Kuzul

I certainly didn’t see this coming.

There was no way that the Phillies could sign Cliff Lee.  While a lot of Phillies fans may have had it in the back of their minds as a wonderful fantasy scenario, most of us were sure that it wasn’t going to happen. 

As I’ve said before, the only team that would make a move like this is the Yankees, and the Phillies are not the Yankees.  Sure, they’ve spent a lot of money in recent years, but you kept hearing their front office talk about payroll limits and financial flexibility, which are terms you never hear  in the Bronx.

But then you wake up one morning, turn on SportsCenter to see that the Phillies have signed Cliff Lee, and you joyously realize that your team will not let money stand in the way of obtaining a player that they want.

To be fair, they did sign Lee for below market value.  He is passing up higher offers from the Yankees and the Rangers.  One rumored offer from the Yankees is said to be worth $30 million more than what the Phillies offered him.  So it isn’t like they simply outpriced the competition as the Yankees were attempting to do.

This does re-raise the question as to why the Phillies traded him in the first place.

The main reason the Phillies gave for trading him was a desire to re-stock their farm system.  On recent years, they had traded away several top prospects in various deals.  Due to this, their system was a bit depleted, and they saw trading Lee as an easy way to remedy that.

Most people didn’t fully believe this explanation, mostly because the prospects they received in exchange for Lee were underwhelming. 

The Mariners gave up pitchers Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez, along with outfielder Tyson Gillies.  None of them appeared to be a can’t-miss prospect, and they all had disappointing 2010 seasons.

Since the prospect haul wasn’t overwhelming, most people figured that the deal had to be about money.  Lee would be a free agent after the 2010 season, and reports were that he was looking to get the biggest deal that he could.

The Phillies—who up until yesterday had an informal policy of never giving a pitcher a contract longer than four years—didn’t think that they’d be able to match what Lee would get on the open market.  Supposedly, they had offered Lee a hefty extension last year (although reportedly less than what he eventually received), and they were rejected.

They were then faced with the prospect of both Lee and outfielder Jayson Werth hitting freee agency after the 2010 season.  Both would be among the most coveted free agents, and both would be sure to receive large new contracts.  (And as we’ve seen, this did indeed happen.) 

The Phillies would then have holes in both their pitching rotation and lineup.  So they decided to preemptively address one of the issues by trading for Roy Halladay and dealing away Lee.  Halladay had expressed a desire to come to Philadelphia, and to prove it, he signed a contract extension for significantly less than he would have been expected to get in free agency.

After the trade, Lee expressed disappointment.  He had hoped to remain in Philadelphia and thought that there was significant progress being made towards a contract extension.  Most people believed that he did want to stay in Philadelphia, but not to the point where he’d take a below market deal similar to Halladay’s. 

As it turns out, Lee was telling the truth.  He really did want to stay in Philadelphia. 

While I’m happy about the signing, there are a few concerns with the deal.

While Lee isn’t seen as an injury risk, they are paying him a lot of money into his 30s.  Even the best conditioned pitchers can have injury problems as they get older. 

Look at the contract the Mets gave Johan Santana a few years ago.  Like Lee, he was considered one of the best pitchers in baseball and seemed like a good risk.  But he has suffered from injuries the past couple of seasons, and his contract now seems like a tremendous burden on the Mets payroll.

Of course, the fact that the Phillies have four ace-level pitchers on their staff mitigates the injury risk of each one, somewhat.  Even if Lee gets hurt, they can still rely on Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

Signing Lee also doesn’t help the fact that the Phillies are an aging team.  Their core is all in their 30s, and some of their players are showing signs of decline.  Most people thought that the Phillies would look to get younger, not older.

On the other hand, since the team is aging, and the window for contention is supposedly closing, it makes sense to sign Lee and try to win a championship now.  As the Phillies well know, championship-caliber talent doesn’t come around that often, so you’d better try to win when you have the chance.

I’m also slightly worried that Phillies fans have mythologized Lee a bit.  His 2009 postseason was excellent, but he also was a bit shaky in September of that season.  And as the Yankees showed in the most recent World Series, he can be beaten in the postseason.  His presence alone does not guarantee a title.

So now that Lee is once again a Phillie, what have we learned?

1. When it comes to baseball rumors, don’t believe anything until it is official

Oftentimes, rumors are started by agents or team officials just to put pressure on the other party in negotiations.  Until you hear an official announcement, it’s almost impossible to know just what to believe.

Up until yesterday, everyone thought that Lee would sign with either the Yankees or Rangers.  The Phillies weren’t even thought of as a possibility.  And remember that nobody seemed to have any clue that Werth would sign with the Nationals, either.

2. Sometimes it really isn’t all about the money

Obviously Lee is not being underpaid.  He’s still going to be one of the highest paid players in baseball.  But he didn’t take the highest contract available, either.  Lee wanted to play for the Phillies, so that’s where he signed.

As the phrase goes, money talks and bulls**t walks.  Many times players say they want to stay somewhere but end up following the money.  It’s nice to see that Lee actually stuck by what he said.

He certainly didn’t seem to want to go to the Yankees, despite the money they were willing to pay him.  I’m sure the fact that Yankees fans spit on his wife during a playoff game didn’t exactly endear the New York fanbase to him.

And for whatever reason, he didn’t seem to want to stay with the Rangers, either, despite making it to the World Series with them. 

I’m sure his agent isn’t as happy as he could be.  There are rumors that his agent was the one pushing the idea that Lee wanted to be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.  But maybe if the agent hadn’t pushed that idea, Lee never would have left Philadelphia to begin with.

3. It’s good to be a fan of a big market team. 

You can’t simply buy a World Series title, but having a lot of money to spend is a huge help.

Baseball teams are divided into several financial classes.  There are some small-market teams with very limited financial resources.  These teams can’t afford to pay for expensive free agents, and they expect to lose their stars once they hit free agency. 

