Kuzul

As the 2010 regular season enters its final week, there is some drama left in the pennant races, but lots of drama and intrigue remaining in the battle for various individual statistical titles, and the more prestigious awards that players covet.

In the AL, we have known which four teams would qualify for the playoffs for many weeks,but how who will win the AL East battle between the Yankees and Rays?  The Twins also are battling for  best record in the league.

On the individual race front, will anybody join CC Sabathia as a 20-game winner?  There are some close races (most wins, and most runs scored), and some runaways (homers and stolen bases)..

In the NL—while it’s always foolish to ever count out those streaky Rockies–there appear to be five teams playing for four spots.  The Phillies have all but sewn up the East, and will soon lock down the best record in the league.  The Reds have the Central, and the Giants and Padres are too close to call in the West.  The Braves will battle the runner-up in the Giants-Padres tussle for the wild-card entry.

Among NL hitters, batting average and stolen base titles are foregone conclusions, but intrigue remains in several categories, including RBI and runs scored.  Among pitchers, most wins and most saves has not yet been determined.

While baseball is a team sport, it also features a host of individual matchups and stats that greatly define the game. 

Join me on this tour of some of those individual battles, and see my unofficial Top  or so in the MVP and Cy Young Award races for both leagues.

** Please note that all stats were compiled prior to the games of Monday, September 27.**

Begin Slideshow

Well, Gee, nothing really lasts forever, does it?

The Phillies, playing before their 122^nd straight sellout crowd at Citizens Bank Park, saw their 11-game winning streak come to an end, losing 5-2 to the New York Mets. The Mets were led by rookie pitcher Dillon Gee and rookie leftfielder Lucas Duda.  Who?

Gee, you never heard of Dillon?  The rookie pitcher was making only the fourth start of his career, and the Phillies jumped on him immediately.  With two outs in the bottom of the first, Chase Utley singled to left center, which was followed by a home run blast from Ryan Howard, his 31^st of the season to put the Philies up, 2-0.

After Howard’s shot, the game settled into an unexpected pitcher’s duel, as Phils starter Kyle Kendrick (now 10-10) cruised through the first six innings. Kendrick, looking very sharp, yielded only three singles, while striking out four (with no walks) through the first two-thirds of the game. 

Meanwhile, the Phils could not do anything else against Gee (now 2-1) and some of the electricity seemed to have left Citizens Bank for the first time in many home games.

Entering the top of the seventh with that 2-0 lead, the good fortune that has aided and abetted their 11-game win streak vanished into the warm September night air.  After a Beltran single, David Wright topped a ball to the third base side of the mound that Kendrick pounced on and threw a strike to the second base bag.  Shortstop Wilson Valdez flashed like an NFL cornerback in front of Utley, who was expecting the throw.  They only got the force out on the play.

With a man on first and one out, Ike Davis singled just out of Utley’s reach to bring Angel Pagan to the plate.  Pagan hit a bouncer that Ryan Howard booted to load the bases.  Another Mets no-name named Josh Thole singled in a run to cut the lead to 2-1, and Kendrick hit the showers in favor of Chad Durbin.

The Durbinator came into the one-out bases-loaded jam, and may have breathed a sigh of relief to see someone named Lucas Duda—who came in hitting .170, but with six of his nine career hits going for extra bases.  Advantage Duda, who ripped a Durbin meatball into left center, knocking in three runs. 

The lumbering Duda was replaced by a pinch-runner, but probably would have scored himself on a double by Jose Reyes.  Just like that it was 5-2, Mets.

On many other nights during the Phillies’ ridiculous hot streak, a three-run deficit with three innings and nine tough outs left would be almost easy to overcome.  This was not one of those nights, as no breaks came their way.

In the bottom of the seventh, pinch-hitter Domonic Brown—seeing his first action since Sept. 8—followed a two-out double by Wilson Valdez with a shot down the right field line.  On another night, the ball would have left the yard, pulled the Phils to within one-run, and getting the place jumping again.  On this night, the ball hooked foul, and Gee struck him out on the next pitch.

In the bottom of the eighth, Utley hit one up the middle that bounced off reliever Pedro Feliciano. On this night, it ricocheted right to Wright (Mets third baseman David Wright) who completed the rare 1-5-3 ground out.

The Mets went deeper into their bullpen in the bottom of the ninth, and after a leadoff walk to Howard, the Phils never threatened again.  As soon as you could say Hisanori Takahashi, the game and the amazing September winning streak was over.

Well, nothing lasts forever, and, Gee, sometimes you even get beaten by some anonymous Duda named Lucas.

