Francona managed four seasons in Philadelphia, but never had a winning record there. He is a flat out genius in Boston, though.

Casey Stengel was a much better manager when he had Mickey Mantle on his team when he managed the Brooklyn Dodgers and Boston Bees in the 1930’s and Boston Braves in the 1940’s.

Many of the great managers in the game have been fired and then hired midseason to replace someone else. Tony LaRussa and Sparky Anderson were both hired and turned around teams, but LaRussa was also fired, too, in midseason as were most good managers.

So were Jack McKeon and Steve O’Neill, those two guys who turned around three different teams midseason.

I have always thought that stability in the manager’s job is a key to consistent winning baseball. While most new in-season managers last less than four seasons, and most don’t even get to keep the job the following year, seven different managers have been hired in midseason and ended up managing that team for 10 plus seasons.

They are John McGraw, Bill Terry, Jimmy Dykes, Earl Weaver, Tom Kelly, Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa. Except for Dykes, all the other managers have multiple pennants under their belts. They may not have won every season, but they did not become terrible managers when they did not win titles, and eventually came back and won titles again.

While good players make good managers, baseball front offices are usually quick to pull a trigger on the manager. As Todd Helton said when Hurdle got fired, “he was the scapegoat, but he didn’t give up the big hit while pitching, and he did not strike out with men on base.”

Good managers usually cannot make really bad teams better, but some bad managers can win with enormous talent. So far this season, the Baltimore Orioles have performed well under new manager Buck Showalter, but the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks are basically the same teams with different managers. While the Marlins have some bigger stars, namely Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, I believe the Orioles have more overall talent.

Before a GM wants to make a managerial change, he might want to evaluate the on-field talent first. If you are a good team, coming off a winning year or recent title and were thought to challenge again this season, then changing managers might be a good idea. Those teams that made the playoffs after a change are great examples. 

Just have that manager be laid back to just let the players play and not try and do too much. Tracy, Gaston, Lemon and even Jerry Manuel for the 2008 New York Mets and also, do it early enough to give the team time to adjust to the new manager.

But if you are a bad team, and you believe a change in manager will help “spark the team,” it might be wise to get some better players.

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The answer is absolutely not.

The Bleacher Report editorial staff asked me my opinion of the designated hitter. Do guys like Vladimir Guerrero of the Texas Rangers and David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox help the game, or is their specialization bad for baseball? I consider myself a baseball purist (I dislike artificial turf, 12-man pitching staffs, innings limits, pitch counts, and the Wild Card) but I do like the DH.

Certain hitters in 2010, such as Ortiz and Guerrero, were thought to have been done as major league hitters. The Angels made the hasty decision to believe Hideki Matusi’s heroics in the 2009 World Series would translate over to 2010. The Halos signed him instead of re-signing Vlad.

However, Guerrero and Ortiz have had a resurgence in 2010 and are big reasons why their teams are in playoff contention. If there were no DH, then these players would likely have not had the same type seasons, if they were playing at all.

Since the April 6 game in 1973 when Ron Blomberg of the New York Yankees was the first ever DH to have a plate appearance, this position has allowed many players to further their careers in the comfy confines of the “half player.” 

Those early days included DHs like Orlando Cepeda (who could have been the first DH), Frank Robinson of the California Angels, Tony Oliva of the Minnesota Twins, Billy Williams of the Oakland A’s, Harmon Killebrew of the Kansas City Royals, and Hank Aaron of the Milwaukee Brewers.

These players were all former 1960s hitting stars (most are Hall of Famers) who were near the end of their careers, but while slower in the field, could still be productive with the bat.

For instance, Robinson hit 30 home runs in 1973 as DH, and Oliva, who was often injured and had terrible knees, extended his career by a few years.

The game at that time was not in a boom period. Pitching dominated. Runs were at a premium, and the AL owners (who voted 8 to 4 in favor of the DH), wanted to boost run production and attendance. It was the second time within the last five years that baseball made rules changes for improved run production.

After the 1968 season, affectionately called the Year of the Pitcher, the height of the mound was lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches.

And young fans (such as myself at the time) were able to see big time former stars (such as all-time home run king Aaron), able to still play baseball. We wanted to see Aaron hit. Most of these DHs still played the field a little bit, too, but probably would not have a roster spot and forced into retirement if the DH were not in effect.

