Kuzul

Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton have historically bad luck.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees it, the market for free-agent game-changers has never developed at a slower pace.

“Never has there been this many talented free agents unsigned this late into the offseason.”

While those unfortunate and unemployed stars wait to find out where they’ll be playing in 2016, let’s play a game of offseason musical chairs and predict where everyone will end up when the music stops.

Free-agent hitters dominate the conversation, but there’s also room on the list for a prediction about one trade target who smashed 40 home runs during the season that was.

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For the Miami Marlins, the club’s New Year’s resolution is incredibly simple: Just don’t trade Jose Fernandez.

While the Fish don’t have to do anything at all, action will be required for the vast majority of major league squads if they’re going to fulfill their respective resolutions.

The New York Yankees have built a wicked nasty pen, but the rotation still needs an ace. The San Francisco Giants still have some unchecked bullet points on their offseason shopping list, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have an enigma to solve.

There are also teams such as the Atlanta Braves who have to subtract—and subtract big. And one club has to halt a drought that has been going on for way too long.

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Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart just couldn’t help themselves when it came to Zack Greinke.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks chief baseball officer and general manager saw the chance to bring the righty to the desert and punch a Greinke-sized hole in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation, they pounced—even if the price tag was a staggering $206.5 million including deferred money.

The crazy part about the D-backs’ big-money play for Greinke is that it’s not even the move that could end up causing the club the most remorse.

The winter shopping season isn’t over just yet, but already, LaRussa and Stewart aren’t the only big league execs whose free-agent and trade activity could prove more regrettable than attending a wedding in Game of Thrones.

The three teams who crack this list all acquired top-tier free-agent and or trade targets who have the potential to make a decisive impact in 2016. The problem is that all three clubs did so while paying an exorbitant sum of money which could end up hamstringing the respective franchises down the line.

Let’s get this thing started with none other than the brass at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs sure aren’t messing around.

Having assembled a rotation headlined by Greinke, Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin and a batting order anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, this team is all in.

In 2016, the D-backs will be trotting out a squad that has the potential to cause fits for the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

The question is whether Arizona mortgaged the franchise’s future for a potentially brief window of opportunity.

In order to snatch Greinke from the Dodgers’ grasp, the team had to dish out a six-year, $206.5 million pact. That’s a ton of years and dollars to hand out to anybody—even a pitcher as supremely talented as Greinke, who is fresh off a season in which he posted a 1.66 ERA.

Here’s a bit of context to explain just how impressive that figure was:

But his new deal will carry Greinke through his age-38 season. As Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News argued, even the heavy-spending Dodgers and their president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, “can’t be rationally criticized for failing to match” that commitment.

There’s been no shortage of rational criticism for the D-backs’ decision to bring in Miller and minor league left-hander Gabe Speier from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson and right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law dubbed the acquisition cost “comically high,” noting that Arizona was potentially swapping 18 years of big league control for three seasons of Miller.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, one major league executive flat-out roasted the move: “Worst trade I’ve ever seen.”

From this early juncture, it’s much too soon to make such an assessment. But one thing is for certain: The D-backs’ offseason of gambling is either going to pay major dividends in the immediate future or cripple the franchise for years to come.

Chicago Cubs

Only a fool would question the wisdom of Theo Epstein.

With that qualification in mind, let’s go ahead and question the wisdom of the Cubs president of baseball operations.

From the stockpile of high-upside position players to the team’s sneaky-good rotation, the Cubs are a rising force. But that doesn’t mean that Epstein is immune to making the rare, yet expensive, misstep or two.

It starts with Ben Zobrist.

The switch-hitter is the official Swiss Army Knife of baseball, but his four-year, $56 million deal could get ugly on the back side.

Both of the final two years of that agreement could be an issue for Chicago. In 2018, when Zobrist will turn 37 in May, the utility man will be making a cool $16 million. The year after that, he’ll rake in $12 million.

While those salaries sound awfully high for a player of that age, the counterargument is that the Cubs will gladly absorb that money if Zobrist helps lead the team to a World Series before then.

