Kuzul

Two pitchers with heavily decorated resumes.

The first, CC Sabathia, has more of a track record and is completing his 10th full season in the Majors.

The second, Tim Lincecum, affectionately known as “The Freak,” is in his fourth season, and has two Cy Young Awards.

However, both are known as workhorses, the proverbial baseball term that gives revered status to those pitchers who miss very few starts to injury and normally throw 200-plus innings per season.

Based upon their sizes, both Sabathia and Lincecum are on the opposite ends of the spectrum of pitchers you would consider workhorses.

CC is a hulky 6’7″ 290-pound behemoth, while Lincecum stands 5’11” and 170 pounds. Yes, even though Tiny Tim appears more slight, he is listed at 170.

Both have thrown a lot of innings in their careers. Sabathia has averaged 31 starts and 210 innings during his first nine full seasons, while Lincecum has averaged 32 starts and 226 innings in his only two full seasons.

In today’s game, those are huge amounts of innings…but somewhere Steve Carlton is laughing.

Both pitchers are headed for similar (if not higher) numbers this year. CC has made 20 starts and Lincecum 19, with both having double-digit wins once again.

Interestingly enough, Sabathia is the only active MLB pitcher who has double-digit wins and a winning record in each season of his career.

But with the similarities between the two pitchers (team workhorse aces) and their differences (body type), which hurler is the more likely pitcher to eventually break down?

I don’t think either one will break down anytime soon. Both have pretty good pitching mechanics. Their arm actions are great, putting less stress on their elbows and shoulders.

But history does provide a glimpse of those types of pitchers who have long careers, and they are not usually the slight of build guys.

There have been 70 pitchers in baseball history who have thrown 3500-plus innings. The leader, of course, is Cy Young, with a ridiculous 7,356 innings. It doesn’t matter what era you are pitching in, that is a preposterous amount of innings.

So, of all these 70 pitchers, only eight are of the recent era. They are Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Dennis Martinez, Jack Morris, and Mike Mussina.

All of the other 62 pitchers played the bulk of their careers before the 1980s.

Almost all of these 70 pitchers were six feet tall or bigger. Ten were under six feet tall, and all but one played before the 20th century, when pitchers threw with less velocity but more often during a season.

The only pitcher under six feet tall who pitched in the modern era was Whitey Ford, who tipped the scales at a robust 5’10”, 178 pounds.

But Ford was a soft-tossing left-handed pitcher who would pepper the corners with moderate fastballs, change ups, and cut pitches (literally). Similar to Glavine, minus the cut balls.

There are not many smallish built pitchers who throw many innings, especially hard-throwing slight of build pitchers like Lincecum. Even Pedro Martinez and his lengthy career, has thrown only 2,827 innings, and he is similar in size to Lincecum with the same velocity.

Martinez, who had tremendous pitching mechanics, ended up having rotator cuff surgery in 2006. His rotator cuff issues began back in 2001 (at age 29) when he missed a good chunk of that year to the injured shoulder.

Lincecum is now 26 years old, but at the same age, Pedro had thrown about 300 more innings than Lincecum will throw this season.  

Sabathia, as of this writing, has thrown 2,027 innings. That is good for 404th place all time. At his current rate, CC will move into the 360th-place range.

He has a workhorse frame, and even with the seven postseason series (and 61 more innings), Sabathia looks as strong as the day he broke into the Majors.

With his slight build, Lincecum should not compile as long a Major League career as Sabathia. He may not break down for major arm surgery like Pedro, but I would not bet against it.

History shows us smaller guys do not last as long or throw as many innings as bigger guys.

But both smaller and bigger guys end up getting surgery. That is the nature of the beast with pitchers.

They say pitchers’ careers are made with their legs, and the arms are just along for the ride. When the legs get tired, the arm gets tired, and that is when injuries occur.

That is why a Major League pitcher who is throwing around 120 pitches can still throw more if his legs are strong, but a guy can be wiped out after 90 if his legs are weak.

From the looks of both pitchers, it appears Sabathia’s legs have a bunch more strength than Lincecum’s.

For that reason, his size, and the longer history of sustained work with no ill effects, I believe CC Sabathia will have the longer career, logging many more innings than “The Freak.”

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With the recent injury to Andy Pettitte, who is expected to be out of the Yankees starting rotation for up to five weeks, it has put the Yankees into a bind regarding their staff.

Pettitte will miss five to six starts, with Sergio Mitre pitching in Andy’s spot in the rotation. Mitre did not fare well last year in a similar role when he started nine games, generating a 3-3 record and 7.16 ERA with a 1.750 WHIP.

But that was the first year after Tommy John surgery, normally not a banner season for pitchers coming back from it. He also pitched pretty well in spring training, and many people thought he could win the fifth spot in the rotation.

He also did not pitch that badly in his two spot starts this year, going 0-1, 3.86 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. The Yankees would sign on the dotted line right now for those ERA and WHIP numbers over six starts.

As he is a journeyman, we are well aware that is not likely the case for Mitre, but we will be happy if it is.

But that is the Yankees M.O.

It is what they do to replace an injured pitcher in their rotation. They bring in a veteran scrub from their bullpen or from AAA to go in and crap out.

Since Joe Girardi has been manager, this is what the Yankees have done. They have run out Chad Gaudin, Dan Giese, Sidney Ponson, and Darrell Rasner for many, many starts. Ponson and Rasner actually were full-fledged members of that 2008 rotation, making 20 and 15 starts, respectively.

It seems like Girardi (and GM Brian Cashman) have been mind-altered from the Ian Kennedy-Phil Hughes 2008 experiment.

So it probably will not be any young pitcher from their system. The Yankees like to bring these young guys along slowly at the beginning of the season. There will be two spots open next year in their rotation, and after they sign a free agent pitcher, the open spot will be filled from within.

So no Ivan Nova yet and no Zach McAllister , two system developed pitchers currently at Triple A Scranton. If a young guy is called upon, it would likely be Nova.

