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5
Jul/10

Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard Returns From Disabled List: Fantasy Impact

by under MLB

EDIT: Erik Bedard will miss Tuesday’s start with a stiff shoulder.

Seattle Mariners’ pitcher Erik Bedard is scheduled to make his first start of the season against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday.

The 31-year-old southpaw had surgery to repair a torn labrum last August, and hasn’t pitched since.

In three rehab starts (11 innings) between Rookie League and Triple—A this season, Bedard boasts a 1.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 14/3 K/BB ratio.

He’s worth an add in all leagues, although managers should be leery of his long—term value.

Since posting a 3.16 ERA with a 10.93 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 182 innings in 2007, Bedard has combined to pitch just 164 innings in the last two seasons. In fact, he’s failed to reach the 200-inning mark in any one of his six seasons at the big league level.

Not only is Bedard extremely fragile, but he’s been wildly inconsistent as well. Here are his strikeout and walk rates since 2006:

  • 2006: 7.84 K/9, 3.16 BB/9
  • 2007: 10.93 K/9, 2.82 BB/9
  • 2008: 8.00 K/9, 4.11 BB/9
  • 2009: 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9

Now his opponent’s batting average and WHIP totals since 2006:

  • 2006: .261 BAA, 1.35 WHIP
  • 2007: .216 BAA, 1.09 WHIP
  • 2008: .235 BAA, 1.32 WHIP
  • 2009: .217 BAA, 1.19 WHIP

While he was very good (2.82 ERA, 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9) when he last pitched in ‘09, Bedard shouldn’t be counted on as a reliable fantasy pitcher.

Given a few favorable matchups, however, Bedard could provide above—average strikeout totals this season. With the stellar Seattle defense behind him, a respectable ERA could follow as well.

Still, his long—term value is bleak. If he pitches well through July, keeper/dynasty league owners should look to maximize his value before a killer WHIP or another DL stint destroys it.

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4
Jul/10

Brandon Phillips: Why You Must Sell High on the Cincinnati Reds’ Second Baseman

by under MLB

Through 82 team games (324 at-bats) this season, Reds’ second baseman Brandon Phillips is tied with Boston’s Kevin Youkilis for the major league lead in runs, with 62.

Phillips also has 10 homers and 10 steals at the mid-way point, putting him on pace for his fourth consecutive 20/20 season.

Perhaps the most surprising stat, however, is Phillips’ batting average. In 4.5 seasons with the Reds, Phillips has never finished with a batting average higher than .288, and his career mark is an uninspiring .269.

Yet somehow, the recently-turned 29 year old is batting .309 this season and appears to be gaining steam as the season progresses:

  • April: .236
  • May: .316
  • June: .373

One explanation for Phillips’ success is Dusty Baker’s decision to move him up in the lineup, opposed to batting him in the cleanup spot where he’s hit in recent seasons.

In 206 at-bats hitting first or second this season, Phillips sports a .330 batting average with 45 runs and six homers, but just 14 RBIs.

This explains the spike in Phillips’ run-scoring total, but doesn’t necessarily provide a reasonable explanation for a batting clip that’s 40 points above his career average.

Phillips’ .335 BABIP, however, could.

His current line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, don’t suggest a change in Phillips’ swing, as they are in line with his career marks.

Phillips is striking out at a 13.9 percent clip, which is a bit lower than his career mark (16.3 percent), but higher than his total from last year (12.8 percent). 

Phillips’ tendency to hack at pitches off the plate hasn’t changed, as his o-swing rate (30.6 percent) is nearly identical to his career mark of 30.7 percent (2010 MLB average: 28.5 percent).

His contact rate (81.6 percent) is up slightly from recent years, which may suggest Phillips has shortened his swing. This, however, still isn’t enough to explain his unusually high average.

Based on these facts, there doesn’t appear to be a drastic change in Phillips’ approach at the plate. Therefore, we can only assume that his elevated batting average is a result of two things: His new spot in the Reds’ batting order, and pure dumb luck. 