It’s the team’s deal for Jason Heyward that looms as a scarier liability.

No one is debating the worth of the 26-year-old’s glove.

The debate is over his worth as a player, as one manager explained to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated:

The problem with Jason Heyward is that the things you value the most about him now are the things you are not going to have at the back half of the contract: youth and defense. Over time, those only get worse. I would love to have him on a high [average annual value] over a short period of time—give me just his best years—but that’s not going to happen. If I did have him, I would bat him second or fifth, not in the middle. He’s not that kind of hitter. Listen, I get the metrics. I really do. But let’s remember, he’s a corner outfielder. He doesn’t play in the middle. You better love, love, love corner outfield defense to sign him.

Back at the winter meetings, that skipper guessed that Heyward would reel in an eight-year, $144 million payout. The outfielder smashed that prediction, netting an eight-year, $184 haul from the Cubs—with opt-out clauses after the third and fourth seasons to boot.

That’s one expensive No. 2 hitter—especially since so many other prime-time outfielders can’t seem to get so much as a bite on the free-agent market. With New Year’s rapidly approaching, here’s a look at the premier guys capable of patrolling an outfield corner and who remain unaccounted for:

• Yoenis Cespedes
• Chris Davis
• Alex Gordon
• Justin Upton

As the winter wears on, the negotiating power for all those stars just keeps on waning. Ultimately, there’s a real chance that a couple of those players will wind up without a seat in the offseason game of outfield musical chairs. 

As a result, they could be forced to settle for a contract that is just a drop in the bucket compared to what the Cubs guaranteed Heyward.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox badly needed an ace when the offseason began.

And the American League East heavyweights checked that bullet point off the organizational to-do list in a big way, inking David Price to a seven-year, $217 million deal.

If that sticker price sounds egregious, that’s probably because it was. Just let Bob Nightengale of USA Today provide the details.

“Price, a native of Murfreesboro, Tenn., was enamored with joining the [St. Louis] Cardinals, who have reached the postseason the last five seasons, with two pennants and a World Series title. Yet, the Red Sox’s offer simply was too strong for him to refuse.”

So, just how strong was too strong?

According to Nightengale, the Red Sox outbid the Redbirds by “at least $30 million.” Even in the absurdly extravagant world that is the free-agent marketplace, that’s a dramatic overpay on the Red Sox’s part. What’s more, the team sweetened the deal by granting Price the power to bolt town after the 2018 season via an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox got their ace. so good on them. But he’s an ace who’s never won a postseason start and whose seven-year deal costs just three million less than what the Giants will be paying Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija combined for 11 years of employment.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s already Week 7 of the 2015-16 MLB offseason, and Clayton Kershaw still needs a sidekick.

From figuring out who will be backing up baseball’s nastiest starter at Dodger Stadium to trying to explain why so many prominent free-agent bats remain unsigned, there are all sorts of questions to ponder as 2016 inches ever closer.

There’s room in this week’s conversation for talk about whether one of the game’s most underrated bullpen aces could be on the move. But first, let’s get back to Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ work-in-progress rotation.

Who Will Be the No. 2 Starter at Chavez Ravine?

The Jose Fernandez trade talk just won’t go away.

And the Miami Marlins aren’t exactly quashing the noise:

According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the door remains slightly ajar when it comes to the Dodgers and Fernandez:

But based on the Marlins’ staggering reported asking price, the key phrase is likely “no deal close.” Back during the winter meetings, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com explained that the Fish wanted Julio Urias, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and two more players in exchange for the electric Cuban.

For the Marlins, there’s no harm in asking. But that’s the kind of exorbitant demand that would lead Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to hang up the phone and hang up fast.

Lyle Spencer of MLB.com suggested that Friedman should give Billy Beane a ring as he searches for that second ace:

Gray doesn’t generate the same buzz as Fernandez, but the diminutive righty is a rising star in his own right. In 2015, the starter landed third in the American League Cy Young Award voting. And Beane, the Oakland Athletics’ executive vice president of baseball operations, is in no rush to cash in on Gray.