Teams like this can only hope to contend by developing good young players and hope that they all mature around the same time.  Unfortunately for them, this is rare, and the small market teams will often go long stretches between playoff seasons. 

Even when it happens, the window for contention is limited for the poor teams.  Those young players eventually become free agents and go looking for a large contract which their team can not match.  The team must either trade them for prospects before that happens or risk losing them for nothing.

For an example, see the recent Tampa Bay Rays teams.  Their young core matured to the point where they were contenders for a few seasons, but now they are starting to lose players.  Outfielder Carl Crawford recently signed with the Red Sox, and they may have to trade pitcher Matt Garza as well.  Will the Rays still be contenders without them?  It is possible, but their chances are diminished.

On the other end of the spectrum are the rich teams.  These teams typically play in the country’s biggest markets, have stadiums that make a lot of money and have expensive television contracts.  Money is usually not an obstacle for these teams when acquiring players.

A common misconception is that the rich teams go out and simply outspend everyone else for the best free agents.  But, that is not always the case.  Oftentimes, the biggest contracts are given out by middle-class teams looking to make an impact, similar to what the Nationals did with Jayson Werth.

The biggest difference is that the rich teams can afford multiple stars as well as expensive complementary players.  A small-market team like the Twins can sign star catcher Joe Mauer to a big deal.  But as a result, they can’t really afford other expensive players to go with him.  They have to surround him with either young players or fringe free agents and hope that they overperform.

On the other hand, even though the Phillies are paying a lot of money to stars like Halladay, Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (and most teams couldn’t afford those four players alone), they can still afford higher priced supporting players like Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco.

Another advantage held by rich teams is that they can afford to make mistakes.  The Red Sox spent a fortune to acquire Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he has been a disappointment.  But that didn’t stop them from signing Crawford to a huge deal. 

If a smaller market team made that kind of mistake, their payroll would be crippled, and they’d probably be forced to trade some people away.  They certainly wouldn’t be able to sign yet another high priced free agent.

Ten years ago, this economic disparity bothered me greatly.  The Phillies were part of the lower-middle class, and the Yankees were coming off another championship, thanks in part to their large payroll.  It felt like the Phillies would never be serious contenders simply because they couldn’t match the financial resources of the rich teams. 

Much has changed in 10 years.  The Phillies built a new stadium, which has been a huge source of revenue for the team.  They are also experiencing an unprecedented surge in popularity.  As a result, ticket sales are maxing out, they sell a ton of merchandise, and television ratings are up—meaning they receive even more money from the broadcast rights.

Now, the Phillies are clearly part of baseball’s upper class.  They spend a lot of money and are seen as a desired destination for free agents.

Baseball’s financial system clearly has some problems.  But when dealing with an imperfect system, it’s always better to be on the good side.  I’ve seen it from both sides, and this is much better.

I’m sure fans of other teams will complain about the Phillies trying to buy a championship.  I’ve already heard a lot of “Yankees of the National League” talk.  I can understand people’s anger.  If I was a fan of the Rays or Pittsburgh Pirates, I would probably feel the same way.  If it’s any consolation, Phillies fans had to endure many years of suffering before we got to this point.

4. The Phillies could have re-signed Jayson Werth if they wanted to

Obviously, despite their earlier claims of maxing out their payroll, there was still money available.  And they did in fact offer Werth a sizable deal.  But they weren’t going to give him the money—and perhaps more importantly, the number of years—that the Nationals did.

Unlike Lee, Werth didn’t want to stay in Philadelphia enough to take a below-market deal, and I don’t really blame him.  Werth’s early career was derailed by injuries, and he never received a big contract.  He had already won a World Series as a complimentary player, so why not take the money and see if he can help another team win as one of the main stars?

It seems that the Phillies felt that if they were going to pay someone that much money, they’d be better off spending it on a top pitcher like Lee.  Werth has been a very good player for the Phillies, but they seem to feel the same way that I do.  The lineup is based around Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.  Werth is a very good compliment to them, but ultimately he can be replaced.

5. The Phillies will be good in 2011

As I said earlier, you can’t buy a World Series title.  But you can certainly put yourself in good position to win one, and that’s what the Phillies have done.

The Phillies lineup does have some questions considering how they underperformed last year.  But despite all their problems, they still managed to score the second-most runs in the National League and win 97 games.

Barring a severe decline in performance by their stars (doubtful based on everyone’s track record) or injury problems (much more likely due to past injury history and advancing age), the Phillies should make the playoffs. 

Predicting a playoff winner is much more difficult, as playoff victories seem to be more due to matchups and which team gets hot at the right time.  Still, being able to send out an ace-caliber pitcher every game will give the Phillies a huge advantage in the postseason as well.

So for Phillies fans, everything should seem great this morning.  Cliff Lee is back, and the Phillies once again look like favorites for the World Series.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last night’s NLCS game followed a script very familiar to Phillies fans.

The team scratched out a first-inning run, helped along by the miscues of their opponent.  They got key contributions throughout the lineup.  The unexpected hitting star continued to shine.  They were patient and did some damage against an opposing reliever.  The relief ace was lights out.  And they won the game thanks to some late-game heroics.

Since 2008, the Phillies have seemed to follow that script several times en route to six series wins, two pennants and one World Series championship.  Except last night, it was the Giants who managed to follow the winning formula, and the Phillies who came up short.

It was the Giants who took advantage of two wild pitches to score a first-inning run.  It was the Giants who got big hits throughout their lineup.  It wasn’t Carlos Ruiz who continued to emerge as a postseason star—but rather Cody Ross.  Instead of the Phillies beating up on Jonathan Broxton, it was the Giants taking the lead against Chad Durbin.  It wasn’t Brad Lidge shutting down his opponents, but rather Brian Wilson who left the Phillies’ hitters looking helpless. 

And finally, it was the Giants who scored the winning run in the ninth inning.