In baseball terms, he’s simply hittin’ ‘em where they ain’t. Unfortunately for Phillips’ fantasy owners, pure dumb luck isn’t as reliable as actual talent.

Not only are the law of averages working against Phillips, but his history is too.

In 1,934 career at-bats before the All-Star Break, Phillips owns a .275 batting average. Following the Mid Summer Classic, however, that mark drops to .261.

Not surprisingly, May and June are generally his best months, while he tends to struggle in July (.258) and September (.241).

Because of recent injuries to Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia, the second base position is somewhat thin. However, if you have the opportunity to pair Phillips with someone else for Robinson Cano, or acquire Martin Prado and another piece for Phillips, it’s worth a shot.

Phillips turns 30 next year, and both his power and speed numbers are declining.

HR/FB rates:

  • 2007: 15.9%
  • 2008: 13.2%
  • 2009: 11.6%
  • 2010: 10.3%

Stolen base efficiency:

  • 2007: 32-of-40 (80%)
  • 2008: 23-of-33 (69%)
  • 2009: 25-of-34 (73%)
  • 2010: 10-of-18 (55%)

Simply put, Phillips’ value will never be higher. He’s a great sell high option.

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1
Jul/10

San Francisco Giants Trade Bengie Molina to Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

by under MLB

While the MLB trade deadline is more than four weeks away, the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers swapped catcher Bengie Molina for reliever Chris Ray and a player to be named later on Thursday.

Although this deal may appear insignificant on the surface, it’s important to understand how this trade affects not only the fantasy values of the players involved, but others as well.

Molina’s move from San Francisco to Texas obviously boosts his value—not only because he’s now batting in a much more potent lineup, but because of the home ballpark factor as well.

While the eldest Molina brother has struggled this season (.257 batting average, three HRs, 17 RBI in 202 at-bats), his three-year averages (.278 batting average, 18 HRs, 85 RBI) suggest there may be something left in the soon-to-be 36-year-old’s tank.

Despite his .257 batting average, Molina boasts a ridiculous 89.1 percent contact rate (MLB average is 81.0 percent).

In Texas, Molina figures to play five days a week and bat eighth between Justin Smoak and Julio Borbon.

If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, consider this: In 2,579 career at-bats before the All-Star Break, Molina has hit a HR every 37.3 at-bats. Following the Midsummer Classic, however, he goes yard once every 28.2 at-bats.

He’s a decent deep league option, and is worth an add if you’re struggling to find a viable replacement for Victor Martinez.

With Molina out of the lineup in San Francisco, Buster Posey figures to settle in as the Giants everyday catcher. In 27 games this year, the 23-year-old former first-round pick has started just two games at catcher this season.

Although he hit well in his first two weeks as a major leaguer (.429 batting average), Posey has struggled since, posting a .146 average in his last 14 games. Still, he’s batting .289 with one HR and 10 RBI through 97 at-bats overall.

Posey projects as a Joe Mauer-type player with great strike zone awareness and the ability to hit for a high average. His power upside, however, is likely no more than 15-20 bombs a year.

With Posey moving from first base to catcher, Pablo Sandoval figures to move across the diamond and play first base. This likely opens up a spot at third base for the hot-hitting Juan Uribe , while Edgar Renteria and Freddy Sanchez will play every day at shortstop and second base, respectively.

In exchange for Molina, the Rangers will send reliever Chris Ray to San Francisco. Once thought to be Baltimore’s closer of the future, Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007 and hasn’t been the same since.

After saving 33 games in 2006 and posting a 9.28 K/9 before his surgery in 2007, the now 28-year-old owns matching strikeout and walk rates of 4.55 in 31 2/3 innings this season.

