Kuzul

This past November when new Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers admitted that he would be willing to move star outfielder and former No. 1 draft choice Justin Upton, many people were slightly confused.  Not only was Justin Upton only 23 years old, but he was also clearly Arizona’s top player and had just inked a long-term deal (with the Diamondbacks former GM) to stay in Arizona with a relatively team-friendly price tag of only $50 million over the next five seasons. 

However, Upton was coming off what some people were calling a down year.  In 2009, Upton hit 26 home runs and .OPS’d a MVP-esque .898.  However in 2010, Upton only clubbed 17 home runs and saw his .OPS drop to a more modest .798.  In the following days after Towers admitted he had floated Upton to other teams, a flurry of rumors flew around about teams calling for the Diamondbacks star youngster. 

Fast forward to spring training, and the rumors have died down; it has become quite clear that Kevin Towers will not find a new home for his (now) 24-year-old right fielder.  One executive said the asking price for Upton was, “ridiculous.”  The price was, then believed to be at least four or five talented MLB ready players.  The kind of guys who only get moved for the best of the best or not even traded at all.

Sound ridiculous?  Consider this: Justin Upton may very well be the next Barry Bonds.  Not the Bonds who while using steroids in 2001 hit 73 home runs…and only 49 (!!) singles.  But more along the lines of the Bonds who was a perennial MVP candidate from about 1989-1998. 

In Upton’s first 1,700 plate appearances, he has shown just that, in fact, his numbers are surprisingly similar to Bonds’ first 1,700 PAs.  Upton’s .OPS was .828, Bonds’ was a slightly lower .814.  Upton belted 60 home runs (one every 25 at bats), and Bonds drilled 65 (one every 23 at bats).  Bonds only collected 165 RBI while Upton plated 208 runners. 

Their slash lines were remarkably similar: Upton hit .272/.352/.471, while Bonds hit .258/.343/.471 over the same stretch of their careers.  The only significant difference between the two comes to us from WAR (wins above replacement), and this can be attributed to Upton’s average defense versus Bonds allegedly elite D.  Upton was worth 7.7 WAR while Bonds was worth almost twice that at 14.4 WAR. 

However, we can certainly question the reliability of all ways for accounting for defense into WAR for players who did not play in our current sabermetrics era.  Today, WAR uses the defensive metric UZR which has only been around since 2002; UZR comes from batted ball data.  For all calculations of past players’ WAR, defense is measured with a much-less reliable formula which takes fielding percentage, assists and putouts into play. 

So, how can we determine what to expect from the younger Upton brother over the next few seasons?  I believe that we can simply look to Bonds as a good indicator of how Justin will fare next season.  (His projections may be of particular interest to anyone out there who plays fantasy baseball.) 

Over Bonds’ next 1,900 plate appearances, he hit .279/.388/.496, and in addition, he averaged 26 home runs and 96 RBI.  His .OPS was a solid .886 and his WAR was an astronomical eight-plus a year.   The home run and RBI totals match Upton’s career high, so we know he is capable of producing at those levels in 2011, probably with just a little bit of a drop off in the HR department. 

The .388 on base percentage is probably a bit out of Upton’s reach due to Bonds over his next 1,900 PAs had a BB% well over 12 percent which is ridiculously high.  He even peaked at 15 percent in 1990.  That BB% is so high that only six players in 2010 had a BB% of over 14; they were: Daric Barton, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista and Jason Heyward.  So while Upton’s career base on ball percentage is better than 10.5 percent, he will probably not reach the same status as Bonds.  But how much of a difference will the BB% difference of probably about 2 percent make on .OBP?

I looked to the stats to find out.  In 2010, three players made 675 plate appearances: Matt Holliday, Austin Jackson and Michael Cuddyer.  Holliday’s BB% was 10.2 percent, Jackson’s was 7 percent and Cuddyer’s was 8.6 percent.  When I subtracted the players’ .OBP from their batting averages (.AVG), I came down to a stat that I imagine is similar to .ISO (isolated slugging percentage) which for brevities sake, I will call “.ISOBB”. 

Holliday’s BB% was 1.6 percent greater than Cuddyer’s, and when I subtracted their .ISOBB from one another’s, I came to find that the 1.6 percent BB% rate was good for .013 points in .OBP.  To check this, I compared Austin Jackson and Michael Cuddyer, whom also have 1.6 percent difference in their BB% and came to find that the difference in .ISOBB was also .013.

The next step to determining Upton’s .OBP for 2011 is to determine his .ISOBB; Bonds’ was .109 which is pretty astronomical, and we have already established the fact that Upton’s will be around .013 to .020 different based on his lower BB%.  Upton’s .ISOBB should end up around .093.