He had a brief call up earlier this season, performed well, and he is on the Yankees 40 man roster, so no additional move needs to be made. McAllister has had a rocky road in his first season in Triple A, and is not yet on the 40 man roster, but does need to be added this winter.

It is also not the Yankees style to trade prospects for starting pitcher help in mid-season. As with Johan Santana and CC Sabathia a few years ago, the Yankees passed on Santana, ending up signing Sabathia as a free agent the following winter.

The Cliff Lee almost deal was a special case because Lee is such a great pitcher and those guys rarely are available. Also, attempting to keep him from an American League rival such as Texas or Minnesota would shift the balance of power seriously towards the Yankees in any potential playoff scenario. 

They also would have had an opportunity to show Lee how great being a Yankee is, and in seeing this, Lee could possibly take less money to stay.

So, bringing up young starters and trading for solid veterans who are going to be free agents are really never on the Yankee docket.

So Mitre is the guy right now.

I am interested in seeing how effective Mitre can be and would give him a few starts. But the Yankees have to be worried on how many innings Mitre can give them, so they do not burn out the bullpen every one of his starts.

Mitre, who is throwing tonight for Triple A Scranton, has not gone more than three innings in any of his rehab starts.

Beside Pettitte, the Yankees also have another worry in Phil Hughes’ inning limitations. Projected to be about 180, Hughes is now at 101 innings pitched. That would give him 12 more starts with about six innings per start or 10 starts of about seven innings per.

That still leaves four to five more starts on the table from that spot.

A third concern is the status of A.J. Burnett. Not the tantrum with cuts on his hand AJ, but the bad-pitching A.J. Burnett. Before he was removed from Saturday’s game, Burnett had allowed four hits and four runs in two innings including another home run.

Burnett’s lack of quality starts cannot be blamed on Dave Eiland anymore. Burnett can not be trusted to pitch big games.

Pettitte is out, Hughes has limitations, Burnett is not good and the bullpen, besides Mariano Rivera, never makes anyone feel confident.

They will not go with the young guy, will not trade for a potential free agent pitcher and instead will go with the journeyman.  

I love to go with young guys and say forget about the journeymen guys and minor league talent like Nova and McAllister right now.

Bring up David Phelps and have him start Saturday.

While most people have not thought of Phelps as a “top of the rotation” starter-type, all he does is get guys out via weakly hit balls and, now, with strikeouts. He is absolutely dominating this season with an overall ERA of 2.04 in 17 starts in Double-A and Triple-A.  Interestingly, his ERA is the same 2.04 at both levels.  Extremely consistent.

Like Pettitte, Phelps also threw yesterday, striking out 10 in six innings, while allowing a single run.

He is 7-1 overall this year with a 1.000 WHIP and .216 batting average against. Phelps issues very few walks, too.

He is an ultimate strike throwing machine with four quality pitches. He has a newly developed cutter, and nice change and good spike curve ball.

I asked him at Trenton about his recent surge in strikeouts and he said he scrapped his regular curve for more of a spiked one which has more downward break on the pitch. When prompted if it was difficult to control, Phelps says he harnessed the command of the pitch by throwing it a lot in early spring games.

There are two situations working against Phelps.

First, he is not yet on the 40 man roster, and does not need to be until NEXT off season. Second, he has only made three starts at Triple A Scranton and is not the highest arm on the pecking order.

But in three starts (17.2 IP) with 19 strikeouts and ZERO walks issued so far, he is the best young pitcher right now at Triple A. He also has tremendous poise on the mound, and I have never seen him flustered in any of his starts.

40 man roster space is vastly overrated as most fringe guys never make it with the big league team. Several spots can be made available rather easily.

A smart team would go with their best pitchers, not based upon other factors. If the Yankees go with the youth movement, Phelps should be the guy.

But before they do that we will have to endure a few Mitre performances.

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It has been said that the definition of stupid is doing the same wrong thing over and over again, and expecting a different outcome.

As cruel as it might sound, I believe the industry of major league baseball is stuck in a method of managing of pulling your starters before they are cruising. Continuing to use the same failed pitching mistakes continues to only lead a team into more and more losses, and wasted efforts of the starting pitcher. 

I believe New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel is a stupid person, and one of the worst culprits of this pitching change phenomenon.

He obviously does not read my Bleacher Report articles .

What else would there be to explain why he continues to pull the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, out games in which he is pitching great? Can you honestly believe that was the correct move today against the San Francisco Giants?

Especially when your team needs a victory in the worst way to avoid being swept in the first four games on this important road trip?

How about the Sunday game before the All-Star break against the Atlanta Braves ? Does Manuel himself honestly believe pulling Santana AFTER SEVEN SHUTOUT INNINGS of a game against the leader of the NL East was the correct move?

Well, Santana did already throw 107 pitches in that game. OMG! Call the papers!

And the Mets were only ahead 2-0 in that Braves game. Why would you remove your best pitcher in that game to put the ball in the hands of Bobby Parnell?

Granted, the Mets did win both games, but Manuel has to realize (especially after Frankie Rodriguez blew another save today) that Santana, no matter how many pitches he has thrown, is the best option for him at the end of the game.

Check out the photo accompanying this article. It is the on-field hand slapping between Manuel and Santana after Johan was allowed to finish his own game.

It might never happen again.  

Manuel already managed the Mets into many losses this season by pulling Santana early, and even pulling R.A. Dickey in this game when the Mets had Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals beaten.

Parnell and K-Rod gave up four runs in two innings in the eighth and ninth, but I doubt that Dickey would have allowed any more runs to the that Nats lineup. In watching the recorded game later on, they looked flustered trying to hit Dickey’s hard knuckle ball.

But Dickey threw 115 pitches already. What are we doing Jerry, trying to save the 35-year-old journeyman’s arm?

I remember driving home that day from umpiring a double header and listening to the game on the radio. I smiled when I heard that Dickey was being removed from the game. That gave the Nationals a chance.

