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22
Jun/10

Closer’s Corner, June 21: Brian Fuentes, Huston Street, Alfredo Simon and More

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If you read this article posted back in March, you know why it’s important to keep an eye on your league’s waiver wire as save opportunities get shuffled around major league bullpens.

• Just last week, Diamondbacks closer Chad Qualls (who saved 24 games in 2009) was relieved of his duties after converting just 12 of his 16 save opportunities with an 8.46 ERA in 22 1/3 innings thus far.

Teammate Aaron Heilman earned the four-out save Saturday night against Detroit, but not before allowing two hits and a run to score. The 31-year-old, who has 11 saves in his eight-year career, has allowed a run in three of his last five appearances.

While Heilman is now the favorite to close games in the desert, he’ll be on a short leash. All closers have value, but this one comes with an elevated risk.

• Angels’ closer Brian Fuentes allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in a non-save situation Saturday against the Cubs. Through 17 1/3 innings this season, Fuentes has allowed five homers and owns an embarrassing 6.23 ERA.

Despite this, Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia issued a vote of confidence to the struggling closer. From the Orange County Register :

“I don’t think you’re going to look at a reliever’s ERA and grade him out on how he’s doing – especially in a short relief role like Brian’s,” Scioscia said. “A couple bad outings and it’s going to take a long time to get that ERA back where it needs to be.”

Fernando Rodney is the guy to own should Scioscia change his mind, as he converted all five of his save opportunities in place of the injured Fuentes earlier this season. Rodney’s peripherals , however, suggest he’s been the receiver of some good luck.

Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on this situation, but Fuentes remains the best long-term option for saves.

• As of Friday night, Manuel Corpas owned a sparkling 2.37 ERA and had converted nine of 11 save opportunities for Colorado this season. After allowing eight runs in two appearances this weekend against Milwaukee, however, his ERA has ballooned to 4.19. Despite this, Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy said he wouldn’t rush Huston Street back into the closer’s role upon his expected return from the DL on Tuesday.

Still, it’s expected that Corpas will relinquish the ninth-inning duties after Street turns in a few good outings. Street, who turns 27 in August, has recorded 129 saves and a 2.91 ERA since his major league debut in 2005, and is the guy to own looking forward.

• Orioles’ reliever David Hernandez converted on his first two save opportunities in Alfredo Simon ’s absence, but failed to record his third after allowing two runs on four hits and a walk with a 2-1 lead Friday night against the Padres.

Simon (who is 7-for-8 in save opportunities this year) closed Saturday night and appears to be the favorite in Baltimore from here on out. While Simon (just like Heilman ) has value, he comes with a great deal of risk.

First of all, he pitches for baseball’s worst team and therefore won’t be provided with many save opportunities. Second, his 13/9 K/BB ratio in 15 innings thus far suggests his 3.60 ERA isn’t exactly legit. While Simon does feature a mid-90’s fastball/mid-80’s splitter combo which has produced a ground ball rate of 61.7 percent, he doesn’t have the typical swing-and-miss stuff you’d expect from a closer. The 29-year-old is the guy to own, but his long-term value is quite cloudy.

Here’s the updated Closer’s Corner as of Monday. The second column lists the current closer, while the third column features a backup option worth owning.

TEAM CLOSER NEXT  
Baltimore N. Feliz D. Hernandez
Boston J. Papelbon D. Bard
New York (AL) M. Rivera  
Tampa Bay R. Soriano  
Toronto K. Gregg  
Chicago (AL) B. Jenks J.Putz/M. Thornton
Cleveland K. Wood C. Perez
Detroit J. Valverde  
Kansas City J. Soria  
Minnesota J. Rauch  
Los Angeles B. Fuentes F. Rodney
Oakland A. Bailey  
Seattle D. Aardsma B. League
Texas N. Feliz  
Atlanta B. Wagner  
Florida L. Nunez  
New York (NL ) F. Rodriguez  
Philadelphia B. Lidge J. Contreras
Washington M. Capps  
Chicago (NL ) C. Marmol  
Cincinnati F. Cordero  
Houston M. Lindstrom B. Lyon
Milwaukee J. Axford T. Hoffman
Pittsburgh O. Dotel E. Meek
St. Louis R. Franklin  
Arizona A. Heilman C. Qualls
Colorado M. Corpas H. Street
Dodgers J. Broxton  
Padres H. Bell  
Giants B. Wilson  

 

Be sure to check back next Monday for another Closer’s Corner update!

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9
Jun/10

Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg Already a Top-10 Fantasy Pitcher

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Stephen Strasburg dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates in front of a sold out crowd at Nationals Park Tuesday night, allowing just two runs on four hits in seven historical innings.