In 1973, several young players also got the opportunity for more early career at bats. Oscar Gamble (23) of the Cleveland Indians likely had his career kick-started a little earlier with the help of the DH. Even though Gamble already had major league time accumulated, the increased frequency of his plate appearances were the result of the DH. Others, like Carlos May and Hal McRae, played more often because of the DH position.

The DH has now evolved into not just a full-time position, but also a rotating spot in the lineup. For example, the New York Yankees regularly give one of their position players a “half day off” by letting them DH in a game to give them a break.

This is another example of what baseball has always loved, seeing the big stars play more often. Who wants to go to their first baseball game (a day game following a night contest) and not see Alex Rodriguez or Vlad Guerrero in the game? The DH spot allows for this star player to still play.

The great Joe DiMaggio retired early because he wasn’t at his best in 1951, his last season. DiMaggio primarily meant his play in the field. If the DH weres present and in full swing in 1952, DiMaggio could have still had a few more productive seasons with the bat while a young Mickey Mantle assumed full-time duties in center field.

And maybe a few more young fans today would have been able to say they once saw Joe DiMaggio play for the Yankees. 

This is similar to the All-Star Game played every year. It does not matter how good Alex Gonzalez played for Toronto in the first half, the fans want to see Derek Jeter start at shortstop. If some National League first baseman were having a “career year” in the first half, sorry Charlie, but Phat Albert is playing at the first sack.

Since the game (and people’s jobs) are so determined by wins and losses, if an aging DH is not producing, he likely will not keep his jobs. That is why managers with not a whole lot of tenure will only play guys who are productive, not being able to afford to sit on a certain player.

Guys like Harold Baines, Hal McRae, Edgar Martinez, and Paul Molitor all succeeded at the DH position because they were still productive. Frank Thomas was the same way, and when he stopped hitting, he was “retired.”

Of that group, only Molitor is currently in the Hall of Fame, although Thomas will probably get in quickly. Pushes for Baines and Martinez (although eligible only one season thus far), have fallen on voters’ deaf ears. While Martinez still may have that Bert Blyleven push if he continues to struggle, it shows that only the “best of the best” at any postion will make the hallowed Hall.

It is not like a bunch of aging veterans are hanging on to accumulate Hall-ready numbers. Even if Ortiz produces a year of two more, he is not Hall-worthy, while Guerrero probably would be as he was a better all-around player for his entire career.

The game is about winning and only the good players will play.

Ask former Seattle Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu how quickly things can change when your team does not play well. Where Wakamatsu had not built up any “winning tenure,” a manager like Boston’s Terry Francona can weather the David Ortiz storm a little longer, hoping he breaks out of his early season malaise. But most managers need to win now.

And it was good for the game overall to see Big Papi become a threat once again, as it was for Vlad Geurrero. Two stars who the fans want to see, not because they are “padding their stats” but because they are productive players who are helping their teams win games now.

Don’t the Angels wished they had Vlad back this season?

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There were quite a few trades made at this year’s non-waiver deadline, but not as many moves as I thought there would. With so many equally talented, but non-impact players available after the big guns—Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt—were gone, it became a buyer’s market.

Some teams, like the Toronto Blue Jays, would not trade any of their valuable commodities (Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, Jason Frasor) unless they received top dollar and/or equal return back.

Second-tier prospects do not make a good team better, and many teams knew that. Many teams also valued their young players much higher (and thus cheaper in cost) than the buying teams.

Of all the trades, however, the most important one was the first one—Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers.

This is important for many reasons.

First, it gives the Rangers a legitimate No. 1 ace starter for the first time as a playoff contending team. They never had an ace in the late 1990s when they made the playoffs three times, nor any of the decent teams they had scattered throughout the 1970s and ’80s.

Please do not confuse guys who had a decent year or two like Aaron Sele, Rick Helling, Ken Hill, and Bobby Witt with the term ace.

Lee is a true ace, a pitcher who will go up against the best. He has stacked up against some of the best teams so far, including the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox, and pitched well.

His performance in last year’s playoff push and postseason classified Lee as an ace.