“It’s a fair question,” Beane said, when asked by Joe Stiglich of CSN California about the topic of trading Gray. “And you could imagine how many people, at least early in the winter, were inquiring on him. We were pretty aggressively returning those calls and saying it wasn’t something we were gonna consider. That’s our stance now.”

So where could the Dodgers turn with Fernandez and Gray looking like virtual no-go’s?

Jake Odorizzi is one guy to watch out for. Per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Los Angeles has already checked in with the Tampa Bay Rays about the starter, who turns 26 in March.

Odorizzi doesn’t have nearly the same national profile as Fernandez or even Gray, but there’s still a lot to like about his arm. Last year, the starter was eighth in the AL with a 3.35 ERA. Thanks to his contract situation, he could also be a Dodger for the foreseeable future, as he remains under team control through the 2020 season.

The Answer: Odorizzi

What the Heck Is Going on with the Free-Agent Market for Bats?

The market for top-of-the-line position players has been moving about as fast as a glacier.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports provided the cold hard numbers: “Only two free-agent position players have signed multiyear contracts this offseason for more than $20 million guaranteed—outfielder Jason Heyward and infielder Ben Zobrist.”

Surveying the remaining class of bats, here’s the list of guys who should have already cleared that relatively low bar:

• Chris Davis
• Yoenis Cespedes
• Justin Upton
• Alex Gordon

Davis is the outlier here, as the masher could have already landed a new gig if he had wanted to. As Heyman noted, the Baltimore Orioles “pulled” a seven-year, $154 million offer after Crush Davis and his agent Scott Boras took too long thinking about it.

The slow play is classic Boras, as the super-agent is well-known for his strategy of waiting out the market before securing a megadeal seemingly out of nowhere at the last moment.

But when it comes to the nearly nonexistent market for Cespedes, Upton and Gordon, it’s much more difficult to explain just what’s going on.

Cespedes cracked 35 home runs last year, and so far he doesn’t have a single reported offer.

Noah Syndergaard would like to see the New York Mets make an offer.

“Of course we’re hoping [that he’ll be back],” Syndergaard said, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We all saw the tear he went on from July through the end of the season. We’d love to have that bat back in the lineup, so as long as he’s out there, we’re hoping for that.”

But Joel Sherman of the Post was quick to dash those hopes:

As long as Cespedes remains on the block, Upton could be in a bind. Like La Potencia, Upton is a slugger best suited for left field. But last year, Cespedes trumped Upton in WAR, average, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and RBI, per FanGraphs.

And then there’s Gordon. Unlike Cespedes and Upton, at least the longtime Kansas City Royal has drawn some concrete interest, per Heyman, from clubs like the Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants. Rosenthal also added the Chicago White Sox to that list.

That’s a good start for Gordon.

The problem is that he’s not just competing for a job with all those other corner guys on the free-agent front. He’s also competing with star trade pieces like Carlos Gonzalez. According to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, CarGo—he of 40 home runs in 2015—is available in a swap.

Simply put, the free-agent and trade marketplaces are flush with talent. And word in the industry is that there are more than a few clubs who have no interest in writing any big checks.

That’s a bad look for the game, and even worse news for the players.

The Answer: Thanks in Part to Tanking, Supply is Exceeding Demand

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates Sell High on Mark Melancon?

Neal Huntington, the understated general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, never wins the offseason.

But the clubs that he constructs have a knack for racking up wins during the regular season, as the Bucs have tallied at least 88 Ws in each of the past three campaigns.

The trick is Huntington is always thinking one step ahead and making moves that keep the roster deep yet cost-controlled. With the unheralded Mark Melancon hanging in the trade winds, just such a move could be on tap for the National League Central squad.

“We’ve never had to trade Mark,” Huntington said, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. “It’s always been [a question of] if we’re better with him with us, or if we think it’s a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies.”

That sounds like Huntington is daring rival execs to make him an offer he can’t refuse.