The 21-year-old phenom fanned 14 batters and walked none, becoming the first pitcher ever to strike out 11 or more with zero walks in his major-league debut.

Strasburg was efficient with his pitches, needing just 94 offerings to complete seven frames. He struck out the final seven batters he faced, retiring the side on strikes in the sixth and seventh innings with 11 and 13 pitches respectively.

The 2009 No. 1 overall pick struck out each Pittsburgh starter, six of them going down on strikes at least twice.

Strasburg worked off his plus-plus upper 90s fastball, which was clocked at 98 mph or higher 36 times. His secondary offering—an unhittable plus-plus curveball—generated knee-buckling reactions from the helpless batters. He even flashed an occasional plus changeup, delivered at 88-90 mph.

His control was impeccable, as only three of the 24 batters he faced worked a three-ball count.

For video highlights of Strasburg’s debut, click here

Normally, 21-year-old pitchers cause fantasy managers fits, but Strasburg is no ordinary pitcher. Based on his pure stuff, polish and maturity, the San Diego native is arguably a top-10 fantasy pitcher after just one major-league start.

A quick peek at the schedule only supports this claim. Assuming the Nationals keep Strasburg on a normal five-day rotation, the 6-foot-4, 220 pounder will face the Indians, White Sox, Orioles, Braves, Padres and Giants (the 26th, 25th, 28th, 6th, 22nd and 24th ranked teams in run-scored) before the All-Star Break.

While it will be nearly impossible to find anyone unwilling to buy into Strasburg’s hype after his record-breaking major-league debut, his value is only going to go up. If a fellow league member snatched him up before you could, send out an offer to gauge his price.

Call me crazy, but I’d take Strasburg over David Price , Jered Weaver and Matt Cain . Adjust your rankings accordingly.

FBI Forecast: 110 IP, 10 wins, 100 strikeouts (8.18 K/9), 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

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8
Jun/10

What’s Wrong With Aramis Ramirez?

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While waiver wire gems such as Jose Bautista (18 HRs, 45 RBI) and Carlos Silva (8 wins, 2.93 ERA) are unexpectedly dominating fantasy leagues, perennial All-Stars such as Mark Teixeira (.211 BA) and Dan Haren (4.83 ERA) are struggling mightily.

The most perplexing case, however, is that of Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez . In 178 at-bats this season, the soon-to-be 32-year-old sports an embarrassing .168/.232/.285 triple-slash that even Mario Mendoza wouldn’t claim.

Normally one of the top sluggers at his position, (32 HRs, 105 RBI, .302 BA per season from ‘04 to ‘08) Ramirez has just 11 extra-base hits and 22 RBI through nine weeks of play this season. Some of this can be attributed to a BABIP (.189) that ranks second to last among batters with at least 180 plate appearances.

Another likely reason for Ramirez’s ineffectiveness is the sore left thumb that’s been bothering him for the last few weeks. The former Pirates farm hand has been in and out of the lineup recently while nursing the injury, which has disrupted his timing and rhythm at the plate.

While Ramirez is taking walks at an 8.1 percent clip, (7.3 percent career) his alarmingly high strikeout rate of 25.1 percent this season has overshadowed a respectable career mark of 15.5 percent.

Ramirez’s plate discipline stats, however, just cause more confusion. In 2009, Ramirez hacked at 31.5 percent of pitches off the plate. This season, that number has actually dropped to 29.9 percent.

Ramirez’s swinging strike rate is up slightly, from 9.0 and 9.4 percent in recent years to 10.4 percent in 2010, while his contact rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction as well, falling to 78.6 percent this season after topping 80 percent in each season since 2004.

The most eye-popping stat, however, lies within his batted ball totals. Ramirez has always been a fly-ball hitter, (45.1 percent career) but his 59.9 percent mark this season is the second highest among batters with at least 180 plate appearances. Further, his HR/FB rate is a shockingly low 6.1 percent this season (13.4 career).

Not coincidentally, Ramirez’s line drive rate is down to 15.3 percent this season, compared to 20.4 and 21.3 in ‘08 and ‘09 respectively.

Ramirez’s sore thumb is obviously effecting his ability to generate power, but it doesn’t explain his ineptitude before the injury occurred.

His three hits (one a HR) and two RBI Saturday night against Houston gave fantasy managers hope, but he followed it up with an 0-for-3 performance on Sunday before sitting out Monday’s contest at Pittsburgh.

