Kuzul

Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins made sports history earlier this month when the two sides agreed to an unprecedented 13-year, $325 million contract extension through 2027.

While Miami’s decision to offer Stanton, the runner-up in the voting for the 2014 National League Most Valuable Player Award, a contract of that magnitude may seem obscene, it also represented the organization’s only opportunity to lock him up long term. After all, it’s not as though 80-grade power grows on trees these days.

In general, teams have been more willing to give multiyear extensions to young players in the last two seasons, and especially to guys who made an immediate impact after reaching the major leagues and are likely to become increasingly costly once eligible for arbitration.

That was the driving force behind the Angels’ decision to offer Mike Trout a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension last spring, as they essentially bought out his arbitration years while also securing subsequent years at a reasonable price.

However, Trout wasn’t the only promising young player to sign an extension last spring: The Pirates and Cardinals gave extensions to outfielder Starling Marte (six years, $31 million) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (six years, $52 million), respectively, while the Braves locked up the game’s best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58 million) before the 2014 season.

So which young MLB stars—players who are no more than 25 years of age and have less than two years of service time in the major leagues—are likely to receive long-term extensions this offseason?

Here’s a look at two intriguing candidates.

Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins

Age: 22

Service Time: 1.069

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

The Marlins challenged Yelich with a promotion from Double-A to the major leagues in mid-2013, and the 22-year-old left fielder has done nothing but hit since his debut.

While primarily serving as the Marlins leadoff hitter, Yelich has put together an impressive .285/.365/.400 battling line in 933 plate appearances over the last two seasons, while also accruing 42 doubles, seven triples, 13 home runs and 31 stolen bases during that time frame.

More importantly, Yelich quickly has emerged as one of baseball’s better left fielders during his short time in the major leagues, ranking seventh in fWAR (5.7) and 12th in wRC+ (116) among players at the position with at least 700 plate appearances.

The Marlins would be wise to buy out Yelich’s arbitration years (beginning in 2017) and his first year or two of free agency to ensure he’s setting the table for Stanton for at least the next six seasons.

With a little more than a year of service time to his name (1.069 years), Yelich, who has the makings of a future batting champion and All-Star, is probably looking at an extension in the ballpark of five or six years and close to $20 million, though that figure stands to increase if the Marlins believe he’ll develop consistent 15-20 home run power during those years.

George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

Age: 25

Service Time: 0.166

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

George Springer made his highly anticipated debut with the Astros in 2014, but a nagging quad injury limited the toolsy outfielder to only 78 games. However, that was more than enough time for Springer to put himself on the map as one of baseball’s more talented and intriguing young players.

After struggling during his first few weeks in The Show, Springer eventually settled in at the plate to bat .231/.336/.468 with 20 home runs in 345 plate appearances. The 25-year-old did most of his damage in May—his first full month in the major leagues—batting .297 with 10 home runs in 117 plate appearances, and then added six more long balls in June.

In the wake of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension, B/R MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer identified other players who might be worth a $300 million contract. One of those players is Springer, who, as Rymer pointed out, put up nearly the same numbers in 2014 (.231 AVG, .804 OPS, 20 HR and 1.4 fWAR) as Stanton did as a rookie back in 2010 (.259 AVG, .833 OPS, 22 HR and 2.3 fWAR).

However, Rymer goes on to note a few differences between the two sluggers:

One complication, however, is that Springer is actually slightly older than Stanton by just under a month (they’re both 25). So while his rookie season was comparable to Stanton’s, it might represent Springer’s ceiling rather than his floor.

Though Springer doesn’t deserve anything close to Stanton money, his loud tools (especially his power and speed) and lofty ceiling already have him pegged as a future extension candidate. Unfortunately, Springer already declined an extension offer from the Astros before reaching the major leagues—a contract similar to the one signed by first baseman Jon Singleton—suggesting that he believes he’ll ultimately command a larger contract in several years.

Springer will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2017, meaning he won’t become a free agent until after the 2020 season. But if the Astros were to approach Springer about a monster extension, something could get done after his first year of arbitration in 2017.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Though the Chicago Cubs failed to sign free-agent catcher Russell Martin last week, it doesn’t mean the team won’t have other intriguing options moving forward.

With plenty of money to spend on the open market this offseason and an opportunity to upgrade behind the plate, Cubs’ president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer made it clear in early November that the team would pursue Martin.

As expected, the Cubs made a serious attempt at signing him, offering the 31-year-old a deal in the ballpark of four years and $64 million. Meanwhile, news of the reported offer prompted Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports to name the Cubs as the front-runners to land Martin.

Martin and the Cubs seemed meant to be, but the Toronto Blue Jays wouldn’t let that happen, as they ultimately lured Martin north of the border with a five-year, $82 million pact.

However, Martin’s agent, Matt Colleran, told ESPNChicago’s Jesse Rogers that the Cubs were in the mix until the very end:

There were times throughout the process where it was Toronto and the Cubs, 1 and 2. They probably flipped spots in that process. One day the Cubs [were] going a little ahead, and the next Toronto was ahead. When we got into the [last] weekend the dollars started to come into play, and Toronto was just super aggressive with their approach.

Martin became a free agent following his best offensive campaign since 2007, as he batted .290/.402/.430 with 11 home runs and 67 RBI over 460 plate appearances for the Pirates. More significantly, Martin ranked second in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) at .370 and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 140 among all catchers with at least 450 plate appearances. He also ranked third in wins above replacement (fWAR) at 5.3.

Yet it’s what Martin does on the other side of the ball that made him such a coveted free agent—the kind a team is willing to overpay for.

According to ESPN.com, Martin registered a 38.5 percent caught-stealing rate and committed only three passed balls over 940.2 innings in 2014.

Beyond that, Martin also paced all catchers last season with 12 defensive runs saved—after saving 16 runs the previous year—and finished the season ranked as the third-best framer in the major leagues, according to Baseball Prospectus.

More on that from ESPN Stats & Info: “He got strikes on 85.5 percent of taken pitches in the zone, 12th-highest among the 42 catchers who caught the most pitches last season. That’s about 2.5 extra strikes for every 100 of those pitches above what an average catcher would get.”

Had he accepted the Cubs’ offer, Martin would have been an enormous upgrade over Welington Castillo as the team’s everyday backstop, presumably relegating Castillo to a backup role. It also would have put reserve catcher John Baker’s future with the club in jeopardy.

In 2014, Cubs’ catchers ranked 22nd among all 30 teams with a .672 OPS, 24th with an 85 wRC+ and 19th with a 6.6 fWAR.