Gold Notes

• The Phils magic number to win the NL East remained at two as the Atlanta Braves shut-out the Washington Nationals, 5-0. 
• The Colorado Rockies led by their amazing duo of Car-Go (Carlos Gonzalez) and Tulo (Troy Tulowitski) rallied to beat the Giants, 10-9, in 10 innings.  Coupled with the San Diego Padres win over the Reds, the Giants now trail the Padres by a half-game with the Rockies hanging in, but still four games back.
• The Phillies play their last regular season home game tomorrow with a Sunday matinee finale versus the Mets.  On paper, it should be a “Misch-match” with the scorching Cole Hamels (12-10, 2.93) facing Pat Misch (0-4, 4.44, with a career record of 3-15, 4.74).  If the Phils win and the Braves lose, the Fightins can clinch the division at home again.
• Many dudes—thousands and thousands—have played in the major leagues, but Lucas is the first “Duda” to have done so, according to www.baseball-reference.com.  You don’t get this information just anywhere, folks.
• And speaking of names, Dillon Gee was the first Gee to play in the bigs since a 6’9” left-handed pitcher named John Alexander “Whiz” Gee last toed the rubber in 1946 for the New York Giants.  Gee, Whiz, I swear I did not make that one up.  Feel free to check!

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At the risk of being the master of the obvious, the Philadelphia Phillies are red hot right now. 

They’ve won 17 of 20 games in September, and boast a current 10 game winning streak.  The next hottest team in the NL—now that the Colorado Rockies have re-entered Planet Earth—is the Chicago Cubs, who are a tepid 7-3.

So, what does this all mean?  Their brilliant play the last, especially, 58 games (43-15 since July 20) has put them in great shape down the stretch.  Which begs the question: Now that they only have to win four out of nine games (and perhaps, not even that many to clinch home field advantage throughout the postseason) do they keep “gunning it” or think about resting some of their stalwarts?

With their sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the Phils (92-61) are not only six games ahead of the Braves, but they are also six games ahead of all of the other contenders for possible  home field advantage in the NL—the Giants, Reds and Padres (as well as the Braves) each have 67 losses.

Even in the unlikely event that one of these teams wins out, the Phillies—with just four more wins—clinch the best record in the National League. With the way they are playing, one would think that they will do this within their next two series—three at home versus the Mets starting tonight, followed by three at Washington.  That huge series in Atlanta to end the regular season would project to only be huge for the Braves’ wild card hopes.

So, now what? In a season that has seen most of their regulars spend time on the Disabled List, assuming that they clinch home field advantage with 3-5 games left to play, what do they do?

Option A:  Why change a winning formula just before heading into the playoffs?  Indeed, if the Phils win 8 out of 9, they can win 100 games this year.  But that’s kind of a “nice-to-have” milestone, and not a necessity.  The main reason to keep their feet on the gas is to avoid any letdowns or bad habits going into the postseason.  Remember that the NLCS is only a best of 5, before the best of 7 format comes into play.

With the H2O of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt  almost unhittable these days, and our heart of the order (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth) looking like themselves again, the Phils are very tough to beat  and it’s been a thing of beauty to regard.  It’s especially beautiful to watch the Fightins when they aren’t committing the kind of base running and field gaffes that sometimes plagued their 2010 campaign.

This school of thought would say that you keep this lineup burning on all cylinders, and don’t worry about playing the Dobbs, Franciscos, Mayberrys and Browns.  Don’t mess with success!

Option B:  Skipper Charlie Manuel—assuming the Phils fulfill their magic number of four with a handful of games left on the schedule—should look to rest certain players.  Even more so in a season that has seen all those players wind up on the DL.  

One has to wonder if Utley and Howard—who are looking better these days, but may not be 100% healthy—can benefit from being spelled for a game or two.  Another reason to take this approach is to keep the bench sharp.  Players like Ross Gload, Brian Schneider, Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown may not start in the playoffs (well, they won’t unless there’s an injury or two), but they may be called upon as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement.

Another guy to keep an eye on is the ace, the seemingly indefatigable Roy Halladay. Doc has pitched 241.2 innings this year, a big workload that has him leading the NL, and tied for first (with the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez) in the majors.  Superb as he is, he has looked just a little tired of late, and not quite up to his considerable standards his last several starts  Halladay has yielded either three or four earned runs in each of his last six starts, and has only exceeded seven innings in one of his last seven. 

Conclusion:  Over the last few years, Manuel has always seemed to push the right buttons for his team; he simply has a great handle on his players.  I would look for guys like Utley and Howard to get a day off or two, and while Doc may take the ball as expected two more times, Manuel won’t be afraid to use his bullpen a little sooner in his starts. Gload, Schneider, Francisco and Brown should all get some at-bats down the stretch.

Sometimes personal milestones and possible awards play a factor in this, and while I don’t think that this is a priority for Manuel, he is somewhat of a player’s manager.  More on this below.

Gold Notes:  Halladay (20-10, 2.53) appears to be in a three-man race for the NL Cy Young Award, along with the Cards’ Adam Wainwright (19-7, 2.45) and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies (19-7, 3.00).  If I had a ballot, they would be my top three—in that order.  More analysis of the race for various awards will follow the regular season.

Halladay, Oswalt (2.80) and Hamels (2.93) are three of only 12 NL starters with ERAs under 3.00.  For most of the season, the Cardinals (with Wainwright, Jaime Garcia (2.70) and Chris Carpenter (now at 3.20) had this distinction.