But let’s get back to the Mets’ most effective, and highest paid, starting pitcher.

I don’t care how many pitches he has thrown into the later innings. If the game is tight and Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, or Albert Pujols was coming up, I WANT MY BEST PITCHER TO FACE THEM in that situation.

I already got on Manuel’s crosstown manager, Joe Girardi, last week regarding his pitch count limit shenanigans.

And it is not just Manuel and Girardi, but MLB in general. This entire notion that a middling relief pitcher, who isn’t good enough to be a starting pitcher and is not good enough to close games, is better than one of your starting pitchers when a game is tight is ridiculous. You can see this trend as middle relievers continue to get more and more win/loss decisions.

In 2008, Manuel pulled Santana early in four games which the Mets either held the lead or was tied but eventually lost , including two heartbreakers to the Philadelphia Phillies on July 4 and July 22 .

I heard on today’s radio broadcast that Santana had eight leads that season in which the Mets bullpen could not hold the lead.

How about Santana holding the lead?

Not until I wrote a piece two years ago did much talk center on letting Santana go longer in games because he is the team’s best pitcher, not Pedro Feliciano, not Fernando Nieve, not Elmer Dessens, not even the newly-anointed eighth inning guy Bobby Parnell or K-Rod are better than Johan Santana in these spots.
 
If you are talking pitch counts, and that Santana needs to be preserved for an August/September stretch run, there won’t be a late stretch run if Manuel continues to micro-manage the Johan Santana-pitched Mets games.

During those two Phillies games in July 2008, Santana had thrown 95 and 105 pitches, respectively, before he was pulled with a lead. As a reminder, the Mets lost the National League East by three games last season to those same Phillies, but were out of the National League Wild Card by a single game.

Leaving Santana in those four games when he was pulled would have likely returned three victories for the Mets.

If I am Manuel, I don’t care if Santana is at 95, 105, 115, or 135 pitches on a specific night. If Santana is still dealing and getting guys out, he is the man to be in the game. Not the aforementioned middle relievers.   

And do not pinch hit for him late either when there is no one on base or two outs in an inning. Having Santana on the mound is more important than gambling on getting a late insurance run.

Despite some successes this season, the Mets rotation is far from elite. The Mets need to win every game that Santana pitches, and that means letting your ace pitch very deep into games, if not a complete game every time out.

Then you can use the bullpen to try and bail out Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, and new rotation member R.A. Dickey—because you know Manuel, for a variety of reasons, is not going to be allowed those guys to go the distance.

Manuel needs to stop becoming more stupid—because if you have ever heard the comedian Ron White , “You can fix almost anything, but you can’t fix stupid .”

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On a night when hearts were heavy and tears were plentiful, the New York Yankees Nick Swisher capped a momentous evening with a single in the bottom of the 9th inning. The single, Swisher’s third hit of the night, scored Curtis Granderson with the winning run in a 5-4 victory at Yankee Stadium–the House the Boss Built.

With tremendous tributes to both former principal owner George Steinbrenner and public address announcer Bob Sheppard (who also was a former cast member of the Seinfeld series *), the Yankees won in walk off fashion with Swisher’s third hit, and third RBI, of the night.

The drama and circumstances were eerily similar to the August 6, 1979 tribute game ** to the late Thurman Munson (my favorite player) when Munson’s great friend, Bobby Murcer, hit a walk-off, two-run single to win that Monday night baseball game.

The Captain’s funeral was earlier that day in Canton, OH, and Murcer gave one of the eulogies, then hit a three-run homer in the 7th inning that night before the two-run opposite field single in the 9th.

Murcer drove in all five runs that night in the Yankees 5-4 win, the same score they won by on tribute night to the boss and the voice.

It was fitting that Swisher, who went to Ohio State (where Steinbrenner once coached football and as a native Ohioan was an avid Buckeye supporter), had the same type of game in support of “Big Stein” that Murcer did for Munson, another native.

Swisher ended the night 3 for 5, with three RBI, including a mammoth HR in the 8th inning to tie the game at 4-4.

It was a big night for all Yankees and Yankee fans, fitting that “The Boss” was presented with a classic Yankee style victory.

George M. Steinbrenner would have demanded that type of finish, and not expected it any other way.

*Sheppard’s voice can be heard in three different Seinfeld episodes. One was at Giants Stadium, with Sheppard asking Elaine’s boyfriend, “Will Joel Rifkin please report to the stadium office.” The next two are scenes set at Yankee Stadium where Elaine will not remove her Baltimore Orioles hat and another episode when the Miss America contestants are announced. “Poise, poise, poise!”

**Another great thing about this game is that Ron Guidry, who got the win, pitched a complete game despite allowing nine hits and four earned runs. He also struck out nine and his pitch count must have been somewhere around 125 or more.

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I spent the better part of last week traveling across the state of Florida to see the Tampa Yankees of the Florida State League (FSL).

This step, from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa, is great for these kids, as they get special treatment with shorter bus rides (their longest trip is to Jupiter and Port St. Lucie, a mere four hour ride) than when playing in the Sally League.*

*I talked with Graham Stoneburner and Shaeffer Hall, two mid-season promotions from Charleston, and they both agreed the shorter bus rides were a relief. Stoneburner mentioned the 14-hour ride from Charleston to Lakewood, NJ for a four-game set was too long.

Charleston has to make that trip again in August.

And they get to play ball in George M. Steinbrenner Stadium, the same building which the major leaguers ply their trade every spring training. One issue I saw with the FSL is that the stands are mostly empty.

The Sally League gets many more paying customers.

This Tampa team has a few good young hitters, and a couple other decent position players.

The meat and potatoes of this team, however, is the pitching staff. At the time of my witnessing these games, there had been two former Tampa starting pitchers promoted to Double-A Trenton (Hector Noesi and Andrew Brackman ), plus another who likely would be moving up soon in Adam Warren .

And on the day I returned from Tampa, Warren was indeed promoted to Trenton .