And why shouldn’t he? Melancon, who was eighth in Senior Circuit Cy Young voting in 2015, can become a free agent at the end of next season. The right-hander has put himself on track to score a monster haul next winter.

As a prime candidate to receive a qualifying offer, he’s also all but certain to net the Pirates a compensation pick if he departs. Following that line of reasoning, it would be a shrewd business decision for the team to move Melancon now if the return would significantly beat the value of a comp pick.

The Answer: Not Unless the Pirates Get Overwhelmed

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The good news for MLB‘s most inactive contenders—like the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers—is that it’s not even Christmas yet, which means there’s still plenty of time to shop.

The bad news for those clubs is that the offseason hasn’t gone to script—at least not yet.

As the baseball world prepares to shut down for the holiday season, this is the perfect time to survey the league and figure out which contenders can afford to be patient and which ones should be hitting the panic button.

The squads that fall on the “patient” side of the equation have prominent needs that can be readily filled either via free agency or the trade market. But the teams that land in the “panic” camp have some major weaknesses and happen to be playing in fiercely competitive divisions.

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From trying to decipher what the heck the Los Angeles Dodgers are doing to puzzling over where Yoenis Cespedes will play next season, there are plenty of giant questions left to be answered before the MLB offseason begins its brief holiday hibernation.

While Cespedes isn’t the only free-agent headliner who cracks this list, there’s also room for a veteran infielder who has recently ended up on the trade block.

Departing from the trade and free-agent theme, there’s also a place in the conversation for one National League powerhouse that just can’t seem to catch any luck on the health front.

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The 2015 MLB offseason has been an exercise in patience for prime-time outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton.

Now that Jason Heyward has inked an eight-year, $184 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, the market has been set and the offseason game of outfield musical chairs can begin.

No team wants to be left without a seat—or rather, an outfielder—so the biggest names should start flying off the board in short order.

From predicting a new home for La Potencia to sending Gordon to one of the Kansas City Royals’ division rivals, here are four deals that will go down before New Year’s.

In addition to the free-agent forecasts, there’s also room on the list for a trade involving a vet who smashed 40 home runs in 2015

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The 2015 MLB offseason has been a major bummer for Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes.

The winter meetings are fading into the background and those free-agent mashers are still hunting for that lucrative, and to this point, elusive, payday.

The big leaguers who crack the list that follows fall into two camps. The first are prominent free agents like Crush Davis and La Potencia, whose respective markets have been slow to materialize. Some of those free-agents are stuck unaccounted for because they’re attached to draft pick compensation.

The second group are players whose names have been swirling around in the trade winds, but whose chances of actually getting moved look bleak. Some are playing on outsized contracts that don’t match their on-field production. Others, have ended up here because they’ve dealt with issues in the clubhouse or away from the diamond entirely.

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Finding logical trade destinations for notorious underachievers like Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp is no enviable task.

Once upon a time, Ramirez and Kemp were mashing together in the heart of the order for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now, those guys headline the list of potential trade chips playing on bloated superstar contracts.

Fortunately for the executives who could be tasked with trying to move players like Ramirez and Kemp, there are strategies to help facilitate such deals. The first option is to attach the overpaid big leaguer to an intriguing prospect. The second is to eat some (or potentially a lot of) cash.

After digging through the stats, examining all the contracts and surveying the markets for bats and arms, there’s no question some of these players will be easier to move than others. It’s a race to the bottom, but ultimately it looks like Kemp wins the regrettable distinction of most untradeable of all.

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Johnny Cueto and Jose Fernandez are just two of the big league stars whose future has yet to be determined as the winter meetings recede into the background and the 2015-2016 MLB offseason rolls along.

In addition to Cueto, there are at least a couple of prominent players who are still waiting to hit the free-agent jackpot. Meanwhile, Fernandez isn’t the only dynamic major leaguer who just can’t seem to shake all those pesky trade rumors.

After taking an inventory of all the action in Nashville, Tennessee, here’s a breakdown of the biggest questions (and answers) from the baseball week that was.

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