Ray’s average fastball velocity is back up into the mid-90s, but his heater/slider combo hasn’t been as effective as it once was. His 3.41 ERA has been aided by a .214 BABIP, and his 5.88 xFIP suggests cloudy skies ahead.

While AT&T Park  may help Ray’s cause, he’s going to have a hard time finding meaningful innings in a Giants bullpen which has been pretty good this year. Ray should only be owned in deep keeper/dynasty leagues that count holds.

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1
Jul/10

Will the Real Casey McGehee Please Stand Up?

by under MLB

Casey McGehee delivered a breakout performance for the Milwaukee Brewers last season batting .301 with 16 homers and 66 RBI in just 355 at-bats.

McGehee then silenced his doubters by batting .300 with nine home runs and 41 RBI through the first two months of 2010.

His bat has since cooled, however, forcing fantasy managers to question McGehee’s true worth.

To completely understand McGehee’s value, let’s examine his relatively unknown past.

Drafted in 2003 as a 10th round pick, McGehee played first base, second base, third base and shortstop during his six-year minor league career. He also caught a total of 93 games at three different levels.

McGehee displayed doubles power in the minors and enjoyed his best season at Triple-A in 2008 with the Iowa Cubs (a team who’s home games I attended regularly as a scorekeeper for Baseball Info Solutions).

McGehee’s bat was a big reason for the I-Cubs success that season, as he hit .296 with 12 homers and 92 RBI in 550 plate appearances. Still, his future as a big league hitter appeared non-existent.

A September call up ensued, but the Cubs were forced to let him go at season’s end. The Brewers gave him a look during spring training the following year and he didn’t disappoint as he made the team as an infield reserve.

The former Fresno State Bulldog found himself in a platoon at second base with Craig Counsell by June and earned regular playing time at third base soon after.

639 at-bats later, the now 27-year-old McGehee has 28 career homers and 116 RBI in 189 games with the Brewers.

Because of his recent struggles (.209 average, three homers, nine RBI in June), fantasy managers are beginning to question his true value.

After some quick number crunching, it has become obvious to me that now is a great time to buy-low on Casey McGehee. Here’s why:

McGehee’s 2009 rookie campaign was viewed by some as a fluke and for good reason. In six minor league seasons, he hit .279 and never topped 12 homers in a single year.

Comparing his 2009 totals to his numbers through three months in 2010 suggests his success this year has been legit.

  PA R HR RBI AVG
2009 394 58 16 66 .301
2010 316 34 12 50 .271

 

The biggest difference from last season is his drop in batting average, which can be explained by his 14.7 percent line drive rate (21.6 percent last year).

His 2009 BABIP (.330) has dropped to .288 this season, but should begin to rise as he breaks free from his recent slump. This will boost McGehee’s batting average as well, though he’s likely more of a .280 hitter.

McGehee’s walk and strikeout rates are both respectable and in line with his 2009 totals, as are his HR/FB and above-average contact rates.

At his current pace (over a conservative total of 550 at-bats), McGehee is on his way to a 66 run, 23 HR, and 97 RBI reason. Still eligible at second base, those numbers are extremely valuable considering top two-baggers Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia recently hit the DL.

Looking forward to 2011, McGehee is a definite top 10 option at a dwindling third base position. In fact, you could argue he’ll be ranked as high as sixth among players at the hot corner.

Planning a trip to see Casey McGehee and the rest of the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park? Check out StadiumJourney.com for insider info on local transportation, nearby restaurants, and an in-depth review of Miller Park.

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30
Jun/10

Why Marlins’ Josh Johnson Is Better Than Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez

by under MLB

Ubaldo Jimenez has been absolutely filthy through 16 starts this season, going 14-1 with a Bob Gibson-like 1.83 ERA. The 26-year-old flame thrower even tossed a no-hitter back on April 17 .

Likewise, Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson boasts a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 16 starts, but hasn’t gotten the luck or the run support that Jimenez has.

While Colorado’s ace has struggled in his last two starts, Johnson has continued to dominate.