And now it is the Giants who look poised to capture the National League pennant, which most people had pretty much handed to the Phillies before the postseason began.

The Giants look very similar to the 2008 Phillies right now.  Their lineup might not be nearly as dangerous—but as we’ve seen in the postseason, that doesn’t necessarily matter.  What does matter is that they’re receiving strong pitching performances, making all the necessary plays and coming up with key hits.

On the other hand, the Phillies look lost.  This series is starting to look an awful lot like the August series against the Astros where everything just seemed to go against the Phillies.  Their hitters are struggling.  The pitchers perform decently, but not quite well enough. The manager’s moves don’t work.  Umpire calls go against them.  (I’m certainly not blaming the umps for the loss, but that was one of the worst performances by a home plate umpire in awhile.  The strike zone had absolutely no consistency.)

Even when they appear to get a break, it doesn’t end up helping them.  Pablo Sandoval hit a ball that was ruled foul, but replays showed that it was probably fair.  (To be honest, that was about as close as a ball can come, and I don’t know if they could have overturned it even with replay).  Sandoval just came back and hit a double.

Or when a pitch seemed to hit Juan Uribe on the hand, but it was ruled a foul.  That didn’t stop Uribe from hitting the game-winning sacrifice fly.

So now the Phillies are trailing the series 3-1, and have to win three games against the Giants’ starting trio of Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain.  Considering the way they’ve struggled at the plate, it doesn’t seem like a promising scenario.

There was a lot of debate over Charlie Manuel’s decision to start Joe Blanton last night instead of Roy Halladay on short rest.  I agreed with the move, even though it didn’t work out.

First, Blanton is a much better pitcher than people think.  He’s not as good as the “Big Three,” but he’s proven to be a solid major-league starter.  He’s won postseason games for this team before, and pitched well in the second half.  A start by Blanton was far from an automatic loss.

More importantly, if they had gone with Halladay on short rest, then they would have also had to go with Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and then possibly Halladay again on short rest.  It seems like a bad idea to have the final four games of a series started by pitchers on short rest.

For those who suggested that they could just use Blanton for Game 5 or 6 instead, I don’t understand the logic behind that move.  If you don’t trust him in Game 4 matched against rookie Madison Bumgarner, then why would you trust him in a potentially more important game against Lincecum, Cain or Sanchez?

If there was a move by Manuel that should be questioned, it would be the use of Oswalt in relief.  While it isn’t unusual for a starter to be used in the bullpen between starts, the manager typically prepares the starter ahead of time, and tells him not to take his usual throwing session that day.  Supposedly, Oswalt had already thrown earlier in the day. 

I could understand using him if the game had gone into extra innings, and they were left with no other options.  But Manuel still had three relievers available.  Obviously, using the inconsistent Kyle Kendrick isn’t the preferred option (and they’d want to save him in case the game went long anyway), and I can understand saving Brad Lidge until they got a lead, otherwise he’d have to pitch multiple innings or be replaced. 

But why didn’t Manuel use JC Romero in the ninth?  I’d think that using an experienced relief pitcher would be a much better option than using one of his starters who had already thrown earlier in the day.  Was Romero unavailable for some reason?

Regardless, the game is over, and the Phillies are now faced with the task of winning three games in a row.  It is a difficult situation, but far from impossible.  The upside of going with Blanton last night is that they now have Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels lined up to start on full rest. 

The Giants’ starters may be imposing, but expecting the Phillies to win three straight games (two at home) started by their aces is far from unrealistic.

Hopefully starting tonight, the Phillies can remember how to get back to their winning ways.  Otherwise, they’re going to be faced with a script that has become very unfamiliar to them: Someone else celebrating a National League pennant.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After dismissing the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS, the Phillies will face off against the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS. 

Will the Giants be a minor speed bump on the road to another National League pennant, or do they have a legitimate shot at sending the Phillies home early?

Here are some arguments for both cases:

Fear the Giants

In theory, the teams in the NLCS are the two best the league has to offer.  Not only does a team have to survive the regular-season gauntlet to earn a playoff berth, but they must also defeat another playoff worthy team just to advance. 

The Giants won a competitive NL West division, and then dismissed the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.  That alone marks them as a good team.  And the main reason for their success is their pitching staff.

The staff is led by Tim Lincecum, who is one of the best starters in the majors, having won the 2008 and 2009 Cy Young Awards.  By his standards, 2010 was a slightly off year, as he struggled in August leading to some “What’s wrong with Lincecum?  Is he injured?” talk.

He quickly dismissed that speculation with an outstanding stretch run, and a sterling effort in his start in the NLDS.  If he is on his game, he can be near unhittable.

The rest of the staff is impressive as well: Jonathan Sanchez is a tough left-hander, who has given the Phillies trouble in the past.  Matt Cain had an excellent year and features a good fastball.  It isn’t clear if the Giants will use a fourth starter, but if they do, it will be rookie left-hander Madison Bumgarner.  (Now that’s a great name!)  Bumgarner had a strong rookie season and excelled in his NLDS start, so he is far from a weak link.

The Giants bullpen has also performed well this year, led by closer Brian Wilson, who led the NL in saves.

Considering that the Phillies had trouble scoring runs (or at least earned runs) off of the Reds’ good but not great pitchers, what kind of success can they expect to have against the Giants pitchers?  They can’t depend on a complete breakdown by the Giants’ fielders similar to what happened to the Reds.

The long layoff between playoff series isn’t going to help the Phillies’ chances either.  Ryan Howard (one of the few Phillies who has had past success against Lincecum) didn’t have a strong NLDS, and tends to suffer after extended time off.  They’ll need him to start hitting like he did in last year’s NLCS in which he was named MVP.  The extra rest probably won’t help guys like Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez find their stroke either.

There’s a good chance that these games are going to be low-scoring affairs.  Games will likely come down to one or two plays, and in that type of situation, one fluke play can make a huge difference.  The Phillies are the better team on paper, but in close games, that doesn’t mean anything.

