Kuzul

With fantasy baseball drafts in full swing, here are 50 fearless fantasy predictions to consider for the 2011 season.   

50. Derek Jeter is your number three fantasy shortstop after Hanley and Tulo —Look for a bounce back year aimed at proving he’s still earning his money.

49. Ubaldo Jiminez will undoubtedly be overvalued in your league—Remember his 2^nd half?

48. Mike Stanton will finish in the top five in the NL in home runs—He’s also not going to win any batting titles.

47. Aroldis Chapman is this year’s Neftali Feliz—There’s no questioning the ability, it’s all about control and opportunity.

46. Billy Butler is really Mike Sweeney—The power just isn’t coming.

45. Roy Oswalt finishes with the best numbers of any Phillies starter—Call it a hunch.

44. Alex Rodriguez continues to regress—We aren’t going to see .300 with 35+ home runs from him again.

43. Matt Kemp finishes with better numbers than CarGo—We’ve seen the worst of the former and the best of the latter.

42. Cameron Maybin steals more than 30 bases and is fantasy relevant—He’s got the tools and he’s still just 24 years old.

41. Josh Johnson is not worth the risk-Back AND shoulder problems, no thanks.

40. Wandy Rodriguez will be overvalued during your draft—He is what he is.

39. Max Scherzer will be undervalued during your draft—Look at his second half stats.

38. Aaron Hill has a bounce back year—If I’m wrong, so is everyone else.

37. Delmon Young’s home run total rises again this year—Look at last season’s doubles.  Despite four full major league seasons, he’s still only 25.

36. Jonathan Papelbon doesn’t finish the season the season as Boston’s closer—For the record, I also don’t think its Bobby Jenks.

35. Someone in your draft will reach for B.J. Upton—You don’t want to be that owner.

34. John Lackey will be significantly better than last season—He’s being undervalued by everyone.

33. Drew Stubbs will not be significantly different than Chris Young—It’s all about eating the batting average.

32. There won’t be much difference between Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro—You’ll pay a lot less for Castro.

31. Someone will take a chance on Brian Roberts and his back—It shouldn’t be you.

30. Rafael Soriano saves double digit games—Hard to believe Mariano Rivera continues to be superhuman.

29. Francisco Liriano improves again this year—If he’s 85 percent of his 2006 self three years removed from Tommy John surgery he’s a steal on draft day.

28. Howie Kendrick becomes the player we’ve all projected he would be—Only because we’ve mostly all given up at this point.

27. Shortstop is so shallow that if Rafael Furcal gets 500 at bats he could challenge for top five at the position—That’s also a pretty big “if”.

26. Tsuyoshi Nishioka could hit .300, steal 25-30 bases and score 100 runs—He’ll be a cheaper source of steals than Chone Figgins.

25. Craig Kimbrel is this year’s Carlos Marmol—You can’t help but love the Ks.

24. Enough owners are hesitating on Miguel Cabrera that he’s falling in drafts—Until he takes to twitter and starts using the hashtag #winning, I’m not willing to be one of those owners.

23. Over three seasons in Texas, Josh Hamilton has averaged 126 games—I’ll take the under.

22. Josh Hamilton will still play more games for the Rangers than Nelson Cruz-Cruz is a highly productive player, but dealing with his day-to-day status and DL stints is just too frustrating.

21. Shin-Soo Choo may be as predictably safe a five category outfielder as there is—He lacks upside, but barring injury, .300-85-20-85-20 seems virtually guaranteed.

20. Hunter Pence may be the second most predictable outfielder—Three straight seasons of exactly 25 home runs, seriously?  He’s also never driven in 100 runs.

19. Carlos Lee’s numbers will continue to trend downward—He’s not a player you should be willing to own anymore.

18. Josh Beckett rebounds to win 15 or better this season—He’ll give up runs, but the WHIP remains strong and he can still strike hitters out; plus, the Sox revamped offense will keep him in more games.

17. I expect Angel Pagan to be at least as valuable as last season-Beyond David Wright is there anyone in the Mets lineup to fear?  They will need to manufacture runs.

16. Andre Ethier rebounds to finish around his 2009 numbers—You can probably apply that same logic to most of the Dodgers hitters.  Last season was just odd.

15. Justin Upton stays healthy and gets to 30-30 without being a batting average liability—The same can’t be said for his brother.

14. Check out the even number year/odd number year split for Prince Fielder’s career—There’s no logic to it, but it is 2011.  I’m just saying.

13. Vladimir Guerrero is the best late round chance out there for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs—He’ll hit ten of those home runs on balls no one else would even swing at.

12. Despite the Daniel Hudson hype, I think Madison Bumgarner is a much better value—We’ve even seen him do it in the post-season.

11. I don’t think we see 100 games out of Justin Morneau this season—I would love to see him come back and return to prior form but all the failed return attempts from last year give me pause.

10. Jimmy Rollins is no longer a top ten shortstop—The average has declined each of the last three years and the wear and tear is starting to show.  Health will be a concern again.

9. Alex Rios is in for a big year—Expect the steals to fall off some, but the average and power will improve as he likely sees better pitches hitting third in front of Konerko and Dunn.

8. Kevin Youkilis has more value than is being projected—Remember he’ll be playing third base with Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, and that’s a fairly shallow position.

7. Brandon Morrow is the most underrated starter in the American League going into the season—Pitching in the AL East is brutal, but he handled it well last year and has 200+ K ability.

6. Tommy Hanson disappoints anyone calling him a fantasy ace—This is purely another gut call.

5. In the battle of the “outfielders Ja(y)son”, Werth easily bests Heyward—This is purely a 2011 prediction.

4. Colby Rasmus disappoints the fantasy baseball world—It won’t be his fault and owners are going to curse Tony LaRussa when he winds up in a platoon situation.

