Kuzul

The Red Sox are my sleeper pick.

This prediction comes in spite of their heavy losses in sluggers Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre.

The Red Sox, though, offset those losses by adding power hitting 1B Adrian Gonzalez, filling their gaping hole at the position, as Kevin Youkilis was not getting the job done.  Now Youkilis has been kicked over to the other side of the diamond where he will have a difficult time adjusting to a position he’s played at for only 1,606 innings his career.

In addition, Boston lured Carl Crawford over with the promise that he can play in a place without the fear of being overshadowed.  He will fit in nicely in left field.

Never has an underdog had such an established roster. 

A big issue with the 2010 team was their amount of injuries, spread nicely over the course of the season so as not to look suspicious.

Furthermore, the Red Sox starting rotation, looking for a boost, will get one when John Lackey is encouraged by the organization to wear Curt Schilling’s bloody sock, but not the famous one. 

Thanks to David Ortiz’s terrific second half of the season (after hitting .054 through June), the Red Sox will overcome their demons and end the curse, reaching the playoffs for the first time in two years. 

Finally, sensing their similarities to their rivals in New York, the Red Sox will decide to find a new rival, and it will be BP oil.  Now aren’t you back on their side? 

The Toronto Blue Jays will finally reach their potential and finish second. 

With their mighty sluggers, the Jays will fight for the wild card.  They will be led by Jose Bautista, who was consistent in 2010 and consistently mediocre every year before that. 

Based on Bautista’s incredible performance last season, the Jays will bank on the same happening in 2011 to one of their other mediocre hitters with at least moderate power, or all of them.  My pick is Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider.  And Jose Bautista, who will prove that last season was the true baseline of his stardom.  He will hit 73.1 home runs next season, breaking Barry Bonds’ single season mark by 0.1 after the league simply decides to give it to him because “it’s the right thing to do.” 

Behind the budding strength of their starting rotation, the Blue Jays will thrive, breaking the .500 barrier for the first time since—wait, they’ve been over .500 four of the last five years. 

Correction, behind their young starting pitchers, the Blue Jays will develop higher expectations, sure to come back to bite them in the long run. 

Also, their bullpen will learn to be more apathetic.  Blown saves will follow.

The outlook for the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays is a bright one, for the first time since whenever they will become relevant (or whatever).

Behind a new youth movement and a commitment to not spending money they don’t have, the Tampa Bay Rays will ride a wave of success to third place

Their imminent third place finish will be a drop from last year’s second place finish, but it will be seen as a vast improvement to their predicted sixth place finish.

The departure of Carlos Pena, who will be considered by many to be the “missing piece,” will open up a spot for Dan Johnson, who will wow fans with his .198 batting average. 

He will depart the next season with a $10 million deal with the Cubs. 

During the home opener, the Rays’ organization will retire number 13.  Nothing will ever be the same. 

With the other departures of, hold on let me get ready: Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, and most likely the increasingly desperate Rafael Soriano, spots will be opened up for future Jason Bartlett, future Matt Garza, Lance Cormier, Mike Ekstrom, Chad Qualls, and Kyle Farnsworth. 

Lastly, you may remember 3B Evan Longoria’s claim that the fans did not show up to Tampa Bay home games.  What you may not have heard is when the fans responded, “Sure we don’t attend” as they put their masks back on. 

The 2011 slogan for the Baltimore Orioles is “Success In Imports.” 

“Nick Markakis and the Mercenaries” will take the field next season unfamiliar with each other’s playing styles.  They may not even know each other’s names.

Mark Reynolds will be known as “one two three,” Derrek Lee as “that one guy who fought Chris Young,” and Brian Roberts, an Oriole veteran, will become “that guy who’s just sort of been here.” 

Younger players like Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold will sit cross-legged in front of Roberts as he tells tales of what the roster used to look like in his “hay day.”