If there’s any reason for optimism, it’s due to the fact that Ramirez tends to warm up as the summer months progress. A career .275 hitter with a HR/AB rate of 22.7 prior to the All-Star Break, Ramirez bats .290 in the second half, going deep once every 17.8 at-bats.

Of course, none of this matters if Ramirez doesn’t get healthy. A short DL stint to clear his mind and heal his thumb may be necessary.

While there’s no guarantee Ramirez will become productive anytime soon, his value is at an all-time low. If you can afford to carry the dead weight for a few weeks, make a move and wait it out. Sooner or later, his .189 average on balls in play will rise, and with it will come premium power at a surprisingly scarce position.

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8
Jun/10

2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?

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Photo credit: Gallery 2 Images

The first round of Major League Baseball’s 2010 first-year player draft featured many unexpected surprises, including the position at which Bryce Harper was drafted.

As expected, the Washington Nationals made the 17-year-old Junior College standout the No. 1 overall pick Monday night. Unexpectedly, they selected the switch hitter as an outfielder instead of a catcher, the position at which Harper has played the most.

Ultimately, the Nationals decided Harper’s 80 raw power , excellent bat speed and strong arm would play best in right field. Keeping him at catcher would be extremely risky and delay his major-league debut by at least three years. 

Though this decision potentially hurts his long-term value to fantasy teams, it opens the door for a possible big-league debut in September 2011.

While his first taste of the majors is more likely to come in 2012, the Vegas native won’t become fantasy-relevant at least until the 2013 season at the tender age of 20.

Although Harper’s astounding talent is hard to ignore, (23 homers, .417/.509/.917 triple-slash in 180 regular-season at-bats in 2010) he’s got a long journey ahead of him.

Still, keeper and dynasty league managers will fight for his rights in drafts next season, as Harper has the ability to join the likes of Ken Griffey Jr ., Andruw Jones , Miguel Cabrera and Jason Heyward as a fantasy-relevant 20-year-old with Hall-of-Fame upside.

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7
Jun/10

MLB Prospect Report: Florida Marlins OF Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value

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In addition to the hype surrounding the MLB draft on Monday night and Stephen Strasburg’s Major League debut on Tuesday night, fantasy owners now have Mike Stanton’s long-awaited arrival to look forward to.

Stanton’s absence from Double-A Jacksonville’s lineup on Sunday almost certainly confirms this, as the young outfielder is expected to join the Marlins on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

Fantasy managers have known about Stanton for a while, but his expected call-up begs the question: What will his fantasy impact be in 2010?

Before we can answer this, it’s important to understand just how good the 2007 second-round pick has been:

2008 (High-A): 468 at-bats, 89 runs, 26 doubles, three triples, 39 homers, 97 RBI, 153 strikeouts, 58 walks, .293/.381/.611.

2009 (High-A and Double-A): 479 at-bats, 76 runs, 24 doubles, five triples, 28 homers, 92 RBI, 144 strikeouts, 59 walks, .255/.341/.501.

While his power stroke dominated Minor League pitching in ‘08 and ‘09, Stanton has actually exceeded expectations in 2010:

2010 (Double-A): 190 at-bats, 41 runs, 12 doubles, two triples, 21 homers, 52 RBI, 53 strikeouts, 44 walks, .311/.441/.726.

Dave Winfield comparisons are plentiful, as all five of Stanton’s tools rate as solid-average or better. The 20-year-old has “light-tower power” and the ability to swipe 20 bases per season according to Baseball America , though he has yet to develop baserunning instincts.

BA also notes his tremendous work ethic and modest personality.

If there’s any reason to doubt Stanton, it’d be due to his high strikeout totals. Though his pitch recognition has improved, “he still gets caught guessing too much.” This will likely hamper his fantasy value for the rest of 2010.

It’s important to note, however, that the Marlins plan to give Stanton regular at-bats. This means Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, and Cody Ross are likely to split time among the remaining outfield positions.

Given Coghlan’s recent resurgence (six multi-hit games in his last seven contests), and Ross’s steady production (six HRs, 33 RBI, .300 average), Maybin (.225 average in 182 at-bats) likely stands to lose the most playing time in the near future.

Stanton is expected to bat seventh in Florida’s lineup, but could move up if his production warrants it.

Although Jason Heyward has become a top-50 player, you shouldn’t expect similar immediate success from the 20-year-old Stanton. He will undoubtedly display wicked power, but his batting average will likely limit his value.

In the long term, Stanton’s ceiling is higher than that of Ike Davis , but lower than Justin Smoak’s . Still, the Marlins outfielder has 40-HR potential, making him an exceptionally valuable commodity in all keeper/dynasty formats.

FBI Forecast: 325 at-bats, 40 runs, 13 HRs, 45 RBI, .260 batting average.