Second, an ace on top of the rotation takes a team to different heights, pushing them to play better and feel more confident. For example, when your team’s ace is starting, don’t you feel better about that particular game?

So do the players playing behind him.

I remember when Ron Guidry was pitching in 1978, and every time his turn came up in the rotation, you just knew the Yankees would win. And they usually did.

I specifically remember one day a group of us were playing stick ball and someone asked who was pitching for the Yankees that night. Another kid said “Guidry” and I said out loud, “Well, that’s another win for the Yankees.” After all, Guidry was 13-0 at that point in early July.

Unfortunately, the Milwaukee Brewers beat up on Louisiana Lightning , and handed Guidry his first loss. While the Yankee starter was mentioned, no one bother to say that Yankee-killer Mike Caldwell was pitching for the Brewers that night.

I might not have proclaimed a Yankee victory that quickly.

Steve Carlton had that same knack with his teams to playing better behind him. How can you explain that his 1972 Philadelphia Phillies team, with 59 total wins, but won 27 of his starts that season?

When pitchers throw strikes and work quickly, they keep their fielders in the game. And when fielders are happy and not bored in the field, they usually perform better.

Despite Lee only being 1-2 in his five Rangers starts, the team has picked up 3.5 games on the second place Angels since Lee’s arrival. The arrival of Lee has set a different tone for this franchise and its players.

They have more overall confidence and know they are a true contender.

Third, the Rangers made this move FOR the playoffs, not to get to the playoffs. Although they have increased their lead with Lee in the fold, I still believe the Rangers would win the AL West regardless if they acquired Lee or not.

This trade is similar to when the Angels traded with the Atlanta Braves for Mark Teixeira prior to the 2008 trading deadline. The Angels has a great lead that year, but wanted to bolster their lineup for the potential matchup against one of the behemoths from the AL East. 

The Lee trade will work out much better than the Teixeira deal did for the Angels. As a proven dominant ace, Lee will have a more influencing force upon a playoff series than does a single hitter in a lineup.

Lee has already shown he can dominate a World Series-winning lineup like he did last season against the New York Yankees. Overall, in four postseason starts, Lee was 4-0, with a 1.56 ERA and 0.818 WHIP, including two victories over the Yankees.

Lee will start two games in the first round, and depending how the games play out, could go three games in each of the seven-game series rounds.

If he pitches like he is capable (and why even doubt it?), an opponent has to pretty much guarantee it will win all the other games Lee does NOT pitch.

And with Lee in the No. 1 spot, all the other good Rangers pitchers slide down into the No. 2 and No. 3 rolls.

Yankee fans? Do you feel confident with AJ Burnett going up against Rangers young 8-1, 3.31 ERA dynamo Tommy Hunter * with a Lee win already in the pocket? How about the rejuvenated C.J. Wilson firing BB’s against the lefty suspect Yankee lineup?

New Yankee Austin Kearns better have a great night that game on National TV! No, I don’t believe he is up for that challenge.

*Hunter is a pretty darned good pitcher who breezed through the Rangers minor leagues . He was the ace at the University of Alabama when David Robertson was the Crimson Tide closer.

In fact, K-Rob blew the Super Regional against North Carolina in the ninth inning of a game which Hunter started and somewhat outdueled Daniel Bard .

Like when a good hitter acquired lengthens an already good lineup, Lee lengthens a pretty good starting rotation the Rangers already had.

That is trouble for the opposition.

Fourth, as an economical pitcher who throws strikes, Lee regularly will pitch into the eighth and mostly the ninth innings. For example, last year in his four postseason games, Lee threw two complete games, reached the ninth inning one start, and into the eighth in the fourth.

This means that in the other games Lee does not start, the Rangers will have a rested bullpen. And this side of the San Diego Padres, the Rangers have perhaps the best bullpen in the major leagues.

Lastly, Cliff Lee wants the damn ball.

He will not be babied by Ron Washington like a young hurler on an innings limit or pitch count. The Rangers know this is their window to the World Series, as Lee will likely not re-sign with Texas after this season.

And he will not ask out of a playoff game like Johan Santana did as a member of the Minnesota Twins back in 2004 against the Yankees. An elimination game, no less!

You might have to pry the ball out of Lee’s hands in this postseason.

