Kuzul

I have seen some rejoicing by Nats fans over Adam LaRoche’s new deal with the team. While two years at roughly eight million dollars each seems reasonable for him, I am not convinced he is as good an upgrade at first base as he is often regarded.

Two points stand in his favor: when compared to the departing Adam Dunn, LaRoche is not an atrocious fielder, and he hits for a decent average.

The second point is not really much of a point because LaRoche has been much worse at reaching base than Dunn throughout his career. In addition, swapping the two is more or less choosing between ten extra home runs or ten extra doubles, except the doubles guy doesn’t walk as much.

Both players have at least 3,800 plate appearances to their name (Dunn has over 6,000), so that’s enough of a sample size to simply be able to look at the two stats side by side. LaRoche’s .271 career average is 21 points higher than Dunn’s, but his OBP is .339 (42 points lower than Dunn). So, while LaRoche has been more likely to make contact with the ball and get on base that way, Dunn has been better overall at not making an out.

LaRoche has walked a little more than nine percent of the time in his career, a figure that spiked to around 10 percent when he was the only good hitter on the Pirates for almost three years. Dunn’s walk rate was a career-low 11.9 percent in 2010 though he has never really had any significant protection in a lineup. Dunn has five seasons of 100 or more unintentional walks. LaRoche only managed 60 walks twice in parts of seven seasons.

A lot of people might site Adam Dunn as someone who would have been pitched around a lot whereas Adam LaRoche probably would not have been. Both played for some bad teams. If pitchers were afraid of either of these hitters, there was often no reason to pitch to them. While LaRoche did tend to see a slightly higher percentage of pitches in the zone, he also tended to swing at more pitches out of the zone.

Percentage of pitches in strike zone from 2004 to 2010:

LaRoche: 56.4, 50.7, 50.7, 48.1, 49.9, 45.8, 44.8

Dunn: 51.9, 49.3, 48.7, 47.3, 45.5, 45.6, 41.4

For his career, LaRoche has seen 48.8 percent of his pitches in the zone. Dunn has seen 47.1 percent of his. This is not a significant enough difference to account for a difference of roughly eight percent in their career walk rates. So, I would conclude that both hitters have been pitched around a bit due to spending time on bad teams.

While Dunn clearly has the better eye, both strike out plenty. Last year, for the Diamondbacks, LaRoche struck out 172 times. Remind you of anyone?

As we know, making contact, even if it isn’t as likely to be a home run, still leaves open the possibility of making a productive out. So we cannot tip the scales entirely in Dunn’s favor. If the Nationals are able to get Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, and Ryan Zimmerman on base, Adam LaRoche may find himself in a lot of situations where he just needs a fly ball or a grounder to the right side.

So, while LaRoche has been better at making contact throughout his career, he hit only one point higher than Dunn in 2010. I do believe .260 was probably Dunn’s ceiling (and I put him down at .250 or so in 2011) and .261 is probably something of an off-year for LaRoche (I’d put him around .275) but this isn’t Ichiro vs. Andruw Jones.

Power-wise, the two just aren’t in the same class. Adam Dunn averaged just over 39 home runs over the past five years. LaRoche averaged just over 25. Both players were in their prime (they were born three days apart), and the difference in home ballparks probably can’t account for the entire fourteen home run difference.

Fangraphs tells me Adam Dunn is actually faster than Adam LaRoche. Neither should be expected to steal any non-defensive-indifference bases, but perhaps LaRoche is going to clog the bases even more than Dunn has. This is, perhaps, a minor complaint since both were brought in with the task of driving in Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond, not stealing bases.

The best thing about signing Adam LaRoche is his defense. Is that defense enough to outweigh the decline in offense? I guess we’ll have to see how 2011 pans out. In 2010, LaRoche’s defense was worth about 8 runs more than Dunn’s overall. His WAR was still lower, however.

The 2011 Washington Nationals look like an improved team when compared with their 2010 counterpart. Zimmerman-Werth-LaRoche is a nice trio for the middle of the lineup, and this team should finally crack the 70-win mark at least. I guess we can say that, if Dunn had to be lost (I don’t know that he did), LaRoche is not a horrible choice to replace him. But we shouldn’t be considering him an upgrade overall.