Even after the promotions, The Tampa rotation continues to be good, with the additions of those two Charleston call ups, right-handed flamethrower Graham Stoneburner and left-handed control artist Shaeffer Hall .

These roster moves gave the Tampa Yankees a rotation of Warren, Stoneburner, Hall, Dellin Betances , and Manuel Banuelos . Both Betances and Banuelos are coming off injuries, with Dellin having elbow surgery last season and Man-Ban having an appendectomy this past spring.

I did not see Betances in either of his starts, so I will not be commenting on anything specific. 

All five starters are good enough to eventually pitch in Trenton, a few of them now. Here are my capsules on the first two pitchers, Adam Warren and Manuel Banuelos, with their abilities.

A comparison major leaguer who is similar in style, but this does not mean the specific Tampa pitcher will have that type of career.

Adam Warren: RHP 6’1″, 200 lbs.

Since he has already been promoted, lets start with him. Two words: Nothing special. But that is not a negative.

He does not have mind-blowing velocity, not a single dominant pitch where you say, “wow, this kid has great stuff.”

But he is going to be really good.

I saw him twice, and he was exactly the same both times. Warren keeps everything down in the zone, with a four-seam fastball, a tremendous sinking fastball, smart change up and a slider/cutter.

He did throw a curve ball, but not very much.

Everything was thrown for strikes, and with Warren moving the ball in and out very well, he was effective in getting swings and misses on all of his pitches.

He faced the same team, the Brevard County Manatees, both times, and was more effective the second time around. The first game saw him go seven innings, allowing five hits, but two walks and a hit batter. He got out of two jams, allowing a single unearned run.

In game two, however, Warren was flat out dominant. He only threw five innings, allowing four hits and no walks while striking out nine Manatees.

It was interesting, but Warren was rarely ahead of any hitters in the second game, regularly going to three ball counts early in the game. But he always came back to get the strikeout or obtain a weakly batted ball.

Warren will keep a hitter’s BABIP way down with the way he comes inside with his hard sinking fastball.

That pitch was usually 91-93 MPH, but he did ratchet it up to 94 a few times in the fourth and fifth innings, and hit 95 in the fourth inning. His change up was around 81, and his slider came in anywhere from 82-85.

As I said, Warren does not have one great pitch, but knows how to pitch. He sends hitters back to the bench feeling comfortable with their zero per night.

They weren’t dominated with great stuff, just great pitching.

After the fifth inning one of the pitchers said, “he is probably done for tonight.” There was a feeling around the players that Warren was probably going to be promoted soon. There were no more statements to be made about pitching in the FSL.

When I asked about a possible promotion, Warren was a typical Yankee farmhand. He took the traditional Yankee high road and said he had “no control over those matters,” and he will pitch “wherever they want me to.”

On the mound, Warren reminds me of Greg Maddux, with his ability to throw all his pitches for strikes, issuing very few walks and with great ball movement.

Still, with quite a few starting pitcher prospects above Warren (McAllister, Nova, Noesi, DJ Mitchell, David Phelps) and a few equal (Brackman, plus a few others in Tampa), Warren is the kind of a guy who can be a major trade chip one day. 

He was, in fact, later offered to Seattle for Cliff Lee as a replacement for David Adams.

Manuel Banuelos: LHP 5’10”, 155 lbs.

I saw Banuelos throw twice, again both against Brevard County, and he was pretty darn good both times.

Banuelos, a 19-year-old left-handed pitcher culled from the Mexican League, is listed as 5’10” but is no bigger than me, and I am only 5’9″.

But what Man-Ban lacks in height, he makes up for in repertoire, pitch command, and poise. And not necessarily ranked in that order.

Watching him warm up for the first game, I saw a very smooth and easy delivery. He does not swing the pitching arm back with a high lead elbow, putting less stress on his elbow and shoulder. His front foot plants in the same spot every time, a good sign towards a pitcher repeating his delivery pitch after pitch.

And Banuelos does repeat his easy delivery. He locates all three of his pitches where he wants almost all the time. If he misses with a pitch, most of the time he misses down, especially with his dynamite 12-6 curve ball.

And that curve ball is just one of three out pitches Banuelos displayed that Tuesday night . He threw that pitch inside and outside, getting called strikes on some, weakly hit ground balls on a few, and swinging strikes on many.

Banuelos started that game by allowing three straight hard-hit singles, and his first earned run in two FSL starts. All three hits were on pitches over the plate, and two of the batters fought off some tough pitches prior to getting their knocks.

But Manny settled down, striking out the next three hitters (two looking) on a called fastball away, swinging change-up away, and called inside curve to a right-handed hitter. All three hitters were set up beautifully, giving credit to veteran backstop/1B Myron Leslie.

But Banuelos threw the pitches to the right spots when he needed to, and he dominated the Brevard County lineup after those first three hitters.

While the curve ball is really good (75-76 MPH all night), and the fastball is solid (92-93 MPH all night, touching 94 twice) with a slight tailing action to right-handed hitters, it is Banuelos’ change up which is going to get him through the system in a hurry. 

The change was thrown consistently in the 80-82 MPH range with precise location. He generated lots of swing and misses all night on this pitch, painting the outside corner with it at will.

After one swing and a miss on a pinpoint change-up, I said to myself, “that was really an unfair pitch.”

One Tampa Yankees hurler who was seated behind the back stop charting pitches said that Banuelos is “unreal.” This player also said, “I have not seen anything like him so far in pro-ball.”

His second start was similar to his first, but Manny went five full innings and was more economical with his pitches. The only blemish was a fifth inning, two-run home run to right centerfield by a right-handed hitter. It was on a change-up which crossed too high over the plate. It registered 84 MPH, as opposed to the usual 80-81, which might be the reason it stayed high.

The ball was hit well, and was one of only two pitches left up in the zone by Banuelos during both outings.

