Kuzul

Fantasy baseball—quite possibly the most complex and exhausting fantasy sport there is.

Fantasy baseball managers are often burying their heads in rankings, projections and even articles such as this one. But why? Fantasy baseball isn’t much more than a game of statistics and a player’s history. It doesn’t take an “expert” to tell you that Albert Pujols is consistent or that Buster Posey has upside: The numbers say it all.

Some may be overwhelmed by the vast amounts of statistical categories involved in fantasy baseball— from ERA (Earned-Run Average) to the more obscure BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play).

Rankings are based off of somewhat complex calculations, and often vary greatly depending on the source. You may see Jacoby Ellsbury as high as 10, and as low as 25—not much of a help when you’re deciding whether or not to draft him. Situations like that lead me to my main point: Research the players.

When researching players, you not only find the projections and rankings along the way but you have a better understanding as to the type of player you are drafting. 

Rankings and projections poorly take into account injuries, current news and player types. I will use Jacoby Ellsbury as an example once again, as he just happens to be my pick for AL East bust of the year. In 2011, Ellsbury posted a ridiculous stat line for a lead off hitter—.321 avg/32 HR/105 R/119 RBI/39 SB.

That’s an impressive season, and I can see why Ellsbury is seen as a top option in the outfield—until you look at all of the numbers.

In 2010, Ellsbury only played in 18 games, his season being marred by an injury. In two full season from 2008-2009 Jacoby never had more than 9 homers and 60 runs batted in, yet he is projected to hit at least 20 homers and 75 runs batted in. Something doesn’t seem right here, and drafting him based of of these projected numbers may very well leave you very unsatisfied.

During 2011, pitcher Tim Stauffer posted a modest 3.73 ERA. What is misleading about this rather unproven pitcher is his numbers within the splits. At home, in San Diego, Stauffer was very effective with a 2.57 ERA. The problem is, San Diego is a very pitcher friendly park. On the road, his ERA was 4.97. The road ERA is more of a testament to Stauffer’s talent and more accurately shows what you should expect of him on a regular basis. To add to my point, Stauffer had an ERA of 2.97 through the first half of the season. After the break, he managed just a 5.05 ERA. Ending a season in such a horrible fashion as an unproven pitcher should strike fear into anyone drafting him—even though his 2011 ERA of 3.73 doesn’t suggest that.

As a fantasy baseball manager, you should expect to win only if you research deeper into statistics and historical values; they’ll prove much more telling than ranking, ADP and projections.

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Every year, without skipping a beat, a fantasy baseball manager will find disappointment in his early first or second round pick. When drafting, consistency is the key but it is easy to be swayed by the flashy numbers.

A bust is not a player you expect to succumb to regression due to age as he enters the uncomfortable “past his prime” stage of his career. Any decent fantasy baseball owner expects this when drafting. A bust, as I will predict, are players on the rise that have become so popular, that their expectations far exceed their potential outcome.

Here are players from each division who are sure to upset the willing manager that drafts them.

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Major League Baseball definitely did not disappoint this year when it comes to buzz in the media. As fantasy owners, you may find yourselves in a familiar place; deciding what to make of these relatively over-hyped foreign prospects.

Most of the attention as been focused on Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers and Yoenis Cespedes of the Oakland Athletics.

Although I won’t get into Yu Darvish in this article, I will say that he seems to be a much better fit than the likes of Daisuke Matsuzaka was just a few years ago. I will however, explain to why you may be a better manager by ignoring the enticing Yoenis Cespedes.

Oakland A’s: Sure, Yoenis may be considered by many as one of the best talents to ever come from Cuba—but that may not matter much with what looks to be a very disappointing Oakland A’s lineup.

According to Yahoo Sports, the Athletics hit 114 home runs and scored 645 runs in 2011. This put them 12th in the American League in both categories. That doesn’t seem so bad, right?

It may, once you realize that that was before both Josh Willingham and David DeJesus left the club—players who together accounted for 39 homers and 129 runs. Hideki Matsui is also not expected to return.

This puts Yoenis in a lineup with the likes of Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Kurt Suzuki, and Seth Smith. Not exactly a lineup one would expect to produce. Almost certainly not a lineup that gives Cespedes an easy task of performing for fantasy owners.

The hype: Although this shouldn’t play a large role in the progression of a player, it almost always does. Fantasy owners often jump at the chance to draft the hottest new names, especially when they are foreign players we have not been able to watch. I know I did last year when I drafted Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but we’ll stop talking about that now.

As far as Cespedes goes, I think he looks the part of a good five-tool player in the right atmosphere. He’s just not a fantasy monster in my eyes. The hype he receives will surely prove to be more than his performance demands.

Transition: Once again, this is a seemingly small obstacle for a professional baseball player, but we have come to learn that the media is relentless when it comes to these cherished foreign talents—often providing a very uncomfortable transitional period.

Fortunately for Cespedes, the Oakland A’s are not in what I would call a media frenzy of a city. None the less, the attention he will see nationwide will prove to be overpowering and only hurt his chances at success in the MLB.

Draft Position: With the deceptive statistics fantasy owners find while researching Cespedes, many leagues will surely see him being drafted much earlier than what is deserving.

If you are anything like me and constantly run mock drafts, you may be persuaded to believe he is worth a mid-round pick. Keep in mind, not everybody will be looking at all aspects of what justifies a good fantasy player.

They will just see the stat line he had during his last season in Cuba (.333 AVG, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 89 R and 11 SB in just 90 games played).

The deceptive part of that stat line is simple: He did not play in the MLB. The level of competition in Cuba is nowhere near what he will soon face. We have seen this countless times with professional Japanese players who have disappointed fantasy managers.

Of course, if you find yourself in the late rounds of your league’s draft and Cespedes is available, take the chance if you must. Just don’t fall victim to the hype and draft Yoenis Cespedes until at least 200 players have been drafted. Every pick you make could prove to be an Achilles’ heel for your team, leaving you relying on the scarce waiver wire.

Food for thought: Matthew Berry—of ESPN—ranks Cespedes as No. 249 overall. In a 12 team league, he values Cespedes as a 20th round pick. Spot on if you ask me.

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