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19
May/10

Fantasy Baseball Insiders: Buy Or Sell? Pitchers Edition

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Nearly seven weeks have passed since the 2010 fantasy baseball season began, and now is the time to start making crucial decisions about your team.

With young guns such as David Price and Francisco Liriano living up to recent hype, it’s not always easy to tell which of these hurlers has enough staying power, and which one should be dealt at peak value.

Thankfully, the Insider is here to decipher these tough questions in the pitcher’s edition of Buy or Sell?

 

BUY

Ricky Romero – The sixth overall pick in the 2005 draft, Romero has become fantasy-relevant in 2010 after an average rookie campaign in 2009. Through eight starts this season, the 25-year-old southpaw has a 2.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His 9.43 K/9 is supported by two 12-strikeout games, one of them in his most recent start against the Rangers.

So what’s changed since last year?

For starters, he’s throwing his fastball less and his plus-changeup more. After coaxing swings at pitches off the plate 24 percent of the time last season, hitters have expanded their zones against Romero 31.2 percent of the time this season (MLB average is 27.4 percent).

After Romero posted a league-average contact rate of 77.9 percent last year, batters are making contact on his pitches just 72.2 percent of the time in 2010, a number topped by only three other starters thus far.

Romero’s .291 BABIP and 76.0 percent strand rate are within reasonable league averages, and his 3.12 expected FIP (xFIP) suggests sunny skies ahead. Most fantasy managers are probably skeptical of Romero’s early-season success, but the data is clear: this kid is for real.

Francisco Liriano – The 26-year-old’s 2.63 ERA through seven starts has fantasy managers asking: Has the 2006 Liriano finally returned?

Well, not quite. But he has made significant strides since his Tommy John surgery more than three years ago, and they’re finally paying off now.

Liriano’s average fastball velocity is back up, and his slider has regained its form as a plus-pitch. He’s coaxing swings at pitches off the plate at an above-average rate , and is pounding the zone with a 62.8 percent first-pitch strike rate (MLB average is 57.9 percent).

In addition to this, Liriano’s strand rate  is slightly elevated, but his .335 BABIP actually suggests he’s experienced a touch of bad luck. There remains a slight risk involved with Liriano, but his 3.22 xFIP proves his start to the 2010 season is legit.  

 

SELL
 

David Price : Call me crazy, but I’m not buying into David Price’s 1.81 ERA. Don’t get me wrong, because I love the 24-year-old phenom as much as anyone. His current BABIP (.251), strand rate (80.1 percent), and xFIP (3.98), however, all suggest a regression in the near future.

In addition to this, five of his eight starts thus far have come against the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Athletics, and Indians.

Price’s value in keeper and dynasty formats is sky-high, and deservedly so, but look at it this way: Price is currently on pace for 218 innings in 2010 (after working 162 2/3 innings last year). If he finishes the season with a more realistic, yet respectable, 3.50 ERA, his earned run average from here on out would be a Joe Blanton-like 4.08.

Barry Zito : The Giants’ southpaw returned to respectability last year, posting a 4.03 ERA in 192 innings. Through eight starts this season, however, Zito has pitched like it’s 2002, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Like Price, however, Zito’s xFIP (4.45) signals cloudy skies ahead. His .242 BABIP and slightly elevated strand rate  support this theory. In addition to this, Zito’s K/9 has been well below-average. Furthermore, his competition thus far has been quite weak, as five of Zito’s eight starts have come against N.L. teams in the bottom six in runs scored.

If there’s any good news, it’s that Zito seems to have his hammer curve ball back. His mid-80’s fastball and average changeup , however, aren’t what they used to be. Now’s the time to swap the 32-year-old for a tidy profit, and don’t look back.

Doug Fister : The Mariners towering righty has seemingly come out of nowhere this season, posting a ridiculous 1.72 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 47 innings. Fister hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start, and has lasted at least seven innings in five of his seven starts.

A quick look over his FanGraphs page , however, suggests Fister is nowhere near this good. The 26-year-old’s .232 BABIP is the fifth lowest among starters with at least 40 innings pitched, and his 82.6 strand rate is the twelfth highest  among pitchers who meet the same criteria. In addition to this, Fister’s 3.16 FIP  suggests the Seattle defense has greatly aided his performance.

Here’s the kicker: Fister’s 4.25 xFIP  is 2.53 runs higher than his ERA, a sign that he and his lowly 3.83 K/9 are due for a massive regression.