The .279 average that Bond’s posted was lowered significantly by a .248 average one year.  In fact, over the course of both players’ earlier careers, Upton has shown that he possesses a far better batting average.  He hit over .300 in his second full season, a feat Bond’s didn’t accomplish until his fourth season.  So Upton, we can assume (safely), will probably hit higher than .279 in 2011; let’s say .284.  Which when adding in his .ISOBB, puts his .OPB at .377. 

The last thing to consider is slugging percentage, and Bonds probably edges out Justin Upton in this category like in BB%.  How much? Well, during their first 1,700 PAs, Bonds’ .ISO was .014 better at .213, compared to Upton’s .199.  Over the next three seasons, Bond’s didn’t improve much, rising to about .219.  If Upton follows the same improvement, he should float in around .205 which would put him at a .489 slugging percentage.

All in all, Upton’s 2011 season should look something like this: .284/.377/.489 with about 25 home runs and 95 RBI.  I’ll be curious to see exactly what he does end up doing.  As for the predictions by the mathematicians/computers that are paid/designed to do predictions, when the average of fangraph.com’s “Marcel” and “Bill James” predictions are taken, it results in a .285/.367/.489 line…pretty similar to what I came up with actually. 

So is Justin Upton the next Barry Bonds? We’ll have to see, but I would say yes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last year, the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers missed the playoffs entirely.  The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees made the playoffs, but sat the World Series out while the San Francisco Giants met up with the Texas Rangers for baseball’s biggest series.

At the end of the 2010 season, ranking the top teams based on their finish would have looked something like this:

1.  San Francisco Giants
2.  Texas Rangers
3.  New York Yankees
4.  Philadelphia Phillies
5.  Tampa Bay Rays
6.  Atlanta Braves
7.  Minnesota Twins
8.  Cincinnati Reds

The 2011 offseason has changed the landscape of baseball dramatically from the end of last year. 

Theo Epstein, the Red Sox GM, must have despised watching the hated Yankees make it to the ALCS while his ball club sat at home.  The Red Sox offseason, which seemed close to disaster when Victor Martinez jumped ship, suddenly shines as maybe the best offseason a team has ever had. 

The flurry of moves they made started out with the biggest splash of the early offseason (except for Jayson Werth’s $126 million contract with Washington) when the Red Sox acquired Adrian Gonzalez from The San Diego Padres.  Gonzalez is one of baseball’s best hitters, since 2007, he has hit 137 home runs and hit .284. 

While that would be enough for most teams, the Red Sox were not finished.  They then inked Carl Crawford to the second-richest contract ever signed by an outfielder, at $142 million dollars over seven years.  It was also the only nine-figure deal ever handed out to a player who has never hit 20 home runs in a season.  Crawford owns a career .296/.337/.444 line, with an average of 54 stolen bases a season.  He will bring an incredible spark to the top of the line up and surely score many runs behind Gonzalez. 

The Sox also acquired former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks for the next two years on a $12-million deal.  Look for him to replace Jonathan Papelbon as closer in 2012.  Boston also added Matt Albers, Andrew Miller and Dan Wheeler.  The Red Sox are surely baseball’s most improved team for 2011 and might even be the all-out World Series favorite.

The second-most improved team has to be the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers weakness the last couple seasons has been starting pitching.  To start the offseason off they acquired a talented young arm from the Toronto Blue Jays in Shaun Marcum.  Marcum pitched to a 3.64 earned run average and won 13 games in 2010. 

Also, the Brewers went out and made a trade comparable to the Red Sox addition of Gonzalez by acquiring Zack Greinke, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball for a package of prospects and Alcides Escobar.  Greinke won the Cy Young Award in 2009 and in the last two years has thrown 449.1 innings, won 26 games and struck out 423 batters with an ERA of 3.14, not to mention he is only 26 years old.  The Brewers offense was already stacked with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and now they have a great rotation with the additions of Marcum and Greinke.

The Detroit Tigers started the offseason with a bang by resigning a number of their players; including Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge and now Magglio Ordonez.  Also, the Tigers added a number of free agents that should put them over the top of last year’s American League Central division winner the Minnesota Twins. 

First, the Tigers stole catcher/first baseman/designated hitter Victor Martinez from the Red Sox.  Martinez is a great hitter, who is especially valuable when he is behind the plate.  Next, the Tigers got reliever Joaquin Benoit and started a trend of relievers getting three-year contracts.  Benoit pitched 63 games of 1.34 ERA ball in 2010 and, while never being that good before, is going to make the Tigers bullpen that much better.