Specifically, the 27-year-old Castillo regressed offensively and finished the season with a disappointing .237/.296/.389 batting line in 417 plate appearances, though he did hit a career-high 13 home runs. On the other side of the ball, Castillo ranked as the 97th-best pitch-framer in the game last season, according to Baseball Prospectus, as he cost Cubs pitchers 77.4 strikes and 10 runs.

With that in mind, it’s easy to see why the Cubs were all over Martin this offseason.

But just because they failed to sign the top free-agent catcher on the market doesn’t mean the team is done searching for an upgrade.

One player on the Cubs’ radar is Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero, reports Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, and the two teams have already spoken about the possibility of a deal.

Piecoro notes the Cubs recently pried Henry Blanco—who joined Arizona’s coaching staff last season after retiring as a player—away from the Diamondbacks to serve as the quality assurance coach under Joe Maddon, while ESPN.com’s Buster Olney wonders whether Blanco’s presence will “create any traction” for Chicago’s interest in Montero.

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince had the following to say about Montero, whom he listed as the 10th-best trade candidate this offseason:

The fears here are twofold, though: Montero makes a lot of money (another $40 million over the next three seasons) and he’s caught a lot of games. The wear and tear of the job seemed to get the best of him in 2013, when he had a .662 OPS. He did bounce back a bit in the doubles department this past season, so his slash line was a more respectable .243/.329/.370 (a solid line for a catcher), but there is no telling if he’ll cross the .800 OPS threshold again.

The D-backs don’t have an obvious backup plan in place should they move Montero, but this could be a way for them to free up some cash and land some pitching, although Montero‘s offensive downturn and hefty contract don’t help his value.

If the Cubs were to trade for the 31-year-old Montero, they’d likely be on the hook for a majority of the $40 million remaining on his contract over the next three seasons, via Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The Cubs might also explore trading for a younger catcher who’s a potential extension candidate, such as Jason Castro of the Houston Astros, though that’s merely my own speculation.

The Astros have made Castro available this offseason after acquiring Hank Conger earlier this month. General manager Jeff Luhnow previously told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the team is at least “50-50 on dealing away a catcher.”

Drellich also notes that Houston’s asking price for the 28-year-old catcher is steep even though the team hasn’t explored a long-term extension.  

If the Cubs can’t strike a practical deal with the Diamondbacks or Astros—or another viable trade candidate that enters the mix—then it might make sense to stick with Welington Castillo for the 2015 season.

Should the Cubs can make it through next season with Castillo as their primary catcher, chances are he’ll be a more valuable trade chip—that is, if you believe his 2014 numbers suggest room for improvement.

Plus, next year’s free-agent class will feature another elite catcher in Matt Wieters, who will presumably be targeted by most large-market teams provided he doesn’t sign an extension with the Orioles.

That being said, Epstein and Hoyer surely have an idea of the projected market for catchers moving forward, which is why they were willing to offer Martin, a catcher on the wrong side of 30, a four-year deal.

The Cubs may have missed out this time around, but it’s clear that adding an impact catcher to the equation, whether it be signing a free agent or executing a trade, remains one of their top priorities.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The market for free-agent hitters thinned out quickly Monday when the Boston Red Sox reportedly agreed to sign Pablo Sandoval, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, as well as Hanley Ramirez, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

With arguably the two best remaining free-agent bats now off the board, we should begin to see the market for secondary players—the guys who aren’t looking at a potential nine-figure payday—take shape.

It can be argued that some teams might have seen the Ramirez and Sandoval signings coming and decided to get ahead of the market. For example, the A’s snatched up Billy Butler last week for three years and $30 million, while the White Sox signed left-handed slugger Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million pact.

There’s still an intriguing crop of hitters available on the market, but with the winter meetings on the horizon, that might not be the case for much longer.

The market for pitching is a much different story, as class headliners Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are all waiting on each other to sign and establish a market rate for an ace. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the top relievers come off the board in the near future.

With all that said, here’s a look at free agents who could be the next to sign.

Chase Headley, 3B

Teams that missed out on Sandoval—including the Giants—and those that might have viewed Hanley Ramirez as an option at third base will now shift their attention to Chase Headley, the obvious beneficiary of Monday’s signings.

Headley has never been considered a potential near-$100 million free agent, but any team that signs him will be getting one of the more well-rounded players on the market.

By now, we all know that Headley isn’t going to be the guy that hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and 115 RBI with the Padres in 2012. Over the last two seasons, he’s batted .246/.338/.387 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI.

However, Headley’s career .347 on-base percentage and 10.3 percent walk rate highlight his ability to reach base at a favorable clip, and he still proved to be a slightly above-average player (103 wRC+) last season despite posting career worsts with a .243 batting average and .700 OPS.

Beyond that, FanGraphs recognized Headley as the top defensive third baseman in baseball last season, giving him the highest overall rating (22.8) thanks to an MLB-best 20.9 ultimate zone rating (UZR). More importantly, Headley also ranks first in both categories since the start of the 2012 season, with a 41.6 Def and 35.2 UZR.

One drawback with Headley is he’s entering his age-31 season and has seen his share of injuries in recent years. Specifically, thumb and back injuries limited him to 141 games in 2013, while leg and back issues resulted in 135 games played in 2014. At the same time, the fact that he played 161 games in both 2010 and 2012 could help ease some of the concerns regarding his durability.

As of now, there’s a relatively short list of teams reportedly in the market for Headley, but that’s sure to change in the wake of Sandoval’s signing. The Yankees are said to be interested in bringing him back next season, and the two sides have already had begun a dialogue, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com:

According to the source, a baseball executive who requested anonymity because he is not involved in the negotiations, doubts among the Yankees’ “baseball people” about the ability of [Alex] Rodriguez — who will not have played in a major league game in more than 18 months and will turn 40 on July 27 — to play third base regularly next season have made signing Headley a priority this winter.

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports believes the Giants are “likely” to pursue Headley after failing to re-sign Sandoval.

Even if it’s just a bidding war between the Yankees and Giants, there’s reason to believe Headley is going to sign sooner rather than later.

Andrew Miller, LHP

Andrew Miller, 29, was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2014, posting a 2.02 ERA, 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.5 walks per nine while appearing in 73 games for the Red Sox and Orioles.

Now, he’s looking to get paid like one of the best relievers in baseball.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported on Nov. 13 that 22 teams had contacted Miller. Now, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports hears that Miller has multiple three-year offers on the table.