And what about coming to the Rangers in the July 9 deal?

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After the Trenton Thunder’s 10-4 loss to the New Britain Rock Cats Sunday night, it was announced that Thunder third baseman Brandon Laird was promoted to Triple-A Scranton.

“I was trying to put a good season together, Larid said. “Up until now, I feel like I did. Now I’m getting my chance to go up to Scranton and hopefully help them win. I was just waiting for my chance.

“I am excited about the opportunity.”

Laird definitely deserved the promotion, hitting .293 with a .355 OBP, .523 slugging percentage, and .875 OPS this season in Trenton with 23 HRs and 90 RBI. For most of the season, Laird was leading the entire minor leagues in RBI.

Laird’s chance was improved when Triple-A third baseman Chad Tracy opted out of his contract and became a free agent. With the Yankees possibly looking for another corner infielder, and Tracy hitting well in Scranton, the opt out was a puzzling move.  

Trenton manager Tony Franklin was extremely happy for Laird, who is the utmost professional in every aspect of the game.

“The kid was putting together a fine season, and he deserves to go,” Franklin said. “You would hope that you could lose four or five guys with those types of seasons. We’re in the business of getting guys to higher levels as quickly as we can. What he was doing, it was hard not to notice.”

Franklin also believes that Laird has what it takes to make it all the way.

“I think he’s going to perform great at Triple-A,” he said. “If he does, there’s a chance he might be looking at the majors very soon.”

Laird is a very pure, natural hitter, with power to all fields and the ability to make good consistent contact. He can hit the fastball on both sides of the plate, and also hits the breaking pitch very well.

In early June, I published a more in depth report on Laird here.

To replace Laird on the Trenton roster, the Yankees promoted Tampa second baseman Corban Joseph. He was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2008, and is in the middle of his third season as a pro.

Joseph, who has a sweet left-handed swing and some good pop, will not excite Trenton fans the same way Laird did with massive power. However, but he will contribute a steady bat and better than average defense.

I saw Joseph during my week in Tampa, and his swing is very smooth to the ball, like he wan’t even swinging the bat. The ball jumped off his bat, the way the ball does when solid contact is consistently made.

The home run I saw Joseph hit was out of the park in an eye-blink, soaring high over the right-centerfield fence. It was hit off of a good left-handed pitcher who has good control and a nice curve ball.

Corban has good power to the gaps, and for a 6’0″, 170-pound player (maybe), he has surprising extra-base hit power the other way to left field.

He goes up the middle well, and as all great hitters do, Corban keeps his hands inside the ball well. One particular single off the same lefty five days later was an inside fastball, which Joseph pummelled up the middle for a clean, hard single.

He is susceptible to down and away breaking pitches, especially with two strikes. Joseph does have a good eye at the plate, taking quite a few pitches off the edge and getting the calls.

But he might take too many pitches, several times taking called strikes and getting down in the count early 0-2 or 1-2. These at bats usually ended with a strikeout or weakly hit ball.

Both promoted players are moving into a playoff push by their new team. While Laird was disappointed about not finishing the season with his current team (he has played three consecutive seasons with fellow southern-Californian Austin Romine), he is excited to get a chance in Scranton’s playoff push.

“I’ve been here (Trenton) the whole year, and we’re a close team. We’re looking good for the playoffs,” he said. “I wish I could be here to help them get to the playoffs and hopefully win it. I hope they do when I’m gone. But now I have to go up and help them try to win it. They’re in a pennant race, just like us.”

Something about Laird screams winner. In fact, he has been a winner his entire baseball life. In high school, Laird’s teams won 115 games and four championships.

After high school, as a key member of the Team USA Youth, Laird helped win the Gold Medal. He then won on the Junior National team, then at Cypress College, leading his team to the title game.

In the professional ranks, he won championships with the Gulf Coast Yankees his first season, and then with High-A Tampa last year. In Charleston, Laird made a huge impression, pounding 23 home runs, including a remarkable 11 home runs in August.

However, the RiverDogs fell short in the end by a single game in the first half from making the Sally League playoffs.

This season is Laird’s best by far, with power and consistency throughout the entire year. He also has his share of clutch moments. While he has put up real good seasons in the past, this season has not seen Laird get into any type of long-term slump.