After a closer look, it’s become obvious that Johnson has outdueled the N.L. Cy Young favorite through the first three months in nearly every major pitching category:

  K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA FIP xFIP
JIMENEZ 8.12 3.19 1.05 1.83 3.07 3.68
JOHNSON 8.92 2.25 0.96 1.83 2.47 3.16

 

Side notes:

FIP (fielder independent pitching) is a stat that measures factors only the pitcher can control. This helps us understand how well a pitcher has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him.

xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is an experimental stat which adjusts FIP and “normalizes” home run totals. Because research has indicated that home runs are a result of fly balls allowed and home parks, xFIP can be used to measure a pitcher’s expected ERA based on the average number of homers allowed per fly ball. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s future ERA.

Using these stats to evaluate these two pitchers, we can conclude that:

  • Johnson (2.47 FIP) has been better than Jimenez (3.07) this season.
  • Johnson (3.16 xFIP) should continue to out-pitch Jimenez (3.68 xFIP) in the future.

Even if you toss out Jimenez’s recent struggles, (which have accounted for 18 percent of his total hits allowed and 43 percent of his total earned runs allowed this season), you can still argue that Johnson has been just as good:

  K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
JIMENEZ 7.81 3.19 0.99 1.15
JOHNSON 8.92 2.25 0.96 1.83

 

Taking it one step further, Johnson has clearly outperformed Jimenez in other pitching categories such as:

  • O-Swing rate (percent of batter’s that swing at pitches off the plate)
  • Contact rate (percent of contact made on all pitches)
  • First-pitch strike rate (percent of first-pitch strikes thrown)
  • Swinging strike rate (percent of pitches which result in a swinging strike)
  O-Swing % Contact % F-Strike % SwStr%
JIMENEZ 27.0 79.2 59.9 8.7
JOHNSON 31.8 73.9 64.5 11.9
MLB AVG 28.4 81.0 58.4 8.3

 

In fact, Jimenez has been no more than an average pitcher by these standards, while Johnson ranks 17th, third, 12th, and second in these categories among qualified starters.

Now don’t get it twisted; I envy Ubaldo’s ridiculous pitching repertoire as much as the next guy. I refused to be blinded by win totals and ESPN, however, and therefore believe that Josh Johnson has been (and will continue to be) the better pitcher.

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29
Jun/10

Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Phillies’ Second Baseman Chase Utley

by under MLB

The Phillies placed Chase Utley on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained ligament in his right thumb on Tuesday, making him the fourth player in recent weeks (Aramis Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Jason Heyward being the others) to be shelved due to a thumb injury.

It’s unclear how long the Phillies (and more importantly, your fantasy squad) will be without Utley’s services. Through 72 games this season, the 31-year-old was batting .277 with 49 runs, 11 homers, 37 RBI and five steals.

In his absence, Utley owners will be forced to ponder these waiver wire fliers as short-term replacements at second base:

• Jose Lopez struggled through the first two months of the season, but appears to have found his stroke in June. Through 102 at-bats this month, the 26-year-old is batting .265 with three homers and 12 RBI for a run-hungry Mariners lineup.

Lopez is Seattle’s third baseman, but remains eligible at second after starting 139 games at the position in 2009. He will carry an 11-game hitting streak with him into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. He’s currently owned in 48 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Freddy Sanchez missed the first six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, but has posted respectable totals since, batting .300 with 18 runs and 18 RBI in 130 at-bats. The former N.L. batting champion should get plenty of run scoring opportunities batting second for the Giants. He’s currently owned in just 21 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Like Sanchez, Carlos Guillen has missed time due to injury this season. That hasn’t stopped him, however, from being a productive fantasy contributor. In 158 at-bats this year, Guillen has five homers, 21 RBI, and a .291 batting average.