According to a report from Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (h/t MLB Trade Rumors‘ Steve Adams), Miller is looking for nothing less than a four-year contract that has “astounding” average annual value. For what it’s worth, Morosi believes that multiple teams extending Miller three-year offers means he’ll likely to end up signing a four-year pact.

Normally, giving a deal of that length to a non-closer can be risky, especially one coming off a career-best season like Miller, where subsequent regression seems inevitable. But as David Schoenfield of ESPN.com writes, the market price for a reliable late-inning arms isn’t getting any cheaper, meaning Miller, entering his age-30 season, could be well worth the investment:

Miller doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, so a three- or four-year contract should lock up his prime years. For those who don’t think teams should spend big money on a bullpen, just look at your 2014 World Series winners. The Giants had a veteran bullpen with Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez all making at least $4 million. The days of relying solely on a bargain-basement-priced bullpen might be over.

As for the market, Zach Duke has been the only notable left-hander to sign this offseason, inking a three-year, $15 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. And once Miller comes off the board, there won’t be many viable options:

However, Miller isn’t your ordinary left-handed reliever; his dominance against both right- and left-handed hitters makes him a hot commodity, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously heard that some teams are considering him as a closer.

“I think Andrew’s evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he’s a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over,” Mark Rodgers, Miller’s agent, said via Crasnick.

Miller’s price tag will be steep, but the fact that he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, thanks to a midseason trade to Boston, means he’ll likely have a variety of potential suitors, and I’d expect all those clubs to make him favorable offers.

Colby Rasmus, OF

Colby Rasmus enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2013, batting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 458 plate appearances. His two other full seasons with the Blue Jays have been a much different story, a story featuring .225-or-worse batting averages, sub-.290 on-base percentages and worsening strikeout rates.

“Last year at the end of the season I definitely didn’t think I’d be in this position right now,” Rasmus said via John Lott of the National Post. “I thought things were looking up and I definitely was excited and didn’t see it going this way. But it is what it is. Baseball’s a crazy game, and it just didn’t work out for me.”

However, there’s reason to believe the 28-year-old Rasmus might still have some good seasons ahead of him. The left-handed hitter should continue to offer his usual above-average power in the coming years, as he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who drives the ball to all fields with authority.

The only potential impediment to Rasmus’ power output is his health, as he’s spent time on the disabled list in three of the last four seasons.

Lastly, the center fielder’s defense is bound to improve compared to his subpar showing in 2014.

It’s difficult to predict how the market will treat Rasmus, arguably the top reclamation project in this year’s free-agent class, but there’s definitely going to be a market, and soon.

Rasmus isn’t in the same tier as Melky Cabrera or Nick Markakis, obviously, but there’s still something to be said for a younger player capable of hitting 20 home runs and holding down center field. While he doesn’t benefit from a positional standpoint with the Ramirez and Sandoval signings, Rasmus’ stock does receive a slight boost given the lack of remaining power hitters on the market.

While some teams might offer him a cheap multiyear deal, Rasmus’ age and untapped potential make him a strong candidate to sign a one-year contract, hoping that a bounce-back performance nets him a big payday next offseason.

For what it’s worth, Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors believes Rasmus will sign a one-year deal worth $12 million but “would not be surprised if he ultimately scores a three-year pact.”

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The sweepstakes for Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas is down to four teams, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants all in the mix.

However, the last week has seen the Braves and Padres rise to the top and become front-runners to sign Tomas, and both clubs are now sending their top officials to meet with the 24-year-old in the Dominican Republic this weekend.

Unfortunately, it might be a few more weeks until either team can claim an offseason victory, as Tomas is “mulling a number of contract offers” and also considering attending next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, per Austin Laymance of MLB.com.

Until then, here’s a look at how signing Tomas might impact his top suitors.

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are viewed as one of the top suitors for Tomas, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required). On Thursday, Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans confirmed to KNBR radio (via a tweet from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the team is “very interested” in Tomas.

However, the Giants’ ability to sign Tomas is tied to free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s status. He’s currently listening to contract offers for upward of $100 million from multiple teams, including the Giants.

For what it’s worth, Evans sincerely believes the Giants are still in the mix to re-sign the three-time World Series champion. More on that from Schulman:

Evans spoke to Sandoval’s agent this morning. Contrary to the notion that Sandoval has no interest in returning to San Francisco, put forth in a report by KPIX on Wednesday, Evans said, ‘We’ve got every indication that we’re right in the middle of it.’

Evans said he understands that money and years will play the dominant role in Sandoval’s ultimate decision, but he still feels the Panda’s ties to San Francisco will play a role. ‘I think the interest is sincere,’ Evans said. ‘I think Pablo loves this fanbase as much as any player loves a fanbase, and that could go a long way.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Evans remained tight-lipped during the aforementioned radio interview when asked whether the Giants could afford to sign both Tomas and Sandoval.

The Giants lack viable internal options at third base and left field, and should they fail to re-sign Sandoval as well as free-agent Michael Morse—who hit 16 home runs last season on a one-year deal with the Giants—then it’d make sense to go all-in and meet Tomas’ lofty asking price.

“Power is the calling card for Tomas, a strong man with big lift in his swing,” writes Badler. “It’s 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, with a chance to hit 25-plus home runs over a full season, possibly more depending on contact frequency in game situations.”

Some evaluators, such as Badler, believe Tomas might be better off with a few months at the Triple-A level. However it’s safe to assume that if the Giants ultimately sign Tomas, they’ll expect him to make the jump directly to the major leagues and supplant Morse and Sandoval’s power in the heart of the lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been linked to Tomas for what feels like an eternity, and up until this week they were widely considered the front-runners to sign him.

Back on Nov. 5, Heyman wrote:

The Phillies are said by people in the know to be ‘all over’ Tomas, the outfielder/third baseman who has been holding private workouts in the Dominican Republic in recent days after a widely attended September showcase that is said to have drawn all 30 MLB teams.

However, recent reports suggest Philadelphia’s interest level has waned in the last few weeks, and the team might be ready to completely drop out of the sweepstakes for Tomas.

Per Paul Hagen of MLB.com:

The Phillies, once considered favorites to land free-agent outfielder Yasmany Tomas, have cooled on the idea of signing the 24-year-old Cuban defector, according to Major League sources.

While the Phils, who had a private workout with Tomas, still like his bat, there are concerns about his defense. They now view him as more of a designated hitter-type player, the sources added.