Start Planning for the World Series

While the Giants’ spot in the final four may prove that they are a good team, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are a great team.  They won a West division in which their two closest competitors (Padres and Rockies) both collapsed badly down the stretch.  In the NLDS, they were matched against a beaten up Braves team that seemed to find ways to lose. 

So while it is nice that they have gotten this far, at some point they’ll have to prove themselves to be more than just opportunistic.

They’ll also have to find a way to hit better than they have.  If the Reds—the highest scoring team in the NL—couldn’t hit against the Phillies’ starters, what chance do the weak-hitting Giants have?

While the Giants were the only team in the majors to have beaten the Phillies starting trio of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels this season, there’s no indication that they’ll be able to do so again.  Even they don’t seem to like their chances, as I’ve heard quotes from Giants players about “needing to scrape out some runs,” and “wanting to keep things low scoring.”

If we give the Giants the edge in the potential Game 4 matchup of Fat Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner (By the way, people need to give Blanton more credit.  He didn’t have the the greatest year, but he was solid down the stretch, and has had postseason success in the past), will the Giants be able to score enough runs in three out of six starts by Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels? 

I can’t see the Giants scoring enough runs to win the series.  Who in the Giants lineup seems like a real threat?  Buster Posey had a great rookie season, but is he capable of carrying their entire offense?  Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres are solid hitters, but once again, not exactly the type to make a pitcher worry too much.

Former Phillie Pat Burrell has played well for them, and could provide some power, but as any Phillies fan can tell you, Burrell can be pitched to.

Maybe in a close game the Giants will be able to score some runs against the Phillies relievers.  But the way that the Phillies starters have pitched, their relief pitching doesn’t often even come into play.  And unlike the Braves, the Phillies late-game relief combo of Ryan Madson (MADSON!!!!) and Brad Lidge are healthy, and have been extremely effective in the second half of the season.

The Giants are also far weaker than the Phillies defensively.  Sure, their numbers might look OK because they don’t commit a lot of errors.  But that is partially due to the horrendous fielding range showed by many of their fielders.  Are the Giants capable of making the game saving defensive plays that would be necessary to win a close game?  It seems doubtful.

As for the Phillies hitters, I think they’ll do just enough damage to get the job done.  Unlike most lineups that the Giants face, the Phillies have strength all the way through.  Which means that even if Rollins and Howard are slumping, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth are capable of carrying the team.  And while the layoff might hurt the Phillies’ hitting timing, it can only help with Rollins’ sore hamstring.  If he can run at near full speed, that adds yet another element that the Giants will have to deal with.

My Prediction

The Giants seem like a tougher opponent than the Dodgers of 2008 and 2009.  And I don’t think that the Giants will play scared like the Reds seemed to.

But in the end, the result will be the same.  The Giants’ starters are too good for them not to win a couple games, but in the end, the Phillies will capture their third consecutive pennant.

Phillies in six.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

On Monday night, Cole Hamels delivered the latest in a string of marvelous pitching performances and led the Phillies to a victory over the Atlanta Braves.  Brilliant performances by Hamels have not been rare throughout his career, and yet less than a year ago, many Phillies fans were ready to send him out of town.

A brief history lesson:

Hamels was the leader of the Phillies pitching staff in 2008 and helped carry the team to a World Series championship.  He looked like an emerging young ace, and everyone expected huge things from him in 2009.

2009 didn’t go quite as planned.  Possibly more than any other Phillie, Hamels felt the negative effects of a long postseason run.  His innings pitched had jumped considerably in 2008, and he decided that his arm needed extra time to recover.  Because of this (and perhaps partially because he was distracted by his new found celebrity) he delayed the start of his offseason training program.

Hamels felt he would be able to compensate during Spring Training, but due to some arm soreness (which may have been a result of the lack of training), he wasn’t able to fully catch up.  Needing extra time to prepare for the season, he missed the first few games.  When he finally debuted, his arm strength wasn’t nearly where it had been, as he was only throwing in the high 80s as opposed to the low-to-mid 90s that had been his career norm.

While he did show flashes of greatness throughout 2009, he couldn’t consistently recapture his strong 2008 form.   Even worse, he appeared to lose some of his mental edge.  In the 2008 postseason, many lauded him for being “fearless” and “unflappable” on the mound.  But in 2009, there seemed to be several occasions where bad calls or fielding errors noticeably affected him, and he appeared to lose his composure.

Tellingly, after a poor World Series start, he told reporters that he couldn’t wait for the season to be over.  While he meant that he simply wanted a fresh start after an uneven season, many fans took the quote to mean that he was giving up on 2009.

By most people’s estimation, 2009 was a disappointing season for Hamels who finished with a 10-11 record and a 4.32 ERA.  

But there was one group who countered that Hamels’ actually performed as well in 2009 as he did in 2008: the sabermetricians (or statheads as some like to call them).  They argued that the decrease in Hamels’ numbers was not due to poor performance, but rather due to bad luck and circumstances beyond his control.

Statheads discount many of baseball’s traditional statistics, most notably pitcher wins.  They claim that wins are too dependent on outside factors.  To some extent this is true, as a pitcher can receive little run support, or his bullpen could blow the lead, leaving him without a win even though he pitched well.

When judging pitcher peformance, statheads often refer to statistics that can supposedly measure how lucky a pitcher was.  Some examples are batting average on balls in play  (BABIP) or home runs per fly ball (HR/FB).  Supposedly, the pitcher has little control over these, and over time, they will typically revert to the league average.  So if a pitcher has a poor record, and either of these values deviate too much from the mean (as both did for Hamels), it just means that the pitcher was unlucky, not that he pitched poorly.

I can understand the statheads’ belief that statistics can provide a deeper understanding of the game and player value.  But what statheads don’t seem to always comprehend is that using statistics without any context to go along with them can be equally misleading.

