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Analyzing Addison Russell’s Impact on the Chicago Cubs’ Future

The Chicago Cubs landed a top prospect in shortstop Addison Russell in a trade with the Oakland Athletics, one that is bound to have ripple effects throughout the team’s farm system while simultaneously setting up the big league club for future success.

The Cubs sent starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A’s for Russell, outfield prospect Billy McKinney and right-handed pitcher Dan Straily.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported the deal: 

The Cubs have to be bullish on Russell’s chances of blossoming into a future star to give up both Samardzija and Hammel, both of whom feature sub-3.00 ERAs and are striking out more than 8.5 batters per nine innings, despite mediocre win-loss records on the season.

Baseball Prospectus writer Jason Parks commented on just how flush the Cubs’ farm system is with Russell in the fold:

The addition of Russell is exciting for Cubs fans, but it has created a bit of a logjam at shortstop. See, the Cubs already have one of the bright young shortstop prospects in Javier Baez, not to mention the 24-year-old two-time All-Star Starlin Castro holding down the fort at this position in the majors.

MLB.com’s Teddy Cahill had Baez and Russell at No. 2 and No. 5, respectively, in his rundown of the top 10 shortstop prospects back in January. Here is Cahill’s analysis of Russell:

He has erased some Draft-day questions about his long-term future at shortstop with his play. Now scouts are convinced Russell has the tools to be an above-average defender, capable of highlight-reel plays. He is a consistent performer in the batter’s box as well, and is moving quickly toward the Major Leagues.

If Russell is truly a future defensive marvel, then it is possible they could move the powerful Baez to third base.

Then again, he would just run into Kris Bryant, one of the preeminent minor league sluggers. 

Bryant is a 22-year-old masher who’s hit 28 home runs and notched a .707 slugging percentage split between the Cubs’ Double-A and Triple-A minor league teams in 2014. Prior to Russell’s arrival, the argument for the Cubs’ best prospect centered around Bryant and Baez.

I like both of them, but I think Baez’s upside is higher,” said an American League scout, via CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan. “Bryant will have more success early in his big-league career but long-term, I think Baez will put up bigger numbers if he stays healthy.”

Try to move a player in the opposite direction of third and you find 22-year-old Arismendy Alcantara, a speedy second baseman ranked as the fourth-best prospect at his position by MLB.com.

Of course, the two shortstops then generate a discussion regarding which one makes it to the majors first. Russell is a year younger than Baez, is currently playing Double-A ball and has dealt with hamstring issues.

This gives an edge to Baez, who has struggled making solid contact in Triple-A but is much closer to a late 2014 call-up or fighting for a spot on the 25-man roster next season.

Athletics assistant director of scouting Michael Holmes admitted earlier in June that Russell and some of the A’s other prospects weren’t necessarily on a quick path to the MLB.

“These are guys that aren’t quite on the so-called fast track that maybe certain college guys might have been that we’ve taken in past years,” said Holmes, via MLB.com’s Aaron Leibowitz. “But these are guys that are progressing at a very good rate through our system and have done very well.”

The Cubs clearly aren’t worried about today’s numbers or tomorrow’s record at fifth place in the NL Central, so they could be inclined to hoard these infield prospects and see which ones—if not all—reach their full potential. With two young prospects in the pipeline behind Castro, who is currently batting .290 as the everyday shortstop, the Cubs have All-Star potential in spades.

It’s possible the Cubs flip one of Russell, Baez or Castro in order to shore up other areas of the team. General manager Theo Epstein has done a fine job of restocking the farm system, but the team could go for more starting pitching at the big league or minor league level to deal with the repercussions of giving up Hammel and Samardzija.

After all, once these burgeoning minor league prospects start racking up hits at Wrigley Field, the team is going to want to give them the opportunity to win while they carve up major league pitching.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers Should Be Concerned About Yasiel Puig

The Los Angeles Dodgers have big plans for Yasiel Puig in 2014, but some of the headlines he has been making may be cause for concern for his role with the team.

