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While perusing this list of the top MLB salaries in 2014, you have to travel down 22 spots before seeing the first St. Louis Cardinals player. Adam Wainwright checks in there with his $19.5 million payday this season.

Actually, Wainwright would be 24^th since this list doesn’t reflect recent deals signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout.

But that’s not really the point. Many Cards players get paid handsomely for their services. And while it’s true they don’t have the financial resources of the New York Yankees, Dodgers or Angels, they’re not the Little Sisters of the Poor, either.

The Cardinals are rarely in the top 10 in payroll, and they’ve never been a top-five spender. In 2005, they reached their payroll pinnacle at sixth. 

What’s impressive—and telling—about St. Louis’ run of eight National League Championship Series appearances since 2000 is the team hasn’t had to throw around mega bucks to manufacture on-field success.

Most of that has to do with circumstances created by the organization. The front office deserves tons of credit for scouting and player development. Ownership also has made shrewd moves to lock up budding stars into team-friendly deals. The Cardinals have won while maintaining a balance of cheap, younger players to offset pricier veterans.

And then there’s the impact of the city itself. Few places in the sports landscape do a better job at selling players on a culture than St. Louis. It’s impossible to account for the millions saved when a player falls in love with the winning tradition and a deep, loyal fan base.

In the wake of Kershaw’s huge deal with the Dodgers, Wainwright’s deal looked like a steal for the Cardinals. Still, Wainwright insisted he’s content with the five-year, $97 million extension he signed in March of last year. Wainwright told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Once I signed that deal, that was the deal I wanted to sign. I didn’t have to sign it. We worked to get to a number where I felt made it fair for both sides. This is where I wanted to be. Do I think I could have made more money on the free agent market? Absolutely.

But you can’t buy happiness. I’m not going to be happier anywhere else than where I am right now.

The club had its chance to dip its toes into the $20-million-a-year player pool a few seasons ago. Cards fans remember Albert Pujols’ free-agent soap opera in the 2011 offseason.

The Redbirds were world champs, and their best player, a franchise icon, was set to test the open market. Many fans were willing to pay any amount of ownership’s money to keep El Hombre. Even to the point of sacrificing the team’s ability to assemble a winning club around Pujols, keeping the three-time National League MVP had to happen. Nothing else would be tolerated or accepted.

It doesn’t matter which side you believe on how negotiations broke down. Even with the Cardinals’ reported eight-year, $200 million deal, No. 5 was going to make north of $25 million per season to wear the Birds on the Bat.

Ultimately, of course, Pujols signed with the Angels. And who can blame him? His 10-year, $240 million mammoth deal will pay him a ridiculous $30 million in 2021 when he’s 41. The Cardinals wanted him to stay, but they weren’t insane.

The Cardinals have done fine without the player they couldn’t afford to lose. In two subsequent seasons, they’ve reached the NLCS and World Series. Many of the Cardinals faithful who clamored to go all-in to keep him are openly relieved they didn’t. They wince at the thought of the likely repercussions that deal would’ve had on the franchise.

Either Wainwright or Yadier Molina likely wouldn’t have re-signed—and maybe neither. The money simply wouldn’t have been there. Such a financial commitment to Pujols would impact deals for Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter. Forget about Carlos Beltran’s two years in the Lou. Same goes for Jhonny Peralta’s four-year deal last offseason.

Even if Pujols stayed and produced the same impressive numbers as the first 11 seasons in St. Louis, the deal still would look sketchy at best.

Pujols’ production with the Angels continues to drop while his time in the trainer’s room increases. He missed the majority of last season due to injury. The effects of Father Time give little hope of him returning to superstar levels attained with the Cardinals.

St. Louis entered last offseason desperately searching for a shortstop. Rumors linked the team to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. The Cardinals had the financial flexibility to absorb his hefty price tag, and they had the prospects to pull it off. But such a deal, whether rooted in reality or not, didn’t make sense.