The next most improved team is the Philadelphia Phillies. They only made one addition for the 2011 season, but it was the most surprising move of the last few years.  They re-signed starting pitcher Cliff Lee, who they traded during the 2009 offseason to the Seattle Mariners.  Lee went on to mow down the Yankees in a Texas Rangers uniform just like he did in the 2009 World Series. 

The reason this signing was so shocking was the fact that it came out of left field. 

All offseason, everyone had expected Lee to sign with either the Yankees or the Rangers, he even expected to pitch for one of those two clubs.  Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Cliff Lee signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for five years and $120 million.  This was also surprising because it is less money and years than the Yankees or Rangers offered. 

The Phillies will go into 2010 with the best rotation of all time because Cliff Lee joined Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have to also be considered among the most improved.  They have re-signed Ted Lilly and Vicente Padilla.  They added starting pitcher Jon Garland (3.47 ERA) and reliever Matt Guerrier (3.17 ERA).  The Dodgers also stole one of the key players from division rival San Francisco’s World Series-winning team in Juan Uribe.  In 2010 Uribe smashed 24 home runs and was solid at three different infield positions (short stop, second base and third base).

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Oakland Athletics are two other ball clubs that are greatly improved.  They both have a lot of ground to cover before they can be considered in the playoff picture for 2011, though. 

On the other hand, the New York Yankees are virtually unimproved from 2010.  They added Russell Martin, but they lost Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.  It could be worse, though, because the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays are worse off than they were at the conclusion of the 2010 season.  Texas lost Cliff Lee, and the Rays lost almost the entire top of their line up in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.  That’s not it, either, as the Rays lost the core of their bullpen in Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and eventually Grant Balfour.

At the end of the 2011 season, I see the top eight teams looking like this:

1.  Boston Red Sox
2.  Philadelphia Phillies
3.  Milwaukee Brewers
4.  New York Yankees
5.  Detroit Tigers
6.  San Francisco Giants
7.  Los Angeles Dodgers
8.  Texas Rangers

No matter how it turns out, 2011 should be dominated by the all the teams listed above, who have greatly improved.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

On December 8th the Seattle Mariners signed free-agent catcher Miguel Olivo to a two-year contract worth $7 million with a club option for a third year.  Just a few days prior to the agreement with Olivo, Seattle signed free-agent DH Jack Cust to a one-year $2.5 million deal.  Personally I am in favor of neither deal. 

Jack Cust is a prototypical DH.  He is a hack anywhere in the field and the only value he can generate is with his left-handed bat.  The defensive metric UZR, which measures defense in the extra runs saved (or cost) by having the player in the field rates Cust poorly.  Cust cost’s his team over 20 runs a season when in the outfield. 

At the plate Cust is a “three true outcomes” hitter.  The three true outcomes are walks, strikeouts and home runs.  The last two years Russell Branyan has been the team’s resident “three true outcomes” player.  In 112 games in 2010 for the Oakland Athletics, Jack Cust hit 13 home runs, walked 68 times and struck out a 127 times. 

On the outside of the deal, Cust looks like a solid addition; he walks a lot, he batted .272 last year and he is only a few years removed from a season in which he hit 33 home runs.  Additionally, he was worth a decent 2.4 WAR, which measures the wins a player provides over a replacement-level player.  Despite these factors, Cust has all the signs of being terrible next year.  Even though he is only 31 years old, Cust may be on the rapid decline in much the same way Richie Sexson was his last two years here.

The last four years Cust has seen his HR/FB drop, the statistic (in form of a percent) is used to measure how many of the hitter’s fly balls resulted in home runs.  In 2007, 31.7 percent of Jack Cust’s fly balls left the yard, however last season only 14.9 percent did.  This is quite alarming for a guy who gets most of his value from smashing long balls.  In Sexson’s time with the Mariners he faced a similar fate, going from 24.5 percent HR/FB down to a lowly 17.4 percent. 

One other alarming thing about Cust: He hits most of his home runs to left field, which is especially bad when it comes to hitting in Safeco.  In 2010, Cust hit seven of his 13 home runs to left, one to center and five to right field.  His slugging percentage backed this up because he slugged .679 when he pulled the ball (to right field) and he slugged .787 when he hit the ball to left field.  You can look at his home run chart for 2010 here. 

The other free agent Seattle added also seems to be a bad move, although this time it is a player who has spent time in a Mariners uniform before.  Miguel Olivo, a catcher, came to Seattle in 2004 with two other players as part of the trade that sent Freddy Garcia to the Chicago White Sox.  Olivo was jettisoned by Seattle during the 2005 season and has played in Florida, Kansas City and Colorado since then. 

