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Where Does Wilmer Flores Fit into the New York Mets’ 2014 Plan?

Wilmer Flores has been a top position player prospect for the New York Mets since he signed as an international free agent in 2007. Now that he’s made his MLB debut six years later, will he have a role with the Mets in the big leagues for 2014?

After putting together a .300/.349/.479 line with 18 home runs and 75 RBI between St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2012, his final minor league test came last season in Triple-A with the Las Vegas 51s.

He didn’t disappoint in his age-21 season, becoming a force in Wally Backman’s lineup. Flores hit .321/.357/.531 with 15 home runs and 86 RBI in 107 games prior to getting promoted on his 22nd birthday.

A hamstring injury to David Wright left Flores’ natural position of third base open for him upon his arrival to Flushing. His time in the majors started well—he drove in nine runs through his first six games.

However, an ankle injury in Los Angeles slowed his production and reduced his time on the field. Flores finished the season with a .211/.248/.295 line, including one home run and 13 RBI in 95 at-bats (27 games played).  The injury prevented the Mets from seeing what Flores was truly capable of.

When talking about Wilmer’s future in baseball, his bat has rarely been the question—the unknown is what position on the field he’ll stick at. He’s spent time at shortstop and third base before moving to play second base for the 51s. He also saw time at first base before making it to the majors.

Heading into 2014, every position Flores could potentially occupy is currently filled—David Wright has third base locked down, Daniel Murphy is at second base and there will be a competition between Ike Davis and Lucas Duda for first.

According to a report from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com, manager Terry Collins is anxious to see Flores on the field, especially at second base.

I want to see him at the position he’s going to play. This kid is going to swing the bat.

He’ll likely get a long look there during spring training, but he won’t be unseating Murphy. If Flores does perform well enough in camp, he could head north with the team as a valuable bench player instead of heading back to Vegas.

One school of thought is that it would be a detriment to Flores’ development if he’s in the big leagues playing two or three games a week instead of playing every day in the minors. While this holds some truth, he can certainly benefit from being a bench player.

Being a reserve in the major leagues is probably the toughest job in baseball. Not knowing when you’ll be called upon to get in the game forces a player to always be mentally and physically ready. A player as young as Flores can learn a lot while observing different game situations unfold.

Teams have used top starting pitching prospects as relievers in their rookie seasons to help them get adjusted to life in the big leagues—why can’t the same be done with position players?

Adam Wainwright appeared in 61 games as a reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. He saved four games in the postseason, throwing one nasty curveball all Mets fans will remember forever. In 2007, he made 32 starts for the Red Birds, winning 14 games.

The Atlanta Braves did something similar with Kris Medlen in 2012. The right-hander appeared in 50 games overall, starting 12. He was used as a reliever in the first half, and then was put into the rotation for the second half because the Braves knew he wouldn’t come close to his innings limit.

It’s a process that makes sense—teams give top prospects a taste of life in the big leagues and a chance to contribute.

Throwing rookies straight into major league competition can be a bit overwhelming at times. Easing Flores into games a couple times a week can help him slow things down and focus on one at-bat at a time.

After seeing the type of numbers he put up in Triple-A, Flores has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. Being a bench player could help him sharpen the mental side of his game while laying the groundwork toward being a successful big leaguer over the course of his career.

The Mets will find a spot for him if he maximizes his playing time and shows he can hit. It would motivate New York to either trade someone to make room on the field, or trade Flores to a team that can immediately insert him into their everyday lineup—getting a good return in the process.

Player statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Matt’s Mets opinion has been featured on MLB Trade Rumors, Yahoo! Sports, MetsBlog, Amazin‘ Avenue and Mets Merized Online. To keep up with Matt, you can follow him on Twitter.

 

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Grading New York Mets’ Moves so Far This Offseason

The New York Mets have been pretty active in free agency this winter. Despite that Matt Harvey will miss the 2014 MLB season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Sandy Alderson and the front office are moving ahead with their plan of infusing this roster with productive players to be competitive.

It’s been a painstaking process watching Alderson maneuver his way through the offseason since he joined the organization. Heading into this winter, the biggest free-agent signing he made was bringing in Frank Francisco on a two-year, $12 million deal.