With 11 more strikeouts in his next two starts, Oswalt will join Halladay and Hamels as members of the 200 “K” club.  The longtime Astros ace has done so twice before, the last time in 2004.

That RBI machine named Ryan Howard does not seem to have a reasonable shot at claiming another RBI crown.  At 104 ribbies, he trails Carlos Gonzalez (113), Albert Pujols (112) and Joey Votto (106). Going into 2010, “The Big Piece” had led the league in this department the last two years, and three times in his four full seasons.

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Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez powered a red-hot offense and Roy Halladay gutted it out for seven tough innings as the Phillies defeated the Braves 5-3 before a raucous Citizens Bank Park crowd.

The (what-else?) sellout crowd of rabid towel-waving rowdies saw Halladay notch his 20th victory, as the hometown Phils took a decisive five-game lead over the second-place Braves with just 10 games left to play.

Playing in an electric atmosphere that felt like October (playoff) baseball, the fans certainly got their money’s worth.

Facing young southpaw Mike Minor–who would throw a ponderous 71 pitches over just 2.1 innings–the Phillies squandered chances in the first two innings before Placido Polanco and Chase Utley led off the third with back-to-back hits.  Ryan Howard drove a sinking liner to rightfield that Braves rookie phenom Jason Heyward just pulled out of the lights at the last moment.

As analyst Chris Wheeler was telling Comcast viewers that Polanco should have held second base and tagged up, Jayson Werth stepped up and rendered his point moot.  Werth blasted a Minor fastball (or was it a minor fastball?) well over the 374-foot sign in left center.  Just like that, the Fightins took a 3-0 lead that they would never relinquish.

The Braves would get one back in the top of the 5th on an unusual play. With no outs and runners on first and second, pinch hitter Eric Hinske bounced a ball to Utley who threw to shortstop Wilson Valdez for what looked like a 4-6-3 double play.  It wasn’t to be.  Rick Ankiel came barreling into second base (or in that general vicinity) to blow up the play, forcing an errant throw from Valdez that allowed Alex Gonzalez to score. 

Halladay clamped down to allow the Braves no more runs until the sixth, when Derek Lee’s sacrifice fly plated Martin Prado.  Centerfielder Shane Victorino prevented what could have been a big inning by gunning Brain McCann out at third on the play.

The bottom of the sixth belonged to Fightins leftfielder Raul Ibanez, who smoked a 2-2 pitch down the rightfield line to drive in Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.  Ibanez, who earlier doubled down the leftfield line, might never have had that chance if home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg had punched him out on a 1-2 offering that seemed to pass through the strike zone.  But it’s the little things that sometimes win games, and the insurance runs provided by Ibanez would stand up to be the margin of victory.

Halladay, looking a little tired and also getting no help from Kellogg on the corners,  yielded three hits and two walks in his seven innings. The Phils ace only struck out three, but the effort—backed by solid relief stints from Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge in the eight and ninth—was good enough to garner his 20th victory. To Halladay’s credit, he was, as always, bulldog tough and two of those three strikeouts were of the much needed inning-ending variety.

It should be noted that the seventh and final hit given up by the Phils ace was a lonnnnng shot to right center by Braves rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman.  It may still be going, but it was one of very few Braves highlights tonight.

Tape measure blasts notwithstanding, the Braves will leave Philly tomorrow night trailing the scorching Phils by either four or six games with nine games left to play. With Roy Oswalt—-the third member of H20—- toeing the rubber, one would be surprised if it won’t be a six-game deficit.

For more on the origins of H20, please see: 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/459880-roy-squared-and-cole-and-who-takes-the-ball-pondering-the-phillies-rotation

GOLD NOTES:

Halladay became the Phillies first 20-game winner since Steve “Lefty” Carlton won 23 in 1982.  “Hard to believe, Harry.”

He’s not the Lights-out Lidge of 2008, but Brad Lidge has been pretty good this year.  While his walks are a little high (20 in 41.2 innings), he has saved 25 of his 30 opportunities with a 3.24 ERA.

Why wasn’t Rick Ankiel called out for being well out of the baseline on that takeout slide of Wilson Valdez in the fifth that resulted in the Braves first run?  He was not even close to making contact with any part of the bag.  Surprisingly, Manuel did not protest the non-call.

Wow, the Braves have some fine young talent.  Freedie Freeman, who just turned 21, enjoyed his first-ever MLB homer of of Halladay, and it was a monster blast.  We all know about Jason Heyward, also just 21, who can do it all.  And, would you believe that the Braves threw four pitchers tonight—all 25 or younger—who each average more than a strikeout per inning.  Unreal!

The Phillies are now 30 games over .500 at 91-61 and riding a nine-game winning streak. They are also a remarkable 43-15 since July 20.  And they have done much of this without star shortstop and team leader Jimmy Rollins.

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SPORTS IRREVERENCE AND MORE FROM THE OTHER TIP OF THE GOLDBERG

WAR: What’s it good for:  absolutely nothing?