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19
May/10

Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/18: The Demise of Trevor Hoffman

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Today’s edition of Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight features not one, but two games scored by the Insider himself…

Game No. 26 – Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays

• Blue Jays’ starter Shaun Marcum continued his impressive comeback from Tommy John surgery, limiting the Twins to one run on five hits and two walks in seven strong innings Tuesday afternoon. Despite Minnesota’s best efforts, Marcum continually worked out of trouble to preserve his big lead.

Through nine starts (62 innings) this season, Marcum is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His low walk rate (2.03) compliments his fastball/changeup combo well, though his BABIP and xFIP  suggest a slight regression in the near future.

He’s not exactly a sell-high option, as Marcum is still a very good pitcher despite a small trace of luck thus far. It’s worth noting, however, that the 28-year-old has yet to face division foes New York or Tampa Bay this season.

• Marcum’s counterpart, Carl Pavano , has been equally good this season, allowing just seven walks in 46 1/3 innings (1.36 BB/9) before Tuesday’s game. For the fourth time this season, Pavano didn’t issue any free passes in a game. Instead, the Blue Jays torched him for six runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work.

Tuesday was just the second time in eight starts this season that Pavano allowed more than two runs in a game. Despite the pounding from a red-hot Toronto lineup, Pavano’s ERA and WHIP stand at 4.11 and 1.21, respectively. 

The 34-year-old’s peripherals support his solid performance thus far, but Pavano faces two tough opponents (Milwaukee and Texas) in his next two starts.

• Four Blue Jays went yard on Tuesday, though none were more encouraging than Aaron Hill ’s three-run blast in the sixth. Fantasy managers expected Hill’s power numbers to regress from last season, but they didn’t expect his average (.175 through Tuesday) to drop so far. In fairness to Hill, he has suffered from a ridiculously unlucky .184 BABIP.

Despite this, Hill continues to take walks (14.8 percent BB rate) and make good contact . Expect the 28-year-old to rebound from his rough start and finish the 2010 season with around 20 homers and a .280 average.

 

Game No. 27 – Anaheim Angels vs. Texas Rangers

• Tuesday night’s matchup between the Angels and Rangers figured to be a rare pitcher’s duel in Arlington, as Jered Weaver (2.47 ERA) opposed C.J. Wilson (1.48 ERA).

• Weaver made it through the first two innings unscathed before allowing a two-run homer to Michael Young in the bottom of the third. Vladimir Guerrero went yard off Weaver to lead off the fourth, continuing his torrid pace to start the season. Anaheim’s offensive explosion in the top half of the fourth, however, lined Weaver up for his fifth win of the season.

After retiring two of the first three batters he faced in the fifth, Weaver allowed another two-run homer (this one to Ian Kinsler ). Next came two consecutive singles off the bats of Vlad and Josh Hamilton , chasing Weaver after 111 pitches in 4 2/3 innings.

Reliever Trevor Bell then yielded a two-run double to Nelson Cruz, leaving Weaver with the following line: 4 2/3 innings, nine hits, seven runs, three walks and one strikeout; by far his worst start of the season.

Despite the pounding he took, Weaver’s stellar K/9, BB/9, BABIP and xFIP all support his strong start this season. While it appears the 27-year-old is establishing himself as a fantasy ace, it’s worth noting his history of early-season success and post-All-Star Break failures.

• C.J. Wilson has been even better Weaver thus far, posting a quality start in each of his seven outings this season. His favorable BABIP and unsustainable left on-base percentage , however, tells a different story.

Wilson’s luck finally caught up with him Tuesday night, as the converted reliever lasted just 4 1/3 innings, allowing seven runs on seven hits and a walk. Even after Tuesday night’s slug fest, Wilson’s ERA and WHIP sit at 2.55 and 1.15, respectively. He’ll get the Cubs on Sunday.

• Elvis Andrus continued his early-season tear, going 3-for-5 with three runs out of the Rangers’ leadoff spot. The 21-year-old has displayed an advanced batter’s eye (14.8 walk rate , 17.4 percent o-swing rate ) in addition to being an excellent contact hitter (86.3 contact rate ). Andrus’ inflated BABIP , however, suggests his .331 batting average is probably a fluke.

• Michael Young went 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBI Tuesday night. Now batting .298 on the season, the 33-year-old Young has 24 runs, four homers and 25 RBI. Batting in the two hole in front of Kinsler, Vlad, Hamilton and Cruz, Young should have no problem scoring 100 runs while pushing for 20 homers this season.

Other notes from around the league:

 

HITTERS

Hitter of the day: Michael Young (3-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI)

• Joey Votto continues to dominate opposing pitchers as he went 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBI against the Brewers on Tuesday. Through 39 games this season, Votto is batting .308 with 25 runs, nine homers, 27 RBI and four steals.