Of course, that thinking could change if the price for Tomas, once estimated to be as high as $100 million, begins to come down. The Phillies are trying to trade right fielder Marlon Byrd with an eye toward moving Domonic Brown from left to right. That would mean they would need to fill the vacancy in left internally (Grady Sizemore, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr) or from outside the organization.

I still view Tomas as a good fit for the Phillies given his age, raw power and overall potential, and in theory he’d give the team something to build around moving forward should they trade Hamels and launch a long-overdue rebuilding process. Plus, signing Tomas to play either right or left field would allow the Phillies to explore trades for Marlon Byrd and/or Domonic Brown.

Therefore, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Hagen’s latest report is nothing more than the Phillies attempting to soften a suddenly aggressive market for Tomas. And for what it’s worth, there was still one MLB executive that, as of Thursday, saw the Phillies as the the easy favorites to land Tomas this offseason, per a tweet from ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the latest team to enter the sweepstakes for Tomas, according MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, and they’re quickly emerging as one of the favorites.

Meanwhile, Heyman also hears the Braves are interested in Tomas, noting the team is set to see him in a private workout:

The Braves could qualify as a surprise team, but they recently made room in the outfield by trading Jason Heyward. They also have been in trade talks involving outfielders Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, but new Braves president of baseball operations John Hart has long loved power hitters, as folks may recall from his Cleveland and Texas days.

Whether the Braves actually try to sign Tomas is likely to hinge on their plans for Upton; it doesn’t strike me as a coincidence that news of Atlanta’s sudden interest in Tomas emerged at the same time as reports suggesting Upton is available.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes the Braves will trade Upton before pulling the trigger on Tomas:

To be in position to sign either Lester or Tomas, the Braves would likely first have to trade Justin Upton, who is owed $14.5 million before becoming eligible for free agency next year. Upton’s market is improved by the fact that he is being made available at a time when there are not many attractive outfielders on the free-agent market.

If the Braves expect to sign Tomas, it makes sense for them to first deal Upton in exchange for prospects, presumably pitchers. With Upton out, the team would then be free to deploy Tomas in left field or possibly even right should Evan Gattis be moved to the outfield.

San Diego Padres

A.J. Preller appears poised to make a splash in his first offseason as general manager of the Padres, as he’s currently on the brink of landing two of the top hitters in this year’s free-agent class.

The Padres are believed to be one of three teams in the mix to sign third baseman Pablo Sandoval, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted Thursday that San Diego was expected to offer him a five-year deal in the $90 to $95 million range.

Meanwhile, Preller has continued to aggressively pursue Tomas, targeting the Cuban outfielder for his universal power and middle-of-the-order potential.

From Corey Brock of MLB.com:

The Padres have scouted 24-year-old outfielder Tomas on several occasions and have also looked at him at third base, Preller said recently. A report in recent weeks discounted the Padres’ chances, but a source said Wednesday the Padres are still considering Tomas. …

… Tomas is believed to be seeking at least a five- to seven-year deal with an annual salary near $15 million, but the Tomas camp has not ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term, high-value deal that would allow him to return to the free-agent market sooner.

FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweeted Thursday that he’d heard the Padres were still in the mix for Tomas and were willing to offer him up to $70 million, which could be a potential steal depending on the length of the contract.

Regardless, the fact that the Padres are trying to secure not one but two impact hitters this offseason is a huge step in the right direction.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Add Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang to the list of international free agents hoping to make the jump to the major leagues in 2015.

The 27-year-old Kang is expected to be posted this offseason by the Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization, though Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports hears it’s unlikely to happen until after the winter meetings (Dec. 7 through 11).

Regardless, Kang, who batted .356/.459/.739 with a career-high 40 home runs in 117 games for Nexen this past season, will soon become one of the more sought after free agents in a class that’s thin on impact hitters, let alone ones with legitimate power from a middle-infield position.

Kang was drafted by the Hyundai Unicorns in the second round of the 2006 KBO draft and made his professional debut later that year. However, the 19-year-old’s playing time was limited, as he served primarily as a defensive replacement and appeared in only 10 games, and he didn’t help his cause by going 3-for-20 at the plate.

Unfortunately, Kang’s sophomore campaign with the Unicorns the following year was eerily similar to his professional debut, as he went just 2-for-15 and appeared in 20 games, mostly as a defensive replacement.

Kang finally received regular playing time in 2008, though the circumstances surrounding the 21-year-old’s ascent to everyday-player status was interesting, to say the least.

From Steve Sypa of Amazin’ Avenue:

In 2008, the Hyundai Unicorns disbanded, and in its place, the Woori Heroes were born. Issues between Woori Bank, individual team owners (a rarity in Asian sports, in which teams are generally a subsidiary of their corporate sponsors), and the KBO led to Woori breaking the naming deal, leaving the Heroes unable to pay most of their veteran players. The team was forced to trade most of its star players and veterans, paving the way for the 21-year-old Jung-Ho Kang to get regular playing time.

The right-handed hitting Kang made the most of the opportunity and emerged as one of the KBO’s premier young talents, batting .271/.334/.392 with 27 extra-base hits in 116 games. He continued to make strides the following year with a .286/.349/.508 batting line in 133 games, but it was Kang’s improved power (23 home runs, 33 doubles) that really put him on the map.

Kang didn’t show as much power as a 23-year-old in 2010, amassing 12 home runs and 30 doubles in 133 games, but he still managed a career-best .301 batting average to go along with an .848 OPS. Kang’s production regressed even more in 2011; he still hit a very respectable .282, but tallied only nine home runs and 22 doubles in 123 games.

The 2012 season was when everything seemed to click for Kang, as he raked at a .314 clip over 124 games while contributing 25 home runs and 32 doubles. More importantly, Kang demonstrated vastly improved plate discipline by accruing nearly as many walks (71) as strikeouts (78), and he also came out of nowhere with a career-high 21 stolen bases.

Kang failed to build off his success in 2013, batting .291 with a career-worst 109 strikeouts over 126 games, but he still showed good power and speed with 22 home runs, 21 doubles and 15 stolen bases.

And then there’s Kang’s video game numbers from his latest campaign, which basically tell the whole story: .356/.459/.739 with 40 home runs, 36 doubles and 117 RBI.

Yeah—pretty good.

But how will Kang’s robust power and production translate in the majors next season? Luckily, there’s enough video of Kang from the past two years to get a feel for his swing and general offensive strength.