Confession #1:   This was going to be a “power ranking” (Bleacher Report-style) of the AL Cy Young candidates, sparked in part by a discussion I had yesterday with a (fellow featured) columnist; he writes for the Mariners, and I write for the Phillies.  That companion piece of sorts is forthcoming.

Confession #2:  I love almost every sport, and get especially geeked up on baseball.  I respect Bill James and his disciples–and even some of his educated detractors.  But sometimes, I just hit my limit when stats are just parroted without any regard to common sense.  Please read on.

So…what was going to be an article about the AL Cy Young Award race somehow generated this column.  This column was inspired (just now) by an hour or two spent studying all of the relevant stats, and then spending a little more time on something called WAR.

You may already know that WAR means “Wins Above Replacement.”  It was designed, I learned, by Sean Smith of baseballprojection.com who wanted to create a single number that represents the number of wins that a player (pitcher or position player) has added to his team.

Now, it is, admittedly, a pretty cool thing when somebody can create a system that reduces our research, or maybe our shopping, time.  We all benefit from people’s brainstorms multiple times every single time we turn on our GPS or get travel fares from “expedia”–pardon the plug. Even a mini technophobe like me.

But what I can’t handle is the slavish devotion by some (I’m not picking on my new friend from Seattle by the way) to stats that they probably could not figure out if you locked them in a library for a week.

How many times are passer ratings quoted mindlessly by TV analysts and sports radio jocks as if they are the end-all and be-all of ranking quarterbacks?

How do you like the computer rankings that feed into the BCS system in college football?  Do you find yourself quoting the RPI index every March heading into the field of 64, or 65, or whatever mad number has taken over NCAA college hoops?  And then, do you find yourself feeling like you really knew went into that index?

My suspicion is that, if you’re like me, you throw around those BCS rankings and RPIs when and only when they serve your alma mater or favorite team.  Otherwise, they’re a bunch of hooey.

Well, I won’t call mathematicians who are smarter than me, or baseball fans who are more comfortable with these numbers, delusional or manufacturers of hooey   They mean well, and in some cases, do the research that would be impossible for us to do.

My point is this.  There are many Web sites that provide plenty of traditional numbers available for our use.  Most fans have some sense of players around the league.  Judgment calls have to be made all of the time, and there is no single stat that can do all that work for us!!

The 2010 AL Cy Young race is especially interesting, as most people’s top two candidates—CC Sabathia of the Yankees and Feliz Hernandez of the Mariners—are also 1 and 2 in WAR.  (Hernandez is currently tied with Jared Weaver at 5.3, just behind Sabathia’s 5.4.)  Not too bad.  It seems as if I can even learn to be a WAR-monger.

Down the list, WAR gets a little troublesome for me.  WAR informs me that the A’s Trevor Cahill (16-7, 2.84, with a 1.075 WHIP) is worth less to his team than either John Danks of the White Sox (13-11, 3.80, 1.216 WHIP) or Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles (10-14, 3.92, 1.195 WHIP).  Cahill is ranked 14^th, behind Danks (11th) and Guthrie (12th).

Is WAR a great super-stat, or does its usage indicate that baseball is being analyzed by a parallel universe?  Oh yeah, WHIP (which is just one of many more traditional stats for pitchers) means walks plus hits per innings pitched. One can even calculate this easily on a dollar store calculator.

Not enough evidence to go to war on WAR?  Okay, if you were using WAR to analyze NL MVP candidates, you may find your own top five or so not too different from what happens in the “WAR” room.

The Top Five War-friendly NL position players, in order, are:  Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff and Troy Tulowitski.  Huff’s having a nice year, but a little high at #4, but that’s not too bad.  Perhaps, you were looking for emerging superstar Carlos Gonzalez, who is leading the league in batting average and tied for first in RBI and runs, and 4^th in homers?  He’s #12, four places behind Angel Pagan, a decent player, but his .294/10/67 with 75 runs scored and an OPS of .778 is pedestrian.

Were you looking for Ryan Howard?  He’s ranked #52 in WAR, behind well, 51 other position players, some of whom are named Michael Bourn (15), Jamey Carroll (45) and Jeff Keppinger (48.)  No comment…that lunacy should speak for itself!

ALL I AM SAYING IS GIVE COMMON SENSE A CHANCE

The idea of a single stat is not a bad one, and at times it seems to get us close to the pin, but I am appealing to even the quasi-stat geeks not to quote WAR to me when making an analysis.  In fact, don’t quote me any number that you could not quote me the mathematical formula for,  be it RPI, BCS or passer rating (and it is passer rating, and not quarterback rating.)

If you do insist on going to WAR as your source, I’m going to ask you why a little known Indian(s)—(by way of South Korea)—right fielder named Shin-Soo Choo is ranked #2 in the AL in WAR while putting up these numbers:  .285/20/82 with 74 runs.  Of course, I didn’t realize that he was worth more than MVP candidates such as Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano.

Need more ammo against WAR?  BJ Upton (23) is having just as good or better a year than Mark Teixeira (24). 

Oh, I get it:  the WAR room computers respect the fact that BJ went to war against his own teammates (especially Evan Longoria, ranked #1) earlier this year.