One issue I have with Banuelos was his pick off move to first base. It was predictable and easy to recognize. There were three successful stolen bases (on three attempts) off him the first game.

He did change things around, and while there were three steal attempts (one successful) in the second game, one runner was thrown out by Jose Gil, and the second guy was picked off first. Banuelos did not throw over two pitches in a row in the first game, but did so on the pickoff.  

It was good to see him adjust his pickoff move, but it still has to improve.

Banuelos was not afraid to throw his off-speed pitches in favorable hitters counts, and as the games moved along it was very unpredictable what he would throw. He threw many back-to-back change ups, which shows Banuelos is confident in his pitches. He was not afraid to possibly put on man on via a walk, because he has the pitches to generate strikeouts or a quick double play ground ball.

He showed tremendous confidence in throwing strikes when behind in the count, seemingly not caring as he continued to throw his off speed stuff at anytime. And when a right-handed hitter began to lean out over the plate, he busted them inside with a curve or 93 MPH fastball.

As I said earlier, Banuelos will make his bones with that great change-up, a pitch which is very similar to Johan Santana’s. Santana can get away with his change-up higher in the zone while Banuelos did not.

In my next report, the capsules will be on Shaeffer Hall and Graham Stoneburner, plus some thoughts on several of the Tampa Yankee position players.

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Well replacement might be a tough word, because no one is going to ever replace the supreme production supplied by Mariano Rivera.

Replacing someone was as great as Rivera in their own line of work is the ultimate no-win situation. It rarely works out the same way, and no one usually remembers the replacements.

Quick: Who replaced Lou Gehrig at first base? Who replaced John Wooden at UCLA?

Mariano is the greatest closer of all time. Not the greatest relief pitcher (that would be Rollie Fingers because of his multiple inning durability), but Mo is the one pitcher you want on the mound for three ninth inning outs holding a one run lead.

Finding a new closer is going to be a difficult challenge as no one knows how long Rivera will continue to want to pitch.

At age 40, Rivera has shown no signs of vulnerability. He still sports one of the best closer ERAs with 1.05 and 20 saves, and a WHIP of 0.641. He also retired an incredible 24 straight batters in the month of June.

Still highly effective, how long will Rivera want to pitch? Similar to Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will allow Rivera to make up his own mind when he wants to leave the game.

Rivera has mentioned that signing a series of one-year deals (similar to what Pettitte has done) would be acceptable to him.

I believe Rivera will pitch at least two more seasons after 2010. The “Core Four” will begin to gradually leave the team after this season (Pettitte retiring) and after 2011 (Jorge Posada not being re-signed).

If I were Mo, I would not want to retire the same season as another long time Yankee does.

I believe Rivera will then leave after the 2012 season, which makes getting my preferred replacement very difficult, as that guy is available sooner than the 2013 season.

Here are the five top candidates for the eventual new Yankees closer spot, and Joba Chamberlain is NOT on the list.

Begin Slideshow

UPDATE (July 9, 2010, 4:10 PM) : It appears via several sources that the Lee to the Yankees deal is OFF. The reason has been given that the Mariners did not feel comfortable with the ankle injury of second base prospect David Adams.

While I view that excuse as a made up one, it seems to me that the Mariners were using the Yankees as leverage to maybe get a better deal from another team.

Or maybe they received a last minute offer which they deem as much better.

The Texas Rangers have appeared to become the front funner, likely finally including first base slugger Justin Smoak in the deal. The Mariners obviously liked Smoak over Montero.

What this turn of events does not do is lessen the point of the article, which bring sinto focus the vast talent the Yankees have at their disposal via the draft and international free agent signings.

ORIGINAL PIECE:

While I am shocked that Cliff Lee will be traded to the Yankees, I am not shocked the Yankees were able to trade for him.

Most people will scream that the trade smells of the Yankees ability to pay for the remaining millions on Lee’s current contract, and that the rich will get richer.

But many other teams were willing (and able) to pick up the remaining $4 million. Teams like Minnesota, Texas, and to a lesser extent, the Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays (all financially tight teams) have thrown their hat in the Cliff Lee ring.

But what the Yankees do have over those teams is a deep farm system with talent at highly desirable positions. This was about the Yankees having the resources to obtain Lee via trade by having developed one of the top farm systems in all of baseball.

And Branch Rickey is quietly smiling.

When Brian Cashman obtained complete control of baseball operations in 2005, the one aspect he wanted to improve was the franchise’s farm system. The Yankees began the trend of drafting hard to sign guys, then offering big money to get them away from college. They also became very aggressive in the international free agent market.

Other teams quickly followed suit on these tactics.

Their amateur drafting and international free agent signings would focus on “up the middle” talent, primarily catchers and pitchers, and to a lesser extent, center fielders and second basemen.

Positions which are important to building a quality, homegrown team, but players to be developed at positions which other teams also need. And which other teams trying to rebuild would trade established veterans for.

This trading of young talent for veterans is no different than what the Yankees of the 1980’s and early 1990’s did. But now the Yankees have built so much depth at these key positions, they are dealing from strength and not emptying their entire farm system to snag one or two players.

This is not like the Philadelphia Phillies trading several of their top players for Roy Halladay, then turning around and having to trade Lee to the Mariners to replace prospects from a now weaker system.

So trading Triple-A catcher/DH Jesus Montero , Double-A second baseman David Adams, and likely Triple-A 22-year-old starting pitcher Zach McAllister for one of the top five pitchers in baseball does not hurt the organization in the long run.

The Yankees still have highly regarded catchers Austin Romine in Double-A, J.R. Murphy in Low-A Charleston (although I still think they turn him into a corner outfielder), and 17-year-old stud Gary Sanchez , who is a man among boys in the rookie Gulf Coast League.

Sanchez hit his fourth home run today and has 20 RBI in 15 GCL games. Also, his throwing arm rivals many already in the majors leagues.

At High-A Tampa, the Yankees have left-handed hitting, smooth-swinging second baseman Corban Joseph , who will likely get a call up to Double-A Trenton before too long. They also have some 27-year-old guy named Robinson Cano in the majors.

