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Fantasy Baseball: Second Half Success Stories You Regret Dropping

 

As fantasy owners, we’ve all been burned.  We know what it feels like, and the stages of remorse that comes with it.

First, there’s denial. Denial that the player you coveted on draft day could really be this terrible, and that all your research and preparation was, well, dead wrong.

Then comes anger. Angst at said player for his exceeding levels of sucktitude.  You drafted him early enough where he still gets free passes after a slow start/poor outing, but there’s only so much a self respecting owner can take.

Finally, acceptance.

Ah, who am I kidding? The third stage is only more anger.  Followed by kicking that player to the free agent curb the same way Uncle Phil used to hoist DJ Jazzy Jeff onto his lawn in “Fresh Prince of Bel Aire.”

For those in roto leagues, these pitchers have not only burned a hole in your ERA, but one deep inside the carpals of your heart as well with their astounding rebound performances in the second half.  They’ve been dropped, forgotten about, left for dead, and left you with the open wounds of a team ERA that still hasn’t dipped blow 4.00.

It’s like going through a messy divorce with your wife, losing half your belongings and property in the process, only to find out just months later she’s met a charming Wall Street CEO with a mansion and fountain that spits Courvoisier.

And she’s pregnant.

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No Early Returns: Four Rejuvenated Pitchers You Regret Dropping

As fantasy owners, we’ve all been burned.  We know what it feels like, and the stages of remorse that comes with it.

First, there’s denial. Denial that the player you coveted on draft day could really be this terrible, and that all your research and preparation was, well, dead wrong.

Then comes anger. Angst at said player for his exceeding levels of sucktitude.  You drafted him early enough where he still gets free passes after a slow start/poor outing, but there’s only so much a self respecting owner can take.

Finally, acceptance.

Ah, who am I kidding? The third stage is only more anger.  Followed by kicking that player to the free agent curb the same way Uncle Phil used to hoist DJ Jazzy Jeff onto his lawn in “Fresh Prince of Bel Aire.”

For those in roto leagues, these pitchers have not only burned a hole in your ERA, but one deep inside the carpals of your heart as well with their astounding rebound performances in the second half.  They’ve been dropped, forgotten about, left for dead, and left you with the open wounds of a team ERA that still hasn’t dipped blow 4.00. 

It’s like going through a messy divorce with your wife, losing half your belongings and property in the process, only to find out just months later she’s met a charming Wall Street CEO with a mansion and fountain that spits Courvoisier.

And she’s pregnant.

Wandy Rodriguez:

First Half Stats: 18 G, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .289 BAA

Wince-Inducing Second Half Stats: 8 G, 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .217 BAA

After sporting a minuscule 3.02 ERA in 2009 and outshining ace Roy Oswalt for most of the year, Wand-Rod was being drafted in the same company as Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, and Lucifer himself Josh Beckett (we’ll get to him later). 

These were the can’t miss up-and-comers of 2010.  Well, for the first half of 2010, Rodriguez missed.  Badly.

Most frequently with his curveball, which, incidentally, wasn’t curving.

He was sporting a 3-10 record and a 6.09 ERA by June 18 and had most fantasy owners headed for the hills, while he was handed the first ticket to Dropsville—never to be looked at, let alone considered by those whom he burned ever again.  

And then, somehow, everything clicked.  His ERA has been on a steady decline since June 24, allowing one run or less nine times since then, while compiling an 81:16 K:BB ratio for the suddenly relevant Astros.

Pure evil. 

Max Scherzer

First Half Stats: 16 G, 4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .268 BAA

Gut Wrenching Second Half Stats: 9 G, 1.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .213 BAA

Scherzer had the fantasy world all-a-twitter after a move from spacious Chase Field to Comerica Park, and while his 4.12 ERA wasn’t all that impressive, his 174 Ks were.  2010 would be the year Scherzer catapulted himself into the fantasy elite.

Cue a three week stretch from April 28 to May 14 in which he surrendered six, 10, five, and six runs, respectively, and Scherzer and his bloated 7.29 ERA found themselves down in the minors, with many fantasy owners abandoning ship as well.

“How could this be?” befuddled fantasy owners asked their computer screens.  “He was nearly a surefire lock to bust out this season!”

Well, a dominant two week stint in the minors, followed by a 14 K “re-debut” turned skeptics into believers once again, and three months later, Scherzer’s on pace to break his 172 K mark from a year ago, while brandishing a 3.60 ERA. 