Take a look at these two hypothetical scenarios:

Scenario 1: In the second inning of a 0-0 game, the home team’s pitcher gives up a solo home run.

Scenario 2: In the eighth inning of a 2-2 game – immediately after his team has scored two runs to tie the game in the previous half inning – the home team’s pitcher gives up a solo home run.

Statistically, both cases are the same, as only one run has been given up, and the team is facing a one run deficit.  But in reality, which case is worse?  I think most baseball fans would tell you that the second case is much worse. 

A solo homer in the second inning doesn’t seem especially harmful.  While it isn’t great to be playing from behind, the team still has eight chances to make up the run.

In the second case,  it is undoubtedly a bit deflating for the team knowing that the comeback they just staged was for naught.   Even worse, they will now only have two chances to erase the deficit.

What does this tell us?  That sometimes whether or not a pitcher wins the game can depend on factors beyond what the stat sheet indicates.

There seem to be quite a few pitchers who pitch just well enough to lose.  Their stat lines might look good, but they don’t do the things necessary to win games, or they give up runs like in the second scenario, and as a result, the team loses.

There’s something to be said for pitchers who know how to win games.  Pitchers who can do the little things like bunt runners over, field their position well, and hold base runners on give their teams a better chance to win games.  Winning pitchers also seem to be able to deliver big pitches in key situations.

For instance, why does Roy Halladay win so many games?  First, he almost always pitches deep into the game.  The longer a starter goes, the less of a chance his bullpen has to blow the game.  If a pitcher pitches a strong game, but can’t get out of the seventh inning, he has less room to complain about a blown lead.

Halladay also seems to have the ability to bear down in big spots.  I can recall multiple occassions when he was in a jam, and induced a double play to escape.  Was the double play a result of luck, or because Halladay delivered a pitch resulting in a ground ball?  I tend to lean towards the latter.

What does this have to do with Hamels?  At times in 2009, Hamels looked like a pitcher who didn’t do all the things necessary to win games. He seemed to lack mental toughness.  If a call went against him, or things started to go poorly for the team, he didn’t seem to lack the ability to bear down and set things right.

It wasn’t bad luck that caused him to fall apart in his World Series start against the Yankees.  After Alex Rodriguez gave up a cheap home run, Hamels could have recovered.  Instead, he gave up three more runs, one of which was scored via a base hit by the opposing pitcher.  Did bad luck cause him to give up the hit, or was it due to him overusing his curveball, which he considers to be his third best pitch?

That World Series outing summed up Hamels’ 2009 season.  He seemed prone to giving up home runs at important moments, and giving up hits to players who shouldn’t have been able to touch him.  Was he unlucky?  Yes, I think he was somewhat.  But was that the main difference between 2008 and 2009?  I don’t believe so.  I think it had much more to due with not being able to strike out hitters consistently, and not delivering big pitches in key situations.

Regardless of the cause for his 2009 downturn, as we approach the end of the 2010 season, Hamels once again is pitching like a dominant ace.  What changed?

Part of the reason for improvement is the Phillies’ additions of fellow starters Roy Oswalt and Halladay.  Both of those pitchers have pitched like aces, and that puts less pressure on Hamels.  When a team only has one ace, there is often tremendous pressure on him to win.  He knows that if he doesn’t, the team is faced with the prospect of a losing streak.

But when you have multiple aces like the Phillies do, there is less pressure on each of them.  They may also start to feed off of each other, trying to top what the others have done.  This certainly seems to be the case with the Phillies’ trio.

Even without the addition of the two Roys, I’d say that Hamels would have improved simply because his arm strength appears to be back.  His fastball is once again reaching the mid-90s, and that makes his changeup more of a weapon.  If hitters aren’t worried about catching up to a fastball, then the changeup won’t be able to fool them enough to be effective.  That might have been the difference between getting a strikeout and batters fouling off pitches as they were too often doing in 2009.

Hamels also made a point to expand his pitching repertiore.  Up until 2010, his main pitches had been the fastball and changeup.  He occassionally threw a curveball, but it was generally ineffecitve (as shown in the World Series).  His coaches advised him that he would need another pitch to keep hitters offguard.  With no significant breaking pitch to worry about, hitters – especially lefthanders – seemed more able to lock onto this pitches.

Hamels worked to improve his curveball to help neutralize lefties, and in addition he worked to develop a cut fastball to use against righties.  (Side note: I always get a kick when announcers refer to the cut fastball as a cutter.  “These hitters are no match for the cutter!”)  In theory, these pitches would make hitters far less comfortable sitting in and waiting for a fastball or changeup.

Early returns were not especially promising, as in the early months of the season, Hamels didn’t seem to have great control of his secondary pitches.  The curveball and cutter were either getting hit, or else he would mount deep pitch counts because he was wild.

To his credit, Hamels stuck with the new pitches.  He could have said, “Forget this.  I was World Series MVP with only two pitches.  The new stuff isn’t working, so I’ll just go with those two.”  But instead, he worked through the problems, and now seems to be a much more complete pitcher.  He appears to be even better than he was in 2008.

Ironically, throughout most of the season, his win-loss record didn’t necessarily reflect his improvement.  He was receiving pathetically little run support and even lost multiple games by a 1-0 score. 

Now this may seem strange, since I just warned against discounting wins due to “bad luck.”  But here’s the thing about luck for a pitcher: If he is truly pitching well, it will eventually balance out.  Lately, the Phillies have been giving Hamels adequate run support, and as a result, he has started winning games again.

So I will offer praise to Cole Hamels.  He may have had a poor (and maybe somewhat unlucky) 2009, but he worked to improve himself, and the Phillies are now reaping the rewards.

Originally posted on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

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I am happy to say that I may have been wrong in writing off the Phillies.

Since I wrote that, the Phillies play improved greatly, and they fought their way back into contention. As September begins, they find themselves leading the wild card standings and trailing the Braves in the National League East by three games. With six games yet to play against the Braves, it is clear that the Phillies control their own playoff destiny.