3. Adam Dunn will hit 45 or more home runs—It’s been a long time since he’s seen the kind of lineup protection he’ll enjoy in Chicago.

2. Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t save 30 games—Not the pitcher he once was, and with the off-the-field issues and a club that could finish last in NL East, I just can’t see him keeping it together all season. 

1. Andrew McCutchen is the young hitter most worth reaching for—He’s truly a five tool player and a .300 season with 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases is a definite possibility.

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It used to be a given in fantasy baseball that you could count on picking up outfielders in the middle rounds of a draft in order to supplement your power numbers—home runs and RBI.

In doing some draft prep for this season, it’s becoming more and more apparent that those days are likely over.

Last season, just five outfielders—Jose Bautista, Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Vernon Wells and Corey Hart—managed 30 or more round trippers. This represented a drop-off of four players from the 2009 and 2007 seasons, five from 2008 and 10 from 2006.

Even more telling is the fact that only two of those players had ever hit 30 or more home runs before in a season—Hamilton in 2008 and Wells way back in 2003 and 2006. That’s far from a cast of consistency you can count on.

In examining RBI, the trend is equally disturbing. Last season just eight outfielders managed to drive in 100 runs, a decline of two from the previous season and five from the 2007 and 2008 campaigns. If we venture back one more season to 2006, the outfielder representation is double last season’s output, with 16 players driving in 100 runs or more.

Last season the aging Vladimir Guerrero did it for the 10th time in his career, Matt Holliday for the fourth, Ryan Braun the third and Josh Hamilton for the second. The rest were all first-timers. Guerrero is now 36, so it’s difficult to think you can count on that type of production again, but both Braun and Holliday seem like fairly safe bets to be at or around the mark.

Depending on your tolerance for risk, the top outfield spot seems to be a toss-up between Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

While CarGo managed monster numbers last season, he’s young, and it’s difficult to think he doesn’t regress just a bit. Crawford lands in an ideal situation in Boston, where he’s a virtual lock for 100-plus runs and 50 steals to go with a .300 average and double-digit home runs. You know what you’re getting in Crawford. You hope Gonzalez 2011 is just 90 percent of Gonzalez 2010.

After those two, Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun seem relatively safe as top-tier outfielders, though Braun’s home run total has dipped the last two years in favor of declining strikeouts and a higher OBP.

Then the guessing begins.

It’s hard to feel good about Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz from a health perspective. Matt Kemp owners from last year are likely to be so jaded by his 2010 season that they’ll run screaming in the other direction on draft day. It doesn’t seem like Shin-Soo Choo or Alex Rios has the needed pop to get to 30, and while I think Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton are very interesting, you’re paying an awful lot for the upside, and I’m not sure either guy puts it all together this year.

For all those who are jumping up and down and yelling, “Jose !@#$%ing Bautista,” I’m sorry. I need to see that again. It just looks very Brady Anderson to me.

So who should you target?

Let me start by saying that I advocate trying to grab CarGo, Holliday or Braun. All three should have an above average chance of posting 30 home runs AND 100 RBI. I like the consistency of Crawford a lot, but I believe there’s more speed out there than many owners realize, and with the quality of pitching clearly on the rise, more managers are going to look for opportunities to manufacture runs by giving players the green light.

However, not everyone is going to be in a spot where they are able or it is sensible to grab one of those guys, so here’s my six-pack of potential 30-100 guys for 2011 that you could target a little later, though in some cases not too much later, on draft day.

Andre Ethier: Last year was a strange, strange season for the Dodgers. I just think the real Ethier looks a lot more like the 2009 version that hit 31 home runs and drove in 102.

Jay Bruce: The strikeouts are brutal, but he’ll turn 24 at the start of the season and already has more than 1,200 major league ABs, and his second half (.306, 15 HRs and 34 RBI in less than 200 at-bats) gives us a reason to think he could be heading in the direction of teammate Joey Votto offensively.

Delmon Young: I’ve written about him as a player to reach for. He “broke out” last season with 21 HRs and 112 RBI. He’s only 25 and a .292 hitter over his four major league seasons. After a tough 2009 season, he hit 46 doubles last year. He’s just entering his prime, and the power is coming.

Mike Stanton: The fact that he’s only 21 scares me. The fact that he hit 22 home runs in his first hundred big league games erases a lot of that fear. He won’t win a batting title anytime soon, but don’t be surprised if he posts an Adam Dunn-type season.

Matt Kemp: I know he’s hard to stomach if you wasted an early round pick on him last year, but he still hit 28 home runs and drove in 89 runs while stealing 19 bases. 2008 and 2009 were seasons where he hit .290 and .297 respectively before he fell to .249 last year. I don’t buy it. He’s just too good a hitter to repeat that average, and I think he hauls it up significantly and brings up the power numbers along with it. If he runs at all, it’s gravy.

Adam Lind: There’s no doubt he’s brutal against lefties, but is the 2009 version (35 HRs and 114 RBI) the real Lind? Or are 2010’s dreadful numbers (23 HRs and 72 RBI) more realistic? If you think it’s somewhere in the middle and split the difference, you’ve got 29 HRs and 93 RBI, and that’s knocking on the door of our 30 and 100 target.

There may be other veterans you wish to consider, like Jayson Werth and Corey Hart, or perhaps you’re fond of “toolsy” guys like Drew Stubbs and Chris Young. Regardless of your particular hunches, there is no denying that we enter this season with more outfield question marks and uncertainty when it comes to home runs and RBI than we’ve seen in quite a long time.

How long can you really afford to wait on your outfielders on draft day?

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