The Cardinals aren’t immune to bad decisions. But the club’s few misses aren’t the type of payroll-crippling mistakes that would send the franchise into a recession. Clubs with a $110 million payroll can’t afford to invest a quarter of that on one player, no matter who he is.

Look at what’s happened to the Minnesota Twins after the eight-year, $184 million deal given to Joe Mauer following his MVP season in 2009. He hit 28 home runs that year. The next four seasons combined, he’s hit 33 homers. Meanwhile, his $23 million annual salary accounts for at least a quarter of the team’s payroll.

Not coincidentally, the Twins have gone 195-291 in the last three seasons.

Few teams get the kind of return on their investment as the Cardinals.

Craig batted .316 while hitting 13 homers and driving in 97 runs last season. And that’s despite missing nearly all of September with an ankle injury. He got paid $1.75 million.

The top three earners among National League first basemen in 2013 were Adrian Gonzalez ($21.8M), Ryan Howard ($20M) and Joey Votto ($18.9M).

Gonzalez had a great season for the Dodgers with a .293-22-100 line. Votto went .305-24-73. Not too shabby. But Howard was limited to 11 homers and 286 at-bats due to injury.

Starters Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn went a combined 40-24 with a 3.33 ERA last season. Together they made $1.5 million.

Carpenter, who finished fourth in the NL MVP race, had 199 hits, scored 126 runs and made $504,000.

The team also got great returns on its larger investments.

Matt Holliday had the third-highest salary among NL left fielders ($17M) last season. Among qualifiers at that position, he was fourth in homers (22) and first in RBI (94), average (.300) and OPS (.879).

Signed to a five-year, $75 million extension during spring training last season, Molina lived up to his new $14.2 million salary by finishing second in NL MVP voting.

Clearly, Wainwright’s extension made him complacent. Now earning $12 million, he finished second in the Cy Young voting after a 19-win campaign.

The Cardinals are happy to let others hand out enormous deals that look bad before the ink’s dry on the contract. Four World Series appearances and two titles in 10 seasons show they’re investing the right way.

All salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com unless otherwise noted.

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The St. Louis Cardinals were tabbed by Baseball America in 2013 as the top minor league system in Major League Baseball. That marked a massive turnaround for an organization that had been consistently ranked near the bottom over the past 15 years.

But even without national acclaim, the Cards won. They benefited from quality over quantity, as players like Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina emerged into stars. When St. Louis won World Series titles in ‘06 and ‘11, Baseball America ranked the farm system 21st and 24th, respectively.

Now the Cardinals own a thriving talent base that is capable of sustaining big league success for the foreseeable future. Last season, a league-best 27 players that were drafted by St. Louis helped lead the Redbirds to their eighth National League Championship Series appearance since 2000.

On the list for the Cardinals’ top 10 prospects to start the 2014 season is a diverse mix of big-time bats and impact arms. This list will focus on players without MLB experience and puts added weight for those who are closer to being MLB-ready.

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The team St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny plans to take north to Cincinnati for Opening Day is almost set.

Aside from determining the final bullpen spot, the last week in Jupiter, Fla., is used for rotation positioning, lineup tinkering and ensuring the starters are ready for the 162-game grind.

It’s also a time to reflect on the spring training and what players made the most—and least—of their time in Cards camp.

Winners

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong found his confidence in camp and left little doubt he deserves to be the starting second baseman on March 31. He batted .372 with a 1.100 OPS, hit two homers and displayed outstanding defense.

“(Wong) has answered a lot of questions,” Matheny explained to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “He’s really done a nice job of taking advantage of the opportunity.”

Matheny has used Wong throughout the lineup, even batting the rookie second. While short on the pop the Cardinals are accustomed to getting from that spot, his speed would be intriguing behind Matt Carpenter.

Peter Bourjos

Peter Bourjos’ defensive reputation gave him the edge over incumbent center fielder Jon Jay heading into camp. Having a far superior spring offensively, in addition to reinforcing his brilliant glove work, makes him the clear starter.