“We had a man by the name of Rafael Palmeiro and a guy named Surhoff.”  “Woooooowww,” the youngsters will say in awe, “Did you have cleats back then?”

Manager Buck Showalter, most well known for guiding the Texas Rangers to three consecutive third place finishes in ’04-’06, will channel his inner “True Grit.”  In the process, he will take advantage of the Coen Brothers’ new film and model himself more after Jeff Bridges’, Rooster Cogburn. 

The players, not knowing how to respond to this, simply will ignore him. 

After a few weeks and becoming tired of the Rooster Cogburn character, Showalter will go onto compare himself to Jeff Bridges’ character in Seabiscuit.  Because of this, he will compare his pitchers to workhorses…then race horses. Then he’ll treat them like true race horses. 

The young Oriole staff must hope they don’t wear down. 

The New York Yankees will hire a new GM who looks eerily like the Sith Lord. 

Along the way, they will finish in last place after their makeshift rotation fails down the stretch, and by stretch, I mean June onward. 

CC Sabathia will dominate opponents for the first few innings of the year. Then he will get tired. 

AJ Burnett will become the new staff ace after all the pressure of New York baseball is lifted off his shoulders. After a few quality starts, the pressure will return tenfold.  He will never recover.

Phil Hughes will become the Phil Hughes of 2010.  He will continually be overlooked by everyone who cannot take their eyes off of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez’s receding hair-line. 

Andy Pettitte will come back for 2011, retiring from baseball only between his starts.  For this reason, he will not be in great shape.  The Yankees, used to Clemens antics, will not mind as long as Pettitte makes more than he’s worth. 

As far as the lineup goes, Derek Jeter will act as though nothing weird happened this offseason and it will be totally awkward.  Alex Rodriguez will gossip around the clubhouse to make sure the attention is not on his own declining average and OBP.

Brett Gardner, seeing Jeter’s success, will dive into the crowd, make unwarranted jump throws (from the outfield), make a flip play, win multiple undeserved gold gloves, and demand an outrageous contract for his worth. He will be loved in the city of New York. 

Robinson Cano will hit the cover off the ball like the stud that he is, then receive a cover article on Sports Illustrated, and then promptly be overlooked again.

Nick Swisher is awesome. 

Welcome to 2011, the A-Rod and Jeter show.  Is Mariano Rivera even still around?  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Now I know this is ridiculous.  It is, but Jeff Francoeur has been on a consistent downward slope since he started his MLB career with a bang.

Maybe he would not even have a job if the Royals did not decide to throw money his way. 

As I followed Francoeur’s career when he first hit the bigs, I soon began to associate his name with success.  He played well defensively, and he was a middle of the order hitter. 

In his first half season, playing at 21-years-old, he had a slash line of .300/.336/.549.  He followed up that campaign with two moderately successful seasons in 2006 and 2007, belting a combined 48 home runs and driving in 208 runs.  The difference though was his considerable drop in OPS thanks to his dramatic drop in OBP. 

Francoeur still showed signs of power entering the 2008 season, and there was reason to hope for growth.

Hope was soon lost, however, as Francoeur struggled to hit 11 home runs and managed only a .653 OPS. His defensive WAR also dropped to -1.1, proving his disappointment in both aspects of his game.

The next year, the Braves finally had enough and traded the once future star to the division rival New York Mets. 

With the Mets, Francoeur began resemble his 2005 self, but ultimately his numbers declined to .237 average with an OBP below .300 in 2010. After being traded to the Rangers, Francoeur hit .340/.357/.491 in 56 at-bats. 

It’s obvious Francoeur has his fair share of talent.  He is an above average defender with a cannon arm.  I would rather have Francoeur running around in right field than, say, Jose Guillen, but that’s really not saying much (and hey, the Royals had Guillen last year too!). Francoeur simply appears to be a liability at the plate.  The only value he brings is his defense, but even there he has been inconsistent.  Through his career in the big leagues, Francoeur’s defensive WAR has bounced around between -1.2 and 1.7. 