Of course, just because they’re in a position to make the postseason, it doesn’t mean that they actually will. So how do the Phillies’ chances look heading into this stretch run?

Right now, the team’s biggest strength is their starting pitching. The rotation, bolstered by the addition of Roy Oswalt, has been performing very well. Oswalt, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels give the team an edge in just about every game they start. Joe Blanton has improved over the past month, and seems a good bet to at least keep the team in the game when he pitches. While fifth starter Kyle Kendrick has been much less reliable, he’s also pitched well enough at times to keep his starts from being automatic losses.

The bullpen seems to have stabilized somewhat recently. While he hasn’t been at the elite level of 2008, closer Brad Lidge has at least not been the disaster that he was in 2009 either. He seems to be an average major league closer at this point. He’ll get the job done the majority of the time, but he’ll blow a few saves along the way.

RYAN MADSON!!! has once again been excellent in his eighth inning setup role. The other relievers are less reliable, but considering how well the starters have done, there hasn’t been much need for them to pitch too much. They should be able to piece together enough successful innings from JC Romero, Chad Durbin, and Jose Contreras to get the job done.

Basically, the Phillies can count on their pitching giving them at least a chance to win on most nights. Which means that it is up to the offense to do it’s fair share.

The lineup has underachieved throughout the season. The Phillies have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball over the past few years, and most expected them to be a high scoring team again. Instead, they have struggled mightily, going through long stretches where they have had trouble scoring runs. They’ve been shut out 11 times so far, and on three different occasions, they’ve finished the game with only one hit.

Part of the problem has been injuries. Just about every regular player has spent time on the disabled list, and they’ve only had their expected lineup together for a handful of games. But as of September 1st, all of their regulars are back in the lineup.

Despite having a full roster, it might be a stretch to declare the team healthy as a few of their players don’t appear to be at full strength. Placido Polanco has admittedly suffered elbow pain for most of the season, and it might be wearing on him a bit. 

Something definitely seems to be wrong with Chase Utley. There was hope that the time he spent on the DL might actually help him, since he tends to wear down as the season progresses. But his hitting stroke doesn’t seem to be there. He seems to be hitting a lot of pop ups to the left side of the field, something that I don’t recall him ever doing much of before.

And Ryan Howard looks completely lost at the plate right now. Considering he’s typically a slow starter, it was to be expected that he might need some time to round back into shape after his stint on the DL. Still, he has looked unable to hit major league pitching since his return. Perhaps his home run on Tuesday night is a sign that he’s getting back on track. Since he’s carried the Phillies’ offense in September of recent years, they’ll need him to start hitting again quickly.

But despite their possible ailments, if these guys are playing, then they should be expected to perform at their usual high level. If they aren’t healthy enough to play well, then they shouldn’t be in the lineup.

The bottom line is that while injuries might have kept the Phillies from dominating up until this point, that is no longer a valid excuse. As manager Charlie Manuel recently said, “The lineup we have on the field tonight, that’s our lineup. If that lineup doesn’t hit, we’re in trouble.”

A postseason berth is waiting for the Phillies. If they can’t take it, they have no one to blame but themselves.

Originally posted in my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

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Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals’  “Baseball Jesus” has been placed on the disabled list for the second time this season, and the team’s management and fans are understandably quite concerned.

Some people say that it is normal for a pitcher to have some arm soreness, especially since this is his first year of professional baseball, and his body is merely adjusting to his new pitching schedule.

That might have been the case for his initial shoulder injury.  But the latest injury seems much more ominous.  When a pitcher feels pain in a forearm tendon, that is not a good sign.  That feels like the first step towards Tommy John surgery and over a year of rehabilitation.

Many experts have said that Strasburg was at high risk of injury.  Even for pitchers with “perfect” mechanics, the act of pitching a baseball is unnatural for the human body.  Any pitcher is going to suffer a bit.  But some claim that Strasburg’s mechanics are not good, and they leave him at greater risk of injury.  They point to former Cubs phenom Mark Prior as a case of another talented pitcher whose poor pitching form derailed his potentially great career.

Even if the injury is not a long-term concern, it is still disappointing.  He was having an impressive rookie season, and more importantly, seemed to revitalize baseball in Washington.  People actually talked about the Nationals and for perhaps the first time since the team debuted in 2005, there was genuine excitement about them.

His debut might have been the greatest moment in Nationals’ history.  While the team has had a full stadium before, it was usually due to a high drawing opponent like the Red Sox.  But for Strasburg’s debut, there was actually a full crowd cheering for the Nationals.

Even better, Strasburg was amazing that night.  He absolutely dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates, and showed pitching ability that the league hadn’t seen in some time.  The closest comparison that anyone could make was to a young Dwight Gooden.

The rest of his year hasn’t quite matched that first start, but he’s still done well.   Like any pitcher, he’s had some games where his best stuff simply wasn’t there.  And he’s also had some games where the opponent found ways to hit him.  But for the most part, he looks capable of living up to the hype.  That is, if he can stay healthy.

If this injury turns out to be no big deal, and he comes back next season to embark on a long career, what can reasonably be expected from him?

1. He will have some games where he absolutely dominates.  He might have the best “stuff” of any pitcher in baseball.  Even if you disregard the near-100 MPH fastball, his curveball and changeup are also devastating.  If he is in command of these pitches, he will be near unhittable.

2. He will have some games where he walks a lot of guys.  With that much power behind his pitches, it’s difficult to assume that he’ll be able to maintain perfect control.

3. Teams that have a disciplined plate approach, and try to go opposite field against him may have some success.  When he pitched against the Royals, they took this approach and hit a lot of singles.  They didn’t score many runs, but just enough to win the game.

4. He’ll give up a fair share of home runs.  Power pitchers are normally susceptible to giving up home runs (the faster the pitch, the harder it can be hit) and Strasburg is about as powerful as they come.