No doubt that three-week stretch did significant damage to the early season hopes of many, and to have Mad Max battle back the way he has may seem heroic to some, but to you, former owner, it’s an epic backstabbing. 

Gavin Floyd

First Half Stats: 18 G, 4.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP .258 BAA

Agonizing Second Half Stats: 8 G, 3.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP .274 BAA

Danks or Floyd, Danks or Floyd? That was the maddening question asked by many owners on draft day over which White Sox starter would separate themselves in 2010.

Those who chose Floyd probably went on to question their everyday decision making skills following a tumultuous first half which saw him flaunt a 6.64 ERA by June 2.

Smart owners knew his peripherals from his ’08 season (when he finished with a 3.84 ERA) were nearly identical to ’09 (4.06 ERA).  Thus, the skills were still there.  It was just a matter of when he would turn it around.

It was probably after you finally gave up on him.

Fast forward three months later, and Floyd’s ERA sits at 3.91 (it was at 3.49 prior to two recent sub-par starts) after an unreal stretch in which he allowed two runs or less in every start from June 8 to August 7.  To add insult to injury, he actually has Danks beat in the strikeout department (135 to 130). 

Oh Gavin, you tease. 

Josh Beckett

First Half Stats: 8 G, 7.29 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .305 BAA

Unworthy of an Extension Second Half Stats:
7 G, 5.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .265 BAA

Small sample sizes, yes, but vomit-inducing nonetheless. 

Beckett was another “can’t miss” starter as one of the anchors of a “perceived” legendary Red Sox rotation.  And while Clay Buchholz and (to a lesser extent) Jon Lester lived up to their billings, the rest have been an unequivocal bust.

That extension he signed back in April?  Laughable.

Four years, $68 million dollars, and a bad back later, the Red Sox have themselves a No. 5 starter. 

Beckett not only burned owners in the first half, but he laughed all the way to the bank, teamed up with Jacoby Ellsbury for the “seemingly short-term injuries that lingered far longer than reasonably expected” club, and rubbed salt in the wound of patient (and presumptively Red Sox die-hards) owners with a second half that’s seen him give up a combined 19 runs in three starts from Aug. 8 to Aug. 19.

In the end, there’s no way the owners who drafted these tormenting Jekyll and Hyde starters could ever forgive them.  It’s best to forget and ignore.  But remember, while burn wounds do heal—they almost always leave a scar.

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From Journeyman To HR Leader: Breaking Down Jose Bautista’s Success

What’s a home run leader gotta do to get noticed around here?

Seriously.  Who is this guy?  And why are we not making a bigger deal out of this?

Bautista, the journeyman of six different MLB franchises, currently leads the majors leagues in home runs with 38 with less than 40 games remaining.

To put that in perspective, MVP front runner Miguel Cabrera, who has single-handedly kept the Tigers in playoff contention, has 31. 

Albert Pujols has 32.

Basically, no one’s even close.

This, without question, has to be the most surprising, out-of-nowhere home run binge since the end of the steroid era. 

Brady Anderson wholeheartedly agrees.

So, what gives?

Bautista’s stock was so low when he got to the majors in 2004 as a Rule fiver, he was swapped five times in a single season from the Orioles, to the Royals, to the Pirates, to the artists formerly known as the Devil Rays, and then back to the Pirates in 2005, playing a total of 75 games in that span, and hitting a grand total of zero round trippers.

He would flounder for three years in Pittsburgh before joining the Blue Jays in 2008. 

The Pirates really can’t catch a break, can they?

He no doubt went undrafted in even the deepest of fantasy leagues in 2010.  That .235 average in ’09 wasn’t winning the hearts of many fantasy owners, despite his modest home run total.  He was a nobody.  Expendable.  A boring player with boring stats and a boring name. 

And then, due in large part to the advice of Jays’ hitting coach Dwyane Murphy, Bautista started starting swinging earlier, pulling the ball with reckless abandon.  The rest, as they say, is history.

Please. If that’s the kind of advice that turns career journeymen into potential 50+ HR hitters, then where do I sign up?

While it’s true Bautista started this power surge last September, when he launched 10 home runs in 125 plate appearances, there isn’t a soul on Earth who could’ve predicted this sort of meteoric rise.  Not Bill James.  Not Matthew Berry.  Not even the nerds over at FanGraphs. 