Bourjos told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com that he hopes to continue to get love for more than just his glove:

The last few years have been tough. I may not be a .330 hitter, but I’m definitely better than people give me credit for. One of your buddies will show you an article, and it’s really nice about the defensive stuff and not so much the offensive stuff. It’s one thing I’ve been striving for, to become a better hitter and prove people wrong.

Bourjos had his customary strikeout issues, but he drew some walks and showed off his speed. That ability will help even batting near the bottom of the order. It also overcomes range deficiencies from corner outfielders Matt Holliday and Allen Craig.

Pat Neshek

To make the club, Pat Neshek not only had to pitch well, he also needed a break.

Jaime Garcia’s bum left shoulder and Jason Motte’s slowed rehab left two spots open in the bullpen. Neshek claimed one vacancy by posting a 3.38 ERA over eight innings.

Historically, Neshek is tough on righties and soft on lefties. But Matheny saw enough this spring to believe he’s more than a right-handed version of lefty specialist Randy Choate.

The submarine hurler won’t last long in relief, though, if he can’t continue to hold his own against southpaws. Motte’s May return date and Jorge Rondon’s strong spring put extra pressure on Neshek to deliver early.

Joe Kelly

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. That’s the case with Joe Kelly, who had a forgettable spring while being thoroughly outpitched by Carlos Martinez in the supposed fifth-starter battle.

Despite those numbers, Kelly earns the last place in the rotation. That hints at Matheny‘s desire all along to have Martinez in the eighth inning. Kelly’s effectiveness as a starter down the stretch last season for the Cardinals also carried some weight with the skipper.

If Motte can move back into a late-inning relief role in the first couple of months, Martinez could bump Kelly back to his usual long-relief slot.

Losers

Jon Jay

Jay wasn’t going to be the better glove man in center for the Cards. So he had to have a superior spring offensively in order to earn a platoon with Bourjos.

Posting a disappointing .167 average cemented Bourjos’ starter status and left Jay moving around the outfield in an attempt to boost his value.

Jay’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy, but his playing time could be significantly cut. As long as Bourjos holds his own with the bat while displaying stellar defense, he’ll be on the bench most nights.

Oscar Taveras

Oscar Taveras presumably was healthy and ready to make a case for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Except that he wasn’t.

The Cardinals’ young stallion stumbled out of the starting gate, strutted his stuff briefly, then pulled up lame. Now Taveras will get the chance to regain his stud status in Triple-A Memphis.

Taveras’ mettle will be tested in the minors after the luster from this star prospect was tarnished. The front office will find out early how he copes with the disappointment, particularly with fellow outfield prospects Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty leaving positive impressions with Matheny and Co.

Jaime Garcia

Garcia will start the 2014 season the same way he ended 2013: on the disabled list.

The lefty’s throwing shoulder acted up early in spring training, prompting the team to shut him down and look for alternatives in the rotation.

The season—and career—for Garcia will come down to his ability to pitch with discomfort. Pain, he says, he’s always dealt with on some level in his shoulder and elbow.

“It’s always been my elbow,” Garcia told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s part of my career. The 2010 season is probably the best I’ve ever felt.

“My goal is to be ready to go. It could be a month. It could be… who knows?”

Soon, Garcia will get back on a mound on some back field and throw for a handful of on-lookers. But it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll take the ball again in front of thousands in St. Louis.

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It’s been a revolving door at shortstop and second base for the St. Louis Cardinals for a decade. Yet, the lack of continuity at those positions hasn’t hindered on-field success. The Cards have reached four World Series and won two titles since 2004 while often employing a little more than utility players at each spot.

In 2014, the Redbirds will look to end the yearly duct-tape job up the middle by pairing rookie second baseman Kolten Wong with free agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta.

Peralta signed a four-year deal early in free agency. Around the same time, the Cardinals made a trade that essentially handed the starting job to Wong.

The Cardinals haven’t had the same second base/shortstop starting combination for consecutive years on Opening Day since Fernando Vina and Edgar Renteria shared the stage together from 2000-03.