Laird is a proven winner with a consistent power bat and improving glove. The Scranton Yankees can sure use a guy like that during their playoff push.

If he keeps it up, Laird will have his opportunity in the Bronx sooner rather than later.

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This is the second installment of my starting pitching capsules from my trip down to the Florida State League to watch the High A Tampa Yankees play.

I saw quite a few games which included four of the five starting pitchers. The one starter I did not see pitch was Dellin Betances.

The first capsule can be seen here, and included right-handed pitcher Adam Warren and left-handed pitcher Manuel Banuelos. I like both those guys, and can see Warren (who reminds me of Greg Maddux) and Banuelos (who reminds me of Johan Santana with a better curve ball), getting to the Bronx by 2012.

Which reminds me, I am not saying these pitchers will have those types of careers, but they have similarities.

After my report on Warren, he was promoted to Double A Trenton where he has made two starts, and has a 2-0 record and 2.25 ERA. I saw him again in Trenton and we spoke a bit about his season. I mentioned to him that I saw Graham Stoneburner for Charleston, wrote a report, and then he was promoted to High A Tampa. I then saw Warren pitch in Tampa, wrote the report, and he was then promoted to Trenton.

I asked Warren who else does he want me to see so they can get promoted. He replied, “keep coming to my starts.” He is very mild-mannered kid, and has a good sense of humor.

This capsule includes another left-handed/right-handed due, Shaeffer Hall and aforementioned Stoneburner. I saw both of these guys pitch for Low A Charleston in early May and again in Tampa.

Shaeffer Hall – LHP   6″0″, 185 lbs.

Hall was the RiverDogs opening day starter, throwing six innings and allowing three hits, no walks while striking out four. Of the 13 other outs recorded, Hall generated nine ground outs, including one double play.

The first time I met Shaeffer Hall, he was in the Charleston clubhouse on their trip north to the Lakewood (NJ) Blue Claws.

Here was my first question:

Joseph DelGrippo: “Last year in college, Stephen Strasburg threw a no-hitter against the Air Force Academy. Do you know the other college pitcher who threw a no-hitter against Air Force last year?

Shaeffer Hall: Laughing out loud saying, “Yeah, you’re looking at him, but I guess you already knew that.”

Yes, I did. Hall threw an early season February nine inning no-hitter for the University of Kansas. The Jayhawks have a good baseball program but it is overlooked because of a great Kansas hoops team and other well-known Big 12 baseball programs such as Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Later that season, Hall pitched a complete game shutout against Dartmouth in the NCAA tournament. He was the Jayhawks Friday night starter in 2009, indicating he was the ace of that staff.

However, he did not have a great season going 5-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 15 starts, but his walk rate of 0.97 per nine innings attracted the Yankees. New York likes to take college pitchers who they feel pitched well but were the victim of “metal bat syndrome.”

Hall appears to fit into that category. He is also a hard worker, who worked to lose about 20 pounds from his college frame. I noticed the difference from his college photos to his body type in Lakewood.

Due to a slight shoulder strain, Hall only threw nine professional innings last season for short season Staten Island. The 2010 season is basically Hall’s first full year in pro baseball.

It’s funny, but Hall has had such a good season in his first full year in pro baseball, but in the two games I saw him pitch were his two worst outings of the year.

While I was “good luck” for Stoneburner and Warren, I am like a pariah of sorts for Hall.

Hall is a fastball, curveball, change-up guy who relies primarily on precise location to be effective. And based upon his results this season, he does have great control and command within the strike zone. He works quickly (a great trait) and can throw all three of his pitches for strikes.

RiverDogs pitching coach Jeff Ware agrees. “He has great command of all three of his pitches. When he has all three working and keeping the ball down, he is on top of his game. He can strike you out and can induce lots of ground balls. Schaef is also well prepared and hard-working. It is a great combination.”

Hall needs to be precise because he does not throw that hard, mostly 87-89, barely touching 90 a few times, but has some fastballs hovering around the 85 range. His curve ball is a nice weapon (mostly around 74), but while it has good bite, it is not consistent with its depth. Shaeffer sometimes leaves this pitch up, especially to right-handed hitters.