This equates to a 162-game pace of 104 runs, 37 homers, 112 RBI and 17 steals. Perhaps the scariest part is that Votto’s current BABIP and HR/FB rate aren’t too far off of his career totals. The 26-year-old is making a strong case for top-20 player status.

• Carlos Quentin recorded his second three-hit day in the last four games on Tuesday while scoring once and knocking in two. Quentin’s struggles thus far (.200 batting average though 33 games) can be blamed on his lowly BABIP .

Despite this, the 27-year-old remains on a 19-homer, 105-RBI 550-at-bat pace. If you can afford to bench the slumping Quentin until he regains his stroke, he is an excellent buy-low candidate.

• To Luke Scott , the baseball must look like a watermelon right now. On Tuesday night, Scott went 2-for-2 with two walks and two solo homers – both off of Zack Greinke. Since the start of May, Scott is batting .355 (16-for-45) with seven homers and 12 RBI. Now if the Orioles could just get somebody on base in front of him…

• Kurt Suzuki came through for the Athletics in his third game since returning from the DL, going 3-for-5 with two runs and two RBI Tuesday night against the Mariners. Expect the 26-year-old catcher to continue to build on his 2009 breakout campaign.

• Carlos Lee is finally showing signs of breaking free from his early-season slump, as the Astros’ slugger went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI Tuesday night. The long ball was his second in three games. Lee is now batting .201 with a ridiculously-low BABIP this season. (For more on Lee’s slow start, click here .)

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher of the day: Josh Johnson (W, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K)

• Josh Johnson continues to dominate opposing batters, as the 6-foot-7/250-pound right-hander tossed seven shutout innings against the Diamondbacks Tuesday night. He allowed just two hits and a pair of walks while fanning nine. Through nine starts (57 innings) this season, the 26-year-old boasts a 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 63/18 K/BB ratio.

• Homer Bailey followed up his four-hit shutout of the Pirates last week with another strong outing against a more formidable Milwaukee lineup on Tuesday. Bailey scattered four hits in seven innings while allowing two runs and two walks.

Although it seems like Bailey has been around forever, the Reds’ starter is still just 24 years old. As his strikeouts continue to pile up and his walk rate continues to decline, Bailey becomes more intriguing. He’ll get Cleveland and Houston in his next two starts.

• Who would’ve thought that through six and a half weeks, Carlos Silva would have the same record (5-0) as Tim Lincecum. Hopefully nobody, but that’s the case after Silva limited the Rockies to two runs on six hits and a walk in six innings Tuesday night. Through eight starts, the 31-year-old boasts a 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a stellar walk rate of 1.86.

Silva’s strand rate is a tad bit high and his BABIP is slightly below-average. Even so, his xFIP  suggests a regression in the near future. Silva will get the Rangers this weekend, a matchup that doesn’t bode well for him.

 

RELIEVERS

• Trevor Hoffman blew his fifth save of the season Tuesday, this one with a two-run ninth-inning lead against the Reds. The all-time saves leader has now allowed at least one run to score in eight of his 14 appearances this season, and his ERA has ballooned to 13.15.

After the game, Brewers’ manager Ken Macha vowed to speak with pitching coach Rick Peterson before making a decision on whether to remove Hoffman from the closer’s role.

Nothing is official yet, but Carlos Villanueva is the likely replacement should Hoffman be relieved of his ninth-inning duties. If you’re desperate for saves, Villanueva is worth a speculative look.

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17
May/10

Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight, May 16: What’s Wrong with Dan Haren?

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Game No. 24 on the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight trail featured a four-hit, two-homer game from an unsuspecting second baseman, and a rough outing from a usually dominant starter.

 

Game No. 24: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves

• Dan Haren was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits and three walks in four and one-third innings Sunday, marking the fourth time he’s given up four runs or more in a start this season. After nine starts, the 29-year-old has an uncharacteristic 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Despite his early struggles, there’s reason to buy low on the Diamondbacks’ ace. Haren’s strikeouts are actually up (9.35 K/9 this year, 7.68 career), though his walks are up just a bit as well (2.26 BB/9 in ‘10, 1.99 career). His current BABIP (.357) is the 15th highest among starters, and Haren’s left on-base rate (66.9 percent) is well below his career mark of 73.1 percent.

Perhaps most encouraging is Haren’s o-swing rate , which calculates the percentage of pitches an opposing batter swings at outside of the strike zone. Haren leads the league in this category , coaxing foolish swings on 36.2 percent of his pitches outside of the zone. Bottom line: His stuff is still among the nastiest in baseball.