The typical criticisms of his off-field behavior and “non-traditional” playing style are generally unwarranted and not of any real concern.

The Dodgers’ real issues with Puig should lie in his physical readiness to take on a leadoff and leadership role with the team.

According to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly wants Puig in the leadoff role, as opposed to Carl Crawford, for his dynamic skill set and better righty-lefty balance at the top of the lineup.

The Dodgers have strong left-handed batters in Crawford, Adrian Gonzales and Andre Ethier, part of what makes their lineup such a potent one.

In this video, courtesy of MLB.com, Mattingly further explains that Puig hasn’t proven to be a capable RBI guy quite yet, but could benefit from the extra at-bats the leadoff spot would afford him.

When Puig showed up to camp 26 pounds heavier than last season, Mattingly told Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, “We don’t feel it’s going to be a problem, but we’re paying attention to it, put it that way.”

The platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter is someone who is a difficult out, and can move well along the basepaths. By these metrics, Puig is definitely the Dodgers’ best option as a leadoff hitter, especially when compared to the other options the Dodgers have on the team.

Crawford is the best option other than Puig, but his career OBP of .332 leaves much to be desired. The lightning quick Gordon and veteran utilityman Chone Figgins fit the mold, but neither player seems capable of hitting at a major league level right now.

Matt Kemp, when healthy, is definitely athletic enough but his proven RBI ability would make him a waste at the top of the batting order.

There is also the mysterious second baseman Alex Guerrero, but the newest Cuban addition to the roster is transitioning directly to the majors from a foreign league, a tough task for any player.

Puig’s weight could be an issue when it comes to running the basepaths, certainly part of his dynamic skill set, as he was able to make up for some questionable decisions to steal with his remarkable speed. 

However, he was still caught stealing eight times last season, which goes against the mantra of creating outs at the top of the lineup.

The other concern about Puig, which is compounded by the fluctuation in his weight, will be his ability to stay on the field.

Puig has suffered from some shoulder soreness as well as back inflammation so far this spring. Outside of Hanley Ramirez, Puig is the player the Dodgers can least afford to succumb to nagging injuries. Neither Crawford nor Kemp are safe bets to stay healthy for an entire year, and a hobbled outfield would certainly hurt the Dodgers in a meaningful way 

Mattingly, taking things in stride as usual, seemed almost resigned by the prospect of Puig’s nagging injuries, via Kevin Baxter of the Los Angles Times: 

“I try never to figure out Yasiel,” said Mattingly, who added that Puig seemed to be having trouble swinging the bat Wednesday. “I just go with what the trainer tells me. We move forward.”

Puig is hitting just .231 so far in the Cactus League, not a good sign for a potential leadoff hitter. But the Wild Horse himself isn’t worried that the numbers don’t measure up to the phenomenal ones he put up last season. Via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

“I’m having good at-bats. Pitchers are just making good pitches,” Puig said. “I know people want me to be getting more hits and I want to get more hits to help my team. But I’m working hard to get prepared for the season.”

The Dodgers staff will hope that the batting average picks up and isn’t due to his weight or back pain issues.

Despite the worries, Puig has continued to display some excellent progress in certain areas of his game. He recently made a great throw to help nab fellow phenom Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, who was angling for an inside the park home run.

Some could argue that Puig would have made that catch last season, but the misjudgment is probably due more to his unfamiliarity with centerfield—just six starts last season there—than with any diminished athleticism.

Not to mention, Puig did a great job of firing a throw to his cutoff man, Ramirez, a baseball fundamental he became notorious for missing last season.

There is always time to prove the doubters wrong, and Yasiel Puig has the freakish potential to obliterate any argument against him.

The Dodgers will be monitoring him closely, as their plans to make it to the top of the league start with Puig being effective at the top of the order.

 

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