Like almost all Yankee farm hand pitchers, Hall’s out pitch is his change-up. It will arrive normally in the 76 range, and has decent bite, running slightly away from righties. It is not as good as Banuelos’ on an every pitch basis but it does have the ability to get lot of weakly hit balls in play.

Hall needs to also have an umpire who has a liberal outlook on strikes. In the game I witnessed in May up in Lakewood, the umpire has a very tight zone and would not give Hall any pitches on the corner. It forced Hall to bring his pitches over the plate more, where they proceeded to get hit.

In speaking with Hall after that game, he did not blame the umpiring, but said the zone was a little “tighter” than the day before. “I wasn’t getting many calls on the corners,” Hall said. “But I still need to work around that and throw better pitches when guys got on base.”

But that is what happens when a pitcher does not have “put away” stuff. Hall needs to work the strike zone in and out, down and away. If Hall does not get the pitches on the corner called strikes, the hitters will adjust to the tighter zone. And Hall can get hit hard when he brings the ball back over the outer and inner thirds of the plate.

In Tampa, it was more of the same. Lots of hits against Hall, who despite not walking anyone, was battered around. Some hits were dinks and dunks, but others were really belted. He seemed to not have command of his fastball. Around 88 with the fastball and similar as in Lakewood with the curve ball (74-75) and change-up (76).

Shaeffer Hall is a very nice pitcher, but is likely not going to be in any future Yankee plans. They just do not like that type of pitcher, a guy who doesn’t have dominant stuff with “great upside.”

Hall reminds me of former Yankee Chase Wright, but I expect Hall to get more than just a cursory major league look. Mark Buehrle and maybe Jamie Moyer would also be good comparisons to what type of pitcher Hall is stuff wise.

Hall might be best suited as a left-handed relief specialist, but deserves to progress as a starter for at least another season or two.

Hall is a great kid who really likes the Yankees organization. My time in Tampa was during the Cliff Lee trade scenarios and Hall, Stoneburner and Adam Warren were asking me about what I had heard.

Graham Stoneburner – RHP  6’1″, 180 lbs

I also saw Stoneburner pitch twice, once in Lakewood and once in Tampa. He was great both times, and you can read about the Lakewood game here.

Stoneburner has a power fastball, above average to plus slider and a vastly improving change-up. When I saw him in Lakewood back in early May, I was told by one scout that Graham did not possess a good change. But his performance in that game, and other which followed proved that assessment incorrect.

The change-up was pretty good and he threw it quite often, generating lots of swings and misses. It had good downward bite as did his slider and two-seam fastball, which moves in both directions.

When asked about the change-up, Stoneburner said, “I think my change-up is coming along really well. It was pretty good all spring and I have more confidence in throwing, even in some fastball counts. The more I throw it, the better I get a feel for it.”  

That is the important thing about the change-up. Some pitchers don’t get a good feel for it, then they scrap it for long periods of time, which is a huge mistake.

It is a credit to Stoneburner that he continues to go with the pitch in different situations.

Graham has an explosive fastball which reached up to 96 MPH in the Lakewood start. In fact, in Stoneburner’s 95th pitch against Blue Claws that day saw him bring a 95 MPH up and in fastball past the No. 5 hitter Darin Ruff.

Stoneburner is a power pitcher to the core. He goes right after hitters and doesn’t mince his pitches as he throws strike after strike. He also has the rare ability to throw that hard and still command his arsenal within the strike zone.

His slider was consistently around 80-81 showing good, late break. Many people have talked about him needing to “tighten” up the slider, but I did not see any real need to alter that pitch as it appeared the same both times I saw him pitch. Stoneburner even told me in Tampa that he has thrown the slider the same way all season.

With his really good fastball/slider combination, some people have talked about Stoneburner becoming a power reliever as he moves further up the Yankee ladder. Maybe near the end of this season, that might happen as Double A Trenton goes into a playoff push and Stoneburner has already eclipsed 104 innings.

I spoke to him in July at a Tampa game and he feels he will be a 130-140 inning pitcher this year. It is a possibility, and I would like to see hin challenged again this season. But the Yankees do not like to promote a pitcher two times in one season, and with this being Graham’s first pro season, it is unlikely he will be moved to Trenton.