He is exactly the type of hitter who fails in Seattle, a right-handed hitter who doesn’t walk or hit for average, and can only pull the ball to left field.  Safeco is particularly hard on right-handed hitters, and Olivo’s only offensive upside is from pulling a few home runs every now and then.  Olivo hit 14 home runs in 2010, and topped out at 23 in 2009.  Olivo is a career .246 hitter as well, which is not very good.  There is reason to believe he will be worse in 2011 too. 

In 2010 he played in the very hitter-friendly Coors field and hit .318 with 10 of his 14 home runs.  Away from the high altitude he only managed to hit .211 with four home runs in almost as many games.  So, Olivo could really fall off the map as a hitter for the Mariners.  Especially since he hit every home run last year to left field or center.

Another problem with the Olivo deal is that it is for two years even though the Mariners have a young catcher in Adam Moore who does have some potential left despite a bad first year in the majors.  The Mariners are obviously saying that they have no faith in Moore by giving Olivo two years, which is sad because Moore never really got a chance to prove himself.  He was once considered a pretty good prospect with the chance to be a catcher who hit above average for the position at the MLB level.

The only attribute Olivo has that is a plus would be his arm.  Last year he threw out 42 percent of people attempting to steal bases, which is very good.  Olivo will certainly be a better defender than any of the Mariners catchers last season.

To me, both of these deals look bad.  Cust despite being a useful DH over the last few seasons may be on the decline and has a very real possibility to struggle hitting next year because his tendency to hit the ball to left field, and the fact that over the years his home runs have been coming less and less frequently due to a drop in his FB/HR rate.  In fact, Cust is a worse player than former Mariner Russell Branyan, because he should hit fewer home runs, and strike out more. 

Olivo, on the other hand, is a bad move because he is taking the spot of a promising young player, and the fact that he is likely to completely fall off the map with the bat while hitting at Safeco.  Both of these contracts also seem like the type of players that get signed right before spring training traditionally because of their obvious flaws.  However, Jack Zduriencik chose to sign these guys early in the game when better options were still on the market, making me wonder if the Mariners have less money to spend than the reported $16-plus million.  Whatever the reason, it would be wise not to draft either of these guys for your fantasy baseball team.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 Free Agent class for hitters is similar to many Free Agent classes of the past.  It contains many aging sluggers nearing the end of their careers, players coming off outstanding years; or terrible ones, and then the three guys that every team wants to have suit up for them.  Everyone knows the headliners of this years class, the speedy Carl Crawford, the shaggy power threat Jayson Werth, and the talented slugger Adam Dunn.

Today I will be taking a look at where some of the top sluggers available will sign, and what kind of numbers they will put up for their new teams.

One of the best players, Victor Martinez, has already reached a deal with the Detroit Tigers on a four year $50 million deal.  Which as was about eight million dollars less than I expected when I started my draft for this article, however, I was correct in expecting the Tigers to be his new team.

Begin Slideshow

On Nov. 16, the Florida Marlins shocked the baseball world by trading Dan Uggla.  Despite all the rumors that have surrounded Uggla over the years, the Marlins had always neglected to move him.  Until now that is. 

Not only was the trade surprising in and of itself, but the team who the Marlins sent the mighty second baseman Uggla to was a shocker: their National League East rivals, the Atlanta Braves. 

The early consensus around the baseball blogs was that the Marlins got a poor return, that they made a bad choice, and that losing Dan Uggla will hurt them in 2011.  

Its easy to see why losing an offensive force like Dan Uggla would hurt a team.  He is the only second baseman to have hit 30+ home runs four years in a row, and has hit 27 or higher in all five years of his MLB career. 

Uggla, while not a RBI machine, has never put up fewer than 88 in a season, and he topped out at 105 in 2010.  In fact, Uggla had his best season in 2010 when you look at his WAR and triple slash line. 

In 2010 Dan Uggla put up 5.1 WAR (he was worth 5.1 more wins for the Marlins than a “replacement level player”), that 5.1 WAR was actually better than Hanley Ramirez’s 4.4 WAR season. 

Uggla put up a triple slash line of .287/.369/.508, which are all career highs except for when he slugged .514 in 2008.

However, I don’t think the Florida Marlins need Dan Uggla’s bat for the 2011 season.  I even think that the 2011 Marlins will be better without the two time All Star, according to WAR.

In 2011 the Marlins will run out a new fourth hitter on opening day because Uggla took his bat and moved up Interstate 75 to Atlanta; that man will be phenom Mike Stanton. 

In his first 100 MLB games the 6’5″ 233-pound Stanton ripped 22 home runs and doubled 21 times to the tune of a monster .507 slugging percentage (.001 less than Uggla). 

Before that, in double A ball, Stanton hit 21 home runs in only 53 games while slugging .729.  So in 2010, Stanton hit 43 home runs in 153 games over two levels. 