How ironic that a franchise once blessed with cornerstone players up the middle in Tom Herr and Ozzie Smith would get by with stopgap options for so long.

Having two impact players in the middle of the diamond would be a welcome twist. Since 2008, Cesar Izturis, Khalil Greene, Brendan Ryan, Ryan Theriot, Rafael Furcal and Pete Kozma have started Opening Day at short.

Adam Kennedy, Ryan, Skip Schumaker (twice) and Daniel Descalso (twice) have received that same honor at second.

Not exactly Robinson Cano and Troy Tulowitzki.

In fairness, they haven’t been stiffs. Each one made an impact, especially in the postseason.

Whether it’s Kozma’s and Descalso’s timely hits in the 2012 National League Division Series, Schumaker’s double in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, or Furcal’s glove work in that same contest, they all played a role in St. Louis’ tremendous run of success.

Entering the offseason on the heels of a disappointing loss to the Boston Red Sox in the Fall Classic, shortstop was the only glaring weakness for a Cardinals squad loaded with talent and depth.

Kozma, even with his occasional heroics and stellar defense, wasn’t hitting enough to justify a full-time gig. Among National League shortstops with at least 300 at-bats last season, he ranked last with a .273 on-base percentage while slugging a hideous .548. As much as his defense was an asset, his bat was a greater detriment.

On too many nights, there were two automatic outs at the bottom of the Cards’ lineup.

So the St. Louis front office went shortstop shopping equipped with financial flexibility and a surplus of trade chips. Quickly turned off by an unappealing market, general manager John Mozeliak looked to the free agent class. Before Thanksgiving, he had his man, inking Peralta to a four-year, $52 million contract.

“We knew center field was very important, but the shortstop market on the other hand was one that was not deep in free agents,” Mozeliak told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com at the time of the signing. “There were really two being bantered about us. For us, it was really focusing on someone who could hit from the right side, somebody that was a steady defensive player, someone that had experience and could fit right in. We certainly explored the trade market at many levels, trying to see what we could do there, but the acquisition costs seemed very preventative for us to move forward with that.”

But Peralta would travel to St. Louis carrying more than just his consistent bat and solid glove. He brought along baggage in the form of the 50-game suspension he served last season with the Tigers as the result of Major League Baseball’s Biogenesis investigation.

Since signing with the Cardinals, Peralta has said all the right things. Teammates have given him a clean slate.

“I know a lot of fans are going to say a lot of things,” Peralta explained to Paul White of USA Today. “It’s baseball, man. You need to forget about it and play baseball. We’ll move forward and try to forget about it.”

Cards fans, widely regarded as the most respectful and knowledgeable in baseball, have embraced Peralta. The faithful who fill Busch Stadium nightly won’t ask for much, just an honest effort and respect for a team and game they love dearly.

It’s the perfect situation for Peralta. He’ll play for a perennial winner in a town where the fans will cut him some slack. He’ll get the benefit of the doubt. The past is in the past.

Peralta is a .268 career hitter who’s never hit fewer than 10 home runs in a full season. He has four campaigns of 20 or more homers to his credit—the last coming in 2011.

According to FanGraphs, Peralta had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Ranking) of 3.5 last season in Detroit. Kozma’s 6.7 UZR in 2013 speaks to his defensive brilliance, but it also illustrates how competent Peralta is with the glove.

Peralta’s presence gives the Cardinals their best all-around shortstop since Renteria left in 2005. His new double-play partner, the rookie from Hawaii, could give the Redbirds fans a dynamic tandem at second and short like they haven’t seen since the days of Herr and The Wizard.

Wong has plus skills across the board. Defense may be his calling card, but he also possesses great speed and some pop.

The ability Wong showed in the minors gave Mozeliak the confidence to deal hometown favorite David Freese to the Los Angeles Angels, allowing Matt Carpenter to slide from second to third.

Wong struggled to display any of those abilities during last season’s September call-up. He had the entire offseason to marinate on that embarrassing pickoff to end Game 4 of the World Series.