But once again, this all depends on him staying healthy.  If not, he’ll just be another phenom who flamed out.

In more positive news, they added another potential phenom when they came to terms with Bryce Harper, their first round draft pick in June’s amateur draft.  He’s been called the “LeBron James of baseball” and his talent level has been compared to a young Alex Rodriguez.

They signed him for $9.9 million, which is the highest total ever given to a non-pitcher amateur draft pick.  And yet, it is far below what some people estimated that he might get from the Nats.  His agent Scott Boras claimed that Harper was a “once-in-a-generation” talent, and would deserve a record contract.  This is not especially surprising, since every year, Boras seems to declare one of his clients to be a “once-in-a-generation” talent. 

Last year, he was saying the same thing about Strasburg.  It was obvious that Harper wasn’t going to get anywhere near Strasburg’s record deal for an amateur.  Strasburg was an accomplished college pitcher who looked to be almost ready for the majors when he was drafted.  As good a hitter as Harper may be, he’s still only 17, and will need at least a couple of minor league seasons, especially since he will be switching positions from catcher to right field.

In addition to signing Harper, the Nats also signed a few of their lower draft picks to large contracts, going well above the suggested amount provided by Major League Baseball’s slotting system.  For those unfamiliar with the slotting system: MLB comes up with a suggested signing price for each draft pick and encourages teams to stay near those figures when agreeing to terms.

Conforming with the slotting system is a great way to keep your minor league system free of high-end talent.  Basically, the players’ agents look at the suggested slot cost and say “That’s nice.  But here’s what it is really going to take to get a deal done.”  If the two sides can’t come to an agreement, the player can re-enter the draft the next year and the team is awarded a compensation pick.

While this might seem to be a lose-lose situation, it’s really much worse for the team than it is for the player.  A high school player has the option of going to college (and in some cases improving his draft position).  College players obviously have less leverage.  When they go unsigned, they usually end up playing a season in an independent league, which can often be comparable in talent level to the minor league that the team would have assigned them to.

So the Nationals did the right thing, paid the necessary money, and they now have Harper in their system.    If his development goes as planned, he is expected to make his major league debut in 2012.  Of course, since he is only 17, his development could take much longer.  So don’t count on him carrying the Nationals’ lineup anytime soon.

One final word about the Nationals: Their TV announcers are bad.

The usual announcers are play-by-play man Bob Carpenter and color analyst Rob Dibble.  Now I understand that a team’s announcers are going to be “homers,” and they will be rooting for the home team.  And I also understand that trying to be optimistic about a team that constantly loses must be a bit wearing.  

But here’s a few suggestions: 

1. If a call goes against the Nationals, it is not a “travesty”.  Dibble acts like every close call that is not in the Nationals favor is a crime against the sport.  Especially when it comes to borderline balls and strikes.  This leads to…

2. Enough with the pitch tracker.  Over the past few years, TV broadcasts have started to use on-screen graphics to show a projection of the strike zone, and determine if a pitch is in the strike zone.  The Nationals’ broadcasts seem to use their version, the Qinetic Pitch Track on just about every pitch. 

The problem is that these projections aren’t really exact, and don’t take into account the variability of each batter’s strike zone.  That doesn’t stop Dibble from ranting every time a strike call that goes against the Nats doesn’t match what the pitch track shows.

3. Please stop with the overbearing praise of Ryan Zimmerman.  I realize that he’s been the shining hope for the franchise over the past few seasons.  But the announcers can’t seem to praise him and his accomplishments enough, even when unmerited.

If Zimmerman strikes out after fouling off a few pitches, he did not “hang tough” or “give the pitcher a battle.”  He struck out.  And yes, he is a good fielder.  But is it necessary to act as if every routine grounder he fields was a highlight worthy play?  I don’t think a ball has been hit to him all season that didn’t prompt them to mention that he won a Gold Glove last year.

It’s a shame because Zimmerman is a talented young player.  But after listening to the Nationals announcers, I have grown to dislike him.

Then again, after hearing fill-in announcer Johnny Holliday this past weekend, I have a new appreciation for Carpenter.  Holliday may be an accomplished football announcer, but listening to him call a baseball game was painful.  It came across like someone said, “Hey, my uncle is a big fan of the team!  Why don’t we let him call the game?”

The happiest possible resolution to this problem is if Strasburg and Harper actually come through and lead the Nationals into contention.  Then, while the announcers might still be bad, at least they’d be doing bad announcing for good baseball.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I’m done.  I am officially giving up on the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies.

While I have similarly written the team off in recent years and then watched the Phillies rally towards the end of the season, I just can’t see it happening this year. 

Yesterday, they narrowly avoided being swept by the St. Louis Cardinals.  And by narrowly, I mean it required their pitching staff to throw a one-hit shutout.

Despite that, Philadelphia still needed to go 11 innings just to score a run. This was only its second victory since the All-Star break, and the team’s first win was practically handed to them by the Cubs.

Despite yesterday’s win, the Phillies are still seven games behind the Braves in the National League East, and show little indication that they are capable of making up such a deficit.

Before the season, many people—myself included —speculated that this could potentially be the greatest Phillies team ever. 

And for the first month and a half of the season, they certainly looked capable of living up to the hype. They were cruising along at 24-13 with a comfortable division lead. 

But then things went inexplicably wrong.

It’s hard to pinpoint the exact moment when the problems began, but it might have started on May 18th. After crushing the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates the night before, they would be facing them again with ace pitcher Roy Halladay on the mound. 

It felt like a guaranteed win for the Phillies—a game that they could pretty much win without even trying. And although Halladay pitched well in that game, the Phillies were held to only one run and lost the game 2-1.

While the mindset of the players is obviously quite different than the mindset of the fans, it is worth wondering if the team also became somewhat overconfident that night.  Did their early season success—coming after two straight pennants—somehow lead them to believe that they could win without even trying? Was their competitive nature dulled?