At 6’0”, 210 pounds, Kang’s upright setup at the plate allows him to employ an elongated and distinct leg kick, which is relatively common among power hitters. However, Kang tries to hold his weight on his backside for as long as possible, which in turn forces him to rush his front-foot timing and prevents him from achieving a favorable point of contact. Surprisingly, he does appear to maintain good balance throughout his swing and doesn’t land as violently on his front side as you’d expect.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kang struggles against good velocity in the big leagues, as his swing and timing mechanism could make him susceptible to fastballs on the inner half. That being said, Kang does possess above-average bat speed to go along with raw power to all fields, and he should run into his share of pitches even if he fails to hit for average.

Defensively, Kang appears to move well at shortstop, showing good athleticism with at least average range in all directions, and he also plays the position with a sense of creativity that aids him in making difficult plays. Kang’s arm strength is probably a better fit at second base than shortstop, but his smooth transfer and arm stroke allow him to get rid of the ball quickly without sacrificing any accuracy.

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports has some concerns about Kang’s ability to remain at shortstop, but he believes that Kang will able to offset any defensive shortcoming with 15-20 home runs in a given season.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) also expects Kang’s power to translate in the major leagues:

…I see a swing that will generate legit plus power even once he leaves his hitter-friendly home park in the Yangcheon District of Seoul. Kang has a huge leg kick and gets his lead foot down late, which could create timing issues, but the swing is rotational, and I don’t think the power surge he has had the past three years is strictly a function of the rising level of offense in the KBO. 

Law also has his doubts about Kang’s long-term future at shortstop, though he says he’d give Kang “every chance to show he can handle the position, especially given the scarcity in the middle infield in this free-agent crop.”

Once Nexen officially posts Kang, teams will be able to bid freely on the 27-year-old to determine negotiating rights. Should Nexen accept the highest bid, which Nitkowski estimates will be somewhere in the $5 million to $8 million range, then Kang will be clear to sign with an MLB team.

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe believes Kang will get “serious money” this offseason, and names the St. Louis Cardinals as a team that could be interested in Kang’s services. Meanwhile, a report from Global Sporting Integration (via The Korea Times) notes that the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks have all scouted Kang in Korea.

It’s still too early to say which teams stand the best chance of landing Kang this offseason, or for that matter how much they might be willing to pay, but it’s clear there won’t be a shortage of potential suitors for the 27-year-old shortstop.

All stats courtesy of koreabaseball.com unless otherwise noted.

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Free agency isn’t just about which teams land the top players on the market. It’s also an opportunity for teams to find value where others don’t.

Teams are always on the hunt for potential reclamation projects, as every free-agent class features a crop of players who, for any number of reasons, are overlooked and/or undervalued on the open market. These players typically are believed to have some remaining upside and therefore represent low-risk, high-reward options at the cost of a one- or two-year deal.

Last offseason, the Miami Marlins signed third baseman Casey McGehee to a one-year, $1.1 million contract, procuring him from the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The then-31-year-old went on to win the 2014 National League Comeback Player of the Year Award, batting .287/.355/.357 with 76 RBI while playing in 160 games.

Here’s a look at some of the top reclamation projects available in this year’s free-agent class.

Brandon Morrow, RHP

Some pitchers simply are blessed with filthy stuff. Brandon Morrow is one of them.

Morrow, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2006 draft, was rushed to the major leagues on the merits of his stuff, logging only 16 minor league innings before winning a spot in the Mariners’ 2007 Opening Day bullpen.

Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s control was an utter mess during his three seasons (2007-09) with Seattle, as he walked 5.8 batters per nine innings and posted a 4.56 FIP. Still, the right-hander proved he could miss bats consistently in the late innings, piling up 204 strikeouts in 197.2 innings, and he also tallied 16 saves during that time frame.

The Mariners traded Morrow, 25 at the time, to the Blue Jays following the 2009 season for reliever Brandon League. Toronto decided to convert him to a full-time starter—Morrow started only 15 of his 131 games with Seattle—for the 2010 season.

Morrow pitched to a 3.49 FIP (4.16 ERA) during his first three seasons in Toronto, striking out 489 batters in 450.1 innings (9.8 K/9).

In 2010, Morrow put himself on the map with a 17-strikeout performance as part of a one-hit shutout. The following year, the right-hander led the American League with 10.19 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Things seemed to come together for Morrow in 2012, as he set new career bests with a 2.96 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.115 WHIP and 3.0 BB/9 over 21 starts. However, he also missed 64 games due to a strained oblique muscle in what was the first of many seasons marred by injuries.

A nerve issue in his right forearm limited Morrow to only 10 starts in 2013, while a tendon sheath injury on his right index finger this past season led to a career-low 33.1 innings pitched. Overall, the right-hander made just 23 appearances (16 starts) for the Blue Jays over the past two seasons, posting a 5.65 ERA (4.78 FIP), 1.551 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 during that time frame.

As a free agent—the Blue Jays declined his $10 million option for 2015—Morrow, 30, should receive plenty of interest as a potential one-year lottery ticket since his combination of age, prior success and pure stuff make him an intriguing upside play.

Morrow showed good velocity when he was healthy over the last two seasons, but he threw especially hard out of the Blue Jays bullpen this past September, averaging 97.49 mph on his fastball while topping out at 100.72 mph. Plus, he still boasts two legit swing-and-miss pitches in his slider and splitter.

That being said, harnessing Morrow’s command will be a challenge for whoever signs him, though that could also come down to whether he’s deployed as a starter or reliever. The right-hander should offer value in either role, though his season-high innings total of 179.1 and extensive injury history means his workload will probably be managed carefully as a starter.

Morrow is likely to land a low-risk, high-reward one-year contract this offseason because, well, he’s still plenty nasty. The only question is whether he can stay on the field for an extended period of time.

Justin Masterson, RHP

Justin Masterson delivered a long-overdue breakout performance in 2013, posting a 3.45 ERA (3.35 FIP) with a 58 percent ground-ball rate and 195 strikeouts in 193 innings.

The Indians attempted to extend the right-hander following the season with a three-year, $45 million deal, but Masterson rejected the offer in favor of playing out his walk year, banking on another All-Star-caliber performance to drive up his future value as a free agent.

Masterson’s plan backfired, however, as he pitched to a dismal 5.51 ERA and walked 5.84 batters per nine innings over 19 starts, prompting the Indians to trade him to St. Louis before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. But the change of scenery didn’t resolve Masterson’s struggles (7.04 ERA in 30.2 innings), and he failed to make the Cardinals’ postseason roster.