But with four pitches which he commands well, Stoneburner can be a real good starting pitcher. He has shown that this season in two levels, and owns one of the best WHIP’s for a starting pitcher in the minor leagues with a 0.90. 

Although he has a somewhat long arm action in the back, Stoneburner’s delivery appears to be consistent, and the control numbers are good. He has issued only 26 walks in 104 IP (2.25 per 9 IP), a great number considering how hard Stoneburner throws.

He reminds me of Tim Hudson, a sinewy guy with a smallish frame who throws hard, with control, and has a good slider.

While the Yankees always trade away their fringy prospects, Stoneburner is much more than a fringe prospect and can be a vital member of the Yankees pitching staff as soon as 2012.

He should not be traded, but given every opportunity to continue up the ranks as a starting pitcher.

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The Texas Rangers trade for ace left-hander Cliff Lee is expected to make the Rangers a team to fear this 2010 postseason.

Yes, the Rangers will win the AL West, even with the Los Angeles Angels obtaining Dan Haren in a recent trade.

In that trade for Lee, the Seattle Mariners received major league first baseman Justin Smoak and three highly-rated minor leaguers including durable 21-year-old, Double A right-handed starting pitcher Blake Beavan.  

There is one major difference in each teams trade for another ace pitcher: the Rangers are going to lose Lee to free agency while the Angels are able to keep Haren for another tow (or three) seasons.

And that poses a unique question. Should teams trade their wanted stars in the final years of their contracts or keep them and obtain draft picks?

Most of the times yes, and there are many reasons why.

With draft picks, teams do not yet know how recently drafted players will adjust to the wooden bats as hitters, or how pitchers will fact an entire lineup of solid hitters.

For example, Billy Rowell was a “can’t miss” left-handed high school power hitter from New Jersey. After being selected ninth overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2006, it is safe to say Rowell “can miss,” and it is usually the breaking pitches thrown his way.

Rowell is in his THIRD full season of High A ball, and will strike out about 150 times this year. The Orioles swung and missed, too, as Tim Lincecum was the next selection in that draft by the San Francisco Giants.

Think the O’s would make that trade straight up now? They might even throw in their first round pick in 2009 for another shot at Mike Leake, drafted four picks later.

I broke down the drafts of 2002-2005 into three sections: Top 10 picks, picks from 11-20 and picks from 21-30.

Of the 50 selections in that (Denard) time Span, there were 39 players who made the majors thus far from being selected in the top 10 of those seasons. In the 11-20 group, 309 players also have made it to the major leagues. The bottom third (21-30) contributed only 29 major leaguers thus far.

I also counted those players who were “impact” guys. Those players who I felt were bona fide stars, or were productive major league starters. The top 10’s produced 19 impact players, the second group of ten selections produced 14 impact guys, while the final ten selections in each round produced 11 impact guys.

The further down the ladder in selections within the first round, the less likely a team will draft someone who will make and impact on their major league roster.

The draft is a crap shoot, and puts even more emphasis on the amateur scouts which roam the countryside.

Lets “for example” a situation where the Mariners kept Lee. Maybe Jack Z thinks this 2011 draft is very deep and wants the draft picks. So the season ends and Lee files for free agency.

As is probable, the Yankees then sign Lee to a multi-year contract and the Mariners get the draft picks. What kind of player will they get? Well, the Yankees are definitely making the playoffs, and have a good chance to get to (and win) the World Series.

The Mariners would then have the Yankees first round pick near the end of the round plus one of the last supplemental picks. Picks 28-30 do not produce as major leaguers as Top 10 picks produce.

It is easier to produce major league stars when you pick in the upper levels of the draft. Just ask Jack Z. He had two top ten picks as draft guru for the Milwaukee Brewers and he picked Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Much easier when you have so many better players amongst to choose.

For example, when Braun was selected fifth overall in 2005, the Brewers still could have skipped him and taken Troy Tulowitzki two picks later. Or the Brew Crew could have selected Andrew McCutchen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza or Colby Rasmus and received good value, too.

Another factor in determining whether to keep of trade your potential free agent is to analyze where his potential free agent might land. It rarely happens, but if a top 15 draft position team signs your free agent, you do not get their first round pick. They are immune to the compensation rules, and they relinquish their second round pick instead.