Guillen’s bat has been especially hot of late, as he’s hit .305 with three homers and 12 RBI in 23 games this month. The 34-year-old hit .296 with 21 homers and 102 RBI and had 13 steals as recently as 2007, and clearly has something left in the tank.

Batting behind Magglio Ordonez , Miguel Cabrera, and Brennan Boesch in the Tigers’ lineup, Guillen will see several RBI opportunities. Surprisingly, he remains available in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Jonathan Herrera is a relatively unknown name, but the switch-hitting 25-year-old has done nothing but hit since being called up on June 1. Through 19 games this season, Herrera is batting .305 (18-for-59) and takes a 10-game hitting streak with him into Tuesday night’s game against the Padres.

The undrafted shortstop (who’s currently playing second base) has little power, as he hit just 24 homers with a .715 OPS in seven minor league seasons. However, Herrera does have some speed (131 career minor league steals), though he has yet to display it at the highest level.

His long-term outlook is bleak, but his hot streak is worth riding in deeper formats while it lasts. He’s currently owned in just one percent of Yahoo! leagues.

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29
Jun/10

Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Braves’ Outfielder Jason Heyward

by under MLB

After batting just .181 with one homer over 94 June at-bats, rookie sensation Jason Heyward’s batting average fell from .292 (on May 31) to .251 following last Saturday’s 0-for-4 game.

Heyward’s recent ineffectiveness can be blamed on a lingering thumb injury that’s been bothering him since late May. Instead of continuing to let him play through the pain, the Braves decided to place the 20-year-old on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 27.

Heyward’s injury won’t require surgery, and he’s expected to be back in the lineup after the All-Star Break.

While his long-term value is through the roof, his short-term value can easily be replaced with one of the following waiver wire fliers :

• David DeJesus doesn’t wow you in the power/speed categories, but he’s batting .332 with 39 runs, five home runs, 35 RBI and three steals through 289 at-bats this season.

He’s been especially hot of late, batting .416 (40-for-96) with 12 runs, a home run and 16 RBI in 25 June games for the lowly Royals.

DeJesus’s three-year average (82 runs, 11 HR, 67 RBI, eight steals, .281 average) are nothing spectacular, but he’s a solid injury replacement. In fact, the 30-year-old’s fantasy value could be on the rise, as he’s rumored to be the centerpiece of recent trade talks with the Red Sox and Giants.

DeJesus is currently available in 55 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Despite his lingering reputation as a free-swinging bust, Jeff Francoeur is putting together a respectable season with the Mets. Through 75 games, the former first-rounder is batting .267 with 33 runs, eight home runs, 40 RBI and seven steals. Even more, he’s striking out just 17.3 percent of the time (MLB average: 20.5 percent).

The revived 26-year-old is hitting .316 with three home runs and 13 RBI this month, and appears capable of approaching his first 20/20 campaign. Given his spot in the Mets’ lineup, the former Braves prospect should continue to see his fair share of RBI opportunities.

Francouer’s average probably won’t sniff .300, but he should offer respectable power numbers while Heyward rides your disabled list. He’s currently owned in just 28 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Will Venable showed flashes of brilliance last August , whacking six homers with 17 RBI, three steals and posting a .313 average in 28 games, earning him a spot on the 2010 All-Breakout Team .

He’s not a high average hitter, but the 27-year-old right fielder offers a valuable power/speed combo. Through 68 games this season, Venable has hit eight homer runs and stolen 14 bases.

His most recent production, however, makes him worthy of an add, as Venable is batting .346 (9-for-26) with four home runs and 12 RBI in his last eight games.

The Padres have a favorable schedule between now and the All-Star break, and the left-handed hitting Venable should continue to produce respectable totals. If you’re in one of the 92 percent of Yahoo! leagues in which he’s available, scoop him up and start him until Heyward returns.

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29
Jun/10

Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Boston Red Sox Catcher Victor Martinez

by under MLB

Victor Martinez was hit with two foul tipped balls on Sunday, the first off Pablo Sandoval’s bat in the second inning, then off the bat of Andres Torres in the third, which broke a bone in the tip of V-Mart’s left thumb.