Alderson has changed his tune, keeping his promise that money coming off the books from bad contracts would be reinvested in the major league roster. Not all of the money from the Johan Santana and Jason Bay savings has been spent yet, but New York is showing its willingness to once again hand out multi-year contracts.

Let’s take a look at New York’s report card with the moves it has made so far this offseason.

 

Statistics and advanced metrics from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, respectively. Contract information from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. All transactions sourced from Mets.com unless otherwise noted.

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Two New York Mets Outfield Prospects to Watch in 2014

Sandy Alderson has retooled the New York Mets’ outfield for the 2014 season with the acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young. These look to be improvements from 2013, but he’ll have to once again revisit that part of the roster next winter.

Granderson signed a multi-year contract and will be in Flushing (if all goes well) through the 2017 season. However, Young inked a one-year agreement—if Juan Lagares (or Eric Young Jr.) work out next year, Alderson will need one player to fill that void, assuming Young isn’t re-signed.

Before scouring the free agent and trade markets, he should take a long look at two outfield prospects that could be on the cusp of being in the major leagues by the end of this season: Dustin Lawley and Cesar Puello.

Baseball America hasn’t tabbed either one of these prospects as one of the ten best in the organization, but the immediate future at Citi Field may include one of them manning a corner outfield spot.

Lawley was selected by New York in the 19th round of the 2011 MLB draft out of the University of West Florida. Since joining the organization, he’s displayed an ability to collect extra-base hits.

Through three seasons in the minors, Lawley owns a .266/.324/.481 line in 1,214 career at-bats. Out of his 323 career hits, 150 of them have gone for extra bases (89 doubles, 11 triples and 50 home runs). Approximately half the time he records a hit, he’s making the turn and going for extra bases.

Through 122 games in High-A with the St. Lucie Mets, he hit .260/.313/.512 with 25 home runs and 92 RBI. He won the Florida State League home run crown, as well as the player of the year honors. He then made a surprising jump—the Las Vegas 51s were in need of some help, and the organization promoted Lawley all the way to Triple-A.

As a 24-year-old with college baseball experience, he handled this change very well. He appeared in six games before the Pacific Coast League playoffs began, hitting .300/.333/.550.

It’s undetermined whether or not Lawley will be back in Vegas or head to Double-A to start the season. It was a small sample size with the 51s, but he’s proved he can handle the tougher competition. He’ll be turning 25 in April, and this is the perfect time to see what he’s made of.

Cesar Puello is in an entirely different situation. He was a highly regarded international free-agent signing in 2007. It wasn’t until this past year with the Binghamton Mets that he broke out and showed his true potential. The outfielder hit .326/.403/.547 with 16 home runs, 73 RBI and 24 stolen bases in 331 at-bats.

Puello’s 2013 was cut short because he had to serve a 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. This saga surrounded him most of the season, and it was impressive to see he could handle himself on the field while his immediate future was being determined off it.

There was never a question about his raw skills—it was whether or not the 22-year-old would ever put it all together over an entire season. He finally did with the B-Mets, but didn’t get to finish the year with the team or participate in the Eastern League playoffs because of his suspension.

He’s currently getting more at-bats in the Dominican Winter League, but the magic he had in Binghamton didn’t hop in his suitcase before traveling south. In 115 at-bats, Puello is hitting .200/.252/.261.

What is most concerning is that he’s drawn only five walks during that time. Puello hasn’t walked much since he joined the Mets in 2008 (100 walks drawn in 1,970 career minor league at-bats), but it continues to be a concern. He’s still young and will likely have more patience at the plate as he matures, but there will need to be tangible evidence.

The evidence was there in 2013 while working with B-Mets hitting coach Luis NateraPuello walked a career-high 7.4 percent of the time, compared to a 2.8 percent rate in 2012. That is legitimate progress, but it will need to be sustained in 2014 so it doesn’t look like an aberration.

With a relatively thin free-agent market in the outfield for next winter, it could pay great dividends for the Mets to find a solution internally. The standout seasons from Lawley and Puello in 2013 give the organization some options, but their performances this year are critical.

For Lawley, it will be a question as to whether or not he can handle that next level of competition for a prolonged period of time. It would be a waste to put him in Double-A to start the year—as we’ve seen, the Mets take it slow with promoting their prospects. If Lawley is going to have a chance at a September call-up, he needs to start 2014 in Vegas.