Mike Stanton has power that scouts have been raving about since he was drafted in the second round of the 2007 draft.  Stanton is also heralded as the strongest player in the entire MLB, and the sky is really the limit for this guy.

Stanton is projected by baseball projections guru Bill James to hit 38 jacks in 2011, more than Dan Uggla has ever hit. So, I think Mike Stanton can clearly make up for the presence that Dan Uggla used to provide the lineup.

Now I know that before the trade, Dan Uggla and Mike Stanton were both Marlins, so the fish could have run both mashers out there.  Which, using Bill James’ projections would have produced 69 home runs. 

Yet, I think, by moving Uggla, the Marlins actually will produce more wins, and a similar amount of home runs, than if they had kept him, from the positions affected by the moves. 

By trading Uggla, the Marlins added Omar Infante a solid infielder, and were able to sign slugging catcher John Buck to a three-year contract and add his power bat to the fold. 

So the savings that Florida got from moving Uggla, they smartly used to upgrade another position.

In 2010 Uggla was worth 5.1 WAR (his career high), but in 2010 Buck and Infante combined for 5.6 WAR, even though Buck only appeared in 118 games, and Infante only played in 134. 

It took Uggla 159 games to amass his 5.1 WAR.  So, if Infante appears in 150 games and Buck catches 130, they should easily beat out Uggla in terms of WAR, by a decent margin, which will result in more wins for the Marlins. 

Also Infante and Buck aren’t far off in the power department, as they are only projected to hit seven fewer home runs in 2011 than Uggla.

All in all, the Florida Marlins felt it was safe to trade Uggla. I agree, and think that it was the smart move. 

In 2011, and for his whole future Marlin career, the 2010 “should have been rookie of the year award winner” Mike Stanton will easily produce at levels that can replace Uggla’s bat in the Florida lineup. 

Also, new arrivals John Buck and Omar Infante can produce more WAR, measured in wins, for the 2011 Marlins than fan favorite Dan Uggla would have, while playing better defense and hitting a similar number of long balls.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Florida Marlins traded Dan Uggla on November 16 to their divisional rivals, the Atlanta Braves.  In the trade Atlanta sent over left handed reliever Mike Dunn and the versatile infielder Omar Infante, who had his big breakout season in 2010.  Early on, the trade has been labeled as disappointing return for the Fish.

Many people around baseball were shocked by this deal, Dan Uggla was perceived to have much greater value than a, until 2010, very pedestrian utility man like Infante, and a 26 year old southpaw who has trouble sticking at the major league level despite a fastball that has a career average velocity of 94.3 MPH. 

I assumed before the deal that Florida would take back some highly ranked valuable prospects in a deal for a lifetime .263/.349/.488 second baseman like Uggla. 

No second basemen have hit 30 home runs four years in a row like Dan Uggla, ever.  Dan Uggla is truly a unique offensive force, and one that more than makes up for a mediocre glove.  Despite consistently costing his team runs on the defensive side, Uggla made it to the majors on his bat alone at a primarily defensive position historically. 

So, why would Florida pass up on prospects for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn?

Public relations.  We all know that the Marlins do not have the most avid fan following in the MLB.  Frankly, any prospects they got for Uggla would have been forgotten by the casual Marlins fans by mid season, and they would be saying, “I wish we hadn’t traded Dan Uggla for nothing!” 

Now, the Marlins fans will see Infante in the everyday lineup playing the spot that Uggla vacated.  If Infante can reproduce his 2010 season some fans would even consider it a great trade. 

In 2010, Infante was an All-Star and hit .321/.359/.416, while his slugging was far from Ugglas’, he was still an impact bat especially at second base.  Infante also brings a better glove to the table than Uggla and is more than competent at not only second, but third base and short stop. 

Mike Dunn also will probably stick with the big league club and throw around 40 innings of mostly lefty on lefty duty, thus if he has any success he will be also used to call the Dan Uggla trade a win. With Dunn we probably have seen the last of a bevy of moves to improve what was a bad bullpen in 2010.

By taking the safe move the Marlins showed us that they are clearly looking to make the fans as happy as possible with the ball club before they open their new stadium in 2012.  This trade will pay off for them in the short run by keeping everyone’s mind off Dan Uggla with Omar Infante and Mike Dunn dressing up in the Fish pin stripes for 2011. 

In my opinion, it was a savvy move for a team that is consistently content to let big names leave and play it the safe way.  Also this move is kind of out of character for Florida since this was not the cheapest option available since Minor League players cost nothing and Infante will make about $2.5 million in 2011.