Okay, time for me to chill out.  I’ll go back to my peaceful ways once I declare my war on WAR to be over.

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If they’re not playing for all the marbles the next few days at Citizens Bank Park, they’re playing for a lot of them.

The host Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves, owners of the best two records in the National League, open a three-game series tonight with the Phillies leading the Braves by three games.

The two teams will meet again in Atlanta October 1-3 to close the regular season after playing two series apiece against their other divisional rivals.

One has to think that the Phillies—barring a sweep at the hands of their Southern rivals—are in the driver’s seat for the NL East crown and an easier path (on paper) through the playoffs.

Taking two out of three will put them in great shape, and a sweep of the Braves will make the division theirs for sure, barring anything 1964-like. I’m not looking up to the heavens as I write this.

While both teams covet the division, the NL math says the following. With the Reds in great shape in the Central and the Cards unable to get going, five teams will be playing for three available playoff spots. In other words, any two of the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Padres, and Rockies will not make the playoffs. With a 2.5-game lead in the wild card, the Braves are in pretty good shape for that consolation prize.

So, how did the two teams get here, and what’s likely to occur at CBP the next few days?

The Braves, with extra motivation to give skipper Bobby Cox a memorable final season, have played inspired ball all year, even when faced with a bit of adversity.

Chipper Jones, their most recognizable player and one of the best players in baseball the last 15 years, has struggled through an injury-marred campaign in what may be the last season of his Cooperstown-worthy career. The former MVP has been on the shelf since August 11, freezing his decidedly non-chipper stats: .265/10/46.

No. 2 pitcher Derek Lowe has struggled with a 14-12 record and 4.12 ERA, while their other veteran, ace Tim Hudson, has had a fine season (16-8 with a 2.61 ERA).

It may be to the Phillies’ advantage that neither Lowe nor Hudson, having started the Braves’ last two wins at Citi Field, will not face the Phils this week.

Offensively, the Chipper-less Braves don’t really scare you, yet they have managed to score only 13 fewer runs than the mighty Phillies this year, a negligible difference over the course of 150 games. Their two most recognizable names remaining in the lineup have had solid years.

Jason (the J-Hey Kid) Heyward, who just turned 21, will finish his rookie season with close to 20 homers, 80 RBI, and 90 runs while drawing a lot of walks, as well as his first All-Star appearance.

Catcher Brian McCann, already a five-time All-Star at age 26, is a solid receiver who leads the Braves in both homers and RBI.

As you wonder who else would start for the Phillies among Braves regulars (and McCann and Heyward would be close calls over Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth), you may consider two other All-Stars: Omar (“Thanks for picking me, Cholly”) Infante, a glorified utility infielder who is hitting .337, and Martin Prado, a second baseman by trade who has manned Jones’ hot corner while again hitting over .300 and is in the process of scoring over 100 runs. But would you take those two over Chase Utley and Placido Polanco?

First baseman Derrek Lee came over at the trade deadline from the Cubs, and the veteran still plays a good first base and provides occasional pop—including a towering grand slam yesterday at Citi Field. Other than that, the lineup does not seem to do a whole lot, yet the Braves manage to score about as many runs as the Phils (and good for fourth in the NL). Just like the Phillies, they attack you until the third out of the ninth, and beyond if needed.

Manning the hill against the Phillies will be the hard to spell and usually hard to hit Jair Jurrjens, who missed 10 or 11 starts this season and has not yet matched his 2009 form of 14-10/2.64. Just 24, this guy is really good—when on.

Two other young pitchers, Tommy Hanson (23) and Mike (“I’m almost a”) Minor, 22, will get the ball in games two and three. Hanson has followed up a stellar rookie season with pretty good stats, including a 3.62 ERA, but has only a 10-11 record to show for it. Minor has shown lots of promise but is also saddled with a 5.84 ERA in his seven starts.

Bullpen, you ask? Our old friend, the sometimes combustible Billy Wagner, has been typically puzzling. The seven-time All-Star is 7-2 with a terrific 1.43 ERA and a microscopic 0.83 WHIP. He has saved 35 games yet has also blown seven. With all his faults, one would presumably trade the erratic post-2008 Brad Lidge for him unless one values clubhouse chemistry.

The Phillies, two-time defending league champions, find themselves once again as the team to beat in the National League. How they got here is also a tribute to their manager, Charlie Manuel, every bit as much as the 2010 Braves are a testament to Bobby Cox.

It seems like just yesterday that this columnist (one can be more of a “homer” on Bleacher Report) was praying for the Phillies to somehow get lucky enough to land a wild card spot and to have a relatively healthy team once they got there.

Witness that Wilson Valdez has played in more games this year (100) than team leader Jimmy Rollins (82) and has a higher batting average. Superstars Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have suffered stints on the DL, and the injury bug has probably hit the Phillies as hard as any team this year not playing in Fenway Park.