“I didn’t do anything to make people believe that I’m ready to be there. I know that,” Wong told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch before spring training. “All of the games, all of the time I had and I didn’t prove it to people that I’m ready. … That showed me that I had a lot of work left to do to be ready to compete. That’s what I’m doing. I want to make sure this time, going into spring, that’s not the case, that there’s not a question.”

Then in December, Wong had to deal with the passing of his mother, Keala Wong, who lost her long battle with cancer. He came to spring training in Jupiter adorned with a new tattoo to honor his mom.

“It’s something that I’m proud of,” Wong shared with Goold. “This means everything to me.”

Wong went to work, eager to prove he belonged in the big leagues. He was determined to earn the starting assignment rather than being the beneficiary of trade circumstances.

Since starting the Grapefruit League 0-for-10, Wong is one of the hottest hitter in spring training. He’s batting .565 since, with two homers and eight RBI.

A week after talk of Wong possibly starting the season in Triple-A, he’s cemented his place on the Opening Day roster.

Wong and Peralta will take the field side by side in Cincinnati for their first Opening Day together. The Cardinals hope it’s the start of something special.

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What is Trevor Rosenthal’s long-term role with the St. Louis Cardinals?

For 2014, the answer’s easy. Rosenthal will lock down the ninth. After securing the closer job late last season, he emerged as a late-inning force in the Cards’ playoff run.

But for 2015 and beyond, all bets are off. Or at least they should be. While Rosenthal enjoys closing, he’s stated in the past his desire to start. 

Early in spring training, Rosenthal talked about his situation with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Starting would be a different challenge. Coming into the organization, I always kind of envisioned that being the end result.

The last time Rosenthal started, he was 8-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 94 innings for Double-A Springfield in 2012. Then he got the call to Triple-A, posting a 4.20 ERA in three starts.

In 2011, Rosenthal had his first taste as a regular in the starting rotation. He struck out 133 in 120 1/3 innings for Low-A Quad Cities. The 4.11 ERA wasn’t overly impressive until you factor in the shoddy defense behind him. According to Baseball Instinct, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate was 3.22.

Rosenthal had struggled in August, as the 7.12 ERA that month hinted at the strains of a workload over a full season. But he impressed the Cards’ front office during spring training in 2012, prompting St. Louis to bump its flame-throwing prospect to the Texas League.

The repertoire is there for Rosenthal to succeed in the rotation. The high-90s fastball is his calling card. The natural sinking action creates plenty of ground balls. The power slider is a great complement. And while he doesn’t use the changeup often in his current role, it was an improved offering during his time in the minors.

In a short period of time, Rosenthal has emerged as an elite closer. And considering the club’s starting depth, it’s a no-brainer to keep him planted in the ninth inning this season. However, pitchers with this type of arm don’t grow on trees. It would behoove the Cardinals to find out if he could translate his success to the rotation.

Winning in today’s game has become more reliant on a strong bullpen. Still, 200 quality innings from a starter offers more value than 70 innings of relief, no matter how dominant.

Jason Motte’s return from Tommy John surgery could factor in Rosenthal’s future. He established himself as a stopper by saving 42 games for the Cardinals in 2012 after excelling in October for a World Series winner in 2011.

Motte’s a free agent after the season. It’s doubtful he’d re-up with the Redbirds as a set-up man knowing the money available on the open market.

Every year, the role is a revolving door. Teams are finding success without a mainstay in place.

Tampa Bay has won 90 or more games in four straight seasons using three different closers.

Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel is the only pitcher to save at least 30 games for the same team the last three seasons. The four teams in the last two Fall Classics each utilized different closers from the pitchers who started the season.

Veteran reliever Edward Mujica had four career saves before knocking out 37 for the Redbirds last season.

Then there’s the money factor.

Teams are increasingly reluctant to pay big dollars for closers. The Orioles decided to trade Jim Johnson, who had back-to-back 50-save seasons, rather than pay the arbitration-eligible right-hander a salary close to $10 million.