I actually like the move; I wish more teams would follow this model and take proven MLB players over a few decent low level prospects.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun reported recently that the Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos has called the Kansas City Royals to inquire about ace Zack Greinke and former first-rounder Alex Gordon. 

Greinke, one of the majors’ best starting pitchers, and the Kansas City Royals best player, is known to be on the trade block; however the availability of Alex Gordon is unknown.

Greinke is available for a number of reasons, the first being his comments regarding the Royals status as a “rebuilding” team.  When questioned about his thoughts on Kansas City’s top-shelf minor league talent and probability to be a contender by 2013, Greinke said, “There’s no reason for me to get real excited about it, because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim.”

Another reason that Zack Greinke is on the trading block is that his contract is up after the 2012 season so his value is at its highest despite a ‘down year’ on the mound. 

The third reason he is clearly on the trading block is that Royals’ G.M. Dayton Moore has made comments that he is willing to listen to offers on the 2009 Cy Young winner, and asked Greinke to make the list of teams he would decline a trade to (Zack Greinke has a no-trade clause).

In the last two years Zack Greinke has thrown 449.1 innings, won 26 games, and struck out 423 batters with an ERA of 3.14, not to mention he is only 26 years old. 

More impressively, he strikes out 3.99 hitters for every free pass he issues and has thrown nine complete games, three for shutouts. 

His WAR (wins above replacement, which is a metric used to determine the wins that the player creates for their team over a minor leaguer or bench player) is an outstanding 13. 

Which puts him in the company of Roy Halladay (13.9 WAR), CC Sabathia (11.4 WAR), and Cliff Lee (13.7 WAR) over the last two seasons.

Alex Gordon is the owner of a modest .244/.328/.405 line in his three stints in major league ball, and has been positionally abused by the Royals, starting out as a third baseman, then being sent down to the minors to learn first and corner outfield.  Gordon was picked No. 2 overall in 2005, and is 26 years old, just like Greinke. 

The Blue Jays would use Gordon at third base most likely, since their 2010 third baseman was just claimed by the Athletics off waivers.  Despite Gordon’s rather pedestrian line, he is still a solid talent who can improve a lot.

So, what should the Blue Jays offer the Kansas City Royals to bring in the ace and former top draft pick? 

Dayton Moore has said that to consider moving Greinke he would need at least two top 100 prospects and a young major league pitcher.  The Jays have just such top prospects that can be considered “extra.”

If I were the Blue Jays G.M. I would offer Kansas City this package: SP Brandon Morrow, LF Travis Snider and prospects Travis D’Arnaud and Zach Stewart.

Brandon Morrow is a young flame-throwing starting pitcher who opened a lot of eyes last season in Toronto after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners. 

In 2010 Morrow was worth 3.7 WAR, pitched 146.1 innings and struck out an unbelievable 10.95 batters per nine.  His average fastball velocity is 94.6 MPH over his career.  Morrow is 26 years old, just like Greinke and Gordon.

Travis Snider is a young defensively challenged outfielder who, in similar at bats to Gordon, owns a .255/.318/.446 line in the pros.  He is 22 years old, was a first-round pick in 2006, and hit 14 homeruns in 2010 for the Blue Jays. 

The prospects in this deal are both blocked in Toronto by either a better prospect or a surplus at the major league level. 

The first, Travid D’Arnaud is a catcher.  Travis D’Arnaud was acquired from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay trade and is the seventh overall prospect in the Blue Jays system and a member of the top 100 prospects list. 

He is 21 years old and profiles as a steady defender and big stick (he hit 38 doubles and 13 homeruns in high A ball in 2010).  D’Arnaud is blocked by a solid catching duo on the Major league team of Jose Molina and fellow top prospect J.P. Arencibia.

The second prospect is starting pitcher Zach Stewart, who is 24 years old and almost MLB ready.  He is the third overall prospect in the Blue Jays system and is also amongst the top 100 prospects in all of the minor leagues.  He had a 3.63 ERA at double A ball in 2010 and his fastball touches 93 MPH. 

Stewart is blocked by a full rotation at the MLB level, and the top Blue Jay prospect, starting pitcher Kyle Drabek.

Drabek will be the first Blue Jay minor league pitcher to get a shot at the rotation, so Stewart has some waiting to do in Toronto before his time comes.

If Toronto wants to chase an AL East pennant in 2011, they should strongly consider making a strong offer to Kansas City, such as the one I have proposed here that will net them one of the game’s best pitchers. Zack Greinke, and a player they have their eye on, Alex Gordon.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Seattle Mariners had a historically bad season in 2010.  They saw almost every position player on the roster perform at career-worst levels, they scored less runs than they did in a strike-shortened 1994, they fired manager Don Wakamatsu and lost 101 games just one year after winning  85 games. 