However, there are signs suggesting the soon-to-be 30-year-old might be poised for a bounce-back performance next season. For starters, he maintained a strong ground-ball rate of 58.2 percent despite a career-worst 14.6 percent home-run-to-ground-ball rate and .339 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In terms of his stuff, Masterson’s sinker still induces plenty of groundballs, and he’s continued to miss bats with his slider.

However, Masterson’s command has never been great and was especially bad last season, making him an intriguing reclamation project as a free agent. The right-hander likely is looking at a one-year contract given his enormous struggles last season, but at the same time, there could be teams willing to offer him a multiyear pact.

Colby Rasmus, OF

Colby Rasmus enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2013, batting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 458 plate appearances. His two other full seasons with the Blue Jays have been a much different story, a story featuring .225-or-worse batting averages, sub-.290 on-base percentages and worsening strikeout rates.

However, there’s reason to believe the 28-year-old Rasmus might still have some good seasons ahead of him. The left-handed hitter should continue to offer his usual above-average power in the coming years, as he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who drives the ball to all fields with authority.

The only potential impediment to Rasmus’ power output is his health, as he’s spent time on the disabled list in three of the last four seasons. Lastly, the center fielder’s defense is bound to improve compared to his subpar showing in 2014.

It’s difficult to predict how the market will treat Rasmus, arguably the top reclamation project in this year’s free-agent class. While some teams might offer him a cheap multiyear deal, Rasmus’ age and untapped potential make him a strong candidate to sign a one-year contract, hoping that a bounce-back performance nets him a big payday next offseason.

Josh Johnson, RHP

Josh Johnson was utterly dominant from 2009 to 2011, ranking first among all qualified starters in FIP (2.74) and fourth in ERA (2.64). The right-hander also ranked 13th in fWAR (13.0), which was particularly impressive considering he made only 70 starts and logged 453 innings during that time frame.

Johnson’s breakout year was 2010, when he led the National League with a 2.30 ERA and 180 ERA+ and paced the major leagues with a 2.41 FIP. He opened the 2011 season with a 1.64 ERA over his first nine starts, but shoulder inflammation in mid-May resulted in a trip to the disabled list and ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

Johnson rebounded in 2012 to post a 3.81 ERA (3.40 FIP) over 31 starts in what turned out to be his final season in Miami, as the Marlins sent him, Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Blue Jays in a blockbuster trade.

But Johnson—a year away from free agency—struggled with his new team, as he registered a 6.20 ERA (4.62 FIP) over 16 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a forearm strain. Johnson’s free-agent stock took another hit during the offseason after he underwent surgery to remove bone spurs.

The San Diego Padres ended up taking a flier on Johnson last winter in the form of a one-year, $8 million deal, but he ended up needing Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season.

The 30-year-old is looking at a much smaller one-year deal this offseason, and he’ll have to prove he can still make an impact against big-league hitters. That said, it’s not surprising that five to six teams have already reached out to the right-hander, according to a tweet from Dennis Lin of the U-T San Diego.

After all, we’ve all seen what a healthy Josh Johnson is capable of.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball and Baseball-Reference.com.

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The Cubs‘ future was on display late last summer with franchise cornerstones Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro playing on the same field as highly regarded prospects such as Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara.

Suffice it to say, the future is bright on the North Side of Chicago.

After stockpiling the Cubs farm system with top-flight hitters for almost three years, President Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer seem poised to make a splash this season on the open market, targeting free-agent pitchers such as Jon Lester and Max Scherzer to headline the starting rotation for years to come.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, the lack of available impact pitchers in this year’s free-agent class means other teams will also be targeting the aforementioned aces. If that’s the case, then we might finally see the Cubs tap into their wealth of talent on the farm and trade for a comparable pitcher.

Epstein and Hoyer have mentioned on multiple occasions they don’t plan on trading one of their shortstops anytime soon. However, the aftermath of the Scherzer and Lester signings could change that, leaving the Cubs no other choice but to pursue front-of-the-rotation arms via trades.

If that were to happen, the Cubs could still draw a huge return by making shortstop prospect Addison Russell available.

Here is what you need to know about Russell.

The No. 11 overall pick in the 2012 draft, Russell, 20, missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury prior to being dealt to the Cubs in early July. However, the shortstop seemingly benefited from the change of scenery, batting .294/.332/.536 with 12 home runs, 11 doubles and 36 RBI in 50 games at Double-A Tennessee. The only thing Russell didn’t do this season was steal bases though that should have been expected after he missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury.

At the plate, Russell makes lots of hard contact thanks to his plus bat speed and innate bat-to-ball skills, and he’s really started driving the ball to all fields over the last year. His swing will get long at times, but Russell gets through the zone so quickly that his average won’t suffer due to strikeout totals. Lastly, his mature approach and pitch recognition will lead to plenty of walks and high on-base percentages during his career.

The right-handed hitter’s combination of bat speed, explosive hip rotation and a deep point of contact should produce above-average power at the highest level and possibly more depending on his physical development in the coming years. And given his plate coverage and feel for using the entire field, Russell should always tally a high number of doubles and triples.

On the basepaths, Russell is an above-average runner with the athleticism and instincts to steal 15-20 bags annually but was significantly less aggressive this season after missing the first half with a hamstring injury.

Defensively, Russell still has room left to improve though he already possesses incredible range to both sides and is especially slick when charging the ball. His plus arm strength allows him to make throws from virtually anywhere on the infield, but there also are times when he doesn’t set himself properly and uncorks inaccurate throws.

Unfortunately, Russell lacks a clear path to the major leagues with current shortstop Starlin Castro under contract through at least 2019 and Javier Baez capable of replacing him at the position after moving to second base.

However, some experts, such as ESPN Insider Keith Law (subscription required), believe that Russell will be the team’s best option at shortstop moving forward:

Russell is the best shortstop of the entire group, so his arrival could hasten a chain of position switches with Baez going to third and Bryant to right field. It also could put Starlin Castro, who is showing signs of life with the bat again, on the trade block in the next 12 months, depending on Russell’s health and progress in the minors.

For now, though, it seems that the Cubs won’t be making any hasty position changes, according to Epstein, via Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors:

The nice thing about having impact players who are athletic, can play in the middle of the field, and can hit is that it gives you options.  You can never have too many shortstops and you look around baseball and you see some of the best outfielders in the game came up as shortstops and the same for the best third basemen and second basemen.  We feel that Baez is a shortstop but we’re also comfortable that he can play second base or third base or outfield if he has to.  Addison Russell has versatility to play all over the infield, Bryant can also go out to right field with a relatively smooth transition, Alcantara can play shortstop or second base or be one heck of an outfielder…They can all fit on the field together.