And the Yankees have ridiculously strong pitching depth in the minors with Ivan Nova and David Phelps at Triple-A and Hector Hoesi , D.J. Mitchell (who has only been pitching for four years), and Andrew Brackman at Double-A.

And, despite what Jim Callis thinks , a boatload of highly-regarded pitching prospects are at High-A Tampa , with Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, Graham Stoneburner, Adam Warren, and Shaeffer Hall.

With the rise of Phelps this season from dominating Double-A to his latest start at Triple-A, McAllister, who I have always liked , became expendable in order to obtain Lee.

And with those three highly-regarded players in Montero, Adams, and McAllister on their way to the Mariners, the Yankees still have tremendous depth in their system at catcher, second base and on the mound.

It’s not like the other New York team, which has just started to produce homegrown talent, but did not have enough chips to get the prize this season.

The Yankees have depth at the key positions, both to build from within and trade away to obtain their needs. This has been the plan all along for Cashman and the Yankees’ hierarchy since 2005.

And it appears to have paid off handsomely.

So please do not cry and whine about how the Yankees are buying their way to another World Series title.

Save that for December when Lee signs a long-term deal with them.

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When Stephen Strasburg first toed a major league pitcher’s rubber on June 8, 2010, the media attention was amazing.

Hordes of reporters were dispatched to Washington, DC, the Nationals sold out their home game with the Pittsburgh Pirates (the lowly Pirates!), and throngs of fans lined up to buy Strasburg jerseys and T-shirts.

Strasburg sensationalism was born!

He did not disappoint. Strasburg dominated the weak Pirates lineup to a tune of seven innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs, and striking out an amazing 14 batters, the last seven in a row.

After blowing away Adam LaRoche to end the seventh, Strasburg left the mound (everyone knew he was done for the day) to a rousing standing ovation, a good lead, and eventually his first victory.

It was a good moment for Major League Baseball.

But as one of my old baseball coaches was fond of saying, “If you think that was good, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

Strasburg’s debut, and his subsequent five additional starts, do not even compare to the wild ride in 1981 ushered into baseball by Fernandomania, the phenomenon which was Fernando Valenzuela.

While Strasburg allowed two earned runs in his first major league start, Fernando did not allow his second earned run until his SIXTH start of his rookie season.

Check out his game log from 1981 here.

After the first eight starts of his rookie season as a Los Angeles Dodger, Valenzuela was 8-0 with a 0.50 ERA.

Relying on a screwball that he only began throwing a year earlier, Valenzuela threw seven complete games and five shutouts—including 36 consecutive scoreless innings—in those first eight starts.

In two other games he allowed only one run, and the only time he did not throw a “complete game” was a 10-inning affair in Montreal where he went nine innings.

You had to be there to appreciate the control that Fernando Valenzuela had over the hitters in the National League AND the entire baseball world.

He was similar to Babe Ruth in stature, both in his popularity and in his physique. Like the Babe, Valenzuela was also a pretty good hitter and a really good left-handed pitcher.

His tremendous 1981 season, however, was not his beginning.

After being signed out of the Mexican League, Valenzuela was promoted in late 1980 during the Dodgers’ pennant run, where he posted a 2-0 record, one save, and a 0.00 ERA in 10 relief appearances (17.2 innings). 

Add in the two wins and 17.2 scoreless innings from late in 1980, and after his first 18 major league appearances, Valenzuela had a 10-0 record with a 0.37 ERA.

His success spurred a phenomenon called Fernandomania, and while the Los Angeles Latino community were already big baseball fans, after “El Toro” (Valenzuela’s nickname) came alive, the Latin fans were now out rooting in full force.

People of all types clamored for his rookie baseball cards (I know, as I just began as a card dealer back then), and Fernando had to give press conferences before every road series.

When he visited the New York market for a June road series, Valenzuela was met by almost a hundred photographers, and that did not include all the TV cameras and print reporters.

I remember my junior year in high school, hanging out with friends at someone’s house on May 8, watching that Friday night game in New York that Fernando pitched against the Mets.

A bad Met team (managed by Joe Torre) drew almost 40,000 fans that night to see Valenzuela. He did not disappoint, posting his eighth straight win and fifth shutout. 

While Strasburg has been hyped due to the over-reaching 24-hour media outlets, Fernandomania was due mainly because of the person. Valenzuela was a quiet, unassuming 20-year-old Latino with a baby face and big smile.

At that time ESPN was still doing mostly log-rolling championships and world’s strongest man competitions.

They did not have the presence they do now.

Even 20 years later, Fernandomania still is discussed.

Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda said, “It happened so fast, it was like a forest fire…he attracted crowds on the road and at home like you’ve never seen. Fernandomania was something I will never forget.”

Valenzuela was an instant celebrity, and his presence began the marketing of Latin sports figures to a Latin market hungry for Latin heroes. His presence is the sole reason the Dodgers led the National League in attendance both in 1982 and 1983.

Fernando’s patented delivery (see photo), including him “looking to the sky” before every pitch, was in itself a separate phenomenon.

Fernando only went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA, but he missed two months’ worth of starts due to the 1981 players strike.

Stephen Strasburg is a really good pitcher with a bright future. He throws the ball up to 103 MPH, and that fastball is only his third best pitch after his 90 MPH change-up and knee-buckling curve ball.

But all the hype and following he has now does not captivate an entire nation (and two distinct cultures) like Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981.

Valenzuela was only a 173-153, 3.54 ERA pitcher for his career, and while he was dropped from Hall of Fame voting in 2004, his early career, and the madness which ensued, were definitely Hall of Fame worthy.

There will never be another player who had the stature and charisma so early and so young as Fernando Valenzuela.

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Phil Hughes, aka Phranchise, will start Tuesday night’s game against the Seattle Mariners and Cliff Lee. Hughes, though, had his last start skipped out on the West Coast trip through Arizona and Los Angeles.