The Red Sox initially hoped Martinez could avoid a DL stint, but after re-evaluating the injury on Monday, they decided to shelf the three-time All-Star until after the All-Star Break.

During a season in which catchers have been widely ineffective (only three rank in Yahoo’s top 200), Victor Martinez has been one of the few standouts, batting .289 with nine homers and 38 RBI.

In fact, V-Mart has been one of the top producers at the catcher position since his first full season six years ago. Since 2004, Martinez is the only catcher to drive in 100 runs in a season, and he’s done it three times.

While Martinez’s bat is irreplaceable, there are a few waiver wire fliers worth exploring. Assuming your fellow managers have already scooped up Buster Posey and Carlos Santana, here are three backstops worthy of an add in V-Mart’s stead:

• Marlins catcher Ronny Paulino has thrived in John Baker’s absence, batting .309 with three homers and 28 RBI in 194 at-bats this season. The 29-year-old backstop has also recorded a hit in 18 of 23 games this month.

Though his BABIP is an unrealistic .350, there’s no reason to believe he can’t maintain his career .281 batting average for the rest of the season. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder makes above-average contact  and tends to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone.

Unlike most catchers, Paulino’s double-digit HR potential won’t come with a sub-.250 batting average. Surprisingly, the Marlins’ backstop is still available in 84 percent of Yahoo! leagues. He should be your first option to replace the injured Martinez.

• Like everyone else in Toronto this season, John Buck has been hitting homers at a ridiculous rate. In six seasons prior to 2010, Buck’s career high was 18, a mark he set in 2007 with the Royals.

Through just 217 at-bats this year, however, the 29-year-old backstop has 13 long balls and 40 runs driven in. Perhaps even more surprising is his .270 batting average, considering his career mark of .239.

Buck’s contact rate is extremely low and his plate discipline has been even worse. While it’s hard to argue with his recent production (.295 BA, five HR, 14 RBI in June), there’s reason to believe his numbers will drop off in the near future. He’s owned in just under half of Yahoo! leagues.

• Tigers backstop Alex Avila is available in 99 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and is a solid catching option in Martinez’s absence. The 23-year-old left-handed batter has gotten the majority of the starts behind the plate in recent weeks, making the most of his opportunity.

In 45 at-bats (16 games) this month, Avila is batting .333 (15-for-45) with a homer and nine RBI, including four multi-hit games and a five-game RBI streak.

Though this sample size is obviously limited, there are many signs (10.4 walk rate, 20.0 line drive rate, 80.2 contact rate) which point to future success. For now, he’s a safe add in deep leagues.

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28
Jun/10

Why a Low BABIP Doesn’t Necessarily Signal a Good Buy-Low Candidate

by under MLB

The term “Batting Average on Balls In Play” (BABIP) has become one of the most popular stats among fantasy managers in recent years. 

To put it simply, BABIP measures the number of batted balls that fall safely for a hit (excluding home runs).

According to The Hardball Times Glossary, the exact formula for BABIP is: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).

The major league average for BABIP is usually around .300. Last year it was .299. Through nearly three months this season, it’s .298.

Generally, if a player’s BABIP is well-below the major league average, we can conclude he has experienced some amount of bad luck. Sometimes the player is making good contact, but his batted balls simply aren’t finding holes in the defense. However, that’s not always the case.

Here are the 10 lowest BABIPs (among qualified batters) through games played on Sunday, June 27:

PLAYER BABIP AVG
Aaron Hill .183 .192
Jose Bautista .220 .230
Carlos Pena .221 .201
Carlos Quentin .225 .229
Pedro Feliz .227 .216
Carlos Lee .231 .234
Mark Teixeira .241 .229
Adam Lind .241 .203
Gordon Beckham .245 .204
A.J. Pierzynski .248 .242

 

Aaron Hill might be viewed as a buy-low candidate because of his major league low .183 BABIP (career .296), but the more revealing stats are his drastically high fly ball rate (52.0 percent) and MLB-low line drive rate of 8.4 percent. His BABIP is a direct result of these unlikely numbers.