According to Links, Epstein also said that the acquisition of Russell had “nothing to do” with Castro.

Of course, that plan could change once Scherzer and Lester come off the board, as the Cubs would then have no choice but to pursue a trade if they truly want to land a add a front-of-the-rotation starter.

So far, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the Cubs have shown interest in Cole Hamels though Philadelphia‘s asking steep asking price of “at least three top prospects” suggests a deal between the two times might not happen any time soon.

However, if Epstein and Hoyer were to explicitly state Russell is available, then they might receive a flurry of offers from around the league, allowing them to feel out the rest of the trade market before having to commit to Hamels.

Though Russell is yet to achieve the major league level, the 20-year-old has the makings of an All-Star-caliber shortstop capable of hitting in the middle of a lineup—and those simply don’t come around often.

It won’t be easy for Epstein and crew to part ways with Russell at this stage in his development, but doing so could be the difference between a good and great offseason for the Cubs.

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The free-agent market is yet to develop, but it’s only a matter of time until the dominoes will start to fall. When they do, expect the trade market to take shape as well.

Front-of-the-rotation pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields headline this year’s crop of free-agent starters, while Pablo Sandoval and Cuban prospect Yasmany Tomas stand out among hitters in a class that’s thin on impact players.

With just a few franchise-caliber players on the market—players that a team would plan to build around—it wouldn’t be surprising if there were a flurry of trades made this offseason. After all, most teams can’t afford or will miss out on one of the few elite free agents in this year’s class.

With that said, here are three potential trade targets who could be game-changers for any franchise.

Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves

Heyward had a solid offensive season, batting .271/.351/.384 over 649 plate appearances, but his 11 home runs marked his lowest total since breaking into the major leagues in 2010. The 25-year-old also scored 74 runs and swiped 20 bags in 149 games, and he led all Braves players with a 5.1 fWAR.

Heyward’s WAR was largely tied to his Gold Glove defense in right field, as he led all qualified major leaguers at the position in both defensive runs saved (32) and ultimate zone rating (24.1), per FanGraphs.

The Braves approached Heyward back in 2013 about an extension worth less than the five-year, $75 million contract they recently gave to B.J. Upton, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, both parties haven’t discussed a potential extension since then.

After talking with Braves president of operations John Hart, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn’t believe the Braves will try to extend Jason Heyward this offseason. Heyward is set to make $8.3 million after hitting a few incentives in his contract his past season, O’Brien tweets.

The trade market for Heyward will come down to whether teams believe he’s open to signing an extension before hitting the open market next winter. And if they’re willing to offer him an extension in the first place, then it’s fair to assume they also believe he can re-discover the power that produced 27 home runs in 2012, rather than the 25 he’s totaled over the last two seasons.

Even if that doesn’t happen, we’re still talking about a 25-year-old with a four-win floor moving forward. The fact that Heyward is a year away from free agency might hurt his overall trade value, but I’d still expect a team to give up two quality young players for the right fielder, with one possibly being a cost-controlled big leaguer.

Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels, who turns 31 in December, will make $96 million over the final four years of his contract, not including a $20 million vesting option for 2019. He also has a 20-team no-trade clause and nine-team block list in his contract, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, as of now, the only team known not to be included on either list is the Chicago Cubs, according to a tweet from ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Hamels has made at least 30 starts in seven consecutive seasons while eclipsing 200 innings all but once during that time frame. During his nine-year career with the Phillies, the left-hander has pitched to a 3.27 ERA (3.48 FIP), 8.53 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 1,801.1 innings, good for a 34.4 fWAR.

Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia is asking for a flattering return on Hamels in the form of “at least three top prospects,” two of whom are capable of contributing in the major leagues, per Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

That said, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is prepared to wait and see how the market for free agents Max Scherzer and Jon Lester unfolds before deciding whether to deal his ace left-hander, per Salisbury.

Cole is still a really valuable player for us. He’s going to help us win baseball games. As I’ve said before, we have him under contract and he kind of traverses the timeline and the goals that we, at least in our mind, have set. He can still be pitching for us when it’s time for us to be contending.

“He’s really kind of in the sweet spot and there is no reason to do anything with him because he’s going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, we believe, over the next five years of his contract. There’s no pressure to move him, no necessity to do it and, frankly, I’m not dying to move him. If there is an opportunity that is going to make our organization better off then you have to consider it because we’re considering everything.

Hamels is the only trade candidate—unless the Marlins fail to extend slugger Giancarlo Stanton—worth the king’s ransom the Phillies are demanding. However, teams aren’t going to sell the farm, literally and figuratively, to get him this early in the offseason, which is why Amaro will patiently wait for Scherzer and/or Lester to come off the board.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington Nationals

A strong case can be made that Jordan Zimmermann, not Stephen Strasburg, is the Washington Nationals’ ace.

Zimmermann, 28, went 14-5 with a 2.66 ERA (2.68 FIP), 8.20 K/9 and 1.31 BB/9 over 199.2 innings this past season, capping off his career-best season with a no-hitter on the final day of the regular season. The right-hander’s 5.2 fWAR ranked second among National League starting pitchers, trailing only Clayton Kershaw (7.2).

Zimmermann has a 3.00 ERA in 122 starts over the past four seasons, and he’s now made exactly 32 starts in three consecutive years. Meanwhile, the right-hander dominated the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of the NLDS this year, allowing just one run on three hits in 8.2 innings.

Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post thinks the Nationals should prioritize working out a long-term contract extension with Zimmermann during the offseason. However, the two sides aren’t engaged in discussions at the moment, tweets James Wagner of the Washington Post.

Meanwhile, Kilgore also notes that any deal the Nats offer Zimmermann will likely be the richest in franchise history, topping the seven-year, $126 million contract given to Jayson Werth prior to the 2011 season.

Zimmermann, a two-time All-Star, will make $16.5 million in 2015 and hit the open market after the season, so any team interesting in trading for the right-hander will need to believe it can lock him up with a long-term contract.

According to CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman, the Nationals would only trade Zimmermann if they received “a boatload in return,” which he describes as “at least three really good, young, big-league-ready players.”

A trade involving Zimmermann seems unlikely, especially with one year remaining on his contract and Washington poised to contend in 2015. However, that could change if the Phillies decide to move Cole Hamels, which in turn would define the going exchange rate for an ace-caliber pitcher.