Another indication of not getting value for the draft picks is when a team signs two Type A free agents. The higher ranked free agent’s former team gets the first round pick and the lower ranked Type A free agent gets the signing teams second round selection.

This happened in the 2009 draft after the New York Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. All three were Type A free agents but Burnett was ranked third behind highest ranked Type A Teixeira and second ranked Type A Sabathia.

The Angels received the Yankees first round selection (No. 25 overall), the Brewers received the Yankees second round selection (No. 73 overall) and the Blue Jays received the Yankees third round pick (No. 104 overall).

Combined with the supplemental pick, that 104th selection in any draft is not adequate compensation for losing that type A free agent. Especially when you could have traded him for a package of prospects you already know how they can play.

When a team has a highly rated player coveted by many teams willing to pay up for his services, the best action to take is trade, trade, trade .

Get as many players as you can, but key in on impact players . When in doubt, quality is much better than quantity.  

The Mariners did just that and reaped a huge gain from the Rangers, better than they could have hoped for from the two draft picks as compensation.

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Well, Dan Haren was finally traded, but not to the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, or St. Louis Cardinals—three teams that really want another top hurler.

Haren was traded to the Los Angeles Angels for left-handed, back-end starter Joe Saunders and three pitching prospects. None of these returning pitchers were top-10 prospects in the Angels organization.

Kudos to Angels GM Tony Reagins for swooping in late and pulling off this coup.

Several factors indicate that acting Arizona GM Jerry DiPoto jumped the gun and reached on this deal.

First, while Saunders is regarded as a nice pitcher, and will replace Haren on the Diamondbacks rotation, he is not nearly in the same class as Haren. Despite both having similar ERAs, Haren is much more a strikeout pitcher while Saunders pitches to contact.

Not that pitching to contact is bad, but when you add in Haren’s reluctance to walk anyone, his zenith could explode much higher than Saunders’ ever will.

Second, the Diamondbacks were interested in also having teams paying Haren’s entire salary. This money includes about $3 million more this season, $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, plus a $15.5 million 2013 option (or $3.5 million buyout).

Yes, that is more than what Saunders is owed, as Big Joe is still under team control for two more arbitration seasons. Saunders’ two arbitration seasons could net him about $12 million over that span.

The Diamondbacks are saving money, but the money is not as big of a difference as you would think they could have gotten.

Third, the minor league pitchers received aren’t impact-type guys. Patrick Corbin is a 20-year-old who has generated a High-A Cal League 5-3 record with 3.88 ERA and a K/9 rate of 9.5. This is after a Low-A 8-0 record with a 3.86 ERA with a 6.5 K/9 rate.

This is the best minor league guy in the deal, which means the deal is not great for Arizona. Rafael Rodriguez is 25 and an okay guy, but is also a bullpen arm. Unless he miraculously turns into Mariano Rivera, or even Ocatvio Dotel, his career is not going to be noteworthy.

Except for this bad trade.

A player to be named is likely to be Tyler Skaggs, the Angels supplemental first-round pick last year. He is throwing well so far this season, his first full year, but is at least four seasons away.

What the Diamondbacks did not do is center their deal with the Angels over their top guy, heavy-hitting outfielder Mike Trout, also a 2010 Futures Game participant. Trout is a great combination of power and speed, who also makes great consistent contact.

That’s a far cry from what current third baseman Mark Reynolds offers the Diamondbacks.  

Hint for teams wishing to trade a top player for young talent: Always seek out the other teams’ Futures Game players. Every organization is represented by two players, and they are usually some of the best players in that team’s system!

While the deal clearly favors the Angels, it will not help the Halos this year. It’s more of a trade for 2011 and 2012.

The Texas Rangers are too far ahead in the standings, have the better ace in Cliff Lee, a very solid bullpen, and a much more potent lineup.

I do not believe they will stumble over the next two months, and they might be the team to beat in the American League.

So, the Diamondbacks received a lesser Major League talent, did not save as much money on the deal as you would expect, and did not receive the Angels’ best prospects.

Not a good first attempt in acting GM Jerry DiPoto’s first foray into the wheeling and dealing of high-stakes baseball deals.

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