• Tim Hudson opposed Haren on Sunday, pitching eight sparkling innings while allowing just one run on three hits and one walk. Through eight starts, Hudson boasts an impressive 4-1 record with a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His .224 BABIP, 84.8 percent LOB rate, and 4.38 xFIP, however, suggest the 34-year-old Tommy John survivor is an excellent sell-high option.

•Batting leadoff for the Braves, Martin Prado went 4-for-6 on Sunday with two runs, two homers, and three RBI. Prado’s pace has slowed a bit after a hot April (in which he hit .356), but the 26-year-old second baseman maintains a .323 batting average and has at least two hits in five of his last seven games. Capable of batting .300 with 15 homers and 90 runs, Prado is pushing for a top-10 spot among players at his position.

Other notes from around the league:

 

Hitters

Hitter of the day: Martin Prado (4-for-6, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI)

• Jose Bautista continues to rake it in, as he went 1-for-2 with a walk, two runs, and a solo homer on Sunday. The 29-year-old is batting .288 with six homers and 13 RBI in in 15 games this month. His season average (.241), however, puts a cap on his potential value.

The former Oriole, Devil Ray, Royal, and Pirate has never topped 16 homers in a single season, but already has 10 through 39 games, thanks to a FB rate and HR/FB rate well above his career averages. The plethora of long balls explains his low BABIP , suggesting the power will subside as this number evens out.

• Chris Coghlan whacked a three-run pinch-hit homer on Sunday, his second in three games. The struggling left fielder now has a hit in nine of his last 11 games, raising his batting average from .183 to .214 during that span. As Coghlan’s low BABIP evens out, his strikeouts should decline and the reigning N.L. Rookie of the Year will be on his way to living up to his .300 average, double-digit steals, and homers hype.

• Scott Rolen hasn’t topped 20 homers in a season since 2006, but appears to be well on his away after hitting his seventh in 33 games on Sunday. His current HR/FB rate of 17.1 percent, however, is unsustainable given his career mark of 11.2 percent. He’s worth an add in 14-team leagues given his home ballpark and the lineup he’s in, but is almost certain to hit the DL at some point this season.

• Russell Branyan went 1-for-4 with a homer on Sunday, his fourth in five games. His game is no secret—bunches of homers with a gut-wrenching average. If your team can withstand the ladder, he’s worth a look.

• Luke Scott went 3-for-4 with a solo homer on Sunday, as he continues to be one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the end of April. In 10 games this month, the 31-year-old is batting .333 with five homers and 10 RBI. His average should continue to rise with his low BABIP , but will eventually top out in the .260 range. He’s worth owning in all formats, at least until he cools off. 

 

Pitchers

Pitcher of the day: Joel Pineiro (W, CG, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 5 K)

• Joel Pineiro threw a complete game shutout against the Athletics on Sunday, yielding just four hits and a walk. Excluding his two horrific starts against New York and Detroit, the 31-year-old owns a 1.29 ERA in 41 and two-thirds innings. Despite this, he’s owned in only one-third of Yahoo! leagues. If the Angels’ starter is available in yours, he’s worth the add.

• Jake Westbrook picked up his second consecutive win on Sunday, tossing a complete game against Baltimore while allowing just one run. The 32-year-old scattered nine hits and walked only one, while fanning eight.

Westbrook missed most of 2008 and all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery, but appears to be working his way back to fantasy relevance. Through eight starts this year, he has a 4.13 xFIP . Like most Tommy John survivors, his control will come with time, meaning his current walk rate of 3.88 could drop closer to his career mark of 2.80, making him usable in fantasy leagues once again.

• Cliff Lee dazzled the Rays on Sunday, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings. He also fanned 10. Seattle’s stagnant offense, however, stuck Lee with the tough-luck loss. Through four starts (30 and one-third innings) this season, the 31-year-old southpaw owns a stellar 2.08 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a ridiculous 25/1 K/BB ratio.

 

Relievers

• Manuel Corpas picked up his second save in as many days against the Nationals on Sunday. Despite his struggles earlier this month, Corpas is the ninth-inning favorite for the next few weeks until Huston Street returns from the DL.

• J.C. Romero worked a perfect ninth to record his first save of the season for the Phillies on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The reigning N.L. Champs rested Contreras after pitching two consecutive days, but he (not Romero) remains the favorite for save until further notice.

 

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14
May/10

Fantasy Baseball Inbox: Week 7 Spot-Starters: Leake, Sheets, Holland or Chacin?

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Continuing our mailbox segment properly titled Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox, our Insider will answer a question posed by one of our loyal readers.