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This year’s hall of fame ballot may be underwhelming. The ballot doesn’t have any new surefire candidates. There is no one player people have been waiting to see elected. We’re caught between the Cal Ripkens and Tony Gwynn ceremony and the impending honoring of Frank Thomas and Greg Maddux. Who is going to get a plaque in the meantime.

I started following baseball in the mid nineties with only a faint understanding of what baseball statistics meant and no conception of intangibles or player value. A player was good if someone (most often my father) told me he was good. Even until recent years, I was no good at understanding players. I knew a .300 batting average was good. I knew a sub-3.00 ERA was good. I didn’t know that there was more to hitting and pitching. I didn’t know defense really mattered. I didn’t know anything and I didn’t have to. If you were any good you were wearing pinstripes and winning.

Now many of the players I grew up watching, but not really knowing, are appearing on the ballot and many are disappearing almost immediately. I don’t doubt that trend continues. The hall means more than being “good.” I’ve heard so many times before that you had to be “great” to be in the hall. But how great? Where is the line? Last year we saw Andre Dawson receive one of the highest honors that can be bestowed upon a human being. Did he deserve it? Did he deserve it more than anyone else that year? I am on the fence.

Those are the sort of questions I’m going to struggle with here. And, pretending that my opinion matters, I’ll give my votes for each of these players. I’m going to try to be fair, but I’m not going to try to predict anything.

Starting with guys who have spent the longest time on the ballot…

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I thought I’d take a look at which players had the best decade in several key areas of the game. I don’t really care who hit the most homers or had the highest batting average.

While those statistics are useful, they are talked about a bit too much at the expense of some others. So let’s take a look at some other things.

Note: my decade doesn’t include 2000.

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I could have sworn everyone was expecting Cliff Lee to go to the team that offered him the most money.  He was supposed to become the second highest-paid Yankee and the third most-overpaid Yankee.

Zack Greinke was supposed to be the consolation prize for the team that lost out on Cliff Lee. He was supposed to mesh well and find comfort with the young base in Texas.

The Yankees and Rangers were not longshots to meet again in October 2011.

But the road to October just got a bit rocky for these two teams.

The Yankees well-documented pitching flaws are legit and barring a resurgence of A.J. Burnett, they might find themselves competing with Tampa (and Oakland, and Texas, and Minnesota, and Chicago and maybe the Angels) for the wild card. Their problem could compound if CC Sabathia goes back on his word that he won’t exercise his opt-out clause next year.

The strongest teams have potent dual aces. No one gets by with an ace, a number three and Sergio Mitre.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are also without the ace that carried them to the playoffs. Their corps of number two starters—or worse—will not carry them far. CJ Wilson overachieved. Tommy Hunter is overrated. Scott Feldman’s career year is in the rear-view mirror. 

And the losses in Texas and New York have turned into gains in Boston, Oakland, L.A., and Tampa.

Boston’s list of 2010 offseason victories could fill a small newspaper. Brian Cashman’s hair will grow a little thinner and Nolan Ryan’s face will have new wrinkles come June, when the next major bidding war centers around Carlos Zambrano or Matt Garza.

Talented pitchers, yes, but not Lee or Greinke.

How did we so misunderstand Cliff Lee? He had nice things to say about the Yankees when he became a Ranger. Quotes popped up alluding to his desire for the most riches spread over the most years. One quote said that if one team offered him one dollar more than his next-highest offer, he would join them.

But he settled for $40,000,000 less and potentially one year less to become a Philly again.

And why shouldn’t he?

After all, comfort is key to performing on the field and having fun while doing so. The Phillies already had a near-brilliant rotation. He could join Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. That sounds a little better than Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes. And a little better than Lewis, Wilson, Hunter.

Actually, it sounds a lot better than both alternatives put together.

It seems as though everyone was expecting Cliff Lee to go to the team that offered him the most money and the most years. Did anyone doubt that would be the Yankees? Yet, Cliff Lee was sorely misunderstood and, in hindsight, maybe we should have seen something like this coming.

It took him a long time to make a decision.

There were some signals that he might not fit in with the Yankees. Rowdy fans spat on his wife during the playoffs. He responded sarcastically (and winningly) to Michael Kay calling it “childish” that Cliff Lee doesn’t change caps when the one he’s using begins to show wear.

The Yankee brass can be an uptight bunch and that could be offputting to a new player, especially one as laid back as Lee.