In a 2010 campaign that has seen the Phillies battered and bruised and sometimes sleepwalking, they somehow appear to be the class of the NL once again. The biggest reason? A three-headed monster (which I have nicknamed H2O) at the top of their pitching rotation, consisting of Cy Young Award front runner Roy Halladay, the improved, battle-tested Cole Hamels, and longtime Astros ace Roy Oswalt. All have been amazing since Oswalt gratefully accepted his get-out-of-mediocrity pass from Houston.

H2O is scheduled to start the three games of this showdown, and in that order. While it bodes well for the Phillies, one would be foolish to count out the Braves, and it would behoove all Phillies fans and baseball fans in general to watch all nine innings and prepare to watch an extra-inning game or two.

Knowing a sweep would virtually lock up the NL East for the hometown Fightins, the prediction here is that the Braves will find a way to win one of the games. If this holds true, the Phillies will extend their division lead to four, and the Braves will still be on top of the wild-card hunt.

In other words, the Phillies and Braves may very well face each other again even after October 3, and for even bigger marbles than this series offers.

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APPRECIATING RAUL

Raul Javier Ibanez won’t draw any NL MVP votes this year, and he may not even be in the top five of the Phillies’ team MVP vote, but the Phils’ left fielder should be commended for his 2010 season.

His numbers, at first glance, are not extraordinary. In fact, they’re rather pedestrian. Okay, bad idea…on to the next story.

But wait—there’s more.

It’s easy to look up stat lines these days, and here are the numbers for Raul: .266 BA, 14 homers, 72 RBI, and 66 runs scored. With 15 games left to play, Ibanez will end up somewhere in the neighborhood of .270, 16 HR, 80 RBI, and 75 runs scored. These are numbers that you can more than live with for your No. 6 hitter. More on that later.

Doesn’t it seem like Ibanez has been here much longer than (almost) two years? In this brief amount of time, most Phillies fans have probably gone through an evolution of thought similar to this.

1. QUESTIONING RAUL

When Pat Gillick acquired Ibanez from Seattle, many wondered why we were parting ways with Pat Burrell, who became (somewhat inexplicably to me) a great hero in this town.

Baseball fans (perhaps even bigger MLB fans than this columnist) knew that Ibanez was a late bloomer who did not get a chance to be an everyday player till he hit age 30 and the Royals made him a regular. It paid off for them: In each of his two seasons in KC, he hit a solid .294. In 2002, he smashed 24 homers and knocked in 93; the following year, his power numbers dropped a little, but he scored 95 runs.

Seattle reclaimed him in 2004, and he gave them five very solid seasons. Although he toiled in a pitcher’s park, Ibanez averaged .293 with 23 HR, 98 RBI, and 86 runs.

On the other hand, late bloomer or not, he was about to turn 37, and could he keep it going for all three years on his contract? And what about that right-handed bat (and his bulldog) we let leave for Tampa?

2. LOVING RAUL

Think back to the start, even the first half, of the 2009 season. It didn’t hurt that Ibanez was arguably the Phillies’ best player—this on a team with perennial All-Stars Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins and an emerging star in Jayson Werth. He was that good, and a season approaching .320/40/120 did not look out of reach.

It did not hurt that Ibanez had that great first name, and it soon became commonplace to see Phillies fans wearing No. 29s, along with all of the 6s, 26s, and 11s (and for a brief moment later in that season, some 34s.)

That great Ra-uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul chant soon filled the air at Citizens Bank Park.

It also did not hurt that Ibanez was/is the ultimate good guy, a consummate professional, and he fit right in with his defending world champion teammates. Oh yeah, and Cholly could leave him in left field in late innings and not have to fluster himself with those pesky double switches.

3. CHEATING RAUL?

An unfortunate byproduct of this PED era of baseball (not completely over) is that players face allegations when they: a) overperform (for their age), b) underperform, or c) start to suffer through injuries. All three of those red flags attached themselves to Ibanez’ numbers.

Raul could not keep up that amazing pace after the 2009 All-Star break, and there were whispers involving the “S” word.  There were sloppy reports and a lot of innuendo, and some Phils fans couldn’t deal with the uncertainty.

I don’t care to dignify those rumors, but it had some effect on how Ibanez—still new to Philly baseball—was perceived by many. Despite a second-half drop-off, Ibanez finished 2009 at .272/34/93, with 93 runs scored in only 134 games. His .899 OPS was a career high, and he had a good postseason with two homers and 13 ribbies in 15 games.

4. EATING RAUL (or his contract, anyway)

The start of this season saw Raul mired in that slump, and by the end of June (almost halfway through the campaign), Raul was hitting a low .220 with an anemic six homers and 36 RBI.

The numbers most discussed were his age (he turned 38 on June 2) and his contract (he is making over $12 million this year and is due $11.5 mil in 2011).

To say Raul has not had an easy 2010 is an understatement, and with a most promising corner outfielder named Domonic Brown tearing it up in the minors, the Ra-uuuuuuuuuuuuuuls were being replaced with Boooooooooooos, and Phils fans were wondering:

“What can Brown do for us?”