In spite of all of the above information though, Francoeur received a 1-year, $2.5 million deal with the Royals, who are said to be undergoing a youth movement.

It is possible Francoeur could be used in a platoon role in which he plays mainly against lefties.  In his last three seasons Francoeur has hit .281/.326/.418 against left-handed pitchers, but that OBP is a point above the overall league average. 

Francoeur is simply occupying a spot that could be given to a younger player fighting for a chance to prove himself for the future.  The Royals are not built for 2011, they’re built for 2013, possibly 2012.  With that said, the only reason to sign Francoeur would be to fill a void. 

I don’t know if general manager Dayton Moore wants to be competitive this season and try to please the fans or if he really cares what’s best for the organization.  Even if the money can be overcome, rather easily, Francoeur is going to become the next project for the Royals.

Over the last few years, coaches have tried to fix Francoeur’s swing and his plate discipline, but five years into his big league career, it is tough to imagine him suddenly finding his way and becoming a true baseball star. 

In the name Francoeur, I still think of the talent he has demonstrated, but now his name is becoming synonymous with hope.  Nowadays teams are searching for cheap solutions with potential upside.  The Giants found it with Aubrey Huff, the Rays with Carlos Pena and even the A’s with Jack Cust.

The Royals though are wasting a spot in the lineup and in the field with Jeff Francoeur. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The A’s acquired Kevin Kouzmanoff last offseason to fill the void that Eric Chavez would inevitably create.  After one season Kouzmanoff has worn out his welcome.

It is not as though “Kouz” has played so far below his career averages in Oakland, he has not, but the Oakland front office should have seen his numbers and known that he was not worth the money, even if he makes very little relative to the rest of the league.

In three full seasons in San Diego Kouzmanoff hit 59 home runs, a respectable number especially in a pitcher’s park like Petco.  When the A’s traded for him it seemed that they wanted the power he brought over, but cheap power can be found in other areas, such as players like Jack Cust.

The problem with Kouzmanoff has been his disturbingly low OPS impacted by his incredibly poor on-base percentage.  In his last two seasons in San Diego Kouzmanoff posted an OBP around .300 and an OPS around .725.  For a “power hitter” those numbers will not cut it.

Then you look at the 2010 season for Kouz and his numbers fell in every major offensive statistic.  His average dropped to .247, he hit 16 home runs, still a respectable number, but his OPS fell to .679.

By comparison, Ryan Sweeney poster a better OPS (.725) while hitting just one home run over the course of the entire season.  Of the nine regular starting players (including DH) Kouzmanoff posted the eighth-best OPS on the team.

In terms of OBP, Kouzmanoff was last on the team with a .283 mark.  Out of 149 MLB hitters, Kevin Kouzmanoff was No. 146 in OBP.

To put it plainly, Kevin Kouzmanoff was terrible in 2010.

Now it can be said that the A’s did not lose anything while playing a relatively cheap option at 3B, but his turn in the lineup was just a large hole.  The fact that he is still in the starting lineup as the A’s are making a conscious effort to improve the offense is unacceptable. 

Further, even if Kouzmanoff represents a temporary solution to 3B, then why did he hit in the middle of the order the majority of the year: 97.6 percent of his at-bats came anywhere from third to sixth in the order.

The only positive aspect of Kouzmanoff’s game is his defense, but even then his defensive WAR was 0.5 last season—not enough to compensate for his lack of offense.

Earlier this offseason the A’s claimed Edwin Encarnacion off waivers from the Blue Jays only to let him go soon after.

Encarnacion had an OPS of .790 last season, over 100 points better than Kouzmanoff.  Encarnacion has averaged 25 home runs a season for his career and he simply represents a bigger power threat than what the A’s have now.

On the other hand Encarnacion’s defense is unimpressive, but I believe the A’s could have gotten away with his glove because of the plus defenders that cover the rest of the field.