The turning point also might have come that Friday when they began Interlegaue play against the Red Sox. They were cruising towards victory when, for the second time this season, Jimmy Rollins had to leave a game with a calf injury. 

Rollins had missed much of the season to that point, and throughout his absence his replacements had played surprisingly well. But it might have been too much to ask for them to do it for an extended period of time. Not only does Rollins typically spark the Phillies offense from the leadoff spot, but he is an excellent defensive player and one of the team’s leaders.

Rollins’ injury also might have hurt the Phillies’ psyches. They had already suffered some bad injury luck with disabled list stints by pitchers J.A. Happ, Brad Lidge, and Ryan Madson. When Rollins went out again, it would have only been natural for the Phillies to start to wonder if they were somewhat snakebitten.

For instance, not long after Rollins returned (and the team looked like it was on an upswing), Chase Utley went out with a thumb injury that will keep him out until August at the earliest.  When you can’t get your expected lineup on the field, the pressure starts to mount for the remaining players.

Regardless of the cause, the Phillies entered a funk that they have yet to emerge from.  Considering the track record of their hitters, there is no real explanation for the lack of offensive success.  While they have been shut down by some star pitchers like Josh Johnson and Chris Carpenter, they have also had troubles against mediocre-to-poor guys like Zach Duke and Ross Ohlendorf. 

The injuries might have contributed to the slump, but injuries alone can’t account for their futility.  For instance, before he got hurt, Utley was having the worst season of his career. 

Jayson Werth got off to a strong start, but has been slumping badly since then.  Shane Victorino has hit for more power this year, but his overall numbers have slipped.  And Raul Ibanez has continued to scuffle as he did the second half of last year.

In comparison, the pitchers have fared better, but they have been somewhat disappointing as well.  While Halladay has mostly pitched well, he hasn’t quite lived up to the “Best Pitcher in Baseball” hype he received before the season.  To his credit, he’s received very little run support, and has been on the losing end of several low scoring games. 

The rotation’s back end, consisting of Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer (who has now come down with an injury of his own), and Kyle Kendrick, has been terribly inconsistent. They have all provided some strong starts, but have also been atrocious in other games. There is no telling what to expect from any of them. 

Then again, aside from Halladay and Cole Hamels, none of the Phillies’ starters was expected to be the type of pitcher who could carry a team to victory.  They were expected to keep the game close with a “quality start” and have the offense put up a lot of runs.  Since their offense has been so underwhelming, it has made their performances look that much worse.

Their bullpen doesn’t seem to be in great shape either.  While closer Brad Lidge has been better than the utter disaster he was in 2009, he has had some shaky outings and has made the ninth inning a nervous experience for Phillies fans. It doesn’t appear that any of their other relief pitchers are especially reliable either.

While it’s bad enough to watch a team underachieve, the worst part about the team is how they seem to play bad baseball. Their offensive slump seems more pronounced by the accompanying mistakes that they make. 

Between fielding errors, poor baserunning, and abysmal clutch hitting, the Phillies are not doing the little things necessary to win games.

Many of these mistakes are hard to explain. For the past few seasons, they’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the league. While part of the problem may be that some of their regulars have missed time, it feels like even their normally sure-handed players are making atypical errors in the field. 

Their running game has taken a major downturn as well. They have been among the league leaders in stolen bases the past few years, and those numbers have been way down in 2010. 

Once again, injuries to Rollins and Utley have not helped in this department, but it still seems as if they aren’t taking advantage of their opportunities.  In addition, they’ve made several baserunning mistakes, and have made outs trying to stretch hits for extra bases.

Worst of all is the team’s situational hitting. While it had some problems with this in recent years (the 2008 World Series championship team had notable struggles with runners in scoring position), it seems to be even more pronounced since the offensive slump began. 

The Phillies into double plays.  They seem incapable of advancing runners.  And in situations where they have a runner on third base and less than two outs, their success rate at getting the runner home is horrendous.

It’s maddening to watch a once mighty offense struggle so much.  You can only see Raul Ibanez flail helplessly at a curveball or watch Jayson Werth take strike three so many times before you get disgusted.

Their offense has performed so poorly that the team fired hitting coach Milt Thompson.  Thompson was their hitting coach since 2005 and during his time, they had constantly been among the best offensive teams in baseball.

Was it his fault?  Probably not, but I guess they figured they had to make some sort of move.

Now, their front office is talking about looking for help by making a trade for a starting pitcher such as Roy Oswalt. 

Of course, had they simply not traded ace pitcher Cliff Lee in the offseason, they probably wouldn’t need to look for help.  Management has still not been able to adequately explain why they “had” to trade Lee, and why they got such a poor return for him.

But even with Lee, I don’t know if the team would have fared much better this season, since it’s difficult to win games where you don’t receive any run support. In many of their starts, Halladay and Hamels have pitched well, only to get a loss because the team was held to one or fewer runs.

The team’s only hope is that since their hitters have successful track records will start to play up to their capabilities. There’s a theory that guys like Ibanez, Victorino, and (when he returns) Utley will ultimately have final numbers similar to their career norms. Getting to those numbers would mean an especially hot final two and a half months to the season, which would probably result in an offensive explosion for the team.

But based on the way that this season has gone, I no longer expect to see a season ending hot streak like we saw in 2007 and 2008. After a few years of everything breaking right for them, it just feels like a lot is going wrong. 

It also seems like the other teams in the division are playing better than they did the past few years.  To make up ground in the division, they’ll need the Braves to slump a bit, but it would be hard to imagine that the Braves collapse down the stretch like the Mets did in 2007.

I could be wrong.  Philadelphia could suddenly remember how to hit, go on a hot streak and make yet another late-season run at the playoffs. 

I will continue to watch the team and hope that they turn things around.  But after seeing too many inept offensive performances, and too many mistake-filled losses, I no longer expect it to happen.

Originally posted on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com