6. APPRECIATING RAUL—once again

Domonic Brown has all the makings of a five-tool player and may become our Jason Heyward (or maybe our left-handed Jayson Werth.) One has to love his promise.

But right now, how many Phils fans want to yank Ibanez from the lineup?

In 56 games since the All-Star break, he has raised his batting average from a paltry to .246 to a respectable .266. He has hit seven homers and driven in 33 in that same span to get his numbers somewhat in range with his career averages.

More importantly, in a season where we have struggled to keep our mega-stars (Howard, Utley, and especially Rollins) on the field, and where the injury bug has also hit Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, and Carlos Ruiz, Ibanez has played in 141 of our 147 games, second to Werth on the team.

Most importantly, he guts it out through injuries and is solid fundamentally. He continues to be the ultimate good guy, a consummate professional, and still (at age 38) a hitter that can occasionally ride one out of the park and drive in some key runs.

So let’s hear it one more time for Mr. Ibanez:

RA-uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuullllllllll.

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Sports Irreverence and More from The Other Tip of the Goldberg

Maybe it’s because of the rain that fell this morning—I haven’t seen any rain for about eight years, and it has me a little confused.

The rain also washed away my pickup softball game this morning, giving me a little more time on my hands to think about the pressing issues of the day.

The economy?  Nah, nothing I can do about that; it’s way above my pay grade—which is a problem in and of itself, of course.

The Eagles home/season opener against Green Bay, and the Washington McNabbs hosting Big D? Still too many hours away. 

Memo to Phillies Fans:   We’re in a real pennant race here—only 19 games left to play, and we’re deadlocked with the Braves for first in the NL East and only two games ahead of the Giants for baseball’s consolation prize.  We have three world-class starting pitchers, and then two question marks—a heavy one that gets shelled in the first inning (Joe Blanton) and a skinny one (Kyle Kendrick) that looks like Greg Maddux occasionally and Mike Maddux more regularly.

I’m reminded of that old saying coined in the late 1940’s for the Boston Braves who had two top hurlers in Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain, and then, as legend has it, used Blanton and Kendrick as their third and fourth starters. Someone, please check their birth certificates.

Spahn and Sain, and Pray for Rain went the refrain, and in the days of four-man (and sometimes three-man) pitching rotations, it was not that much of a stretch for Braves fans to wish for that.

Fast-forward, kind of, to the 1964 Phillies.  Now, I was a bit too young to have experienced this, but it’s hard-wired (with pessimism and jaded cynicism) into my Philly Sports Fan DNA.  As many (even) older Phils fans can tell you the Fightins—long the doormats of the National League—were having a dream season, featuring Jim Bunning’s perfecto, a great season from co-ace Chris Short, an exciting rookie in Richie (“I became Dick later”) Allen and great play from right fielder Johnny Callison.

They found themselves, improbably, 6 ½ games in front of the Reds with only 12 games left to play.  Fans were lining up for World Season tickets—the first Fall Classic to hit Shibe Park/Connie Mark Stadium since 1950, when…

…Manager Gene Mauch remembered that Spahn/Sain ditty and also remembered that he was not enamored of any starting pitchers not named Bunning or Short.  Chaining “Blanton and Kendrick” to the bench, the Little General overused Bunning and Short, and presto—the Phils managed to lose 10 straight games, the first seven of them played before the forgiving Philly faithful.  No pennant; just an all-time collapse: the Philly Phold, Mauch’s Meltdown…

Bunning and Short And Make A Mockery of the Sport???

So, what to do about 2010?  In case you didn’t know, the Phillies—counting today, and assuming they’ll play through the rain—have 19 big games left in their next 22 days.  The next three Thursdays are off.  6 of those remaining 19 games are huge showdowns versus those Atlanta Braves.

Does Charlie Manuel—with three scheduled days off—go with a four-man rotation and choose Blanton or Kendrick to be the odd-man out? Does he get greedy and jettison both Blanton and Kendrick, and stay with his three-headed monster of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels?

And as a longtime Phils fan, I must ask:  Does Uncle Cholly channel his inner Mauch and go with Halladay and his pick of either Hamels or Oswalt (coin flip or arm wrestling) in a two-man rotation—an homage to those beloved ’64 near-champions. It says here that if Manuel does lose it and goes that route, that he should stay with Hamels and keep Oswalt as his emergency (16^th-inning) left fielder. It could happen and pardon the self-reference below:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/442961-hard-to-believe-harry-howard-loses-it-and-who-batted-oswalt

Now, I don’t really expect Cholly to totally lose it, but he could partially panic and go with that three-headed monster of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels—three pitchers who may all get you over 200 innings pitched with a 3.00 ERA (or lower, in Doc’s case) and over 200 strikeouts (Halladay’s there, Hamels should surpass it, and Oswalt will get close to it.)

Of course, our three-headed monster needs a catchier nickname, than “(Our) Three-Headed Monster”, and to that cause I propose:

Two Roys and a Boy (okay: that kind of sucked, but I’m typing out loud here)

King Cole and The Roy-al Court (Get it? Blame it on the rain)

Roy Squared and Cole

R-C-R 

Okay, I think I have it.  We have two H’s, but also two Roys, and that’s been throwing me off.  Let’s go with their last initials: Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt.