And at the end of the day, the childish ones were the Yankees. My beloved Yankees who, for far too long, have wielded a wallet stocked, devoid of common sense. This has been a team that chases the elite free agents and pays them handsomely, well after they are done being elite players. They too often fail to develop homegrown talent, chasing immediate glory time and time again.

This time they lost. Twice.

One lesson to take from this is that some people are underwhelmed with the luster of pinstripes. That is a lesson we all should have learned long ago, but Cliff Lee serves as a reminder.

Zack Greinke should serve as a reminder that some people may be overwhelmed by the stripes. The Yankees pulled the plug on negotiations with the Royals for fear that Greinke might not be able to handle the spotlight.

Maybe they were right. He did miss a year due to extreme anxiety.

But let’s not jump to the conclusion that the Yankees are doomed.

Their lineup can still mash with the best of them. It is a lineup without holes, an offensive force whose greatest need is someone to back up the regulars—a need that will easily be filled. They have one of the top pitchers in the game already. They have one of the best relief pitchers ever.

They will win 90 games this year and still might call it a failure.

Anyway, Cliff Lee is human and can be beaten. Zack Greinke was a mere mortal in 2010. In three years Cliff Lee will be a very rich Andy Pettitte-type pitcher. No one cowers at the thought of facing Pettitte, as good a pitcher as he still is.

Over the next couple of years, however, the Phillies and Brewers have signed up for meaningful games in September.

The Phillies should bulldoze their way over their division rivals. They are still stronger than the Braves, barring mammoth seasons by Uggla and Heyward, and head and shoulders above the other three teams.

The Brewers should be able to hang with the Reds, but might not be able to catch St. Louis. What we do know is that they will make a run at the NL Central title and that means more work for the Cardinals. More work for the Reds. It means the Cubs and Astros are even further away.

And it means a very lucky Zack Greinke will get to face Pittsburgh two or three times.

Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke did not simply realign the NL Central race and make the Phillies the team to beat in the NL.

It represented a shift away from the allure of the almighty dollar and the proven winners. The best pitcher available chose old friends, good times, and the best rotation in baseball over an overstuffed Yankee contract. The second best pitcher in baseball wound up in a destination no one expected and now probably feels stupid because it’s nearly a perfect fit for him.

Funny how things worked out.

I know I’m going to think twice before I convince myself where the next big free agent is going to wind up.

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Adrian Beltre picked a good time to become a free agent and a good year to produce like an elite offensive force. Of course we’ve seen this before. Teams should be scared to offer Beltre anything close to the deals given to elite hitters so far this offseason. Beltre has not been especially consistent over his career, though he does play exceptional defense and can be counted on for 25 home runs of so wherever he plays.

Most teams appear to be set at third base or can expect the continued development of a younger player to fill the role. Of the few teams that make sense for Beltre, several of them seem unlikely because of financial issues, the type of home ballpark, or just because he doesn’t seem to fit in with the type of team they are. Nevertheless here are six interesting destinations for Beltre and one that seems especially likely and necessary.

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The Mariners were bad behind the plate in 2010. In fact, they were sub-par in every position except right field. Miguel Olivo was recently signed to a two-year deal by the team to be their everyday catcher. The deal is worth $7,000,000—a reasonable figure considering his ability to call a game. Offensively, however, he is barely an upgrade over the trio of backstops who butchered the position for most of Seattle’s 2010 season.

Most of the playing time went to 26-year-old Adam Moore. He hit .195 in 218 plate appearances. He walked only eight times and was on pace for about 180 strikeouts. His defense was worth one run below replacement level.

Rob Johnson spent a lot of time behind the dish for the Mariners as well. Johnson hit .191 but is a better offensive player than Moore. Both were hit by bad luck on their batting averages on balls in play, but Johnson was hit slightly harder. While Adam Moore might be a 12-15 home run guy if he can learn discipline, Rob Johnson was on pace for only about six home runs. Park effect notwithstanding, those are paltry power numbers.

Rob Johnson’s 12 percent walk rate was better than the team’s 2010 average of 8.5 percent. He strikes out a lot too, but not as much as Adam Moore.

Josh Bard also caught 39 games for the team. Bard is somewhere between Adam Moore and Rob Johnson in terms of talent. His career .256 average is underwhelming but he has shown good plate discipline in his best years, though he now appears to be in decline. After posting a .214/.276/.357 line, he will be lucky to sign a major-league deal for 2011.