The reason? After throwing mostly in relief last year, he is on an innings limit this season, with the Yankees likely not to let Hughes go above 180 innings. After throwing 105 innings last season, Hughes would have that number bumped up by 75 innings over 2009.

Depending on the source, this number of 180 innings does or does not include playoffs.

Why so much of an increase? The Verducci Effect says that any young pitcher under the age of 25 who throws more than 30 innings over the prior season is ripe for injury or a lower level of production.

TVE started out as 40 innings over the prior season, but I guess there were not enough injuries so Verducci reduced the number to 30 innings. The original theory only contained injuries, but King Tom also added an increase in ERA to prove his points of pitcher abuse.

Well, Hughes did throw 111 innings in 2007, 100 in 2008 (including the 30 he threw in the Arizona Fall League), and 105 last year. He also threw in the 2007 and 2009 postseasons.

Maybe the Yankees feel that Hughes has built up enough innings over the last three years (316) that he can withstand the “rigors” of 180 innings.

I feel that Hughes also can withstand those innings, and much more. I would not have sat him at all, especially with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays in hot pursuit of first place. Your teams’ best pitcher is being reduced in his work detail.

But I understand why the Yankees did it. They do not want to be blamed for anything if Hughes ever hurts his arm*. Don’t want to hear if from the fans, the media, the agents, or even fantasy baseball owners. They don’t want to lose their future investment of a great arm.

* Newsflash! Almost all pitchers hurt their arms during their careers, many needing surgery. It is the nature of the beast in a most unnatural act. Even Roger Clemens, one of the most durable pitchers of all time, had shoulder surgery in 1985 at age 22. He only won 350+ plus games afterwards, and is 16th all time in total innings pitched.

Those who do not hurt their arms usually have tremendous mechanics like Greg Maddux, who threw 167 pitches in a game at age 22 and still made his next 700+ starts. Maddux also has starts that season of 131 pitches (twice), 134 pitches, and 143 pitches in his first start, April 6.

Maddux also had accumulated 86 professional innings in 1986, jumped to 186 innings the following season (increase of 100), then threw 196 in 1986. After throwing 183 combined minor and Major League innings in 1987, Maddux threw 249 Major League innings in 1988, a jump of 66 innings over the prior season.

The reason? Great mechanics, which lessened the pressure on the shoulder and elbow. Maybe Mark Prior should be working with Maddux and not Tom House.

And since Hughes has now become what was expected of him, a really good young pitcher who is 10-1 with a 3.14 ERA entering Tuesday, the Yankees are taking it easy.

It is a mistake, but I applaud this move by the Yankees to limit Hughes’ innings.

All the horror stories of Mark Fidrych throwing 250 innings in 1976 at age 21 and Doc Gooden throwing 276 innings in 1985 at age 20 are scaring off these teams on using their young pitchers to win games. Both Don Gullett and Gary Nolan of the Big Red Machine days of the early 1970s had logged totals of 200+ innings in their early 20s, including Gullett at age 20.

All four of these young pitchers were never the same after many years of these high innings pitched seasons.

Well, can someone please let me know how Doc Gooden would ever replicate one of the greatest pitched seasons of all time when he went 24-4. 1.53 ERA, 268 strikeouts, and 0.965 WHIP in 1985? It woudl be impossible.

What many people do not understand that the idea is to win games, not protect your “investments.”

There, I said it.

That means if a young pitcher, like Hughes or Gooden or Gullett, or even Stephen Strasburg, are throwing well in a tight pennant race, they have to pitch. I don’t care how old they are or how many innings they have thrown.

But I still like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes.

Injuries happen whether a pitcher is overused early in his career or not. While Fidrych, Gooden, Gullett, and Nolan are on one side, there are guys like Dennis Martinez**, Bert Blyleven, and Don Sutton who threw a lot of innings before age 25 and had long, productive careers.

Blyleven AVERAGED 289 innings in his age 22 through 25 seasons, including a high of 325 at age 22.

**And can some team please call Martinez and get him to pitch a third of an inning so he can reach 4,000 for his career. Even at 55 years of age, I bet El Presidente can get one guy out. If Chad Gaudin can get someone out, then anybody can. How about a promo day in September for the Nationals, the franchise Martinez threw a perfecto with? That four game series vesus Houston looks like a great time.

And I also contend that Nolan and Gooden had nice careers, too. Nolan ended up having 110 wins and started 30+ games five times, while Gooden started 410 games over a 16 year career, winning 194.

Lots of guys today are having Tommy John surgery (TJS) and have been limited in pitch counts and their innings. Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has TJS a few years ago, and was closely monitored throughout his pro career.

The Yankees have a bunch of minor leaguers who have had TJS and they monitor everything pitcher wise, including the use of the minor league “phantom DL” to give guys innings breaks. Heck, a few years ago the Toronto Blue Jays had a slew of young pitchers who had surgery and they were monitored throughout their careers.

All the precautions in attempts to extend a young pitchers career has eliminated the dominant season (glad Ubaldo is here now), or that run of great seasons. Building up guys over time is fine, but now even veteran pitchers are limited to seven inning starts and a little more than 200 innings a year.

There are too many decisions going to middle relievers, guys with no business being in the critical parts of games. Is asking a pitcher to throw 15 pitches an inning over nine innings too much?

It is ridiculous to ask someone to be like Iron Man Joe McGinnity again, who used to throw both ends of a double header. But to throw 135 pitches over nine innings (15 per inning) does not seem problematic, especially when a pitcher conditions himself to do so.

Most great pitchers like Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, and the like only became what they were because they were allowed to become what they are.

Steve Carlton only became Steve Carlton because he was allowed to be Steve Carlton.

And that is to take the ball all the time, throwing enough to win (or lose) the game that day, going out and doing it again every four (now five) days. Those types of pitchers used to “get better as the game went along.”