So what can we take from this? It’s simple to understand, really.

Hill is hitting more fly balls in an effort to match his lofty home run total from last season. Because his HR/FB rate is just 10.5 percent, it’s fair to assume most of the remaining 89.5 percent of his fly balls are being caught for outs.

If Hill can level out his swing and raise his line drive rate closer to his career mark of 19.1 percent, his average will begin to rise as well.

Jose Bautista is tied for the major league lead with 20 homers, but his BABIP is a paltry .220. Is anyone buying low on the 29-year-old because of this? Absolutely not.

Bautista’s problem is the same as teammate Aaron Hill; his fly ball percentage is 55.3, the second highest total in baseball.

Because the formula for BABIP excludes home runs, a player who has high fly ball rates and home run totals is unlikely to post a respectable batting average.

Carlos Pena’s fly ball rate is actually down from recent years, but so too is his line drive rate (12.1 percent this year, 18.0 percent career). When Pena hit .282 in 2007, his line drive rate (18.0 percent) aided his BABIP (.297) and was the guiding factor.

Other players on the list such as Carlos Lee, Mark Teixeira, and Adam Lind all have line drive rates over 17.0 percent. Therefore, they are more likely to post higher averages in the near future (and thus, are better buy-low candidates) than the players mentioned above.

When evaluating a hitter, it’s important to look beyond BABIP. If his low BABIP is accompanied by a high LD rate—such as the case with Justin Smoak (.255 BABIP, 23.5 LD rate)—he’s a prime buy-low option.

The combination of a low BABIP and low LD rate—such as the case with the aforementioned Hill and Bautista—is one you probably want to avoid.

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22
Jun/10

Buy or Sell: Don’t Let Scott Kazmir’s Sparkling June Fool You

by under MLB

While Angels’ southpaw Scott Kazmir struggled with a 7.20 and 5.97 ERA in April and May respectively, the 26-year-old has seemingly salvaged his season with a deceiving June.

In 23 innings (four starts) this month, Kazmir is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA. What most fail to see is his 1.35 WHIP and 13/15 K/BB ratio, both of which raise red flags.

Fantasy managers have been gushing over Kazmir’s stuff since he was seemingly stolen from the Mets in the 2004 Victor Zambrano trade . The then Tampa Bay pitcher made his major league debut later that season and has disappointed ever since.

In 943 career innings, the 2002 first-round pick owns a walk rate of 4.09. After showing signs of improvement in recent years, Kazmir has left fantasy managers disgruntled once again, posting a 4.58 BB/9 in 72 2/3 innings this season.

Further, Kazmir’s career WHIP is a whopping 1.39, a number that will continue to hamper the Texas native. His Kyle Davis-like WHIP of 1.51 this season makes him useless in most leagues.

Kazmir’s high strikeout totals, which used to be a strength, have now become a weakness. After topping out with a 10.41 K/9 in 2007, Kazmir’s strikeout rate has dropped to 9.81 and 7.15 in recent years, before plummeting to a below league average 6.07 in 2010.

As if that’s not enough to scare fantasy managers away, Kazmir’s xFIP (5.37) and declining average fastball velocity suggest his fantasy value should be no greater than Felipe Paulino’s .

With five-plus major league seasons under his belt, (only two of which he’s topped 160 innings) it’s safe to say Scott Kazmir is one of the most overrated players in fantasy baseball. If you’ve been the unfortunate owner of the former pitching prodigy, deal him away for the freshest mound of cow pies you can find. They won’t win you any games, but at least this pile of dung won’t send your ERA and WHIP through the roof.

 

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