Rosenthal may never cash in on big-time starter money like Clayton Kershaw. But even average big-league starters are garnering $15 million or more per season in the current market.

Kimbrel, arguably the game’s top stopper, signed a four-year, $42 million extension. His biggest payday will come in 2017 when he’ll make $13 million. The Cubs are paying Edwin Jackson $11 million, and his ERA was barely under 5.00 last season.

I’m sure Rosenthal is well aware of the discrepancy.

It’s understandable to ask where Rosenthal fits into a St. Louis rotation filled with established young arms and a bevy of intriguing prospects on the way.

Adam Wainwright is signed through 2018. Of Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller, Lynn is the closest to free agency, but that won’t come until 2018. Carlos Martinez could be ready to graduate to the rotation. Jaime Garcia, Tyler Lyons, Joe Kelly, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney also are in the mix.

So why mess with a good thing?

Rosenthal could fizzle as a starter. He could get injured. Maybe he’d tire after a few innings, lose velocity. Those issues contributed to former Cardinals reliever Todd Worrell moving to the bullpen in the ‘80s. He excelled there.

Rosenthal already is thriving as a closer. But just imagine what he could become as a starter.

You’ll never know until you try.

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In most areas, the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the heavyweights. Power lineup. Power starters. Power relievers.

The bench, however? Well, let’s be generous by calling them lightweights.

For a team possessing all the ingredients to reach the World Series this season, a bench absent of any semblance of pop could be a thorn in their strategy for success.

The five players expected to comprise that unit for the Redbirds in 2014—Jon Jay, Shane Robinson, Mark Ellis, Tony Cruz and Daniel Descalso—have 147 career homers in 8,390 at-bats. Ellis hit 19 home runs in a season, but that happened way back in 2007. Remove his 105 long balls from the equation, and you’re at 42 homers in 3,451 ABs.

Opposing pitchers can motion their outfielders to play in a few more steps when a player from this “fearsome fivesome” arrives at the dish. Collectively, they’ve hit just .206 in 266 pinch-hit appearances with two home runs, both coming from Jay.

St. Louis’ most threatening pinch-hitter from last season, Matt Adams, is now a full-time starter at first base. He accounted for all three of the Cards’ pinch-hit long balls while batting .314 with a .968 OPS.

As I’ve illustrated in a previous article, the Cardinals’ home run production dropped significantly from 2012 to 2013. A casualty of that power outage was the team’s inability to come from behind, especially late.

When the Cardinals were ahead in games last season, they led the National League with a .287 average and 68 homers. Conversely, when they were behind, they hit .240 (ninth) with 26 homers (last).

Division rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati own stellar bullpens, including lock-down closers in Jason Grilli and Aroldis Chapman. Rallies against quality relievers are made that much more challenging with an assembly of Punch-and-Judy pinch-hitters.

Plus, unlike the Redbirds, the Reds and Pirates are equipped with bench muscle. Cincy has Neftali Soto and Chris Heisey. The Bucs carry Travis Snider and Chris McGuiness.

Slugging options could emerge for the Cardinals later in the season.

Top prospect Oscar Taveras will likely get more seasoning at Triple-A Memphis. But barring an injury, he’ll debut in St. Louis sometime in 2014. He’d be a formidable late-inning option or push a strong bat from Allen Craig or Adams to the bench on days he starts.

Randal Grichuk, who was acquired from the Angels in the David Freese deal, hit 22 homers last season at Double-A. With a crowded outfield in St. Louis, his path to playing time in the short term will come as a potential fifth outfielder/bench bat.

Another outfield prospect, Stephen Piscotty, hit 15 homers last year between Single-A and Double-A. He’d admittedly be a long shot for this role, but the Cardinals certainly haven’t shown an aversion to thrusting young players into the limelight.

Last season, it took the Cardinals 118 games before rallying for a win after trailing by three or more runs. They ended up 1-57 when trailing after eight innings.