SS Cliff Pennington, for example, posted a 1.2 defensive WAR last season, enough to compensate for Encarnacion.

With Adrian Beltre showing no interest in Oakland and ultimately signing with the Texas Rangers, the A’s are stuck with Kouzmanoff.

The 2011 offense has already improved to the point that Kouzmanoff will most likely be slid into the bottom part of the order.  It seems as though the A’s can find a way to win with his bat in the lineup as long as others carry the slack.

With that being said, the San Francisco Giants, the defending World Series champions, had a starting lineup with no position players who had an OBP below .300.  Most of the better teams in baseball do not have such a player.

To go even further, the Giants’ 2010 Opening Day 3B, Pablo Sandoval, was benched for his poor production, but he still managed a .323 OBP and a .732 OPS.  Then again, the organization had higher expectations for the young slugger while the A’s already know what they have in Kouzmanoff.

As it stands right now there are no clear alternatives to Kouzmanoff, but it should not be too difficult to find someone who can manage at least a .300 OBP.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:

The Angels players, all personally offended by the public’s plea for outside help, will rally behind the return of Kendry Morales and Tim Salmon. 

Torii Hunter, who for so long called for Carl Crawford to become a Halo, will pretend he was happy with the roster all along. 

At the same time owner Arte Moreno will claim that he believed in the players within the organization enough not to spend money on big name free agents. 

The players themselves, however, will only use their anger towards Moreno as motivation to not only win each game but also to slaughter their opponent in any way possible.

On May 20, Torii Hunter will hit a walk-off homerun against the Atlanta Braves, and in the ensuing celebration he will break his leg, much like Morales, only there will be player testimonies that do not add up.  An investigation will follow. 

Brandon Wood, relegated to executive ball-boy, sorry, executive ball-man, will find hope in his new role. 

He will meet the soul of Derek Jeter (Because New York stripped it from him) who will guide him on an out-of-body experience to see how to fix his career.  It may sound ridiculous, but so does his .382 OPS in 81 games last year. 

In around mid-September it will slowly come out that the Angels organization is actually an elaborate 50 year-long police sting to uncover the mob’s involvement in baseball, thus explaining why Crawford and Adrian Beltre kept their distance. 

Also, the organization will be disbanded when said information is leaked by Julian Assange.

Oakland Athletics:

The pitching staff, led by future Tim Hudson, future Mark Mulder, and future Barry Zito will rally around the assumption that if they make the playoffs a movie will be made about their triumphs.

Around July 15, with the A’s in the wild-card hunt, GM Billy Beane will convince Yankee GM Brian Cashman to trade Nick Swisher back to Oakland while eating 90% of his salary. 

Then Swisher will grow his hair back to its appropriate length and use his power stroke and cowboy attitude to make the offense believe in itself for the stretch run. 

Breakout star of 2011 will be 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff who finally loosens up at the plate and stops swinging at pitches buried in the dirt. 

Seriously though, Kouz hits like I’d imagine Macaulay Culkin might swing a bat while he light-heartedly tries to defend his home from inept thieves. 

I might be a little off-topic but whenever Kouzmanoff steps into the batter’s box my heart sinks a little inside. 

It’s like the world is darker, the clouds form above and rain pours down, so yes even God wants to avoid watching his at bats.  But hey his defense his above average, so there’s that. 

The A’s failure to sign Adrian Beltre may seem like a bad thing, and that’s because it is.

Finally, the search for a new ballpark will end when the organization says “to hell with it” and starts playing at a local high school field.  The high school team will take over the Coliseum and attendance will see a slight increase. 

Seattle Mariners:

With Ichiro threatening to return to Japan unless the Mariners avoid last place, the Mariners will avoid last place.  Infielder Chone Figgins, wanting to prove his worth to himself, will enter Spring Training having gained 20 pounds of muscle.