If you have a pressing question for the Insider, whether it be a trade proposal or a spot-start question, drop him a line: nick@fantasybaseballinsiders.com .

This week’s question: Looking ahead to week seven, who is the best option among the following starting pitchers? Mike Leake , (who I currently own) Ben Sheets , Derek Holland , or Jhoulys Chacin ?

– Mark (Chicago, IL)

Thanks for writing the Insider, Mark.

Of the four pitchers you mentioned, Mike Leake has been the best thus far. In six starts this season, he’s posted five quality starts and owns a sparkling 3.10 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

If we’re speaking solely on his week seven value, however, his one start at Atlanta (5/20) disqualifies him from the discussion.

In weekly leagues, Sheets, Holland, and Chacin owners have the benefit of two starts each.

Derek Holland pitched exceptionally well in his season debut against Oakland on Wednesday , tossing six shutout innings while striking out seven. He will face the Angels (5/17) and Cubs (5/22) next week, both in Arlington.

Angels’ regulars hit .300 (18-60) against Holland last season. The Cubs have yet to see the 23-year-old, but are hitting .279 (82-for-294) against southpaws in 2010. For these reasons, Holland probably isn’t your best bet.

Jhoulys Chacin opened the season with a 15 1/3 scoreless inning streak, but was rocked for six runs in five innings Thursday night against the Nationals .

The 22-year-old Chacin will pitch against the Cubs (5/18) and Royals  (5/23) next week, both on the road.

Young pitchers without much major-league experience are generally very inconsistent, making them poor spot-start options. Because we have limited history to judge Chacin’s worth, he’s probably not the best choice in week seven.

Ben Sheets ‘ 5.70 ERA through eight starts thus far is somewhat deceiving, as most of the damage against him has come in two starts at Toronto and Tampa Bay. In his six remaining outings, Sheets has posted five quality starts.

The 31-year-old will match up against the Mariners (5/18) and Giants (5/23) in week seven, both starts being in Oakland, where Sheets is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season.

Seattle regulars are 10-for-49 (.204) in their career against Sheets, though four of those hits have come off the bat of Ken Griffey Jr. Only five regulars on the Giants’ roster have seen Sheets, collecting a combined .260 (6-for-23) lifetime average.  

All signs point to Ben Sheets  as the best spot-start option in week seven. As tough as it may be to dump Leake (just for next week), it’s the right move. Scoop up Sheets and enjoy his two-start week!

Do you have a question for the Insider? Shoot him an e-mail: nick@fantasybaseballinsiders.com   

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14
May/10

2010 Projections: How Good Is Padres’ Pitcher Mat Latos?

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Padres’ hurler Mat Latos tossed a one-hit shutout against the Giants Thursday night, picking up his second win in as many starts. In his last 17 innings, the 22-year-old has allowed no runs on just three hits and zero walks.

In other words, he’s been flat out dominant. This sparks the question fantasy managers are asking today: Is Latos really this good?

The 2006 11th rounder signed as a draft-and-follow in the spring of ‘07. His right arm ranked as one of the best available in the ‘06 draft, but signability concerns, and character issues allowed the San Diego Padres to nab him.

Latos offers a mid-90’s fastball with ridiculous downhill plane thanks to his 6-foot-5 frame. Baseball America refers to it as, “at least a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale.” He also throws a “late-breaking slider, which features fierce two-plane movement.” Latos’ changeup is an evolving pitch that “shows promise.”

The biggest difference between this year and last, has been his ability to limit his walks. In 50 2/3 innings with the Padres in 2009, Latos posted a 4.09 BB/9. In 43 1/3 innings this season, that number has dropped to a minuscule 1.87. This coincides with his career minor league walk rate of 2.3.

Through seven starts thus far, Latos boasts a 3.32 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. These totals are aided by an unlikely .224 BABIP and 80.8 percent left on-base rate, but his 3.68 xFIP suggests his success will likely continue.

In fact, his ERA is a bit skewed. If you throw out Latos’ disastrous start against Florida three weeks ago, his season ERA would be a ridiculous 1.99.

With his next three scheduled starts coming against the Giants, Mariners, and Nationals, Latos is a must-start in all fantasy leagues.

While the Padres’ flame-thrower doesn’t get the same attention as other young guns such as Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, and David Price, he’s just as electric.

Given his home ballpark factors, Latos should post respectable ERA totals and a decent strikeout rate on his way to solidifying his position on the 2010 All-Breakout Team. The 150-inning limit he’s on this season, however, could hamper his fantasy value down the stretch.

FBI Forecast: 150 IP, 12 W, 120 K (7.2 K/9), 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

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