That phrase was even used this season about Strasburg. But Strasburg is not yet being allowed to become Strasburg. And Hughes is not yet being allowed to become Phil Hughes.

But I like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes, and what the Nationals are doing with Strasburg.

And what the Reds are doing with Mike Leake, what the San Diego Padres are doing with their young starters, and what the Baltimore Orioles are doing with young starters Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta.

The Yankees, as well as many other teams, most notably Kansas City when Zack Greinke starts games, have lost games in which they held middle-to-late inning leads. What the manager did was remove the starting pitcher after six or seven innings to hand the lead over to the bullpen.

Many times this ends in team losses, and in close pennant races in September those games blown early count just the same.

Hall of Fame pitcher Robin Roberts died just about two months ago, and he won 286 games, including 20+ wins in six straight seasons from age 23 through age 28. He also won 19 a year later at age 29. He dominated those six/seven seasons, and despite having double-digit wins in eight other seasons.

After he averaged 319 innings per season, Roberts was really never the same after age 28.

But I would rather have those dominating six years, then have a real good pitcher for 15 seasons who doesn’t dominate, but gets his obligatory 12+ wins every year. Are these teams trying to get 30 starts out of these guys for 15 years?

If so, that would be a nice, long career of 450 starts.

Know how many pitchers have started 450+ games in MLB? Only 77.

In the history of Major League Baseball, only 77 pitchers have started 450+ games, the equivalent of a 15 year career at 30 starts per season.

And most of these guys began their careers before 1985, the era when pitch counts started to become common.

So let’s get these pitchers to start dominating again over shorter time periods.

Give me Phil Hughes or Stephen Strasburg or a Mike Leake dominating for seven seasons before mediocrity hits. The teams will be better because of it, and if a team cannot develop another good starting pitcher or two (or three) in seven years then player development is the problem.

But I like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes, what the Nationals are doing with Strasburg, and what the Reds are doing with Leake.

Because when one of these guys (or any other “limited innings” pitcher) gets an arm injury and needs surgery, then baseball can get forget about these stupid pitch counts and innings limits, and back to the days of the dominating, workhorse starting pitcher.

I believe Phil Hughes can be that guy. Just let Phil be Phil.

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Ubaldo Jimenez has a great start to the 2010 campaign, where he has a 14-1 record to go along with a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. It measures up against many of the great pitching starts to any individual season.

But how does it measure up against the start of one of the greatest pitching seasons of the modern era: The 22-9, 1.12 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, 258 ERA-plus of Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign?

By the end of June, Gibson was a rather pedestrian 9-5, but his ERA was 1.14, and he already had lost games by scores of 1-0 and 2-0. The league ERA at the end of June was 2.93, so Gibson ERA-plus was around 257 after three months of work.

These figures are right in line with Gibson’s seasonal marks of 1.12 ERA and 258 ERA-plus. It speaks volumes on how Gibson was extremely consistent throughout that amazing season.

During that entire season, however, the Major Leagues had terrible hitters across the board. For example, only one American League batter, Carl Yastrzemski, hit over .300 (barely at .301), and very few batters in either league hit for power. Willie McCovey of the San Francisco Giants led the National League with 36 home runs and was the only NL player with over 100 RBI, racking up 105.

In 1968, the NL had a slash line of .243 BA/.300 OBP/.341 SLG/.641 OPS. Only one team, the Cincinnati Reds, had a team OPS over .700. The average runs scored per game that season in the NL was 3.43.

These were terrible offensive statistics.

The biggest factor was the size of the mound. In 1968, the mound was 15 inches high, but reduced to 10 inches beginning in 1969. But wasn’t the mound height 15 inches in the seasons prior to 1968?

Of course, they were 15 inches high since 1903 (sometimes higher), so why weren’t the ERAs well below 2.00, and near Gibson’s 1.12 ERA, in the preceding seasons?

Maybe the pitchers did not pitch as well. Pitchers do have different seasons all the time. Mechanical faults often lead to missing locations of pitches. This usually leads to more runs scored for the opposition.

But those great pitching seasons do come around from time to time,and the 1968 season was the post-war “Year of the Pitcher.” Of the 16 post-war (World War II) seasons which had sub-2.00 ERAs, Gibson, leading the way with the 1968 season, produced seven of them.

In the year of the pitcher, Hoot was by far the best.

By the end of June, Gibby had a .775 WHIP. In June alone, he had a 6-0 record, six complete games, a 0.50 ERA, and five consecutive shutouts. Does it matter that he was facing some anemic hitters. Why didn’t everyone in that era then perform like that?

Whereas Gibson was facing poor hitters, Jimenez is facing more potent lineups, with pretty much any hitter from 1-8 in the National League able to hit the ball over the fence at any time. 

During Jimenez’s great 2010 start, the Major Leagues are hitting at a slash rate of .259/.329/.405/734 OPS, much superior to the National League hitters of the 1968 season. Hitters today are much more advanced than their predecessors, with video clips, better ideas on hitting mechanics, a tighter strike zone, and that lower mound.

But despite the great 14-1 record thus far, Jimenez has a higher ERA than did Gibson through June at 1.83, and a higher WHIP at 1.053. His ERA-plus, which measures his performance against league average, is 246, lower than Gibson’s 257 through June.

Ubaldo’s ERA-plus has also significantly declined each of his last two starts: Two starts which have yielded a win and a no-decision, allowing 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings. His record in June is 4-0 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.439 WHIP.

Those last two numbers are far worse than league average of 4.11 ERA and 1.379 WHIP.

Gibson allowed more than three earned runs only twice in his 34 starts in 1968, one which was over 11 innings.

With his combination of complete games, five straight shutouts (48 straight scoreless innings) and extremely microscopic ERA of 1.14, Bob Gibson had the better three-month start to his 1968 season over Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2010 start.

And the best part is that Gibson kept up that pace through the season, while Jimenez has shown signs of mortality over his last couple starts.

Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign was the best ever for a pitcher in the modern era, and we will likely be saying that for decades to come.

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