By July 15, he will have hit 40 home runs, bumping the team total to 43.  Ichiro will be overshadowed and will then retire. 

Because of their fabulous third-place finish, Felix Hernandez will not be traded as he will donate over half of each paycheck back to the organization to blow on other mediocre pitchers and washed up outfielders. 

Then, making a sudden and unwarranted “game-changer” the Mariners will unsuccessfully trade for Cliff Lee. 

The Phillies will turn down the offer, but using outside, somewhat legal help the Mariners will quietly acquire Lee and put him in a Vargas jersey because no one knows who that player is anyway.

Once the media catches on, the Seattle organization will cover its ears and, in unison, repeat the phrase “na na na na na na na na I can’t hear you, you words don’t affect us because we have special shields that only we can see.” 

After a few weeks everyone will give up.  The move, however, will not help as Lee is unmotivated and finds a way to injure his right pinky. 

While searching for success, Justin Smoak will toy with the idea of adding a knuckleball to his arsenal, and oh yeah he’s going to become a starting pitcher.  Smoak will fit in nicely in the No. 2 slot in the rotation.   

Texas Rangers:

Coming off of their terrific pennant-winning season in 2010, the Texas Rangers will struggle to replicate their success in 2011 due to Adrian Beltre’s mere presence. 

Beltre will constantly walk around “making it rain” in the face of good ol’ hardworking players like Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson. 

Michael Young, like Mariners’ SP Justin Smoak, will make the transition from 1B/DH to pitcher as part of a 2011 movement that will be aptly named “Year of the Pitcher, Again.” 

Around June 1, after Beltre’s move to the leadoff spot in order to really “shake things up” as stated by manager Ron Washington, the team will go on a relatively long winning streak, taking two in a row from the Cleveland Indians. 

As part of that same “shake up,” Neftali Feliz will finally be removed from the closer role and put on the gear as the next great catcher. 

Washington will explain the move by saying that it improves the team’s overall “WAR” and reporters will wonder if he knows what that means. 

For the rest of the season fans will call for a replacement to Washington, and finally Nolan Ryan will hold a press conference only to announce his return to the mound, “but only as a closer,” he will explain.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In 2007, Bruce Bochy became the Giants’ manager.  In that season, the team won 71 games and finished last in their division.  In each season since then, the Giants have improved their win-loss record while finishing higher in the division. 

Four years ago the Giants were a mess.  They were old, they were brittle, and they were overshadowed by Barry Bonds’ tainted journey to a record nobody outside of the bay really wanted to see broken.

In 2007, the Giants extensively used Ryan Klesko, a then 36-year-old veteran.  In 116 games, he hit only six home runs while batting .260.  Also, at first was Rich Aurilia, who barely mustered an OBP over .300. 

Then you had Dave Roberts, then 35, in centerfield.  Like Klesko, he managed to hit .260 while making $5 million that year.  In addition, Omar Vizquel was the starting shortstop, but even at age 40, it’s hard to throw him aside.  Though his offense was well below average, his defense was strong enough that he could have been an asset had there been solid hitters surrounding him in the lineup.  There weren’t.

The Giants’ average age was 33.1 in 2007, and no starting position player was under the age of 32.  Fast forward to 2010, and the Giants’ average age fell to 29.6 with no starting position player over the age of 33. 

In those three years, the Giants became younger and stronger.

Their homerun total rose from 131 to 162 with a 21 point increase in OPS.  In 2007, the Giants were last in the National League in slugging percentage and OPS.  They were sixth and eighth this past season, respectively.

Even though the Giants’ offense was not intimidating even this last year, upgrades were made to be competitive.  Then their pitching, the strength of the 2007 team, took an even bigger step forward in the three years after.

Back in Tim Lincecum’s rookie year, the Giants had three starters with an ERA of 4.00 or below (Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Lincecum), and only Cain threw more than 200 innings.  The team ERA of 4.19 was good enough for fifth in the NL, yet the offense held the Giants to their 71 wins.