The Mariners are in desperate need of a turnaround similar to after the 2008 season in which they had an identical record as they did in 2010 (61-101).  Luckily for us Mariner fans, the oft-criticized club President Chuck Armstrong and his partner in crime CEO Howard Lincoln chose to keep general manager Jack Zduriencik on for 2011. 

Jack Z., as we so fondly call him in the Northwest, was the architect of the 2009 Mariners turnaround, and if Seattle is to do the same in 2011, he will need to make strong moves this offseason, and continue to let his fabulous draft choices mature and approach the start of their MLB careers.

The Seattle Mariners have several holes to fill before 2011 if they are to avoid a third 100-loss season in four years.  The holes include: a starting pitcher (or possibly two), an infielder, a DH (designated hitter) and lastly a fourth outfielder. 

Now the reason I said that the Mariners may need two starters is that top prospect Michael Pineda may or may not be ready to start the 2011 season in the Majors with the big boys.  Already the Seattle Mariners have found their new manager Eric Wedge, and he has assembled his staff.  So, all that is left now is to shape our roster for 2011. 

Unfortunately, GM Jack Z. has only moderate resources to put towards improving for 2011.  They have about $16 million to hand out in contracts (actually a little less because of arbitration raises and a raise to Felix Hernandez), and a few players who they could trade. 

For example look for closer David Aardsma or set-up man Brandon League to be traded, perhaps Jose Lopez or Chone Figgins could be moved as well. In what will be a multi-part series, I will go over the personnel options that the Mariners face and give my opinion on who is the best fit.  Today is infielders.  

The free-agent market for infielders is very weak this year, however, the Mariners do not need an All-Star or even a multi-year fix.  You may be wondering why the Mariners need an infielder at all.  When you look at their current roster, which has Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, Josh Wilson and Matt Tuiasosopo it seems that the infield is full.

The reason that they need an infielder, however, is that the Mariners are expected to move Figgins back to 3B, where he is strong defensively, and release the former 3B Jose Lopez.  Now you might be wondering why the Mariners would release Lopez and that is simply because he is not the type of baseball player that good teams employ.  His failures are well documented; he makes continual mistakes on the base paths, has unreliable power, is perceived as lazy and fails to work counts or draw walks.

So with that in mind let’s look at the criteria for the man who will start at 2B next year in Seattle. 

1. He needs to be cheap.

2. He needs to be able to handle 2B and SS with at least passable defense.

3. He needs to be benchable, for the time when phenom Dustin Ackley is ready to take over at 2B for the M’s.

4. He needs to be willing to sign a one-year deal.

So, with those criteria in place, I can narrow the market down to just a few names.

The first guy that Seattle should look at is Christian Guzman.  Who last year played SS primarily, with some innings at 2B and in RF for the Nationals then the Texas Rangers.  As far as cheapness goes, Guzman will cost little more than $1 million.  He also fits the bill in respects to being able to handle 2B and SS, even if it is only passably. 

In 2010 he posted negative UZR/150 ratings.  UZR/150 is used to judge a player’s defense in terms of runs prevented.  At SS he posted a -5.9 (so in a 150 games he would cost the M’s six runs on D), and at 2B he recorded -5.3 UZR/150. 

In no way are these numbers terrible, but the M’s will likely try and do better.  Guzman is also easily benchable, as he rode the pine for the Nationals and then spent most of his time in Texas on the pine.  Guzman can also be expected to be had for one year.  Last year he hit .266 so he has a little bit of upside with the stick.

The second infield option the M’s will consider is Nick Punto.  Punto has spent his entire MLB career to this point with the Minnesota Twins and the Phillies.  Punto profiles as a completely opposite player to Guzman.  He is a “defense first” type guy.  He posted solid UZR/150, and would profile as a Gold Glove-caliber defender according to this metric. 

At 2B Punto posted a 13.7 (that means he would save almost 14 runs per 150 games) and at SS he was even better.  In 2010 at SS he posted a 22.2 UZR/150.  As far as cheapness and contract length Nick Punto would probably be more expensive than Guzman but still affordable: a one-year player at $4 million-plus.  He doesn’t hit much either, hitting just .238 in 2010 with absolutely no power.

The third serious candidate would be the most costly, and the mostly likely to have multi-year contract offers.  Juan Uribe was a big contributor for the 2010 champion San Francisco Giants.  He brings something to the table that no other free-agent option does: real pop. 

In 2010 Uribe smashed 24 home runs in a park that is similar to Safeco, meaning it is a major pitchers park.  His UZR/150 numbers are solid as well, being a 16.0 defender at 2B and a 3.3 defender at SS.  Uribe will likely cost around $6 million a year, and require two years, but is a significant upgrade. 