As for Puello, the biggest question will be whether or not his breakout season is something he can produce regularly. It was nice to see him put it all together in 2013, but can he do it repeatedly? Is he the player that performed from 2008 through 2012 or the one from last year? He’ll also need to continue improving his patience at the plate, which is an ongoing process.

Neither one of these prospects provide a clear answer to take Chris Young’s place in the outfield once his contract is up, but it gives the Mets some young, potentially productive and cheap options to consider and monitor throughout this season.

Player statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference. Winter League statistics courtesy of MLB.com. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Matt’s Mets opinion has been featured on MLB Trade Rumors, Yahoo! Sports, MetsBlog, Amazin‘ Avenue and Mets Merized Online. To keep up with Matt, you can follow him on Twitter.

 

 

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MLB Trade Rumors: Will Ike Davis Be with the New York Mets in 2014?

New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis has been the topic of various MLB trade rumors this offseason. The Mets must decide whether they want either him, Lucas Duda or someone else to be their starter at first base in 2014.

Coming off a season in which he hit 30 home runs, Davis has been drawing more trade interest than Duda.

Neither has shown enough to think that either should stick around in New York for 2014. I’d rather have a fresh face from outside the organization be the team’s first baseman next season. The probability of that happening, however, will likely depend on how the trade market develops later this winter.

After enduring a slow start in 2012, Davis rebounded in the second half, slugging 32 home runs with 90 RBI despite a .227 batting average. Manager Terry Collins expected on Davis to be the main source of power and protection in the Mets lineup behind David Wright in 2013.

Unfortunately for the Mets, that didn’t happen.

Davis finished the season with a .205/.326/.334 stat line to go with nine home runs and 33 RBI, as he spent nearly a month in Triple-A. New York may allow the market to decide whether it will hold onto Davis for another year, or hand over most of the playing time at first base to Duda.

At this point of the offseason, teams in need of a cheap power option at first base prefer Davis. Unlike Duda, he has shown the ability to be a productive source of power with his home run total from 2012. The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have most notably been linked to Davis and the Mets following the GM meetings last week.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times touched upon why the Rays would be interested in Davis:

But the Rays, who drafted but didn’t sign Davis in 2005, would have to be intrigued by the potential lefty power, plus getting three years of control and a somewhat reasonable cost — an arbitration projected $3.5 million salary. That’s about the same as Matt Joyce is to make, and the Mets seek a corner outfielder, though the Rays need lefty power.

Matt Joyce would be an interesting acquisition for the Mets. In 140 games during 2013, the corner outfielder hit .235/.328/.419 with 18 home runs and 47 RBI. He would provide some extra power in the Mets outfield, but would likely not be used more than as a fourth outfielder or utility man if this trade were to come about.

The Brewers are a more intriguing trade partner, especially if they make Norichika Aoki available. According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin recently acknowledged that his team would be a good fit for a potential swap with the Mets.

Aoki is due to become a free agent following the 2014 season, but would provide the Mets with a true leadoff hitter. The 31-year-old hit .286/.356/.370 last season, including eight home runs, 37 RBI, 80 runs scored and 20 stolen bases. He’s due to earn $1.95 million next season.

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York noted that the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles and Colorado Rockies have all expressed interest in Davis. It’s all but certain that he won’t be suiting up for the Mets next season. Alderson will likely hold onto his first baseman until later in the winter, when the market isn’t full of players with power potential.

Unless Alderson can pull off a miracle and pry Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez from Colorado, the Brewers seem to be the best fit for either side in a trade. Milwaukee would receive a relatively cheap option to fill its void at first base while Davis would bring a solid glove and great power potential that would become even more notable due to playing half his home games at Miller Park.

On the flip side, the Mets would get a true leadoff hitter with a knack for getting on base. In 1,117 career at-bats, Aoki has struck out 95 times while drawing 98 walks and boasts a .355 on-base percentage. Striking this kind of deal would save New York some money and allow the Mets spending more on a power hitting outfielder or shortstop elsewhere.

If the Mets front office is tired of giving Davis a chance to blossom into a consistent major league hitter, it needs to acquire a player who Collins can write into his lineup every day. If the Mets wait long enough, there will be a team desperate enough to give up something that it would prefer to hold on to in a potential exchange.

 

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