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The sweepstakes for outfielder Yasmany Tomas appears to be winding down.

The 24-year-old outfielder could sign with a team as soon as this weekend, according to Jorge Arangure of Vice Sports, and when he does, he’s expected to become the highest-paid Cuban player in baseball history. Yet, amazingly, Tomas isn’t the Cuban prospect everyone is talking about.

That honor belongs to Yoan Moncada, whose open workout in Guatemala on Wednesday was seen by an “estimated 60-70 scouts,” per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. The 19-year-old infielder has quickly emerged as one of the more hyped prospects in recent memory and is expected to destroy the record for spending on an amateur player.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Moncada is expected to receive $30 to $40 million, putting him in the same range as fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes ($36 million) and Yasiel Puig ($42 million).

The only difference is that Moncada’s age and lack of professional experience will make him an amateur international free agent and therefore subject to international spending restrictions.

So what does that mean? Well, any team willing to give Moncada $30 to $40 million basically will be ignoring its bonus pool, as they’ll be forced to pay a 100 percent luxury on all overages and face other spending limitations in subsequent years.

But before we get too far into the specifics of Moncada’s potential deal, let’s take a look at the guy set to rewrite the international market.

Background

Moncada debuted with Cienfuegos in Serie Nacional in 2012-13 as a 17-year-old, playing alongside 2014 American League Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu. The switch-hitter enjoyed a strong rookie season, batting .283/.414/.348 in 172 plate appearances to go along with 13 steals.

Ben Badler of Baseball America notes some of Moncada’s other accomplishments from that season:

Moncada also made his mark at the league’s All-Star Game, where Cuba holds certain skill competitions in addition to a Home Run Derby. Among the events are races to first base and around the bases. At the 2012-13 All-Star Game, Moncada won both races, beating Rusney Castillo, a 70 runner on the 20-80 scale, and Guillermo Heredia, a 60 runner who started in center field in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.

The 2013-14 season was Moncada’s last in Serie Nacional, and he went out on a high note after batting .273/.365/.406 in 195 plate appearances.

Back in early November, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported Moncada had defected from Cuba and established residency in Guatemala. However, the lack of information surrounding his departure from the island, as well as the relative ease with which he established residency, has raised eyebrows within baseball’s inner circles, says Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs:

It’s assumed by people in the international baseball industry that Moncada is at some juncture in the same process that Puig was in and that Moncada will be ‘found’ once the right people get paid, which could be any day or much longer. It may not be pretty, but this is what elite Cuban baseball players have to do to get paid these days.

Passan suggests something similar and wonders whether the Cuban government truly allowed Moncada to leave:

They wonder how he got to Guatemala, and how he did so on what his handlers say is a legal Cuban passport, meaning the government OK’d his departure, something never before done for a high-level ballplayer. Further, they speculate how much money it’s going to take to sign him. And then they try to understand how one kid from Cuba could change the entire structure of amateur talent around the world.

He goes on to mention that Moncada will become a free agent once Major League Baseball has finished its standard investigation into his residency in Guatemala and the Office of Foreign Assets Control has officially cleared him to sign with a team.

Scouting Report

I’ll be the first to admit that, like most people, I’ve never seen Moncada play in person. That said, it’s clear we’re talking about a potentially elite prospect.

Per McDaniel:

Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6’1″, 210-pound frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above-average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet, and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age. 

Meanwhile, Mayo reached out to sources that attended Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala on Wednesday, with one scouting director saying the teenager is “worth going way over your international spending pool.” Mayo added:

Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. He reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. Moncada swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that he didn’t face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out Moncada‘s tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:

Hit – 60
Power – 60
Speed – 70
Arm – 60
Field – 50

There is no available video of Moncada at the moment, so unfortunately all we have to go on are industry articles and various reports. However, it’s enough to know that if the baseball community is this excited about Moncada, then we should be, too.

Free Agency

It’s a foregone conclusion that the team that signs Moncada will set a record for spending on international amateur free agents and then be forced to pay a 100 percent tax on the overage.

The real question is: How soon will Moncada be able to sign?

McDaniel shares his insight on the matter:

If Moncada is declared a free agent between now and July 2, 2015, then [the Red Sox and New York Yankees] have an advantage as they have huge revenues and have already gone over their pool amount and paid the penalty. To sign him, any team would go over their pool and pay the overage, but teams that are under their pool would want their year to go over their pool to also include a full crop of July 2 players to make up for the two-year penalty.

Conversely, if Moncada becomes a free agent any time from July 2, 2015 to 2017, those two clubs have no chance to bid on him because of the two-year penalty. 

Suddenly it makes more sense why there were 60 to 70 scouts in attendance at his showcase Wednesday. Yet Passan still pegs a select few teams as the potential front-runners to sign Moncada:

So far, the closest any team has come to shattering its pool with one player is the Los Angeles Angels, who signed 20-year-old infielder Roberto Baldoquin for $8 million last week. Moncada is considered a far superior prospect, and with the Angels, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox among the teams that have exceeded their 2014 pools by 15 percent, the incentive exists to go strong on Moncada. Few avenues still exist to outright buy amateur talent, and as MLB goes forward, this may represent among the last.

The seemingly imminent sweepstakes for Moncada will be something baseball has never dealt with before, though it’s yet to be seen what action, if any, the league will take to prevent such a deal. However, keep in mind that any team willing to spend beyond its international bonus pool is free to do so but will be subject to the aforementioned taxes and signing restrictions in future years.

The process behind Moncada becoming a free agent may take some time, especially if there are concerns regarding his departure from Cuba. But make no mistake about it: The teenage phenom has already seared his name into our minds.

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There’s only one game remaining on this year’s Arizona Fall League schedule, but it’s a big one.

The Salt River Rafters (17-11-4) and Peoria Javelinas (15-4-3) will play in the AFL Championship Game on Saturday, beginning at 3:08 p.m. ET and airing on MLB Network/MLB.com.

Meanwhile, the other notable offseason leagues, such as the Dominican, Puerto Rican and Venezuelan Winter Leagues, are in the middle of their respective regular seasons, with the postseason still roughly a few months away. And as it’s the case every year, some of this year’s AFL participants will head out to extend their seasons in one of the winter leagues.

Unfortunately, the overlap across the four aforementioned offseason leagues will soon end. But before it does, we’ve got you covered with an up-to-date look—based on our year-end top 100 rankings, but adjusted to reflect changes since the article was published—at the top 25 prospects playing winter ball this year.

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