He, however, does not fit in with the requirement that he can be easily benched when Ackley arrives.  Though if the M’s went the Uribe route he could just as easily start every game at SS once Jack Wilson goes to the DL, as is inevitable.

In conclusion, I feel that the best infielder fit in Seattle for the 2011 season is Nick Punto.  The only reason I think he is a better fit than Juan Uribe is that ultimately he is more affordable and the M’s have several more pressing needs, such as DH.  However, if the Mariners choose to go with Uribe, who could blame them?  His bat has to appeal to a team with such offensive woes.

Nick Punto does all the small things right, which helps profile him as the type of infielder Jack Z. prefers, just look at Jack Wilson.  When rating the likelihood that one of these guys starts in 2011 for the Mariners it would be Punto, Guzman, then Uribe.  However, when you look at improvement that they would bring to Seattle, Uribe tops the list by a great margin.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Pirates are currently searching for a new manager after losing over a hundred games for the second time since they moved into PNC park in 2001.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are trying to stop a record long playoff drought.  They have not made the playoffs since 1992.  However, this year might be different as they strive for a .500 record and an all too elusive playoff berth.  Lets all face it, they are really bad.  

Recently, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated tweeted that he heard that the Pirates plan to be aggressive in the Free Agent market.  Last year they had the lowest payroll in the Major Leagues, yet Jon Heyman’s tweet seems to indicate that the Pittsburgh Pirates might be planning on adding some payroll to sign some free agents.  How many and who should they go after?

I think that the Pirates could improve 10-20 games next year if they signed 5 Free Agents and made one minor trade.  As well as non-tendering 3 of their current players who are dead weight.  By doing these things they would be looking at an vast improvement on a dreadful 2010 at the very least. Perhaps even building a competitive team to hold the place until their top prospects make the show.

Begin Slideshow

On November 5^th, two days before free agency begins for hundreds of MLB players, bidding for Japanese baseball player Hisashi Iwakuma ended. Hisashi Iwakuma was “posted” by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese baseball league. To those unfamiliar with the posting system, I will give a brief overview of how it works. 

Professional baseball players in Japan who want to jump across the Pacific Ocean and play in the Major Leagues must go through a procedure called being posted. The first step in the process is requesting that their current Japanese team allow them to leave for the States (only when the player is still under contract).

After all of that is squared away, the Japanese ball player will be presented to Bud Selig and all 30 MLB teams. During the next four days, in this case November 2^nd through the 5^th, all of the interested teams will make bids, amounting to tens of millions of dollars.  As with all silent auctions, neither the individual teams nor their Japanese Pro team will know who the highest bidder was. 

Once bidding has ended, the player’s team has a few days to decide if the offer is high enough. And then, if it is, will accept the bid. The record winning bid is over $51 million dollars by the Boston Red Sox to acquire Daisuke Matsuzaka. After the bid is accepted, the Major League Baseball club that bid the highest will negotiate a contract with the player until a deal is reached.

Iwakuma finished the end of last season with 10-9 record and a 2.82 ERA and is one of the top pitchers in Japan behind Yu Darvish. He starred on the 2009 Japanese World Baseball Classic championship team, making hitters with real MLB service time look like fools.

Iwakuma was born in 1981 so he is still relatively young and has a number of good years left in his arm.  In Japanese NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) league play, he has a career record of 101-62 with a 3.32 earned run average. He also sports a career 3.36 K/BB ratio, which is very solid.

It is rumored by mlbtraderumors.com that the Seattle Mariners won the bidding for Iwakuma with a $13 million bid. Seattle would be a logical destination for Hisashi Iwakuma for several reasons.

First off, the Mariners are owned by Nintendo, which as we all know is a Japanese company. Secondly, Seattle has, in the past several years, been home to many Japanese born baseball players such as Ichiro, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Kenji Johjima. Not only have the Mariners had many Japanese ball players suit up with them, but they have acquired one of them through the posting system.

Ichiro was acquired straight from Japan via the posting system, with a winning bid of over $13.1 million. The third reason this would make sense is that Iwakuma has stated his desire to play on the West Coast, and mlbtraderumors.com has stated that neither Los Angeles team made a bid.

However, the Rakuten Golden Eagles still have to accept the bid and the Seattle Mariners would have to work out a contract with Iwakuma before anything is official.  Only the Golden Eagles accepting the bid stands in the way, as it was rumored that they wanted over $15 million dollars for Iwakuma. No matter the case, in the next few days we will know if Hisashi Iwakuma is going to be the newest face on a Seattle team that needs them.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com