Kuzul

ADP data can be one of the most useful items of information you can have at your draft.

Not only will you afford yourself the knowledge of knowing who you can and can’t grab later, but you’ll also find hidden gems that the rest of the fantasy baseball community are letting slip too far.

It is these gems we will focus on in this article as I lay out my All Forgotten Team.

C: Russell Martin (257):

Starting catcher for the Yankees currently going off the board as the No. 19 catcher? I think there is some upside here.

I have Martin as my No. 13 catcher. While I don’t think he’ll put up top numbers, I think he’ll do just fine at pick 257.

Riddle me why Jesus Montero is going off the board before him.

2011 Projection: .260/50/7/45/10

Honorable Mention: Chris Iannetta (266); J.P. Arencibia (302); Jarod Saltalamacchia (353)

1B: Lance Berkman (263):

Sure, he doesn’t deserve the title “Big Puma” anymore, but a 27th round pick?

A starting outfielder batting near Pujols and Holliday will surely be useful, even in shallow leagues.

Berkman could surprise and what’s the risk taking him with your last pick, since most last picks are dropped throughout the season?

2011 Projection: .270/65/15/75/0

Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman (283); Mitch Moreland (335); Matt LaPorta (339); Kila Ka’aihue (349); Justin Smoak (362); Brett Wallace (372)

2B: Neil Walker (277):

Um, this guy had a pretty decent season last year and now he’s the No. 21 second baseman off the board?

I think there is plenty of upside here to put up numbers comparable to a guy you’d have to take in the first third of the draft. Sure, he’s on the Pirates, but they will score plenty of runs this year.

2011 Projection: .280/75/15/75/5

Honorable Mention: Tsuyoshi Nishioka (298); Dustin Ackley (320); Danny Espinosa (336)

3B: Chase Headley (269):

Not a powerful guy, but I think Chase will be serviceable this season.

The Friars’ lineup is beyond dreadful, but the former second round pick could surprise in the power department this year—his steals are an added bonus.

2011 Projection: 270/75/15/60/15

Honorable Mention: Chris Johnson (296); Edwin Encarnacion (308); David Freese (348)

SS1: Yunel Escobar (318):

It was a rough year last year, but he did hit much better after heading to the Jays.

He has pretty decent plate discipline, so he should always be able to get on base and produce runs. 

The Jays’ lineup will allow him to do so.

2011 Projection: .280/70/10/60/5

SS2: Jhonny Peralta (253): Ok, not a sexy pick, but in that Tiger lineup he should have more than enough chances to produce runs.

2008 was not that long ago when he went .276/104/23/89/3 and he will be just 28-years-old to start the 2011 season.

There is 20+ HR power potential in that bat.

2011 Projection: .255/65/15/85/0

OF: Ryan Raburn (260):

What else must I say about this guy, for crying out loud?

2011 Projection: Just read!

Honorable Mention: Coco Crisp (265); Austin Jackson (272); Nate McLouth (338); David Murphy (354)

SP: Mike Minor (254):

I am predicting Minor to be the NL’s ROY this year, so I am very pleased to see him this far down in drafts. His 12K effort in Wrigley last year was a flash of what he could do. 

A decent K guy with stellar minor league numbers (10.94K/9 & 6.9H/9) spells upside—actually, no it doesn’t.

Just grab the guy. Trust me.

2011 Projection: 12-8/3.75/1.25/160

Honorable Mention: Edinson Volquez (256); Jake Peavy (294); Bud Norris (311); Erik Bedard (340); Michael Pineda (347)

RP: Leo Nunez (316):

The closer in Florida is getting NO LOVE.

He’s averaged 28 saves the past two seasons and last year, he dropped his ERA by half a run.

The eight blown saves aren’t pretty, but hey, it’s the 32nd round!

2011 Projection: 3.50/1.25/70/30

Honorable Mention: Jonny Venters (312); Jon Rauch (388)

Mike is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio and iTunes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner: two outfielders with similar make-up, playing for the enemy and being drafted approximately 110 picks apart.

If Ellsbury is going off the board as the No. 18 OF, should Gardner really be the No. 44 OF off the board?