H 2 O …we can say that Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt are like water torture for opposing batters.  Well, we don’t have to, but.

What do you think?  It’s pure, it’s clean, it’s, it’s… water. 

Which reminds me that it’s raining, and with three scheduled days off and 6 games remaining against the Braves in our last 19…

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The Philadelphia Phillies have shown resilience, heart, and very solid pitching in somehow amassing the best record in the National League during a strange season that could have derailed a lesser group.

At Citi Field—a mausoleum of a stadium that has not been kind to the Fightins in 2010—they rode three hits by Carlos Ruiz and solo shots by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to defeat the hapless New York Mets, 8-4.

The box score will reflect that their ace, Roy Halladay, was not at his sharpest, scattering eight hits and four earned runs over seven and two-thirds innings. Doc did however bring his bat, bouncing a seeing-eye, two run single up the middle with two outs in the fourth inning to break a 3-3 tie.

On a day that Halladay did not have his very best stuff, he collected the game-winning RBI(s), and tied Ubaldo Jimenez and Adam Wainwright for the league lead at 18 wins.  With the win, the Phils retained their one game lead over the Atlanta Braves—who scored 6 in the 6th to defeat 6’6″ Cardinals co-ace Chris Carpenter. Call it a devilish comeback if you will.

The Phillies also remained two games clear of the next team behind Atlanta in the wild card hunt, the San Francisco Giants, who hours later defeated the San Diego Padres in a 1-0 slugfest.

So, what of the Phillies’ offense that has not been as dynamic as in past seasons? Coming into tonight’s contest, they had scored exactly seven runs in six games in Queens this year.

Have they solved their Citi Field jinx? Maybe so, but more importantly they seemed to have found their offense. It did not hurt that Mr. September, Ryan Howard, stayed back on a pitch and casually lifted an opposite field shot to left center to tie the game at three.

Senor Octobre, Carlos Ruiz, also continued his torrid hitting, boosting his average to .296 with a 3-3 night, while also drawing two free passes. And Chase Utley, their Mr. Everything who seems to be finding his stroke again, pulled a ball into the right field seats to provide a seventh-inning insurance run.

Another part of the Phillies’ winning formula was the good fortune of coming to the plate versus a horrific looking Mets middle reliever Sean Green. Green, who looked even less polished than his surname would suggest, pitched just one-third of an inning, but packed in an intentional base-on-balls, another walk, and a hit batsman—plunking Wilson Valdez on a 3-0 offering with the bases loaded. 

After not finding the area code one  pitch to Halladay, and almost hitting him on another, Mets skipper Jerry Manuel pulled Mr. Green. Both Halladay and Green looked relieved when the shaky reliever was sent to the showers. How do you spell relief?

Then again, the above scenario is the Mets problem, who learned before the game that their ace, Johan Santana, would miss the remainder of the season. Despite a fine 2.98 ERA, the Mets had only given Santana 11 wins in his 29 starts this year.

It’s almost enough to make one feel sorry for the Metropolitans. Almost…

But this is Philly, and the Fightins did what they had to do in beating back a sub .500 team on the road. And if it takes hit batters and two runs batted in by their starting pitcher to get a win, the Phils won’t complain.

With 20 games left to play, the Phillies are not yet a lock for the playoffs. But with a resurgent Howard, the best starting pitching in the National League (arguably), and the experience of taking it to the wire the last few years, would anyone be accused of being a homer if they identified them as the team to beat in the NL?

No, I didn’t think so.

‘

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Of all the major team sports, baseball is, uniquely, a game of great matchups and showdowns. Mostly, it’s a game of individual showdowns within the construct of team ball.

While postseason baseball already brings us to the edge of our seats, there are certain pitcher versus batter showdowns that take us out of our seats altogether.

Think about it:  When an Albert Pujols is in the batter’s box versus a Roy Halladay, he doesn’t have an offensive lineman blocking for him or a power forward setting a vicious screen so he can get a free look.  It’s top batter versus ace pitcher—one of the quintessential beautiful truths of our national pastime.

And then there is the allure of the great starting pitching matchup—a mano-a-mano  so compelling that fellow major leaguers would pay top money just to be in the stands. (Of course, they can afford it more than you or I, but you get the point).

We have team-versus-team rivalries, heightened by fan bases that just don’t like one another.  We may not see Yankees-Sox this October, but the Yankees and Rays are already building a great rivalry. 

What about players or managers facing their former teams?  Just last year, many fans were looking forward to seeing longtime Yankees icon Joe Torre managing against the dynasty he helped to create in the Bronx.  Oh yeah, it also would have been the first World Series battle between the Dodgers and Yankees since 1981.

If it weren’t for the Phillies successfully defending their NL title, we would have seen that.

With all this drama as our backdrop, let us preview the 5 Best Matchups We Could See in October.

Will Mr.Yankee, Derek Jeter, make our Top 5?   Stay tuned.

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