Miguel Olivo is like a band-aid that only covers half of the wound. He won’t hit for average as his career .246 mark attests. He cannot take a walk and will strike out a lot. His career walk rate is 4.1 percent. Compare that to the league average which tends to be somewhere between eight and nine percent. While the average hitter strikes about 20 percent of the time, Olivo’s K-rate tends to be closer to 30 percent.

His reputation as a power hitter will depend on whether he can stay in the lineup long enough to hit 15 home runs. 15 is probably his ceiling, given the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field. Good defense will help him stay in the lineup.

Defensively, Olivo will be a huge upgrade for the Mariners. In fact, that defense makes his contract worth it to me. If you just consider the offense you have to question whether Olivo deserves a major-league job, but believe it or not, this was a smart deal for the Mariners to make. The pool of available catchers, which lost Victor Martinez early in the offseason, is strikingly poor. The remaining options are Bengie Molina, Gregg Zaun, Gerald Laird, Matt Treanor, Henry Blanco and Chad Moeller.

The best option for anyone in need of a catcher is probably Bengie Molina, traded from the Giants to the Rangers months before the two teams met in the World Series. Molina is just two years removed from a 20 home run season, but has seen his batting average drop in each of the past two seasons. He has always struggled to get on base, and has lost much of his power.

Gregg Zaun has struggled to stay healthy and he approaches his fortieth birthday next April. While he has been slightly above average in the OBP department, he does little else and cannot be counted on.

Gerald Laird hit .218 over the last two seasons with nine home runs in a little more than one seasons’ worth of at bats. Finally, Matt Treanor, Henry Blanco, and Chad Moeller spent 2010 affirming why they are career backups. They can’t hit, but catching is not an easy job, so they remain employed.

Defense distinguishes Miguel Olivo. His offense is probably going to be a detriment to the team unless he finds the power he showed in 2009. But, it makes sense for the Mariners, who have money, to pay $3.5 million a year for his services over the next couple of years. The alternatives are even worse.

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Continuing my periodic ranting and raving about the current free agent class, I have come to Adam Dunn.

Mr. Dunn, power hitter extraordinaire, earned a four year deal with the Chicago White Sox a week ago.

Deal He Got: Four years, $14 million/year

Deal He Should Have Got: what he got seems about right

The combination of power and the ability to get on base puts Dunn in an elite class of power hitters. Sure, he doesn’t hit for high average.

The colossal strikeout numbers and snails-pace speed prevent that, but seven consecutive seasons of no less than 38 home runs are nothing to gloss over.

On bad teams Dunn has repeatedly knocked in between 100 to 110 runs. On a White Sox team that can be expected to compete in 2011, I can see him reaching 120.

Hitting in front of Dunn will be Juan Pierre, Alexei Ramirez and Paul Konerko. Pierre and Ramirez are good hitters with average on base skills. Konerko is a very good all around hitter, so Dunn should find himself in position to knock these guys in.

He’ll be protected in the lineup by some pop in the form of Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin. Dayan Viciedo could make an appearance in that lineup as well, but I think he could stand to take a few more walks. He should learn that in the minors.

The offensive Achilles heel for Dunn is his strikeouts.

He whiffs in nearly one third of his at bats. Only two players with 200+ plate appearances in 2010 had higher K-rates than Dunn. They were Jack Cust and Mark Reynolds. Similar players, but neither as good as Dunn.

We may have some reason to be concerned about the future. His strikeout rate in 2010 was 35.7 percent, higher than ever before. His walk rate was down to 11.9 percent, lower than ever before but still above average.

What’s worrisome is that this is almost two standard deviations below his average walk rate in his career.

This decline in walks may be due to some systematic factor such as a change in Dunn’s mechanics, a change in the type of pitching he faced (unlikely) or a change in his health status (doubtful).

Or maybe he’s leaving his prime years behind. The changes in these ratios appear too great to be random noise, but Dunn’s ability to draw a walk and get on base is still respectable. He will probably continue to show good discipline for the next few years.

This pitching in the NL East is arguably better than what Dunn can expect to face in the American league central. He should have no trouble hitting .260 next year and getting on base at a clip of .360 or so.