Let’s first examine their last full seasons:

• 2009 Ellsbury (Age 25) in 693 PAs: .301/94 R/8 HR/60 RBI/49 BB/70 SB (81 percent of the time from the leadoff position)
• 2010 Gardner (Age 26) in 569 PAs: .277/97 R/5 HR/47 RBI/79 BB/47 SB (20 percent of the time from the leadoff position—59 percent of the time from the eight or nine-hole)

If you want to extrapolate Gardner’s plate appearances for a finer comparison, have at it:

• Ellsbury: .301/94 R/8 HR/60 RBI/49 BB/70 SB
• Gardner: .277/118 R/6 HR/57 RBI/96 BB/57 SB

Wow—we’re pretty much looking at very similar players if they get equal plate appearances.

This argument holds even more water for 2011 since Ellsbury will most likely be batting in the lower half of the Red Sox lineup—much like Gardner—although the NY Daily News is reporting otherwise.

We’ll just have to wait and see, but let’s assume they will get equal plate appearances in 2011.

My 2011 Projections give the slight edge to Ellsbury, unless your league counts walks, in which case I would then rank them equally:

• Ellsbury .290/95/10/55/60
• Gardner .280/100/5/50/50

Why not pass on Ellsbury, wait eight or nine rounds later and take Brett Gardner who will give you similar stats at a fraction of the price?

That’s what I’m doing in drafts.

Red Sox fans—you might want to swallow some pride and follow suit. This is your fantasy baseball team we’re talking about!

Go ahead. I won’t tell.

Mike is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last week ,we went over Logan Morrison (here).

This week, we take a look at Mike Aviles of the Kansas City Royals.

Aviles burst onto the scene in 2008 as a 27 year old, spending most of his time at SS for the Royals. In his 419 partial season at-bats, he hit .325/68/10/51/8 and was tagged as a potential breakout player for the 2009 season.

Unfortunately, 2009 saw Aviles undergo Tommy John surgery after just 36 games.

He entered 2010 as a question mark, but picked right back up where he left off in May of ’09, going .304/63/8/32/14 in 424 at-bats.

Without a poor June, he had a .323 average, which was similar to what he did over the course of 2008.

Even after missing a year, Aviles was pretty much the same player he was before the injury. Of course, he stole six more bases but knocked in 19 fewer runs.

This being the “September Stars” Series, let’s now examine what Mike Aviles did last September to warrant his selection this week.

In 24 games, Aviles went .357/20/6/14/6 to top off one of his best months statistically as a pro. In that time, he spent most of his time in the two-hole and benefited from no one being on base in front of him so he could begin to rack up the steals. 

That explains his increase in runs and steals, but what about the power surge?

Aviles’ fly-ball percentage actually dipped in that time, so the remedy? The Cleveland Indians’ pitching.

They served up four of his six homers that month (Oakland gave up the other two and not one of the six pitchers was a Cy Young hopeful).

When looking at his GB/FB/LD ratios over that final month, he had a spike in the number of line drives he hit, which was more in line with his 2008 season, when he hit 27 doubles compared to the 16 he had all of last year. Of those 16 doubles, five of them came in September.

When you extrapolate that September, his doubles were much in line with his 2008 season.

As the season wound down, Aviles’ GB/FB/LD percentages began to even out to his 2008 percentages. What does this mean for 2011?

In my opinion, Aviles will put up similar doubles numbers, but his power will not extrapolate at six a month to equal 36 for 2011.

This year, he’s slated to lead off, which means his number of steals should continue to climb, as he has shown the ability to run. His walk percentage has increased while his strikeout percentage has decreased, which bodes well for setting the table for the team with the second-best team batting average in all of baseball last year (.274).

His BABIP last year was .327, down from his .357 in 2008, so his batting average has some upside.

If Mike Aviles is eligible at SS in your league, he is a late-round gem. If not, remain patient, as his healing elbow could get him some time at SS this season.

In 2010, he batted .320 with the bases empty and .404 with none on and none out, which he’ll be doing at least once a game this season.

My 2011 Mike Aviles Projection (Ceiling): .325/100/15/50/25.

Those stats would’ve made Aviles the No. 3 SS last season and the No. 4 2B. “That’s gold, Jerry!”

Aviles is currently 10-for-20 this spring with nine runs and four steals.

Our fifth 2011 Nomination coming up: Daniel Hudson.

Previous “September Stars” include Logan Morrison, Ryan Raburn, Drew Stubbs and Jose Bautista.

Mike is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com