This past season, the Giants jumped to the league lead in ERA at 3.36, and four of the Giant starters not only had an ERA below 4.00, but also below 3.50. 

Since Bruce Bochy arrived in San Francisco, the Giants have literally gone from worst in the division to first.  This cannot be attributed solely to Bochy, or GM Brian Sabean, but to a new movement in the organization.

Since the start of the 2007 season, the Giants have drafted Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, two key pieces of last October’s memorable run.  Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez improved in that same time span, though Zito has more or less remained stagnant in his San Francisco career. 

You won’t see Ryan Klesko hogging up a spot in the middle of the order or Dave Roberts at the top of the lineup.  The Giants have learned to avoid bloated contracts that handcuff the organization.  The only exception is the deal to sign Barry Zito, which, surprise, occurred before the 2007 season. 

Since that Barry Zito deal, the only truly awful contract has been given to Aaron Rowand, but even his $60 million deal appears cheap compared to other regrettable contracts (think Alfonso Soriano). 

If anything, the Giants have found a way to play around the contracts of Zito and Rowand.  Rowand’s contract lasts for only two more years, with Zito lasting three more.  Once that money is taken off the books, the Giants will be able to lock in their younger, more reliable players including Buster Posey, Lincecum, Cain, and other young studs. 

The starting lineup is now built around young stars in Posey, and yes, Pablo Sandoval too.  Brandon Belt is projected to arrive in San Francisco next summer, and the rest of the lineup complements the growth of these young hitters.

Still, the biggest upgrade has been in the pitching department.  Much has been made of the Giants’ homegrown success on the mound, and it cannot be understated. 

With a stronger farm system and the foresight not to get locked into unreasonable free agent contracts, the Giants have discovered their own little way to win.  It’s that simple.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With a greatly improved starting rotation, the Milwaukee Brewers have become contenders in 2011. But do not mistake that for “division winners.”

In 2010, the Brewers ran out a consistently strong offense, while the pitching kept them in the trenches. This coming season, expect the offense to be more or less the same, but the additions of Shaun Marcum and Zack Grienke may not completely change the Brewers’ recent fortune.

The main issue is not talent, they have plenty, but rather competition. Do not forget that last year’s division winners, the Cincinnati Reds, may not even be the favorites in 2011. In addition, the St. Louis Cardinals, who underperformed in 2010, have many returning pieces that rival the Brewers.

In terms of offense, the Brewers have plenty of power in the middle of the order, but first, they need men to get on base. Carlos Gomez, a speedy center fielder, only had a .298 OBP last season, while new shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt also had an OBP below .300. By comparison, neither the Cardinals nor the Reds had a single starting position player with an OBP below .321. 

The Brewers’ biggest star, Prince Fielder, isn’t even the best first baseman in his division. In fact, he’s the third best behind the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols and Joey Votto of the Reds. With those two sluggers, the division’s best teams in 2010 will be hard to surpass.

In the pitching department, the Brewers made significant upgrades to run out a “big four” in 2011 that includes Marcum, Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf. In 2010, Marcum’s 3.64 ERA was the best of the bunch, but Greinke’s 1.07 WHIP proves he’s the true ace. It’s hard to figure that the aging Randy Wolf can be included in the “big four” which is really a “big three.”

The St. Louis Cardinals’ top four starters include a former Cy Young winner in Chris Carpenter, whose 3.22 ERA last season was better than any of the starters in Milwaukee. Then you include Adam Wainwright with an ERA of 2.42. 

The Reds’ rotation is solid, but they lack a true top of the rotation starter. With pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, however, the Reds will run out a quality pitcher every day. 

Overall, the Brewers’ rotation projects to be the second best in the division behind the seemingly forgotten St. Louis Cardinals. Their offense, however, may prove to be the wild card. With established power, they can score runs in bunches, but consistency may be an issue without proven hitters at the top of the order. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central division.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com