I doubt the White Sox were thinking much about the .260 average when they signed Dunn. We all know he’s as close to a sure thing to hit 35 or more home runs. That consistent power is what makes him an attractive hitter. Above and beyond most power hitters.

U.S. Cellular Field, where the White Sox play their home games, is actually quite similar to Nationals Park. The only significant differences are that U.S. Cellular’s center field wall is 9 feet closer to home plate, the right field wall down the line is two feet closer, and 2 feet deeper in right-center. Adam Dunn isn’t really a pull hitter, except for when he hits ground balls, which should make him suitable for hitting in any environment.

Adam Dunn is usually good for about 30 runs below average in the field, whether he’s at first base or in the outfield. Spending some time at DH will help maximize his value, and is almost certainly what Ozzie Guillen is planning.

With Paul Konerko set to return, Dunn could be looking at his most productive year overall because he won’t be causing any harm in the field.

Overall Dunn is an extremely consistent hitter with exceptional power. He manages to stay relevant by getting on base often enough for teams to allow his extreme power to remain in the lineup.

While power bats like Marcus Thames or Wilson Betemit are unsuitable for regular playing time due to a lack of consistent plate discipline or contact, Dunn had managed to keep the batting average reasonable and the walks plentiful.

The mark of a good power hitter is to be just good enough at other things to keep his power in the lineup, and Dunn’s ability to do this makes him worth $56 million over four years.

There is no question that Dunn essentially replacing Mark Kotsay provides a huge offensive boost. I don’t know if this puts the White Sox ahead of the Twins next year, but it’s a good signing nonetheless. If Minnesota gets a healthy Justin Morneau back next year, the AL Central will be a very interesting race.

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According to Luke Scott, “Obama does not represent America.”

This article is not an ideological rant or a political statement. That is just the sort of thing that baseball does not need, and it is what Luke Scott provided in his recent “Answer Man” interview on Yahoo! Sports.

For those who missed it and those who won’t click this link, In an interview, Baltimore Orioles outfielder, Luke Scott was talking about some recent hunting trips he’d taken. He was then asked about gun control and responded about communism and socialism.

Next he was asked about Barack Obama and went on to talk about how America is losing its values. Shortly thereafter he was asked, “You don’t believe Obama was born here do you?” To which he replied, “He wasn’t born here,” and provided a short rant about how Obama is obviously hiding something.

The next day his team publicly distanced itself from Scott’s opinions, and there was a small uproar amongst baseball fans on forums across the Internet. Undoubtedly, there are many baseball lovers who see no problem with what Scott said.

One thing needs to be made clear. Luke Scott did not pull a Kanye. He didn’t grab the mic and rant. He was being interviewed, and he didn’t impose his beliefs on anyone, because anyone reading was expecting to hear from the depths of Luke Scott’s mind.

That’s generally the point of interviews. He was asked a question, and his response was not completely irrelevant to the question(s) he was asked. It was still wrong though.

The game is pure in the sense that it unites people who play it, watch it and love it. It makes us forget politics, and at its best, makes us forget what divides us and angers us. We don’t need to know very much about the players as people. In fact, often we don’t care.

Politics seems so at odds with baseball. Baseball, or a majority of its fans at least, reject personality. The only values that are relevant are those relating to what you do on the field.

Fans respect a “team first” mentality. We respect players who sacrifice their sweat and blood for their team. Talent is never enough. Heart goes a long way.

Don’t let the abundance of advertisements fool you. MLB is not an MTV reality show. Alex Rodriguez learned this the hard way. This year, young pitchers jumped at the opportunity to board the anti-A-Rod train. [I don’t care what Dallas Braden says, he would not have yelled at his mom for walking across his pitcher’s mound.]

Anger is not a welcome sentiment among players. Milton Bradley has bounced from team to team because of his constant altercations with teammates, management and fans. We love players who play with intensity and with passion, but the best of them leave it on the field.

They don’t take that out into their public life. They have two identities, the baseball player and the person. Often we care only about the first. In the case of Milton Bradley, the message from baseball’s higher-ups is clear. They will only tolerate so much.

It’s amazing how well I tend to think I know a player based on a page full of numbers. I can look at the raw stats; I can look at their progression over time; I can read the scouts’ assessments. Never do I wonder what’s on the player’s iPod, what he ate for dinner, what he thinks of the New York City public school system, etc. It’s all about what the player has done on the field and what he will do on the field next spring.