Lets take a closer look:

Bautista has jacked up his fly ball percentage (53.3 percent from 42.1 percent in 2009), while drastically lowering his ground ball percentage (32.1 percent from 41.3 percent in 2009), giving him a Ruthian HR/FB of 21.2 percent, up from 12.3 percent in 2009. 

Granted, the Rogers Centre has been relatively hitter-friendly (allowing the fourth most HRs in 2010).  But it’s not like he’s doing his damage against shoddy opponents—he’s regularly facing the loaded pitching staffs of the Rays and Yankees, as well as the (perceived to be loaded on paper) staff of the Red Sox. 

The thing about extreme pull hitters like Bautista, is that they are easy defensed—as evidenced by the exaggerated shift someone like David Ortiz gets every time he’s up to bat. 

Also, tight fastballs on the inner part of the plate, as well as breaking pitches low and outside typically mean broken bats and ground outs to second base for those hitters lacking in bat speed (again, as evidenced by Ortiz’s remarkable early season slumps, until he apparently made adjustments). 

So, it would seem elementary to most pitchers and defenses how to get Bautista out.  And three out of four times, they get the job done (Bautista’s paltry .254 average reinforces this fact).

So, it seems pitchers are just making mistakes.  Whether it be a new relief pitcher who hasn’t gotten the whole scouting report, or a starter who loses focus or control just briefly. 

It should also be pointed out that Bautista’s “O-Swing” (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is inordinately high this season, meaning he is chasing pitches, but still managing to pull them for dingers.  A sign of improved bat speed, for sure.

The point of this piece?  Well I began it under the premise that Bautista might be secretly and discreetly juicing, and ended it thoroughly impressed with the adjustments he’s made, while awaiting with bated breath to see if he continues his success into next season. 

Oh, the wonders of statistics.

 

Thanks for FanGraphs for the nerd-tastic information.

 

 

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


How J.D. Drew Can Save the Red Sox Season

Did you know that J.D. Drew is 34 years old?

The former uber-prospect/perennial tease has been tantalizing major league GMs and fantasy owners alike for 12 season now, and only once has he seemingly performed up to the level that was expected of him (a .305, 31 HR, 93 RBI campaign for the Braves in 2004).  

Luckily for Atlanta, they got out while the going was good. 

12 seasons of MLB service, one season of potential attained. 

And yet, despite never playing a full 162 games, eclipsing 100 RBI only once, and typically displaying the amount of energy and enthusiasm similar to most coma patients, Drew continues to reel us in.  

Drew is like a booty call who you text after eight beers and a shot on a Thursday night.

You never really think about her up until that moment, but she’s always available and, amazingly, always horny.  

Since you’re drunk and have nothing better to do, you keep going back to her, over and over. Until she moves away or finally finds a man of substance to make her happy.   

That’s Drew in a nutshell.

A late night booty call.  

Nobody in a Red Sox uniform has been criticized, ridiculed, and heckled to the extent that Drew is.  

He has, sometimes deservingly so, endured the wrath of a disappointed Red Sox fan base for the past three seasons that coincidentally and conflictingly expect grand things from him, but at the same time, expect nothing at all.  

The problem with Drew is, he doesn’t know how to pick his spots.

He’ll mash when it doesn’t matter. A-Rod syndrome pre-2009. He’ll deliver a three-hit performance during a blowout in a mid-May afternoon game, but can typically be found staring at strike three with two outs and runners on the corners in a win-or-go-home divisional series.  

That being said, Drew is still the second highest paid player on a floundering baseball team in desperate need of a spark.  

And ironically enough, he holds the key to the Red Sox success in 2010. 

No longer can Drew sit in background and play second or third fiddle to Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, or even Jason Bay.  

Bay and Manny have skipped town, and Papi would have trouble catching up to a Little League fastball at this point. 

That leaves Drew as one of the only real power sources on a team being sapped of its power by a GM who’s building his team around a flavor-of-the-week “defense first” philosophy that values UZR over the ability to competently put the bat on the ball. 

Excluding the decomposing shell of David Ortiz, the fact remains the Drew trails only Adrian Beltre as the current team leader for career home runs.  

And with nearly all the pundits seemingly locking in the Rays and Yankees as 1 and 1a atop the AL East, it’s clear the Sox will need Drew to produce to the level of his current contract (in other words, ways never conceived possible before) in order for his team to remain competitive. 

Maybe at age 34, lightning could strike twice.

 

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