Teams that reach the postseason frequently rely on late-inning magic to play into October. That hasn’t been the Cards’ journey—at least not recently.

The Redbirds should be good again in 2014. And a weak bench may not make a difference. It didn’t keep the team from a trip to the Fall Classic last season. But it’s the one noticeable chink in their strong, red armor.

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The 2013 St. Louis Cardinals scored 18 more runs than in 2012 despite hitting 34 fewer home runs. A season after being ranked No. 7 in homers in the National League, they plummeted to No. 13.

Five Cardinals blasted 20 or more long balls in 2012 compared to two last season. And one of them—Carlos Beltran—left via free agency.

Is there a rebound in store for the Redbirds in the power department?

Before that question can be answered, let’s examine the causes for the drop-off in production.

Allen Craig’s total dropped from 22 to 13. He didn’t go deep in April and had just 14 at-bats in September due to injury, so that certainly played a role. But it doesn‘t explain everything.

Craig’s fly-ball rate went from 33 to 28 percent, marking a third straight season in decline. That percentage jumped to 2012 levels in June when he enjoyed his largest home run output with six. However, in July and August, when fly balls travel well in the humid St. Louis summer, he managed just four big flies.

Craig also has dealt with significant leg injuries. In 2011, a broken kneecap cost him several months. Last season, an ankle injury cost him most of September and the postseason. As he approaches 30, if leg issues persist, it becomes more difficult to recover power.

For Yadier Molina, the 22 home runs in 2012 could serve as the outlier. His fly-ball rate remained consistent with previous seasons, but his home run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/F) spiked to new levels. That percentage leveled out in 2013, hence the 10-homer drop.

David Freese‘s below-average fly-ball rate didn’t suggest a 20-homer season was on the horizon in 2012. However, a career-high 500 at-bats coupled with a 20 percent HR/F rate combined to create a career year—and one he wasn’t likely to repeat.

The good fortune ran out for Freese last season, as the HR/F rate dipped to 10 percent, and the ground-ball rate rose to 55 percent.

Beltran put 24 over the fence last season, falling well short of 2012 totals. The 20 percent HR/F rate that helped him achieve 32 homers dipped to 13 percent.

The Cardinals’ home ballpark also did its part to suppress the long ball.

Busch Stadium ranked No. 24 in the majors last season, surrendering 0.837 home runs a game. That’s down from 0.915 in 2012. But even 2013 levels represent a slight increase for a park that averaged 0.797 homers a game its first six years of existence.

Losing a perennial 20-homer slugger like Beltran doesn‘t bode well for the Cardinals reaching 2012 levels this season. But new additions, developing youngsters and a reversal of fortune for players like Craig and/or Molina give the Redbirds the potential for an increase from last season.

Matt Adams is the full-time first baseman in St. Louis. After hitting 17 homers in 296 at-bats last season, there’s no reason to believe he won’t surpass 20. And if he improves against lefties, a 30-homer campaign is realistic.

Jhonny Peralta and his nine straight seasons of 10-plus homers—and four seasons of 20 or more—replaces shortstop Pete Kozma, who has three major league long balls. Enough said.

Rookie Oscar Taveras, who hit 23 homers in Double-A in 2012, projects as a 25- to 30-homer player in the majors. While an unrealistic goal for this season, he could reach double digits with enough playing time. Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch addresses how the rookie could impact the Redbirds in multiple ways.

While some stats explain Craig’s drop in power, another hints at a rebound. His 11 percent HR/F rate last season was significantly lower than the previous two seasons, suggesting he’ll be closer to his 2012 numbers.

Matt Holliday hasn’t had a 30-homer season since 2007 with the Rockies. But he did come close to that mark with the Cardinals in 2010 and 2012. A player with eight straight 20-plus home run seasons only needs a smidgen of good fortune to crack 30 again.

Overall, statistical trends indicate the 2014 Redbirds will be closer to last year’s home run production. However, the development of sluggers like Adams and Taveras reflect the potential for a significant power boost in the future.

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