The Baltimore Orioles immediately made it clear that they did not endorse Scott’s comments. When a team goes as far as to make a public statement about something a player said, that means something.

It means they don’t want to hear divisive statements. They don’t want to be associated with such talk. They’re about baseball. That’s it. Check everything else at the door. Especially things that might become a distraction.

Someone in the front office wishes Scott had kept his mouth shut. It’s not because anyone thinks what Scott says will have any lasting affect on our nation. It’s because it changes the tone around the organization.

The Orioles clubhouse does not need distractions. The Orioles organization does not need that sort of climate hovering about it. An air of controversy hangs over outspoken ballplayers.

His right to speak freely is not in question.

I come down hard on baseball players who I think act childish or show disrespect for the game. I lost respect for Brandon Phillips when he created fire between his Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals by ranting about how much he hates them. I lost respect for Nyjer Morgan in August after he started behaving like a frat boy at a kegger.

Luke Scott has now become a polarizing player. A solid hitter, like himself, generally earns a degree of respect if not outright adoration based on his play. There is a contingent who will readily stand behind Scott. Some will agree wholeheartedly with his comments and put him on a pedestal for having the courage to speak up.

Luke Scott is a man who used to bring a gun to baseball games. He makes acceptable points about guns being a potential mode of protection. Something is off there.

What did he need protection from in Houston? Was Roger Clemens trying to sleep with his sister? What could he possibly need protection from at Oriole Park? There aren’t enough fans in the stands to storm the field.

Throwing a baseball to another human being is one of the most communicative exercises one can engage in. In its purest form, personality is utterly removed from the equation. One element of teamwork is being on the same page, being unified. Strong ideological differences could stand in the way of that. It helps when strong personalities are left out of the picture.

Make no mistake, Luke Scott has the right to say what he wants. We aren’t debating freedom of speech. We all deserve to say what we want, but the caveat is that there are things we should and should not say in certain situations. There is no room in this game for grand, divisive political statements.

And, it doesn’t help that the editor of the very article who printed the original conversation went out of his way to show some of Scott’s “opinions” are anti-factual.

Things like this that make me look past the stats and skills for a moment. I don’t want to, but I can’t help it. The realization that I might not like these people as human beings adds an odd dynamic to this game that I love.

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Deal He Got: 7 years, 18 million/year

Deal He Should Have Got: 5 years, 12 million/year

Jayson Werth is a classic late bloomer, and that’s less worrisome for a hitter than it is for a pitcher when you hear talk of nine-digit contracts. He is a five tool player, although not especially flashy in any of the five tools. Werth does everything at an above average level.

His .296 batting average in 2010 was a bit of a fluke. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .352 hints towards some luck, and he’s probably more of a .270 guy like we saw the two previous years.

The Washington Nationals are paying for the .296 (among other things), but let’s be realistic: he’s a fine hitter, but not a great one, at least in terms of making contact with the ball. That .296 went a long way to the widespread perception that Jayson Werth has superstar talent. One scout went so far as to claim Werth is a better player than Matt Holliday, which is ludicrous.

Werth’s power is very real, however, and his 0.81 ground ball to fly ball ratio is encouraging. His 87 home runs over three seasons also looks good, although there may not be a better hitting environment than Citizen’s Bank Park. In comparison, Nationals Park is 3 feet deeper down the left field line, 8 feet deeper to center, and 5 feet deeper down the right field line.

A few feet here and there do matter. A quick look at his hit chart (on MLB.com) shows that about 11 of his home runs hit at home over the years might not have left Nationals Park. This changes a lot because, while he has legitimate power to all fields, it’s probably legitimate low-20s HR power in 2011.

A 53/60 success rate in steal attempts is especially impressive, because now we can pin the “speed/power combination” label on Werth. It seems unlikely to me that Werth will accumulate much more than his previous career high in steals, which was twenty. He probably was not signed as a base stealer, so the speed is a nice bonus. It isn’t a key selling point, like it is for Carl Crawford, as Werth’s defense is decent and he possesses an above average arm with good range.

I’m a bit of a plate-discipline junkie, so Werth’s value is a bit higher in my eyes than it might have been in others’. Only eleven hitters swung at fewer pitches out of the zone in 2010, although Werth also swung at a below-average percentage of pitches in the strike zone. As a result, he runs up the strikeouts and the walks.

Werth’s discipline is both a blessing and a curse. His strikeout rate is almost in the red as it is, so hopefully it doesn’t get too much worse. That said, Jayson Werth brings enough power, discipline, and speed to the table to be rightfully ranked as one of the top ten free agents of 2010.

I like Jayson Werth quite a bit. Like Carl Crawford, he’s a well rounded hitter who would have helped any team in 2011. Certainly less flashy than Crawford, Werth is arguably more valuable, especially if he keeps the walks coming.

The Nationals have picked up a quality all around player. They may not be thrilled to employ a 38-year old Jayson Werth, but he has the talent to be very productive.

One hitch in the team’s plan is that they have now become extremely right-handed, but talks about their bright future are founded. Werth brings a veteran presence to a young ball club, and will fit in nicely.

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Deal He Will Get: Seven years, $18 million/year

Deal He Should Get: Five years, $10 million/year

Everyone knows Carl Crawford is an elite hitter in this year’s free-agent class. That isn’t saying a whole lot, but the talents he has going for him are legitimate. His consistency in the batting average department speaks to a true ability to hit for average. Over 8.5 seasons in Tampa, his average fell within the .280 to .315 range seven times, failing to do so only in 2002 and 2008. Those also happened to be the two seasons he missed significant playing time.

In 2002, he debuted and played in 63 games, hitting .259. In 2008, he missed about a third of the season with injuries and hit .273. Other than that, the consistency has been remarkable. He topped the .300-mark five times. Part of this is due to his exceptional speed, which is perhaps his most noteworthy talent.

Speed is probably what most teams will have in mind when offers are constructed north of $100 million. His speed is legitimate and his base-stealing smarts are too, with 409 steals and only 90 caught-stealings placing him amongst the elite speedsters. Of the 14 players who stole 200 or more bases since 2002, Crawford ranks fourth in terms of success rate.

His 81.96 percent success rate was topped only by Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon, each of whom has at least 100 fewer steals over that time period. Among these top speedsters, only Ichiro has a better batting average than Crawford’s .296. The only player anywhere near Crawford’s stolen base total is Juan Pierre. Pierre hits a home run once every 447.3 at-bats, while Crawford hits one per 48.

Perhaps Crawford’s one Achilles heel has been his lack of plate discipline. His career OBP of .337 is pretty average. Since he has hit for good batting averages, most of that OBP comes from hits. However, there is evidence that Crawford is learning discipline. His walk rates over the past three years have been 6.2 percent, 7.6 percent and 6.9 percent, having never topped six percent previously. One explanation is that pitchers have started to pitch around him, but that seems unlikely. Crawford was an established star well before 2008 and Tampa’s lineup was hardly fearsome before then.

Fangraphs’ swing percentage statistics show Crawford to be swinging at fewer pitches over recent years, though the percent of pitches out of the zone he’s swung at has actually increased. He’s also showing a lower percentage of swinging strikes, a greater percentage of out-of-the-zone swings and a greater contact rate on pitches out of the zone.

The explanation is that Crawford has been walking more and striking out more. The onset of “old-player skills” is beginning, though his plate discipline is getting better only marginally.

Speed and batting average are often thought of as “young-player skills,” and many of the best hitters of recent generations have shifted from high-average/good-speed guys to high-OBP/good discipline guys. I think that’s what Crawford will need to do to stay elite into his late 30s, and there is evidence that he’s begun to drift in that direction. As he gets older (he turns 30 late next season) he may shift further in that direction, but his defense will probably get worse (as might his speed). Years wear on guys’ legs, and Crawford owes a lot to his legs, but he plays the field very well currently and that should continue in the coming seasons.

Based on all of this, Carl Crawford should expect to be paid comparably to what Ichiro makes or what Jose Reyes should be making, or a tick below what Hanley Ramirez would get on the market. Reyes makes about $6.5 million per year. Hanley makes almost $12 million per year. I think that’s about what Crawford is worth now, and I think, given the market, he will probably get about that, or even a little more in this year’s paltry class.

He can also use Jayson Werth’s recent signing as leverage, and teams will not only be paying for Carl Crawford, but they will be paying to not have to employ Andruw Jones, Melky Cabrera or Manny Ramirez. Though the GM insistent on adding speed to his outfield can always give Corey Patterson a call.

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